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The 2015 Paris climate change negotiations represents the most ambitious worldwide effort to date to combat climate change. As the largest energy consumer and carbon emitter, China pledges 60–65% cut in carbon intensity below 2005 levels by 2030. To accelerate China's climate efforts, China has also committed to cap its primary energy use at 4.8 billion tons of coal equivalent in 2020. This paper proposes an equitable and efficient scheme to disaggregate this national goal among provinces. A three-step disaggregation procedure is proposed which takes into account the initial allocation, national redistribution and inter-provincial adjustment. First, this study allocates the incremental energy quota, taking 2010 as the base year. Second, part of the energy quota is set aside by the central government for redistribution purposes, while an incremental energy quota index comprising equity and efficiency criteria is used for initial allocation among provinces. Finally, historical efforts and inter-provincial energy flows are considered for inter-provincial adjustment. This disaggregation scheme is flexible and can be easily extended to allocation and management of other resource and environmental targets. The empirical findings can assist decision-makers in identifying which provinces are likely to over-consume the energy quota relative to the proposed allocation and which provinces are likely to perform better in energy conservation. Moreover, the results show that the energy cap set for 2020 is unachievable without further action. Market-based instruments, such as an energy allowance trading market, are strongly recommended to achieve the energy use target in an equitable and cost-effective manner. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Objective] The research aimed to study relation between energy consumption and climate change in China. [Method] Climate change characteristics from 1951 to 2009 in China were summarized. Economic and social developments in China in recent 50 years were analyzed from production and consumption amounts of the energy,energy source composition and energy consumption of the GDP(ten-thousand yuan). Influences of the energy consumption and economic development on climate change were discussed. [Result] Annual average temperature of China increased obviously from 1951 to 2009,and regional difference was distinct. Increasing trend of the temperature in the north of 35° N was bigger than that in the south. Increasing trend of the temperature in northeast China and Inner Mongolia reached 0. 04 °C /a. The average temperature from 1981 to 2009 was higher than that from 1951 to 1980,and the biggest difference value was more than 2. 0 °C. Mutation of Chinese energy production and consumption happened in 1985,but average temperature of China had an obvious mutation in 1989,showing temperature mutation lagged behind energy production and consumption mutation. Energy consumption of the GDP(ten-thousand yuan) decreased evidently from 1978 to 1997. Beginning from 1998,the decreasing pace slowed down markedly,and there was a rebound in 2003. Chinese new energy amount was increasing year by year. Because the total energy consumption amount was also increasing,new energy proportion had been maintained about one quarter. The energy consumption increasing model with energy consumption coefficient and the model without energy consumption coefficient were set up in this paper. It was found that Chinese energy structure changed a little after considering energy consumption coefficient. Proportion of the coal decreased,while proportions of the oil,natural gas and electric power increased. Temperature changing trend was consistent with that of the economic development and energy consumption. Change trend of the average temperature basically presented good positive correlation with effective energy consumption amount,and the maximum correlation coefficient was 80%. [Conclusion] The research proved the importance of developing clean efficient energy and carrying out low-carbon economy to relieve climate change of China. It was urgent to carry out low-carbon economy and transform economic growth manner. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]