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Few histological prognostic indicators for end-stage renal disease (ESRD) have been validated in diabetic patients. This biopsy-based study aimed to identify nephropathological risk factors for ESRD in Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes. Histological features of 322 Chinese type 2 diabetic patients with biopsy-confirmed diabetic nephropathy (DN) were retrospectively analysed. Cox proportional hazards analysis was used to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) for ESRD. Single glomerular proteomics and immunohistochemistry were used to identify differentially expressed proteins and enriched pathways in glomeruli. During the median follow-up period of 24 months, 144 (45%) patients progressed to ESRD. In multivariable models, the Renal Pathology Society classification failed to predict ESRD, although the solidified glomerulosclerosis (score 1: HR 1.65, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.04–2.60; score 2: HR 2.48, 95% CI 1.40–4.37) and extracapillary hypercellularity (HR 2.68, 95% CI 1.55–4.62) were identified as independent risk factors. Additionally, single glomerular proteomics, combined with immunohistochemistry, revealed that complement C9 and apolipoprotein E were highly expressed in solidified glomerulosclerosis. Therefore, solidified glomerulosclerosis and extracapillary hypercellularity predict diabetic ESRD in Chinese patients. Single glomerular proteomics identified solidified glomerulosclerosis as a unique pathological change that may be associated with complement overactivation and abnormal lipid metabolism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]