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3. Explaining Extreme Events of 2012 from a Climate Perspective

Author

Peterson, T. C., Alexander, L. V., Allen, M. R., Añel, Juan A., Barriopedro, David, Black, M. T., Carey-Smith, T., Castillo, R., Cattiaux, J., Chen, X. L., Chen, X. Y., Chevallier, M., Christidis, N., Ciavarella, A., Vries, H. de, Dean, S. M., Deans, K., Diffenbaugh, N. S., Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J., Donat, M. G., Dong, B., Eilerts, G., Funk, C., Galu, G., García Herrera, Ricardo, Germe, A., Gill, S., Gimeno, Luis, Guemas, V., Herring, S. C., Hoell, A., Hoerling, M. P., Huntingford, C., Husak, G., Imada, Y., Ishii, M., Karoly, D. J., Kimoto, M., King, A. D., Knutson, T. R., Lewis, S. C., Lin, R. P., Lyon, Bradfield, Massey, N., Mazza, E., Michaelsen, J., Mori, M., Mote, P. W., Nieto, Raquel, Otto, F. E. L., Park, J., Perkins, S. E., Rosier, S., Rowland, J., Rupp, D. E., Salas y Melia, D., Scherer, M., Shiogama, H., Shukla, S., Song, F. F., Sparrow, S., Stott, Peter A., Sutton, R., Sweet, W., Tett, S. F. B., Trigo, Ricardo M., Oldenborgh, G. J. van, Westrhenen, R. van, Verdin, J., Watanabe, M., Wittenberg, A. T., Woollings, Tim, Yiou, P., Zeng, F. R., Zervas, C., Zhang, R., Zhou, T. J., Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), and Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)

Subjects
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Atmospheric Science, Potential impact, geography, geography.geographical_feature_category, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Climate, 0207 environmental engineering, Física atmosférica, 02 engineering and technology, 01 natural sciences, Arctic ice pack, Sea surface temperature, Oceanography, 13. Climate action, Sea ice, Precipitation, Clima, 020701 environmental engineering, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Geology, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

Attribution of extreme events is a challenging science and one that is currently undergoing considerable evolution. In this paper are 19 analyses by 18 different research groups, often using quite different methodologies, of 12 extreme events that occurred in 2012. In addition to investigating the causes of these extreme events, the multiple analyses of four of the events, the high temperatures in the United States, the record low levels of Arctic sea ice, and the heavy rain in northern Europe and eastern Australia, provide an opportunity to compare and contrast the strengths and weaknesses of the various methodologies. The differences also provide insights into the structural uncertainty of event attribution, that is, the uncertainty that arises directly from the differences in analysis methodology. In these cases, there was considerable agreement between the different assessments of the same event. However, different events had very different causes. Approximately half the analyses found some evidence that anthropogenically caused climate change was a contributing factor to the extreme event examined, though the effects of natural fluctuations of weather and climate on the evolution of many of the extreme events played key roles as well.

Published
2013

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