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This paper investigates how former hunter-gatherers living along the southern North Sea coast in NW Europe adapted to long-term and short-term climatic and environmental changes at the beginning of the Holocene. It is argued that contemporaneous hunter-gatherers repeatedly changed their hunting equipment in response to changing climate and environment, not just for functional reasons but mainly driven by socio-territorial considerations. Based on a Bayesian analysis of 122 critically selected radiocarbon dates a broad chronological correlation is demonstrated between rapid changes in the design and technology of stone projectiles and short but abrupt cooling events, occurring at 10.3, 9.3 and 8.2 ka cal BP. Combined with the rapid sea level rises and increased wildfires these climatic events probably impacted the lifeways of hunter-gatherers in such a way that they increasingly faced resource stress and competition, forcing them to invest in the symbolic defense of their social territories. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Translating changes in land surface conditions and climate into changes in precipitation, runoff and flood frequencies over a range of catchment scales is a pressing challenge for hydrologic design and flood risk management today. In this paper, we describe a novel approach for modeling areal runoff frequency from heavy-to-extreme precipitation in large urban areas using a simple but general stochastic model for runoff at point scale and bi- and univariate parametric probability distributions for positive point precipitation and areal runoff, respectively. We apply the approach to the Dallas–Fort Worth area using a 22-year historical multisensor precipitation dataset from the National Weather Service to characterize how the different factors that specify the second-order statistics of precipitation, imperviousness and soil water holding capacity at point scale may shape areal runoff frequency, and to assess how changes in precipitation climatology and land surface conditions may change areal runoff frequency as a function of catchment scale and magnitude of precipitation. The results indicate that areal runoff frequency is impacted most significantly by changes in climatological mean and coefficient of variation of positive point precipitation, water holding capacity of soil, imperviousness, and spatial correlation scale of positive point precipitation given the probability of occurrence of heavy-to-extreme precipitation, and that a very small number of low-order statistics of point precipitation may describe areal runoff frequency given the conditional probability distribution models for point precipitation and areal runoff. The approach presented hence offers a parsimonious physically-based alternative to purely numerical approaches based on integrated modeling, or empirical approaches based solely on statistical modeling toward predictive modeling of areal precipitation and runoff frequencies under changing hydroclimatological conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Utilising climate funds properly to reduce the impact of potential risks of climate change at the local level is essential for successful adaptation to climate change. Climate change has been disrupting the lives of millions of households along the coastal region of Bangladesh. The country has allocated support from its national funds and accessed international funds for the implementation of adaptation interventions. With the focus of the scientific community on climate finance mechanisms and governance at the global and the national level, there is a lacuna in empirical evidence of how climate finance affects risk appraisal and engagement in adaptation measures at the local level. This paper aims to examine how the support from climate finance affects risk appraisal in terms of the perceived probability and severity and the factors which influence risk appraisal. A field survey was conducted on 240 climate finance recipient households (CF HHs) and 120 nonclimate finance recipient households (non-CF HHs) in Galachipa Upazila of Patuakhali District in coastal Bangladesh. The results indicate that both CF and non-CF HHs experience a high probability of facing climatic events in the future; however, CF HHs anticipated a higher severity of impacts of climatic events on different dimensions of their households. With higher income and social capital, the overall risk appraisal decreases for CF HHs. CF HHs have higher engagement in adaptation measures and social groups and maintain alternative sources of income. Climate finance played a critical role in supporting households in understanding the risks that they were facing, assisting them in exploring as well as enhancing their engagement in adaptation options. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change continues to be a global concern with impacts varying from region to region. Studies and observations establishing the evidence of climate change have often focused on global, regional, and national levels to the neglect of agro-ecological differences at local scale. Using trajectory and time series analysis of temperature anomalies and rainfall distributions for the agro-ecological zones of Ghana, this paper establishes a strong evidence of local climate change across the country in diverse agro-ecological zones. The evidence is based on the spatiotemporal analysis of the varying temperature and rainfall data observed from 1981 to 2009. The analysis shows local increases in temperatures for the period ranging from 0.5 to 1.0 °C with varying inter-annual rainfall distributions. The results explained the spatial differences in the agro-ecological zones in Ghana as a result of climate variability. The study provides supporting evidence for climate change using locally observed in-country data to compliment studies at global, regional, and national levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The practice of using climate metrics to estimate carbon dioxide equivalent emissions has long been subject to scientific discussion. One strand of this literature has analysed whether the choice of metric affects the relative cost-effectiveness of options for climate change abatement, but there has been little discussion on the effect of metric choices on cost-effective abatement of near-term climate forcers (NTCFs). These NTCFs are air pollutants primarily regulated by policies outside the climate policy arena and their estimated carbon dioxide equivalent emissions are not typically considered in the evaluation of cost-effective abatement. However, the attention to NTCFs as climate forcers has increased during the last decade. The objective of this paper is to identify whether the relative cost-effectiveness of different NTCF abatement options is robust to climate metric choices. We assess nine plausible NTCF abatement options available in Sweden (with negligible effect on long-lived GHG emissions) and evaluate the robustness of the ranking of these, according to their estimated cost-effectiveness. Different metric designs are considered as well as climate impact uncertainty of NTCFs, with corresponding uncertainty in metric values. The results indicate that the choice of metric has little effect on the ranking of the options according to their cost-effectiveness, with options affecting NOx indicated as an exception. This suggests that the choice of metric utilised when calculating cost-effectiveness of NTCF abatement options is likely to have minor effect on which NTCF abatement options should be targeted for policy interventions (if NOx emissions are not significantly affected). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in glacier length and extent are indicators of contemporary and archives of past climate changes, but this common climate proxy presents a challenge for inferring a climate signal. Modeling studies suggest that length fluctuations can occur due to interannual climate variability within an unchanging mean climate and that changes in interannual climate variability can also drive changes in average length. This paper quantifies the impacts of interannual climate variability on average glacier length and mass balance, using a flowline model coupled to a simplified mass-balance model. Results illustrate that changes in the magnitude of interannual temperature variability can non-linearly affect the mean glacier length through a mass-balance asymmetry between warm and cold years. This asymmetry is present in models where melt only initiates after a temperature threshold is crossed. Glaciers susceptible to this asymmetry can be identified based on the shape of their mass-balance profiles. The presence of mass-balance asymmetries in glaciological databases is evaluated, but current records are too short for high statistical resolving power. While the asymmetry in this study can affect the average length and mass-balance, its impacts are small, and paleoclimate interpretations from glacier-length changes are likely not notably influenced by this process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Economic inequality reduces the political space for addressing climate change, by producing fear-based populism. Only when the safety, social status, and livelihoods of all members of society are assured will voluntary, democratic decisions be possible to reverse climate change and fairly mitigate its effects. Socio-environmental and climate justice, commoning, and decolonization are pre-conditions for participatory, responsible governance that both signals and assists the development of equitable socio-political systems. Degrowth movements, when they explicitly prioritize equity, can help to focus activism for climate justice and sustainable livelihoods. This paper overviews the theoretical grounding for these arguments, drawing from the work of ecofeminist and Indigenous writers. Indigenous (and also ecofeminist) praxis is grounded in activists' leadership for commoning and resistance to extraction, the fossil fuel economy, and commodified property rights. These movements are building a politics of decolonization, respect, solidarity, and hope rather than xenophobia and despair. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents empirical evidence of historical vegetation and climate change in the arid Pro-Namib and hyper-arid Namib Desert spanning the late 19th century to the present based on one hundred archival landscape photographs that have been re-photographed or 'matched'. Each photo site was evaluated for changes in woody cover and taken together serve as a proxy for how climate has changed in the region. Vegetation change was related to values for precipitation and temperature derived from the Global Land Data Assimilation System for the period 1948–2017 as well as the number of fog days expected at a site. The resulting analysis reveals a trend of increased vegetation cover associated with increased precipitation (fog and rain) in the coastal Fogbelt and the inland Savanna transition with a shrinking of the hyper-arid Minimum zone between the two. These findings accord with projected effects of global warming on the Benguela upwelling system but are at variance with regional climate model forecasts that project widespread aridification. In the absence of long-term climate data, the results of this research are an important contribution of evidence-based knowledge of past climate trends and their relationship to future climate change scenarios for the region. • Global change models predict Namibia becoming hotter leading to aridification. • We used historical photos of the Pro-Namib and Namib Desert to test this forecast. • Correlations between historical climate values and vegetation change were analysed. • Contrary to expectations, woody plant cover has increased at most locations. • Past trends of increased rainfall and fog predict environmental futures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vegetation–climate relationships are often different at varying spatial scales, which is seldom taken into account in reconstructing past climate changes from fossil pollen spectra represent more local vegetation composition but using regional or extra-regional modern pollen–climate calibration set. In this paper, we employ 2620 surface pollen spectra and six pollen sequences from continental East Asia to reconstruct Holocene climate with modern analogue technique. A novel data set of vegetation sensitivity index (VSI) is introduced to examine vegetation–climate relationships in 0.5° search windows around the fossil sites (local) and in the tailored calibration sets (regional). Then, we compare them to the explanatory abilities of (reconstructed) climate variables on explaining the pollen variance in calibration sets and in the fossil pollen data sets using constrained ordination, cross-validation and significance test. By this procedure that we called local–regional–fossil comparison, we can better determine which variable reconstruction is valid and useful. In our cases, moisture variable reconstructions in temperate forest-steppe ecotone at the East Asian summer monsoon margin are reliable. Consistent Holocene moisture variations with a strong monsoon influence during 8.6–4.0 cal ka BP which can help us to better interpret human adaptations along the Great Wall. However, quantitative climate reconstructions at some sites are less reliable due to highly heterogeneous vegetation sensitivities surrounding the site, particularly for areas with complicated topographical contexts. We stress that vegetation sensitivities at local and regional scales both need to be investigated before conducting quantitative climate reconstruction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change adaptation strategies that aim to minimize harm and maximize benefits related to climate change impacts have mushroomed at all levels of government in recent years. While many studies have explored barriers that stand in the way of their implementation, the factors determining their potential to mainstream adaptation into various sectors are less clear. In the present paper, we aim to address this gap for two international, six national, and six local adaptation strategies. Based on document analyses and 35 semi‐structured interviews, the 14 case studies also explore in how far the factors facilitating climate change adaptation are similar across levels of government or level‐specific. Although located at three different levels of government, we find that the 14 adaptation strategies analyzed here represent "one‐size‐fits‐all governance arrangements" that are characterized by voluntariness and a lack institutionalization. Since adaptation strategies are relatively weak coordination hubs that are unable to force adaptation onto sectoral policy agendas, they rely mainly on sectoral self‐interest in adapting to climate change, largely determined by problem pressure. We conclude that one‐size‐fits‐all governance arrangements are rarely adequate responses to complex challenges, such as climate change. Although climate change adaptation depends more on framework conditions such as problem pressure than on administrative or governance features, the findings presented here can help to understand under what circumstances adaptation is likely to make progress. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How mountain hydrology at different elevations will respond to climate change is a challenging question of great importance to assessing changing water resources. Here, three North American Cordilleran snow-dominated basins—Wolf Creek, Yukon; Marmot Creek, Alberta; and Reynolds Mountain East, Idaho—each with good meteorological and hydrological records, were modeled using the physically based, spatially distributed Cold Regions Hydrological Model. Model performance was verified using field observations and found adequate for diagnostic analysis. To diagnose the effects of future climate, the monthly temperature and precipitation changes projected for the future by 11 regional climate models for the mid-twenty-first century were added to the observed meteorological time series. The modeled future was warmer and wetter, increasing the rainfall fraction of precipitation and shifting all three basins toward rainfall–runoff hydrology. This shift was largest at lower elevations and in the relatively warmer Reynolds Mountain East. In the warmer future, there was decreased blowing snow transport, snow interception and sublimation, peak snow accumulation, and melt rates, and increased evapotranspiration and the duration of the snow-free season. Annual runoff in these basins did not change despite precipitation increases, warming, and an increased prominence of rainfall over snowfall. Reduced snow sublimation offset reduced snowfall amounts, and increased evapotranspiration offset increased rainfall amounts. The hydrological uncertainty due to variation among climate models was greater than the predicted hydrological changes. While the results of this study can be used to assess the vulnerability and resiliency of water resources that are dependent on mountain snow, stakeholders and water managers must make decisions under considerable uncertainty, which this paper illustrates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change impacts can negatively affect tourism demand and, subsequently, local economies by disrupting access and altering physical conditions, including those from adaptation and recovery efforts. Research is needed that helps destinations become more climate ready, including studies of decision factors that influence trip-taking behaviors. This paper presents findings from a discrete choice experiment to determine how physical and economic changes could affect visitation behaviors to a vulnerable coastal destination, the Outer Banks region of North Carolina, USA. We embedded our experiment within an on-site visitor survey to reveal thresholds of negative changes to coastal attributes that tourists are willing to tolerate, and also examined tourists' willingness to substitute their future trips to the region. Transportation-related changes had the highest relative importance among the four selected attributes. The likelihood of three types of spatial substitution, spurred by not being able to access the destination, were consistently related to residency but less consistently related to place meanings, visitation history, and other demographic variables. Study results can inform climate change planning within coastal zones to minimize negative impacts to tourism demand, such as the need to develop