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China has a vast territory, so the energy resource endowments of different regions in the country are significantly varied. Promoting regional energy revolution based on local conditions is an effective way to break the bottlenecks that restrict China’s energy development. This study analyzes the current situation of energy development from the aspects of energy production, consumption, and distribution, and investigates the differences regarding energy consumption intensity and the driving force for energy consumption growth in the core regions (i.e., the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region, Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, old industrial bases, the Central China, energy-rich areas, and Southwest China). The medium- and long-term energy development trends and strategic focuses of these regions by 2035 are analyzed. Specifically, the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region should focus on the coordinated development of energy, economy, and environment; an energy system with regional linkage should be formed and optimized in the Yangtze River Delta; the Pearl River Delta can strive to build itself as a clean energy production, storage, and transportation base; economic transformation should be promoted in the old industrial bases through value increment and diversification of energy resources; Central China should establish itself as an integrated energy hub; the energy-rich areas should build itself as a green and sustainable energy security base; and clean energy consumption should be encouraged in Southwest China. To coordinate energy development in various regions, China should fully consider the significant differences in local conditions, promote social development and ecologicalprotection with the regional energy revolution, and encourage regional cooperation in energy.

Possession of motor vehicles in China has been rising fast, along with continuous economic growth, social development and improvements in living standards, causing severe energy and environmental stress. To relieve the stress, China is promoting electric vehicles as good alternatives to conventional vehicles. By 2020, the accumulated production and sales of electric vehicles are expected to reach five million. Large-scale connection of electric vehicles to the power grid would inevitably bring challenges to the power sector. In this paper, an electric vehicle and multi-region load-dispatch grid-structure-based (EVMLG) mathematical model is presented, aiming to investigate the interaction between electric vehicles and the power sector. Impacts of charging behaviors are carefully considered. Through case studies, we conclude that (1) the development of electric vehicles will influence regional generation portfolio and operation pattern of the power sector, and increase the utilization of renewables, (2) guided charging can adapt to the power sector, and lead to better economic and environmental benefits, (3) electric vehicles are suitable to be deployed in resource-rich regions, and (4) the development potential of electric vehicles in China is huge from the viewpoint of power supply capacity.

The low-carbon development of China’s iron and steel industry (ISI) is important but challenging work for the attainment of China’s carbon neutrality by 2060. However, most previous studies related to the low-carbon development of China’s ISI are fragmented from different views such as production-side mitigation, demand-side mitigation, or mitigation technologies. Additionally, there is still a lack of a comprehensive overview of the long-term pathway to the low-carbon development of China’s ISI. To respond to this gap and to contribute to better guide policymaking in China, this paper conducted a timely and comprehensive review following the technology roadmap framework covering the status quo, future vision, and key actions of the low-carbon development of the world and China’s ISI. First, this paper provides an overview of the technology roadmap of low-carbon development around the main steel production countries in the world. Second, the potential for key decarbonization actions available for China’s ISI are evaluated in detail. Third, policy and research recommendations are put forward for the future low-carbon development of China’s ISI. Through this comprehensive review, four key actions can be applied to the low-carbon development of China’s ISI: improving energy efficiency, shifting to Scrap/EAF route, promoting material efficiency strategy, and deploying radical innovation technologies.

This manuscript analyzes the influencing factors of energy consumption growth in Guangdong Province using the logarithmic mean Divisia index I (LMDI) decomposition method developed based on the physical processes of energy utilization from the primary energy supply to end-use sectors. By introducing the input-output method for mapping the energy allocation diagrams of Guangdong Province, we derive the primary energy quantity conversion factors, which establish the connection between end-use energy consumption and primary energy consumption. These factors are used to develop an LMDI decomposition method suitable for analyzing the energy consumption growth of this region. The method is subsequently applied to analyze the factors influencing energy consumption growth in Guangdong Province from 2004 to 2014. The results indicate that the growth of GDP per capita and population are the dominant factors driving energy consumption growth, while the improvement of electricity supply efficiency is the main factor inhibiting energy consumption growth.

This paper aims to present a full picture of the current status and future trends of China's iron ore development using system analysis on the iron supply chain. First, we map China's iron flow to present the physical patterns of iron ore supply and demand in China. Next, the historical and future trends of iron ore development in China are discussed from four aspects including demand, resource availability, technology improvement, and strategy and policy. Based on these aspects, we conclude how to sustainably obtain overseas iron ore resources at a reasonable price as the key issue, and this issue is further analyzed from perspectives of market structure, the pricing mechanism, and Chinese steel companies’ behavior. In conclusion, we determined China must enhance cooperation with the main global suppliers, expand overseas investments effectively, and enhance domestic coordination to secure the import of resources and reduce price fluctuations.

