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Instrumental data from the pre–Industrial Revolution period are important to -understand climate change. In this paper, the observations made by the French missionary J. Amiot in present-day central Beijing during 1757–62 were processed and analyzed. The observations represent the earliest continuous dataset of meteorological records found in China that have been digitized recently. Comparisons between the Amiot annual temperature range and extreme values with modern observations showed that the observations were read at approximately 0800 and 1500 local solar time (LST) in a well-ventilated outdoor site. The daily maximum, minimum, and mean temperatures (T-max, T-min, and T-mean, respectively) during 1757–62 were determined by examining the relationship between temperature at 0800 and 1500 LST and T-max, T-min, and T-mean in modern reference series. Nearly 260 years ago, Beijing's climate was typical of an inland temperate monsoon zone with annual T-mean, annual mean T-max, and annual mean T-min being 11.5°, 17.8°, and 6.1°C, respectively; further, the temperatures did not vary considerably from the 1951–1980 temperatures, but differed evidently compared to relatively recent decades (1981–2020). The difference was larger than the magnitudes of global and regional temperature changes. Thus, climate warming since the pre–Industrial Revolution period in the urban areas of Beijing has dominantly occurred over the last four decades. Uncertainties related to the thermometer and observational conditions 260 years ago and the interpolation method used have also been discussed in this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduces a special issue ofLocal Environmentthat has arisen through collaboration between academic researchers and the Urban Planning and Design Branch of UN-Habitat, focused on how we can understand and respond to the challenges of urban vulnerability, adaptation and resilience in the context of climate change. The paper establishes the existing state of the art in the field, and considers critical challenges that are emerging in the research-based literature. In this context, it introduces UN-Habitat's Cities and Climate Change Initiative and reflects on the lessons learnt and challenges ahead, drawing on insights from across the papers in the special issue. In conclusion, it identifies the role of international/transnational co-operation, the relation between adaptation and mitigation, issues of multi-level governance and the ways in which change in urban socio-technical systems might be achieved as critical issues across the science/policy interface where increased dialogue and the co-production of knowledge needs to focus in order to advance this agenda. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The article presents an analysis on the focal Concepts and Synthesis paper of Kevin D. Lafferty on climate change impacts on infectious diseases. Lafferty's paper strongly summarizes the impact of climate change on mosquito--transmitted human infectious disease, as well as the inability of the people to detect climate drivers. The paper also failed to discuss the importance of climate warming and changes in host migratory in the spread of infectious diseases, the impact of climate change on disease dynamics, and the interaction between wildlife hosts and their communities of parasites.

Energy production has come under increasing scrutiny as concerns about energy security and climate change have risen. In the UK changes in government structure and privatisation of the electricity industry have led to the emergence of multi-level governance. This means that decisions on how to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from the electricity-generating sector should no longer be solely a national policy decision. Previous studies have sought to explore how renewable energy may develop under multi-level governance, but this paper pays attention to a traditional fossil fuel source, coal, which is still an important means of electricity generation. Coal is the most abundant fossil fuel and advocates argue that carbon capture and storage techniques could make coal ‘clean’, paving the way for a long-term, secure and low emission way to produce energy. This study focuses on the Yorkshire and Humber Region, which has had a long association with coal mining and looks at the implications of this as the region seeks to develop a climate change action plan and an energy strategy within the new regional governance structures. The paper argues that the regional networks developed to address climate change are influenced by existing social power structures and alliances. The region as a territorial structure becomes a useful device in promoting national priorities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is about the identification of the changing world climate drivers and speculation concerning the future impact such drivers will have on countries in the southern hemisphere, especially Australia and New Zealand. A focus for the above is a case study of climate change which has induced severe hardships in the Bendigo region of Victoria, Australia. The authors are of the opinion this experience, in this extremely climate sensitive agricultural area, is a forerunner to what could occur to many regions in the southern hemisphere. The case study shows the vulnerability of communities to instruments of governance established during periods of stability and urges the urgent need for modified governance instruments during periods of rapid climatic change. The paper commences the discussion about the meaning, relevance and reality of sustainability for communities during times of climatic uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dominant interannual El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and the short length of climate observation records make it difficult to study long-term climate variations in the spatiotemporal domain. Based on the fact that the ENSO signal spreads to remote regions and induces delayed climate variation through atmospheric teleconnections, an ENSO-removal method is developed through which the ENSO signal can be approximately removed at the grid box level from the spatiotemporal field of a climate parameter. After this signal is removed, long-term climate variations are isolated at mid- and low latitudes in the climate parameter fields from observed and reanalysis datasets. This paper addresses the long-term global warming trend (GW); a companion paper concentrates on Pacific pan-decadal variability (PDV). The warming that occurs in the Pacific basin (approximately 0.4 K in the twentieth century) is much weaker than in surrounding regions and the other two ocean basins (approximately 0.8 K). The modest warming in the Pacific basin is likely due to its dynamic nature on the interannual and decadal time scales and/or the leakage of upper ocean water through the Indonesian Throughflow. Based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP–NCAR) and the 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40), a comprehensive atmospheric structure associated with the GW trend is given. Significant discrepancies exist between the two datasets, especially in the tightly coupled dynamics and water vapor fields. The dynamics fields based on NCEP–NCAR, which show a change in the Walker Circulation, are consistent with the GW change in the surface temperature field. However, intensification in the Hadley Circulation is associated with GW trend in ERA-40 instead. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