creative revenue streams to maintain resilience in communities that rely on occupancy taxes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cities are major drivers of environmental change at all scales and are especially at risk from the ensuing effects, which include poor air quality, flooding and heat waves. Typically, these issues are studied on a city-by-city basis owing to the spatial complexity of built landscapes, local topography and emission patterns. However, to ensure knowledge sharing and to integrate local-scale processes with regional and global scale modelling initiatives, there is a pressing need for a world-wide database on cities that is suited for environmental studies. In this paper we present a European database that has a particular focus on characterising urbanised landscapes. It has been derived using tools and techniques developed as part of the World Urban Database and Access Portal Tools (WUDAPT) project, which has the goal of acquiring and disseminating climate-relevant information on cities worldwide. The European map is the first major step toward creating a global database on cities that can be integrated with existing topographic and natural land-cover databases to support modelling initiatives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change adaptation is increasingly concerned with how organisations develop capacity to adapt to uncertain futures. A participatory action research project conducted in Victoria, Australia, examined how health and social service organisations developed their organisational adaptive capacity through the use of adaptation decision-support tools. It can be challenging for any organisation to select and apply a decision-support tool, but this is particularly the case where resources and capacities are limited. For most organisations, climate change is only one of a complex set of dynamic stressors they must consider in meeting organisational goals. This paper shows that while decision-support tools can help co-generate knowledge and facilitate customised organisational adaptation processes, for them to be practically helpful for organisations with limited resources and capacities, intensive collaborative and discursive processes are needed to adjust such tools to fit specific organisational contexts and needs. Facilitators and participatory approaches that enable co-inquiry can play a critical role in supplementing scarce resources and initiating adaptation processes that go well beyond the scope and purpose of the decision-support tool used. Organisations working effectively with decision-support tools to adapt to climate change will need to feel ownership of them and have confidence in modifying them to suit their particular adaptation needs and organisational goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to its extension, geography and the presence of several under-developed or developing economies, the Central Asia domain of the Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) is one of the most vulnerable regions on Earth to the effects of climate changes. Reliable information on potential future changes with high spatial resolution acquire significant importance for the development of effective adaptation and mitigation strategies for the region. In this context, Regional Climate Models (RCMs) play a fundamental role. In this paper, the results of a set of sensitivity experiments with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM version 5.0, for the Central Asia CORDEX domain, are presented. Starting from a reference model setup, general model performance is evaluated for present-days, testing the effects of a set of singular physical parameterizations and their mutual interaction on the simulation of monthly and seasonal values of three variables that are important for impact studies: 2-meter temperature, precipitation and diurnal temperature range. The final goal of this study is two-fold: having a general overview of model performance and its uncertainties for the considered region and determining at the same time an optimal model configuration. Results show that the model presents remarkable deficiencies over different areas of the domain. The combined change of the albedo taking into consideration the ratio of forest fractions and the soil conductivity taking into account the ratio of liquid water and ice in the soil, allows to achieve the best improvements in model performance in terms of climatological means. Importantly, the model seems to be particularly sensitive to those parameterizations that deal with soil and surface features, and that could positively affect the repartition of incoming radiation. The results for the mean climate appear to be independent of the observational dataset used for evaluation and of the boundary data employed to force the simulations. On the other hand, due to the large uncertainties in the variability estimates from observations, the use of different boundaries and the model internal variability, it has not been possible to rank the different simulations according to their representation of the monthly variability. This work is the first ever sensitivity study of an RCM for the CORDEX Central Asia domain and its results are of fundamental importance for further model development and for future climate projections over the area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme precipitation can have significant adverse impacts on infrastructure and property, human health, and local economies. This paper examines recent changes in extreme precipitation in the northeast United States. Daily station data from 58 stations missing less than 5% of days for the years 1979–2014 from the U.S. Historical Climatology Network were used to analyze extreme precipitation, defined as the top 1% of days with precipitation. A statistically significant (95% confidence level) increasing trend of the threshold for the top 1% of extreme precipitation events was found (0.3 mm yr−1). This increasing trend was due to both an increase in the frequency of extreme events and the magnitude of extreme events. Rainfall events ≥ 150 mm (24-h accumulation) increased in frequency from 6 events between 1979 and 1996 to 25 events between 1997 and 2014, a 317% increase. The annual daily maximum precipitation, or the highest recorded precipitation amount in a given year, increased by an average of 1.6 mm yr−1, a total increase of 58.0 mm. Decreasing trends in extreme precipitation were observed east of Lake Erie during the warm season. Increasing trends in extreme precipitation were most robust during the fall months of September, October, and November, and particularly at locations further inland. The analysis showed that increases in events that were tropical in nature, or associated with tropical moisture, led to the observed increase in extreme precipitation during the fall months. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to test the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity of major crops, including rice, wheat and maize, in specific districts of Pakistan. This is done by observing year-to-year fluctuations in rainfall and temperature in relation to agricultural productivity for the period 1981-2009. For estimation purposes, the production function technique is used to evaluate the relationship between climate and yield variability. The results show that higher amount of rainfall has a negative and significant impact on the production of all crops including wheat, rice and maize. It may be because unexpected rainfall in Pakistan during monsoon season severely damages crops. This result is consistent with our expectation that high level of rainfall would decrease agricultural productivity and contribute to food insecurity in Pakistan. However, variation in temperature displays a stable trend and has significant positive impact on crop yield. This is contrary to our expectation that high temperature results in low agricultural productivity. This analysis is useful from the stand point of policy makers and analysts as it will help them develop policies relating to improvement in agricultural sector in the context of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we introduce a scalable machine learning approach accompanied by open-source software for identifying violent and peaceful forms of political protest participation using social media data. While violent political protests are statistically rare events, they often shape public perceptions of political and social movements. This is, in part, due to the extensive and disproportionate media coverage which violent protest participation receives relative to peaceful protest participation. In the past, when a small number of media conglomerates served as the primary information source for learning about political and social movements, viewership and advertiser demands encouraged news organizations to focus on violent forms of political protest participation. Consequently, much of our knowledge about political protest participation is derived from data collected about violent protests, while less is known about peaceful forms of protest. Since the early 2000s, the digital revolution shifted attention away from traditional news sources toward social media as a primary source of information about current events. This, along with developments in