Energy revolution is important for realizing the coordinated development of energy system, economic society, and ecological environment. Energy strategies significantly influence the process of national and regional energy revolutions. In this article, we propose a systemic analysis method for energy strategies called SEGO (i.e., sustainable development, energy system, governance of society, and operation of market). Based on this, the global energy transition and China’s energy revolution strategy are analyzed from four aspects: energy challenge, energy system, energy governance, and energy market as well as their relationship. The results show that the world faces multiple energy challenges regarding energy equity, energy security, and green energy. Meanwhile, lack of strong energy governance has led to a low progress of the global energy transition. China is expected to play a more active role in promoting global energy transition. Although China has achieved less energy consumption and less emissions in its development, it still faces severe challenges in multiple aspects such as energy system integration. China should focus on the overall optimization and fine management of its energy system while considering economic development and ecological protection. The co-construction, sharing, and co-adjustment should be further coordinated among different types of energy networks. Moreover, disruptive innovation in new energy technologies and industries should be encouraged.

With increasing needs for the development of both smart cities and smart energy systems, the intersection concept of smart energy city (SEC) have been emerged in recent years. However, there is still lack of discussions on this concept with the background of developing countries. With serious challenges of urbanization and energy, China can provide a prominent case to further deep the understanding of this concept in the background of a rapidly developing country. This manuscript aims to propose and define a new concept of smart energy towns (SET) according to recent theoretical progress and China's practical experience on SEC. First, we reviewed the connotations of smart city, smart energy systems, and smart energy city, and then derive a definition of SET according to China's national conditions. Second, we introduced the status quo of SET projects in China, and identify the gaps and barriers to development SET as compared with the definition. Finally, from the view of four stakeholders, including China's central government, international organization, China's regional government, and enterprises, we put forward some actions recommendations for the development of China's SET. The main findings are that compared with SEC, SET emphasizes the importance of overall planning of energy and urbanization, as well as promoting business model innovation to support economic development. The main barriers to the development of SET in China lies in the lack of planning and policy support for local projects by regional governments, as well as the lack of funds and capacity of local enterprises to carry out project construction. To this end, stakeholders must work together to help cities and towns strengthen project planning and policy research, as well as jointly strengthen investment and explore practical business models suitable for each region to promote the development of SET in China.

Greenhouse gas emissions in China have been increasing in line with its energy consumption and economic growth. Major means for energy-related greenhouse gases mitigation in the foreseeable future are transition to less carbon intensive energy supplies and structural changes in energy consumption. In this paper, a bottom-up model is built to examine typical projected scenarios for energy supply and demand, with which trends of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by 2050 can be analyzed. Results show that low-carbon technologies remain essential contributors to reducing emissions and altering emissions trends up to 2050. By pushing the limit of current practicality, emissions reduction can reach 20 to 28 percent and the advent of carbon peaking could shift from 2040 to 2030. In addition, the effect of electrification at end-use sectors is studied. Results show that electrifying transport could reduce emissions and bring the advent of carbon peaking forward, but the effect is less significant compared with low-carbon technologies. Moreover, it implies the importance of decarbonizing power supply before electrifying end-use sectors.

This paper proposed a COSM (cost-optimization superstructure model) and derived the optimized oil-saving pathways for road freight transportation in China until 2030. The optimization target of the COSM was to minimize the accumulated energy and vehicle costs from 2010 to 2030 by choosing the most cost-effective fuel option for newly registered trucks each year. Based on the COSM, three scenarios were developed to evaluate the oil-saving pathway in terms of imported crude oil price, available alternative fuels and GHG emission reduction. The scenario analysis results indicate that: (1) for scenario A, the accumulated oil-saving potential was approximately about 13%, while the oil-saving potential of improving fuel consumption rate and load running rate was 17% and 16%; (2) for scenario B, the accumulated oil-saving potential increased to 82% in reference oil price and 23% in low oil price; (3) for scenario C, to reduce per ton of GHG emission, the increased cost will increase from 34 USD to 450 USD when the GHG emission target decreased from 15.4 billion tons to the turn point of 13.5 billion tons.

