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Background: Prediction of lifetime cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk is recommended in many clinical guidelines, but lifetime risk models are rarely externally validated. The aim of this study was to externally validate the QRiskLifetime incident CVD risk prediction tool., Methods: Independent external validation of QRiskLifetime using Clinical Practice Research Datalink data, examining discrimination and calibration in the whole population and stratified by age, and reclassification compared to QRISK3. Since lifetime CVD risk is unobservable, performance was evaluated at 10-years' follow-up, and lifetime performance inferred in terms of performance for in the different age-groups from which lifetime predictions are derived., Results: One million, two hundreds sixty thousand and three hundreds twenty nine women and 1,223,265 men were included in the analysis. Discrimination was excellent in the whole population (Harrell's-C = 0.844 in women, 0.808 in men), but moderate to poor stratified by age-group (Harrell's C in people aged 30-44 0.714 for both men and women, in people aged 75-84 0.578 in women and 0.556 in men). Ten-year CVD risk was under-predicted in the whole population, and in all age-groups except women aged 45-64, with worse under-prediction in older age-groups. Compared to those at highest QRISK3 estimated 10-year risk, those with highest lifetime risk were younger (mean age: women 50.5 vs. 71.3 years; men 46.3 vs. 63.8 years) and had lower systolic blood pressure and prevalence of treated hypertension, but had more family history of premature CVD, and were more commonly minority ethnic. Over 10-years, the estimated number needed to treat (NNT) with a statin to prevent one CVD event in people with QRISK3 ≥ 10% was 34 in women and 37 in men, compared to 99 and 100 for those at highest lifetime risk., Conclusions: QRiskLifetime underpredicts 10-year CVD risk in nearly all age-groups, so is likely to also underpredict lifetime risk. Treatment based on lifetime risk has considerably lower medium-term benefit than treatment based on 10-year risk., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Background: Recommended cardiovascular disease (CVD) prediction tools do not account for competing mortality risk and over-predict incident CVD in older and multimorbid people. The aim of this study was to derive and validate a competing risk model (CRISK) to predict incident CVD and compare its performance to that of QRISK3 in UK primary care., Methods: We used UK linked primary care data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) GOLD to identify people aged 25-84 years with no previous CVD or statin treatment split into derivation and validation cohorts. In the derivation cohort, we derived models using the same covariates as QRISK3 with Fine-Gray competing risk modelling alone (CRISK) and with Charlson Comorbidity score (CRISK-CCI) as an additional predictor of non-CVD death. In a separate validation cohort, we examined discrimination and calibration compared to QRISK3. Reclassification analysis examined the number of patients recommended for treatment and the estimated number needed to treat (NNT) to prevent a new CVD event., Results: The derivation and validation cohorts included 989,732 and 494,865 women and 946,784 and 473,392 men respectively. Overall discrimination of CRISK and CRISK-CCI were excellent and similar to QRISK3 (for women, C-statistic = 0.863/0.864/0.863 respectively; for men 0.833/0.819/0.832 respectively). CRISK and CRISK-CCI calibration overall and in younger people was excellent. CRISK over-predicted in older and multimorbid people although performed better than QRISK3, whilst CRISK-CCI performed the best. The proportion of people reclassified by CRISK-CCI varied by QRISK3 risk score category, with 0.7-9.7% of women and 2.8-25.2% of men reclassified as higher risk and 21.0-69.1% of women and 27.1-57.4% of men reclassified as lower risk. Overall, CRISK-CCI recommended fewer people for treatment and had a lower estimated NNT at 10% risk threshold. Patients reclassified as higher risk were younger, had lower SBP and higher BMI, and were more likely to smoke., Conclusions: CRISK and CRISK-CCI performed better than QRISK3. CRISK-CCI recommends fewer people for treatment and has a lower NNT to prevent a new CVD event compared to QRISK3. Competing risk models should be recommended for CVD primary prevention treatment recommendations., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Background: Primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is guided by risk-prediction tools, but these rarely account for the risk of dying from other conditions (ie, competing mortality risk). In England and Wales, the recommended risk-prediction tool is QRISK2, and a new version (QRISK3) has been derived and internally validated. We aimed to externally validate QRISK3 and to assess the effects of competing mortality risk on its predictive performance., Methods: For this retrospective population cohort study, we used data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. We included patients aged 25-84 years with no previous history of CVD or statin treatment who were permanently registered with a primary care practice, had up-to-standard data for at least 1 year, and had linkage to Hospital Episode Statistics discharge and Office of National Statistics mortality data. We compared the QRISK3-predicted 10-year CVD risk with the observed 10-year risk in the whole population and in important subgroups of age and multimorbidity. QRISK3 discrimination and calibration were examined with and without accounting for competing risks., Findings: Our study population included 1 484 597 women with 42 451 incident CVD