machine learning which allow us to collect and analyze data relevant to political participation, present us with unique opportunities to expand our knowledge of peaceful and violent forms of political protest participation through social media data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we present a simple model for assessing the willingness to pay for reductions in the risk associated with catastrophic climate change. The model is extremely tractable and applies to a multiregion world but with global externalities and has five key features: (i) Neither the occurrence nor the costs of a catastrophic event in any one year are precisely predictable; (ii) the probability of a catastrophe occurring in any one year increases as the levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere increase; (iii) greenhouse gases are a worldwide public bad with emissions from any one country or region increasing the risks for all; (iv) there is twosided irreversibility; if nothing is done and the problem proves serious, the climate, economic activity, and human life will suffer permanent damage, but if we spend large sums on countermeasures and the problem turns out to be minor or even nonexistent, we will have wasted resources unnecessarily; and (v) technological progress may yield partial or even complete solutions. The framework that we propose can give a sense of the quantitative significance of mitigation strategies. We illustrate these for a core set of parameter values. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Third Pole (TP) is experiencing rapid warming and is currently in its warmest period in the past 2,000 years. This paper reviews the latest development in multidisciplinary TP research associated with this warming. The rapid warming facilitates intense and broad glacier melt over most of the TP, although some glaciers in the northwest are advancing. By heating the atmosphere and reducing snow/ice albedo, aerosols also contribute to the glaciers melting. Glacier melt is accompanied by lake expansion and intensification of the water cycle over the TP. Precipitation has increased over the eastern and northwestern TP. Meanwhile, the TP is greening and most regions are experiencing advancing phenological trends, although over the southwest there is a spring phenological delay mainly in response to the recent decline in spring precipitation. Atmospheric and terrestrial thermal and dynamical processes over the TP affect the Asian monsoon at different scales. Recent evidence indicates substantial roles that mesoscale convective systems play in the TP's precipitation as well as an association between soil moisture anomalies in the TP and the Indian monsoon. Moreover, an increase in geohazard events has been associated with recent environmental changes, some of which have had catastrophic consequences caused by glacial lake outbursts and landslides. Active debris flows are growing in both frequency of occurrences and spatial scale. Meanwhile, new types of disasters, such as the twin ice avalanches in Ali in 2016, are now appearing in the region. Adaptation and mitigation measures should be taken to help societies' preparation for future environmental challenges. Some key issues for future TP studies are also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to test the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity of major crops, including rice, wheat and maize, in specific districts of Pakistan. This is done by observing year-to-year fluctuations in rainfall and temperature in relation to agricultural productivity for the period 1981-2009. For estimation purposes, the production function technique is used to evaluate the relationship between climate and yield variability. The results show that higher amount of rainfall has a negative and significant impact on the production of all crops including wheat, rice and maize. It may be because unexpected rainfall in Pakistan during monsoon season severely damages crops. This result is consistent with our expectation that high level of rainfall would decrease agricultural productivity and contribute to food insecurity in Pakistan. However, variation in temperature displays a stable trend and has significant positive impact on crop yield. This is contrary to our expectation that high temperature results in low agricultural productivity. This analysis is useful from the stand point of policy makers and analysts as it will help them develop policies relating to improvement in agricultural sector in the context of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate variability has played a vital role in the expansion and collapse of human civilizations across the World since ancient times. The Indus Civilization in South Asia has been the focus of investigations to archaeologists, historians, and anthropologists. But little attention was paid earlier to the role of climate variability in shaping the course of this well-established urban civilization. In this paper, we have presented a review of literature to understand various factors that affected the evolution of this cultural enigma. We suggest that the climate change in the region was a major controlling factor in determining the fate of Indus civilization settlements. The transformation of hunter-gatherers into pastoral community between 7000 and 3200 B.C.E., the establishment of village habitations along the Indus River and its tributaries in the Early Harappan phase, urbanization and shifting towards Ghaggar-Hakra rivers in the Mature Harappan phase, and final displacement towards Ganga-Yamuna doab (interfluve) region as village culture were largely modulated by the changing strength of the Indian summer monsoon and amount of precipitation in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For hundreds of years, human activity has modified the planet's surface through land-use practices. Policies and decisions on how land is managed and land-use changes due to replacement of forests by agricultural cropping and grazing lands affect greenhouse gas emissions. Agricultural management and agroforestry and the resulting changes to the land surface alter the global carbon cycle as well as the Earth's surface albedo, both of which in turn change the Earth's radiation balance. This makes land-use change the second anthropogenic source of climate change after fossil fuel burning. However, the scientific research community has so far not been able to identify the direction and magnitude of the global impact of land-use change. This paper examines the effects of net carbon flux from land-use change on temperature by applying Granger causality and error correction models. The results reveal a significant positive long-run equilibrium relationship between land-use change and the temperature series as well as an opposing short-term effect such that land-use change tends to lead to global warming; however, a rise in temperature causes a decline in land-use change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article presents a brief account of scientific research into solar geoengineering in India in the last decade. In recent years, solar geoengineering has been proposed as an option to ameliorate the detrimental impacts of climate change in case the required emissions reductions do not take place rapidly. Hundreds of research papers have been published in the last decade by both natural and social scientists on the feasibility, effectiveness, cost, and risks, and the ethical, legal, social, political, and governance dimensions of geoengineering. Most of this research is conducted in the developed world, and very little research or discussion has taken place in the global South. However, it has been argued in several forums that the developing world should have a central role in solar-geoengineering research, discussion, and evaluation for political and moral reasons. We present here a brief account of the Indian scientific research into solar geoengineering. Climate modeling constitutes the major component of this geoengineering-relevant climate science research. The recent funding initiative by the Department of Science and Technology—the main funding agency for scientific research in India—in support of geoengineering modeling research and its efforts to bring natural, social, and political scientists together for an evaluation of solar geoengineering at meetings are also discussed. Finally, the directions for future scientific research into geoengineering in India are a lso discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The possibility of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) engaging in climate change is not new to academic discourse. Since at least 1992 the UNSC has been examined as a means by which to provide renewed impetus to the climate change response agenda. Despite this, there has been very little progress in terms of UNSC engagement. One reason for this, according to Conca et al, is that when states and other interested parties argue for climate change intervention they do so with a lack of clarity as to what form it should take and what benefits might follow. This paper intends to address this particular aspect of the debate and propose reasons as to why the UNSC should engage, how it could engage, and what benefit it could bring to the climate change regime. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate friendly technologies contribute to tackling global climate crisis and the dynamic transfer of these technologies is important to achieve universal climate actions. The UNFCCC, and its recent Paris Agreement, have introduced international assistance to promote climate related-technology transfer. They call for collaborative actions from both technology supplier and demander sides in order to enable environments for a meaningful and effective technology transfer. According to the UNFCCC, the international technology assistance is unlikely to work in a desired way with the absence of indigenous enabling environments. Therefore, it is crucial to identify, assess and overcome potential barriers potentially confronted by host countries in their acquisition of climate technologies, which helps prepare these countries for climate resilience economy and sustainable development. This paper attempts to provide a deep and comprehensive analysis on enabling policy/law environments in host countries and uses Asian countries as examples in most occasions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The European Space Agency's Climate Change Initiative for Soil Moisture (ESA CCI SM) merging algorithm generates consistent quality-controlled long-term (1978–2018) climate data records for soil moisture, which serves thousands of scientists and data users worldwide. It harmonises and merges soil moisture retrievals from multiple satellites into (i) an active-microwave-based-only product, (ii) a passive-microwave-based-only product and (iii) a combined active–passive product, which are sampled to daily global images on a 0.25∘ regular grid. Since its first release in 2012 the algorithm has undergone substantial improvements which have so far not been thoroughly reported in the scientific literature. This paper fills this gap by reviewing and discussing the science behind the three major ESA CCI SM merging algorithms, versions 2 (https://doi.org/10.5285/3729b3fbbb434930bf65d82f9b00111c; Wagner et al., 2018), 3 (https://doi.org/10.5285/b810601740bd4848b0d7965e6d83d26c; Dorigo et al., 2018) and 4 (https://doi.org/10.5285/dce27a397eaf47e797050c220972ca0e; Dorigo et al., 2019), and provides an outlook on the expected improvements planned for the next algorithm, version 5. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lightning is one of the leading causes of weather-related fatalities worldwide and also has a strong impact on atmospheric chemistry (i.e., NOx production). Lightning can also lead to power system breakdowns, ignite forest fires, damage wind turbine and lead to perturbation of transportation, in particular to aviation. Thus, knowing when, where lightning strike and which atmospheric environments are more frequently associated with lightning is important. Furthermore, given the increase in the population density in recent decades (i.e., more people are exposed to lightning) and the increased urbanization (i.e., cities are getting larger and thus are more exposed to lightning) is essential to understand the spatial and temporal distribution of storm producing lightning and their environments in the current climate and their changes in the past and coming decades. To address these issues, in this study we analyze the changes in the number of days with atmospheric conditions leading to lightning over southeastern Europe. Here we consider the non-inductive charging mechanism as the main mechanism for cloud electrification. We search for ingredients supporting for this cloud electrification mechanism using a series of parameters (e.g., convective available potential energy, total precipitable water, heights of various isotherms) obtained from vertical profiles collected from radiosonde sites over southeastern Europe (e.g., Romania, Hungary, Bulgaria). This paper will present the changes between 1980 and 2018 in the number of days with condition supporting the occurrence of lightning in urban areas from southeastern Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the shaping of Bangladesh's southern coastal region, often framed as the most climate vulnerable place in the world, as a zone of climate crisis. As rising waters threaten communities inhabiting the low‐lying coastal islands scattered across the deltaic plain, many within the government and donor community have identified shrimp aquaculture as a principal adaptation strategy. Shrimp aquaculture is integral to the dynamics of what I call anticipatory ruination, a discursive and material process of social and ecological destruction in anticipation of real or perceived threats. I elaborate anticipatory ruination as a process that both responds to and produces Bangladesh's climate crisis. I use this concept to explore not only the dynamics taking place in Bangladesh's delta region, but also the ways in which climate crisis is constituted more broadly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes the assumptions, equations, and procedures of the RheaG weather generator algorithm (WGA). RheaG was conceived for the generation of robust daily meteorological time series, whether in static or transient climate conditions. Here we analyze its performance in four Iberian locations—Bilbao, Barcelona, Madrid, and Sevilla—with differentiated climate characteristics. To validate the RheaG WGA, we compared observed and generated meteorological time series' statistical properties of precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature for all four locations. We also compared observed and simulated rain events spell length probabilities in all four locations. Finally, RheaG includes two weather generation procedures: one in which monthly mean values for meteorological variables are unconstrained and one in which they are constrained according to a predefined baseline climate variability. Here, we compare the two weather generation procedures included in RheaG using the observed data from Barcelona. Our results present a high agreement in the statistical properties and the rain spell length probabilities between observed and generated meteorological time series. Our results show that RheaG accurately reproduces seasonal patterns of the observed meteorological time series for all four locations, and it is even able to differentiate two climatic seasons in Bilbao that are also present in the observed data. We find a trade-off between generation procedures in which the unconstrained procedure better reproduces the variability of monthly and yearly precipitation than the constrained one, but the constrained procedure is able to keep the same climatic signal across meteorological time series. Thus, the first procedure is more accurate, but the latter is able to maintain spatial autocorrelation among generated meteorological time series. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines search and rescue and backcountry medical response constraints in the Canadian Arctic and potential for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) to aid in response and preparedness. Semi-structured interviews (n = 18) were conducted with search and rescue responders, Elders, and emergency management officials to collect data on current emergency response and potential for UAV use. UAV test flights (n = 17) were undertaken with community members. We analyzed five years of weather data to examine UAV flight suitability. Numerous challenges face Arctic search and rescue and backcountry emergency response. Changing social and environmental conditions were described as increasing vulnerability to backcountry emergencies. Responders desired additional first aid and emergency training. Legal and weather restrictions were found to limit where, when and who could fly UAVs. UAVs were demonstrated to have potential benefits for hazard monitoring but not for SAR or medical response due to legal restrictions, weather margins, and local capacity. We find that communities are ill-prepared for ongoing SAR demands, let alone a larger disaster. There are numerous limitations to the use of consumer UAVs by Arctic communities. Prevention of backcountry medical emergencies, building resilience to disasters, and first responder training should be prioritized over introducing UAVs to the response system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Artificial neural networks are widely applied for different forecasting applications including rainfall forecasting. The climate input features and parameters for neural networks highly affect the overall performance of the prediction model. Therefore, an appropriate approach for the selection of features and parameters is needed. In this paper, a novel approach is proposed to select the input features and neural network parameters. A hybrid genetic algorithm that combines natural reproduction and particle swarm optimization characteristics was developed to select the best input features and network parameters for each month. The developed model was compared against alternative climate and network parameters feature selection model, climate feature selection model and climatology where a better accuracy was recorded with the proposed model. The skill score against the three alternative climate models was 17.41, 21.68 and 32.12%, respectively. The aggregated time series of the proposed model showed a root-mean-square error of 141.67 mm for a location with 3553.00 mm annual average. