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1. Severity of Asymptomatic Carotid Stenosis and Risk of Ipsilateral Hemispheric Ischaemic Events: Results from the ACSRS Study

Author

Nicolaides, A, Kakkos, S, Griffin, M, Sabetai, M, Dhanjil, S, Tegos, T, Thomas, D, Giannoukas, A, Geroulakos, G, Georgiou, N, Francis, S, Ioannidou, E, Doré, C, Adovasio, R, Ziani, B, Aló, E, Cicilioni, C, Ambrosio, G, Andreev, A, Andreozzi, G, Verlato, F, Camporese, G, Arosio, E, Barkauskas, E, Barros D'Sa, A, Brannigan, P, Batchvarova, V, Dramov, A, Belardi, P, Novelli, G, Simoni, G, Bell, P, Bornstein, N, Bouchier Hayes, D, Fitzgerald, P, Cairols, M, Cao, P, DeRango, P, Carboni, G, Geoffredo, C, Catalano, M, Chambers, B, Goetzmann, M, Dickinson, A, Clement, D, Bobelyn, M, Coccheri, S, Conti, E, Diamantopolous, E, Andreadis, E, Middleton, L, Pantziaris, M, Tyllis, T, Minar, E, Willfort, A, Moggi, L, Nenci, G, Radicchia, S, Norgren, L, Ribbie, E, Novo, S, Tantillo, R, Olinic, D, Paaske, W, Pagnan, A, Pauletto, P, Pagliara, V, Pettina, G, Pratesi, C, Matticari, S, Polivka, J, Sevcik, P, Poredos, P, Blinc, A, Videcnik, V, Pujia, A, Raso, A, Rispoli, P, Conforti, M, Robinson, T, Dennis, M, Rosfors, S, Rudofsky, G, Schroeder, T, Gronholdt, M, Finocchi, C, Rodriguez, G, Dimakakos, P, Kotsis, T, Eikelboom, B, Entz, L, Ferrari Bardilleas, n, Aloi, T, Salerno, M, Fernandes, J., BIASI, GIORGIO MARIA, MINGAZZINI, PAOLO, Nicolaides, A, Kakkos, S, Griffin, M, Sabetai, M, Dhanjil, S, Tegos, T, Thomas, D, Giannoukas, A, Geroulakos, G, Georgiou, N, Francis, S, Ioannidou, E, Doré, C, Adovasio, R, Ziani, B, Aló, E, Cicilioni, C, Ambrosio, G, Andreev, A, Andreozzi, G, Verlato, F, Camporese, G, Arosio, E, Barkauskas, E, Barros D'Sa, A, Brannigan, P, Batchvarova, V, Dramov, A, Belardi, P, Novelli, G, Simoni, G, Bell, P, Biasi, G, Mingazzini, P, Bornstein, N, Bouchier Hayes, D, Fitzgerald, P, Cairols, M, Cao, P, Derango, P, Carboni, G, Geoffredo, C, Catalano, M, Chambers, B, Goetzmann, M, Dickinson, A, Clement, D, Bobelyn, M, Coccheri, S, Conti, E, Diamantopolous, E, Andreadis, E, Middleton, L, Pantziaris, M, Tyllis, T, Minar, E, Willfort, A, Moggi, L, Nenci, G, Radicchia, S, Norgren, L, Ribbie, E, Novo, S, Tantillo, R, Olinic, D, Paaske, W, Pagnan, A, Pauletto, P, Pagliara, V, Pettina, G, Pratesi, C, Matticari, S, Polivka, J, Sevcik, P, Poredos, P, Blinc, A, Videcnik, V, Pujia, A, Raso, A, Rispoli, P, Conforti, M, Robinson, T, Dennis, M, Rosfors, S, Rudofsky, G, Schroeder, T, Gronholdt, M, Finocchi, C, Rodriguez, G, Dimakakos, P, Kotsis, T, Eikelboom, B, Entz, L, Ferrari Bardilleas, N, Aloi, T, Salerno, M, Fernandes, J, NICOLAIDES A N, KAKKOS S K, GRIFFIN M, SABETAI M, DHANJIL S, TEGOS T, THOMAS D J, GIANNOUKAS A, GEROULAKOS G, GEORGIOU N, FRANCIS S, IOANNIDOU E, and NOVO S

Subjects
Risk, medicine.medical_specialty, medicine.medical_treatment, Carotid Stenosi, Predictive Value of Test, Carotid endarterectomy, Severity of Illness Index, Asymptomatic, Brain Ischemia, chemistry.chemical_compound, Cerebrovascular Accident, medicine.artery, Internal medicine, Severity of illness, NASCET, MED/22 - CHIRURGIA VASCOLARE, medicine, Carotid, Stenosis, Medicine(all), Ultrasonography, Doppler, Duplex, Creatinine, business.industry, Risk Factor, Incidence (epidemiology), medicine.disease, major clinical study, Ultrasonography, Duplex, Doppler, chemistry, Predictive value of tests, Cardiology, Surgery, ECST, Radiology, Internal carotid artery, medicine.symptom, Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine, business, Human
Abstract

Objectives. This study determines the risk of ipsilateral ischaemic neurological events in relation to the degree of asymptomatic carotid stenosis and other risk factors. Methods. Patients (n = 1115) with asymptomatic internal carotid artery (ICA) stenosis greater than 50% in relation to the bulb diameter were followed up for a period of 6-84 (mean 37.1) months. Stenosis was graded using duplex, and clinical and biochemical risk factors were recorded. Results. The relationship between ICA stenosis and event rate is linear when stenosis is expressed by the ECST method, but S-shaped if expressed by the NASCET method. In addition to the ECST grade of stenosis (RR 1.6; 95% CI 1.21-2.15), history of contralateral TIAs (RR 3.0; 95% CI 1.90-4.73) and creatinine in excess of 85 μmol/L (RR 2.1; 95% CI 1.23-3.65) were independent risk predictors. The combination of these three risk factors can identify a high-risk group (7.3% annual event rate and 4.3% annual stroke rate) and a low risk group (2.3% annual event rate and 0.7% annual stroke rate). Conclusions. Linearity between ECST percent stenosis and risk makes this method for grading stenosis more amenable to risk prediction without any transformation not only in clinical practice but also when multivariable analysis is to be used. Identification of additional risk factors provides a new approach to risk stratification and should help refine the indications for carotid endarterectomy. © 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Published
2005
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2. Predictors and clinical significance of progression or regression of asymptomatic carotid stenosis