events (4·9 cases per 1000 person-years of follow-up, 95% CI 4·89-4·99), and 1 420 176 men with 53 066 incident CVD events (6·7 cases per 1000 person-years, 6·66-6·78), with median follow-up of 5·0 years (IQR 1·9-9·2). Non-CVD death rose markedly with age (0·4% of women and 0·5% of men aged 25-44 years had a non-CVD death vs 20·1% of women and 19·6% of men aged 75-84 years). QRISK3 discrimination in the whole population was excellent (Harrell's C-statistic 0·865 in women and 0·834 in men) but was poor in older age groups (<0·65 in all subgroups aged 65 years or older). Ignoring competing risks, QRISK3 calibration in the whole population and in younger people was excellent, but there was significant over-prediction in older people. Accounting for competing risks, QRISK3 systematically over-predicted CVD risk, particularly in older people and in those with high multimorbidity., Interpretation: QRISK3 performed well at the whole population level when ignoring competing mortality risk. The tool performed considerably less well in important subgroups, including older people and people with multimorbidity, and less well again after accounting for competing mortality risk., Funding: National Institute for Health Research., Competing Interests: PTD reports a grant from AbbVie, outside the submitted work, and is a member of the NHS Scottish Medicines Consortium. J-HY is currently employed by ICON PLC Clinical Research. DRM reports grants from the Chief Scientist Office, Health Data Research UK, and National Institute for Health Research, outside the submitted work. All other authors declare no competing interests., (© 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license.)

Background: E-cigarette (EC) use is increasing exponentially worldwide. The early cardiovascular effects of switching from tobacco cigarettes (TC) to EC in chronic smokers is unknown. Meta-analysis of flow-mediated dilation (FMD) studies indicate 13% lower pooled, adjusted relative risks of cardiovascular events with every 1% improvement in FMD., Objectives: This study sought to determine the early vascular impact of switching from TC to EC in chronic smokers., Methods: The authors conducted a prospective, randomized control trial with a parallel nonrandomized preference cohort and blinded endpoint of smokers ≥18 years of age who had smoked ≥15 cigarettes/day for ≥2 years and were free from established cardiovascular disease. Participants were randomized to EC with nicotine or EC without nicotine for 1 month. Those unwilling to quit continued with TC in a parallel preference arm. A propensity score analysis was done to adjust for differences between the randomized and preference arms. Vascular function was assessed by FMD and pulse wave velocity. Compliance with EC was measured by carbon monoxide levels., Results: Within 1 month of switching from TC to EC, there was a significant improvement in endothelial function (linear trend β = 0.73%; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.41 to 1.05; p < 0.0001; TC vs. EC combined: 1.49%; 95% CI: 0.93 to 2.04; p < 0.0001) and vascular stiffness (-0.529 m/s; 95% CI: -0.946 to -0.112; p = 0.014). Females benefited from switching more than males did in every between-group comparison. Those who complied best with EC switch demonstrated the largest improvement. There was no difference in vascular effects between EC with and without nicotine within the study timeframe., Conclusions: TC smokers, particularly females, demonstrate significant improvement in vascular health within 1 month of switching from TC to EC. Switching from TC to EC may be considered a harms reduction measure. (Vascular Effects of Regular Cigarettes Versus Electronic Cigarette Use [VESUVIUS]; NCT02878421; ISRCTN59133298)., (Copyright © 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a common comorbidity in people with asthma. However, safety concerns have caused heterogeneity in clinical guideline recommendations over the use of cardioselective beta-blockers in people with asthma and CVD, partly because risk in the general population has been poorly quantified. The aim of this study was to measure the risk of asthma exacerbations with beta-blockers prescribed to a general population with asthma and CVD., Methods: Linked data from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink was used to perform nested case-control studies among people with asthma and CVD matched on age, sex and calendar time. Adjusted incidence rate ratios (IRR) were calculated for the association between oral beta-blocker use and moderate asthma exacerbations (rescue oral steroids) or severe asthma exacerbations (hospitalisation or death) using conditional logistic regression., Results: The cohort consisted of 35,502 people identified with active asthma and CVD, of which 14.1% and 1.2% were prescribed cardioselective and non-selective beta-blockers, respectively, during follow-up. Cardioselective beta-blocker use was not associated with a significantly increased risk of moderate or severe asthma exacerbations. Consistent results were obtained following sensitivity analyses and a self-controlled case series approach. In contrast, non-selective beta-blockers were associated with a significantly increased risk of moderate asthma exacerbations when initiated at low to moderate doses (IRR 5.16, 95% CI 1.83-14.54, P = 0.002), and both moderate and severe exacerbations when prescribed chronically at high dose (IRR 2.68, 95% CI 1.08-6.64, P = 0.033 and IRR 12.11, 95% CI 1.02-144.11, P = 0.048, respectively)., Conclusions: Cardioselective beta-blockers prescribed to people with asthma and CVD were not associated with a significantly increased risk of moderate or severe asthma exacerbations and potentially could be used more widely when strongly indicated.

