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The future of dry forests around the world is uncertain given predictions that rising temperatures and enhanced aridity will increase drought‐induced tree mortality. Using forest management and ecological restoration to reduce density and competition for water offers one of the few pathways that forests managers can potentially minimize drought‐induced tree mortality. Competition for water during drought leads to elevated tree mortality in dense stands, although the influence of density on heat‐induced stress and the durations of hot or dry conditions that most impact mortality remain unclear.Understanding how competition interacts with hot‐drought stress is essential to recognize how, where and how much reducing density can help sustain dry forests in a rapidly changing world. Here, we integrated repeat measurements of 28,881 ponderosa pine trees across the western US (2000–2017) with soil moisture estimates from a water balance model to examine how annual mortality responds to competition, temperature and soil moisture conditions.Tree mortality responded most strongly to basal area, and was elevated in places with high mean temperatures, unusually hot 7‐year high temperature anomalies, and unusually dry 8‐year low soil moisture anomalies. Mortality was also lower in places that experienced unusually wet 3‐year soil moisture anomalies between measurements. Importantly, we found that basal area interacts with temperature and soil moisture, exacerbating mortality during times of stress imposed by high temperature or low moisture.Synthesis and applications. Our results imply that a 50% reduction in forest basal area could reduce drought‐driven tree mortality by 20%–80%. The largest impacts of density reduction are seen in areas with high current basal area and places that experience high temperatures and/or severe multiyear droughts. These interactions between competition and drought are critical to understand past and future patterns of tree mortality in the context of climate change, and provide information for resource managers seeking to enhance dry forest drought resistance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Inter-annual variability (IAV) of forest Net Primary Productivity (NPP) is a function of both extrinsic (e.g., climate) and intrinsic (e.g., stand dynamics) drivers. As estimates of NPP in forests are scaled from trees to stands to the landscape, an understanding of the relative effects of these factors on spatial and temporal behavior of NPP is important. Although a high degree of spatial coherence (i.e., the degree of spatial synchrony over time) is often assumed, this inherent behavior is rarely examined. Quantifying this term may improve future predictions as site-level estimates are scaled up spatially. We quantified the spatial coherence of bole biomass production (BBP) within and between trees, and bole-related NPP (NPP B ) between sites of varying age, elevation, moisture, and species composition across a forested landscape in the western Cascade Range of Oregon. Within sites, individual trees with lower than average BBP were the most coherent. IAV of BBP increased as average tree BBP increased and spatial coherence was reduced. Among sites, NPP B was the most spatially coherent ( r = 0.92) between young sites, while older sites and comparisons between age classes revealed a much larger range in spatial coherence ( r = −0.18 to 0.85). Our findings indicate climate variability may be of greater importance for spatial coherence between young sites, and that intrinsic factors could be decreasing spatial coherence between older sites or sites not in close proximity. The wide range in spatial coherence between sites found in this study, coupled with the complex land use history patterns across forested landscapes, has significant implications for modeling and scaling of NPP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]