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Abstract: This paper estimates the effects of humidity and temperature on mortality rates in the United States (c. 1973–2002) in order to provide an insight into the potential health impacts of climate change. I find that humidity, like temperature, is an important determinant of mortality. Coupled with Hadley CM3 climate-change predictions, I project that mortality rates are likely to change little on the aggregate for the United States. However, distributional impacts matter: mortality rates are likely to decline in cold and dry areas, but increase in hot and humid areas. Further, accounting for humidity has important implications for evaluating these distributional effects. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Drawing from theory on the "co-production" of science and society, this paper provides an account of trajectories in US climatology, roughly from the 1850s to 1920, the period during which climatology emerged as an organized branch of meteorology and government administration. The historical narrative traces the development of climatology both as a professional/institutional project and as a component of a larger governmental logic. Historical analysis of climatologists' scientific texts, maps, and social organization within government provides a sociological explanation for the emergent "stabilization" of climate as a geographic-statistical category. Climatic stability, defined by the view that climate is unchanging, was advanced over this period in a way that linked the interests and practices of climatologists to actors invested in facilitating and administrating commercial agriculture and trade. I position the logic of climatology and the discourse of climatic stability historically, with reference to prior concern with climate change and, in recent decades, efforts to govern global warming through geoengineering climatic stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme precipitation can have significant adverse impacts on infrastructure and property, human health, and local economies. This paper examines recent changes in extreme precipitation in the northeast United States. Daily station data from 58 stations missing less than 5% of days for the years 1979–2014 from the U.S. Historical Climatology Network were used to analyze extreme precipitation, defined as the top 1% of days with precipitation. A statistically significant (95% confidence level) increasing trend of the threshold for the top 1% of extreme precipitation events was found (0.3 mm yr−1). This increasing trend was due to both an increase in the frequency of extreme events and the magnitude of extreme events. Rainfall events ≥ 150 mm (24-h accumulation) increased in frequency from 6 events between 1979 and 1996 to 25 events between 1997 and 2014, a 317% increase. The annual daily maximum precipitation, or the highest recorded precipitation amount in a given year, increased by an average of 1.6 mm yr−1, a total increase of 58.0 mm. Decreasing trends in extreme precipitation were observed east of Lake Erie during the warm season. Increasing trends in extreme precipitation were most robust during the fall months of September, October, and November, and particularly at locations further inland. The analysis showed that increases in events that were tropical in nature, or associated with tropical moisture, led to the observed increase in extreme precipitation during the fall months. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although substantial attention has focused on efforts by the new Administration to block environmental policies, climate politics have been contentious in the US since well before the election of Donald Trump. In this paper, we extend previous work on empirical examinations of echo chambers in US climate politics using new data collected on the federal climate policy network in summer 2016. We test for the similarity and differences at two points in time in homophily and echo chambers using Exponential Random Graph Models (ERGM) to compare new findings from 2016 to previous work on data from 2010. We show that echo chambers continue to play a significant role in the network of information exchange among policy elites working on the issue of climate change. In contrast to previous findings where echo chambers centered on a binding international commitment to emission reductions, we find that the pre-existing echo chambers have almost completely disappeared and new structures have formed around one of the main components of the Obama Administration’s national climate policy: the Clean Power Plan. These results provide empirical evidence that science communication and policymaking at the elite level shift in relation to the policy instruments under consideration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Traditionally, the daily average air temperature at a weather station is computed by taking the mean of two values, the maximum temperature (Tmax) and the minimum temperature (Tmin), over a 24-h period. These values form the basis for numerous studies of long-term climatologies (e.g., 30-yr normals) and recent temperature trends and changes. However, many first-order weather stations-such as those at airports-also record hourly temperature data. Using an average of the 24 hourly temperature readings to compute daily average temperature has been shown to provide a more precise and representative estimate of a given day's temperature. This study assesses the spatial variability of the differences in these two methods of daily temperature averaging [i.e., (Tmax 1 Tmin)/2; average of 24 hourly temperature values] for 215 first-order weather stations across the conterminous United States (CONUS) over the 30-yr period 1981-2010. A statistically significant difference is shown between the two methods, as well as consistent overestimation of temperature by the traditional method [(Tmax 1 Tmin)/2], particularly in southern and coastal portions of the CONUS. The explanation for the long-term difference between the two methods is the underlying assumption for the twice-daily method that the diurnal curve of temperature is symmetrical. Moreover, this paper demonstrates a spatially coherent pattern in the difference compared to the most recent part of the temperature record (2001-15). The spatial and temporal differences shown have implications for assessments of the physical factors influencing the diurnal temperature curve, as well as the exact magnitude of contemporary climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

