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Purpose: To develop machine learning (ML) and multivariable regression models to predict ipsilateral breast event (IBE) risk after ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) treatment., Methods: A retrospective investigation was conducted of patients diagnosed with DCIS from 2007 to 2014 who were followed for a minimum of five years after treatment. Data about each patient were extracted from the medical records. Two ML models (penalized logistic regression and random forest) and a multivariable logistic regression model were developed to evaluate recurrence-related variables., Results: 650 women (mean age 56 years, range 27-87 years) underwent treatment for DCIS and were followed for at least five years after treatment (mean 8.0 years). 5.5% (n = 36) experienced an IBE. With multivariable analysis, the variables associated with higher IBE risk were younger age (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.96, p = 0.02), dense breasts at mammography (aOR 3.02, p = 0.02), and < 5 years of endocrine therapy (aOR 4.48, p = 0.02). The multivariable regression model to predict IBE risk achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.75 (95% CI 0.67-0.84). The penalized logistic regression and random forest models achieved mean AUCs of 0.52 (95% CI 0.42-0.61) and 0.54 (95% CI 0.43-0.65), respectively., Conclusion: Variables associated with higher IBE risk after DCIS treatment include younger age, dense breasts, and <5 years of adjuvant endocrine therapy. The multivariable logistic regression model attained the highest AUC (0.75), suggesting that regression models have a critical role in risk prediction for patients with DCIS., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare the following financial interests/personal relationships which may be considered as potential competing interests: Dr. Manisha Bahl is a consultant for Lunit (medical AI software company) and an expert panelist for 2nd.MD (digital health company). These relationships are not directly relevant to the submitted work. There are no other disclosures., (Copyright © 2022 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Purpose: Patients who have ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) are undergoing bilateral mastectomy at increasing rates. One of the reasons is to minimize contralateral breast cancer (CBC) risk. The purpose of this study is to determine the rate of and risk factors associated with CBC in women treated for DCIS., Methods: A retrospective study was performed of women with DCIS at surgery from 2007 to 2014 who had at least five-year follow-up. Patient attributes, imaging findings, histopathology results, and surgical and long-term outcomes were collected. Features associated with a CBC were assessed with multivariable logistic regression models., Results: 613 women (mean 56 years, range 30-87) with DCIS underwent breast-conserving surgery (BCS) (n = 426), unilateral mastectomy (n = 101), or bilateral mastectomy (n = 86), with mean follow-up of 7.9 years. Of the 527 women who had BCS or unilateral mastectomy, 7.4% (n = 39) developed a CBC (DCIS in 12 and invasive cancer in 27). 4.1% (5/122) of women treated with adjuvant endocrine therapy developed a CBC, compared to 8.4% (34/405) who were not treated (p = .11). Features associated with CBC risk were younger age at menarche (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] of 0.76, p = .03) and low nuclear grade of DCIS (aOR of 5.43 for grade 1 versus 3, p = .01)., Conclusion: In women treated for DCIS, the overall rate of CBC was low at 7.4%. Younger age at menarche and low nuclear grade of DCIS had significant associations with higher CBC risk., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Purpose: To estimate the upstaging risk of symptomatic ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) to invasive disease and to identify features related to upstaging risk., Materials and Methods: This retrospective investigation includes symptomatic women with DCIS at core needle biopsy from January 2007 to December 2016 at a large academic institution. Patient characteristics, findings at imaging, core needle biopsy histopathology results, and final surgical histopathology results were retrieved from the medical records. Using standard statistical tests, patient, imaging, and pathology features were compared between DCIS cases that were upstaged to invasive disease at surgery versus cases that were not upstaged., Results: From 2007 to 2016, fewer than 5% (63/1399) of women diagnosed with DCIS presented with symptoms. Therefore, 63 women (mean age, 51; range, 27-88 years) comprised the study cohort. 84.1% (n = 53) presented with an area of clinical concern, and 15.9% (n = 10) presented with pathologic nipple discharge. The most common finding at mammography was calcifications with or without an associated asymmetry or mass (74.1%, 40/54). The upstaging rate of symptomatic DCIS to invasive disease was 34.9% (22/63). Imaging modality used for biopsy was associated with higher upstaging risk, with cases that were biopsied under MRI guidance accounting for 22.7% of upstaged cases versus 4.9% of non-upstaged cases (p = 0.03)., Conclusions: Women with DCIS uncommonly present with symptoms, and the upstaging rate of symptomatic DCIS is high at nearly 35%. Biopsy modality type of MRI is associated with higher upstaging risk., (Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Reexcision following breast-conserving surgery (BCS) in women with ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) results in adjuvant treatment delays, higher health care costs, and undesirable cosmetic outcomes. The purpose of this study is to determine patient, imaging, pathological, and surgical predictors of reexcision following BCS for DCIS., Patients and Methods: A retrospective review of women with DCIS who had BCS from 2007 to 2016 was conducted. Patient, imaging, pathological, and surgical features, in addition to surgical outcomes, were collected from medical records. Standard statistical tests were used to compare features between patients who did and did not undergo at least one reexcision. A multivariable logistic regression model was fit to assess features associated with reexcision., Results: A total of 547 women (mean age 59 years; range 30-88 years) diagnosed with DCIS at core needle biopsy underwent BCS. Of all women, 31.6% (173/547) had at least one reexcision. With multivariable analysis, features associated with reexcision included younger patient age (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.98, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.97-1.0, p = 0.049), African-American race (aOR 2.66, 95% CI 1.13-6.26, p = 0.03), biopsy modality of ultrasound (aOR 2.35, 95% CI 1.22-4.53, p = 0.01), and earlier year of surgery (aOR 0.92, 95% CI 0.86-0.98, p = 0.01). No pathological features of DCIS were associated with reexcision risk., Conclusions: In our cohort of nearly 550 women with DCIS who underwent BCS, 31.6% had at least one reexcision. Features associated with reexcision include younger patient age, African-American race, biopsy modality of ultrasound, and earlier year of surgery.