Author

Kakkos, Sk, Nicolaides, An, Charalambous, I, Thomas, D, Giannopoulos, A, Naylor, Ar, Geroulakos, G, Abbott, Al, Asymptomatic Carotid Stenosis, Risk of Stroke Study Group Adovasio, R, Ziani, B, Alò, F, Cicilioni, C, Ambrosio, G, Andreev, A, Andreozzi, G, Verlato, F, Camporese, G, Arosio, E, Barkauskas, E, D'Sa, A, Brannigan, P, Batchvarova, V, Dramov, A, Belardi, P, Novelli, G, Simoni, G, Bell, P, Biasi, G, Mingazzini, P, Bornstein, N, Bouchier Hayes, D, Fitzgerald, P, Cairols, M, Cao, P, Derango, P, Carboni, G, Geoffredo, C, Catalano, M, Chambers, B, Goetzmann, M, Dickinson, A, Clement, D, Bobelyn, M, Coccheri, S, Conti, E, Diamantopoulos, E, Andreadis, E, Dimakakos, P, Kotsis, T, Eikelboom, B, Entz, L, Ferrari Bardile, A, Aloi, T, Salerno, M, Fernandes J, Fernandes e., Pedro, L, Fitzgerald, D, O'Shaughnessy, A, Fletcher, J, Forconi, S, Cappeli, R, Bicchi, M, Arrigucci, S, Gallai, V, Cardaiolli, G, Kakkos, S, Gomez Isaza, L, Gorgoyannis, G, Liasis, N, Graf, M, Guarini, P, Hardy, S, Harris, P, Aston, S, Iosa, G, Katsamouris, A, Giannoukas, A, Krzanowski, M, Ladurner, G, Leal Monedero, J, Lee, B, Liapis, C, Galanis, P, Liboni, W, Pavanelli, E, Mannarino, E, Vaudo, G, Mccollum, P, Levison, R, Micieli, G, Bosone, D, Middleton, L, Pantziaris, M, Tyllis, T, Minar, E, Willfort, A, Moggi, L, Nenci, G, Radicchia, S, Nicolaides, A, Norgren, L, Ribbe, E, Novo, S, Tantillo, R, Olinic, D, Paaske, W, Pagnan, A, Pauletto, P, Pagliara, V, Pettina, G, Pratesi, C, Matticari, S, Polivka, J, Sevcik, P, Poredos, P, Blinc, A, Videcnik, V, Pujia, A, Raso, A, Rispoli, Pietro, Conforti, M, Robinson, T, Dennis, M, Rosfors, S, Rudofsky, G, Schroeder, T, Gronholdt, M, Finocchi, C, Rodriguez, G, Spartera, C, Ventura, M, Scarpelli, P, Sprynger, M, Sadzot, B, Hottermans, C, Moonen, M, Taylor, P, Tovar Pardo, A, Negreira, J, Vayssairat, M, Faintuch, J, Valaikiené, J, Walker, M, Wilkinson, A. R., Kakkos, Stavros K., Nicolaides, Andrew N., Charalambous, Ioanna, Thomas, Dafydd, Giannopoulos, Argyrio, Naylor, A. Ro, Geroulakos, George, Abbott, Anne L., Adovasio, Roberto, Ziani, B., Alò, F. P., Cicilioni, C. G., Ambrosio, G., Andreev, A., Andreozzi, G. M., Verlato, F., Camporese, G., Arosio, E., Barkauskas, E., Barros D'Sa, A. A. B., Brannigan, P., Batchvarova, V., Dramov, A., Belardi, P., Novelli, G. P., Simoni, G., Bell, P., Biasi, G. M., Mingazzini, P., Bornstein, N. M., Bouchier Hayes, D., Fitzgerald, P., Cairols, M. A., Cao, P. G., Derango, P., Carboni, G. P., Geoffredo, C., Catalano, M., Chambers, B., Goetzmann, M., Dickinson, A., Clement, D., Bobelyn, M., Coccheri, S., Conti, E., Diamantopoulos, E., Andreadis, E. A., Dimakakos, P. B., Kotsis, T., Eikelboom, B., Entz, L., Ferrari Bardile, A., Aloi, T., Salerno, M., Fernandes E. Fernandes, J., Pedro, L., Fitzgerald, D. E., O'Shaughnessy, A. M., Fletcher, J., Forconi, S., Cappeli, R., Bicchi, M., Arrigucci, S., Gallai, V., Cardaiolli, G., Gomez Isaza, L. F., Gorgoyannis, G., Liasis, N., Graf, M., Guarini, P., Hardy, S., Harris, P., Aston, S., Iosa, G., Katsamouris, A., Giannoukas, A., Krzanowski, M., Ladurner, G., Leal Monedero, J., Lee, B. B., Liapis, C., Galanis, P., Liboni, W., Pavanelli, E., Mannarino, E., Vaudo, G., Mccollum, P., Levison, R., Micieli, G., Bosone, D., Middleton, L., Pantziaris, M., Tyllis, T., Minar, E., Willfort, A., Moggi, L., Nenci, G., Radicchia, S., Norgren, L., Ribbe, E., Novo, S., Tantillo, R., Olinic, D., Paaske, W., Pagnan, A., Pauletto, P., Pagliara, V., Pettina, G., Pratesi, C., Matticari, S., Polivka, J., Sevcik, P., Poredos, P., Blinc, A., Videcnik, V., Pujia, A., Raso, A., Rispoli, P., Conforti, M., Robinson, T., Dennis, M. S. J., Rosfors, S., Rudofsky, G., Schroeder, T., Gronholdt, M. L., Finocchi, C., Rodriguez, G., Spartera, C., Ventura, M., Scarpelli, P., Sprynger, M., Sadzot, B., Hottermans, C., Moonen, M., Taylor, P. R., Tovar Pardo, A., Negreira, J., Vayssairat, M., Faintuch, J. M., Valaikiené, J., Walker, M. G., and Wilkinson, A. R.

