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Rainfall in the Moist Tropical Caribbean Region (MTCR) in Costa Rica occurs practically throughout the year, with the quarters June–August (JJA) and December–February (DJF) concentrating over 70% of annual rainfall. Contrarily, in March–April and September–October, it rains below 100 mm per month. This seasonal rainfall behavior makes the region ideal for producing bananas (Musa spp.) and pineapple (Ananas comosus) for export (10% and 8% of total exports in 2021, respectively). A national-scale study determined that agriculture in the MTCR is one of the most vulnerable sectors to climate changes. However, the climate in this region has been poorly studied so far. This research analyzed the spatial and temporal variability of annual, monthly, and seasonal (DJF, JJA, SO) rainfall in the MTCR and how they change in the study period based on quality-checked series of daily rainfall from 28 weather stations in two periods: 1985–2009 and 1997–2019. The results show that rainfall regimes in the region are variable in space and throughout the year, with peaks occurring close to the mountain range and minimum values close to the coast. Trends were statistically significant in the period 1985–2009 with a predominance of significant positive trends in DJF and significant negative trends in SO. No significant trends (positive or negative) were observed in the period 1997–2019. JJA rainfall has uneven regional distribution and presents a positive and significant trend in the mountain region. This paper contributes to filling the knowledge gap in rainfall seasonality, variability, and trends in a region where banana and pineapple commercial plantations are fundamental to the country's economy thus providing information to decision-making in the agri-food sector to reduce the negative impacts of changing rainfall regimes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate variations in the Caribbean, largely manifest in rainfall activity, have important consequences for the large-scale water budget, natural vegetation, and land use in the region. The wet and dry seasons will be defined, and the important roles played by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in modulating the rainfall during these seasons will be discussed. The seasonal climate forecasts in this paper are made by 13 state of the art coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (CGCMs) and by the Florida State University Synthetic Superensemble (FSUSSE), whose forecasts are obtained by a weighted combination of the individual CGCM forecasts based on a training period. The success of the models in simulating the observed 1989–2001 climatology of the various forecast parameters will be examined and linked to the models’ success in predicting the seasonal climate for individual years. Seasonal forecasts will be examined for precipitation, sea-surface temperature (SST), 2-meter air temperature, and 850 hPa u- and v-wind components during the period 1989–2001. Evaluation metrics include root mean square (RMS) error and Brier skill score. It will be shown that the FSUSSE is superior to the individual CGCMs and their ensemble mean both in simulating the 1989–2001 climatology for the various parameters and in predicting the seasonal climate of the various parameters for individual years. The seasonal climate forecasts of the FSUSSE and of the ensemble mean of the 13 state of the art CGCMs will be evaluated for years (during the period 1989–2001) that have particular ENSO and NAO signals that are known to influence Caribbean weather, particularly the rainfall. It will be shown that the FSUSSE provides superior forecasts of rainfall, SST, 2-meter air temperature, and 850 hPa u- and v-wind components during dry summers that are modulated by negative SOI and/or positive NAO indices. Such summers have become a feature of a twenty-year pattern of drought in the Caribbean region. The results presented in this paper will show that the FSUSSE is a valuable tool for forecasting rainfall and other atmospheric and oceanic variables during such periods of drought. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the international community debates long-term strategies to address global warming, the issue is one of increasing concern for small island developing states. Collectively, these countries account for less than 1% of greenhouse gas emissions, yet their vulnerabilities are particularly high. This paper reviews international efforts including a regional effort on the part of 12 Caribbean countries to address this issue. For many countries and especially countries of the Caribbean and other small island developing states, vulnerabilities already exist and will only be exacerbated by accelerated global warming. Dealing with global environmental change will require good, reliable information to monitor change and assess the physical and economic impact of that change. It also will require an institutional and managerial framework that incorporates dynamic change into individual and collective decision-making processes. Small island developing states must be active players affecting long-term solutions to climate change. In the interim, targeted investments to address high priority vulnerabilities are likely to lead to no-regrets outcomes with high environmental and economic benefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forty years (1980–2019) of reanalysis data were used to investigate climatology and trends of heat stress in the Caribbean region. Represented via the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), a multivariate thermophysiological‐relevant parameter, the highest heat stress is found to be most frequent and geographically widespread during the rainy season (August, September, and October). UTCI trends indicate an increase of more than 0.2°C·decade−1, with southern Florida and the Lesser Antilles witnessing the greatest upward rates (0.45°C·decade−1). Correlations with climate variables known to induce heat stress reveal that the increase in heat stress is driven by increases in air temperature and radiation, and decreases in wind speed. Conditions of heat danger, as depicted by the heat index (HI), have intensified since 1980 (+1.2°C) and are found to occur simultaneously to conditions of heat stress suggesting a synergy between heat illnesses and physiological responses to heat. This work also includes the analysis of the record‐breaking 2020 heat season during which the UTCI and HI achieved above average values, indicating that local populations most likely experienced heat stress and danger higher than the ones they are used to. These findings confirm the gradual intensification of heat stress in the Caribbean and aim to provide a guidance for heat‐related policies in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Through an empirical investigation of the historical relationship between the destination climate and tourist arrivals in the Caribbean, this study presents the first revealed preference evaluation of a climate index informed by tourists' stated climatic preferences for coastal-beach tourism (i.e., a sun-sand-surf or 3S travel market). The goal of this multi-organization collaboration was to examine the potential application of a newly designed climate index—the Holiday Climate Index (HCI):Beach—for three Caribbean destinations (Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, Saint Lucia). This paper provides an overview of the evolution of climate indices, including the development of the (HCI):Beach. To test the validity of climate indices for a beach travel market, daily climate ratings based on outputs from the Tourism Climate Index and the HCI