Search

This paper provides a comprehensive overview of the modelling tools available for integrating climate change impacts into pest risk assessments (PRA), elucidating the existing methodologies and models employed to understand the potential distributions of pests based on historical data and under future climate change scenarios. We highlight the strengths and weaknesses of these models and provide commentary on their ability to identify emerging threats due to climate change accurately and adequately, considering pest establishment likelihood, host crop exposure and the distribution of impacts. The simplest methods are based on climate‐matching models, degree‐day development models and Köppen–Geiger climate classification. Correlative species distribution models derive species–environment relationships and have been applied to PRA with mixed success. When fitted models are applied to different continents they are usually challenged to extrapolate climate suitability patterns outside the climate space used to train them. Global climate change is creating novel climates, exacerbating this 'transferability' problem. Some tools have been developed to reveal when these models are extrapolating. Process‐oriented models, which focus on mechanisms and processes rather than distribution patterns, are inherently more reliable for extrapolation to novel climates such as new continents and future climate scenarios. These models, however, require more skill and generally more knowledge of the species to craft robust models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper delves into the potential impact of a changing climate on the energy performance of European buildings. Research aims to provide a comprehensive evaluation of current energy requirements focusing on the envelope, considering existing regulations in national policies. Energy simulations are conducted at 94 locations across the European Union to cover the climatic variability and Koppen climate classification. The research analyzes future climate scenarios for the years 2030, 2050, and 2070, using three different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 8.5). According to a comprehensive analysis of heating, cooling, and overall energy performance, climate plays a significant role in buildings' energy balance. In moderately cool climate countries, the demand for air conditioning is projected to decrease in the years ahead. Conversely, in countries with a warm climate, there is a projected increase in the overall energy demand. Consequently, a revision of current energy regulations should be a priority. Providing insights into the relation between building design, energy efficiency, and climate change, the research identifies policy adjustments to ensure buildings can effectively respond to changing climatic conditions. A holistic and dynamic approach can support building design accounting for long-term impacts of climate change to create resilient and energy-efficient structures. • National building energy regulations of European Member States do not tackle climate change. • Over next decades, a decrease in heating demand is forecasted across all climate zones. • There is potential for a future considerable increase of cooling demand in Europe. • A reduction in total building energy demand in colder climates and an increase in warmer climates can be expected. • Revise national energy regulations, especially in warmer zones, to curb the expected rise in Europe's total energy demand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A government-funded scheme, the UK Climate Change Communications Initiative (UKCCCI), has provided money for organisations to deliver projects that attempt to impact positively on people's attitudes towards climate change. This devolution of communications is a relatively novel approach after previous centralised campaigns. This paper considers what size of target audience is most appropriate for attitude change initiatives. It compares data from a regional UKCCCI project aimed at residents of two counties with a nationally representative dataset. Regional data are also analysed to see if there are differences in attitudes within the two-counties target audience. The study suggests that attitude change interventions must strike a balance between personalisation of information and the higher cost of targeting smaller groups with more specific material. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Paleoclimatic and paleoenvironmental changes that occurred in the Tyrrhenian Sea during the last 26kyr are investigated in this paper. Isotopic and micropaleontological studies on foraminifers, supported by radiometric and sedimentological analyses, are carried out in a high-resolution core from the upper continental Tyrrhenian slope, near the Ombrone River mouth. The location of the studied core allows us to obtain both paleoclimatic data and results concerning the transgression caused by the last deglaciation, while previous paleotemperature reconstructions are based on deep-sea, or on coastal proxies like coral reefs and spelean serpulids. Cumulative curves of cold and warm-water species presented were derived from Hierarchical Cluster Analysis (HCA). Comparing these curves with those of Globigerina bulloides δ 18O and δ 13C results on paleoclimatic events of the Late Quaternary were obtained. Faunal and isotopic proxies concur and were used to isolate seven climatic zones, corresponding to the well-known climatic episodes of the last glacial—post-glacial cycle. During the Late Glacial, three main climatic episodes were recognised: Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), centred at about 22.5kyr BP, during which our proxies indicate the lowest temperatures; Bølling-Allerød, between 15.0 and 12.5kyr BP, characterised by rapid climatic fluctuations; Younger Dryas (YD), centred at about 11.4kyr BP, with Sea Surface Temperature (SST) not dissimilar to that of LGM. A brief time span of about only 500years separates the YD climax from the first appearance of seasonality that is typical of Holocene. On the whole, the transition between glacial peak and full Holocene conditions spans about 1000 years. Foraminiferal, isotopic and sedimentological data agree in excluding important bathymetric changes during glacial times. A rapid sea-level rise is recorded at the onset of the Holocene, with a mean rate of about 23mm/yr calculated between 10.9 and 8.3kyr BP. Three distinct phases of water circulation regimes were evidenced in the course of Holocene. During Pre-boreal and Boreal chronozones (10.9–8.3kyr BP) a marked seasonality has been recognised. It corresponded to a homogeneous water column, favoured by efficient vertical mixing during the winter and by warm stratified water column and oligotrophic surface waters during the summer. Both faunal and isotopic record indicate, from 8.3 to 5.2kyr BP, well-stratified water column with a low-salinity layer in surface waters, probably marking its climax at 6.2kyr BP. Such conditions correspond to the deposition of sapropel S1 in the eastern Mediterranean Sea. The subsequent paleoceanography is characterised by the establishment of the winter convection and vertical mixing typical of the Modern Tyrrhenian Sea. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]