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1. Disaggregating the Precautionary Principle.

Author

Harris, A. W.

Subjects
*CLIMATE change, *GREENHOUSE effect, *GREENHOUSE gases, *CLIMATOLOGY
Abstract

Doubts persist about the contribution of anthropgenic activity to the enhanced greenhouse effect, despite the fact there is no know precedent to the observed change in climate over the last half of the 20th century. This paper contends that the U.S. has adopted a precautionary approach to climate change, rather than apply a robust form of the precautionary principle. The U.S. government has adopted this policy because it has dobuts about the link between human activity and climate change, because of the economic cost of adopting a strong form of the precautionary principle, and because of the unequal obligations of greenhouse gas emission reductions between developing and developed countries. The paper contends that relying on mitigation, adaption, and further researchcarries the presumption that the climate system can absorb current greenhouse gas emission levels, and is itself a risky proposition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2003
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2. Using Clustered Climate Regimes to Analyze and Compare Predictions from Fully Coupled General Circulation Models.

Author

Hoffman, Forrest M., Hargrove, William W., Erickson, David J., and Oglesby, Robert J.

Subjects
CLIMATE change, GREENHOUSE gases, HYDROLOGIC cycle, CLIMATOLOGY, MATHEMATICAL models, TIME series analysis
Abstract

Changes in Earth’s climate in response to atmospheric greenhouse gas buildup impact the health of terrestrial ecosystems and the hydrologic cycle. The environmental conditions influential to plant and animal life are often mapped as ecoregions, which are land areas having similar combinations of environmental characteristics. This idea is extended to establish regions of similarity with respect to climatic characteristics that evolve through time using a quantitative statistical clustering technique called Multivariate Spatio-Temporal Clustering (MSTC). MSTC was applied to the monthly time series output from a fully coupled general circulation model (GCM) called the Parallel Climate Model (PCM). Results from an ensemble of five 99-yr Business-As-Usual (BAU) transient simulations from 2000 to 2098 were analyzed. MSTC establishes an exhaustive set of recurring climate regimes that form a “skeleton” through the “observations” (model output) throughout the occupied portion of the climate phase space formed by the characteristics being considered. MSTC facilitates direct comparison of ensemble members and ensemble and temporal averages since the derived climate regimes provide a basis for comparison. Moreover, by mapping all land cells to discrete climate states, the dynamic behavior of any part of the system can be studied by its time-varying sequence of climate state occupancy. MSTC is a powerful tool for model developers and environmental decision makers who wish to understand long, complex time series predictions of models. Strong predicted interannual trends were revealed in this analysis, including an increase in global desertification; a decrease in the cold, dry high-latitude conditions typical of North American and Asian winters; and significant warming in Antarctica and western Greenland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2005
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3. Physical Climate Response to a Reduction of Anthropogenic Climate Forcing.

Author

Samanta, Arindam, Anderson, Bruce T., Ganguly, Sangram, Knyazikhin, Yuri, Nemani, Ramakrishna R., and Myneni, Ranga B.

Subjects
GREENHOUSE gases, EMISSIONS (Air pollution), ATMOSPHERIC carbon dioxide, CARBON dioxide, CLIMATE change, CLIMATOLOGY, SOIL moisture, MONSOONS, BIOTIC communities
Abstract

Recent research indicates that the warming of the climate system resulting from increased greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions over the next century will persist for many centuries after the cessation of these emissions, principally because of the persistence of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations and their attendant radiative forcing. However, it is unknown whether the responses of other components of the climate system—including those related to Greenland and Antarctic ice cover, the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, the West African monsoon, and ecosystem and human welfare—would be reversed even if atmospheric CO2 concentrations were to recover to 1990 levels. Here, using a simple set of experiments employing a current-generation numerical climate model, the authors examine the response of the physical climate system to decreasing CO2 concentrations following an initial increase. Results indicate that many characteristics of the climate system, including global temperatures, precipitation, soil moisture, and sea ice, recover as CO2 concentrations decrease. However, other components of the Earth system may still exhibit nonlinear hysteresis. In these experiments, for instance, increases in stratospheric water vapor, which initially result from increased CO2 concentrations, remain present even as CO2 concentrations recover. These results suggest that identification of additional threshold behaviors in response to human-induced global climate change should focus on subcomponents of the full Earth system, including cryosphere, biosphere, and chemistry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2010
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4. Modelling climate policy: Perspectives on future negotiations