James C. Knox’s 1977 paper “Human Impacts on Wisconsin Stream Channels,” published in the Annals of the Association of American Geographers, was a key component of a suite of three papers by him defining the response of rivers to the introduction and management of agriculture and to climate change. In this paper he used the Driftless Area of southwest Wisconsin as a laboratory where he could define fluvial responses by their sedimentary signatures in floodplain deposits. Land-use records dating back to the early 19th century along with shorter climate records provided his understanding of the drivers of change. He found that floods increased as an outcome of land-cover change. Upstream tributaries became wider and shallower as coarse deposits limited their adjustments, while main stem channels became narrower and deeper. His paper reflected the influence of his graduate advisor and especially of prominent faculty colleagues at the University of Wisconsin from fields ranging from soils and climatology to geomorphology and history. The paper was the subject of considerable debate in the professional community, but it remains a much-cited example of Knox’s work in unraveling the Quaternary and Holocene history of rivers of the Driftless Area and by extension the upper Mississippi River system. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The objective of this paper is to assess recent developments and prospects for future changes in United States (US) climate strategy. In doing so, the paper explores some of the key factors that have shaped strategies and policies to date, distinguishing between factors related to institutional and governance structures, linkages between science and policy, energy technology and the role of interest groups. Against this background, the paper attempts to explore future development paths for US climate policy. More specifically, the paper assesses opportunities for policy changes compared to the preferences of the current administration, and the prospects for future linkages between US and international climate change strategies. In brief, the paper argues that substantial changes are unlikely to take place in the near to medium term, leaving open, however, the possibility of wide-ranging changes in domestic politics or major incidents that could facilitate a shift in the perceived need for near-term action. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The eastern United States is vulnerable to flooding from tropical cyclone rainfall. Understanding how both the frequency and intensity of this rainfall will change in the future climate is a major challenge. One promising approach is the dynamical downscaling of relatively coarse general circulation model results using higher-resolution regional climate models (RCMs). In this paper, we examine the frequency of landfalling tropical cyclones and associated rainfall properties over the eastern United States using Zetac, an 18-km resolution RCM designed for modeling Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. Simulations of 1980-2006 tropical cyclone frequency and rainfall intensity for the months of August-October are compared against results from previous studies and observation-based datasets. The 1980-2006 control simulations are then compared against results from three future climate scenarios: CMIP3/A1B (late twenty-first century) and CMIP5/RCP4.5 (early and late twenty-first century). In CMIP5 early and late twenty-first century projections, the frequency of occurrence of post-landfall tropical cyclones shows little net change over much of the eastern U.S. despite a decrease in frequency over the ocean. This reflects a greater landfalling fraction in CMIP5 projections, which is not seen in CMIP3-based projections. Average tropical cyclone rain rates over land within 500 km of the storm center increase by 8-17 % in the future climate projections relative to control. This is at least as much as expected from the Clausius-Clapeyron relation, which links a warmer atmosphere to greater atmospheric water vapor content. Over land, the percent enhancement of area-averaged rain rates from a given tropical cyclone in the warmer climate is greater for larger averaging radius (300-500 km) than near the storm, particularly for the CMIP3 projections. Although this study does not focus on attribution, the findings are broadly consistent with historical tropical cyclone rainfall changes documented in a recent observational study. The results may have important implications for future flood risks from tropical cyclones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The semi-arid US Intermountain West is characterized by complex hydroclimatic variability, influenced both by topography and by atmosphere and ocean processes operating over a large range of time and space scales. Understanding climate–hydrology interactions has become increasingly important as demands on water resources grow from both within and beyond the region, particularly in light of projected climate changes. This paper reviews key atmospheric and oceanic controls that impact the Intermountain West’s water supply, how those controls vary over multiple timescales, the tree-ring record of hydroclimatic variability in the region, projected climate change impacts, and research needs for the future. Water availability in the Intermountain West is largely influenced by interrelated atmospheric features that include the strength and position of the Pacific subtropical high, the intensity and geographic location of the Aleutian low, the latitude of the westerly storm track, and teleconnections such as the Pacific North American pattern and the El Niño−Southern Oscillation system. The tree-ring record of pre-instrumental conditions in the Intermountain West indicates that there have been droughts in the past that were more severe than those experienced in the historical record. Climate model projections of future moisture-related changes, including decreased snowpack and changing seasonality of precipitation, may exacerbate strain on the region’s water supply. Advances in climate modeling and in our understanding of climate variability over multiple time and space scales would improve capacity for water resource management in the Intermountain West. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

