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The achievement of carbon neutrality requires a deep transformation of the Polish power sector. This paper analyses the impact of increased electricity generation from wind and solar technologies envisaged in the newest version of the Energy Policy of Poland until 2040 on the operation of dispatchable generators in 2030. The analysis was carried out using the Model of Economic Dispatch and Unit commitment for System Analysis (MEDUSA) model, which solves a mixed integer problem related to unit commitment and economic dispatch in electrical power production. At first, the model was validated based on the real operation data from 2018. Next, five scenarios were built to analyse the operation of the system in 2030. The overall result of the study is that the safest solution from the point of view of power system stability is to extend the decommissioning of coal units of 200 and 300 MW classes, to invest in renewable energy sources (RES) according to the energy policy, to build new gas power plants with the total capacity of ca. 4 GW, and to enforce Demand Side Management (DSM) programs for shifting the electrical load. The proposed framework for the optimization of power system planning helps to avoid wrong investment decisions that would have a negative impact on energy prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transformation towards climate-neutral energy systems is becoming a challenge worldwide. Most often, strategic planning for the mid- and long-term is tackled with the use of generation expansion optimization models, which have limited capabilities to track in detail power system operation. On the other hand, the unit commitment and economic dispatch models consider many technical constraints but are usually used for short-term planning. The methodological approach presented in this paper aims to improve the planning capabilities by the combination of generation expansion and short-term planning models into one modelling system. Two models were coupled, namely TIMES-PL and MEDUSA, to design a pathway to carbon neutrality in the Polish power system. Three energy scenarios elaborated in this work show that a 95 % reduction in carbon dioxide emissions from the public electricity and district heat production sectors is possible by 2050. The proposed approach improved the robustness of elaborated energy scenarios as in their first versions two of them turned out to be technically infeasible. Detail simulations of the system operation showed that load balancing is possible once 15–20 GW of electrical capacity is installed in dispatchable power generation technologies by 2050 in addition to energy storage and combined heat and power plants. • Generation expansion and operation planning models were coupled. • Scenarios toward carbon neutrality in a Polish coal-based power system were built. • Ignoring technical constraints leads to underestimating system's need for flexibility. • Model coupling improves the robustness of elaborated long-term energy scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]