Author

Buchner, Barbara and Carraro, Carlo

Subjects
*CLIMATOLOGY, *CLIMATE change, *NEGOTIATION, *GREENHOUSE gases
Abstract

Abstract: It is widely recognised that the coming into force of the Kyoto Protocol will be insufficient in achieving climate change control. Therefore, research on climate policy is focussing on the forthcoming negotiations on the policy architecture and abatement commitments that will be adopted after 2012. This paper adopts a game-theoretic approach to model climate policy and provides some results on the implications of alternative emission reduction targets beyond 2012. In particular, six scenarios are discussed and their impacts on the main economic variables are assessed. Most importantly, the paper will focus on the relationship between future emission targets and participation incentives, namely, it will examine whether there exist future emission targets that could be accepted by the US, China and other major emitters of greenhouse gases. Some suggestions for the design of future negotiation targets will also be put forward. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Published
2005
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5. The estimation of historical CO2 trajectories is indeterminate: Comment on “A new look at atmospheric carbon dioxide”

Author

Loehle, Craig

Subjects
*ATMOSPHERIC carbon dioxide & the environment, *GREENHOUSE gases, *CLIMATE change, *DATA analysis, *MATHEMATICAL models, *ESTIMATION theory, *CLIMATOLOGY
Abstract

Abstract: A paper by is critiqued. It is shown that their exponential model for characterizing CO2 trajectories for historical data is not estimated properly. An exponential model is properly estimated and is shown to fit over the entire 51 year period of available data. Further, the entire problem of estimating models for the CO2 historical data is shown to be ill-posed because alternate model forms fit the data equally well. To illustrate this point the past 51 years of CO2 data were analyzed using three different time-dependent models that capture the historical pattern of CO2 increase. All three fit with R 2 >0.98, are visually indistinguishable when overlaid, and match each other during the calibration period with R 2 >0.999. Projecting the models forward to 2100, the exponential model comes quite close to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) best estimate of 836ppmv. The other two models project values far below the IPCC low estimates. The problem of characterizing historical CO2 levels is thus indeterminate, because multiple models fit the data equally well but forecast very different future trajectories. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Published
2010
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6. Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5

Author

Ionela Musat, Marion Marchand, Slimane Bekki, Josefine Ghattas, C. Levy, Thierry Fichefet, Sophie Szopa, Hugo Bellenger, Franck Lefèvre, Yann Meurdesoif, Frédérique Cheruy, Yves Balkanski, Nicolas Viovy, Pascal Terray, Laurent Bopp, A. Lahellec, Olivier Aumont, Jan Polcher, Masa Kageyama, Jean-Louis Dufresne, Pierre Friedlingstein, Frédéric Hourdin, Patricia Cadule, Juliette Mignot, David Cugnet, François Lott, Arnaud Caubel, Gurvan Madec, Patrick Brockmann, Jean-Philippe Duvel, L. Guez, Eric Guilyardi, Sandrine Bony, Laurent Fairhead, Pascale Braconnot, Martial Mancip, Marie-Pierre Lefebvre, Olivier Marti, Rachid Benshila, N. de Noblet, Anne Cozic, Gerhard Krinner, Sonia Labetoulle, Sylvie Joussaume, Didier Swingedouw, C. Talandier, S. Parouty, Francis Codron, Michael Schulz, Abderrahmane Idelkadi, Nicolas Vuichard, James Lloyd, Sébastien Masson, S. Flavoni, Christian Ethé, Marie-Alice Foujols, Didier Hauglustaine, Jean-Yves Grandpeix, Sébastien Denvil, Z. X. Li, Catherine Rio, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École polytechnique (X), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université Paris-Saclay-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Laboratoire de physique des océans (LPO), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), STRATO - LATMOS, Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (LATMOS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN), Centre Georges Lemaître for Earth and Climate Research [Louvain] (TECLIM), Earth and Life Institute [Louvain-La-Neuve] (ELI), Université Catholique de Louvain (UCL)-Université Catholique de Louvain (UCL), College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences [Exeter] (EMPS), University of Exeter, Laboratoire de glaciologie et géophysique de l'environnement (LGGE), Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG), Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-École polytechnique (X)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École polytechnique (X), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Modelling the Earth Response to Multiple Anthropogenic Interactions and Dynamics (MERMAID), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Calcul Scientifique (CALCULS), Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR), Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain (UCL)-Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain (UCL), Modélisation du climat (CLIM), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry]), Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), and Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)