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Holocene climate variability in the Mediterranean Basin is often cited as a potential driver of societal change, but the mechanisms of this putative influence are generally little explored. In this paper we integrate two tools–agro-ecosystem modeling of potential agricultural yields and spatial analysis of archaeological settlement pattern data–in order to examine the human consequences of past climatic changes. Focusing on a case study in Provence (France), we adapt an agro-ecosystem model to the modeling of potential agricultural productivity during the Holocene. Calibrating this model for past crops and agricultural practices and using a downscaling approach to produce high spatiotemporal resolution paleoclimate data from a Mediterranean Holocene climate reconstruction, we estimate realistic potential agricultural yields under past climatic conditions. These serve as the basis for spatial analysis of archaeological settlement patterns, in which we examine the changing relationship over time between agricultural productivity and settlement location. Using potential agricultural productivity (PAgP) as a measure of the human consequences of climate changes, we focus on the relative magnitudes of 1) climate-driven shifts in PAgP and 2) the potential increases in productivity realizable through agricultural intensification. Together these offer a means of assessing the scale and mechanisms of the vulnerability and resilience of Holocene inhabitants of Provence to climate change. Our results suggest that settlement patterns were closely tied to PAgP throughout most of the Holocene, with the notable exception of the period from the Middle Bronze Age through the Early Iron Age. This pattern does not appear to be linked to any climatically-driven changes in PAgP, and conversely the most salient changes in PAgP during the Holocene cannot be clearly linked to any changes in settlement pattern. We argue that this constitutes evidence that vulnerability and resilience to climate change are strongly dependent on societal variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper offers a brief assessment of climate change and associated impact in Poland, based on selected results of the Polish-Norwegian CHASE-PL project. Impacts are examined in selected sectors, such as water resources, natural hazard risk reduction, environment, agriculture and health. Results of change detection in long time series of observed climate and climate impact variables in Poland are presented. Also, projections of climate variability and change are provided for time horizons of 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 for two emission scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in comparison with control period, 1971-2000. Based on climate projections, examination of future impacts on sectors is also carried out. Selected uncertainty issues relevant to observations, understanding and projections are tackled as well. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While the 2016 Paris Agreement is in many ways an important attainment with the potential to represent a milestone in humanity’s path towards sustainable development, and avoid thus a potential calamitous and destructive future, the achievement of the goals set in the agreement is a long way off. This paper investigates one of the most important worldwide hurdles frustrating the implementation of the policies required to limit environmental degradation and limit pollution, namely the still insufficient public support for the necessary environmental policies and their associated cost. Using a comparative database generated through an experimental study on tax compliance and policy preferences run in five countries (USA, UK, Italy, Sweden and Romania), I will evaluate five explanatory models of the degree to which people support environmentally friendly policies by accepting higher tax burdens and increased collective solidarity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper compares extreme value statistics of daily maximum 10 m wind speed in winter simulated by the regional climate model COSMO‐CLM at a horizontal resolution of 15 km (C15) with the reanalyses ERA‐Interim and Arctic System reanalysis (ASR version 1 and 2) and with a satellite data set (CCMPv2). Our C15 simulation (1979/1980–2015/2016, November–April) is thereby the longest high‐resolution simulation available for the Arctic. The results show that the extreme wind speeds tend to increase over the ocean with increasing the horizontal model resolution. A horizontal resolution of ≤15 km is required to sufficiently capture all extreme wind characteristics, in particular for the tip jets and barrier winds over the Irminger Sea and in the Denmark Strait, and for the low‐level jets in the Nares Strait. Of almost equal importance are physical parameterizations of surface fluxes and of turbulence. Capturing extreme wind characteristics has a direct effect on climate relevant air–ice–ocean interactions, such as triggering open‐ocean deep convection, polynya dynamics, or on the sea ice and freshwater balance of the Arctic. State‐of‐the‐art global climate models and reanalyses (e.g., ERA‐Interim) underestimate the extreme near‐surface wind speeds in the Arctic and around Greenland. Regional climate models, for example, ASR/WRF or COSMO‐CLM, resolve the mesoscale wind systems that frequently produce extreme winds, which we estimated i.a. as 10‐year return levels (see the figure). Capturing extreme wind characteristics has a direct effect on climate relevant air–ice–ocean interactions, such as triggering open‐ocean deep convection, polynya dynamics, or on the sea ice and freshwater balance of the Arctic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Knowledge about the environmental impact of alcohol is limited and as an effect alcohol is often excluded from environmental studies of diets or included in incomplete ways. This paper describes the climate impact of beer, wine and liquor by using life cycle assessment. The climate impact is quantified per litre of specific alcoholic beverages and per total amount of alcohol consumed based on self-reported data of 50 000 individuals from 2009 within two population-based cohorts in Sweden. The results show that alcoholic beverages generate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the range of 0.73–2.38 kg carbon dioxide equivalents (CO 2 e) per litre. Alcohol consumption in the population studied generates on average 52 kg CO 2 e per person and year. Within the 10% of the population with the highest intake of alcohol GHG emissions are up to 202 kg CO 2 e per person and year. Consumption of wine is responsible for the largest share of GHG emissions from alcoholic beverages (61%) followed by beer (33%), while liquor and strong wine account for a smaller share (6%). Alcohol consumption among men generates 90% higher GHG emissions than among women. Alcohol consumption and in consequence alcohol-related emissions are decreasing with increasing age of men and women. Our results indicate that alcohol consumption in Swedish men and women is responsible for an average of 3% of total diet-related GHG emissions and in sub-populations with the highest consumption up to 6–11%. Limiting alcohol could be an effective option to reduce the climate impact of diets, especially among men. Graphical abstract Image 1 Highlights • Beer, wine and spirits generate 0.73–2.38 kg of CO 2 equivalents per litre. • Alcohol intake generated 52 kg of CO 2 equivalents per person and year. • Alcohol intake among men generates 90% higher GHG emissions than among women. • GHG emissions from alcohol intake decrease with increasing age. • Alcohol intake in Sweden is responsible for about 3% of dietary GHG emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Improved access to energy in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has the potential to alleviate poverty, promote industrialisation, facilitate gender equality and reduce the region's vulnerability to climate change. Consequently, the current low rates of electrification in many SSA countries has been identified as the most pressing obstacle to economic growth, more important than access to finance, red tape or corruption. Despite the presence of numerous initiatives for promoting energy access in Africa, and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) calling for universal access to energy by 2030, Africa might still not be able to achieve universal energy access by 2030. Through an analysis of case studies, research articles, policy briefs and project reports this paper sought to investigate the policies, strategies and innovations that could help expedite SSA's progress towards universal energy access before 2030. This investigation revealed that an emphasis on rural electrification and linking energy access to agriculture and irrigation development as the case was in Viet Nam, could successfully diversify African economies and mitigate the negative perceptions about Africa's growth prospects and energy sectors that global economic shocks instigate. Additionally, the operations of Power Africa, the Sustainable Energy for All (SE4All) Initiative and the China South-South Climate Cooperation