India has good reasons to be concerned about climate change as it could adversely affect the achievement of vital national development goals related to socio-economic development, human welfare, health, energy availability and use, and infrastructure. The paper attempts to develop a framework for integrated impact assessment and adaptation responses, using a recently built railroad coastal infrastructure asset in India as an example. The framework links climate change variables — temperature, rainfall, sea level rise, extreme events, and other secondary variables — and sustainable development variables — technology, institutions, economic, and other policies. The study indicates that sustainable development variables generally reduce the adverse impacts on the system due to climate change alone, except when they are inadequately applied. The paper concludes that development is a vital variable for integrated impact assessment. Well crafted developmental policies could result in a less-GHG intensive future, enhanced adaptive capacities of communities and systems, and lower impacts due to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes an assessment of the ways in which water supply companies in England and Wales are adapting to climate change, evaluated in the context of a model of the adaptation process. The four components of the model are (i) awareness of and concern about the potential impacts of climate change, (ii) adaptation strategy, (iii) the concept of an adaptation space from which options are selected, and (iv) the notion that three groups of factors influence awareness, strategy and option selection: susceptibility to change, internal characteristics of the organisation, and regulatory and market context. Public water supply in England and Wales is provided by private sector companies, subject to environmental and economic regulation. Hydrological simulations suggest that climate change has the potential to reduce the reliability of supply sources over the next few decades. The industry in December 2004 completed a review of investment requirements over the next five years. Awareness of climate change is high in the water industry, but by developing assessment procedures and incorporating them into the investment review the regulators forced companies to consider explicitly the potential impacts of climate change in a consistent and rigorous manner. These analyses combined climate change with other pressures on water resources, and in practice companies did not attribute specific investment decisions or proposals to climate change or indeed any other individual drivers. The broad strategy adopted by all water supply companies - to maintain standards of service - is determined by regulatory controls and market considerations, but the degree of concern about the impacts of climate change and precise adaptation options necessary to address supply-demand imbalances varied between water supply companies, reflecting local geographic conditions. The water supply companies and regulators have different perspectives on the relative merits of supply-side and demand-side measures, reflecting different organisational priorities. The 2004 investment review determined that no specific actions were necessary to deal with future climate change, but that measures set in place - in terms of methodologies and investment in investigations into specific resource developments - provided a sound foundation for more specific actions in the next investment review in five years time. The paper concludes by summarising the factors assisting and constraining adaptation over the next few decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vulnerability is an emerging concept for climate science and policy. Over the past decade, efforts to assess vulnerability to climate change triggered a process of theory development and assessment practice, which is reflected in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This paper reviews the historical development of the conceptual ideas underpinning assessments of vulnerability to climate change. We distinguish climate impact assessment, first- and second-generation vulnerability assessment, and adaptation policy assessment. The different generations of assessments are described by means of a conceptual framework that defines key concepts of the assessment and their analytical relationships. The purpose of this conceptual framework is two-fold: first, to present a consistent visual glossary of the main concepts underlying the IPCC approach to vulnerability and its assessment; second, to show the evolution of vulnerability assessments. This evolution is characterized by the progressive inclusion of non-climatic determinants of vulnerability to climate change, including adaptive capacity, and the shift from estimating expected damages to attempting to reduce them. We hope that this paper improves the understanding of the main approaches to climate change vulnerability assessment and their evolution, not only within the climate change community but also among researchers from other scientific communities, who are sometimes puzzled by the unfamiliar use of technical terms in the context of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Manifold linkages exist between climate change and sustainable development. Although these are starting to receive attention in the climate exchange literature, the focus has typically been on examining sustainable development through a climate change lens, rather than vice versa. And there has been little systematic examination of how these linkages may be fostered in practice. This paper examines climate change through a sustainable development lens. To illustrate how this might change the approach to climate change issues, it reports on the findings of a panel of business, local government, and academic representatives in British Columbia, Canada, who were appointed to advise the provincial government on climate change policy. The panel found that sustainable development may offer a significantly more fruitful way to pursue climate policy goals than climate policy itself. The paper discusses subsequent climate change developments in the province and makes suggestions as how best to pursue such a sustainability approach in British Columbia and other jurisdictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Climate is an important input to many human activities. Climate affects heating and cooling requirements, health, clothing and nutritional needs as well as recreational activities. As such, it is to be expected that individuals will have a preference for particular types of climate. This paper analyses a panel of 67 countries attempting to explain differences in self-reported levels of happiness by reference to, amongst other things, temperature and precipitation. Various indices are used for each of these variables, including means, extremes and the number of hot, cold, wet and dry months. Using a panel-corrected least squares approach, the paper demonstrates that, even when controlling for a range of other factors, climate variables have a highly significant effect on country-wide self-reported levels of happiness. On the basis of these results, it is determined that differential patterns of anthropogenically induced climate change might alter dramatically the distribution of happiness between nations, with some countries moving towards a preferred climate and others moving further away. We find that high-latitude countries included in our dataset might benefit from temperature changes. Countries already characterized by very high summer temperatures would most likely suffer losses from climate change. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Since 1987, this paper has presented the yearly report of the meteorological observations at the Geophysical Observatory of Modena and Reggio Emilia University, which is located inside the eastern tower of the Dukes' Palace of Modena. The Observatory was founded the 26th January 1826 and ever since its instruments have regularly recorded data. For the year 2015, we present a summary of the annual average values, total and extreme weather of the main parameters, plots with annual and monthly trends of several parameters compared with average climatological values. In addition, "the extremes of 2015", i.e. the average and extreme values of all data collected by the Observatory and at the meteorological stations "Campus DIEF", located in the Department of Engineering in Modena, and at the Campus San Lazzaro in Reggio Emilia are presented. In 2015, there were also anomalies, in line with climate change taking place at a global scale. In particular, July 2015 with an average temperature of 29.4 °C, equals the hottest temperature record of August 2003 and was the hottest July ever recorded. The year 2015, with an average temperature of 16.1 °C, is the second warmest year on record. The amount of precipitation is close to climatic mean, but with some anomalies in monthly distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The hydrology of scarce-data areas, such as the mountainous area of the Andes, is poorly known mainly owing to the lack of data. Global gridded climatological datasets (GGCDs) are becoming more precise and common, but the utility of these datasets and their applicability to complex hydrological systems are still not yet well determined. In this paper the reliability of a GGCD is evaluated as an alternative source to supply the lacking in situ observations, with the aim of studying the hydrology of a mountainous area in south-central Chile. The GGCDs are found to recover the climate variability in Andean areas, and partially recover the orographic effect caused by the mountains. A finding of practical relevance is that GGCDs could be considered as an adequate source for performing hydrological models and studies under high spatial variability and scarce-data environments such as the Andes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Use of multi-model ensembles from global climate models to simulate the current and future climate change has flourished as a research topic during recent decades. This paper assesses the performance of multi-model ensembles in simulating global land temperature from 1960 to 1999, using Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency and Taylor diagrams. The future trends of temperature for different scales and emission scenarios are projected based on the posterior model probabilities estimated by Bayesian methods. The results show that ensemble prediction can improve the accuracy of simulations of the spatiotemporal distribution of global temperature. The performance of Bayesian model averaging (BMA) at simulating the annual temperature dynamic is significantly better than single climate models and their simple model averaging (SMA). However, BMA simulation can demonstrate the temperature trend on the decadal scale, but its annual assessment of accuracy is relatively weak. The ensemble prediction presents dissimilarly accurate descriptions in different regions, and the best performance appears in Australia. The results also indicate that future temperatures in northern Asia rise with the greatest speed in some scenarios, and Australia is the most sensitive region for the effects of greenhouse gas emissions. In addition to the uncertainty of ensemble prediction, the impacts of climate change on agriculture production and water resources are discussed as an extension of this research. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Ongoing global warming not only involves changes in temperature and the global mean; it affects more or less every part of the climate. Regional temperature changes are often greater or smaller than corresponding changes in the global mean. In some cases the direction of change may also be different. For example, temperature changes are higher over land than over the ocean. Precipitation increases in some regions but decreases in others. Changes in extreme events may differ from changes in the corresponding mean. Present scientific knowledge clearly indicates that the already observed global trend towards warmer conditions will continue and that it will be accompanied by changes in yet other aspects of climate. This paper highlights, as a brief review, aspects of our changing climate from the available scientific knowledge with a bearing on the energy sector. Its focus is on temperature and precipitation, with some consideration of wind and sea level, among others. While uncertainties remain as far as the magnitude of future global-scale changes is concerned, and even more so their many regional patterns, significant changes are foreseen in, for example, global and regional temperature and precipitation, sea level rise, and in the characteristics of various extreme events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The feedback based integrated assessment model ANEMI_2 represents the society-biosphere-climate-economy-energy system of the earth and biosphere. The ANEMI_2 model is based on the system dynamics simulation approach that (a) allows for the understanding and modeling of complex global change and (b) assists in the investigation of possible policy options for mitigating, and/or adapting to changing global conditions within an integrated assessment modeling framework. This paper outlines the ANEMI_2 model and its nine system components: climate, carbon cycle, land-use, population, food production, hydrologic cycle, water demand, water quality, and energy-economy. To evaluate market and nonmarket costs and benefits of climate change, the ANEMI_2 model integrates an economic optimization approach, with a focus on the international energy stock and fuel price, climate interrelations and temperature change. The model takes into account all major greenhouse gases (GHG) influencing global temperature and sea-level variation. Results from several scenarios (a) compare well with other information available in the scientific literature, (b) present comprehensive response of the society-biosphere-climate-economy-energy system to the selected scenarios, and (c) confirm the support role of the ANEMI_2 model in the policy development and analyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper assessed the influence of Nigerian media on public knowledge of climate change. This work acknowledges that public understanding of climate change is a prerequisite to taking voluntary action to mitigate its effects. The work therefore sought to ascertain the specific ways in which Nigerian media reportage of climate change had influenced public knowledge of the subject matter. A survey was conducted in Abuja, Enugu, Ikeja and Port Harcourt. Editors of four newspapers in Nigeria were interviewed. Results indicated that the mass media did not rank the highest as sources of information for the audience on climate change, and they (media) did not significantly influence public knowledge of climate change. This finding differed from results of studies in the US. Respondents linked climate change to changes in weather patterns. This study recommended that opinion polls are necessary to see where audience interests lies as well as how much media views influence public understanding in terms of communication effectiveness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses the effects of vegetation cover and soil parameters on the climate change projections of a regional climate model over the Arctic domain. Different setups of the land surface model of the regional climate model HIRHAM were realized to analyze differences in the atmospheric circulation caused by (1) the incorporation of freezing/thawing of soil moisture, (2) the consideration of top organic soil horizons typical for the Arctic and (3) a vegetation shift due to a changing climate. The largest direct thermal effect in 2 m air temperature was found for the vegetation shift, which ranged between −1.5 K and 3 K. The inclusion of a freeze/thaw scheme for soil moisture shows equally large sensitivities in spring over cool areas with high soil moisture content. Although the sensitivity signal in 2 m air temperature for the experiments differs in amplitude, all experiments show changes in mean sea level pressure (mslp) and geopotential height (z) throughout the troposphere of similar magnitude (mslp: −2 hPa to 1.5 hPa, z: −15 gpm to 5 gpm). This points to the importance of dynamical feedbacks within the atmosphere-land system. Land and soil processes have a distinct remote influence on large scale atmospheric circulation patterns in addition to their direct, regional effects. The assessment of induced uncertainties due to the changed implementations of land surface processes discussed in this study demonstrates the need to take all those processes for future Arctic climate projections into account, and demonstrates a clear need to include similar implementations in regional and global climate models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The frequently heard call to harmonize adaptation and mitigation policies is well intended and many opportunities exist to realize co-benefits by designing and implementing both in mutually supportive ways. But critical tradeoffs (inadequate conditions, competition among means for implementation, and negative consequences of pursuing both simultaneously) also exist, along with policy disconnects that are shaped by history, sequencing, scale, contextual variables, and controversial climate discourses in the public. To ignore these issues can be expected to undermine a more comprehensive, better integrated climate risk management portfolio. The paper discusses various implications of these tradeoffs between adaptation and mitigation for science and policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Models of the global warming process are obliged to include many important small-scale processes that cannot be explicitly represented, given the low spatial and temporal resolution at which the models can be integrated. As the parameterizations of these processes, in terms of the resolved scale fields, must be tuned to permit them to enable the models to fit climate observations from the instrumental era, it is an issue as to whether such models remain robust when they are applied to the prediction of future warming trends. Geological inferences of past climate conditions provide a means by which the robustness of the models may be assessed. In this paper, two examples of such tests are described, both of which demonstrate that a state-of-the-art model is able to accurately simulate past conditions that differ radically from modern. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 'Copenhagen Accord' fails to deliver the political framework for a fair, ambitious and legally-binding international climate agreement beyond 2012. The current climate policy regime dynamics are insufficient to reflect the realities of topical complexity, actor coalitions, as well as financial, legal and institutional challenges in the light of extreme time constraints to avoid 'dangerous' climate change of more than 2°C. In this paper we analyze these stumbling blocks for international climate policy and discuss alternatives in order to regain momentum for future negotiations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we investigate the impacts of future climatic change on the occurrence of debris flows in the Massif des Ecrins (French Alps). Two distinct aspects are discussed: the impact of future climatic change on the evolution of the process, and changes in the spatial distribution. Three climate simulations are presented for the current period (1970–1999) and for future periods (2070–2099) using GCM ARPEGE CLIMAT model developed by Météo-France. Simulated data are then statistically downscaled to obtain a higher spatial resolution. In the first step, we compare occurrence probabilities in the current period and in the next century. In the second step, we estimate which zones would be affected by the process in the future at the scale of the Massif des Ecrins. For the current period, the best model was obtained between debris flows and the number of days between June 15th and October 15th with more than 20 mm calculated either from observed meteorological or simulated data. Results of the ARPEGE model considering the A2 hypothesis (IPCC ) showed that the most significant climatic trends for the end of the century will be a decrease in intense rainy events and an increase in temperature. These trends are expected to reduce the occurrence of hill slope debris flows in the Massif des Ecrins. From a spatial point of view, the increase in temperature should result in a shift of the 0°C isotherm to a higher elevation which, in turn, should result in a 20% reduction of the number of slopes affected by the process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the robustness of the long-run, cointegrating, relationship between global temperatures and radiative forcing. It is found that the temperature sensitivity to a doubling of radiative forcing is of the order of 2 ± 1°C. This result is robust across the sample period of 1850 to 2000, thus providing further confirmation of the quantitative impact of radiative forcing and, in particular, CO2 forcing, on temperatures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Meteorological and oceanographic data from ships of opportunity are the largest contributor to the world’s ocean surface database and thus are extensively used to estimate the change in climatic properties over the world’s oceans during the previous 150 years. The importance of these data for climate change studies underscores the need to fully understand the error associated with averages of these data. The sampling error problem is especially acute for ship data due to the fact that ships are moving platforms and, thus, report observations from constantly varying locations with time. This paper develops a theoretical framework for assessing the averaged sampling error associated with monthly, 1°×1° latitude-longitude box averaged ship data. It should be noted that the time-space distribution of ships within the averaging domain strongly affects the sampling error. This is shown in our derivation. The framework developed here can be used to improve upon existing methods for estimating the sampling error associated with three-dimensional box averages of meteorological and oceanographic data obtained from ship records. The framework is complimentary to existing methods of assessing biases and random error due to instrumentation, recording, etc. It is demonstrated mathematically that the uncertainty due to incomplete sampling is primarily a trade off between of the number of observations and their relative locations within the box as well as the inherent time-space correlation structure of the variable of interest. This work differs from other studies in that the three-dimensional interdependence of data is taken into account in deriving an expression for the sampling error. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Owing to less natural snow reliability as a result of climate change on the one hand, and the demand of higher standards by winter tourists on the other hand, the production of artificial snow in ski resorts has increased substantially during the last 20 years and is likely to increase further in future. Little research has been conducted on the impact of snowmaking as a water demand stakeholder on a regional water balance. In this paper, a regional water balance (water demand-water resources) is analysed for the greater Kitzbueheler Region in the Austrian Alps, for the current situation and a future climate change scenario (28C warming). For this temperature rise a significant reduction in natural snow cover duration and snow accumulation is predicted, an effect that increases with lower altitudes and differs between the winter months. Due to the shortening of the winter season, a change in seasonality of river flows and available water resources (ground and surface water) occurs. Both increase in winter, and decrease in spring. The water demand for improvement snowmaking increases, especially in the month of March. However, December proved to be the critical month due to the large amounts of water required for base snowmaking both now and in future. These results stress the necessity of reservoir storage for base snowmaking on a regional level. Water availability during other months but winter is sufficient to fill these reservoirs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the spatial dependence of annual diurnal temperature range (DTR) trends from 1950–2004 on the annual climatology of three variables: precipitation, cloud cover, and leaf area index (LAI), by classifying the global land into various climatic regions based on the climatological annual precipitation. The regional average trends for annual minimum temperature ( T min) and DTR exhibit significant spatial correlations with the climatological values of these three variables, while such correlation for annual maximum temperature ( T max) is very weak. In general, the magnitude of the downward trend of DTR and the warming trend of T min decreases with increasing precipitation amount, cloud cover, and LAI, i.e., with stronger DTR decreasing trends over drier regions. Such spatial dependence of T min and DTR trends on the climatological precipitation possibly reflects large-scale effects of increased global greenhouse gases and aerosols (and associated changes in cloudiness, soil moisture, and water vapor) during the later half of the twentieth century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regional climate models (RCMs) are dynamical downscaling tools aimed to improve the modelling of local physical processes. Ensembles of RCMs are widely used to improve the coarse-grain estimates of global climate models (GCMs) since the use of several RCMs helps to palliate uncertainties arising from different dynamical cores and numerical schemes methods. In this paper, we analyse the differences and similarities in the climate change response for an ensemble of heterogeneous RCMs forced by one GCM (HadAM3H), and one emissions scenario (IPCC's SRES-A2 scenario). As a difference with previous approaches using PRUDENCE database, the statistical description of climate characteristics is made through the spatial and temporal aggregation of the RCMs outputs into probability distribution functions (PDF) of monthly values. This procedure is a complementary approach to conventional seasonal analyses. Our results provide new, stronger evidence on expected marked regional differences in Europe in the A2 scenario in terms of precipitation and temperature changes. While we found an overall increase in the mean temperature and extreme values, we also found mixed regional differences for precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The natural resources of the Okavango Delta, a large wetland in semi-arid Botswana, form the basis of livelihoods of the local population and support economically important high-end tourism. The hydro-ecological system is dynamic at various time scales, responding to climate variability, and both flood and drought conditions have in the past put pressure on the system's users. Human-induced climate change can potentially exacerbate the effects of existing climate variability. In this paper, we present simulated future hydro-ecological conditions in the Okavango Delta generated by a step-wise modelling procedure. The outputs of three different global climate models are used to drive a suite of hydrological models. Lastly, a rule-based dynamic model relates hydroperiod conditions to vegetation assemblages. The simulated future conditions vary from much drier to much wetter than those recorded in the past. Models indicate that climatic change would result in change in both extent and distribution of the major ecotopes of the Okavango Delta. Importantly, the different ecotopes will be affected to varying degrees. The