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Low-carbon policies are essential for facilitating manufacturing industries' low-carbon transformation and achieving carbon neutrality in China. However, recent studies usually apply proxy variables to quantify policies, while composite indices of policy intensity measured by objectives and instruments focus more on the national level. It is deficient in direct and comprehensive quantification for low-carbon policies. Hence, having extended the meaning of policy intensity, this paper constructs a low-carbon policy intensity index quantified by policy level, objective and instrument via phrase-oriented NLP algorithm and text-based prompt learning. This process is based on the low-carbon policy inventory we built for China's manufacturing industries containing 7282 national-, provincial- and prefecture-level policies over 2007–2022. Lastly, we organize the dataset in two formats (.dta and.xlsx) for multidiscipline researchers. Apart from the inventory and intensity for each policy, the policy intensity is also aggregated to national-, provincial- and prefecture-level with sub-intensity for four objectives and three instruments. This dataset has potential uses for future studies by merging with macro and micro data related to low-carbon performances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We proposed an evolutionary general equilibrium framework on new technology diffusion and economic growth. • The framework can capture the nonlinear, path-dependent, and S-shaped technological diffusion process. • Impact of carbon pricing and life expectancy of coal-fired power is analyzed. • A well-designed policy can bring a win-win future for near-zero emissions of power sector and economic growth of china. • The framework may be insightful for developing the next-generation computable general equilibrium models on structural change of low-carbon technologies. The thorough transition of energy system is required to achieve the Paris Agreement goal. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are a common tool for estimating the energy transition pathway and the impact of low-carbon policies on economic growth. However, CGE models encounter challenges on modeling diffusion of new technologies. This study proposed a novel evolutionary dynamic general equilibrium model to capture the nonlinear, path-dependent and S-shaped technology diffusion process, and examined the low-carbon transition pathway of power sector and its impact on economic growth of China. We found that imposing a moderate carbon tax and avoiding the over-reliance on coal-fired power could achieve the near-zero emissions of power sector, avoid the large economic loss and hasten the economic growth in the long term. The evolutionary framework may be useful for developing the next-generation model, particularly for simulating the diffusion of new technologies, and their structural effects on economic dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Emissions trading systems (ETS) have been a widely-adopted policy instrument for global climate mitigation and a key choice in China's pledge for peaking emissions and carbon neutrality. Broader adoption and linkage of ETS programmes require a better understanding of whether, to what extent, and how existing regional programmes address carbon emissions at an aggregate level. Combining a synthetic control method and event studies, we adopt a comprehensive evaluation framework to investigate regional mitigation effects, pathways, and ancillary impacts in three Chinese regions with four independent pilot ETS programmes. The findings show economy-wide responses to pilot announcement even in non-ETS sectors, but enduring mitigation only within ETS sectors. Mitigation was achieved via improvement in energy efficiency and fuel switch, without impairing industrial activities. There were local air-pollution reduction co-benefits but no leakage or spillover. Bounded extrapolation from the pilots suggests 18%–20% reductions can be achieved in non-pilot regions by a national market, which could learn from pilots' experiences to broaden sector coverage and ensure policy consistency and transparency. Regional ETS were able to stabilize emissions with little cost, providing rationale for rapidly developing economies to adopt such systems. Key policy insights Despite being unlinked, regional ETS pilots delivered substantial climate mitigation and local air pollution reduction in China. Policy effects were initially driven by economy-wide mitigation due to policy expectations, followed by ETS-sector mitigation due to carbon pricing. Industries reduced CO2 emissions from energy efficiency improvements and fuel switch. Mitigation was accompanied by little emission leakage or impairment to the economy. Extrapolating mitigation rates in a national market suggests 18%–20% reduction of CO2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study contributes to the existing literature on economic impacts assessment of China's Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) by 2030. A dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of China that incorporates the technological details of the electricity sector is used in this study. Two main policy choices, including the renewable quota and the carbon market, are modeled to distinguish different pathways to INDC targets. Results show several important findings. First, the total economic cost required to achieve China's INDC targets ranges from 0.11% to 0.43% of GDP by 2030. Second, energy sectors such as the coal mining and electric power sectors are the most affected by China's INDC in terms of both sectoral production and price. This study further indicates that the implementation of a national carbon market is efficient in reducing the compliance costs of INDC targets, while the deployment of renewable power helps to create employment opportunities and reduce permit prices in the carbon market. In addition, the results of a cost-benefit analysis suggest that the hidden health benefits of China's INDC can offset approximately 42.1–162.3% of the compliance costs, even based on the most conservative estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is an attractive option to help reduce China's carbon emission. This paper analyzes the impacts of subsidy for electricity generation on CCS retrofitting investment and carbon abatement in China's coal power plants, considering the coaction of carbon market and subsidy policy. To this end, this paper builds up a real option model, considering carbon prices, electricity prices and coal prices' uncertainties. For decision of CCS investment, we consider two important aspects: whether to invest and when to invest, i.e. CCS investment's potential and timing. Some major findings include: 1) The impacts of subsidy on CCS investment and carbon abatement are affected by carbon market conditions: initial carbon price can determine the magnitude of subsidy's impacts, while carbon prices' uncertainty level can determine subsidy's marginal impacts. 2) Subsidy from $0.01 to $0.05/kWh can raise CCS investment potential by 9.66%–39.18%, shorten CCS investment period by 0.39–1.95 years and bring carbon abatement potential of 0.10–1.89 GtCO 2 , considering different carbon market conditions. 