Fund can either significantly improve the financing and regulatory frameworks for SSA's energy sectors or constrain economic development in SSA by promoting rent-seeking and corruption which culminates into a ‘climate finance curse’. Consequently, these initiatives can only facilitate inclusive growth as envisioned in the SDGs if SSA develops or strengthens institutions to coordinate and harmonise investments and aid from such autonomous diverse sources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Climate change is affecting food systems globally, with implications for food security, nutrition, and the health of human populations. There are limited data characterizing the current and future consequences of climate change on local food security for populations already experiencing poor nutritional indicators. Indigenous Amazonian populations have a high reported prevalence of nutritional deficiencies. This paper characterizes the food system of the Shawi of the Peruvian Amazon, climatic and non-climatic drivers of their food security vulnerability to climate change, and identifies potential maladaptation trajectories. Methods and findings: Semi-structured interviews with key informants (n = 24), three photovoice workshops (n = 17 individuals), transect walks (n = 2), a food calendar exercise, and two community dissemination meetings (n = 30 individuals), were conducted within two Shawi communities in Balsapuerto District in the Peruvian Loreto region between June and September of 2014. The Shawi food system was based on three main food sub-systems (forest, farming and externally-sourced). Shawi reported collective, gendered, and emotional notions related to their food system activities. Climatic and non-climatic drivers of food security vulnerability among Shawi participants acted at proximal and distal levels, and mutually reinforced key maladaptation trajectories, including: 1) a growing population and natural resource degradation coupled with limited opportunities to increase incomes, and 2) a desire for education and deforestation reinforced by governmental social and food interventions. Conclusion: A series of maladaptive trajectories have the potential to increase social and nutritional inequities for the Shawi. Transformational food security adaptation should include consideration of Indigenous perceptions and priorities, and should be part of Peruvian food and socioeconomic development policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to understand the behavior of the glaciers, their mass balance should be studied. The loss of water produced by melting, known as glacier discharge, is one of the components of this mass balance. In this paper, a vine copula structure is proposed to model the multivariate and nonlinear dependence among the glacier discharge and other related meteorological variables such as temperature, humidity, solar radiation and precipitation. The multivariate distribution of these variables is expressed as a mixture of four components according to the presence or not of positive discharge and/or positive precipitation. Then, each of the four subgroups is modelled with a vine copula. The conditional probability of zero discharge for given meteorological conditions is obtained from the proposed joint distribution. Moreover, the structure of the vine copula allows us to derive the conditional distribution of the glacier discharge for the given meteorological conditions. Three different prediction methods for the values of the discharge are used and compared. The proposed methodology is applied to a large database collected since 2002 by the GLACKMA association from a measurement station located in the King George Island in the Antarctica. Seasonal effects are included by using different parameters for each season. We have found that the proposed vine copula model outperforms a previous work where we only used the temperature to predict the glacier discharge using a time-varying bivariate copula. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, numerous studies have investigated the relationship of extreme precipitation intensities with temperature derived from a binning method using present‐day weather data. The aim of this approach is that these dependencies, or so‐called apparent scaling rates, provide insights on how precipitation extremes could evolve in the future climate. In a recent paper, Bao et al. showed that there is a large discrepancy between the present‐day apparent scaling rates—showing a negative dependency of daily rainfall extremes on temperature for Darwin—and the climate change response showing a substantial increase in daily rainfall extremes. Their results provide compelling evidence that it may not be straightforward to predict the climate change response from the temperature scaling. We agree with this statement, but disagree with the physical explanation put forward in that study and think that moisture limitations are the most likely cause. Therefore, we advocate the use of dew point temperatures in scaling studies as a much more direct proxy of the absolute humidity of the air in which precipitation extremes develop, which we think is physically more consistent with the underlying mechanism causing the increase in precipitation extremes with global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we analyse the relationship between the mean and extreme precipitation for five stations in Hungary and the circulation types at the 500 hPa level, for a 52‐year period, 1958–2010. We used daily rainfall data for each station and a calendar of the daily circulation types at the 500 hPa geopotential height for Hungary based on an automatic classification scheme. A trend analysis showed that, in general, the mean and extreme precipitation rarely exhibit significant trends, similarly to previous studies. The only exception was found for the number of annual and summer rainy days in Budapest with significant negative trends (p = .05), as well as the number of days with rainfall amounts greater than the 95% probability level for Debrecen with a significant positive trend. It was found that the circulation types that are mainly responsible for the largest precipitation amounts overall show (in some cases significant) negative trends, as well as the precipitation amounts that are associated with them (Cwsw, Cse, Cwnw). In most cases, the circulation types that are prevailing during the extreme precipitation events are associated with western or almost‐western atmospheric circulations (Cwsw, Ase) and Mediterranean‐ or Atlantic‐origin depressions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies have reported that much of the surface wind speed (SWS) over the mid‐latitudes of the northern hemisphere has declined. However, very few studies have investigated the relatively recent phenomenon of wind recovery. Based on 68 wind data series, this paper examines changes in wind speed in northwest China between 1969 and 2015. In 1992, following a decade of sharply decreasing at a rate of 0.036 m s−1 a−1 (p < .05), the SWS began to significant increase at a rate of 0.004 m s−1 a−1. The specific reasons for this increase are as follows: (a) The decrease in SWS during the pre‐1992 slowdown period is the result of declining wind speeds in spring and summer, whereas increases in wind speed during the post‐1992 recovery period are caused by increased wind in winter. (b) The number of days featuring strongly varying wind speeds has changed. Specifically, the number of days above 2 m s−1 all show a significant decreasing trend from 1969 to 1992, whereas the number of days of 1–3 m s−1 shows a significant upward trend from 1993 to 2015. (c) Stations located between 1,000 and 1,500 m.a.s.l. (meter above sea level) are more sensitive to climate change than those at other altitudes, which shows the biggest decline (increase) trend during wind speed slowdown (recovery) period. These stations could potentially act as climatic indicators to predict future wind speed changes. SWS in northwest China have been affected by changes both in large‐scale atmospheric circulation and in regional warming. Surface pressure gradient variations between high‐ and low‐latitude regions may be important contributors to wind speed changes under asymmetric warming. However, urbanization is only moderately responsible for trend changes in SWS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract This paper first introduced a numerical carbonation model (NCM) for fatigue-damaged concrete. Then, based on the NCM, a simplified carbonation model (SCM) for fatigue-damaged concrete was established, comprised of a non-damaged concrete contribution term and a fatigue damage contribution term, through Monte Carlo simulations. Both the NCM and SCM were verified by experimental results reported in the literature. Subsequently, an incremental method was proposed to consider the time-variant fatigue damage and exposure conditions. Finally, a case study was conducted, which determined that cumulating fatigue damage could have a big influence on carbonation depth evolution. Meanwhile, differences in the cumulating fatigue damage could lead to noticeable differences in carbonation depth evolution among different points in the same concrete bridge. Moreover, drastic increases of CO 2 concentration and temperature could induce