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Competing Interests: Competing interests: Interests were declared based on NICE’s policy on conflicts of interests (https://www.nice.org.uk/Media/Default/About/Who-we-are/Policies-and-procedures/declaration-of-interests-policy.pdf) and full statements are provided in the NICE guideline.

Competing Interests: Competing interests: Interests were declared based on NICE’s policy on conflicts of interests (https://www.nice.org.uk/Media/Default/About/Who-we-are/Policies-and-procedures/declaration-of-interests-policy.pdf) and full statements are provided in the NICE guideline.

Introduction: Older adults are more vulnerable to COVID-19 infections; however, little is known about which comorbidity patterns are related to a higher risk of COVID-19 infection. This study investigated the role of long-term conditions or comorbidity patterns on COVID-19 infection and related hospitalisations., Methods: This study included 4,428 individuals from Waves 8 (2016-2017) and 9 (2018-2019) of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) who also participated in the ELSA COVID-19 Substudy in 2020. Comorbidity patterns were identified using an agglomerative hierarchical clustering method. The relationships between comorbidity patterns or long-term conditions and COVID-19-related outcomes were examined using multivariable logistic regression., Results: Among a representative sample of community-dwelling older adults in England, those with cardiovascular disease (CVD) and complex comorbidities had an almost double risk of COVID-19 infection (OR = 1.87, 95% CI = 1.42-2.46) but not of COVID-19-related hospitalisation. A similar pattern was observed for the heterogeneous comorbidities cluster (OR = 1.56, 95% CI = 1.24-1.96). The individual investigations of long-term conditions with COVID-19 infection highlighted primary associations with CVD (OR = 1.46, 95% CI = 1.23-1.74), lung diseases (OR = 1.40, 95% CI = 1.17-1.69), psychiatric conditions (OR = 1.40, 95% CI = 1.16-1.68), retinopathy/eye diseases (OR = 1.39, 95% CI = 1.18-1.64), and arthritis (OR = 1.27, 95% CI = 1.09-1.48). In contrast, metabolic disorders and diagnosed diabetes were not associated with any COVID-19 outcomes., Conclusion: This study provides novel insights into the comorbidity patterns that are more vulnerable to COVID-19 infections and hospitalisations, highlighting the vulnerability of those with CVD and other complex comorbidities. These findings facilitate crucial new evidence that should be considered for appropriate screening measures and tailored interventions for older adults in the ongoing global outbreak., (© 2023 The Author(s). Published by S. Karger AG, Basel.)

Introduction: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality globally. With advances in early diagnosis and treatment of CVD and increasing life expectancy, more people are surviving initial CVD events. However, models for stratifying disease severity risk in patients with established CVD for effective secondary prevention strategies are inadequate. Multivariable prognostic models to stratify CVD risk may allow personalised treatment interventions. This review aims to systematically review the existing multivariable prognostic models for the recurrence of CVD or major adverse cardiovascular events in adults with established CVD diagnosis., Methods and Analysis: Bibliographic databases (Ovid MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO and Web of Science) will be searched, from database inception to April 2020, using terms relating to the clinical area and prognosis. A hand search of the reference lists of included studies will also be done to identify additional published studies. No restrictions on language of publications will be applied. Eligible studies present multivariable models (derived or validated) of adults (aged 16 years and over) with an established diagnosis of CVD, reporting at least one of the components of the primary outcome of major adverse cardiovascular events (defined as either coronary heart disease, stroke, peripheral artery disease, heart failure or CVD-related mortality). Reviewing will be done by two reviewers independently using the pre-defined criteria. Data will be extracted for included full-text articles. Risk of bias will be assessed using the Prediction model study Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST). Prognostic models will be summarised narratively. If a model is tested in multiple validation studies, the predictive performance will be summarised using a random-effects meta-analysis model to account for any between-study heterogeneity., Ethics and Dissemination: Ethics approval is not required. The results of this study will be submitted to relevant conferences for presentation and a peer-reviewed journal for publication., Prospero Registration Number: CRD42019149111., Competing Interests: Competing interests: NQ is a member of the most recent NICE Familial Hypercholesterolaemia and Lipid Modification Guideline Development Groups (CG71 and CG181). SFW is a member of the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) Independent Scientific Advisory Committee (ISAC). RKA currently holds an NIHR-SPCR funded studentship (2018–2021). SFW previously held an NIHR-SCPR career launching fellowship award (2015–2018)., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)