were correlated with monthly arrivals data from Canada (a key source market) at an island destination scale. The results underscore the strength of the new index, with each destination scoring consistently higher using the HCI:Beach, including a stronger relationship (R2) between index scores and tourist arrivals. These findings demonstrate the value of combining stated and revealed preference methodologies to predict tourism demand and highlight opportunities for future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Wave climate is highly variable on the world''s coast and its temporal changes and extremes usually imply consequences like erosion or impacts to infrastructures. Alterations in wave climate were little addressed in the four IPCC reports although variations in wave climate may cause extensive coastal impacts. Changes are also often related to climate pattern variability. This variability as well as long-term trends has been an issue of research in recent years. In the region of Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) an understanding of wave climate and its variability is scant. In this paper we use an extensively calibrated and validated wave reanalysis to describe the wave climatology in the region at different time scales and for scalar and directional wave parameters. Long-term changes are identified in the wave heights and mean direction of the energy flux shows high spatial variability. Correlation patterns of the mean significant wave height and direction of mean energy flux lead to the detection of prominent modes of influence of several climate indices. A wave climate type approach is also used to identify wave variability along the region that allows an identification of different wave climate types in terms of wave parameters and occurrence frequency. In line with the results, the influence of El Niño events shows a higher frequency of occurrence of certain sea-states with respect to non ENSO years. We also explore how climate change affecting storm patterns may be translated into a modification of sea-state occurrence and therefore implying different consequences for coastal zones depending on local wave propagation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Caribbean economies, lifestyles, activities, practices and operational cycles are intricately linked to climate, making them vulnerable to its variations and/or changes. As examples, climate extremes impact agriculture, fisheries, health, tourism, water availability, recreation, and energy usage, among other things. There is however limited incorporation of climate information in the long term developmental plans and policies of the region. This is in part due to a knowledge deficit about climate change, it's likely manifestation in the region and the possible impact on Caribbean societies. In this paper, a review of the growing bank of knowledge about Caribbean climate science; variability and change is undertaken. Insight is offered into the basic science of climate change, past trends and future projections for Caribbean climate, and the possible implications for the region. In the end a case is made for a greater response to the threats posed by climate change on the basis of the sufficiency of our current knowledge of Caribbean climate science. A general profile of what the response may look like is also offered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT A workshop was held at the University of the West Indies, Jamaica, in May 2012 to build capacity in climate data rescue and to enhance knowledge about climate change in the Caribbean region. Scientists brought their daily observational surface temperature and precipitation data from weather stations for an assessment of quality and homogeneity and for the calculation of climate indices helpful for studying climate change in their region. This study presents the trends in daily and extreme temperature and precipitation indices in the Caribbean region for records spanning the 1961-2010 and 1986-2010 intervals. Overall, the results show a warming of the surface air temperature at land stations. In general, the indices based on minimum temperature show stronger warming trends than indices calculated from maximum temperature. The frequency of warm days, warm nights and extreme high temperatures has increased while fewer cool days, cool nights and extreme low temperatures were found for both periods. Changes in precipitation indices are less consistent and the trends are generally weak. Small positive trends were found in annual total precipitation, daily intensity, maximum number of consecutive dry days and heavy rainfall events particularly during the period 1986-2010. Correlations between indices and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation ( AMO) index suggest that temperature variability and, to a lesser extent, precipitation extremes are related to the AMO signal of the North Atlantic surface sea temperatures: stronger associations are found in August and September for the temperature indices and in June and October for some of the precipitation indices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study of Caribbean climate pre-1990 focused almost exclusively on attempts to link spatial patterns in climatic variables to physical processes. Much of this research assumed a 'simple' regional climate, warm year round with a wet season dominated by tropical cyclones, but researchers soon found that a precipitation regionalization of the Caribbean was not as straightforward and simple. Consequently, a satisfactory understanding of the regional precipitation climate has eluded researchers for much of the second half of the twentieth century. Recently, with the increased availability and quality of satellite and precipitation data, researchers have begun to use gridded data sets to identify the spatial boundaries of the bimodal precipitation region and the atmospheric processes associated with the two maxima and minimum in precipitation. The findings of these most recent studies can be combined to construct a five part (North Atlantic high pressure, low level Caribbean jet, subsidence caused by Central America convection, basin wide increased wind shear, and divergence around Jamaica) conceptual Caribbean precipitation model that begins to address spatial variability in the bimodal structure of annual rainfall and the development of the midsummer minimum in precipitation. Such a regional precipitation climate model provides hypotheses to be tested and investigated in future research. Further, researchers must work towards a more effective and clear communication of the bimodal nature of Caribbean precipitation and the associated summer decrease in precipitation, integrate upper air analysis into the current working hypotheses, and further examine the interannual to interdecadal variability of the Caribbean midsummer drought for prediction purposes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article offers information on the climatology and the future climate change in the Caribbean region based on the global general circulation. A climatological analysis on climate variations in the Caribbean is presented, followed by discussion on climate change scenarios based on the findings from Parallel Climate Model (PCM). PCM is utilized to study the impact of the global anthropogenic carbon dioxide concentration on the Caribbean climate. Evolution of Sea Surface Temperature (SST), cloud formation and solar radiative interactions affect the volume and frequency of rainfall. A future warming is predicted to reach one degree Celsius, along with increase in rain fall during the wet season, and a possible increase in tropical storm in the region.