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A whole-farm, stochastic and dynamic simulation model was developed to predict biophysical and economic performance of grazing dairy systems. Several whole-farm models simulate grazing dairy systems, but most of them work at a herd level. This model, named e-Dairy, differs from the few models that work at an animal level, because it allows stochastic behaviour of the genetic merit of individual cows for several traits, namely, yields of milk, fat and protein, live weight (LW) and body condition score (BCS) within a whole-farm model. This model accounts for genetic differences between cows, is sensitive to genotype × environment interactions at an animal level and allows pasture growth, milk and supplements price to behave stochastically. The model includes an energy-based animal module that predicts intake at grazing, mammary gland functioning and body lipid change. This whole-farm model simulates a 365-day period for individual cows within a herd, with cow parameters randomly generated on the basis of the mean parameter values, defined as input and variance and co-variances from experimental data sets. The main inputs of e-Dairy are farm area, use of land, type of pasture, type of crops, monthly pasture growth rate, supplements offered, nutritional quality of feeds, herd description including herd size, age structure, calving pattern, BCS and LW at calving, probabilities of pregnancy, average genetic merit and economic values for items of income and costs. The model allows to set management policies to define: dry-off cows (ceasing of lactation), target pre- and post-grazing herbage mass and feed supplementation. The main outputs are herbage dry matter intake, annual pasture utilisation, milk yield, changes in BCS and LW, economic farm profit and return on assets. The model showed satisfactory accuracy of prediction when validated against two data sets from farmlet system experiments. Relative prediction errors were <10% for all variables, and concordance correlation coefficients over 0.80 for annual pasture utilisation, yields of milk and milk solids (MS; fat plus protein), and of 0.69 and 0.48 for LW and BCS, respectively. A simulation of two contrasting dairy systems is presented to show the practical use of the model. The model can be used to explore the effects of feeding level and genetic merit and their interactions for grazing dairy systems, evaluating the trade-offs between profit and the associated risk.

This animal simulation model, named e-Cow, represents a single dairy cow at grazing. The model integrates algorithms from three previously published models: a model that predicts herbage dry matter (DM) intake by grazing dairy cows, a mammary gland model that predicts potential milk yield and a body lipid model that predicts genetically driven live weight (LW) and body condition score (BCS). Both nutritional and genetic drives are accounted for in the prediction of energy intake and its partitioning. The main inputs are herbage allowance (HA; kg DM offered/cow per day), metabolisable energy and NDF concentrations in herbage and supplements, supplements offered (kg DM/cow per day), type of pasture (ryegrass or lucerne), days in milk, days pregnant, lactation number, BCS and LW at calving, breed or strain of cow and genetic merit, that is, potential yields of milk, fat and protein. Separate equations are used to predict herbage intake, depending on the cutting heights at which HA is expressed. The e-Cow model is written in Visual Basic programming language within Microsoft Excel®. The model predicts whole-lactation performance of dairy cows on a daily basis, and the main outputs are the daily and annual DM intake, milk yield and changes in BCS and LW. In the e-Cow model, neither herbage DM intake nor milk yield or LW change are needed as inputs; instead, they are predicted by the e-Cow model. The e-Cow model was validated against experimental data for Holstein-Friesian cows with both North American (NA) and New Zealand (NZ) genetics grazing ryegrass-based pastures, with or without supplementary feeding and for three complete lactations, divided into weekly periods. The model was able to predict animal performance with satisfactory accuracy, with concordance correlation coefficients of 0.81, 0.76 and 0.62 for herbage DM intake, milk yield and LW change, respectively. Simulations performed with the model showed that it is sensitive to genotype by feeding environment interactions. The e-Cow model tended to overestimate the milk yield of NA genotype cows at low milk yields, while it underestimated the milk yield of NZ genotype cows at high milk yields. The approach used to define the potential milk yield of the cow and equations used to predict herbage DM intake make the model applicable for predictions in countries with temperate pastures.