Rationale and Objectives: To determine the upgrade rate of noncalcified ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) and features that are associated with risk of upgrade to invasive disease at surgery., Materials and Methods: A retrospective review was conducted of consecutive women who were diagnosed with noncalcified DCIS from January 2007 to December 2016. Patient demographics, imaging findings, biopsy pathology results, and surgical outcomes were reviewed. The unpaired t test, chi-square test, and Fisher's exact test were used to compare features between the cases of DCIS that did and did not upgrade to invasive carcinoma at surgery., Results: Over a 10-year period, 78 women (mean age 62 years, range 30-88 years) were diagnosed with noncalcified DCIS. Two-thirds (67.9%, 53/78) of cases were detected on screening mammography, and 15.4% (12/78) of diagnoses were made after presentation with an area of palpable concern. The most common mammographic presentations of noncalcified DCIS were mass (51.3%, 40/78) and asymmetry (30.8%, 24/78). Seventeen cases (21.8%, 17/78) were upgraded to invasive ductal carcinoma (IDC) at surgery. Features associated with upgrade risk included older patient age (68.1 versus 60.3 years, OR 1.08, p < 0.01) and family history of breast cancer in a first-degree relative (41.2% [7/17] versus 16.4% [10/61], OR 3.57, p = 0.03)., Conclusion: In our study cohort, the upgrade rate of noncalcified DCIS to IDC at surgery is 21.8%. Upgrade risk is associated with older patient age and family history of breast cancer in a first-degree relative., (Copyright © 2020 The Association of University Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Clinical trials are currently ongoing to determine the safety and efficacy of active surveillance (AS) versus usual care (surgical and radiation treatment) for women with ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS). This study aimed to determine upgrade rates of DCIS at needle biopsy to invasive carcinoma at surgery among women who meet the eligibility criteria for AS trials., Methods: A retrospective review was performed of consecutive women at an academic medical center with a diagnosis of DCIS at needle biopsy from 2007 to 2016. Medical records were reviewed for mode of presentation, imaging findings, biopsy pathology results, and surgical outcomes. Each patient with DCIS was evaluated for AS trial eligibility based on published criteria for the COMET, LORD, and LORIS trials., Results: During a 10-year period, DCIS was diagnosed in 858 women (mean age 58 years; range 28-89 years). Of the 858 women, 498 (58%) were eligible for the COMET trial, 101 (11.8%) for the LORD trial, and 343 (40%) for the LORIS trial. The rates of upgrade to invasive carcinoma were 12% (60/498) for the COMET trial, 5% (5/101) for the LORD trial, and 11.1% (38/343) for the LORIS trial. The invasive carcinomas ranged from 0.2 to 20 mm, and all were node-negative., Conclusions: Women who meet the eligibility criteria for DCIS AS trials remain at risk for occult invasive carcinoma at presentation, with upgrade rates ranging from 5 to 12%. These findings suggest that more precise criteria are needed to ensure that women with invasive carcinoma are excluded from AS trials.