3) With the benchmark carbon market and affordable subsidies, triggered CCS investments in coal power plants have an economical-efficient carbon abatement potential up to 20% of China's carbon emission in 2030. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Pricing carbon without recycling revenue decreases GDP and increases inequality. • Recycling carbon revenue with a uniform tax return rate widens the income gap. • Recycling revenue with a progressive one-step tax return narrows the income gap. • Two-step schemes via general transfer payment distort the primary distribution. • Progressively recycling enhances redistributive effects mainly via vertical effect. Carbon pricing policies are effective tools for mitigating carbon emissions; however, they also alter income distributions. Progressive individual income tax systems help redistribute income and reduce inequality. This paper evaluates the effects of carbon pricing policies and revenue recycling schemes on inequality and assesses the redistributive effects of individual income tax. We adopt a dynamic multi-regional CGE model and extend it in terms of the labor supply, tax revenue, and government expenditures. We obtain several key findings. Carbon pricing without revenue recycling increased income inequality, and the Gini coefficient was 0.59% and 1.88% higher than the benchmark in 2030 and 2040, respectively. When the revenue was recycled via individual income tax returns, the proportional recycling scheme, i.e., all income groups had the same tax return rate, continued to widen the income gap. The progressive recycling scheme, i.e., lower income groups received higher tax return rates, narrowed the income gap by reducing distortions in the economy and enhancing the redistributive effects of individual income taxes. The Gini coefficient was 0.34% and 0.71% lower than the benchmark in 2030 and 2040, respectively. If the central government allocated the carbon revenue to the local governments via general transfer payments, the redistributive effect was magnified, but a pronounced economic distortion widened the income gap. If the tax return rates were categorized by labor groups, the pronounced vertical effect of the redistributive effect benefited income equality most, while the reranking effect weakened that benefit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study estimates the effect of carbon pricing for CO 2 mitigation in China’s cement industry. The statistics and prediction show that cement production initially experienced accelerated growth and is now expected to plateau out over the next few years. The energy saving and carbon mitigation technologies considered in this estimation are at different adoption stages. Full technology diffusion is expected within 10–20 years, and the remaining technology mitigation potential stands at about 8.8% by 2025 and 10.2% by 2030. Nevertheless, attaching a price to carbon would have a limited effect. Reductions of 9.9 and 12.9 Mt-CO 2 might have been realised in 2015 under respective prices of 60 and 100 Yuan/t-CO 2 , compared to a non-pricing scenario. The reduction attributed to carbon pricing would be around 4.9 Mt-CO 2 in 2020 at both price levels, and around 70% of the mitigation may be at a marginal cost of 50 Yuan/t-CO 2 by 2020. The marginal cost for nearly 90% of the policy mitigation would be below 100 Yuan/t-CO 2 by 2030. This paper confirms the effectiveness of a command-and-control approach so far for energy saving in China’s cement industry and advises early introduction of a carbon pricing regime with consideration of policy interactions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Emission reduction from the coal power sector is vital for achieving carbon mitigation targets in China. In this study, we explore feasible pathways and economic cost of power system transition under different policy combination scenarios. We use a high-resolution power system model which is coupled with capacity planning and operation simulation to project the transition. We find that: (1) Without other policies, the single carbon market policy will lead to a potential rebound in emissions during the transition of the power industry. After 2045, a reduction in the proportion of free quotas and an increase in emission cost will enhance the emission reduction effectiveness of the market. (2) When policy measures are not sufficiently robust, even with a high proportion (80%) of renewable energy deployment requirement, there is a risk of rebound in coal power investments and subsequent emissions after 2050. (3) The achievement of carbon neutrality can only be realized by constraining the carbon budget within the boundaries of climate goals and other policy constraints. And carbon neutrality, compared to a high proportion (90%) of clean energy constraints, would increase total costs by at least 6%. • A high-resolution power system model is employed. • Rebound risk in coal power investments occurs due to less stringent policies. • The administrative orders have a higher emission reduction effect. • Varying free-quota ratios and emission cost can effectively prevent CO 2 rebound. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Article 6 of the Paris Agreement enables Parties to achieve their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) through direct cooperation or Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes (ITMO). Current researches on Article 6 are mostly based on the assumption of unlimited global carbon market link, which may lead to large price volatility and cause concern of policy makers. In order to investigate the impact of inter-regional carbon market link mechanism on global climate action, here, we designed carbon market link scenarios with different degrees of trading volume limits. We simulated the global and regional carbon markets under different scenarios from 2025 to 2060 using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). The findings suggest that as the link limit tightens, both the price volatility of global carbon market and the cumulative mitigation costs saved by carbon market links decrease, which reminds policy makers of the trade-off between economic efficiency and price volatility. The price volatility under the unlimited global carbon market scenario is about 30% higher than that with link limits implemented, while the unlimited market would also save about 0.83 trillion dollars abatement costs than the limited scenario. At the national level, a total of 14 regions are limited in different link limit scenarios, among which China, the United States, EU and India are the most sensitive regions to link limits. Based on the scenario results, we discuss the design of international carbon market link mechanisms, such as absolute link limits and relative link limits. • A trade-off between economic efficiency and price volatility under link limit. • A total of 14 regions are limited in the limit scenarios. • China, U.S., EU and India are the most sensitive regions to link limits. • Regional heterogeneity in sensitivity to absolute and relative limit mechanisms. • The direction of the financial flows remains unchanged with link limits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]