The somatotropic axis [including growth hormone (GH), GH receptor, and insulin-like growth factor (IGF)-I] is uncoupled in high-producing cows in early lactation so that the liver fails to respond to GH and produces less IGF-I. This uncoupling was implicated in the process of nutrient partitioning, enabling high milk production. Different genetic selection goals may affect functional components of the somatotropic axis. Thus, the somatotropic axis was examined in diverse genetic strains of dairy cows [North American Holstein 1990 (NA90), New Zealand Holstein-Friesian 1990 (NZ90), and New Zealand Holstein-Friesian 1970 (NZ70)] that were managed similarly within a pasture-based system but were offered feed allowances commensurate with their genetic ability to produce milk. The NA90 cows produced more milk (26.2 +/- 0.3, 24.1 +/- 0.3, and 20.1 +/- 0.4 kg/d, for NA90, NZ90, and NZ70, respectively), but had lower milk fat percentages (4.28 +/- 0.03, 4.69 +/- 0.03, and 4.58 +/- 0.04 kg/d for NA90, NZ90, and NZ70, respectively) compared with both NZ strains. Milk protein percentages (3.38 +/- 0.02, 3.52 +/- 0.02, and 3.29 +/- 0.03 kg/d for NA90, NZ90, and NZ70, respectively) were greater for NZ90 cows. During early lactation (wk 2 to 6), the total net energy produced in milk was greater in NA90 compared with NZ90 or NZ70 cows, but total net energy in milk after wk 6 was equivalent for NA90 and NZ90 cows. The greater milk production in early lactation in NA90 cows was associated with lower body condition scores (BCS; 1 to 10 scale; 4.0 +/- 0.1) elevated blood GH concentrations (1.6 +/- 0.1 ng/mL), and low blood IGF-I concentrations (14.8 +/- 1.1 ng/mL), indicating an uncoupled somatotropic axis. In comparison, the NZ70 cows retained a coupled somatotropic axis during early lactation, maintaining greater BCS (4.6 +/- 0.1), lower blood GH (0.7 +/- 0.1 ng/mL), and greater blood IGF-I (21.9 +/- 1.2 ng/mL). The degree of uncoupling in NZ90 cows was intermediate between the other 2 strains. Additional feed allowance failed to change blood IGF-I concentrations in NA90 cows but increased IGF-I concentrations in NZ90 cows (20.9 +/- 1.4 and 13.2 +/- 1.4 ng/mL for the high and low feed allowance, respectively). Furthermore, additional feed allowance in NZ90 cows lessened BCS loss in early lactation, but did not affect BCS loss in NA90 cows. Functional components of the somatotropic axis differed for the respective strains and were consistent with strain differences in milk production, BCS, and feed allowance.

Aim: To assess the likely impact on the health and welfare of dairy cattle in New Zealand of increased use of housing., Methods: Published data on the effect of housing on the welfare of dairy cattle were reviewed to determine whether, under New Zealand conditions, housing was likely to increase or reduce welfare. The focus of this review was on permanent housing, and the welfare outcomes assessed were primarily those associated with biological function rather than behaviour. The five areas of focus were shelter, feeding, calving, lameness, and other diseases, and were based on the welfare concerns expressed by dairy farmers of large herds., Results: The shelter provided by housing dairy cattle would appreciably improve welfare under a relatively small range of conditions. For feeding and calving, both advantages and disadvantages of housing were identified. For lameness and mastitis, published research and comparisons of disease levels in New Zealand with those in other developed dairying countries strongly suggest that increased use of housing will increase the risk of these diseases., Conclusions: Under New Zealand conditions, housing dairy cattle is likely to have both significant welfare benefits (protection from environmental conditions) and drawbacks (increased risk of mastitis and lameness). New Zealand-based research suggests that in most areas of the country the benefits of protection from extremes of temperature and wind and rain are likely to be apparent on only a few days a year, insufficient to justify the costs associated with housing cattle. Thus, dairy cattle are likely to be housed for longer than required for shelter purposes, increasing the risk of deleterious effects without a balancing welfare advantage from environmental protection., Clinical Relevance: Increases in lameness and mastitis are likely to be associated with the increased use of housing and are likely to be accompanied by changes in the aetiology and presentation of these diseases, requiring better detection techniques, such as measurement of comfort or locomotion score, and new preventive regimes, such as pre-milking teat spray and routine corrective hoof-trimming.

