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This paper investigates the connection between climate change and energy security in Europe and provides empirical evidence that these issues are the two faces of the same coin. Using a panel of 39 European countries during the period 1980–2020, the empirical analysis presented in this paper indicates that increasing the share of nuclear, renewables, and other nonhydrocarbon energy and improving energy efficiency could lead to a significant reduction in carbon emissions and improve energy security throughout Europe. Accordingly, policies and reforms aimed at shifting away from hydrocarbons and increasing energy efficiency in distribution and consumption are key to mitigating climate change, reducing energy dependence, and minimizing exposure to energy price volatility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While our modern world is today unimaginable without space, the space landscape is changing fast. For long near space has been a vast resource to exploit with few limits. This situation is however changing since in reality orbital resources are scarce and are threatened by the growth of the space debris population. Space debris is one of the human-made problems along the climate crisis, air pollution or ocean plastic pollution among other environmental issues that keep growing despite the awareness of their dangers to societies and our economies. The debris population has been growing drastically over the years due to the increase of rockets and satellites launches, accidental collisions of space objects, as well as deliberate Anti-Satellite Tests (ASAT s). Addressing appropriately the space debris issues is today an unescapable necessity to allow realising the deployments of the planned space constellations in a responsible manner. This would also provide stability and continuity to space activities so that the public and commercial sectors can continue to innovate and invest in new ventures that continue building a robust space economy. This paper discusses the direct and collateral challenges of space debris on the space economy and presents technological and political actions needed to face this growing problem for the present and future generations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The globalizing connections that defined the European Bronze Age in the second millennium BC either ended or abruptly changed in the decades around 1200 BC. The impact of climate change at 3.2 ka on such social changes has been debated for the eastern Mediterranean. This paper extends this enquiry of shifting human–climate relationships during the later Bronze Age into Europe for the first time. There, climate data indicate that significant shifts occurred in hydroclimate and temperatures in various parts of Europe ca. 3.2 ka. To test potential societal impacts, I review and evaluate archaeological data from Ireland and Britain, the Nordic area, the Carpathian Basin, the Po Valley, and the Aegean region in parallel with paleoclimate data. I argue that 1200 BC was a turning point for many societies in Europe and that climate played an important role in shaping this. Although long-term trajectories of sociopolitical systems were paramount in defining how and when specific societies changed, climate change acted as a force multiplier that undermined societal resilience in the wake of initial social disjunctures. In this way, it shaped, often detrimentally, the reconfiguration of societies. By impacting more directly on social venues of political recovery, realignment, and reorganization, climate forces accentuate societal crises and, in some areas, sustained them to the point of sociopolitical collapse. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: Spring in Europe has been trending earlier for almost half a century. Long-distance migrant birds, such as the Willow Warbler and Pied Flycatcher, which breed in Europe, have arrived earlier too. It is broadly accepted that warming springs in temperate regions explain the earlier arrival of migrants. However, migration started weeks earlier and thousands of kilometres away. There must be additional cues elsewhere triggering migration. Meteorologists have developed measures of atmospheric circulation which are related to climate variability in wide regions. One of them is the Southern Oscillation Index, which reflects El Niño/La Niña that cause droughts and floods in the southern hemisphere. Other atmospheric circulation patterns, measured by the North Atlantic Oscillation Index and Indian Ocean Dipole, help predict total rainfall for a whole season in various parts of Africa and Europe. Good rains are associated with plant growth and with insect abundance. Insects provide food for most of these migrants. Therefore, this paper asks the question: "Is the timing of arrival of long-distance migrants in spring related to the climates they experience in the places where they are over the year prior to arrival in Europe?" This paper says the answer is "Yes". Earlier springs in temperate regions since the 1980s, attributed to climate change, are thought to influence the earlier arrival of long-distance migrant passerines. However, this migration was initiated weeks earlier in Africa, where the Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, North Atlantic Oscillation drive climatic variability, and may additionally influence the migrants. Multiple regressions investigated whether 15 indices of climate in Africa and Europe explained the variability in timing of arrival for seven trans-Saharan migrants. Our response variable was Annual Anomaly (AA), derived from standardized mistnetting from 1982–2021 at Bukowo, Polish Baltic Sea. For each species, the best models explained a considerable part of the annual variation in the timing of spring's arrival by two to seven climate variables. For five species, the models included variables related to temperature or precipitation in the Sahel. Similarly, the models included variables related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (for four species), Indian Ocean Dipole (three), and Southern Oscillation (three). All included the Scandinavian Pattern in the previous summer. Our conclusion is that climate variables operating on long-distance migrants in the areas where they are present in the preceding year drive the phenological variation of spring migration. These results have implications for our understanding of carry-over effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to improve understanding of how EU citizens' left-right political positions and ideological polarization on climate change affect their views on both agriculture and diet in the context of climate change policy. It uses the methods of survey research and quantitative analyses of the data (principal components and regression analysis). The work combines the Farm- and Fork-related branches of Eurobarometer 93.2 (2020) and