Introduction: Lung cancer screening (LCS) by low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) offers an opportunity to impact both lung cancer and coronary heart disease mortality through detection of coronary artery calcification (CAC). Here, we explore the value of CAC and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment in LCS participants in the Lung Screen Uptake Trial (LSUT)., Methods: In this cross-sectional study, current and ex-smokers aged 60-75 were invited to a 'lung health check'. Data collection included a CVD risk assessment enabling estimation of 10 year CVD risk using the QRISK2 score. Participants meeting the required lung cancer risk underwent an ungated, non-contrast LDCT. Descriptive data, bivariate associations and a multivariate analysis of predictors of statin use are presented., Results: Of 1005 individuals enrolled, 680 were included in the final analysis. 421 (61.9%) had CAC present and in 49 (7.2%), this was heavy. 668 (98%) of participants had a QRISK2≥10% and QRISK2 was positively associated with increasing CAC grade (OR 4.29 (CI 0.93 to 19.88) for QRISK2=10%-20% and 12.29 (CI 2.68 to 56.1) for QRISK2≥20% respectively). Of those who qualified for statin primary prevention (QRISK2≥10%), 56.8% did not report a history of statin use. In the multivariate analysis statin use was associated with age, body mass index and history of hypertension and diabetes., Conclusions: LCS offers an important opportunity for instituting CVD risk assessment in all LCS participants irrespective of the presence of LDCT-detected CAC. Further studies are needed to determine whether CAC could enhance uptake and adherence to primary preventative strategies., Competing Interests: Competing interests: SMJ, MR, JLD and CH are supported by funding for a large trial of low dose CT screening, called the ‘SUMMIT Study’ by GRAIL Inc. SQ collaborates on the SUMMIT study. SMJ has received honoraria from Astra Zeneca, BARD1 Bioscience and Achilles Therapeutics for being an Advisory Board Expert and travel to a US conference. SMJ receives grant funding from Owlstone for a separate research study and has a family member with a financial association with Astra Zeneca. MR has received travel funding for a conference from Takeda and an honorarium for speaking at educational meeting from Astra Zeneca. AN is a member of the Advisory Board for Aidence Artificial Intelligence. RS has received honoraria, consulting and speaker fees from Amgen, Sanofi and Bayer. SMJ, MR, JLD, CH, SQ, AN and RS perceive that these disclosures pose no academic conflict for this study. All other authors have no other competing interests to declare., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2019. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)

Background: Epidemiological studies show that high circulating cystatin C is associated with risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), independent of creatinine-based renal function measurements. It is unclear whether this relationship is causal, arises from residual confounding, and/or is a consequence of reverse causation., Objectives: The aim of this study was to use Mendelian randomization to investigate whether cystatin C is causally related to CVD in the general population., Methods: We incorporated participant data from 16 prospective cohorts (n = 76,481) with 37,126 measures of cystatin C and added genetic data from 43 studies (n = 252,216) with 63,292 CVD events. We used the common variant rs911119 in CST3 as an instrumental variable to investigate the causal role of cystatin C in CVD, including coronary heart disease, ischemic stroke, and heart failure., Results: Cystatin C concentrations were associated with CVD risk after adjusting for age, sex, and traditional risk factors (relative risk: 1.82 per doubling of cystatin C; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.56 to 2.13; p = 2.12 × 10(-14)). The minor allele of rs911119 was associated with decreased serum cystatin C (6.13% per allele; 95% CI: 5.75 to 6.50; p = 5.95 × 10(-211)), explaining 2.8% of the observed variation in cystatin C. Mendelian randomization analysis did not provide evidence for a causal role of cystatin C, with a causal relative risk for CVD of 1.00 per doubling cystatin C (95% CI: 0.82 to 1.22; p = 0.994), which was statistically different from the observational estimate (p = 1.6 × 10(-5)). A causal effect of cystatin C was not detected for any individual component of CVD., Conclusions: Mendelian randomization analyses did not support a causal role of cystatin C in the etiology of CVD. As such, therapeutics targeted at lowering circulating cystatin C are unlikely to be effective in preventing CVD., (Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Vitamin D deficiency, prevalent in 30-50% of adults in developed