relationships of carbonation depths with square roots of service times to remarkably deviate from the proportional laws widely accepted under a time-invariant environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although substantial attention has focused on efforts by the new Administration to block environmental policies, climate politics have been contentious in the US since well before the election of Donald Trump. In this paper, we extend previous work on empirical examinations of echo chambers in US climate politics using new data collected on the federal climate policy network in summer 2016. We test for the similarity and differences at two points in time in homophily and echo chambers using Exponential Random Graph Models (ERGM) to compare new findings from 2016 to previous work on data from 2010. We show that echo chambers continue to play a significant role in the network of information exchange among policy elites working on the issue of climate change. In contrast to previous findings where echo chambers centered on a binding international commitment to emission reductions, we find that the pre-existing echo chambers have almost completely disappeared and new structures have formed around one of the main components of the Obama Administration’s national climate policy: the Clean Power Plan. These results provide empirical evidence that science communication and policymaking at the elite level shift in relation to the policy instruments under consideration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To better anticipate potential impacts of climate change, diverse information about the future is required, including climate, society and economy, and adaptation and mitigation. To address this need, a global RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways), SSP (Shared Socio-economic Pathways), and SPA (Shared climate Policy Assumptions) (RCP–SSP–SPA) scenario framework has been developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR5). Application of this full global framework at sub-national scales introduces two key challenges: added complexity in capturing the multiple dimensions of change, and issues of scale. Perhaps for this reason, there are few such applications of this new framework. Here, we present an integrated multi-scale hybrid scenario approach that combines both expert-based and participatory methods. The framework has been developed and applied within the DECCMA 1 1 DECCMA ( DEltas , vulnerability and Climate Change: Migration and Adaptation ) project is part of the Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA), with financial support from the UK Government's Department for International Development (DFID) and the International Development Research Centre (IDRC), Canada. For more information, visit the project website: http://www.geodata.soton.ac.uk/deccma/ . project with the purpose of exploring migration and adaptation in three deltas across West Africa and South Asia: (i) the Volta delta (Ghana), (ii) the Mahanadi delta (India), and (iii) the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta (Bangladesh/India). Using a climate scenario that encompasses a wide range of impacts (RCP8.5) combined with three SSP-based socio-economic scenarios (SSP2, SSP3, SSP5), we generate highly divergent and challenging scenario contexts across multiple scales against which robustness of the human and natural systems within the deltas are tested. In addition, we consider four distinct adaptation policy trajectories: Minimum intervention , Economic capacity expansion , System efficiency enhancement , and System restructuring , which describe alternative future bundles of adaptation actions/measures under different socio-economic trajectories. The paper highlights the importance of multi-scale (combined top-down and bottom-up) and participatory (joint expert-stakeholder) scenario methods for addressing uncertainty in adaptation decision-making. The framework facilitates improved integrated assessments of the potential impacts and plausible adaptation policy choices (including migration) under uncertain future changing conditions. The concept, methods, and processes presented are transferable to other sub-national socio-ecological settings with multi-scale challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to adapt civil infrastructure to changing climate conditions, quantifiable and deep uncertainties must be integrated into the decision-making process. The quantifiable uncertainties, i.e. variability for which a likelihood can be defined, are typically integrated into the management process by considering the reliability or risk level of a structure. The deep uncertainties, i.e. the variability for which a likelihood cannot be defined, are beginning to be integrated in the decision making process as a few robust decision making procedures have been proposed. However, the deep uncertainty associated with the multiple feasible future climate scenarios also provokes a “wait and see” mentality for some decision makers, causing the flexibility of a strategy to be valued. This paper introduces the Gain-Loss Ratio (GLR) as a metric that systematically quantifies what may be gained by postponing adaptation while also considering what is lost with the delay. Additionally, bi-objective optimization models for optimizing bridge adaptation strategies under deep uncertainties are proposed; the advantages and disadvantages of each are highlighted as they pertain to the management of a typical riverine bridge. Two rivers are considered that have comparable climate change trends as those predicted for the Columbia and Mississippi Rivers. It is demonstrated that the desire for flexibility may be justified for certain locations, but may be detrimental in others. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Information on the response of vegetation to different environmental drivers, including rainfall, forms a critical input to ecosystem models. Currently, such models are run based on parameters that, in some cases, are either assumed or lack supporting evidence (e.g., that vegetation growth across Africa is rainfall‐driven). A limited number of studies have reported that the onset of rain across Africa does not fully explain the onset of vegetation growth, for example, drawing on the observation of prerain flush effects in some parts of Africa. The spatial extent of this prerain green‐up effect, however, remains unknown, leaving a large gap in our understanding that may bias ecosystem modelling. This paper provides the most comprehensive spatial assessment to‐date of the magnitude and frequency of the different patterns of phenology response to rainfall across Africa and for different vegetation types. To define the relations between phenology and rainfall, we investigated the spatial variation in the difference, in number of days, between the start of rainy season (SRS) and start of vegetation growing season (SOS); and between the end of rainy season (ERS) and end of vegetation growing season (EOS). We reveal a much more extensive spread of prerain green‐up over Africa than previously reported, with prerain green‐up being the norm rather than the exception. We also show the relative sparsity of postrain green‐up, confined largely to the Sudano‐Sahel region. While the prerain green‐up phenomenon is well documented, its large spatial extent was not anticipated. Our results, thus, contrast with the widely held view that rainfall drives the onset and end of the vegetation growing season across Africa. Our findings point to a much more nuanced role of rainfall in Africa's vegetation growth cycle than previously thought, specifically as one of a set of several drivers, with important implications for ecosystem modelling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Growing globalisation and climate change are challenging the sustainability of our societies. It is now clear that climate change and its devastating impacts cannot be resolved by new technology or governance alone. They require a broader, cultural shift. As a result, the role of human beings' ‘inner dimensions’ and related transformations is attracting increased attention from researchers. Recent advances in neuroscience suggest for instance that mindfulness can open new pathways towards sustainability. However, the role of mindfulness in climate adaptation has been largely ignored. This paper is the first exploratory empirical investigation into linking individuals' intrinsic mindfulness (as opposed to outside mindfulness interventions) to pro- and reactive climate adaptation. Based on a survey of citizens at risk from severe climate events, we explore if, and how individual mindfulness is correlated with climate adaptation at different scales. The results show that individual mindfulness coincides with higher motivation to take climate adaptation actions or to support them, especially actions that are ‘other-focused’ or support pro-environmental behaviour. Mindfulness may also corroborate the acknowledgement of climate change and associated risk perception, and it may steer people away from fatalistic attitudes. We conclude with a call for more research into the relationship between human beings' inner dimensions and climate adaptation in the wider public domain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]