With the introduction of a protein milk payment system in New Zealand in 1988, there was an influx of North American (NA) Holstein-Friesian (HF) genetics into New Zealand (NZ) dairy herds, leading to an increase in the average percentage of NA genetics in NZ HF cows--from 2% in 1980 to 38% in 1999. Of interest has been the effect this change has had on farm profitability and on the management required for these animals, as well as the phenotypic changes that have occurred within the national herd under the breeding programs operated in NZ from 1970 to 1990. The objective of this study was to quantify differences in body dimensions, body weights, and puberty-related parameters among 3 strains of HF, representing animals of NZ origin representative of the genetics present in 1970 and 1990 and of NA origin with 1990s genetics. A total of 172 animals born in 1999 were compared. The strains were 1) NZ70, a strain of NZ Friesian (average 7% NA genetics) equivalent to high-genetic-merit (high Breeding Worth) cows farmed in the 1970s; 2) NZ90, a strain of HF of NZ origin (average 24% NA genetics) typical of the animals present in the 1990s; and 3) NA90, a strain of HF of NA origin (average of 91% NA genetics) typical of animals present in the 1990s. The differences in BW among all strains were significant at 6 and 12 mo of age. At 15 and 24 mo, the 2 NZ strains were significantly lighter than the NA90 animals. At 24 mo of age (i.e., prior to first calving), the NA90 strain animals (BW = 515 kg) were 22 and 34 kg heavier than the NZ90 and NZ70 strains. The body length of the NA90 strain was greater than either of the 2 NZ strains; the differences among the NA90 strain and the 2 NZ strains varied from 2 to 6 cm, with the differences generally being greater at older ages. The trend in heart girth difference among strains was similar to that observed for body length. The wither height of the NA90 animals was greater than that of the NZ strains by 1 to 7 cm, although there was no significant difference between the NA90 and NZ90 strains at birth. At puberty the NA90 heifers were 20 d older and 20 kg heavier than the NZ90 heifers, which in turn were 25 kg and 25 d older than the NZ70 heifers. The NA90 strain had a heavier mature body weight, and their older age at puberty suggested either that they mature later or that, under pastoral conditions, their growth rate is limited by their inability to consume sufficient metabolizable energy as grazed pasture, with a consequent delay in puberty. Results from this study will be useful in revising target BW in growing heifers of different germplasm.

Character states of New Zealand herds were formed within the environmental ranges of herd average total lactation yield of fat plus protein (MS), which is a proxy for feeding level, summer heat load index (HLI), herd size, and altitude. A univariate multibreed sire model was applied to first-lactation (2 yr old) records of milk, fat, and protein within each environmental character state to estimate breed and heterosis effects. A scaling effect was observed for MS yield between overseas Holstein-Friesian (OHF) and New Zealand Jersey (NZJ) animals when comparing breed performance in extreme MS character states. For example, differences for milk, fat, and protein yield between these breeds were 561, 1.3, and 9.3 kg, respectively, in the character state averaging 227 kg of MS/cow, much smaller than the differences of 1,151, 3.1, and 23.0 in the character state averaging 376 kg of MS/cow. Heterosis levels for milk, fat, and protein yields were highest for OHF x NZJ, followed by New Zealand Friesian (NZF) x NZJ and OHF x NZF with average heterosis for all traits of 7.3, 5.7, and 2.7%, respectively. Heterosis levels for OHF x NZF were suppressed in very low MS yield environments and in many cases were not significantly different from zero. Heterosis was suppressed in crosses with OHF in the high HLI environment. Crossbred animals (OHF x NZJ, NZF x NZJ, and OHF x NZF) generally achieved higher fat yields than any of the straight-bred animals.