countries, is largely due to inadequate cutaneous production that results from decreased exposure to sunlight, and to a lesser degree from low dietary intake of vitamin D. Serum levels of 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25-OH D) <20 ng/mL indicate vitamin D deficiency and levels >30 ng/mL are considered optimal. While the endocrine functions of vitamin D related to bone metabolism and mineral ion homoeostasis have been extensively studied, robust epidemiological evidence also suggests a close association between vitamin D deficiency and cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Experimental studies have demonstrated novel actions of vitamin D metabolites on cardiomyocytes, and endothelial and vascular smooth muscle cells. Low 25-OH D levels are associated with left ventricular hypertrophy, vascular dysfunction, and renin-angiotensin system activation. Despite a large body of experimental, cross-sectional, and prospective evidence implicating vitamin D deficiency in the pathogenesis of cardiovascular disease, a causal relationship remains to be established. Moreover, the cardiovascular benefits of normalizing 25-OH D levels in those without renal disease or hyperparathyroidism have not been established, and questions of an epiphenomenon where vitamin D status merely reflects a classic risk burden have been raised. Randomized trials of vitamin D replacement employing cardiovascular endpoints will provide much needed evidence for determining its role in cardiovascular protection.

Objectives: This study sought to determine an aggregate, pathway-specific risk score for enhanced prediction of death and myocardial infarction (MI)., Background: Activation of inflammatory, coagulation, and cellular stress pathways contribute to atherosclerotic plaque rupture. We hypothesized that an aggregate risk score comprised of biomarkers involved in these different pathways-high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (CRP), fibrin degradation products (FDP), and heat shock protein 70 (HSP70) levels-would be a powerful predictor of death and MI., Methods: Serum levels of CRP, FDP, and HSP70 were measured in 3,415 consecutive patients with suspected or confirmed coronary artery disease (CAD) undergoing cardiac catheterization. Survival analyses were performed with models adjusted for established risk factors., Results: Median follow-up was 2.3 years. Hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause death and MI based on cutpoints were as follows: CRP ≥3.0 mg/l, HR: 1.61; HSP70 >0.625 ng/ml, HR; 2.26; and FDP ≥1.0 μg/ml, HR: 1.62 (p < 0.0001 for all). An aggregate biomarker score between 0 and 3 was calculated based on these cutpoints. Compared with the group with a 0 score, HRs for all-cause death and MI were 1.83, 3.46, and 4.99 for those with scores of 1, 2, and 3, respectively (p for each: <0.001). Annual event rates were 16.3% for the 4.2% of patients with a score of 3 compared with 2.4% in 36.4% of patients with a score of 0. The C statistic and net reclassification improved (p < 0.0001) with the addition of the biomarker score., Conclusions: An aggregate score based on serum levels of CRP, FDP, and HSP70 is a predictor of future risk of death and MI in patients with suspected or known CAD., (Copyright © 2013 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Compared with whites, black Americans suffer from a disproportionate burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD). We hypothesized that racial differences in the prevalence of CVD could be attributed, in part, to impaired vascular function in blacks after adjustment for differences in risk factor burden., Methods and Results: We assessed vascular function in 385 black and 470 white subjects (mean age, 48±11 years; 45% male). Using digital pulse amplitude tonometry (EndoPAT) we estimated the reactive hyperemia index (RHI), a measure of microvascular endothelial function, and peripheral augmentation index (PAT-AIx). Central augmentation index (C-AIx) and pulse-wave velocity (PWV) were measured as indices of wave reflections and arterial stiffness, respectively, using applanation tonometry (Sphygmocor). Compared with whites, blacks had lower RHI (2.1±0.6 versus 2.3±0.6, P<0.001), greater arterial wave reflections assessed as both PAT-AIx (20.4±21.5 versus 17.0±22.4, P=0.01) and CAIx (20.8±12.3 versus 17.5±13.3, P=0.001), and greater arterial stiffness, measured as PWV (7.4±1.6 versus 7.1±1.6 m/s, P=0.001). After adjustment for traditional CVD risk factors, black race remained a significant predictor of lower RHI and higher PAT-AIx and CAIx (all P<0.001) in all subjects and of higher PWV in men (P=0.01). Furthermore, these associations persisted in a subgroup analysis of "healthy" individuals free of CVD risk factors., Conclusion: Black race is associated with impaired microvascular vasodilatory function, and greater large arterial wave reflections and stiffness. Because impairment in these vascular indices may be associated with worse long-term outcomes, they may represent underlying mechanisms for the increased CVD risk in blacks.