focuses on citizens' responses to a more climate-friendly agriculture and their ideas about 'eating a healthy and sustainable diet'. The analysis revealed different degrees of citizen support for a more climate-friendly agriculture and climate-friendly dietary options (including meat reduction). Citizens' left-right political position correlated negatively with support for a more climate-friendly agriculture and support for climate-friendly dietary options, but only in the Northwestern European countries. In these countries, the expected positive correlations between level of education and pro-environmental variables were found, but these correlations were not observed among the right-leaning participants. However, the positive correlation between support for a more climate-friendly agriculture and support for climate-friendly dietary options was less strongly affected by left-right political positions. Hence, public opinion is moving in the direction of EU climate policy over time; however, citizens did not fully acknowledge the priority of meat reduction in this context. Political and ideological polarization has seriously interfered with attempts to promote a more climate-friendly agriculture (Farm) and changes in dietary thinking including meat reduction (Fork). To promote these changes, more work must be done on the role of cultural identities in relation to climate issues. Yet, EU citizens showed an increasing support for more climate-friendly agriculture, which correlated positively with support for climate-friendly dietary options across the left-right political spectrum. Science-based information regarding climate risks and/or loyalty to local farmers may play a role in shaping these opinions. The priority of meat reduction needs considerably more attention to achieve the EU's climate objectives. For citizens, both nutritional (health) and environmental (i.e. climate change, as well as species decline and farm animal welfare) reasons can be strong motivating factors to consider meat reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Roughly a third of Europe's water demand is satisfied by groundwater abstraction. Understanding how future changes in climate, weather, vegetation and land use will affect the transport of atmospheric water to the subsurface is critical for successful implementation of Europe's Water Framework Directive and to maintain groundwater as a high-quality water resource. This paper summarizes the known drivers of trends and variations in groundwater recharge (precipitation, evapotranspiration and vegetation, land use) in Central Europe and how they have changed in recent decades. From past observations and future climate projections, the foreseeable consequences for groundwater recharge under a changing climate are discussed. The paper focuses on the complex role of soils and vegetation at the interface between atmosphere and groundwater, and addresses open questions and possible new directions for research. Summarizing the evidence, land use and land-use change have a large control on recharge, but the influence of climate change is increasingly recognized. Central Europe's current transition from a temperate and relatively moist climate towards a more variable and Mediterranean-like climate may shift recharge patterns and increase the ratio of focused-to-diffusive recharge as precipitation patterns change and the frequency and intensity of climatic extremes (e.g., heavy rainfall, heatwaves, droughts, floods and wild fires) increase. However, uncertainty remains with regard to the dynamic response of Europe's vegetation to climate change as well as to human modifications of the water cycle (e.g., through irrigation, forest management, artificial recharge or urbanization), which currently challenges model-based predictions of future recharge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Integrated vulnerability assessment framework for cultural heritage developed. • Semi-structured interviews assess cultural heritage stakeholder understanding. • Bottom-up consultation assesses sensitivity and adaptive capacity of heritage. • Determinants of adaptive capacity for European heritage identified. • Framework may identify future adaptation needs and measures. One of the most difficult problem facing those responsible for managing World Heritage Sites (WHS) is climate change, as it poses continuous new challenges to the conservation of cultural heritage. Moreover, as our climate continues to change our cultural heritage will potentially be exposed to diverse pressures and potentially to risks not previously experienced. Thus, management practices will need to be tailored in order to include climate change impacts. For climate change impacts to be incorporated into preservation frameworks and management practices from government policy level down to the practice in the field, data, information and assessment methods need to be available at a scale relevant to decision-makers. This paper presents an integrated vulnerability assessment methodology and applies it to three UNESCO cultural WHS in Europe. Through this process, semi-structured interviews were conducted with academics and experts in the management and conservation of cultural heritage, as well as with the managers and coordinators of WHS. The incorporation of bottom-up knowledge in the assessment process allowed for an understanding of the sensitivity and adaptive capacity of the sites, two components of vulnerability that are not given sufficient attention and ignored, respectively, in typical top-down climate change impact assessments. In particular, the interviews elucidated the determinants that enable or constrain the capacity to adapt, i.e., resources, including technical, economic and human; information and awareness; management capacity; learning capacity; leadership; communication and collaboration; and governance; with the lack of resources most commonly mentioned as the determinant impeding adaptation. 