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In this paper, we investigate changes in the wave climate of the west-European shelf seas under global warming scenarios. In particular, climate change wind fields corresponding to the present (control) time-slice 1961-2000 and the future (scenario) time-slice 2061-2100 are used to drive a wave generation model to produce equivalent control and scenario wave climate. Yearly and seasonal statistics of the scenario wave climates are compared individually to the corresponding control wave climate to identify relative changes of statistical significance between present and future extreme and prevailing wave heights. Using global, regional and linked global-regional wind forcing over a set of nested computational domains, this paper further demonstrates the sensitivity of the results to the resolution and coverage of the forcing. It suggests that the use of combined forcing from linked global and regional climate models of typical resolution and coverage is a good option for the investigation of relative wave changes in the region of interest of this study. Coarse resolution global forcing alone leads to very similar results over regions that are highly exposed to the Atlantic Ocean. In contrast, fine resolution regional forcing alone is shown to be insufficient for exploring wave climate changes over the western European waters because of its limited coverage. Results obtained with the combined global-regional wind forcing showed some consistency between scenarios. In general, it was shown that mean and extreme wave heights will increase in the future only in winter and only in the southwest of UK and west of France, north of about 44-45° N. Otherwise, wave heights are projected to decrease, especially in summer. Nevertheless, this decrease is dominated by local wind waves whilst swell is found to increase. Only in spring do both swell and local wind waves decrease in average height. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper investigates the effect of future sea-level rise (SLR) on the tides of the northwest European Continental Shelf. The European shelf tide is dominated by semidiurnal constituents. This study therefore focuses primarily on the changes in the M2 tidal constituent and the spring and neap tidal conditions. The validated operational Dutch Continental Shelf Model is run for the present day sea-level as well as 2 and 10m SLR scenarios. The M2 tidal amplitude responds to SLR in a spatially non-uniform manner, with substantial amplitude increases and decreases in both scenarios. The M2 tidal response is non-linear between 2 and 10m with respect to SLR, particularly in the North Sea. Under the 2m SLR scenario the M2 constituent is particularly responsive in the resonant areas of the Bristol Channel and Gulf of St. Malo (with large amplitude decreases) and in the southeastern German Bight and Dutch Wadden Sea (with large amplitude increases). Changes in the spring tide are generally greater still than those in the M2 or neap tides. With 2m SLR the spring tidal range increases up to 35cm at Cuxhaven and decreases up to −49cm at St. Malo. Additionally the changes in the shallow water tides are larger than expected. With SLR the depth, wave speed and wave length (tidal resonance characteristics) are increased causing changes in near resonant areas. In expansive shallow areas SLR causes reduced energy dissipation by bottom friction. Combined these mechanisms result in the migration of the amphidromes and complex patterns of non-linear change in the tide with SLR. Despite the significant uncertainty associated with the rate of SLR over the next century, substantial alterations to tidal characteristics can be expected under a high end SLR scenario. Contrary to existing studies this paper highlights the importance of considering the modification of the tides by future SLR. These substantial future changes in the tides could have wide reaching implications; including for example, correctly calculating design level requirements for flood defences, the availability of tidal renewable energy and dredging requirements. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

From the Sellevollmyra bog at Andøya, northern Norway, a 440-cm long peat core covering the last c. 7000 calendar years was examined for humification, loss-on-ignition, microfossils, macrofossils and tephra. The age model was based on a Bayesian wiggle-match of 35 14C dates and two historically anchored tephra layers. Based on changes in lithology and biostratigraphical climate proxies, several climatic changes were identified (periods of the most fundamental changes in italics): 6410-6380, 6230-6050, 5730-5640, 5470-5430, 5340-5310, 5270-5100, 4790-4710, 4890-4820, 4380-4320, 4220-4120, 4000-3810, 3610-3580, 3370-3340 (regionally 2850-2750; in Sellevollmyra a hiatus between 2960-2520), 2330-2220, 1950, 1530-1450, 1150-840, 730? and c. 600? cal. yr BP. Most of these climate changes are known from other investigations of different palaeoclimate proxies in northern and middle Europe. Some volcanic eruptions seemingly coincide with vegetation changes recorded in the peat, e.g. about 5760 cal. yr BP; however, the known climatic deterioration at the time of the Hekla-4 tephra layer started some decades before the eruption event. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]