In this paper, we aim to fill the research gap by analyzing the relationship between China’s domestic investment and energy consumption, as well as related carbon emissions. First, we use an expenditure-approach-based framework to qualitatively examine the effects of China’s domestic investment on its energy consumption. Based on this framework, we define and differentiate the investment-driven energy consumption and carbon emissions from that which is driven by other economic activities. Second, we establish an allocation model to quantify China’s investment-driven energy consumption and carbon emissions. The results reveal that in 2007, China’s domestic investment contributed one third of both its energy consumption and carbon emissions. Further results show that a majority of this investment-driven energy consumption and carbon emissions, namely nine tenths of the total, is attributable to the construction and manufacturing sectors. Finally, we use the construction sector as a case to discuss how to determine the energy-saving and emission-reduction potential of improving investment-driven energy consumption practices.

A great challenge China's power sector faces is to mitigate its carbon emissions whilst satisfying the ever-increasing power demand. Optimal planning of the power sector with consideration of carbon mitigation for a long-term future remains a complex task, involving many technical alternatives and an infinite number of possible plants installations, retrofitting, and decommissioning over the planning horizon. Previously the authors built a multi-period optimization model for the planning of China's power sector during 2010–2050. Based on that model, this paper executed calculations on the optimal pathways of China's power sector with two typical decision-making modes, which are based on “full-information” and “limited-information” hypothesis, and analyzed the impacts on the optimal planning results by two typical types of carbon tax policies including a “continuous and stable” one and a “loose first and tight later” one. The results showed that making carbon tax policy for long-term future, and improving the continuity and stability in policy execution can effectively help reduce the accumulated total carbon emissions, and also the cost for carbon mitigation of the power sector. The conclusion of this study is of great significance for the policy makers to make carbon mitigation policies in China and other countries as well.

In this paper, we present a process-based model to estimate the well-to-tank (WTT) costs of vehicle fuels (gasoline and diesel). The model breaks down the WTT process into four stages, i.e., crude oil sourcing (import and extraction), crude oil transportation, crude oil refining, and vehicle fuel transportation and distribution, which can provide high-resolution data for the WTT cost components. Using this model, we further develop an empirical study of China. The results obtained from the study indicate that the price of imported crude oil is the dominant factor affecting the WTT costs of vehicle fuels in China and that the cost of crude oil refining also has a relatively large influence. By comparing the costs with the prices of vehicle fuels under the volatile price of imported crude oil, we illustrate the unstable margin caused by China’s current pricing policy, which causes a distorted price signal and fiscal risks. The key findings derived from the empirical study reveal that the WTT cost is an essential guide for altering the vehicle fuel price with the aim of not only smoothing the impacts caused by the volatile price of crude oil price but also reflecting the correct oil price signal and reducing the fiscal risks.

In this paper, we propose a simplified method and build a model accordingly for estimating the energy-saving potentials of building construction and demolition with the consideration of China's rapid growth of building construction and its short actual lifespan of buildings. To demonstrate the practicability of the proposed method and model, we further develop an illustrative case study to estimate the energy-saving potentials from residential building sector in China. Our results show that a considerable amount of energy-saving potentials can be captured from now until 2020, 2030, or 2050 by smooth implementation of either controlling the growth in demand for the per capita residential building floor area or extending the actual lifespan of the residential buildings in China. Through this study, we fill the gap, in terms of method and model, of supporting the further improvement of China's existing energy conservation policies.

A new concept of ‘low-carbon towns’ (LCTs) has emerged in the urban planning and development of China in recent years to face the challenge of global climate change. This manuscript presents the current status, basic concepts, and town practices for the development of LCTs in China. First, we summarize the driving forces and regional activities for the development of LCTs in China; then, we introduce the town types and related programs. We propose the definition of a Chinese LCT and the main approaches to developing Chinese LCTs through a system analysis revealing what they are and how they may be developed in a Chinese context. The proposed approaches to develop Chinese LCTs include economic, social, layout, technology, and reuse approaches, each of which is introduced in the context of typical town planning and management in China.

The future of oil has become an important topic of the discussion of energy policy in China. This paper attempts to present a full picture of the current status and future trends of China’s oil development through system analysis. First, we map a Sankey diagram of China’s oil flow to reveal the physical pattern of China’s oil supply and consumption. Then, we present the historical and ongoing trends of China’s oil flow from key aspects such as oil demand, oil resource availability, technology improvement, and policy adjustment. Based on these understandings, we design three scenarios of China’s oil demand in 2030, and analyze policy implications for oil saving, automotive energy development, and energy security. From the analysis, we draw some conclusions for policy decisions, such as to control the total oil consumption to avoid energy security risks, to enhance oil saving in all sectors with road transportation as the emphasis, and to increase the investment on oil production and refining to secure oil supply and reduce emissions.