projected changes will have consequences for the wildlife-based management of the system. They will affect, for example, available grazing and migration/movement patterns of large herbivores, as well as fish. Such consequences can have rapid up-trophic level effects, ultimately leading to potentially substantial impacts on the economy. The main conclusion to be drawn is that management planning and land-use systems should be as flexible as possible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper surveys the energy problem in relation to global warming and the social criteria of India. India's failure to develop a policy on global warming is highlighted and her economic policy judged in relation to her energy options, including such notable work as jatropha development and nuclear energy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The transportation sector, led by the automobile, has been cited constantly as a major contributor through human intervention to climate change. Short of banning car use, the challenge remains one of understanding better what mix of actions might contribute in non-marginal ways to reducing the growth of greenhouse gas emissions and the absolute amount of CO2 produced by automobiles. This paper evaluates instruments aimed at a number of policy objectives linked to efficiency, sustainability and equity, focusing on social surplus gains in addition to cost effectiveness; but in particular the ability to reduce CO2. TRESIS, an integrated transport, land use and environmental strategy impact simulation program, is used to assess the influence on CO2 of a number of ‘at source’ and ‘mitigation’ instruments such as improvements in fuel efficiency, a carbon tax, variable user charges, and improvements in public transit. TRESIS is applied to the Sydney metropolitan area with instruments enacted in 2010 up to 2015. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Climate change is already occurring in the Arctic and the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment recently concluded that future climate change could be devastating for Inuit. This paper characterises vulnerability to climate change in two Inuit communities in the Canadian territory of Nunavut, focusing on the resource harvesting sector. In both communities, Inuit have demonstrated significant adaptability in the face of current changes in climatic conditions. This adaptability is facilitated by traditional Inuit knowledge, strong social networks, flexibility in resource use, and institutional support. Changing Inuit livelihoods, however, have undermined certain aspects of adaptive capacity and have resulted in emerging vulnerabilities. Global and regional climate projections indicate that climatic conditions which currently pose risks are expected to be negatively affected by future climate change. These projections are not without precedent and analysis of current vulnerability and identification of adaptation constraints by Inuit in the two communities indicate the continued importance of traditional coping mechanisms. The ability to draw on these coping mechanisms in light of future climate change, however, will be unequal and the research indicates that young Inuit and those without access to economic resources, in particular, are vulnerable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Uncertainties in observed records of atmospheric temperature aloft remain poorly quantified. This has resulted in considerable controversy regarding signals of climate change over recent decades from temperature records of radiosondes and satellites. This work revisits the problems associated with the removal of inhomogeneities from the historical radiosonde temperature records, and provides a method for quantifying uncertainty in an adjusted radiosonde climate record due to the subjective choices made during the data homogenization. This paper presents an automated homogenization method designed to replicate the decisions made by manual judgment in the generation of an earlier radiosonde dataset [i.e., the Hadley Centre radiosonde temperature dataset (HadAT)]. A number of validation experiments have been conducted to test the system performance and impact on linear trends. Using climate model data to simulate biased radiosonde data, the authors show that limitations in the homogenization method are sufficiently large to explain much of the tropical trend discrepancy between HadAT and estimates from satellite platforms and climate models. This situation arises from the combination of systematic (unknown magnitude) and random uncertainties (of order 0.05 K decade-1) in the radiosonde data. Previous assessment of trends and uncertainty in HadAT is likely to have underestimated the systematic bias in tropical mean temperature trends. This objective assessment of radiosonde homogenization supports the conclusions of the synthesis report of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP), and associated research, regarding potential bias in tropospheric temperature records from radiosondes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On the basis of sediment and pollen analyses of a radiocarbon-dated sediment sequence from Lake Joux in the Swiss Jura Mountains (west-central Europe), this paper presents a high-resolution record of lake-level and vegetation changes for the last millennium. The lake-level record makes it possible to determine that lowstands of the water-table dominated at c. AD 1200-1400, and from 1720 onward, with interruptions by short-lived rise events at c. AD 1340 and 1840. Highstands prevailed at c. AD 1100, and around AD 1450, 1550 and 1700. The comparison of the Joux lake-level record with a solar irradiance record based on cosmogenic nucleides supports the hypothesis of a major solar forcing of climate variations in west-central Europe over the last millennium. In agreement with other palaeohydrological records established in Western Europe and in the central North Atlantic Ocean, the Joux lake-level record suggests that, on a multicentennial scale, the period of the 'Little Ice Age' coincided in the European mid-latitudes with wetter climatic conditions, and probably with an increase in summer precipitation. Variations in the hydrological cycle appear to have been associated with changes in the general atmospheric circulation pattern, probably coupled with variations in oceanic circulation and solar activity. The Joux record also points to changes in water resources expected to result from ongoing global warming. Finally, despite the severe climatic conditions which prevail in the Joux Valley, the human impact history at Lake Joux over the last millennium seems to reflect political choices and economic context more than climatic changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: INTegration of Ice-core, MArine and TErrestrial records (INTIMATE) is a core project of the INQUA Palaeoclimate Commission, the primary goal of which is to synchronise records of the Last Glacial–Interglacial Transition (LGIT). Through a series of international workshops, INTIMATE has encouraged direct collaboration between scientists with interests and expertise in a wide range of palaeoenvironmental approaches. The workshops have focused on the dissemination of good practice in the dating, correlation and synthesis of diverse palaeoenvironmental records that span the LGIT. This special issue of Quaternary Science Reviews presents some of the outcomes of the 8th INTIMATE International Workshop held in Iceland in September 2005, and focuses on four themes considered vital to INTIMATE''s long-term strategy. (1) An event stratigraphy approach, which uses the Greenland oxygen isotope record as a stratotype sequence, lies at the core of INTIMATE''s operations. A revised event stratigraphy scheme for application to North Atlantic LGIT records is presented, which is based on the new GICC05 Greenland ice-core chronology. (2) New tree-ring data from Switzerland and the application of Bayesian-based procedures in the analysis of comprehensive radiocarbon data sets provide much potential for reducing the uncertainties in radiocarbon-based age models. (3) Three of the contributions present new evidence that helps to refine the tephrostratigraphy of the LGIT in the NE Atlantic and New Zealand regions. (4) Establishing the precise order and synchroneity of events during the LGIT is vital to understand the causes and effects of abrupt climate change. Data are presented from the Baltic region and Alaska, which vary in degree of compatibility with North Atlantic records. Two final papers consider the roles of Dansgaard–Oeschger events on thermokarst during the Middle Weichselian and of solar activity variations during the mid-Holocene; both illustrate how the INTIMATE event stratigraphy approach can apply to the study of other time intervals. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The transport sector is consistently responsible for around 30 per cent of carbon dioxide emissions in developed countries and is one of few sectors where emissions continue to increase as a result of apparently insatiable demand for road and air travel. This paper examines how the formulation of transport policy fits into the exposition of UK climate policy, focusing on three principal areas of tension: policy priority (congestion and carbon reduction); strategies to reduce emissions (technological and behavioural solutions) and timescale (short- and long-term vision). We suggest that in overcoming such tensions government ministers will need to devolve significant policy formulation and implementation powers to an appropriate scale of governance – in this case the city-region – to fashion a ‘convergence space’ capable of promoting meaningful action with regard to transport's climate impact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The expectation that atmospheric warming will be most pronounced at higher latitudes means that Arctic and montane systems, with predominantly organic soils, will be particularly influenced by climate change. One group of soil fauna, the enchytraeids, is commonly the major soil faunal component in specific biomes, frequently exceeding above-ground fauna in biomass terms. These organisms have a crucial role in carbon turnover in organic rich soils and seem particularly sensitive to temperature changes. In order to predict the impacts of climate change on this important group of soil organisms we reviewed data from 44 published papers using a combination of conventional statistical techniques and meta-analysis. We focused on the effects of abiotic factors on total numbers of enchytraeids (a total of 611 observations) and, more specifically, concentrated on total numbers, vertical distribution and age groupings of the well-studied species Cognettia sphagnetorum (228 observations). The results highlight the importance of climatic factors, together with vegetation and soil type in determining global enchytraeid distribution; in particular, cold and wet environments with mild summers are consistently linked to greater densities of enchytraeids. Based on the upper temperature distribution limits reported in the literature, and identified from our meta-analyses, we also examined the probable future geographical limits of enchytraeid distribution in response to predicted global temperature changes using the HadCM3 model climate output for the period between 2010 and 2100. Based on the existing data we identify that a maximum mean annual temperature threshold of 16 °C could be a critical limit for present distribution of field populations, above which their presence would decline markedly, with certain key species, such as C. sphagnetorum, being totally lost from specific regions. We discuss the potential implications for carbon turnover in these organic soils where these organisms currently dominate and, consequently, their future role as C sink/source in response to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

If the objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is to be achieved, Parties must commit themselves to meeting meaningful long-term targets that, based on current knowledge, would minimize the possibility of irreversible climate change. Current indications are that a global mean temperature rise in excess of 2–3 °C would enhance the risk of destabilizing the climate system as we know it, and possibly lead to catastrophic change such as a shutdown of the deep ocean circulation, and the disintegration of the West Arctic Ice Sheet. Observations have shown that for many small island developing States (SIDS), life-sustaining ecosystems such as coral reefs, already living near the limit of thermal tolerance, are highly climate-sensitive, and can suffer severe damage from exposure to sea temperatures as low as 1 °C above the seasonal maximum. Other natural systems (e.g., mangroves) are similarly susceptible to relatively low temperature increases, coupled with small increments of sea level rise. Economic and social sectors, including agriculture and human health, face similar challenges from the likely impacts of projected climate change. In light of known thresholds, this paper presents the view that SIDS should seek support for a temperature cap not exceeding 1.5–2.0 °C above the pre-industrial mean. It is argued that a less stringent post-Kyoto target would frustrate achievement of the UNFCCC objective. The view is expressed that all countries which emit significant amounts of greenhouse gases should commit to binding reduction targets in the second commitment period, but that targets for developing countries should be less stringent than those agreed for developed countries. Such an arrangement would be faithful to the principles of equity and would ensure that the right of Parties to attain developed country status would not be abrogated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change is an important cause of biodiversity loss. The conservation, sustainable management and use of biodiversity resources are key factors that can be effectively used to minimize the adverse impacts of global climate change. Efforts to understand and address the linkages between global climate change and biodiversity loss are both urgent and timely. Integrating responses related to these two global environmental challenges is especially relevant for small island developing States (SIDS) because the adverse impacts of climate change can impose severe stresses on biodiversity resources that are fragile, vulnerable and already under stress and the people who depend upon them. This paper argues that comprehensive assessments of adverse impacts of global climate change on the biodiversity resources of SIDS, and an improved understanding of relevant climate change related adaptation measures and sustainable energy policies (that are based on the principles of conservation, sustainable management and use of biodiversity resources) will enable SIDS to become more resilient and to develop better response capacities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper the extensive integrations produced for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) are used to examine the relationship between ENSO and monsoons at interannual and decadal time scales. The study begins with an analysis of the monsoon simulation in the twentieth-century integrations. Six of the 18 models were found to have a reasonably realistic representation of monsoon precipitation climatology. For each of these six models SST and anomalous precipitation evolution along the equatorial Pacific during El Niño events display considerable differences when compared to observations. Out of these six models only four [Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model versions 2.0 and 2.1 (GFDL_CM_2.0 and GFDL_CM_2.1), Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) model, and Max Planck Institute ECHAM5 (MPI_ECHAM5)] exhibit a robust ENSO–monsoon contemporaneous teleconnection, including the known inverse relationship between ENSO and rainfall variations over India. Lagged correlations between the all-India rainfall (AIR) index and Niño-3.4 SST reveal that three models represent the timing of the teleconnection, including the spring predictability barrier, which is manifested as the transition from positive to negative correlations prior to the monsoon onset. Furthermore, only one of these three models (GFDL_CM_2.1) captures the observed phase lag with the strongest anticorrelation of SST peaking 2–3 months after the summer monsoon, which is partially attributable to the intensity of the simulated El Niño itself. The authors find that the models that best capture the ENSO–monsoon teleconnection are those that correctly simulate the timing and location of SST and diabatic heating anomalies in the equatorial Pacific and the associated changes to the equatorial Walker circulation during El Niño events. The strength of the AIR-Niño-3.4 SST correlation in the model runs waxes and wanes to some degree on decadal time scales. The overall magnitude and time scale for this decadal modulation in most of the models is similar to that seen in observations. However, there is little consistency in the phase among the realizations, suggesting a lack of predictability of the decadal modulation of the monsoon–ENSO relationship. The analysis was repeated for each of the four models using results from integrations in which the atmospheric CO2 concentration was raised to twice preindustrial values. From these “best” models in the double CO2 simulations there are increases in both the mean monsoon rainfall over the Indian subcontinent (by 5%–25%) and in its interannual variability (5%–10%). For each model the ENSO–monsoon correlation in the global warming runs is very similar to that in the twentieth-century runs, suggesting that the ENSO–monsoon connection