Subjects
Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Climate, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, 0207 environmental engineering, Climate commitment, Climate change, 02 engineering and technology, 01 natural sciences, Earth System Model, Climate projections, CMIP5, RCP scenarios, CMIP3, 020701 environmental engineering, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Aerosols, Coupled model intercomparison project, Global warming, Representative Concentration Pathways, Carbon cycle, Greenhouse gases, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, 13. Climate action, Land use changes, Allowable emissions, Climatology, Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project, Environmental science, Climate model, Downscaling
Abstract

International audience; We present the global general circulation model IPSL-CM5 developed to study the long-term response of the climate system to natural and anthropogenic forcings as part of the 5th Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). This model includes an interactive carbon cycle, a representation of tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry, and a comprehensive representation of aerosols. As it represents the principal dynamical, physical, and bio-geochemical processes relevant to the climate system, it may be referred to as an Earth System Model. However, the IPSL-CM5 model may be used in a multitude of configurations associated with different boundary conditions and with a range of complexities in terms of processes and interactions. This paper presents an overview of the different model components and explains how they were coupled and used to simulate historical climate changes over the past 150 years and different scenarios of future climate change. A single version of the IPSL-CM5 model (IPSL-CM5A-LR) was used to provide climate projections associated with different socio-economic scenarios, including the different Representative Concentration Pathways considered by CMIP5 and several scenarios from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios considered by CMIP3. Results suggest that the magnitude of global warming projections primarily depends on the socio-economic scenario considered, that there is potential for an aggressive mitigation policy to limit global warming to about two degrees, and that the behavior of some components of the climate system such as the Arctic sea ice and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation may change drastically by the end of the twenty-first century in the case of a no climate policy scenario. Although the magnitude of regional temperature and precipitation changes depends fairly linearly on the magnitude of the projected global warming (and thus on the scenario considered), the geographical pattern of these changes is strikingly similar for the different scenarios. The representation of atmospheric physical processes in the model is shown to strongly influence the simulated climate variability and both the magnitude and pattern of the projected climate changes.

Published
2013
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7. Implications of Climate Change for Water Resources Development in the Ganges Basin

Author

Jorge Jose Escurra, N. Harshadeep, Don Blackmore, Marc Jeuland, and Claudia Sadoff