At the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), a reanalysis of the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and land over the period 1979-2009, referred to as the climate forecast system reanalysis (CFSR), was recently completed. The oceanic component of CFSR includes many advances: (a) the MOM4 ocean model with an interactive sea-ice, (b) the 6 h coupled model forecast as the first guess, (c) inclusion of the mean climatological river runoff, and (d) high spatial (0.5° × 0.5°) and temporal (hourly) model outputs. Since the CFSR will be used by many in initializing/validating ocean models and climate research, the primary motivation of the paper is to inform the user community about the saline features in the CFSR ocean component, and how the ocean reanalysis compares with in situ observations and previous reanalysis. The net ocean surface heat flux of the CFSR has smaller biases compared to the sum of the latent and sensible heat fluxes from the objectively analyzed air-sea fluxes (OAFlux) and the shortwave and longwave radiation fluxes from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP-FD) than the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis (R1) and NCEP/DOE reanalysis (R2) in both the tropics and extratropics. The ocean surface wind stress of the CFSR has smaller biases and higher correlation with the ERA40 produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts than the R1 and R2, particularly in the tropical Indian and Pacific Ocean. The CFSR also has smaller errors compared to the QuickSCAT climatology for September 1999 to October 2009 than the R1 and R2. However, the trade winds of the CFSR in the central equatorial Pacific are too strong prior to 1999, and become close to observations once the ATOVS radiance data are assimilated in late 1998. A sudden reduction of easterly wind bias is related to the sudden onset of a warm bias in the eastern equatorial Pacific temperature around 1998/1999. The sea surface height and top 300 m heat content (HC300) of the CFSR compare with observations better than the GODAS in the tropical Indian Ocean and extratropics, but much worse in the tropical Atlantic, probably due to discontinuity in the deep ocean temperature and salinity caused by the six data streams of the CFSR. In terms of climate variability, the CFSR provides a good simulation of tropical instability waves and oceanic Kelvin waves in the tropical Pacific, and the dominant modes of HC300 that are associated with El Nino and Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper tries to identify one of the reasons for the poor land skin temperature simulated by a climate model over Greenland. It first compares ICEsat surface height measurements over Greenland with those used by the model and reveals that the surface height of Greenland prescribed in the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model/Community Land Model version 3 (CCSM/CLM3) differs greatly from the satellite measurements from National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) ICEsat at edges and central glacier regions. This deficiency, in part, leads to underestimated skin temperatures at coastal regions-the areas where significant ice sheet melt is observed. Furthermore, sensitivity studies reveal that surface skin temperature simulations of Greenland would be significantly improved if the more accurate surface height is used. The problem of the height used in current global climate model is mainly due to the fact that the model has to use coarse grid size, and within one grid, land surface height has high heterogeneity. How to assign a proper surface height for each model grid and meanwhile adequately present the high heterogeneity of land surface is a great challenge in current model development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Uncertainties in observed records of atmospheric temperature aloft remain poorly quantified. This has resulted in considerable controversy regarding signals of climate change over recent decades from temperature records of radiosondes and satellites. This work revisits the problems associated with the removal of inhomogeneities from the historical radiosonde temperature records, and provides a method for quantifying uncertainty in an adjusted radiosonde climate record due to the subjective choices made during the data homogenization. This paper presents an automated homogenization method designed to replicate the decisions made by manual judgment in the generation of an earlier radiosonde dataset [i.e., the Hadley Centre radiosonde temperature dataset (HadAT)]. A number of validation experiments have been conducted to test the system performance and impact on linear trends. Using climate model data to simulate biased radiosonde data, the authors show that limitations in the homogenization method are sufficiently large to explain much of the tropical trend discrepancy between HadAT and estimates from satellite platforms and climate models. This situation arises from the combination of systematic (unknown magnitude) and random uncertainties (of order 0.05 K decade-1) in the radiosonde data. Previous assessment of trends and uncertainty in HadAT is likely to have underestimated the systematic bias in tropical mean temperature trends. This objective assessment of radiosonde homogenization supports the conclusions of the synthesis report of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP), and associated research, regarding potential bias in tropospheric temperature records from radiosondes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Mark 2 global coupled climatic model has been used to generate a 10 000-yr simulation of “present” climate. The resultant dataset has been used to investigate a number of aspects of extremes associated with annual mean