will not weaken as global climate warms. This result, though plausible, needs to be taken with some caution because of the diversity in the simulation of ENSO variability in the coupled models that have been analyzed. Implications of the present results for monsoon prediction are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The detection and attribution of climate change in the observed record play a central role in synthesizing knowledge of the climate system. Unfortunately, the traditional method for detecting and attributing changes due to multiple forcings requires large numbers of general circulation model (GCM) simulations incorporating different initial conditions and forcing scenarios, and these have only been performed with a small number of GCMs. This paper presents an extension to the fingerprinting technique that permits the inclusion of GCMs in the multisignal analysis of surface temperature even when the required families of ensembles have not been generated. This is achieved by fitting a series of energy balance models (EBMs) to the GCM output in order to estimate the temporal response patterns to the various forcings. This methodology is applied to the very large Challenge ensemble of 62 simulations of historical climate conducted with the NCAR Community Climate System Model version 1.4 (CCSM1.4) GCM, as well as some simulations from other GCMs. Considerable uncertainty exists in the estimates of the parameters in fitted EBMs. Nevertheless, temporal response patterns from these EBMs are more reliable and the combined EBM time series closely mimics the GCM in the context of transient forcing. In particular, detection and attribution results from this technique appear self-consistent and consistent with results from other methods provided that all major forcings are included in the analysis. Using this technique on the Challenge ensemble, the estimated responses to changes in greenhouse gases, tropospheric sulfate aerosols, and stratospheric volcanic aerosols are all detected in the observed record, and the responses to the greenhouse gases and tropospheric sulfate aerosols are both consistent with the observed record without a scaling of the amplitude being required. The result is that the temperature difference of the 1996–2005 decade relative to the 1940–49 decade can be attributed to greenhouse gas emissions, with a partially offsetting cooling from sulfate emissions and little contribution from natural sources. The results support the viability of the new methodology as an extension to current analysis tools for the detection and attribution of climate change, which will allow the inclusion of many more GCMs. Shortcomings remain, however, and so it should not be considered a replacement to traditional techniques. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This review paper discusses the physical basis and the potential for decadal climate predictability over the Atlantic and its adjacent land areas. Many observational and modeling studies describe pronounced decadal and multidecadal variability in the Atlantic Ocean. However, it still needs to be quantified to which extent the variations in the ocean drive variations in the atmosphere and over land. In particular, although a clear impact of the Tropics on the midlatitudes has been demonstrated, it is unclear if and how the extratropical atmosphere responds to midlatitudinal sea surface temperature anomalies. Although the mechanisms behind the decadal to multidecadal variability in the Atlantic sector are still controversial, there is some consensus that some of the longer-term multidecadal variability is driven by variations in the thermohaline circulation. The variations in the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation appear to be predictable one to two decades ahead, as shown by a number of perfect model predictability experiments. The next few decades will be dominated by these multidecadal variations, although the effects of anthropogenic climate change are likely to introduce trends. Some impact of the variations of the thermohaline circulation on the atmosphere has been demonstrated in some studies so that useful decadal predictions with economic benefit may be possible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper suggests a two-tiered climate insurance strategy that would support developing country adaptation to the risks of climate variability and meet the intent of Article 4.8 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The core of this strategy is the establishment of a climate insurance programme specialized in supporting developing country insurance-related initiatives for sudden- and slow-onset weather- related disasters. This programme could take many institutional forms, including an independent facility, a facility in partnership with other institutions of the donor community, or as part of a multi-purpose disaster management facility operated outside of the climate regime. Its main purpose would be to enable the establishment of public-private safety nets for climate-related shocks by assisting the development of (sometimes novel) insurance-related instruments that are affordable to the poor and coupled with actions and incentives for pro-active preventive measures. A second tier could provide disaster relief contingent on countries making credible efforts to manage their risks. Since it would be based on precedents of donor-supported insurance systems in developing countries, a main advantage of this proposed climate insurance strategy is its demonstrated feasibility. Other advantages include its potential for linking with related donor initiatives, providing incentives for loss reduction and targeting the most vulnerable. Many details and issues are left unresolved, and it is hoped that this suggested strategy will facilitate needed discussion on practical options for supporting adaptation to climate change in developing countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea ice is influential in regulating energy exchanges between the ocean and the atmosphere, and has figured prominently in scientific studies of climate change and climate feedbacks. However, sea ice is also a vital component of everyday life in Inuit communities of the circumpolar Arctic. Therefore, it is important to understand the links between the potential impacts of climate change on Arctic sea ice extent, distribution, and thickness as well as the related consequences for northern coastal populations. This paper explores the relationship between sea ice and climate change from both scientific and Inuit perspectives. Based on an overview of diverse literature the experiences, methods, and goals which differentiate local and scientific sea ice knowledge are examined. These efforts are considered essential background upon which to develop more accurate assessments of community vulnerability to climate, and resulting sea ice, change. Inuit and scientific perspectives may indeed be the ideal complement when investigating the links between sea ice and climate change, but effective and appropriate conceptual bridges need to be built between the two types of expertise. The complementary nature of these knowledge systems may only be realized, in a practical sense, if significant effort is expended to: (i) understand sea ice from both Inuit and scientific perspectives, along with their underlying differences; (ii) investigate common interests or concerns; (iii) establish meaningful and reciprocal research partnerships with Inuit communities; (iv) engage in, and improve, collaborative research methods; and, (v) maintain ongoing dialogue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper gives an update on the observed decadal variability of the earth radiation budget (ERB) using the latest altitude-corrected Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE)/Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS) Nonscanner Wide Field of View (WFOV) instrument Edition3 dataset. The effects of the altitude correction are to modify the original reported decadal changes in tropical mean (20°N to 20°S) longwave (LW), shortwave (SW), and net radiation between the 1980s and the 1990s from 3.1, -2.4, and -0.7 to 1.6, -3.0, and 1.4 W m-2, respectively. In addition, a small SW instrument drift over the 15-yr period was discovered during the validation of the WFOV Edition3 dataset. A correction was developed and applied to the Edition3 dataset at the data user level to produce the WFOV Edition3_Rev1 dataset. With this final correction, the ERBS Nonscanner-observed decadal changes in tropical mean LW, SW, and net radiation between the 1980s and the 1990s now stand at 0.7, -2.1, and 1.4 W m-2, respectively, which are similar to the observed decadal changes in the High-Resolution Infrared Radiometer Sounder (HIRS) Pathfinder OLR and the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) version FD record but