Objective This study aims to identify the best biochemical risk factors alongside other factors for predicting adverse outcomes seen in untreated primary hyperparathyroidism ( PHPT). Design Population-based cohort study, 1997-2006. Setting Tayside, Scotland, UK. Patients Patients with untreated diagnosed PHPT. Outcome measures and methods Outcomes considered were all-cause mortality, fatal and nonfatal cardiovascular disease ( CVD). Models were derived using survival analysis. Potential biochemical predictors tested were baseline serum calcium, parathyroid hormone ( PTH), creatinine and alkaline phosphatase ( ALP), and other covariates considered were gender, age at diagnosis, deprivation, previous comorbidities and bisphosphonates usage. Results From 1997 to 2006, 2097 patients (mean age, 68·4 years; 69·9% women) with untreated PHPT were identified with a total follow-up of 7338 person years, in the population of Tayside, Scotland. The median baseline calcium was 2·61 m m, and PTH was 7·2 p m. PTH was the only statistically significant risk factor in all outcomes observed adjusting for other covariates. Serum creatinine and ALP predicted mortality outcomes in the short term (≤3 years), but not long term. Calcium was associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality in the short term but had no significant impact on other outcomes. Conclusion Baseline PTH, rather than calcium, best predicts long-term outcomes in untreated PHPT. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary Primary hyperparathyroidism (PHPT) is a common incidental finding on routine biochemical testing, affecting around 1% of the population. The majority of individuals will be asymptomatic at diagnosis, with no evidence of end organ damage, and unless individuals aged <50 years at diagnosis, they are often considered to have 'mild' PHPT, as they do not meet published criteria for parathyroidectomy (PTX). However, there is increasing evidence that 'mild' PHPT is associated with adverse health outcomes. Long-term observational studies describing the natural history of 'mild' PHPT suggest that even though biochemistry may be relatively stable in the majority, bone mineral density (BMD) does decline after approximately 10 years of observation, whereas significant improvements in BMD are seen following PTX. Recent large European record linkage studies of 'mild PHPT' demonstrate significantly increased all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, similar to rates published for patients with PHPT who meet the NIH surgical criteria. 'Mild' PHPT was also associated with increased admissions for nonfatal cardiovascular disease, renal failure, renal stones, fractures, hypertension, psychiatric disease, cancer and diabetes, suggesting that 'insidious' PHPT may be a more appropriate description, or at least that the term 'mild' should be abandoned. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have begun to explore the benefits of PTX in this condition, demonstrating improvements in BMD and some psychiatric outcomes at approximately 2 years of follow-up. However, larger, adequately powered, long-term, RCTs will be required to determine whether PTX improves potential long-term morbidity and mortality in patients with PHPT who do not meet standard surgical criteria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective To describe mortality and disease-specific morbidities in patients with mild primary hyperparathyroidism (PHPT). Design Retrospective population-based observational study. Setting Tayside, Scotland, from 1997 to 2006. Participants Patients with mild PHPT were selected from a predefined PHPT cohort between 1997 and 2006. Main outcome measures Standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) were examined for all-cause mortality, as well as cardiovascular and cancer mortality. Standardised morbidity ratios and standardised incidence ratios were also calculated for eleven observed co-morbidities. Results In total, there were 1683 (69·1% female) patients identified with mild PHPT in Tayside. Patients were found to have an increased risk of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality (SMR-all cause 2·62, 95% CI 2·39–2·86; SMR-cardiovascular 2·68, 95% CI 2·34–3·05). Patients with mild PHPT had a significantly increased risk of developing cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease, renal dysfunction and fractures compared to the age- and sex-adjusted general population. Conclusions Mortality and morbidity were increased for patients with mild untreated PHPT, which is similar to more severe PHPT. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]