Subjects
Male, Time Factors, Cost effectiveness, medicine.medical_treatment, Carotid Stenosi, Predictive Value of Test, Kaplan-Meier Estimate, Carotid endarterectomy, Retinal Disease, Risk Factors, 80 and over, Carotid Stenosis, Plaque, Atherosclerotic, Ultrasonography, Aged, 80 and over, Ultrasonography, Doppler, Duplex, Incidence, Remission Induction, Doppler, Middle Aged, Prognosis, Plaque, Atherosclerotic, Duplex, Europe, Stroke, Predictive value of tests, Disease Progression, Cardiology, Female, medicine.symptom, Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine, Carotid Artery, Internal, Human, Adult, medicine.medical_specialty, Time Factor, Victoria, Prognosi, Asymptomatic, Retinal Diseases, Predictive Value of Tests, Internal medicine, medicine, Humans, Clinical significance, Aged, Asymptomatic Disease, business.industry, Risk Factor, medicine.disease, Internal, Confidence interval, Surgery, Stenosis, Asymptomatic Diseases, Relative risk, asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis, Carotid Artery, business
Abstract

OBJECTIVE: To determine baseline clinical and ultrasonographic plaque factors predictive of progression or regression of asymptomatic carotid stenosis and the predictive value of changes in stenosis severity on risk of first ipsilateral cerebral or retinal ischemic events (including stroke).METHODS: A total of 1121 patients with asymptomatic carotid stenosis of 50% to 99% in relation to the bulb diameter (European Carotid Surgery Trial [ECST] method) underwent six monthly clinical assessments and carotid duplexes for up to 8 years (mean follow-up, 4 years). Progression or regression was considered present if there was a change of at least one grade higher or lower, respectively, persisting for at least two consecutive examinations.RESULTS: Regression occurred in 43 (3.8%), no change in 856 (76.4%), and progression in 222 (19.8%) patients. Younger age, high grades of stenosis, absence of discrete white areas in the plaque, and taking lipid lowering therapy were independent baseline predictors of increased incidence of regression. High serum creatinine, male gender, not taking lipid lowering therapy, low grades of stenosis, and increased plaque area were independent baseline predictors of progression. One hundred and thirty first ipsilateral cerebral or retinal ischemic events, including 59 strokes, occurred. Forty (67.8%) of the strokes occurred in patients whose stenosis was unchanged, 19 (32.2%) in those with progression, and zero in those with regression. For the entire cohort, the 8-year cumulative ipsilateral cerebral ischemic stroke rate was zero in patients with regression, 9% if the stenosis was unchanged, and 16% if there was progression (average annual stroke rates of 0%, 1.1%, and 2.0%, respectively; log-rank, P = .05; relative risk in patients with progression, 1.92; 95% confidence interval, 1.14-3.25). For patients with baseline stenosis 70% to 99% in relation to the distal internal carotid (North American Symptomatic Carotid Endarterectomy Trial [NASCET] method), in the absence of progression (n = 349), the 8-year cumulative ipsilateral cerebral ischemic stroke rate was 12%. In the presence of progression (n = 77), it was 21% (average annual stroke rates of 1.5% and 2.6%, respectively; log-rank, P = .34). Only nine (30%) of the 30 strokes occurred in the progression group.CONCLUSIONS: Progressive asymptomatic carotid stenosis identified a subgroup with about twice the risk of ipsilateral stroke compared with those without progression. However, the clinical value of screening for progression simply for selecting patients for carotid procedures is limited because of the low frequency of progression and its relatively low associated stroke rate. The cost effectiveness of screening for change in stenosis severity to better direct current optimal medical treatment needs testing.

Published
2014
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3. Silent embolic infarcts on computed tomography brain scans and risk of ipsilateral hemispheric events in patients with asymptomatic internal carotid artery stenosis

Author

Kakkos, S, Sabetai, M, Tegos, T, Stevens, J, Thomas, D, Griffin, M, Geroulakos, G, Nicolaides, A, Adovasio, R, Ziani, B, Alò, F, Cicilioni, C, Ambrosio, G, Andreev, A, Andreozzi, G, Verlato, F, Camporese, G, Arosio, E, Barkaukas, E, Barros D'Sa, A, Brannigan, P, Batchvarova, V, Dramov, A, Belardi, P, Novelli, G, Simoni, G, Bell, P, BIASI, GIORGIO MARIA, MINGAZZINI, PAOLO, Bornstein, N, Bouchier Hayes, D, Fitzgerald, P, Cairols, M, Cao, P, DeRango, P, Carboni, G, Geoffredo, C, Catalano, M, Chambers, B, Goetzmann, M, Dickinson, A, Clement, D, Bobelyn, M, Coccheri, S, Conti, E, Diamantopoulos, E, Andreadis, A, Dimakakos, P, Kotsis, T, Eikelboom, B, Entz, L, Ferrari Bardile, T, Salerno, M, Fernandes, J, Pedro, L, Fitzgerald, D, O'Shaunnersy, A, Fletcher, J, Forconi, S, Capelli, R, Bicchi, M, Arrigucci, S, Gallai, V, Cardaiolli, G, Gomez Isaza, L, Gorgoyannis, G, Liasis, N, Graf, M, Guarini, P, Hardy, S, Harris, P, Aston, S, Iosa, G, Katsamouris, A, Giannoukas, A, Krzanowski, M, Ladurner, G, Leal Monedero, J, Lee, B, Liapis, C, Galanis, P, Liboni, W, Pavanelli, E, Mannarino, E, Vaudo, G, McCollum, P, Levison, R, Micieli, G, Bosone, D, Middleton, L, Pantziaris, M, Tyllis, T, Minar, E, Willfort, A, Moggi, L, Nenci, G, Radicchia, S, Norgren, L, Ribbe, E, Novo, S, Tantillo, R, Olinic, D, Paaske, W, Pagnan, A, Pauletto, P, Pagliara, V, Pettina, G, Pratesi, C, Matticari, S, Polivka, J, Sevcik, P, Poredos, P, Blinc, A, Videcnik, V, Pujia, A, Raso, A, Rispoli, P, Conforti, M, Robinson, T, Dennis, M, Rosfors, S, Rudofsky, G, Finocchi, C, Rodriguez, G, Spartera, C, Ventura, M, Scarpelli, P, Sprynger, M, Sadzot, B, Hottermans, C, Moonenbj, n, Taylor, P, Tovar Pardo, A, Negreira, J, Vayssairat, M, Faintuch, J, Valaikiene, J, Walker, M, Wilkinson, A., Kakkos, S, Sabetai, M, Tegos, T, Stevens, J, Thomas, D, Griffin, M, Geroulakos, G, Nicolaides, A, Adovasio, R, Ziani, B, Alò, F, Cicilioni, C, Ambrosio, G, Andreev, A, Andreozzi, G, Verlato, F, Camporese, G, Arosio, E, Barkaukas, E, Barros D'Sa, A, Brannigan, P, Batchvarova, V, Dramov, A, Belardi, P, Novelli, G, Simoni, G, Bell, P, Biasi, G, Mingazzini, P, Bornstein, N, Bouchier Hayes, D, Fitzgerald, P, Cairols, M, Cao, P, Derango, P, Carboni, G, Geoffredo, C, Catalano, M, Chambers, B, Goetzmann, M, Dickinson, A, Clement, D, Bobelyn, M, Coccheri, S, Conti, E, Diamantopoulos, E, Andreadis, A, Dimakakos, P, Kotsis, T, Eikelboom, B, Entz, L, Ferrari Bardile, T, Salerno, M, Fernandes, J, Pedro, L, Fitzgerald, D, O'Shaunnersy, A, Fletcher, J, Forconi, S, Capelli, R, Bicchi, M, Arrigucci, S, Gallai, V, Cardaiolli, G, Gomez Isaza, L, Gorgoyannis, G, Liasis, N, Graf, M, Guarini, P, Hardy, S, Harris, P, Aston, S, Iosa, G, Katsamouris, A, Giannoukas, A, Krzanowski, M, Ladurner, G, Leal Monedero, J, Lee, B, Liapis, C, Galanis, P, Liboni, W, Pavanelli, E, Mannarino, E, Vaudo, G, Mccollum, P, Levison, R, Micieli, G, Bosone, D, Middleton, L, Pantziaris, M, Tyllis, T, Minar, E, Willfort, A, Moggi, L, Nenci, G, Radicchia, S, Norgren, L, Ribbe, E, Novo, S, Tantillo, R, Olinic, D, Paaske, W, Pagnan, A, Pauletto, P, Pagliara, V, Pettina, G, Pratesi, C, Matticari, S, Polivka, J, Sevcik, P, Poredos, P, Blinc, A, Videcnik, V, Pujia, A, Raso, A, Rispoli, P, Conforti, M, Robinson, T, Dennis, M, Rosfors, S, Rudofsky, G, Finocchi, C, Rodriguez, G, Spartera, C, Ventura, M, Scarpelli, P, Sprynger, M, Sadzot, B, Hottermans, C, Moonenbj, N, Taylor, P, Tovar Pardo, A, Negreira, J, Vayssairat, M, Faintuch, J, Valaikiene, J, Walker, M, and Wilkinson, A