This study quantifies the extent of within-breed sire reranking for milk production traits in a range of environments encountered within New Zealand. Character states of herds were formed within the environmental ranges of herd fat plus protein (MS) yield, summer heat load index (HLI), herd size, and altitude. Single-trait and bivariate sire models across breeds were then applied for estimation of genetic parameters and genetic correlations between extreme character states. A low degree of sire reranking occurred, as measured by genetic correlations around 0.9, between herd environments that differed widely in MS yield (227 vs. 376 kg of MS per cow), and HLI (61.4 vs. 69.6). The HLI of 61.4 and 69.6 are approximately equivalent to average summer maximum temperatures of 19 and 25 degrees C at 80% humidity. Correlations of sire estimated breeding values in extreme character states were low, but only one was below an expected correlation accounting for the reliability of prediction. The results show the environment in New Zealand is not sufficiently diverse to warrant separate breeding schemes for different environments.

Effects of milking cows once daily throughout lactation at high stocking rates (17% more cows/ha than for those milked twice daily) were studied in 2 Friesian and 2 Jersey herds during 3 lactations. Cows were allocated to 2 herds within breed and were milked either once or twice daily, based on age, genetic merit, and previous performance. Cows remained in their original herd and were milked at the same milking frequency during all lactations. Culled cows (20% per year) were replaced by 2-yr-old heifers. Yields of milk, lactose, protein, and fat were measured every 2 wk by commercial herd test. Cubic splines (5 knots) were used to approximate the lactation curve for each cow-yr to provide estimates of performance for each day of lactation. Yields of milk were greater for Friesian and Jersey cows milked twice daily (4,751 +/- 89 and 3,067 +/- 81 kg/cow) than for cows milked once daily (3,329 +/- 80 and 2,431 +/- 75 kg/cow), respectively. Cows milked once daily had lesser total and peak yields of milk, lactose, protein, and fat than cows milked twice daily. Friesians had greater total and peak yields than Jerseys. Peak production for all milk components occurred earlier in lactation for cows milked once daily than twice daily (d 24 to 39 vs. 32 to 44). Three measures of persistency of lactation were considered for each cow with 2 measures (Pers1 and Pers2) indicating that cows milked twice daily had better persistency than those milked once daily. Ranking of herds in persistency tended to match the ranking based on total yields. Measures of persistency (Pers1 and Pers2) were positively related to total yield in the Jerseys milked once daily and negatively related to peak yield in the Friesians. The third persistency measure (Pers3) ranked once-daily Jerseys first and twice-daily Friesians last, and was negatively correlated with total yield in the Friesian herds and negatively correlated with peak yield in all herds. For most performance measures, cows milked twice daily had better total yields and persistency than cows milked once daily.

A deterministic model was developed to evaluate the concurrent effects of selection and crossbreeding on the rate of genetic gain and productivity of New Zealand dairy cattle over 25 yr. Selection was based on an index, which included estimated breeding values for mature cow live weight and lactation yields of milk, fat, and protein. Mating strategies involving Holstein-Friesian, Jersey, and Ayrshire breeds were evaluated. Effects of heterosis and age were included to calculate live weight and yields of milk, fat, and protein per cow. Feed requirements were estimated for maintenance, lactation, and pregnancy and for replacement heifers. Stocking rate was calculated by assuming 12,000 kg of dry matter annually utilized per hectare. Upgrading to either Jersey or Holstein-Friesian increased the number of potential bull mothers and resulted in genetic gains of 0.27 genetic standard deviations/yr for both options. Rotational crossbreeding of Holstein-Friesian x Jersey decreased the number of potential bull mothers and resulted in a genetic gain of 0.24 genetic standard deviations/yr. Upgrading to Jersey resulted in the least increase in milk (5%) and the greatest increase in fat (16%) and protein (27%) per hectare with a small decrease in stocking rate (0.4%). Upgrading to Holstein-Friesian reduced the stocking rate by 11% and increased production of milk, fat, and protein per hectare by 10, 8, and 21%, respectively. Rotational crossbreeding of Holstein-Friesian x Jersey resulted in greater production per hectare than the intermediate production between upgrading to Jersey and upgrading to Holstein-Friesian. Crossbreeding can be used in combination with selection to exploit the effects of heterosis while maintaining genetic diversity to cover changes in market conditions.