Subjects
STREAMFLOW, GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL, RIVERS, WATER CONSUMPTION, COASTS, FLOW, CANALS, EMISSIONS TRENDS, Geography, Planning and Development, RIVER BASINS, EMISSIONS SCENARIOS, GASES, GROUNDWATER RESOURCES, WATER MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS, LARGE DAMS, CONVERGENCE, WATER, Water cycle, RAINFALL, LAND USE, MONSOONS, EMISSIONS, Water Science and Technology, MUNICIPAL WATER, EVAPOTRANSPIRATION, EMISSIONS SCENARIO, SEAWATER, ANNUAL RAINFALL, WATER AVAILABILITY, WATER RESOURCE, TEMPERATURE CHANGE, CATCHMENTS, EVAPORATION, WATER DEMAND, WATER POLICY, SURFACE RUNOFF, AVAILABLE WATER, CRU, Downscaling, FLOW AUGMENTATION, GROUNDWATER IRRIGATION, HYDROPOWER POTENTIAL, WATER USES, CRYOSPHERE, POWER PLANTS, WATER MANAGEMENT, HYDROLOGIC REGIME, AQUIFER, Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law, COVERING, IRRIGATION SYSTEMS, WATERS, HYDROPOWER PRODUCTION, Water scarcity, CAPACITY, WATER USE PATTERNS, REMOTE SENSING, LEAD, HYDROLOGY, CATCHMENT, GLACIERS, SURFACE WATER, SALINE INTRUSION, GLOBAL WARMING, WATER CYCLE, WATER SHORTAGE, METERS, WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT, RAIN, AQUIFERS, ATMOSPHERE, GCM, WATER ALLOCATION, CLIMATIC VARIABILITY, ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES, SNOW, CLIMATE DATA, Water resource management, GREENHOUSE, HYDROLOGICAL RESPONSE, HYDROLOGICAL DATA, HYDROLOGICAL MODEL, DOMESTIC WATER, GROUNDWATER, CLIMATE RESEARCH UNIT, CLIMATE CHANGE, ENERGY PRODUCTION, FLOODING, ENGINEERING, WATER STORAGE, RIVER BASIN, WATER MANAGERS, HYDRODYNAMICS, ENERGY, Water balance, WATER TOWERS, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, FORESTS, SURFACE WATER IRRIGATION, IRRIGATION, LESS, RUNOFF, INDIRECT RECHARGE, TEMPERATURE, DROUGHT, IPCC, ALTERNATIVE ENERGY, STORAGE CAPACITY, PRECIPITATION, GROUNDWATER RECHARGE, WATER SYSTEMS, IRRIGATORS, SEDIMENT LOAD, CLIMATOLOGY, GREENHOUSE GASES, CLEAN ENERGY, WATER YIELD, Climate change, WATER REQUIREMENTS, HYDROLOGIC CYCLE, FLOOD DAMAGE, BASINS, BENEFITS, RIVER DELTAS, SNOW MELT, DAMS, Hydrology, WATER ALLOCATIONS, FLOODS, Global warming, WATER SUPPLY, WATER USE, NATURAL RESOURCES, Water resources, CLIMATE, CLEAN ENERGY TECHNOLOGY, COASTAL AREAS, INTERNATIONAL WATERS, WATER RESOURCES, Environmental science, ECOSYSTEM, Climate model, RESERVOIRS, EMISSION
Abstract

This paper presents the first basin-wide assessment of the potential impact of climate change on the hydrology and production of the Ganges system, undertaken as part of the World Bank’s Ganges Strategic Basin Assessment. A series of modeling efforts, downscaling of climate projections, water balance calculations, hydrological simulation and economic optimization, inform the assessment. The authors find that projections of precipitation across the basin, obtained from 16 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-recognized General Circulation Models are highly variable, and lead to considerable differences in predictions of mean flows in the main stem of the Ganges and its tributaries. Despite uncertainties in predicted future flows, they are not, however, outside the range of natural variability in this basin, except perhaps at the tributary or sub-catchment levels. The authors also find that the hydropower potential associated with a set of 23 large dams in Nepal remains high across climate models, largely because annual flow in the tributary rivers greatly exceeds the storage capacities of these projects even in dry scenarios. The additional storage and smoothing of flows provided by these infrastructures translates into enhanced water availability in the dry season, but the relative value of this water for the purposes of irrigation in the Gangetic plain, and for low flow augmentation to Bangladesh under climate change, is unclear.

Published
2013