Subjects
Male, medicine.medical_specialty, Time Factors, medicine.medical_treatment, internal carotid artery, Carotid endarterectomy, Kaplan-Meier Estimate, brain embolism, Asymptomatic, Risk Assessment, Central nervous system disease, Duplex scanning, Predictive Value of Tests, MED/22 - CHIRURGIA VASCOLARE, medicine, Humans, Carotid Stenosis, brain infarction, cardiovascular diseases, Prospective Studies, Stroke, Aged, Proportional Hazards Models, Ultrasonography, Doppler, Duplex, Cerebral infarction, business.industry, Amaurosis fugax, Cerebral Infarction, medicine.disease, major clinical study, neurologic disease, Stenosis, multicenter study, Intracranial Embolism, Ischemic Attack, Transient, transient ischemic attack, Disease Progression, carotid artery obstruction, Surgery, Female, Radiology, medicine.symptom, business, Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine, Tomography, X-Ray Computed, Carotid Artery, Internal, prospective study
Abstract

Udgivelsesdato: 2009-Apr OBJECTIVES: This study tested the hypothesis that silent embolic infarcts on computed tomography (CT) brain scans can predict ipsilateral neurologic hemispheric events and stroke in patients with asymptomatic internal carotid artery stenosis. METHODS: In a prospective multicenter natural history study, 821 patients with asymptomatic carotid stenosis graded with duplex scanning who had CT brain scans were monitored every 6 months for a maximum of 8 years. Duplex scans were reported centrally, and stenosis was expressed as a percentage in relation to the normal distal internal carotid criteria used by the North American Symptomatic Carotid Endarterectomy Trialists. CT brain scans were reported centrally by a neuroradiologist. In 146 patients (17.8%), 8 large cortical, 15 small cortical, 72 discrete subcortical, and 51 basal ganglia ipsilateral infarcts were present; these were considered likely to be embolic and were classified as such. Other infarct types, lacunes (n = 15), watershed (n = 9), and the presence of diffuse white matter changes (n = 95) were not considered to be embolic. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 44.6 months (range, 6 months-8 years), 102 ipsilateral hemispheric neurologic events (amaurosis fugax in 16, 38 transient ischemic attacks [TIAs], and 47 strokes) occurred, 138 patients died, and 24 were lost to follow-up. In 462 patients with 60% to 99% stenosis, the cumulative event-free rate at 8 years was 0.81 (2.4% annual event rate) when embolic infarcts were absent and 0.63 (4.6% annual event rate) when present (log-rank P = .032). In 359 patients with

Published
2008
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4. The size of juxtaluminal hypoechoic area in ultrasound images of asymptomatic carotid plaques predicts the occurrence of stroke

