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BackgroundChina is experiencing a postpeak smoking epidemic with accelerating population ageing. Understanding the impacts of these factors on the future cancer burden has widespread implications.MethodsWe developed predictive models to estimate smoking-related cancer deaths among men and women aged ≥35 years in China during 2020–2040. Data sources for model parameters included the United Nations World Population Prospects, China Death Surveillance Database, national adult tobacco surveys and the largest national survey of smoking and all causes of death to date. The main assumptions included stable sex-specific and age-specific cancer mortality rates and carcinogenic risks of smoking over time.ResultsIn a base-case scenario of continuing trends in current smoking prevalence (men: 57.4%–50.5%; women: 2.6%–2.1% during 2002–2018), the smoking-related cancer mortality rate with population ageing during 2020–2040 would rise by 44.0% (from 337.2/100 000 to 485.6/100 000) among men and 52.8% (from 157.3/100 000 to 240.4/100 000) among women; over 20 years, there would be 8.6 million excess deaths (0.5 million more considering former smoking), and a total of 117.3 million smoking-attributable years of life lost (110.3 million (94.0%) in men; 54.1 million (46.1%) in working-age (35–64 years) adults). An inflection point may occur in 2030 if smoking prevalence were reduced to 20% (Healthy China 2030 goal), and 1.4 million deaths would be averted relative to the base-case scenario if the trend were maintained through 2040.ConclusionsCoordinated efforts are urgently needed to curtail a rising tide of cancer deaths in China, with intensified tobacco control being key.

Two types of three-dimensional circulation of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) act as the coupling wheels determining the seasonal rainfall anomalies in China during 1979–2015. The first coupling mode features the interaction between the Mongolian cyclone over North Asia and the South Asian high (SAH) anomalies over the Tibetan Plateau at 200 hPa. The second mode presents the coupling between the anomalous low-level western Pacific anticyclone and upper-level SAH via the meridional flow over Southeast Asia. These two modes are responsible for the summer rainfall anomalies over China in 24 and 7 out of 37 years, respectively. However, the dominant SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific, the Indian Ocean, and the North Atlantic Ocean fail to account for the first coupling wheel’s interannual variability, illustrating the challenges in forecasting summer rainfall over China.

Seasonal evolution of rainband over East China is evident and shows remarkable year-to-year variations. The present study identified two dominant interannual modes of the seasonal evolution of rainband over East China from 1981 to 2018: (1) the sudden change pattern, in which the anomalous rainfall changes abruptly from boreal spring to summer, especially over South China; and (2) the northward migration pattern, which shows a gradual poleward migration of the anomalous rainband over East China with the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). Both of them are regulated by the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the Northern Hemisphere from spring to summer. In the sudden change pattern, the SSTAs in the Pacific modulate spring rainfall over South China via the ENSO–EASM teleconnection. By contrast, the North Atlantic SSTAs change the mid-latitude wave train and modify summer rainfall over South and North China, in conjunction with the anomalous tropical circulation due to the Indian SSTAs. In the northward migration pattern, the North Pacific SSTAs alter spring rainfall over South China by varying the low-level western North Pacific subtropical high and the zonal land–sea thermal contrast over East Asia. Afterward, the ENSO-like SSTAs induce a Pacific–Japan teleconnection and shift the anomalous rainband northward to the Yangtze-Huai River and North China in summer. The seasonal switch of the SSTAs regulating these two modes is physically linked from boreal spring to summer. This mechanism provides potential seasonal predictability of the seasonal evolution of the anomalous rainband over East China.

Background Extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ECC) has become one of the most rapidly increasing malignancies in China during recent decades. The relationship between tobacco exposure and ECC epidemics is unclear; this study aimed to explore this relationship. Methods We included 55,806 participants aged 30 years or older from the National Mortality and Smoking Survey of China. Smoking in participants and spouses was defined as 1 cigarette or more per day for up to 1 year. Spouses’ smoking was taken as a measure of exposure to passive smoking. Smoking information in 1980 was ascertained and outcomes were defined as ECC mortality during 1986–1988. Results We found that either passive or active smoking increased the risk of death from ECC by 20% (risk ratio [RR], 1.20; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.99–1.47), compared with no exposure to any tobacco. This risk was a notable 98% (RR, 1.98; 95% CI, 1.49–2.64) for individuals exposed to passive plus active smoking. These findings were highly consistent among men and women. Pathology-based analyses showed dose-response relationships of ECC with pack-years for all types of smoking exposure (Ps for trend