A great challenge China's power sector faces is to mitigate its carbon dioxide emissions while satisfying the ever-increasing power demand. Optimal planning of the power sector with consideration of carbon mitigation for a long-term future remains a complex task, involving many technical alternatives and an infinite number of possible plants installations, retrofitting, and decommissioning over the planning horizon. This paper presents a multi-period modelling and optimization framework for the optimal planning of China's power sector between 2010 and 2050. The planning horizon is divided into several time intervals, over which power plants of all types can be installed, retrofitted, or closed. Impacts of carbon mitigation related measures, including carbon cap and price, application of carbon capture and sequestration, are explicitly represented. A case study follows, based on real-life data of existing capacity of China's power sector in 2009, and a year-by-year development plan for China's power sector is proposed.

Power sector is the largest CO2 emitter in China. To mitigate CO2 emissions for the power sector is a tough task, which requires implementation of targeted carbon mitigation policies. There might be multiple forms for carbon mitigation policies and it is still unclear which one is the best for China. Applying a superstructure optimisation model for optimal planning of China's power sector built by the authors previously, which was based on real-life plants composition data of China's power sector in 2009, and could incorporate all possible actions of the power sector, including plants construction, decommission, and application of carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) on coal-fuelled plants, the implementation effects of three carbon mitigation policies were studied quantitatively, achieving a conclusion that the so-called “Surplus-Punishment & Deficit-Award” carbon tax policy is the best from the viewpoint of increasing CO2 reduction effect and also reducing the accumulated total cost. Based on this conclusion, the corresponding relationships between CO2 reduction objectives (including the accumulated total emissions reduction by the objective year and the annual emissions reduction in the objective year) were presented in detail. This work provides both directional and quantitative suggestions for China to make carbon mitigation policies in the future.

Carbon dioxide capture and sequestration (CCS) is considered to be an important option for climate change mitigation. A key problem for the implementation of CCS technology is the source-sink match design and optimization when considering both economic and environmental requirement. This paper presents a generic-optimization-based model for the strategic planning and design of future CCS source-sink matching. The features and capabilities of the model are illustrated through a detailed case study for the Jing-Jin-Ji (Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei Province) region in China. It shows how the model helps make a compromise in arriving at a strategic decision for CCS source-sink matching by providing the tradeoff frontiers between economic and environmental performance, and the features of match solutions with the best economic performance or with the best environmental performance.

With electricity demand growing at a torrid pace—about 15% per year, faster than any other country in the world—China is fast-tracking the construction of new generation facilities, about 80% of which are coal-fired. China's total capacity in the reference scenario of World Energy Outlook 2006 (WEO2006) released by the International Energy Agency (IEA) is projected to practically 3.4 times, from 442 GW in 2004 to 1496 GW in 2030, growing at 4.8% per year on average. The vast majority of this huge generation requirement will still be met through the construction of coal power plants. Because new coal power plants built today have a long life cycle and are not easy to upgrade the technologies involved, decisions made now will have a major impact on the coal utilization mode in the coming years. Thus, the future 20 years is the strategic opportunity period of the transition of conventional coal utilization. Because the Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) can supply electricity, liquid fuels, hydrogen and other chemicals if needed at low pollution level, and has the potential to make carbon capture and sequestration much easier and cheaper than traditional pulverized coal boiler power plants, it should be the strategic direction for China to meet the requirements of the energy and environmental challenges. This paper makes an overview of China's energy and environmental challenges and opportunities, and describes the IGCC technology. It discusses why China should develop IGCC. What are the foundations for China to develop IGCC? What are the rational driving forces to develop IGCC in China? What is the reasonable developing path of IGCC in China?

Transportation demand in China has experienced rapid development and transformation in recent years, which has led to enormous energy consumption and environmental emissions. The aim of this manuscript is to construct a hybrid model to forecast future transportation demand in China that combines the advantages of existing methodologies. We first review previous studies to summarise the main categories, advantages and disadvantages, and results of various methodologies for forecasting transportation demand. Based on this review, we develop a hybrid model based on the GDP elastic coefficient method, which uses the mode split method and vehicle population method and includes three modules: the vehicle population module, the passenger traffic module and the freight traffic module. Using this model, a forecast of transportation service demand in China in 2030 is derived and compared with other studies. According to the results, vehicle ownership, passenger transportation demand, and freight transportation demand will continue to experience rapid growth. The total traffic volume, the share of aviation in passenger traffic and the share of water in freight traffic are very sensitive to the GDP growth rate.