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Background: Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) patients have a risk of developing cholangiocarcinoma (CCA). Establishing predictive models for CCA in PSC is important., Methods: In a large cohort of 1,459 PSC patients seen at Mayo Clinic (1993-2020), we quantified the impact of clinical/laboratory variables on CCA development using univariate and multivariate Cox models and predicted CCA using statistical and artificial intelligence (AI) approaches. We explored plasma bile acid (BA) levels' predictive power of CCA (subset of 300 patients, BA cohort)., Results: Eight significant risk factors (false discovery rate: 20%) were identified with univariate analysis; prolonged inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) was the most important one. IBD duration, PSC duration, and total bilirubin remained significant (p < 0.05) with multivariate analysis. Clinical/laboratory variables predicted CCA with cross-validated C-indexes of 0.68-0.71 at different time points of disease, significantly better compared to commonly used PSC risk scores. Lower chenodeoxycholic acid, higher conjugated fraction of lithocholic acid and hyodeoxycholic acid, and higher ratio of cholic acid to chenodeoxycholic acid were predictive of CCA. BAs predicted CCA with a cross-validated C-index of 0.66 (std: 0.11, BA cohort), similar to clinical/laboratory variables (C-index = 0.64, std: 0.11, BA cohort). Combining BAs with clinical/laboratory variables leads to the best average C-index of 0.67 (std: 0.13, BA cohort)., Conclusions: In a large PSC cohort, we identified clinical and laboratory risk factors for CCA development and demonstrated the first AI based predictive models that performed significantly better than commonly used PSC risk scores. More predictive data modalities are needed for clinical adoption of these models., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Objectives: Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) often coexists with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) and can be complicated by cholangiocarcinoma (CCA), a lethal malignancy for which reliable predictors remain unknown. We aimed to characterize the influence of colectomy and IBD duration on risk of CCA in patients with PSC-IBD., Methods: A retrospective review of patients with PSC-IBD seen at the Mayo Clinic, Rochester, between January 2005 and May 2013 was performed. The primary outcome was time to development of CCA and our goal was to determine whether the risk differed between patients with and without colectomy. Risk factors were assessed using univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazard models where colectomy, IBD disease duration, and development of advanced liver disease were treated as time-dependent covariates., Results: A total of 399 patients with PSC-IBD were included in the study, of whom 137 had a colectomy and 123 patients developed CCA. Age-adjusted univariate Cox proportional hazard models demonstrated that colectomy (hazard ratio (HR) 1.53, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.05-2.22, P=0.02) and duration of IBD (HR 1.37, 95% CI 1.15-1.63, P<0.01) were associated with an increased risk of CCA, and colonic neoplasia (HR 1.52, 95% CI 0.97-2.37, P=0.06) and colectomy for colonic neoplasia (HR 1.62, 95% CI 1.01-2.61, P=0.05) approached significance. Among patients with a history of colectomy, colonic neoplasia as the indication for surgery was associated with a particularly increased risk of CCA (HR 2.91, 95% CI 1.24-6.84, P=0.01) compared with medically refractory disease. On multivariate analysis, duration of IBD remained significantly associated with CCA (HR 1.33, 95% CI 1.11-1.60, P<0.01). The influence of IBD duration on CCA risk was not modified after colectomy (P=0.69)., Conclusions: Prolonged duration of IBD is associated with an increased risk of CCA in patients with PSC-IBD, and colectomy itself does not modify this risk. These findings identify a subset of patients who are at high risk of this lethal complication and in need of close surveillance., Competing Interests: Guarantor of the article: Konstantinos N. Lazaridis, MD. Specific author contributions: Aliya F. Gulamhusein was involved in planning and conducting the study, collecting and interpreting data, and drafting and revising the manuscript. John E. Eaton was involved in planning and conducting the study, collecting and interpreting data, and drafting the manuscript. James H. Tabibian was involved in planning the study, interpreting data, and drafting the manuscript. Elizabeth J. Atkinson was involved in conducting the study, interpreting data, and drafting the manuscript. Brian D. Juran was involved in planning and conducting the study, interpreting data, and drafting and revising the manuscript. Konstantinos N. Lazaridis was involved in planning and conducting the study, collecting and interpreting data, and drafting and revising the manuscript. All authors have approved the final draft submitted. Financial support: This work was supported by a grant to Konstantinos N. Lazaridis from the National Institutes of Health R01 DK84960, the A.J. and Sigismunda Palumbo Charitable Trust, the Chris M. and Nicole Jockisch Carlos, and the Thalia N. and Chris M. Foundation. Potential competing interests: None.

Genetic risk factors for cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) remain poorly understood. We assessed the effect of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of genes modulating inflammation or carcinogenesis on CCA risk and survival. We conducted a case-control, candidate gene association study of 370 CCA patients and 740 age-, sex-, and residential area-matched healthy controls. Eighteen functional or putatively functional SNPs in nine genes were genotyped. The log-additive genotype effects of SNPs on CCA risk and survival were determined using logistic regression and the log-rank test, respectively. Initial analysis identified significant associations between SNP rs2143417 and rs689466 in cyclooxygenase 2 (COX-2) and CCA risk, after adjusting for multiple comparisons (cutoff of P = 0.0028). However, these findings were not replicated in another independent cohort of 212 CCA cases and 424 matched controls. No significant association was found between any SNP and survival of CCA patients. Although COX-2 has been shown to contribute to cholangiocarcinogenesis, the COX-2 SNPs tested were not associated with risk of CCA. This study shows a lack of association between variants of genes related to inflammation and carcinogenesis and CCA risk and survival. Other factors than these genetic variants may play more important roles in CCA risk and survival., (© 2015 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background and Aim Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) typically develops in middle-age adults. Little is known about phenotypic differences when PSC is diagnosed at various ages. Therefore, we sought to compare the clinical characteristics of a large PSC cohort based on the age when PSC was diagnosed. Methods We performed a multicenter retrospective review to compare the features of PSC among those diagnosed between 1-19 ( n = 95), 20-59 ( n = 662), and 60-79 years ( n = 102). Results Those with an early diagnosis (ED) of PSC were more likely to have small-duct PSC (13%) than those with a middle-age diagnosis (MD) (5%) and late diagnosis (LD) groups (2%), P < 0.01, and appeared to have a decrease risk of hepatobiliary malignancies: ED versus MD: hazard ratio (HR), 0.25; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.06-1.03, and ED versus LD: HR, 0.07; 95% CI 0.01-0.62. Cholangiocarcinoma was diagnosed in 78 subjects (ED n = 0, MD n = 66, and LD n = 12) and was more likely to be diagnosed within a year after the PSC diagnosis among those found to have PSC late in life: ED 0% (0/95), MD 2% (14/662), and LD 6% (6/102), P = 0.02. Similarly, hepatic decompensation was more common among those with LD-PSC versus younger individuals: LD versus MD: HR, 1.64; 95% CI 0.98-2.70, and LD versus ED: HR, 2.26; 95% CI 1.02-5.05. Conclusions Those diagnosed with PSC early in life are more likely to have small-duct PSC and less likely to have disease-related complications. Clinicians should be vigilant for underlying cholangiocarcinoma among those with PSC diagnosed late in life. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]