'Information and awareness' and 'management capacity' are determinants that were not previously identified in the field of cultural heritage. The former stresses the need to disseminate the results of scientific research for their incorporation in the management of heritage sites. Vulnerability assessments such as those performed in this paper can be used to target interventions to protect and strengthen the resilience of cultural heritage to climate change impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Behaviour, practices and culture constitute a powerful human factor in the energy system; in particular the interactions between technologies, practices and norms lock individuals in to certain patterns of (often inefficient) energy use. Consequently, behaviour change has gained traction amongst policymakers as a key area of intervention given the impact energy-related behaviours have on climate change. Given the increasing emphasis within policy perspectives in the European Union, it is surprising that a gap in understanding of the success factors of behaviour change initiatives remains. This paper addresses this gap by identifying and characterising behaviour change initiatives across five European countries (the UK, Ireland, France, Italy, and Spain). The paper provides insights into the success factors and commonly encountered barriers to behaviour change initiatives. Initiatives are classified into 6 broad categories (community-based interventions; information and awareness based interventions; eco-districts; show-case events; energy switching; and smart-technology focused interventions). The results suggest that there are significant knowledge gaps between what is known to work to engage individuals in behavioural change and what is currently being applied in practice. An over-reliance on education and awareness-raising projects is evident, illustrating that such projects do not sufficiently aim for sustained behavioural changes. A dearth of projects incorporating fiscal measures, regulations or legislation to drive behaviour change reflects reluctance on behalf of decision-makers to engage widely with diverse approaches to foster lifestyle change. This paper contributes understandings of the different models and delivery tools employed to change energy-related behaviours; insights into the critical success factors that underpin best practice and the barriers to action; and a ‘what works in practice’ overview of the meaningful approaches to change behaviour. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many countries have some kind of energy-system transformation either planned or ongoing for various reasons, such as to curb carbon emissions or to compensate for the phasing out of nuclear energy. One important component of these transformations is the overall reduction in energy demand. It is generally acknowledged that the domestic sector represents a large share of total energy consumption in many countries. Increased energy efficiency is one factor that reduces energy demand, but behavioral approaches (known as “sufficiency”) and their respective interventions also play important roles. In this paper, we address citizens’ heterogeneity regarding both their current behaviors and their willingness to realize their sufficiency potentials—that is, to reduce their energy consumption through behavioral change. We collaborated with three Swiss cities for this study. A survey conducted in the three cities yielded thematic sets of energy-consumption behavior that various groups of participants rated differently. Using this data, we identified four groups of participants with different patterns of both current behaviors and sufficiency potentials. The paper discusses intervention types and addresses citizens’ heterogeneity and behaviors from a city-based perspective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pluvial flooding is a result of overland flow and ponding before the runoff enters any watercourse, drainage system or sewer, or cannot enter it because the network is full to capacity, usually caused by intense rainfall. River and coastal floods get the most attention since they are largest and last the longest, while pluvial floods are relatively marginalized in research. Therefore, the main goal of this research was to show risk posed by pluvial floods, their connection to current global climate change processes, present effects of flooding in European cities, as well as what we can expect in the future. Furthermore, the aims were to present and get more familiar with scientific projects, strategies, directives and measures devised both on national and international levels, that deal with urban pluvial flood issues across the European continent. Climate change projections indicate that there will be an increase in the frequency and intensity of rainfall events throughout Europe and along with ongoing urbanization, the problem of pluvial flooding will most certainly require more attention, which it is starting to receive. Some countries have already developed their strategies and initiatives and implemented both structural and non-structural measures, such as spatial planning, constructional measures, information systems, reducing land sealing through policies, building codes and standards, on-site improvement of retention, infiltration, evaporation, and rainfall water recycling with the use of green roofs, permeable or porous pavements, rain gardening or urban rainwater harvesting. At the same time, there are numerous research papers, studies, conferences and workshops devoted to the problem of pluvial flooding and its management carried out in an attempt to properly deal with this hazard. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cities are gaining prominence committing to respond to the threat of climate change, e.g., by developing local climate plans or strategies. However, little is known regarding the approaches and processes of plan development and implementation, or the success and effectiveness of proposed measures. Mainstreaming is regarded as one approach associated with (implementation) success, but the extent of integration of local climate policies and plans in ongoing sectoral and/or development planning is unclear. This paper analyses 885 cities across the 28 European countries to create a first reference baseline on the degree of climate mainstreaming in local climate plans. This will help to compare the benefits of mainstreaming versus dedicated climate plans, looking at policy effectiveness and ultimately delivery of much needed climate change efforts at the city level. All core cities of the European Urban Audit sample were analyzed, and their local climate plans classified as dedicated or mainstreamed in other local policy initiatives. It was found that the degree of mainstreaming is low for mitigation (9% of reviewed cities; 12% of the identified plans) and somewhat higher for adaptation (10% of cities; 29% of plans). In particular horizontal mainstreaming is a major effort for local authorities; an effort that does not necessarily pay off in terms of success of action implementation. This study concludes that climate change issues in local municipalities are best tackled by either, developing a dedicated local climate plan in parallel to a mainstreamed plan or by subsequently developing first the dedicated and later a mainstreaming plan (joint or subsequent "dual track approach"). Cities that currently provide dedicated local climate plans (66% of cities for mitigation; 26% of cities for adaptation) may follow-up with a mainstreaming approach. This promises effective implementation of tangible climate actions as well as subsequent diffusion of climate issues into other local sector policies. The development of only broad sustainability or resilience strategies is seen as critical. • Trends in mainstreaming climate change issues were analyzed for 