rainfall. Multimillennial time series of normalized rainfall amounts for selected points are used to highlight secular variability, spatial variations, and the differences between pluvial and drought conditions. Global distributions are also presented for selected rainfall characteristics, including the frequency of occurrence of specified rainfall anomalies with annual durations, the frequency of occurrence of 5-yr sequences of specified rainfall anomalies, and the maximum and minimum normalized rainfall amounts attained in the simulation. Such features cannot be obtained from observations because of their limited duration. A case study is also made of a megadrought over the southwestern United States, together with an analysis of the associated causal mechanisms. Given the exclusion of all external forcing from the model, it is concluded that the extreme annual mean rainfall extremes presented in the paper are attributable to stochastic events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study of climate change has deep roots in the history of North American ecology. At the time of the Wall Street crash and the Depression of the 1930s, America's Great Plains were struck by the Dust Bowl, a phenomenon of catastrophic soil erosion that resulted from the combined effects of intensive farming practices and a particularly harsh drought. Contemporaneously, the ecologist Frederic Clements proposed a theory of plant succession that itself took the history of the Great Plains as its model, and drew on the notion of climatic cycles. This theory became established as the model for ecological expertise in the politics of conservation adopted by the Roosevelt administration. In this paper, I will show how climatology became inscribed in plant ecology not only for epistemological reasons, but also due to an ideology that promoted the ecologist as an expert in the optimization of resources, in an illustration of the tripartite relationship between ecology, politics, and climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

If uncontrolled, human influences on the climate system may generate changes that will endanger various aspects of life on Earth. The precise implications of the scientific claims about climate change, and the extent to which they pose dangers to various populations, are becoming intensely debated at many levels in relation to policy. How 'danger' is interpreted will ultimately affect which actions are taken. In this paper, we examine how climate change is conceptualised by publics in Europe and in the USA. Although there is widespread concern about climate change, it is of secondary importance in comparison to other issues in people's daily lives. Most individuals relate to climate change through personal experience, knowledge, the balance of benefits and costs, and trust in other societal actors. We analyse these factors through findings from various surveys and studies, which highlight both the distinctiveness and some shared perspectives at a generalised level. We reflect upon these in relation to trust and responsibility for climate change action, and risk communication, supporting the call for discourses about climate change to also be situated in people's locality, as a means of increasing its saliency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the authors analyze simulations of present and future climates in the western United States performed with four regional climate models (RCMs) nested within two global ocean–atmosphere climate models. The primary goal here is to assess the range of regional climate responses to increased greenhouse gases in available RCM simulations. The four RCMs used different geographical domains, different increased greenhouse gas scenarios for future-climate simulations, and (in some cases) different lateral boundary conditions. For simulations of the present climate, RCM results are compared to observations and to results of the GCM that provided lateral boundary conditions to the RCM. For future-climate (increased greenhouse gas) simulations, RCM results are compared to each other and to results of the driving GCMs. When results are spatially averaged over the western United States, it is found that the results of each RCM closely follow those of the driving GCM in the same region in both present and future climates. This is true even though the study area is in some cases a small fraction of the RCM domain. Precipitation responses predicted by the RCMs in many regions are not statistically significant compared to interannual variability. Where the predicted precipitation responses are statistically significant, they are positive. The models agree that near-surface temperatures will increase, but do not agree on the spatial pattern of this increase. The four RCMs produce very different estimates of water content of snow in the present climate, and of the change in this water content in response to increased greenhouse gases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Climate change has the potential to have an impact on the distribution of ticks and tick-borne diseases. This paper identifies the changes in climate suitability for the tick Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus in the Americas by analysing climate data for the period 1950–99. Location The model was applied to the American continent. Methods A model based on Environmental Niche Modelling was used on a gridded (0.5°) long-term (1950–99) climate data set. A map of the core range of the species was constructed, and areas where habitat suitability (HS) changes suddenly over short time periods were identified as regions of high sensitivity. Tendency of climate in the continent was evaluated and scenarios constructed for 2025 and 2050. Results Regions of high sensitivity included the southern USA, Mexico and western and central Argentina. Analysis of climate variables in these regions identified water vapour pressure deficit and evaporation as underlying the high sensitivity of habitat suitability in the USA and Mexico, and showed that episodes of high variability are linked to the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Projections of the tendency of HS as observed for the 1950–99 period point to an increase in this value in