Author

Kakkos, Sk, Griffin, Mb, Nicolaides, An, Kyriacou, E, Sabetai, Mm, Tegos, T, Makris, Gc, Thomas, Dj, Geroulakos, G, Asymptomatic Carotid Stenosis, Risk of Stroke Study Group, Adovasio, R, Ziani, B, Alò, F, Cicilioni, C, Ambrosio, G, Andreev, A, Andreozzi, G, Verlato, F, Camporese, G, Arosio, E, Barkauskas, E, Barros, A, Brannigan, P, Batchvarova, V, Dramov, A, Belardi, P, Novelli, G, Simoni, G, Bell, P, Biasi, G, Mingazzini, P, Bornstein, N, Bouchier Hayes, D, Fitzgerald, P, Cairols, M, Cao, P, Derango, P, Carboni, G, Geoffredo, C, Catalano, M, Chambers, B, Goetzmann, M, Dickinson, A, Clement, D, Bobelyn, M, Coccheri, S, Conti, E, Diamantopoulos, E, Andreadis, E, Dimakakos, P, Kotsis, T, Eikelboom, B, Entz, L, Ferrari Bardile, A, Aloi, T, Salerno, M, Fernandes, J, Pedro, L, Fitzgerald, D, O'Shaughnessy, A, Fletcher, J, Forconi, S, Cappeli, R, Bicchi, M, Arrigucci, S, Gallai, V, Cardaiolli, G, Kakkos, S, Gomez Isaza, L, Gorgoyannis, G, Liasis, N, Graf, M, Guarini, P, Hardy, S, Harris, P, Aston, S, Iosa, G, Katsamouris, A, Giannoukas, A, Krzanowski, M, Ladurner, G, Leal Monedero, J, Lee, B, Liapis, C, Galanis, P, Liboni, W, Pavanelli, E, Mannarino, E, Vaudo, G, Mccollum, P, Levison, R, Micieli, G, Bosone, D, Middleton, L, Pantziaris, M, Tyllis, T, Minar, E, Willfort, A, Moggi, L, Nenci, G, Radicchia, S, Nicolaides, A, Thomas, D, Norgren, L, Ribbe, E, Novo, S, Tantillo, R, Olinic, D, Paaske, W, Pagnan, A, Pauletto, P, Pagliara, V, Pettina, G, Pratesi, C, Matticari, S, Polivka, J, Sevcik, P, Poredos, P, Blinc, A, Videcnik, V, Pujia, A, Raso, A, Rispoli, Pietro, Conforti, M, Robinson, T, Dennis, M, Rosfors, S, Rudofsky, G, Schroeder, T, Gronholdt, M, Finocchi, C, Rodriguez, G, Spartera, C, Ventura, M, Scarpelli, P, Sprynger, M, Sadzot, B, Hottermans, C, Moonen, M, Taylor, P, Tovar Pardo, A, Negreira, J, Vayssairat, M, Faintuch, J, Valaikiené, J, Walker, M, Wilkinson, R., Stavros K., Kakko, Maura B., Griffin, Andrew N., Nicolaide, Efthyvoulos, Kyriacou, Michael M., Sabetai, Thomas, Tego, Gregory C., Makri, Dafydd J., Thoma, George, Geroulako, Asymptomatic Carotid, Stenosi, Risk of Stroke Study, Group, Adovasio, Roberto, Kakkos, SK, Griffin, MB, Nicolaides, AN, Kyriacou, E, Sabetai, MM, Tegos, T, Makris, GC, Thomas, DJ, Geroulakos, G, and Novo, s

Subjects
Asymptomatic carotid plaque, Male, Time Factors, medicine.medical_treatment, Carotid endarterectomy, Kaplan-Meier Estimate, Severity of Illness Index, asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis, hypoecoic area, Stroke, Risk Factors, Carotid Stenosis, Ultrasonography, Doppler, Color, Prospective cohort study, Aged, 80 and over, Neovascularization, Pathologic, Middle Aged, Prognosis, Plaque, Atherosclerotic, Europe, Ischemic Attack, Transient, Predictive value of tests, Female, Radiology, medicine.symptom, juxtaluminal hypoechoic area, ultrasound images, asymptomatic carotid plaques, stroke, Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine, Carotid Artery, Internal, Adult, medicine.medical_specialty, Asymptomatic, Risk Assessment, Brain ischemia, Echography, Predictive Value of Tests, asymptomatic carotid artery stenosi, medicine, Humans, cardiovascular diseases, Aged, Proportional Hazards Models, business.industry, Proportional hazards model, medicine.disease, Acoustic shadow, Settore MED/11 - Malattie Dell'Apparato Cardiovascolare, Stenosis, ROC Curve, Asymptomatic Diseases, Linear Models, Surgery, business, Follow-Up Studies
Abstract

OBJECTIVE: To test the hypothesis that the size of a juxtaluminal black (hypoechoic) area (JBA) in ultrasound images of asymptomatic carotid artery plaques predicts future ipsilateral ischemic stroke. METHODS: A JBA was defined as an area of pixels with a grayscale value 10 mm(2) (P < .001). In a Cox model with ipsilateral ischemic events (amaurosis fugax, transient ischemic attack [TIA], or stroke) as the dependent variable, the JBA (8 mm(2)) was still significant after adjusting for other plaque features known to be associated with increased risk, including stenosis, grayscale median, presence of discrete white areas without acoustic shadowing indicating neovascularization, plaque area, and history of contralateral TIA or stroke. Plaque area and grayscale median were not significant. Using the significant variables (stenosis, discrete white areas without acoustic shadowing, JBA, and history of contralateral TIA or stroke), this model predicted the annual risk of stroke for each patient (range, 0.1%-10.0%). The average annual stroke risk was

Published
2013
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5. Carotid artery stenting compared with endarterectomy in patients with symptomatic carotid stenosis (International Carotid Stenting Study): an interim analysis of a randomised controlled trial

