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Background: Despite advance in science and technology for prevention, detection and treatment of cholera, this infectious disease remains a major public health problem in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, Uganda inclusive. The aim of this study was to identify cholera hotspots in Uganda to guide the development of a roadmap for prevention, control and elimination of cholera in the country. Methodology/Principle findings: We obtained district level confirmed cholera outbreak data from 2011 to 2016 from the Ministry of Health, Uganda. Population and rainfall data were obtained from the Uganda Bureau of Statistics, and water, sanitation and hygiene data from the Ministry of Water and Environment. A spatial scan test was performed to identify the significantly high risk clusters. Cholera hotspots were defined as districts whose center fell within a significantly high risk cluster or where a significantly high risk cluster was completely superimposed onto a district. A zero-inflated negative binomial regression model was employed to identify the district level risk factors for cholera. In total 11,030 cases of cholera were reported during the 6-year period. 37(33%) of 112 districts reported cholera outbreaks in one of the six years, and 20 (18%) districts experienced cholera at least twice in those years. We identified 22 districts as high risk for cholera, of which 13 were near a border of Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), while 9 districts were near a border of Kenya. The relative risk of having cholera inside the high-risk districts (hotspots) were 2 to 22 times higher than elsewhere in the country. In total, 7 million people were within cholera hotspots. The negative binomial component of the ZINB model shows people living near a lake or the Nile river were at increased risk for cholera (incidence rate ratio, IRR = 0.98, 95% CI: 0.97 to 0.99, p < .01); people living near the border of DRC/Kenya or higher incidence rate in the neighboring districts were increased risk for cholera in a district (IRR = 0.99, 95% CI: 0.98 to 1.00, p = .02 and IRR = 1.02, 95% CI: 1.01 to 1.03, p < .01, respectively). The zero inflated component of the ZINB model yielded shorter distance to Kenya or DRC border, higher incidence rate in the neighboring districts, and higher annual rainfall in the district were associated with the risk of having cholera in the district. Conclusions/significance: The study identified cholera hotspots during the period 2011–2016. The people located near the international borders, internationally shared lakes and river Nile were at higher risk for cholera outbreaks than elsewhere in the country. Targeting cholera interventions to these locations could prevent and ultimately eliminate cholera in Uganda. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Even though cholera has existed for centuries and many parts of the country have sporadic, endemic and epidemic cholera, it is still an under-recognized health problem in India. A Cholera Expert Group in the country was established to gather evidence and to prepare a road map for control of cholera in India. This paper identifies cholera burden hotspots and factors associated with an increased risk of the disease. Methodology/Principle findings: We acquired district level data on cholera case reports of 2010–2015 from the Integrated Disease Surveillance Program. Socioeconomic characteristics and coverage of water and sanitation was obtained from the 2011 census. Spatial analysis was performed to identify cholera hotspots, and a zero-inflated Poisson regression was employed to identify the factors associated with cholera and predicted case count in the district. 27,615 cholera cases were reported during the 6-year period. Twenty-four of 36 states of India reported cholera during these years, and 13 states were classified as endemic. Of 641 districts, 78 districts in 15 states were identified as “hotspots” based on the reported cases. On the other hand, 111 districts in nine states were identified as “hotspots” from model-based predicted number of cases. The risk for cholera in a district was negatively associated with the coverage of literate persons, households using treated water source and owning mobile telephone, and positively associated with the coverage of poor sanitation and drainage conditions and urbanization level in the district. Conclusions/Significance: The study reaffirms that cholera continues to occur throughout a large part of India and identifies the burden hotspots and risk factors. Policymakers may use the findings of the article to develop a roadmap for prevention and control of cholera in India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Vaccinating a buffer of individuals around a case (ring vaccination) has the potential to target those who are at highest risk of infection, reducing the number of doses needed to control a disease. We explored the potential vaccine effectiveness (VE) of oral cholera vaccines (OCVs) for such a strategy.Methods and Findings: This analysis uses existing data from a cluster-randomized clinical trial in which OCV