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AbstractRecoveries of populations that have suffered severe disease-induced declines are being observed across disparate taxa. Yet we lack theoretical understanding of the drivers and dynamics of recovery in host populations and communities impacted by infectious disease. Motivated by disease-induced declines and nascent recoveries in amphibians, we developed a model to ask the following question: How does the rapid evolution of different host defense strategies affect the transient recovery trajectories of hosts following pathogen invasion and disease-induced declines? We found that while host life history is predictably a major driver of variability in population recovery trajectories (including declines and recoveries), populations that use different host defense strategies (i.e., tolerance, avoidance resistance, and intensity-reduction resistance) experience notably different recoveries. In single-species host populations, populations evolving tolerance recovered on average four times slower than populations evolving resistance. Moreover, while populations using avoidance resistance strategies had the fastest potential recovery rates, these populations could get trapped in long transient states at low abundance prior to recovery. In contrast, the recovery of populations evolving intensity-reduction resistance strategies were more consistent across ecological contexts. Overall, host defense strategies strongly affect the transient dynamics of population recovery and may affect the ultimate fate of real populations recovering from disease-induced declines.

Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal) is a fungal pathogen of amphibians that is emerging in Europe and could be introduced to North America through international trade or other pathways. To evaluate the risk of Bsal invasion to amphibian biodiversity, we performed dose-response experiments on 35 North American species from 10 families, including larvae from five species. We discovered that Bsal caused infection in 74% and mortality in 35% of species tested. Both salamanders and frogs became infected and developed Bsal chytridiomycosis. Based on our host susceptibility results, environmental suitability conditions for Bsal, and geographic ranges of salamanders in the United States, predicted biodiversity loss is expected to be greatest in the Appalachian Region and along the West Coast. Indices of infection and disease susceptibility suggest that North American amphibian species span a spectrum of vulnerability to Bsal chytridiomycosis and most amphibian communities will include an assemblage of resistant, carrier, and amplification species. Predicted salamander losses could exceed 80 species in the United States and 140 species in North America., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Host species that can independently maintain a pathogen in a host community and contribute to infection in other species are important targets for disease management. However, the potential of host species to maintain a pathogen is not fixed over time, and an important challenge is understanding how within- and across-season variability in host maintenance potential affects pathogen persistence over longer time scales relevant for disease management (e.g., years). Here, we sought to understand the causes and consequences of seasonal infection dynamics in leopard frogs (Rana sphenocephala and Rana pipiens) infected with the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). We addressed three questions broadly applicable to seasonal host-parasite systems. First, to what degree are observed seasonal patterns in infection driven by temperature-dependent infection processes compared to seasonal host demographic processes? Second, how does seasonal variation in maintenance potential affect long-term pathogen persistence in multi-host communities? Third, does high deterministic maintenance potential relate to the long-term stochastic persistence of pathogens in host populations with seasonal infection dynamics? To answer these questions, we used field data collected over 3 years on >1400 amphibians across four geographic locations, laboratory and mesocosm experiments, and a novel mathematical model. We found that the mechanisms that drive seasonal prevalence were different from those driving seasonal infection intensity. Seasonal variation in Bd prevalence was driven primarily by changes in host contact rates associated with breeding migrations to and from aquatic habitat. In contrast, seasonal changes in infection intensity were driven by temperature-induced changes in Bd growth rate. Using our model, we found that the maintenance potential of leopard frogs varied significantly throughout the year and that seasonal troughs in infection prevalence made it unlikely that leopard frogs were responsible for long-term Bd persistence in these seasonal amphibian communities, highlighting the importance of alternative pathogen reservoirs for Bd persistence. Our results have broad implications for management in seasonal host-pathogen systems, showing that seasonal changes in host and pathogen vital rates, rather than the depletion of susceptible hosts, can lead to troughs in pathogen prevalence and stochastic pathogen extirpation., (© 2022 The Ecological Society of America.)

Transmission is the fundamental process whereby pathogens infect their hosts and spread through populations, and can be characterized using mathematical functions. The functional form of transmission for emerging pathogens can determine pathogen impacts on host populations and can inform the efficacy of disease management strategies. By directly measuring transmission between infected and susceptible adult eastern newts (Notophthalmus viridescens) in aquatic mesocosms, we identified the most plausible transmission function for the emerging amphibian fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal). Although we considered a range of possible transmission functions, we found that Bsal transmission was best explained by pure frequency dependence. We observed that >90% of susceptible newts became infected within 17 days post-exposure to an infected newt across a range of host densities and initial infection prevalence treatments. Under these conditions, we estimated R 0  = 4.9 for Bsal in an eastern newt population. Our results suggest that Bsal has the capability of driving eastern newt populations to extinction and that managing host density may not be an effective management strategy. Intervention strategies that prevent Bsal introduction or increase host resistance or tolerance to infection may be more effective. Our results add to the growing empirical evidence that transmission of wildlife pathogens can saturate and be functionally frequency-dependent., (© 2021 The Authors. Transboundary and Emerging Diseases published by Wiley-VCH GmbH.)

Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans is an emerging fungus that is causing salamander declines in Europe. We evaluated whether an invasive frog species (Cuban treefrog, Osteopilus septentrionalis) that is found in international trade could be an asymptomatic carrier when exposed to zoospore doses known to infect salamanders. We discovered that Cuban treefrogs could be infected with B. salamandrivorans and, surprisingly, that chytridiomycosis developed in animals at the two highest zoospore doses. To fulfill Koch's postulates, we isolated B. salamandrivorans from infected frogs, exposed eastern newts (Notophthalmus viridescens) to the isolate, and verified infection and disease by histopathology. This experiment represents the first documentation of B. salamandrivorans chytridiomycosis in a frog species and substantially expands the conservation threat and possible mobilization of this pathogen in trade., (© Wildlife Disease Association 2021.)