Author

Ederle, J., Dobson, J., Featherstone, R. L., Bonati, L. H., Worp, H. B., Borst, G. J., Lo, T. H., Gaines, P., Dorman, P. J., Macdonald, S., Lyrer, P. A., Hendriks, J. M., Mccollum, C., Nederkoorn, P. J., Brown, M. M., Algra, A., Bamford, J., Beard, J., Bland, M., Bradbury, A. W., Clifton, A., Hacke, W., Halliday, A., Malik, I., Mas, J. L., Mcguire, A. J., Sidhu, P., Venables, G., Bradbury, A., Collins, R., Molynewc, A., Naylor, R., Warlow, C., Ferro, J. M., Thomas, D., Coward, L., Featherstone, R. F., Tindall, H., Mccabe, D. J. H., Wallis, A., Brooks, M., Chambers, B., Chan, A., Chu, P., Clark, D., Dewey, H., Donnan, G., Fell, G., Hoare, M., Molan, M., Roberts, A., Roberts, N., Beiles, B., Bladin, C., Clifford, C., Grigg, M., New, G., Bell, R., Bower, S., Chong, W., Holt, M., Saunder, A., Than, P. G., Gett, S., Leggett, D., Mcgahan, T., Quinn, J., Ray, M., Wong, A., Woodruff, P., Foreman, R., Schultz, D., Scroop, R., Stanley, B., Allard, B., Atkinson, N., Cambell, W., Davies, S., Field, P., Milne, P., Mitchell, P., Tress, B., Yan, B., Beasley, A., Dunbabin, D., Stary, D., Walker, S., Cras, P., D Archambeau, O., Hendriks, J. M. H., Schil, P., Bosiers, M., Deloose, K., Buggenhout, E., Letter, J., Devos, V., Ghekiere, J., Vanhooren, G., Astarci, P., Hammer, F., Lacroix, V., Peters, A., Verhelst, R., Dejaegher, L., Peeters, A., Verbist, J., Blair, J. F., Caron, J. L., Daneault, M., Giroux, M. F., Guilbert, F., Lanthier, S., Lebrun, L. H., Oliva, V., Raymond, J., Roy, D., Soulez, G., Weill, A., Hill, M., Hu, W., Hudion, M., Morrish, W., Sutherland, G., Wong, J., Alback, A., Harno, H., Ijas, P., Kaste, M., Lepantalo, M., Mustanoja, S., Paananen, T., Porras, M., Puutala, J., Railo, M., Sairanen, T., Soinne, L., Vehmas, A., Vikatmaa, P., Goertler, M., Halloul, Z., Skalej, M., Brennan, P., Kelly, C., Leahy, A., Moroney, J., Thornton, J., Koelemay, M. J. W., Reekers, J. A. A., Roos, Y. B. W. E. M., Koudstaal, P. J., Pattynama, P. M. T., Lugt, A., Dijk, L. C., Sambeek, L. R. H. M., Urk, H., Verhargen, H. J. M., Bruininckx, C. M. A., Bruijn, S. F., Keunen, R., Knippenberg, B., Mosch, A., Treurniet, F., Dijk, L., Overhagen, H., Wever, J., Beer, F. C., Den Berg, J. S. P., Hasselt, B. A. A. M., Zeilstra, D. J., Boiten, J., Otterloo, J. C. A. D., Vries, A. C., Nieholt, G. J. L. A., Kallen, B. F. W., Blankensteijn, J. D., Leeuw, F. E., Kool, L. J. S., Vliet, J. A., Kort, G. A. P., Kapelle, L. J., Mali, W. P. T. M., Moll, F., Verhagen, H., Barber, P. A., Bourchier, R., Hill, A., Holden, A., Stewart, J., Bakke, S. J., Krohg-Sorensen, K., Skjelland, M., Tennoe, B., Bialek, P., Biejat, Z., Czepiel, W., Czlonkowska, A., Dowzenko, A., Jedrzejewska, J., Kobayashi, A., Lelek, M., Polanski, J., Kirbis, J., Milosevic, Z., Zvan, B., Vasco, J., Blasco, J., Chamorro, A., Macho, J., Obach, V., Riambau, V., San Roman, L., Branera, J., Canovas, D., Estela, J., Gaibar, A. G., Perendreu, J., Bjorses, K., Gottsater, A., Ivancev, K., Maetzsch, T., Sonesson, B., Berg, B., Delle, M., Formgren, J., Gillgren, P., Kall, T. B., Konrad, P., Nyman, N., Takolander, R., Andersson, T., Malmstedt, A., Soderman, M., Wahlgren, C., Wahlgren, N., Binaghi, S., Hirt, L., Michel, P., Ruchat, P., Engelter, S. T., Fluri, F., Guerke, L., Jacob, A. L., Kirsch, E., Radue, E. W., Stierli, P., Wasner, M., Wetznel, S., Bonvin, C., Kalangos, A., Lovblad, K., Murith, N., Ruefenacht, D., Sztajzel, R., Higgins, N., Kirkpatrick, P. J., Martin, P., Adam, D., Bell, J., Crowe, P., Gannon, M., Henderson, M. J., Sandler, D., Shinton, R. A., Scriven, J. M., Wilmink, T., D Souza, S., Egun, A., Guta, R., Punekar, S., Seriki, D. M., Thomson, G., Brennan, A., Enevoldson, T. P., Gilling-Smith, G., Gould, D. A., Harris, P. L., Mcwilliams, R. G., Nasser, H. C., White, R., Prakash, K. G., Serracino-Inglott, F., Subramanian, G., Smyth, J. V., Walker, M. G., Clarke, M., Davis, M., Dixit, S. A., Dolman, P., Dyker, A., Ford, G., Golkar, A., Jackson, R., Jayakrishnan, V., Lambert, D., Lees, T., Louw, S., Mendelow, A. D., Rodgers, H., Rose, J., Stansby, G., Wyatt, M., Baker, T., Baldwin, N., Jones, L., Mitchell, D., Munro, E., Thornton, M., Baker, D., Davis, N., Hamilton, G., Mccabe, D., Platts, A., Tibballs, J., Cleveland, T., Dodd, D., Lonsdale, R., Nair, R., Nassef, A., Nawaz, S., Belli, A., Cloud, G., Markus, H., Mcfarland, R., Morgan, R., Pereira, A., Thompson, A., Chataway, J., Cheshire, N., Gibbs, R., Hammady, M., Jenkins, M., Wolfe, J., Adiseshiah, M., Bishop, C., Brew, S., Brookes, J., Jager, R., Kitchen, N., Ashleigh, R., Butterfield, S., Gamble, G. E., Nasim, A., O Neill, P., Edwards, R. D., Lees, K. R., Mackay, A. J., Moss, J., Rogers, P., Developmental Genetics, International Carotid Stenting Study, ACS - Amsterdam Cardiovascular Sciences, Neurology, Surgery, Radiology and Nuclear Medicine, and ANS - Amsterdam Neuroscience

Subjects
Male, medicine.medical_specialty, SURGERY, medicine.medical_treatment, Carotid endarterectomy, 030204 cardiovascular system & hematology, Neuroinformatics [DCN 3], 03 medical and health sciences, 0302 clinical medicine, Risk Factors, Angioplasty, medicine, Humans, Carotid Stenosis, cardiovascular diseases, ANGIOPLASTY, Stroke, Endarterectomy, Aged, Endarterectomy, Carotid, Intention-to-treat analysis, Cardiovascular diseases [NCEBP 14], business.industry, Stent, General Medicine, Interim analysis, medicine.disease, 3. Good health, Surgery, Female, Stents, Human medicine, Carotid stenting, business, 030217 neurology & neurosurgery, Angioplasty, Balloon
Abstract