Background: Classification schema such as metabolic syndrome may underestimate cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in African Americans, despite a higher burden of CVD in African Americans. Oxidative stress results from an imbalance of prooxidants and antioxidants and leads to endothelial dysfunction that promotes vascular inflammation and atherosclerosis. Aminothiol markers of oxidative stress are associated with CVD risk factors and metabolic syndrome; however, little is known about racial differences in levels of oxidative stress. We sought to investigate whether oxidative stress would be higher in African Americans compared to whites independently of traditional risk factor burden., Methods: We assessed oxidative stress in a biracial, community-based cohort. In 620 subjects (59% female, 52% African American) in the Morehouse and Emory Team up to Eliminate Health Disparities (META-Health) study, we measured plasma levels of glutathione, an intracellular antioxidant, and its redox potential as a ratio of reduced and oxidized glutathione (E(h) glutathione)., Results: African Americans had lower glutathione levels (P<0.001) compared to whites. There was a trend toward more oxidized E(h) glutathione (P = 0.07) in African Americans; however, this did not reach statistical significance. After adjustment for demographics and CVD risk factors, African-American race remained a significant correlate of lower glutathione levels (P<0.001) and a more oxidized E(h) glutathione (P = 0.04). After further adjustment for high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), glutathione remained significantly lower in African Americans (P = 0.001). African Americans with or without metabolic syndrome had lower glutathione levels compared to whites with or without metabolic syndrome, respectively (both P ≤ 0.001), and African Americans without metabolic syndrome had a more oxidized E(h) glutathione compared to whites without metabolic syndrome (P = 0.003)., Conclusions: African Americans have higher levels of oxidative stress than whites, even after adjustment for differences in CVD risk factors and inflammation. Racial differences in oxidative stress may play a key role in understanding observed racial disparities in CVD.

Objective: Evidence on sex differences in outcomes after developing coronary heart disease (CHD) has focused on recurrent CHD, all-cause mortality or revascularisation. We assessed sex disparities in subsequent major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in adults surviving their first-time CHD.Methods: Using a population-based cohort obtained from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD GOLD) linked to hospitalisation and death records in the UK, we identified 143 702 adults (aged ≥18 years) between 1 January 1998 and 31 December 2017 with no prior history of MACE. MACE outcome was a composite of recurrent CHD, stroke, peripheral vascular disease, heart failure and cardiovascular-related mortality. Multivariable models (Cox and competing risks regressions) were used to assess differences between sexes.Results: There were 143 702 adults with any incident CHD (either angina, myocardial infarction or coronary revascularisation). Women (n=63 078, 43.9%) were older than men (median age, 73 vs 66 years). First subsequent MACE outcome was observed in 91 706 (63.8%). Women had a significantly lower risk of MACE (hazard ratio (HR), 0.68 (95% CI 0.67 to 0.69); sub-hazard ratio (HRsd), 0.71 (0.70 to 0.72), respectively) and recurrent CHD (n=66 543, 46.3%) (HR, 0.60 (0.59 to 0.61); HRsd, 0.62 (0.61 to 0.63)) when compared with men after incident CHD. However, women had a significantly higher risk of stroke (n=5740, 4.0%) (HR, 1.26 (1.19 to 1.33); HRsd, 1.32 (1.25 to 1.39)), heart failure (n=7905, 5.5%) (HR, 1.09 (1.04 to 1.15); HRsd, 1.13 (1.07 to 1.18)) and all-cause mortality (n=29 503, 20.5%) (HR, 1.05 (1.02 to 1.07); HRsd, 1.11 (1.08 to 1.13)).Conclusions: After incident CHD, women have lower risk of composite MACE and recurrent CHD outcomes but higher risk of stroke, heart failure, and all-cause mortality compared with men. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: National electronic health records (EHR) are increasingly used for research but identifying disease cases is challenging due to differences in information captured between sources (e.g. primary and secondary care). Our objective was to provide a transparent, reproducible model for integrating these data using atrial fibrillation (AF), a chronic condition diagnosed and managed in multiple ways in different healthcare settings, as a case study. Methods: Potentially relevant codes for AF screening, diagnosis, and management were identified in four coding systems: Read (primary care diagnoses and procedures), British National Formulary (BNF; primary care prescriptions), ICD-10 (secondary care diagnoses) and OPCS-4 (secondary care procedures). From these we developed a phenotype algorithm via expert review and analysis of linked EHR data from 1998 to 2010 for a cohort of 2.14 million UK patients aged ≥30 years. The cohort was also used to evaluate the phenotype by examining associations between incident AF and known risk factors. Results: The phenotype algorithm incorporated 286 codes: 201 Read, 63 BNF, 18 ICD-10, and four OPCS-4. Incident AF diagnoses were recorded for 72,793 patients, but only 39.6% (N = 28,795) were recorded in primary care and secondary care. An additional 7,468 potential cases were inferred from data on treatment and pre-existing conditions. The proportion of cases identified from each source differed by diagnosis age; inferred diagnoses contributed a greater proportion of younger cases (≤60 years), while older patients (≥80 years) were mainly diagnosed in SC. Associations of risk factors (hypertension, myocardial infarction, heart failure) with incident AF defined using different EHR sources were comparable in magnitude to those from traditional consented cohorts. Conclusions: A single EHR source is not sufficient to identify all patients, nor will it provide a representative sample. Combining multiple data sources and integrating information on treatment and comorbid conditions can substantially improve case identification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BackgroundGenome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified novel variants associated with myocardial infarction (MI) in Caucasians. We hypothesized that those variants whose mechanism of risk is currently unknown, confer risk via pathways mediating arterial wave reflections which is an increasingly recognized risk factor for cardiovascular disease.MethodsSingle-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at eight MI risk loci were genotyped and correlated with noninvasively determined pulse wave analysis (PWA)-derived central hemodynamic indexes (augmentation index (AIx); augmented pressure (AP); time to reflected wave (TrW) and central systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic BP (DBP)) in two independent Caucasian populations including (i) those free of measured cardiovascular risk factors (n = 133) and (ii) a community-based population (n = 270).ResultsOf the eight SNPs examined in the healthy group, the variants at loci 6p24 (AIx and AP both P < 0.001, TrW P = 0.02) and 21q22 (AIx P = 0.002, TrW P = 0.037) were significantly associated with PWA indexes. In the replication group, only the 6p24 variant correlated with these phenotypes (AIx P = 0.005, AP P = 0.049, TrW P = 0.013). In the pooled population (n = 403), no new associations were identified but the association with 6p24 and AIx remained significant even after Bonferroni correction and adjustment for covariates including age, mean arterial pressure, height, gender, glucose, cholesterol, body mass index (BMI), and smoking (AIx (P = 0.03)). Each copy of the risk allele C increased the AIx by 3.5%.ConclusionsThe GWAS discovered MI risk variant at 6p24 in the protein phosphatase 1 regulator gene (PHACTR1) is associated with adverse arterial wave reflection indexes and may mediate MI risk through this pathway.American Journal of Hypertension 2012; doi:10.1038/ajh.2012.41 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]