Background Smoking increases the risk of numerous cancers; however, an association of smoking with adult gliomas has not been found in a population. Methods This case-control study included 4556 glioma cases (ICD-9 code 191.0-191.9) aged ≥ 30 years and 9112 controls from a national survey of smoking and mortality in China in 1989-1991. Controls from 325 255 surviving spouses of all-cause deaths were randomly assigned to cases in each of 103 areas according to sex and age groups at a ratio of 2:1. Smoking information was ascertained retrospectively by interviewing surviving spouses. Results After adjustment for confounders, smoking increased the risk of glioma deaths by 11% (odds ratio [OR] = 1.11; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.03-1.21). Compared with non-smokers; the increased risk was 9% (OR = 1.09; 95% CI: 0.99-1.20) in men and 16% (OR = 1.16; 95% CI: 1.00-1.36) in women. The risk increased with age and doses. For individuals aged ≥ 50 years, smoking was associated with higher risk of glioma death by 25% (OR = 1.25; 95% CI: 1.15-1.38); this increased risk for smokers who smoked ≥ 20 cigarettes daily for ≥ 30 years was 53% (OR = 1.53; 95% CI: 1.34-1.74). There were similar findings in both men and women and with either pathology-based or non-pathology-based comparisons. Conclusions This study indicates that smoking is associated with glioma deaths in the Chinese population. Long-term heavy smoking could be a factor for risk stratification in individuals attending brain tumor clinics.

To determine whether smoking, in any form, is a risk factor in the development of cervical cancer (CC) among urban Chinese women.We ascertained retrospectively the smoking habits of 1,865 women (aged 35+) who had died from CC (cases) and 48,781 who had died from causes unrelated to smoking (controls) in 24 cities using data from a large national survey of smoking and mortality in 1989-1991. We assessed the risk of smoking on CC mortality with and without considering passive smoke exposure from a spouse using a proportional mortality study design.Overall, there was a 51.0 % excess risk of death from CC among smokers. When the spouse's exposure was further considered, the RR (95 % CI) for exposed versus unexposed women was 1.28 (1.04-1.57) for passive smokers, 1.49 (1.02-2.20) for active smokers, and 1.69 (1.27-2.26) for women with both exposures (all p0.001). Significant dose-response associations were observed between smoking and CC for all categories of exposure. For example, individuals with both smoking exposure had the highest risk of CC mortality with moderate [RR = 1.67 (1.18-2.38)] and high [RR = 1.88 (1.04-3.41)] daily cigarette consumption, and they also had the highest risk with ≤15 years exposure [RR = 1.73 (1.19-2.52)] and15 years exposure [RR = 1.95 (1.15-3.32)], compared with the active and passive groups (p for trend0.001).Younger trend of CC death and the rapid increase in smoking among young women may have a profound impact on future incidence of CC. Our findings emphasize the need for preventive efforts among both women and men in China.

Objectives To provide a more accurate estimate of early smoking-attributable mortality and potential years of life lost using data from a representative study of 103 study areas in China. Methods Two datasets were employed as follows. Firstly, retrospective national mortality survey data, which included a population of 67 million in 103 study areas, and about 1 million adults who died in 1986–1988; secondly, nationally representative case-control comparative data was extracted from the survey data to measure the effect of smoking on age trends in smoking-attributable mortality. Potential years of life lost, and sex differences in life expectancy in smokers and non-smokers in the total population aged 35 and over were also estimated. Results Tobacco caused 11.2% (16.0% of men and 3.7% of women) of total deaths in 1987, and more than two-thirds of these excess deaths occurred between the ages of 50 and 74 years, but only less than 5% excess deaths occurred at ages under 50. Although life expectancies varied with region or sex differences, the years of life lost attributable to smoking was almost the same. Smokers at age 35 lost about 3 years of life expectancy in comparison with never smokers. The study also confirmed that more than 50% of the sex difference in life expectancy was accounted for by smoking. Conclusion Fully understanding the consequences of smoking in relation to mortality can clarify its effects on the health and longevity of the entire population.