disagree with the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Pathfinder ERB record. Furthermore, the observed interannual variability of near-global ERBS WFOV Edition3_Rev1 net radiation is found to be remarkably consistent with the latest ocean heat storage record for the overlapping time period of 1993 to 1999. Both datasets show variations of roughly 1.5 W m-2 in planetary net heat balance during the 1990s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: We show the massive reduction achievable, in both emissions and climate change impact, from enhanced nuclear energy use on the forecasts of future world energy use and its associated environmental impacts. A range encompassing the major scenarios for the World''s energy demand have been analyzed using the latest version of the climate-modeling MAGICC/SCENGEN software (Version 4.1). We have updated and predicted the impacts of 80% substitution with CO2-free sources (likely predominantly nuclear) for coal-fired electricity (by 2030) and for transportation fuel (by 2040). For transportation, hydrogen produced by CO2-free sources would replace gasoline and diesel fuels. In this paper, to bracket the range of futures, we simply focus on two scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change''s (IPCC), one (A1FI) that is energy-profligate and one (B2) that is energy-conserving. The results show that, interestingly, projected average global temperatures for all scenarios are fairly similar until about 2035 (a further rise beyond the 1990 average temperature of +0.75±0.1K) regardless of energy usage and its sources. However, by 2050, the different IPCC scenarios diverge markedly. Understandably, A1FI is projected to have noticeably stronger effects than B2 on average global temperatures (about 0.3K more in 2050) but the effect is much stronger over land at mid and high latitudes (up to almost 1K more). What is most striking is that the substitution of CO2-free sources gives projected average temperature rises in 2050 over key land areas (North America and China) that are very similar for the two energy-use scenarios—typically 1–1.5K because A1FI''s additional energy is predominantly supplied by nuclear. In contrast, projected rises with the unaltered cases are markedly different being about 2.5K for A1FI and 1.5–2K for B2. The projected changes in rainfall distribution show similar patterns, especially for the expected increases in higher latitudes. With the assumption of no additional policies for substitution of energy sources beyond 2040, temperature divergence between the two scenarios of relative energy profligacy or conservation grows in the latter half of the 21st century, even with substitution. However, the early substitution of nuclear energy and hydrogen appears to buy time and is not crucially dependent on severe, near-term curtailment of energy use. Near-term curtailment is too difficult to implement at a time of rapid industrialization of major emerging economies. Of course, proportionately larger deployments of CO2-free energy sources are needed for more energy-intensive scenarios. Nuclear power must dominate as the source of CO2-free energy since it is proven, dependable, available on a large scale, and economic. Social objections to nuclear energy in some countries and quarters are seen as well-meaning but misguided distractions from solving the energy and environmental crises that are now facing world sustainability. The time for real technical, social and political action is now. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Processes in the climate system that can either amplify or dampen the climate response to an external perturbation are referred to as climate feedbacks. Climate sensitivity estimates depend critically on radiative feedbacks associated with water vapor, lapse rate, clouds, snow, and sea ice, and global estimates of these feedbacks differ among general circulation models. By reviewing recent observational, numerical, and theoretical studies, this paper shows that there has been progress since the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in (i) the understanding of the physical mechanisms involved in these feedbacks, (ii) the interpretation of intermodel differences in global estimates of these feedbacks, and (iii) the development of methodologies of evaluation of these feedbacks (or of some components) using observations. This suggests that continuing developments in climate feedback research will progressively help make it possible to constrain the GCMs’ range of climate feedbacks and climate sensitivity through an ensemble of diagnostics based on physical understanding and observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Solar variability influences the climate of a planet by radiatively forcing changes over a certain timescale; orbital variations of a planet, which yield similar solar forcing modulations, can be studied within the same scientific context. It is known for Earth that obliquity changes have played a critical role in pacing glacial and interglacial eras. For Mars, such orbital changes have been far greater and have generated extreme variations in insolation. Signatures associated with the presence of water ice reservoirs at various positions across the surface of Mars during periods of different orbital configurations have been identified. For this reason, it has been proposed that Mars is currently evolving between ice ages. The advent of climate tools has given a theoretical frame to the study of orbitally-induced climate changes on Mars. These models have provided an explanation to many puzzling observations, which when put together have permitted reconstruction of almost the entire history of Mars in the last 10 million years. This paper proposes to give an overview of the scientific work dedicated to this topic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we characterize the climate at Nadi and Suva in Fiji from 1961 to the present, providing a picture of ongoing climate trends. The focus is on surface observations of air temperature and rainfall, although some information on South Pacific Ocean climate is also discussed, given its relevance for Fiji. Our findings suggest that surface air temperatures have registered increasing trends at both Suva and Nadi (the two observatory sites in Fiji identified as Weather Observing Stations under the global network of the World Meteorological Organization) during the period 1961-2003. There has been a steady increase in the number of days per year with warmer nighttime temperatures in recent decades. The rise in annual mean surface air temperature over Suva was ∼1.2 °C over the 43-yr period considered here (at a significantly increasing rate of 0.25 °C per decade, which is 1.5 times higher than the trends in global average temperature increase during the past century). The rate of increase in annual mean surface air temperature at Nadi was 0.07 °C per decade. No trend in annual mean rainfall has been observed, however, at either of the locations. Significant interannual variability in annual as well as summer rainfall observed at both sites (including extreme rainfall events during the 43-yr period) can largely be attributed to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and intraseasonal oscillations in the mean position of the South Pacific Convergence Zone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to evaluate current knowledge and uncertainties associated with the impact of increasing greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations on the West African monsoon. For this purpose, coupled and time-slice simulations are used. A global measure of the monsoon changes is defined in order to avoid regional biases and to try and obtain significant results. The position and width of the monsoon in latitude are the main focuses. There is almost no agreement between the Coupled General Circulation models from the Coupled models Inter-Comparison project—Phase II in regard to the impact of climate change on the monsoon. Moreover, very simple discriminations between the models seem inappropriate to get a better signal. The role of the different forcings in time-slice simulations is then investigated. The sea surface temperature (SST) and particularly the pattern of the SST are shown to be the most important forcing. This accounts for the diversity of the results either from the coupled or the forced simulations with different SST changes. With a fixed SST, but of a smaller magnitude in AMJ, there are still uncertainties, coming first from the Atmospheric General Circulation models and the way they balance greenhouse gas and global SST increase. Finally the uncertainty due to the Land Surface models (LSMs) is not negligible. The greenhouse gas and the LSMs are shown to have more impact in August, when the monsoon is at its highest latitude on the continent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]