Search

Objective: To cross-validate the global cost of scaling up child survival interventions to achieve the fourth Millennium Development Goal (MDG4) as estimated by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2007 by using the latest country-provided data and new assumptions., Methods: After the main cost categories for each country were identified, validation questionnaires were sent to 32 countries with high child mortality. Publicly available estimates for disease incidence, intervention coverage, prices and resources for individual-level and programme-level activities were validated against local data. Nine updates to the 2007 WHO model were generated using revised assumptions. Finally, estimates were extrapolated to 75 countries and combined with cost estimates for immunization and malaria programmes and for programmes for the prevention of mother-to-child transmission of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)., Findings: Twenty-six countries responded. Adjustments were largest for system- and programme-level data and smallest for patient data. Country-level validation caused a 53% increase in original cost estimates (i.e. 9 billion 2004 United States dollars [US$]) for 26 countries owing to revised system and programme assumptions, especially surrounding community health worker costs. The additional effect of updated population figures was small; updated epidemiologic figures increased costs by US$ 4 billion (+15%). New unit prices in the 26 countries that provided data increased estimates by US$ 4.3 billion (+16%). Extrapolation to 75 countries increased the original price estimate by US$ 33 billion (+80%) for 2010-2015., Conclusion: Country-level validation had a significant effect on the cost estimate. Price adaptations and programme-related assumptions contributed substantially. An additional 74 billion US$ 2005 (representing a 12% increase in total health expenditure) would be needed between 2010 and 2015. Given resource constraints, countries will need to prioritize health activities within their national resource envelope.

Background: Countries with high rates of child mortality tend to have shortages of qualified health workers. Little rigorous evidence has been done to assess how much the quality of care varies between types of health workers. We compared the performance of different categories of health workers who are trained in Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI)., Methods: We analysed data obtained from first-level health facility surveys in Bangladesh (2003), Brazil (2000), Uganda (2002), and Tanzania (2000). We compared the clinical performance of health workers with longer duration of preservice training (those with >4 years of post-secondary education in Brazil or >3 years in the other three countries) and shorter duration (all other health workers providing clinical care). We calculated quality of care with indicators of assessment, classification, and management of sick children according to IMCI guidelines. Every child was examined twice, by the IMCI-trained health worker being assessed and by a gold-standard supervisor., Findings: 272 children were included in Bangladesh, 147 in Brazil, 231 in Tanzania, and 612 in Uganda. The proportions of children correctly managed by health workers with longer duration of preservice training in Brazil were 57.8% (n=43) versus 83.7% (n=61) for those with shorter duration of training (p=0.008), and 23.1% (n=47) versus 32.6% (n=134) (p=0.03) in Uganda. In Tanzania, those with longer duration of training did better than did those with shorter duration in integrated assessment of sick children (mean index of integrated assessment 0.94 [SD 0.15] vs 0.88 [0.13]; p=0.004). In Bangladesh, both categories of health worker did much the same in all clinical tasks. We recorded no significant difference in clinical performance in all the other clinical tasks in the four countries., Interpretation: IMCI training is associated with much the same quality of child care across different health worker categories, irrespective of the duration and level of preservice training. Strategies for scaling up IMCI and other child-survival interventions might rely on health workers with shorter duration of preservice training being deployed in underserved areas.

Objective: To estimate the additional resources required to scale up interventions to reduce child mortality and morbidity within the context of the fourth Millennium Development Goals aim to reduce mortality among children aged<5 years by two-thirds by 2015., Methods: A costing model was developed to estimate the financial resources needed in 75 countries to scale up priority interventions that address the major causes of mortality among children aged < 5 years, including malnutrition, pneumonia, diarrhoea, malaria and key newborn causes of death such as sepsis. Calculations were made using bottom-up and ingredients-based approaches; this allowed financial costs to be estimated for each intervention, country and year. Costs reflect WHO guidelines on inputs and delivery strategies and encompass the delivery of interventions at community and facility levels. These costs also include programme-specific investments needed at national level and district level., Findings: The scale-up scenario predicts that an additional US$ 52.4 billion will be required for the period 2006-2015. This represents an increase in total per-capita health expenditure in the 75 countries of US$ 0.47 in 2006; this is projected to increase to US$ 1.46 in 2015. Projected costs in 2015 are equivalent to increasing the average total health expenditure from all financial sources in the 75 countries by 8% and raising general government health expenditure by 26% over 2002 levels. (The latest data available at the time of the study were for 2002.) The scale-up scenario indicates that countries with weak health systems may experience difficulties mobilizing enough domestic public funds., Conclusions: While the results are approximate estimates, they show a substantial investment gap that low- and middle-income countries and their development partners need to bridge to reach the fourth Millennium Development Goal.