Purpose To examine age-related effects of smoking on lung cancer mortality in a large population-based case-control study that was incorporated into a nationwide retrospective survey of mortality in China. Methods Two data sets were pooled for this analysis: national mortality survey data and data from a nationwide case-control comparison. These pooled data were used to calculate age-specific lung cancer death rates by smoking status and expected years of lost life expectancy for each smoking-associated death. Results There was a significant excess of deaths (54% of urban deaths, 51% of rural deaths) at 35 to 69 years of age among male smokers and the average loss of life expectancy per smoking-associated death at these ages was 18.3 years. For women ages 35 to 69 years of age, 29% and 11% excess lung cancer mortality was observed in urban and rural smokers, respectively, with an average loss of life expectancy per smoking-associated death of 21.3 years. Conclusions Tobacco smoking was associated with a large number of deaths from lung cancer. Utilizing information from a population-based retrospective mortality survey for conducting an analytic epidemiological study of main determinants of disease is feasible and can generate important results.

An innovative population-based case-control study was conducted in a national mortality survey to assess the hazards of tobacco use on esophageal cancer among Chinese men. Cases were 19,734 males aged 35 years or older, who died of esophageal cancer during 1986-1988. Controls were 104,846 male living spouses of the same age when their wife died (of any cause) during the same period in the same county or city. The absolute esophageal cancer death rates were higher in smokers than those in nonsmokers in all geographical groups. The relative risks for esophageal cancer were 1.88 (95% CI: 1.73-2.05) and 1.39 (95% CI: 1.28-1.50) in urban and rural men, respectively, after adjustment for other relevant covariates including age group (5 years) and locality. When the calculation was restricted to men aged 35-69, the risk ratios for current cigarette smokers increased significantly with increasing number of cigarettes smoked daily and duration of smoking. Tobacco use, in any form, is an important risk factor for esophageal cancer in Chinese men. Selecting living spouses as controls is a unique and useful approach in the design of case-control studies of cigarette smoking.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the hazards at an early phase of the growing epidemic of deaths from tobacco in China. DESIGN: Smoking habits before 1980 (obtained from family or other informants) of 0.7 million adults who had died of neoplastic, respiratory, or vascular causes were compared with those of a reference group of 0.2 million who had died of other causes. SETTING: 24 urban and 74 rural areas of China. SUBJECTS: One million people who had died during 1986-8 and whose families could be interviewed. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Tobacco attributable mortality in middle or old age from neoplastic, respiratory, or vascular disease. RESULTS: Among male smokers aged 35-69 there was a 51% (SE 2) excess of neoplastic deaths, a 31% (2) excess of respiratory deaths, and a 15% (2) excess of vascular deaths. All three excesses were significant (P/70 there was a 39% (3) excess of neoplastic deaths, a 54% (2) excess of respiratory deaths, and a 6% (2) excess of vascular deaths. Fewer women smoked, but those who did had tobacco attributable risks of lung cancer and respiratory disease about the same as men. For both sexes, the lung cancer rates at ages 35-69 were about three times as great in smokers as in non-smokers, but because the rates among non-smokers in different parts of China varied widely the absolute excesses of lung cancer in smokers also varied. Of all deaths attributed to tobacco, 45% were due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and 15% to lung cancer; oesophageal cancer, stomach cancer, liver cancer, tuberculosis, stroke, and ischaemic heart disease each caused 5-8%. Tobacco caused about 0.6 million Chinese deaths in 1990 (0.5 million men). This will rise to 0.8 million in 2000 (0.4 million at ages 35-69) or to more if the tobacco attributed fractions increase. CONCLUSIONS: At current age specific death rates in smokers and non-smokers one in four smokers would be killed by tobacco, but as the epidemic grows this proportion will roughly double. If current smoking uptake rates persist in China (where about two thirds of men but few women become smokers) tobacco will kill about 100 million of the 0.3 billion males now aged 0-29, with half these deaths in middle age and half in old age.

