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There is limited data on predicting successful chronic total occlusion crossing using primary antegrade wiring (AW). The aim of this study was to develop and validate a machine learning (ML) prognostic model for successful chronic total occlusion crossing using primary AW. We used data from 12,136 primary AW cases performed between 2012 and 2023 at 48 centers in the PROGRESS CTO registry (Prospective Global Registry for the Study of Chronic Total Occlusion Intervention; NCT02061436) to develop 5 ML models. Hyperparameter tuning was performed for the model with the best performance, and the SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) explainer was implemented to estimate feature importance. Primary AW was successful in 6,965 cases (57.4%). Extreme gradient boosting was the best performing ML model with an average area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of 0.775 (± 0.010). After hyperparameter tuning, the average area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of the extreme gradient boosting model was 0.782 in the training set and 0.780 in the testing set. Among the factors examined, occlusion length had the most significant impact on predicting successful primary AW crossing followed by blunt/no stump, presence of interventional collaterals, vessel diameter, and proximal cap ambiguity. In contrast, aorto-ostial lesion location had the least impact on the outcome. A web-based application for predicting successful primary AW wiring crossing is available online (PROGRESS-CTO website) (https://www.progresscto.org/predict-aw-success). We developed an ML model with 14 features and high predictive capacity for successful primary AW in chronic total occlusion percutaneous coronary intervention. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The contemporary frequency and outcomes of antegrade dissection and re-entry (ADR) for chronic total occlusion (CTO) percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) have received limited study. The aim of this study was to determine the frequency and outcomes of ADR use in a large multicenter CTO PCI registry. The characteristics and outcomes of ADR were examined among 12,568 patients who underwent 12,841 CTO PCIs at 46 U.S. and non-U.S. centers between 2012 and 2023. ADR was used in 2,385 of the procedures (18.6%). ADR use declined from 37.9% in 2012 to 14.5% in 2022 (P < 0.001). Patients in whom ADR was used had a high prevalence of comorbidities. Compared with cases that did not use ADR, ADR cases had more complex angiographic characteristics, higher mean J-CTO (Multicenter CTO Registry in Japan) score (2.94 ± 1.11 vs 2.23 ± 1.26; P < 0.001), lower technical success (77.0% vs 89.3%; P < 0.001), and higher in-hospital major adverse cardiac events (3.7% vs 1.6%; P < 0.001). The use of the CrossBoss declined from 71% in 2012 to 1.4% in 2022 and was associated with higher technical success (87%) compared with wire-based techniques (73%). The Stingray device displayed higher technical success (86%) compared with subintimal tracking and re-entry (STAR) (74%) and limited antegrade subintimal tracking (78%); however, its use has been decreasing, with STAR becoming the most used re-entry technique in 2022 (44% STAR vs 38% Stingray). The use of ADR has been decreasing. ADR was used in more complex lesions and was associated with lower technical success and higher major adverse cardiac events compared with non-ADR cases. There has been a decrease in Stingray use and an increase in the use of STAR for re-entry. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coronary calcification is common and increases the difficulty of chronic total occlusion (CTO) percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). We examined the impact of calcium on procedural outcomes of 13,079 CTO PCIs performed in 12,799 patients at 46 US and non-US centers between 2012 and 2023. Moderate or severe calcification was present in 46.6% of CTO lesions. Patients whose lesions were calcified were older and more likely to have had prior coronary artery bypass graft surgery. Calcified lesions were more complex with higher J-CTO score (3.0 ± 1.1 vs. 1.9 ± 1.2; p < 0.001) and lower technical (83.0% vs. 89.9%; p < 0.001) and procedural (81.0% vs. 89.1%; p < 0.001) success rates compared with mildly calcified or non-calcified CTO lesions. The retrograde approach was more commonly used among cases with moderate/severe calcification (40.3% vs. 23.5%; p < 0.001). Balloon angioplasty (76.6%) was the most common lesion preparation technique for calcified lesions, followed by rotational atherectomy (7.3%), laser atherectomy (3.4%) and, intravascular lithotripsy (3.4%). The incidence of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) was higher in cases with moderate or severe calcification (3.0% vs. 1.2%; p < 0.001), as was the incidence of perforation (6.5% vs. 3.4%; p < 0.001). On multivariable analysis, the presence of moderate/severe calcification was independently associated with lower technical success (odds ratio, OR = 0.73, 95% CI: 0.63–0.84) and higher MACE (OR = 2.33, 95% CI: 1.66–3.27). Moderate/severe calcification was present in nearly half of CTO lesions, and was associated with higher utilization of the retrograde approach, lower technical and procedural success rates, and higher incidence of in-hospital MACE. • Moderate/severe calcification: • is present in nearly half of chronic total occlusion (CTO) lesions • requires more frequent use of the retrograde approach • requires more frequent use of intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) and advanced plaque modification techniques • is associated with lower technical and procedural success, and higher major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]