or placebo was given to 71,900 participants in Kolkata, India, from 27 July to 10 September 2006. Cholera surveillance was then conducted on 144,106 individuals living in the study area, including trial participants, for 5 y following vaccination. First, we explored the risk of cholera among contacts of cholera patients, and, second, we measured VE among individuals living within 25 m of cholera cases between 8 and 28 d after onset of the index case. For the first analysis, individuals living around each index case identified during the 5-y period were assembled using a ring to define cohorts of individuals exposed to cholera index cases. An index control without cholera was randomly selected for each index case from the same population, matched by age group, and individuals living around each index control were assembled using a ring to define cohorts not exposed to cholera cases. Cholera attack rates among the exposed and non-exposed cohorts were compared using different distances from the index case/control to define the rings and different time frames to define the period at risk. For the VE analysis, the exposed cohorts were further stratified according to the level of vaccine coverage into high and low coverage strata. Overall VE was assessed by comparing the attack rates between high and low vaccine coverage strata irrespective of individuals' vaccination status, and indirect VE was assessed by comparing the attack rates among unvaccinated members between high and low vaccine coverage strata. Cholera risk among the cohort exposed to cholera cases was 5-11 times higher than that among the cohort not exposed to cholera cases. The risk gradually diminished with an increase in distance and time. The overall and indirect VE measured between 8 and 28 d after exposure to a cholera index case during the first 2 y was 91% (95% CI 62%-98%) and 93% (95% CI 44%-99%), respectively. VE persisted for 5 y after vaccination and was similar whether the index case was a young child (<5 y) or was older. Of note, this study was a reanalysis of a cholera vaccine trial that used two doses; thus, a limitation of the study relates to the assumption that a single dose, if administered quickly, will induce a similar level of total and indirect protection over the short term as did two doses.Conclusions: These findings suggest that high-level protection can be achieved if individuals living close to cholera cases are living in a high coverage ring. Since this was an observational study including participants who had received two doses of vaccine (or placebo) in the clinical trial, further studies are needed to determine whether a ring vaccination strategy, in which vaccine is given quickly to those living close to a case, is feasible and effective.Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00289224. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The global burden of cholera is largely unknown because the majority of cases are not reported. The low reporting can be attributed to limited capacity of epidemiological surveillance and laboratories, as well as social, political, and economic disincentives for reporting. We previously estimated 2.8 million cases and 91,000 deaths annually due to cholera in 51 endemic countries. A major limitation in our previous estimate was that the endemic and non-endemic countries were defined based on the countries’ reported cholera cases. We overcame the limitation with the use of a spatial modelling technique in defining endemic countries, and accordingly updated the estimates of the global burden of cholera. Methods/Principal Findings: Countries were classified as cholera endemic, cholera non-endemic, or cholera-free based on whether a spatial regression model predicted an incidence rate over a certain threshold in at least three of five years (2008-2012). The at-risk populations were calculated for each country based on the percent of the country without sustainable access to improved sanitation facilities. Incidence rates from population-based published studies were used to calculate the estimated annual number of cases in endemic countries. The number of annual cholera deaths was calculated using inverse variance-weighted average case-fatality rate (CFRs) from literature-based CFR estimates. We found that approximately 1.3 billion people are at risk for cholera in endemic countries. An estimated 2.86 million cholera cases (uncertainty range: 1.3m-4.0m) occur annually in endemic countries. Among these cases, there are an estimated 95,000 deaths (uncertainty range: 21,000-143,000). Conclusion/Significance: The global burden of cholera remains high. Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for the majority of this burden. Our findings can inform programmatic decision-making for cholera control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Despite advancement of our knowledge, cholera remains a public health concern. During March-April 2010, a large cholera outbreak afflicted the eastern part of Kolkata, India. The quantification of importance of socio-environmental factors in the risk of cholera, and the calculation of the risk is fundamental for deploying vaccination strategies. Here we investigate socio-environmental characteristics between high and low risk areas as well as the potential impact of vaccination on the spatial occurrence of the disease. Methods and Findings: The study area comprised three wards of Kolkata Municipal Corporation. A mass cholera vaccination campaign was conducted in mid-2006 as the part of a clinical trial. Cholera cases and data of the trial to identify high risk areas for cholera were analyzed. We used a generalized additive model (GAM) to detect risk areas, and to evaluate the importance of socio-environmental characteristics between high and low risk areas. During the one-year pre-vaccination and two-year post-vaccination periods, 95 and 183 cholera cases were detected in 111,882 and 121,827 study participants, respectively. The GAM model predicts that high risk areas in the west part of the study area where the outbreak largely occurred. High risk areas in both periods were characterized by poor people, use of unsafe water, and proximity to canals used as the main drainage for rain and waste water. Cholera vaccine uptake was significantly lower in the high risk areas compared to low risk areas. Conclusion: The study shows that even a parsimonious model like GAM predicts high risk areas where cholera outbreaks largely occurred. This is useful for indicating where interventions would be effective in controlling the disease risk. Data showed that vaccination decreased the risk of infection. Overall, the GAM-based risk map is useful for policymakers, especially those from countries where cholera remains to be endemic with periodic outbreaks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: During the development of a vaccine, identification of the correlates of protection is of paramount importance for establishing an objective criterion for the protective performance of the vaccine. However, the ascertainment of correlates of immunity conferred by any vaccine is a difficult task. Methods: While conducting a phase three double-blind, cluster-randomized, placebo-controlled trial of a bivalent killed whole-cell oral cholera vaccine in Kolkata, we evaluated the immunogenicity of the vaccine in a subset of participants. Randomly chosen participants (recipients of vaccine or placebo) were invited to provide blood samples at baseline, 14 days after the second dose and one year after the first dose. At these time points, serum geometric mean titers (GMT) of vibriocidal antibodies and seroconversion rates for vaccine and placebo arms were calculated and compared across the age strata (1 to 5 years, 5 to 15 years and more than 15 years) as well as for all age groups. Results: Out of 137 subjects included in analysis, 69 were vaccinees and 68 received placebo. There were 5•7 and 5•8 geometric mean fold (GMF) rises in titers to Vibrio cholerae Inaba and Ogawa, respectively at 14 days after the second dose, with 57% and 61% of vaccinees showing a four-fold or greater titer rise, respectively. After one year, the titers to Inaba and Ogawa remained 1•7 and 2•8 fold higher, respectively, compared to baseline. Serum vibriocidal antibody response to V. cholerae O139 was much lower than that to Inaba or Ogawa. No significant differences in the GMF-rises were observed among the age groups. Conclusions: The reformulated oral cholera vaccine induced a statistically significant anti-O1 Inaba and O1 Ogawa vibriocidal antibody response 14 days after vaccination, which although declined after one year remained significantly higher than baseline. Despite this decline, the vaccine remained protective five years after vaccination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This open-label study assessed the safety and immunogenicity of two doses (14 days apart) of an indigenously manufactured, killed, bivalent (Vibrio cholerae O1 and O139), whole-cell oral cholera vaccine (SHANCHOL; Shantha Biotechnics) in healthy adults (n = 100) and children (n = 100) in a cholera endemic area (Vellore, South India) to fulfill post-licensure regulatory requirements and post-World Health Organization (WHO) prequalification commitments. Safety and reactogenicity were assessed, and seroconversion rates (i.e. proportion of participants with a ≥ 4-fold rise from baseline in serum vibriocidal antibody titers against V. cholerae O1 Inaba, O1 Ogawa and O139, respectively) were determined 14 days after each vaccine dose. No serious adverse events were reported during the study. Commonly reported solicited adverse events were headache and general ill feeling. Seroconversion rates after the first and second dose in adults were 67.7% and 55.2%, respectively, against O1 Inaba; 47.9% and 45.8% against O1 Ogawa; and 19.8% and 20.8% against O139. In children, seroconversion rates after the first and second dose were 80.2% and 68.8%, respectively, against O1 Inaba; 72.9% and 67.7% against O1 Ogawa; and 26.0% and 18.8% against O139. The geometric mean titers against O1 Inaba, O1 Ogawa, and O139 in both adults and children were significantly higher after each vaccine dose compared to baseline titers (P < 0.001; for both age groups after each dose versus baseline). The seroconversion rates for O1 Inaba, O1 Ogawa, and O139 in both age groups were similar to those in previous studies with the vaccine. In conclusion, the killed, bivalent, whole-cell oral cholera vaccine has a good safety and reactogenicity profile, and is immunogenic in healthy adults and children. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov ; CTRI/2012/01/002354. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analyses of stool from patients with acute watery diarrhea (AWD) using sensitive molecular diagnostics have challenged whether fecal microbiological cultures have acceptably high sensitivity for cholera diagnosis. If true, these findings imply that current estimates of the global burden of cholera, which rely largely on culture-confirmation, may be underestimates. We conducted a vaccine probe study to evaluate this possibility, assessing whether an effective killed oral cholera vaccine (OCV) tested in a field trial in a cholera-endemic population conferred protection against cholera culture-negative AWD, with the assumption that if cultures are indeed insensitive, OCV protection in such cases should be detectable. We re-analysed the data of a Phase III individually-randomized placebo-controlled efficacy trial of killed OCVs conducted in Matlab, Bangladesh in 1985. We calculated the protective efficacy (PE) of a killed whole cell-only (WC-only) OCV against first-episodes of cholera culture-negative AWD during two years of post-dosing follow-up. In secondary analyses, we evaluated PE against cholera culture-negative AWD by age at vaccination, season of onset, and disease severity. In this trial 50,770 people received at least 2 complete doses of either WC-only OCV or placebo, and 791 first episodes of AWD were reported during the follow-up period, of which 365 were culture-positive for Vibrio cholerae O1. Of the 426 culture-negative AWD episodes, 215 occurred in the WC group and 211 occurred in the placebo group (adjusted PE = -1.7%; 95%CI -23.0 to 13.9%, p = 0.859). No measurable PE of OCV was observed against all or severe cholera culture-negative AWD when measured overall or by age and season subgroups. In this OCV probe study we detected no vaccine protection against AWD episodes for which fecal cultures were negative for Vibrio cholera O1. Results from this setting suggest that fecal cultures from patients with AWD were highly sensitive for cholera episodes that were etiologically attributable to this pathogen. Similar analyses of other OCV randomized controlled trials are recommended to corroborate these findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Cholera remains an important public health problem in major cities in Bangladesh, especially in slum areas. In response to growing interest among local policymakers to control this disease, this study estimated the impact and cost-effectiveness of preventive cholera vaccination over a ten-year period in a high-risk slum population in Dhaka to inform decisions about the use of oral cholera vaccines as a key tool in reducing cholera risk in such populations. Methodology/Principal findings: Assuming use of a two-dose killed whole-cell oral cholera vaccine to be produced locally, the number of cholera cases and deaths averted was estimated for three target group options (1–4 year olds, 1–14 year olds, and all persons 1+), using cholera incidence data from Dhaka, estimates of vaccination coverage rates from the literature, and a dynamic model of cholera transmission based on data from Matlab, which incorporates herd effects. Local estimates of vaccination costs minus savings in treatment costs, were used to obtain incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for one- and ten-dose vial sizes. Vaccinating 1–14 year olds every three years, combined with annual routine vaccination of children, would be the most cost-effective strategy, reducing incidence in this population by 45% (assuming 10% annual migration), and costing was $823 (2015 USD) for single dose vials and $591 (2015 USD) for ten-dose vials per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted. Vaccinating all ages one year and above would reduce incidence by >90%, but would be 50% less cost-effective ($894–1,234/DALY averted). Limiting vaccination to 1–4 year olds would be the least cost-effective strategy (preventing only 7% of cases and costing $1,276-$1,731/DALY averted), due to the limited herd effects of vaccinating this small population and the lower vaccine efficacy in this age group. Conclusions/Significance: Providing cholera vaccine to slum populations in Dhaka through periodic vaccination campaigns would significantly reduce cholera incidence and inequities, and be especially cost-effective if all 1–14 year olds are targeted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Genomic data generated from clinical Vibrio cholerae O1 isolates collected over a five year period in an area of Kolkata, India with seasonal cholera outbreaks allowed a detailed genetic analysis of serotype switching that occurred from Ogawa to Inaba and back to Ogawa. The change from Ogawa to Inaba resulted from mutational disruption of the methyltransferase encoded by the wbeT gene. Re-emergence of the Ogawa serotype was found to result either from expansion of an already existing Ogawa clade or reversion of the mutation in an Inaba clade. Our data suggests that such transitions are not random events but rather driven by as yet unidentified selection mechanisms based on differences in the structure of the O1 antigen or in the serotype-determining wbeT gene. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Despite being a cholera-endemic country, data on cholera in the Philippines remain sparse. Knowing the areas where cholera is known to occur and the factors that lead to its occurrence will assist in planning preventive measures and disaster mitigation. Methods: Using sentinel surveillance data, PubMed and ProMED searches covering information from 2008–2013 and event-based surveillance reports from 2010–2013, we assessed the epidemiology of cholera in the Philippines. Using spatial log regression, we assessed the role of water, sanitation and population density on the incidence of cholera. Results and Discussion: We identified 12 articles from ProMED and none from PubMed that reported on cholera in the Philippines from 2008 to 2013. Data from ProMed and surveillance revealed 42,071 suspected and confirmed cholera cases reported from 2008 to 2013, among which only 5,006 were confirmed. 38 (47%) of 81 provinces and metropolitan regions reported at least one confirmed case of cholera and 32 (40%) reported at least one suspected case. The overall case fatality ratio in sentinel sites was 0.62%, but was 2% in outbreaks. All age groups were affected. Using both confirmed and suspected cholera cases, the average annual incidence in 2010–2013 was 9.1 per 100,000 population. Poor access to improved sanitation was consistently associated with higher cholera incidence. Paradoxically, access to improved water sources was associated with higher cholera incidence using both suspected and confirmed cholera data sources. This finding may have been due to the breakdown in the infrastructure and non-chlorination of water supplies, emphasizing the need to maintain public water systems. Conclusion: Our findings confirm that cholera affects a large proportion of the provinces in the country. Identifying areas most at risk for cholera will support the development and implementation of policies to minimize the morbidity and mortality due to this disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: The substantial morbidity and mortality associated with recent cholera outbreaks in Haiti and Zimbabwe, as well as with cholera endemicity in countries throughout Asia and Africa, make a compelling case for supplementary cholera control measures in addition to existing interventions. Clinical trials conducted in Kolkata, India, have led to World Health Organization (WHO)-prequalification of Shanchol, an oral cholera vaccine (OCV) with a demonstrated 65% efficacy at 5 years post-vaccination. However, before this vaccine is widely used in endemic areas or in areas at risk of outbreaks, as recommended by the WHO, policymakers will require empirical evidence on its implementation and delivery costs in public health programs. The objective of the present report is to describe the organization, vaccine coverage, and delivery costs of mass vaccination with a new, less expensive OCV (Shanchol) using existing public health infrastructure in Odisha, India, as a model. Methods: All healthy, non-pregnant residents aged 1 year and above residing in selected villages of the Satyabadi block (Puri district, Odisha, India) were invited to participate in a mass vaccination campaign using two doses of OCV. Prior to the campaign, a de jure census, micro-planning for vaccination and social mobilization activities were implemented. Vaccine coverage for each dose was ascertained as a percentage of the censused population. The direct vaccine delivery costs were estimated by reviewing project expenditure records and by interviewing key personnel. Results: The mass vaccination was conducted during May and June, 2011, in two phases. In each phase, two vaccine doses were given 14 days apart. Sixty-two vaccination booths, staffed by 395 health workers/volunteers, were established in the community. For the censused population, 31,552 persons (61% of the target population) received the first dose and 23,751 (46%) of these completed their second dose, with a drop-out rate of 25% between the two doses. Higher coverage was observed among females and among 6–17 year-olds. Vaccine cost at market price (about US$1.85/dose) was the costliest item. The vaccine delivery cost was $0.49 per dose or $1.13 per fully vaccinated person. Discussion: This is the first undertaken project to collect empirical evidence on the use of Shanchol within a mass vaccination campaign using existing public health program resources. Our findings suggest that mass vaccination is feasible but requires detailed micro-planning. The vaccine and delivery cost is affordable for resource poor countries. Given that the vaccine is now WHO pre-qualified, evidence from this study should encourage oral cholera vaccine use in countries where cholera remains a public health problem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]