Purpose: To assess the validation of a novel control selection design by comparing the consistency between the new design and a routine design in a large case-control study that was incorporated into a nationwide mortality survey in China. Methods: A nationwide mortality study was conducted during 1989-1991. Surviving spouses or other relatives of all adults who died during 1986-1988 provided detailed information about their own as well as the deceased person's smoking history. In this study, 130,079 males who died of various smoking-related cancers at age 35 or over were taken as cases, while 103,248 male surviving spouses (same age range with cases) of women who died during the same period and 49,331 males who died from causes other than those related to smoking were used as control group 1 and control group 2, respectively. Consistency in the results when comparing cases with each of the control groups was assessed. Results: Consistency in the results was observed in the analyses using different control groups although cancer deaths varied with region and age. Equivalence could be ascertained using a 15% criterion in most cancer deaths which had high death rates in urban areas, but they were uncertain for most cancers in rural areas irrespective of whether the hypothesis testing showed significant differences or not. Conclusions: Sex-matched living spouse control design as an alternative control selection for a case-control study is valid and feasible, and the basic principles of the equivalence study are also supported by epidemiological survey data.

Background/Purpose We assessed the effect of smoking on death from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in China by employing a large population-based, case-spouse control study design using data from a nationwide survey of mortality. Methods During 1989-1991, a nationwide retrospective survey of mortality was conducted in China. For approximately 1,000,000 adults dying from all causes during 1986-1988, their surviving spouses or other informants provided detailed information about their own as well as the deceased person's smoking history. For this study, 183,393 individuals who died of COPD at age ≥ 40 years were taken as cases, while 272,984 sex-matched surviving spouses of subjects who died from any cause were taken as controls. Results COPD death rates for smokers were more than twice as high as those of non-smokers, with a dose-response risk pattern, despite the fact that COPD death rates varied widely by region and age. Tobacco accounted for 41.4% of COPD deaths in men, but only 13.5% of those in women, who had a lower rate of smoking. Conclusion A case-spouse control study, as an alternative design, is valid and feasible in utilizing information from population-based, retrospective mortality survey data for an analytical epidemiological study of disease etiology.

Liver cancer and liver cirrhosis are common causes of death in China, where chronic lifelong hepatitis B infection is a major cause of both diseases. To help determine whether smoking is a cofactor for the development of liver cancer, we ascertained retrospectively the smoking habits of 36,000 adults who had died from liver cancer (cases) and 17,000 who had died from cirrhosis (controls) in 24 Chinese cities and 74 rural counties. Calculations of the smoker vs. nonsmoker risk ratios (RR) for liver cancer mortality were standardised for age and locality. Among adult men (aged 35+) there was a 36% excess risk of death from liver cancer among smokers (smoker vs. nonsmoker standardised risk ratio [RR] =1.36, with 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.29-1.43, 2p

Background Cigarette smoking is a prominent risk factor for a wide range of diseases. The current study aimed to evaluate the impact of smoking on deaths from major smoking-related diseases (neoplasms, vascular diseases and respiratory diseases) in Chinese adults by estimating the potential gains in life expectancy (LE) that would accrue from eliminating deaths from these diseases, and to determine the contribution of each disease to the reduction in LE associated with smoking. Methods Two cohorts of Chinese smokers and non-smokers were constructed from a retrospective national mortality survey that had been conducted in 1989–1991 and included one million all-cause deaths among adults during 1986–1988 in 103 geographical regions. For each cohort, potential gains in LE by eliminating deaths from each major smoking-related disease were estimated. The contributions of each disease to smoking-associated reduction in LE were assessed using the LE decomposition approach. Results Among the major smoking-related diseases, it was estimated that elimination of vascular diseases would provide the greatest potential gain in LE (years), regardless of smoking status. The gains for smokers versus non-smokers in populations of urban men, urban women, rural men and rural women aged 35 years were 3.5 vs. 4.3, 3.8 vs. 4.1, 2.4 vs. 3.0, and 2.6 vs. 2.9 years, respectively. Respiratory diseases contributed most to smoking-associated LE reductions in urban women, rural men and rural women of 43.6%, 46.4%, and 62.9%, respectively. In urban men, neoplasms contributed most to smoking-associated LE reduction, their contribution being estimated as 45.8%. Conclusions Respiratory disease has the greatest influence on the LE reduction associated with smoking. Thus, smoking prevention could significantly reduce deaths from respiratory disease and improve LE.