parts of the southern USA and in central Argentina, a finding that can be attributed to the progressive increase in minimum and yearly averaged temperatures. Conclusions Short-term changes in climate may drive the system into unstable situations with sudden changes in habitat suitability for the target tick in specific zones of the Americas. Results suggest an increased abiotic (climate) suitability for R. microplus in areas whose habitat is currently unsuitable for this species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2004 a new aspirated surface air temperature system was officially deployed nationally in the U.S. Climate Reference Network (USCRN) commissioned by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The primary goal of the USCRN is to provide future long-term and high-quality homogeneous observations of surface air temperature and precipitation that can be coupled to past long-term observations for the detection and attribution of present and future climate change. In this paper two precision air temperature systems are included for evaluating the new USCRN air temperature system based on a 1-yr side-by-side field comparison. The measurement errors of the USCRN temperature sensor are systematically analyzed, and the components of error attributable to the datalogger, lead wires, fixed resistors, and the temperature coefficient of the resistors are presented. Although the current configuration is adequate, a more desirable configuration of USCRN temperature sensor coupled with the datalogger is proposed as a means of further reducing the uncertainty for the USCRN temperature measurement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The EPIC (Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator) crop model, developed by scientists of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), has been successfully applied to the study of erosion, water pollution, crop growth and production in the US but is yet to be introduced for serious research purposes in other countries or regions. This paper reports on the applicability of the EPIC 8120 crop model for the assessment of the potential impacts of climate variability and climate change on crop productivity in sub-Saharan West Africa, using Nigeria as the case study. Among the crops whose productivity has been successfully simulated with this model are five of West Africa's staple food crops: maize, millet, sorghum (guinea corn), rice and cassava. Thus, using the model, the sensitivities of maize, sorghum and millet to seasonal rainfall were demonstrated with coefficients of correlation significant at over 98 per cent confidence limits. The validation tests were based on a comparison of the observed and the model-generated yields of rice and maize. The main problems of validation relate to the multiplicity of crop varieties with contrasting performances under similar field conditions. There are also the difficulties in representing micro-environments in the model. Thus, some gaps appear between the observed and the simulated yields, arising from data or model deficiencies, or both. Based on the results of the sensitivity and validation tests, the EPIC crop model could be satisfactorily employed in assessing the impacts of and adaptations to climate variability and climate change. Its use for the estimation of production and the assessment of vulnerabilities need to be pursued with further field surveys and field experimentation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The “Ricardian” technique for projecting climate change impacts on agriculture has generated an unusual amount of critical attention. Ricardian climate sensitivities are typically viewed as the necessary and static result of exclusively local economic and biophysical conditions. In this paper, six spatial econometric models are estimated to explore how human-environment relationships associated with climate sensitivities have varied over space and time in the Great Plains, 1969–1992. Results indicate that spatial effects, such as extra-local communication processes and proximity to and regulation of Ogallala irrigation water, are important influences on climate sensitivities. Projected climate change impacts also vary significantly with the scale, location, and time of analysis. Under a hypothetical climate change, at the county scale, land values would decline (by up to one-third) in the western counties, but increase (by up to one-half) in the eastern counties. In some cases, the projected impacts for a given county change algebraic sign or order of magnitude during the study period. At the regional scale, impacts are significantly higher in the early years (a projected increase of about 5 percent of regional land values, ∼$7 billion [1992$]) than in the later years (an increase of about one-half of one percent, ∼$0.7 billion). These results suggest that, suitably modified, the Ricardian framework can be used constructively to explore subtle yet important social dimensions of dynamic climate risk, and that on balance the Great Plains system of agricultural production, despite a heterogeneous picture of projected impacts, appears to be increasingly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The results of an experimental `end to end' assessment of the effects of climate change on water resources in the western United States are described. The assessment focuses on the potential effects of climate change over the first half of the 21st century on the Columbia, Sacramento/San Joaquin, and Colorado river basins. The paper describes the methodology used for the assessment, and it summarizes the principal findings of the study. The strengths and weaknesses of this study are discussed, and suggestions are made for improving future climate change assessments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Past studies have suggested that the drought of the summer of 1988 over the midwestern United States may have been caused by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, an evolving stationary circulation, a soil-moisture feedback on circulation and rainfall, or even by remote forcings. The relative importance of various contributing factors is investigated in this paper through the use of Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) GCM simulations. Seven different experiments, each containing an ensemble of four simulations, were conducted with the GCM. For each experiment, the GCM was integrated through the summers of 1987 and 1988 starting from an analyzed atmosphere in early January of each yeah In the baseline case, only the SST anomalies and climatological vegetation parameters were prescribed, while everything else (such as soil moisture, snow cover, and clouds) was interactive. The precipitation differences (1988 minus 1987) show that the GCM was successful in simulating reduced precipitation in 1988, hut the accompanying low-level circulation anomalies in the Midwest were not well simulated. To isolate the influence of the model's climate drift, analyzed winds and analyzed soil moisture were prescribed globally as continuous updates (in isolation or jointly). The results show that remotely advected wind biases (emanating from potential errors in the model's dynamics and physics) are the primary cause of circulation biases over North America. Inclusion of soil moisture helps to improve the simulation as well as to reaffirm the strong feedback between soil moisture and precipitation. In a case with both updated winds and soil moisture, the model produces more realistic evapotranspiration and precipitation differences. An additional case also used soil moisture and winds updates, but only outside North America. Its simulation is very similar to that of the case with globally updated winds and soil moisture, which suggests that North American simulation errors originate largely outside the region. Two additional cases examining the influence of vegetation were built on this case using correct and opposite-year vegetation. The model did not produce a discernible improvement in response to vegetation for the drought year. One may conclude that the soil moisture governs the outcome of the land-atmosphere feedback interaction far more than the vegetation parameters. A primary inference of this study is that even though SSTs have some influence on the drought, model biases strongly influence the prediction errors. It must be emphasized that the results from this study are dependent upon the GEOS model's identified errors and biases, and that the conclusions do not necessarily apply to results from other models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The regional climate of the western United States shows clear footprints of interaction between atmospheric circulation and orography. The unique features of this diverse climate regime challenges climate modeling. This paper provides detailed analyses of observations and regional climate simulations to improve our understanding and modeling of the climate of this region. The primary data used in this study are the 1/88 gridded temperature and precipitation based on station observations and the NCEP-NCAR global reanalyses. These data were used to evaluate a 20-yr regional climate simulation performed using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research (Penn State-NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) driven by large-scale conditions of the NCEP-NCAR reanalyses. Regional climate features examined include seasonal mean and extreme precipitation; distribution of precipitation rates; and precipitation intensity, frequency, and seasonality. The relationships between precipitation and surface temperature are also analyzed as a means to evaluate how well regional climate simulations can be used to simulate surface hydrology, and relationships between precipitation and elevation are analyzed as diagnostics of the impacts of surface topography and spatial resolution. The latter was performed at five east-west transects that cut across various topographic features in the western United States. These analyses suggest that the regional simulation realistically captures many regional climate features. The simulated seasonal mean and extreme precipitation are comparable to observations. The regional simulation produces precipitation over a wide range of precipitation rates comparable to observations. Obvious biases in the simulation include the oversimulation of precipitation in the basins and intermountain West during the cold season, and the undersimulation in the Southwest in the warm season. There is a tendency of reduced precipitation... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Attribution of extreme events is a challenging science and one that is currently undergoing considerable evolution. In this paper are 19 analyses by 18 different research groups, often using quite different methodologies, of 12 extreme events that occurred in 2012. In addition to investigating the causes of these extreme events, the multiple analyses of four of the events, the high temperatures in the United States, the record low levels of Arctic sea ice, and the heavy rain in northern Europe and eastern Australia, provide an opportunity to compare and contrast the strengths and weaknesses of the various methodologies. The differences also provide insights into the structural uncertainty of event attribution, that is, the uncertainty that arises directly from the differences in analysis methodology. In these cases, there was considerable agreement between the different assessments of the same event. However, different events had very different causes. Approximately half the analyses found some evidence that anthropogenically caused climate change was a contributing factor to the extreme event examined, though the effects of natural fluctuations of weather and climate on the evolution of many of the extreme events played key roles as well. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the petroleum industry, climate change, and politics as of June 2012 and how contemporary historians can establish a foundation for studying such subjects. The author examines what she calls U.S. attachment to petroleum-based energy and the implications it has upon the environment, the responses to climate change by the U.S. government, and the identification of historical turning points in the petroleum industry, politics, and public opinion. She examines the work of climate-change activist Bill McKibben.