The effects of selection and crossbreeding on the New Zealand dairy industry net income were evaluated with a deterministic model over a 25 yr planning horizon. Several mating strategies involving Holstein-Friesian, Jersey and Ayrshire cattle were evaluated. These strategies were straight breeding, upgrading to Holstein-Friesian, upgrading to Jersey, upgrading to Ayrshire, use of the best bulls irrespective of breed and two- and three-breed rotational crossbreeding. Industry productions of milk, fat, protein, and lactose were calculated assuming that 12,000 kg of dry matter per hectare was utilized from 1,224,911 hectares of pasture. Profitability was the difference between income (international sale of whole milk powder, casein, butter, and beef from salvage animals) and costs (farm expenses, milk collection, manufacture, and marketing). Casein and whole milk powder were valued at NZ$8.345 and NZ$3.306/ per kilogram, respectively, over 25 yr. Butter was valued at NZ$2.995/kilogram for base year production levels and NZ$0.45/kilogram for marginal increases in production. Upgrading to Holstein-Friesian resulted in the highest industry net income (NZ$1119 million) followed by straight breeding (NZ$1086 million) and two-breed rotational Holstein-Friesian x Jersey (NZ$1076 million). However, if the marginal value of extra butter production was assumed equal to the average base value, then upgrading to Jersey resulted in the highest industry net income (NZ$1185 million) followed by two-breed rotational Holstein-Friesian x Jersey (NZ$1177 million) and use of the best bulls (NZ$1173 million). Future costs and prices of dairy products have major impact on mating strategies.

The aim of this study was to evaluate the profitability of dairy herds under three mating systems involving the Holstein-Friesian, Jersey, and Ayrshire breeds. Mating systems were straight breeding and rotational cross-breeding using two or three breeds. A deterministic model was developed to simulate the nutritional, biological, and economic performance of dairy herds under New Zealand conditions. Expected performances per cow were obtained using estimates of breed group and heterosis effects, age effects, and age distribution in the herd. Requirements for dry matter in feed were estimated per cow for maintenance, lactation, pregnancy, and growth of the replacements. Stocking rate was calculated by assuming 12,000 kg of dry matter utilized annually per hectare. Productivity per hectare was calculated as performance per cow multiplied by stocking rate. Profitability was the difference between income (sale of milk and salvage value of animals) and costs (related to the number of cows in the herd and the land area farmed). Under current market values for milk and meat, all of the rotational crossbred herds showed superior profitability to the straightbred herds (Holstein-Friesian x Jersey, NZ$505/ha; Holstein-Friesian x Jersey x Ayrshire NZ$493/ha; Jersey x Ayrshire, NZ$466/ha; Holstein-Friesian x Ayrshire, NZ$430/ha; Jersey, NZ$430/ha; Holstein-Friesian, NZ$398/ha; and Ayrshire, NZ$338/ha). Changes in the value for fat relative to protein affected profitability more significantly in herds using the Jersey breed, and changes in the value for meat affected profitabiity more significantly in herds using the Holstein-Friesian and Ayrshire breeds. Results suggested that, under New Zealand conditions, the use of rotational crossbreeding systems could increase profitability of dairy herds under the conceivable market conditions.