Contains fulltext : 88112.pdf (Publisher’s version ) (Closed access) BACKGROUND: Stents are an alternative treatment to carotid endarterectomy for symptomatic carotid stenosis, but previous trials have not established equivalent safety and efficacy. We compared the safety of carotid artery stenting with that of carotid endarterectomy. METHODS: The International Carotid Stenting Study (ICSS) is a multicentre, international, randomised controlled trial with blinded adjudication of outcomes. Patients with recently symptomatic carotid artery stenosis were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive carotid artery stenting or carotid endarterectomy. Randomisation was by telephone call or fax to a central computerised service and was stratified by centre with minimisation for sex, age, contralateral occlusion, and side of the randomised artery. Patients and investigators were not masked to treatment assignment. Patients were followed up by independent clinicians not directly involved in delivering the randomised treatment. The primary outcome measure of the trial is the 3-year rate of fatal or disabling stroke in any territory, which has not been analysed yet. The main outcome measure for the interim safety analysis was the 120-day rate of stroke, death, or procedural myocardial infarction. Analysis was by intention to treat (ITT). This study is registered, number ISRCTN25337470. FINDINGS: The trial enrolled 1713 patients (stenting group, n=855; endarterectomy group, n=858). Two patients in the stenting group and one in the endarterectomy group withdrew immediately after randomisation, and were not included in the ITT analysis. Between randomisation and 120 days, there were 34 (Kaplan-Meier estimate 4.0%) events of disabling stroke or death in the stenting group compared with 27 (3.2%) events in the endarterectomy group (hazard ratio [HR] 1.28, 95% CI 0.77-2.11). The incidence of stroke, death, or procedural myocardial infarction was 8.5% in the stenting group compared with 5.2% in the endarterectomy group (72 vs 44 events; HR 1.69, 1.16-2.45, p=0.006). Risks of any stroke (65 vs 35 events; HR 1.92, 1.27-2.89) and all-cause death (19 vs seven events; HR 2.76, 1.16-6.56) were higher in the stenting group than in the endarterectomy group. Three procedural myocardial infarctions were recorded in the stenting group, all of which were fatal, compared with four, all non-fatal, in the endarterectomy group. There was one event of cranial nerve palsy in the stenting group compared with 45 in the endarterectomy group. There were also fewer haematomas of any severity in the stenting group than in the endarterectomy group (31 vs 50 events; p=0.0197). INTERPRETATION: Completion of long-term follow-up is needed to establish the efficacy of carotid artery stenting compared with endarterectomy. In the meantime, carotid endarterectomy should remain the treatment of choice for patients suitable for surgery. FUNDING: Medical Research Council, the Stroke Association, Sanofi-Synthelabo, European Union.

Published
2010
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6. Guidelines for patient selection and performance of carotid artery stenting.

Author

Bladin, C., Chambers, B., Crimmins, D., Davis, S., Donnan, G., Frayne, J., Levi, C., Muller, D., New, G., Denton, M., Lawrence-Brown, M., Phatouros, C., Scroop, R., and Harrington, T.

Subjects
*CAROTID artery diseases, *ATHEROSCLEROSIS, *PREVENTIVE medicine, *DISEASE risk factors, *MEDICAL care
Abstract

The endovascular treatment of carotid atherosclerosis with carotid artery stenting (CAS) remains controversial. Carotid endarterectomy (CEA) remains the benchmark in terms of procedural mortality and morbidity. Consensus Australasian guidelines for the safe performance of CAS were developed using the modified Delphi consensus method of iterative consultation. Selection of patients suitable for CAS needs careful consideration of clinical and patho-anatomical criteria. Randomised controlled trials and pooled analyses have demonstrated that CAS is more hazardous than CEA. The CGSC therefore recommends that CAS should not be performed in the majority of patients requiring carotid revascularisation. There is currently no evidence to support CAS as a treatment for asymptomatic carotid stenosis. The use of distal protection devices during CAS remains controversial with increased risk of clinically silent stroke. The knowledge requirements for the safe performance of CAS include an understanding of the evidence base from randomised controlled trials, carotid and aortic arch anatomy and pathology, and recognition and management of periprocedural complications. It is critical that all patients being considered for a carotid intervention have adequate pre-procedural neuroimaging and peri-procedural, independent, neurological assessment. Maintenance of proficiency in CAS requires active involvement in surgical/endovascular audit and continuing medical education programmes. These standards should apply in the public and private health-care settings. These guidelines represent the consensus of an intercollegiate committee in order to direct appropriate patient selection to perform CAS. Advances in endovascular technologies and the results of randomised controlled trials will guide future revisions of this document. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2009
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7. Timing of Clinically Significant Microembolism after Carotid Endarterectomy.

Author

Abbott, A. L., Levi, C. R., Stork, J. L., Donnan, G. A., and Chambers, B. R.

Subjects
TRANSCRANIAL Doppler ultrasonography, DOPPLER ultrasonography, ENDARTERECTOMY, ARTERIAL surgery, DEXTRAN, BLOOD plasma substitutes
Abstract

Purpose: Post-operatively detected transcranial Doppler (TCD) embolic signals (ES) are associated with an increased risk of carotid endarterectomy (CEA) stroke/TIA. The aims here were to quantify this risk and determine the most efficient monitoring protocol. Methods: Sequential patients undergoing CEA (enrolled in a randomised, blinded, placebo-controlled trial of peri-operative dextran therapy) had 30-min TCD monitoring in the first post-operative hour. 30-min monitoring was also performed 2–3, 4–6 and 24–36 h post-operatively. First post-operative hour ES counts were correlated with peri-operative ipsilateral carotid stroke/TIA to determine the size of a clinically significant ES load and the magnitude of the associated risk. The exact Cochran-Armitage test for trend in proportions was used to determine when a clinically significant ES load was first detected. Results: 141 patients (mean age 69.3 years, 72% male) were monitored during the first post-operative hour. An ES count >10 per recording was identified as the best overall predictor of ipsilateral stroke/TIA (sensitivity 72%, specificity 89%). 3/119 (2.5%) patients with 0–10 ES had ipsilateral carotid events compared to 8/22 (36.4%) patients with 11–115 ES (OR = 22.1, 95% CI 4.5, 138.4, p < 0.0001). 13/18 (72%) of subjects with >10 ES were identified in the first post-operative hour with no significant increase in the number of new cases over the subsequent 24–36 post-operative h (p = 0.354). Conclusion: Patients with clinically significant post-operative microembolism had an approximately 15 times higher risk of ipsilateral stroke/TIA and most were identified during a 30-min study in the first post-operative hour. Copyright © 2007 S. Karger AG, Basel [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2007
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8. Symptomatic and asymptomatic carotid stenosis: just when we thought we had all the answers.

Author

Gates, P. C., Chambers, B., Yan, B., Chong, W., and Denton, M.