885 cities EU-28. • EU cities provide numerous local mitigation (#664) and/or adaptation (#321) plans. • Mainstreaming was investigated as vertical and horizontal approach. • 9% of cities have mainstreamed mitigation LCP; 12% of mitigation LCPs mainstreamed. • 10% of cities have mainstreamed adaptation LCP; 29% of adaptation LCPs mainstreamed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates how former hunter-gatherers living along the southern North Sea coast in NW Europe adapted to long-term and short-term climatic and environmental changes at the beginning of the Holocene. It is argued that contemporaneous hunter-gatherers repeatedly changed their hunting equipment in response to changing climate and environment, not just for functional reasons but mainly driven by socio-territorial considerations. Based on a Bayesian analysis of 122 critically selected radiocarbon dates a broad chronological correlation is demonstrated between rapid changes in the design and technology of stone projectiles and short but abrupt cooling events, occurring at 10.3, 9.3 and 8.2 ka cal BP. Combined with the rapid sea level rises and increased wildfires these climatic events probably impacted the lifeways of hunter-gatherers in such a way that they increasingly faced resource stress and competition, forcing them to invest in the symbolic defense of their social territories. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change also affects food production. However, what will be the response of agricultural crops to future climate conditions across Europe is one of the key issues for the development, implementation and proper implementation of the new European agricultural policy. This paper addresses the potential response of selected European agricultural crops (wheat [Triticum aestivum L.], maize [Zea Mays L.], potato [Solanum tuberosum L.] and olive [Olea europaea L.]) to climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) in the second half of the 21st century (2070) by considering different global climate models (CC, HE and MP). Bioclimatic data from the ECOCROP database (temperature and precipitation ranges) for each considered crop and the WorldClim climatic database for Europe were used to develop maps showing the future potential crop climate suitability. The results confirm existing assumptions that, in general, the optimal climatic conditions for the production of selected crops will shift towards higher latitudes or altitudes. Indeed, this potential spatial shift is, of course, species specific and depends on many other natural and socio-economic factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Countries all over the world face increasing flood risks because of urbanization and the effects of climate change. In Europe, flooding is the most common of all natural disasters and accounts for the largest number of casualties and highest amount of economic damage. The current scientific debate on how urban agglomerations can be made more resilient to these flood risks includes a discussion on how a diversification, coordination, and alignment of flood risk management strategies (FRMSs), including flood risk prevention through proactive spatial planning, flood defense, flood risk mitigation, flood preparation, and flood recovery, can contribute to flood resilience. Although effective implementation of FRMSs can be considered a necessary precondition for resilience, efficient and legitimate flood risk governance can enhance this societal resilience to flooding. Governance and legal research has the potential to provide crucial insights into the debate on how to improve resilience. Yet the social sciences have only looked into this issue in a fragmented manner, often without a comparative scope. This special feature addresses this knowledge gap by focusing on the scope and workings of FRMSs, but also on cross-cutting topics such as uncertainties, distributional effects, solidarity, knowledge management, and citizen participation. The papers included in this feature are written by both policy analysts and legal scholars. The above-mentioned issues are thus approached via a multidisciplinary perspective. All papers convincingly show that one-size-fits-all solutions for appropriate and resilient flood risk governance arrangements do not exist. Governance arrangements should be tailored to the existing physical, socio-cultural, and institutional context. This requires an open and transparent debate between scientists and practitioners on the normative starting point of flood risk governance, a clear division of responsibilities, the establishment of connectivity between actors, levels, and sectors through bridging mechanisms, and adequate knowledge infrastructures, both nationally and internationally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cities are major drivers of environmental change at all scales and are especially at risk from the ensuing effects, which include poor air quality, flooding and heat waves. Typically, these issues are studied on a city-by-city basis owing to the spatial complexity of built landscapes, local topography and emission patterns. However, to ensure knowledge sharing and to integrate local-scale processes with regional and global scale modelling initiatives, there is a pressing need for a world-wide database on cities that is suited for environmental studies. In this paper we present a European database that has a particular focus on characterising urbanised landscapes. It has been derived using tools and techniques developed as part of the World Urban Database and Access Portal Tools (WUDAPT) project, which has the goal of acquiring and disseminating climate-relevant information on cities worldwide. The European map is the first major step toward creating a global database on cities that can be integrated with existing topographic and natural land-cover databases to support modelling initiatives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies on the last interglacial (LIG) can provide information on how our environment behaved in a period of slightly higher global temperatures at about 125 ± 4 ka, even if it is not the best analogue for the Holocene. The available LIG climate proxy records are usually better preserved and can be studied at a higher resolution than those of the preceding interglacials, allowing detailed comparisons. This paper presents complex stable hydrogen, carbon and oxygen isotope records obtained for carbonate (δ 13 C and δ 18 O carb ) and fluid inclusion hosted water (δD and δ 18 O w ) of a stalagmite from the Baradla Cave system in Central Europe that covers most of the LIG, as proven by U-Th dates. Comparing its C and O isotope data with records reported for other speleothem (cave-hosted carbonate) deposits from Europe revealed the complex behavior of these climate proxies, with a concerted relative increase in 18 O of carbonates from 128 to 120 ka and synchronized shifts in the