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Highlights • An integrated approach is developed for environmental sustainability. • Climate variability has significant impacts on local environmental sustainability. • Rio Grande Basin is sustainable under current climate conditions. • Rio Grande Basin will become less sustainable in the late 21st century. Abstract Extreme weather events have been affecting local environmental sustainability. Previous literature in this field evaluates environmental sustainability based mainly on past and current resource consumption and availability, however, knowledge about the status and potential changes of environmental sustainability under future climate extremes is missing. This paper proposes an integrated approach (combining the Ecological Footprint Analysis with econometric regressions) to predict future environmental sustainability under different climate scenarios. Based on the case study of the U.S. Rio Grande Basin, the results show that this region has been sustainable in 1982–2012, although sustainability levels have been declining over time. In addition, projections for the future show that the entire region will most likely move away from sustainability by the end of this century under the high emission scenario (e.g., RCP8.5). These findings are relevant for sustainable resource management and allocation of local environmental resources as well as for decision-making support regarding climate risk adaptation and mitigation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]