Rationale and Objectives: To determine the upgrade rate of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-detected ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) and to identify patient, imaging, and pathologic features that may predict the risk of upgrade., Materials and Methods: Medical chart review from January 2007 to December 2016 identified 60 patients with 61 cases of MRI-detected DCIS and negative mammographic evaluations within 1 year prior to the MRI. Imaging and pathology reports were reviewed. Standard statistical tests, including Student's t-tests and chi-square tests, were used to compare patient, imaging, and pathologic features between the cases of DCIS that did and did not upgrade to invasive carcinoma at surgery., Results: Over a 10-year period, 60 patients (mean age 52 years, range 30-76 years) were diagnosed with 61 cases of MRI-detected DCIS. Two-thirds of DCIS cases were detected on MRI examinations that were performed for purposes of high-risk screening (67.2%, 41/61). MRI features that led to the DCIS diagnosis were nonmass enhancement in 78.7% (48/61), enhancing mass in 16.4% (10/61), nonmass enhancement and enhancing mass in 3.3% (2/61), and enhancing focus in 1.6% (1/61). Thirteen cases (21.3%, 13/61) were upgraded to invasive ductal carcinoma at surgery. DCIS cases that upgraded were larger on MRI (40 mm vs 17 mm, p < 0.01) and more likely to be associated with comedonecrosis at biopsy (38.5% [5/13] vs 6.3% [3/48], p < 0.01)., Conclusion: The upgrade rate of MRI-detected DCIS to invasive ductal carcinoma at surgery is 21.3%. Features that are associated with upgrade include large size on MRI and the presence of comedonecrosis at biopsy., (Copyright © 2019 The Association of University Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Increased use of contralateral prophylactic mastectomy (CPM) as treatment for ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) in the US was first noted in the early 2000s. Optimization of treatment guidelines for DCIS requires an understanding of current surgical treatment trends, particularly as they may differ by patient sociodemographic and community resource factors., Objective: The aim of this study was to evaluate surgical treatment trends among US women with DCIS and to assess the impact of sociodemographic and community resource factors on surgical treatment choice., Methods: The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results dataset was queried for women aged 40 years and older who were diagnosed with unilateral DCIS between 2000 and 2014. Annual mastectomy rates were compared over time by age and race/ethnicity. Multivariable logistic regressions were performed to identify predictors of mastectomy use, with patient sociodemographics, tumor characteristics, and community resource factors (i.e. plastic surgeon density) as covariates., Results: A total of 130,731 women with DCIS met the inclusion criteria. Overall mastectomy rates remained relatively unchanged over the study period (25-30%). CPM use increased for all age and race/ethnic groups, with the greatest increase exhibited by women aged 40-49 years [relative to 2000; 2014 odds ratio (OR) 10.6]. With respect to community resource factors, CPM use, as opposed to unilateral mastectomy, was associated with counties of higher education level (OR 1.52), higher income level (OR 1.22), and lower plastic surgeon density (OR 1.26)., Conclusion and Relevance: While the popularity of mastectomy in the management of DCIS has remained relatively unchanged since the turn of the century, the use of CPM has risen substantially. Younger women with DCIS have seen the greatest increase in CPM use, a choice that remains influenced by race/ethnicity as well as income, education, and health resource availability. Until clinical risk stratifiers of DCIS are identified, the surgical decision-making paradigm must be improved so that treatment choice remains sensitive to cultural differences but becomes independent of income, education, and health resource availability.

Background: The rising incidence of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) since the widespread enactment of mammography screening has been well documented. Patterns in DCIS incidence among women of various ages and across different racial and ethnic groups have not been well described., Study Design: The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results public-use data set was queried for all women aged 40 years and older diagnosed with DCIS between 1990 and 2014. Annual age-adjusted incidence rates were compared among white, black, Hispanic, and Asian-Pacific Islander women. Additionally, using mammography screening data obtained from the CDC, patterns in mammography screening over time and as they relate to DCIS incidence rates by race and ethnicity were evaluated., Results: We identified 200,400 women aged 40 years or older with DCIS. Between 1998 and 2014, a period that saw flux in national breast screening guidelines, DCIS incidence rates increased in blacks, Hispanics, and Asian-Pacific Islanders, but remained relatively unchanged in whites (increase in number of DCIS diagnoses per 100,000 individuals in the population per year among blacks +0.66/p < 0.01, Hispanics +3.0/p < 0.01, Asian-Pacific Islanders +0.53/p < 0.01, and whites +0.07/p = 0.21). After accounting for age, year of diagnosis, and mammography screening rates, DCIS incidence was found to be similar between white and black women (0.8 fewer diagnoses per 100,000 individuals compared with whites; p = 0.36) but lower for Hispanic women (9.7 fewer diagnoses per 100,000 individuals compared with whites; p < 0.01)., Conclusions: The DCIS incidence rates are influenced substantially by breast cancer mammography screening patterns. However, differences exist by race and ethnicity and are not fully explained by screening mammography trends alone. Consideration should be given to including race and ethnicity in determining optimal breast screening guidelines., (Copyright © 2019 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)