Subjects
*ENDARTERECTOMY, *SURGICAL stents, *ANGIOPLASTY, *CLINICAL trials, CAROTID artery stenosis
Abstract

The management of symptomatic and asymptomatic carotid stenosis has been a hotly debated topic for decades. The publication of four randomized controlled trials of carotid endarterectomy has clarified many of the issues. Patients with symptomatic carotid stenosis >70% benefit most with an absolute risk reduction of 17% over 2 years with numbers needed to treat of 3–6, whereas in patients with asymptomatic carotid stenosis >60%, the absolute risk reduction is 1% per annum (numbers needed to treat = 14–17). There is doubt about the benefit in women >70 years of age with asymptomatic stenosis. Carotid angioplasty and stenting is in its infancy and may one day supplant carotid endarterectomy as the treatment of choice; however, currently indications for this procedure include participation in randomized controlled trials, surgically inaccessible stenosis, in patients with combined symptomatic carotid and symptomatic coronary artery disease or in patients with severe co-morbidities that preclude formal carotid endarterectomy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2006
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9. Factors associated with mortality in patients with asymptomatic carotid stenosis: Results from the ACSRS study

Author

Kakkos, S. K., Nicolaides, A. N., Griffin, M., Sabetai, M., Dhanjil, S., Thomas, D. J., Sonecha, T., Salmasi, A. M., Geroulakos, G., Georgiou, N., Francis, S., Ioannidou, E., Dore, C. J., Adovasio, R., Ziani, B., Alò, F. P., Cicilioni, C. G., Ambrosio, G., Andreev, A., Andreozzi, G. M., Verlato, F., Camporese, G., Arosio, E., Barkauskas, E., Barros D Sa, A. A. B., Brannigan, P., Batchvarova, V., Dramov, A., Belardi, P., Novelli, G. P., Simoni, G., Bell, P., Biasi, G. M., Mingazzini, P., Bornstein, N. M., Bouchier-Hayes, D., Fitzgerald, P., Cairols, M. A., Cao, P. G., Derango, P., Carboni, G. P., Geoffredo, C., Catalano, M., Chambers, B., Goetzmann, M., Dickinson, A., Clement, D., Bobelyn, M., Coccheri, S., Conti, E., Diamantopolous, E., Andreadis, E. A., Dimakakos, P. B., Kotsis, T., Eikelboom, B., Entz, L., Ferrari-Bardile, Aloi, T., Salerno, M., Fernandez E Fernandez, J., Pedro, L., Fitzgerald, D. E., O Shaunnersy, A., Fletcher, J., Forconi, S., Cappeli, R., Bicchi, M., Arigucci, S., Gallai, V., Cardaiolli, G., Kakkos, S., Gomez-Isaza, L. F., Gorgoyannis, G., Liasis, N., Graf, M., Guarini, P., Hardy, S., Harris, P., Aston, S., Iosa, G., Katsamouris, A., Glannoukas, A., Krzanowski, M., Ladurner, G., Leal-Monedero, J., Lee, B. B., Liapis, C., Galanis, P., Liboni, W., Pavanelli, E., elmo mannarino, Vaudo, G., Mccollum, P., Levison, R., Micieli, G., Bosone, D., Middleton, L., Pantziaris, M., Kakkos, S, Nicolaides, A, Griffin, M, Sabetai, M, Dhanjil, S, Thomas, D, Sonecha, T, Salmasi, A, Geroulakos, G, Georgiou, N, Francis, S, Ioannidou, E, Dore, C, Adovasio, R, Ziani, B, Alò, F, Cicilioni, C, Ambrosio, G, Andreev, A, Andreozzi, G, Verlato, F, Camporese, G, Arosio, E, Barkauskas, E, Barros D'Sa, A, Brannigan, P, Batchvarova, V, Dramov, A, Belardi, P, Novelli, G, Simoni, G, Bell, P, Biasi, G, Mingazzini, P, Bornstein, N, Bouchier Hayes, D, Fitzgerald, P, Cairols, M, Cao, P, Derango, P, Carboni, G, Geoffredo, C, Catalano, M, Chambers, B, Goetzmann, M, Dickinson, A, Clement, D, Bobelyn, M, Coccheri, S, Conti, E, Diamantopolous, E, Andreadis, E, Dimakakos, P, Kotsis, T, Eikelboom, B, Entz, L, Ferrari Bardilead, N, Aloi, T, Salerno, M, Fernandez, J, Pedro, L, Fitzgerald, D, O'Shaunnersy, A, Fletcher, J, Forconi, S, Cappeli, R, Bicchi, M, Arigucci, S, Gallai, V, Cardaiolli, G, Gomez Isaza, L, Gorgoyannis, G, Liasis, N, Graf, M, Guarini, P, Hardy, S, Harris, P, Aston, S, Iosa, G, Katsamouris, A, Glannoukas, A, Krzanowski, M, Ladurner, G, Leal Monedero, J, Lee, B, Liapis, C, Galanis, P, Liboni, W, Pavanelli, E, Mannarino, E, Vaudo, G, Mccollum, P, Levison, R, Micieli, G, Bosone, D, Middleton, L, and Pantziaris, M

Subjects
cause of death, Ultrasonography, Doppler, Duplex, MED/22 - CHIRURGIA VASCOLARE, cerebrovascular accident, carotid endarterectomy, major clinical study, Carotid Artery, Internal, Stenosi
Abstract

Aim. This study determines the factors associated with mortality in patients with asymptomatic carotid stenosis. Methods. Patients (n=1 101) with asymptomatic internal carotid artery stenosis greater than 50% in relation to the bulb diameter were followed up for a period of 6 to 84 (median 38) months. Stenosis was graded using duplex scanning and expressed as a percentage of the carotid bulb diameter. Clinical and biochemical risk factors were recorded. The end-points were ipsilateral ischemic stroke, cardiovascular death and all cause mortality. Results. In a Cox multivariate analysis 6 factors emerged as independent predictors of risk. Age, male gender, cardiac failure, left ventricular hypertrophy on electrocardiogram (ECG) and myocardial ischemia on ECG were associated with increased risk. Antiplatelet therapy was associated with decreased risk. Based on these risk factors a high-risk group consisting of one third of the population with a 40% cumulative cardiovascular death rate and a 66% all cause death rate at 7 years could be identified. The remaining 2/3 consisted of a low-risk group with a 10% cumulative cardiovascular death rate and a 21% all cause death rate at 7 years (P0.05). Conclusion. The methodology and findings from the ACSRS natural history study need to be applied to randomized controlled trials on the value of carotid endarterectomy or stenting in patients with asymptomatic carotid stenosis. They may help refine the indications for intervention in patients with carotid endarterectomy.

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