opposite direction after 119 ka. The hydrogen isotope analyses of inclusion-hosted water extracted from the BAR-II stalagmite also correspond to the regional climate proxy records, with meaningful deviations from global temperature trends. Beside following the general paleotemperature pattern from the climate optimum (high δD values up to −64‰ around 120 ka) to the subsequent cooling starting at about 119 ka (low δD values down to −90‰ at about 109 ka), a period between 126.5 and 123 ka with low δD values (down to −81‰) is detected in the BAR-II stalagmite. Although the isotope shifts are muted in the C-O isotope data of carbonate due to competitive fractionation processes, the δ 13 C data show a positive relationship with the δD pattern, indicating humidity – and possibly temperature – variations. The periods with low δD values fit well to temperature and humidity changes inferred from proxy records from western Europe to the eastern Mediterranean. Spatial distributions of these variables show, that at about 125 ± 2 ka the Mediterranean region was characterized by warm, humid conditions and enhanced seasonality with elevated winter precipitation. The combined interpretation of stable isotope data revealed that the Alpine and Mediterranean regions behaved differently during Greenland Stadial 26 (GS26, ∼119 to 116.2 ka). While the Alpine records fluctuated in close agreement with the Central Greenland ice core δ 18 O data, the BAR-II stalagmite show a positive δ 18 O carb anomaly. The Baradla data indicate enhanced aridity and seasonality for a part of GS26, with the relative dominance of summer precipitation and Mediterranean moisture contribution. Following the GS26 event, the effect of long-term global cooling becomes dominant in the Baradla isotope records and leads to glacial inception at about 109 ka. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The concept of territoriality and its relationship to the focus and substance of spatial planning is the subject of much interest at the present time and this paper seeks to contribute to the debate by stepping into the sea. The first part of the paper establishes a framework for considering the spatial planning implications of changing conceptions of territoriality, outlining key sources of territorial innovation and their implications in terms of the development of new units and styles of governance, new challenges for planning practice, and the potential for feedback informing the development of planning theory. The application of the framework is then illustrated in the second part of the paper with reference to the emerging field of maritime spatial planning and in particular to the pioneering work that is being undertaken in Europe. This work is testing established notions of territoriality by highlighting the strong and growing connections between the land and the sea. Here some of the key implications for future spatial planning practice are identified. These indicate that there is a growing recognition of the need for innovation in the territorial units of governance in maritime regions and in the themes, processes and methods of spatial planning in these areas. The paper concludes with some observations on the implications of these findings for the theory of spatial planning. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Abstract: The main aim of this paper is to offer a brief evaluation of recent transport geography research and publication. It examines critical observations on the sub-discipline from the past two decades, and endeavours to illustrate how the engagement of transport geography belies at least some criticisms. Arguing that both ‘positivist’ and ‘new mobilities’ approaches have validity in a transport geography research agenda, the paper goes onto exemplify this through brief discussions of areas where transport geography could gain a higher profile and where clear mutual benefit would result from greater engagement, notably, at the interface between transport and tourism, focusing on mobilities in post-transition Central and Eastern Europe and climate change issues. Finally, conclusions are drawn and suggestions are made to inform a transport geography research agenda. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The knowledge about potential climate change impacts on forests is continuously expanding and some changes in growth, drought induced mortality and species distribution have been observed. However despite a significant body of research, a knowledge and communication gap exists between scientists and non-scientists as to how climate change impact scenarios can be interpreted and what they imply for European forests. It is still challenging to advise forest decision makers on how best to plan for climate change as many uncertainties and unknowns remain and it is difficult to communicate these to practitioners and other decision makers while retaining emphasis on the importance of planning for adaptation. In this paper, recent developments in climate change observations and projections, observed and projected impacts on European forests and the associated uncertainties are reviewed and synthesised with a view to understanding the implications for forest management. Current impact assessments with simulation models contain several simplifications, which explain the discrepancy between results of many simulation studies and the rapidly increasing body of evidence about already observed changes in forest productivity and species distribution. In simulation models uncertainties tend to cascade onto one another; from estimating what future societies will be like and general circulation models (GCMs) at the global level, down to forest models and forest management at the local level. Individual climate change impact studies should not be uncritically used for decision-making without reflection on possible shortcomings in system understanding, model accuracy and other assumptions made. It is important for decision makers in forest management to realise that they have to take long-lasting management decisions while uncertainty about climate change impacts are still large. We discuss how to communicate about uncertainty – which is imperative for decision making – without diluting the overall message. Considering the range of possible trends and uncertainties in adaptive forest management requires expert knowledge and enhanced efforts for providing science-based decision support. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change will affect road networks during this century. The effects will be different in various parts of the world due to differences in local climate change and in the structure and properties of roads. In this paper, climate change projections are presented for climate variables that are most likely to affect the long-term performance of road networks in Europe. We apply four regional climate simulations up to the year 2100 using two plausible future emission scenarios. The results show that the changing climate will require significant adaptation measures in the near future in order to maintain the operability of the European road network. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Europe and in particular its southern part are expected to undergo serious climate changes during summer in response to anthropogenic forcing, with large surface warming and decrease in precipitation. Yet, serious uncertainties remain, especially over central and western Europe. Several mechanisms have been suggested to be important in that context but their relative importance and possible interplays are still not well understood. In this paper, the role of soil-atmosphere interactions, cloud-temperature interactions and land-sea warming contrast in summer European climate change and how they interact are analyzed. Models for which evapotranspiration is strongly limited by soil moisture in the present climate are found to tend to simulate larger future decrease in evapotranspiration. Models characterized by stronger present-day anti-correlation between cloud cover and temperature over land tend to simulate larger future decrease in cloud cover. Large model-to-model differences regarding land-sea warming contrast and its impacts are also found. Warming over land is expected to be larger than warming over sea, leading to a decrease in continental relative humidity and precipitation because of the discrepancy between the change in atmospheric moisture capacity over land and the change in specific humidity. Yet, it is not true for all the models over our domain of interest. Models in which evapotranspiration is not limited by soil moisture and with a weak present-day anti-correlation between cloud cover and temperature tend to simulate smaller land surface warming. In these models, change in specific humidity over land is therefore able to match the continental increase in moisture capacity, which leads to virtually no change in continental relative humidity and smaller precipitation change. Because of the physical links that exist between the response to anthropogenic forcing of important impact-related climate variables and the way some mechanisms are simulated in the context of present-day variability, this study suggests some potentially useful metrics to reduce summer European climate change uncertainties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric variables play a fundamental role in driving man-managed ecosystems and more specifically in agro-ecosystems, determining the quantity and quality of crop production. On the other hand, climate variability can be seen as the superimposition of gradual and abrupt changes. This paper is focused on European surface air temperature in the period 1951-2010. Analysis of this dataset identified breakpoints that define two homogeneous sub-periods: 1951-1987 and 1988-2010. Thermal resources for crops were analyzed adopting a 'normal heat hours' approach. Computation highlighted a general increase in thermal resources in the European continent for crop groups II and III (C3 and C4 plants adapted to high or moderate temperatures), while a decline of thermal resources for crop group I (cold adapted C3) was highlighted in the Mediterranean area. The climate variability justifies a change in the potential latitudinal limits of different groups of crops, representing a fundamental step for crop adaptation to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Satellite-derived high-resolution precipitation products (HRPP) have been developed to address the needs of the user community and are now available with 0.25° × 0.25° (or less) subdaily resolutions. This paper evaluates a number of commonly available satellite-derived HRPPs covering northwest Europe over a 6-yr period. Precipitation products include the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) morphing (CMORPH) technique, the CPC merged microwave technique, the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) blended technique, and the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN) technique. In addition, the Geosynchronous Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) precipitation index (GPI) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) operational forecast model products are included for comparison. Surface reference data from the European radar network is used as ground truth, supported by the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) precipitation gauge analysis and gauge data over the United Kingdom. Measures of correlation, bias ratio, probability of detection, and false alarm ratio are used to evaluate the products. Results show that satellite products generally exhibit a seasonal cycle in correlation, bias ratio, probability of detection, and false alarm ratio, with poorer statistics during the winter. The ECMWF model also shows a seasonal cycle in the correlation, although the results are poorer during the summer, while the bias ratio, probability of detection, and false alarm ratio are consistent through all seasons. Importantly, all the satellite HRPPs underestimate precipitation over northwest Europe in all seasons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Understanding climate patterns, with their decisive influence on plant distribution and development, is crucial to understanding the history of vegetation patterns in Europe during the Miocene. This paper presents the detailed analyses of several precipitation parameters, including monthly precipitation of the wettest, driest and warmest months, for five Miocene stages. In conjunction with seasonality of temperature, those parameters provide a meaningful measure of continentality and can help to document Miocene climate changes and patterns and their possible influence on vegetation. Climate reconstructions provided here are entirely based on palaeobotanical material. In total, 169 Miocene floras were selected, including 14 Burdigalian, 41 Langhian, 40 Serravallian, 36 Tortonian, and 38 Messinian localities. All floras were analysed using the Coexistence Approach. The analysis of several precipitation parameters, the statistical inter-correlation of results, and the comparison with modern patterns provides a comprehensive account on Miocene precipitation. Miocene climatic changes after the Mid Miocene Climatic Optimum (MMCO) are evidenced in our data set by three major factors, i.e. (1) increasing seasonality of temperature, (2) changes in the annual distribution of precipitation towards a precipitation peak in summer, and (3) a late increase of longitudinal gradients of precipitation parameters. Evidence of continental climate in Eastern Europe first appears during the Messinian. In addition to changes in temperature, shifts in the annual distribution of precipitation may have played a major role in post-Langhian climate changes. However, the most significant climatic transformations occurred later, from the end of Miocene through to the present. Several authors have described patterns of vegetation development in Europe that are in good agreement with our finding of the first evidence for continental climate in Eastern Europe during the Messinian. Our data do not support an onset of opening of vegetation during the Tortonian or even earlier, as has been described for some parts of Eastern and Southern Europe. Possibly either non climatic parameters influenced such an early development, or our data lack the required resolution and/or spatial coverage to fully decipher the influence of continentality on vegetation and to correlate climate and vegetation statistically. Nevertheless, climatic data that quantify continentality can provide a sound basis for explaining the expansion of grassland in Eurasia. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Climatic changes, together with an increase in the movement of dogs across Europe, have caused an increase in the geographical range of Dirofilaria infections. The present paper is focuses on northeastern European countries, where survey data have shown an increase of Dirofilaria repens infections both in animals and humans. A growing degree day-based forecast model has been developed to predict the occurrence. The model is based on evidence that there is a threshold of 14°C below which Dirofilaria development will not proceed in mosquitoes, there is a requirement of 130 growing degree-days (GDDs) for larvae to reach infectivity, and there is a maximum life expectancy of 30 days for a mosquito vector. The output of this model predicted that the summer temperatures (with peaks in August) are sufficient to facilitate extrinsic incubation of Dirofilaria even at latitudes of 56°N and longitudes of 39°E. Despite the fact that both Dirofilaria immitis and D. repens have the same temperature requirement for extrinsic incubation in mosquitoes, empirical data has shown that D. repens is the main cause of dirofilarial infections in both humans and animals. Clinical signs are absent in most canine infections with D. repens. Furthermore, diagnosis is problematic and in-clinic serological tests, such as those for D. immitis, do not exist. Therefore, most infections go undiagnosed, allowing the infection to spread undetected. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The idea of using large-scale information to predict local climate variability is widely exploited in climate change impact studies as an alternative to computationally expensive high-resolution models. This approach implies the hypothesis that the statistical relationship between large-scale climate states and local variables defined for the present-day climate remains valid in the altered climate. In this paper, the concept of weather regimes is used to deduce a relationship between large-scale circulation and European winter temperature. The change in temperature with increased greenhouse gases is, however, not homogeneous among the individual regimes. As a result, the impact of the weather regimes on local temperature changes varies in the future, limiting its usefulness for refining temperature changes to the small scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The CORINE land cover (CLC) data derived from satellite images for the period of the 1990s and 2000 (± one year) provide information about land cover changes for a substantial part of Europe. Availability of these data can contribute to new approaches to the assessment of the European landscape, for instance in the context of environmental and economic accounting, diversity, modelling of its properties, etc. These possibilities are given by the fact that land cover reflects the biophysical state of the real landscape. The paper contains information about frequency and areas of CLC and their changes in the period 1990–2000, but above all in the processes – flows (LCF) that take place in the European landscape. Results of statistical analysis and maps demonstrate the frequency and rate (by two values: one above and another below the mean LCF rates) of the following processes: urbanisation (LCF1), intensification of agriculture (LCF2), extensification of agriculture (LCF3), afforestation (LCF4), deforestation (LCF5) and construction of water bodies (LCF6). LCF1 was most conspicuous in the Netherlands (2.1% of total country''s area), LCF2 in Ireland (3.3%), LCF3 in the Czech Republic (over 3.5%), LCF4 in Portugal (over 4%), LCF5 in Portugal (over 3.5%) and LCF6 in the Netherlands and Slovakia (over 0.1%). The overall area of identified land cover changes in 24 European countries in the period 1990–2000 was around 88,000km2 which equals 2.5% of their total area. Details presented concerning the LCF frequency and rate will certainly contribute to the overall awareness and anticipation of possible developments in the European landscape. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Climatic changes, together with an increase in the movement of cats and dogs across Europe, have caused an increase in the geographical range of several vector borne parasites like Dirofilaria, and in the risk of infection for animals and humans. The present paper reviews the effects of climate and other global drivers on Dirofilaria immitis and Dirofilaria repens infections in Europe and the possible implications on the transmission and control of these mosquito-borne nematodes. In the last several years, growing degree day (GDD)-based forecast models, which use wide or local scale temperature data, have been developed to predict the occurrence and seasonality of Dirofilaria in different parts of the world. All these models are based on the fact that: there is a threshold of 14°C below which Dirofilaria development will not proceed; and there is a requirement of 130 GDD for larvae to reach infectivity and a maximum life expectancy of 30 days for a vector mosquito. The output of these models predicts that the summer temperatures (with peaks in July) are sufficient to facilitate extrinsic incubation of Dirofilaria even at high latitudes. The global warming projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggests that warm summers suitable for Dirofilaria transmission in Europe will be the rule in the future decades and if the actual trend of temperature increase continues, filarial infection should spread into previously infection-free areas. These factors not only favour incubation of Dirofilaria, but also impact on mosquito species. Recent findings have also demonstrated that Aedes albopictus is now considered to be an important, competent vector of Dirofilaria infections. This mosquito species could spread from southern to northern European countries in the near future, changing the epidemiological patterns of dirofilariosis both in humans and animals. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The impact of climate change on monuments and historic buildings is addressed for the first time, in terms of modelling and predicting thermal stress on stone in Europe over the next century. While the effect of changing climate on frost in porous materials and on surface recession of carbonate stone, has recently been treated, prediction of the future evolution of thermal stress on stones still requires elucidation. The present paper provides maps showing future scenarios of thermal stress on Carrara marble for the 21st century, using the output data from the Hadley general and regional climate models in the European window. The work carried out made it possible to forecast in the near and far futures (i.e. 2010–2039, 2070–2099) the number of events per year of thermal stress in marble greater than 20 MPa, the latter being adopted as the maximum sustainable load for this specific material. The data demonstrate that the Mediterranean area will continue to experience the highest level of risk from thermal stress, with more than 300 events/year predicted in the 2070–2099 period. In addition, Central Europe will be more affected by thermal stress during the present century compared to the baseline period, 1961–1990, taken as reference. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Earth Observation satellite data allows for the monitoring of the surface of our planet at predefined intervals covering large areas. However, there is only one medium resolution sensor family in orbit that enables an observation time span of 40 and more years at a daily repeat interval. This is the AVHRR sensor family. If we want to investigate the long-term impacts of climate change on our environment, we can only do so based on data that remains available for several decades. If we then want to investigate processes with respect to climate change, we need very high temporal resolution enabling the generation of long-term time series and the derivation of related statistical parameters such as mean, variability, anomalies, and trends. The challenges to generating a well calibrated and harmonized 40-year-long time series based on AVHRR sensor data flown on 14 different platforms are enormous. However, only extremely thorough pre-processing and harmonization ensures that trends found in the data are real trends and not sensor-related (or other) artefacts. The generation of European-wide time series as a basis for the derivation of a multitude of parameters is therefore an extremely challenging task, the details of which are presented in this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The aim of this paper is to study the relation between climate change and the earliness of Birch pollination, a tree that produces allergenic pollen, which is of particular importance in north-western Europe. The study allowed us to make projections for the next few years in order to evaluate the evolution of Birch pollination starting date according to spring temperatures. It has been done in ten European locations, Kevo and Turku (Finland), London (United Kingdom), Paris and Lyon (France), Brussels (Belgium), Zürich (Switzerland), Vienna (Austria), Poznan and Cracow (Poland). The study period ranged from six to twenty-eight years depending on the city. Pollens were recorded daily thanks to volumetric Hirst traps, and the data were compared to monthly temperatures from January to May using correlations and multiple regressions. Except in Kevo where the trend is towards colder springs and a later pollination, in the other cities the results showed a spring warming associated with an earlier starting date of pollination: this trend is very well marked in Turku, Zürich, London, Vienna and Brussels, less evident in France while there is no trend in Poland. The results of this work should lead to an updating of the pollen calendars and the pollen forecast models, in the cities where there is a pronounced trend. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

SummaryUnder the Kyoto Protocol, the European Union is committed to a reduction in CO2 emissions to 92% of baseline (1990) levels during the first commitment period (2008–2012). The Kyoto Protocol allows carbon emissions to be offset by demonstrable removal of carbon from the atmosphere. Thus, land-use/land-management change and forestry activities that are shown to reduce atmospheric CO2 levels can be included in the Kyoto targets. These activities include afforestation, reforestation and deforestation (article 3.3 of the Kyoto Protocol) and the improved management of agricultural soils (article 3.4). In this paper, we estimate the carbon mitigation potential of various agricultural land-management strategies and examine the consequences of European policy options on carbon mitigation potential, by examining combinations of changes in agricultural land-use/land-management. We show that no single land-management change in isolation can mitigate all of the carbon needed to meet Europe's climate change commitments, but integrated combinations of land-management strategies show considerable potential for carbon mitigation. Three of the combined scenarios, one of which is an optimal realistic scenario, are by themselves able to meet Europe's emission limitation or reduction commitments. Through combined land-management scenarios, we show that the most important resource for carbon mitigation in agriculture is the surplus arable land. We conclude that in order to fully exploit the potential of arable land for carbon mitigation, policies will need to be implemented to allow surplus arable land to be put into alternative long-term land-use. Of all options examined, bioenergy crops show the greatest potential for carbon mitigation. Bioenergy crop production also shows an indefinite mitigation potential compared to other options where the mitigation potential is finite. We suggest that in order to exploit fully the bioenergy option, the... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is an ongoing scientific debate about how environmental concern develops in a population, and under which circumstances it might decline at some point. In this paper, by analysing thirty years of microdata from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), I investigate the role of socioeconomic factors and political preferences in altering and addressing environmental perceptions in Germany, Europe's green leader. Results from correlated random-effects models reveal, inter alia, that economic insecurity and support for right-wing political parties significantly contribute to lowering environmental concern. Hence, policymakers ought to focus on economic insecurity in order to increase citizens' environmental concern and, eventually, bring an enhancement in pro-environmental behaviour as a result of the voters' political will. • I examine the economic and political factors shaping environmental concern over time. • I analyse 30 years of microdata from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP). • I employ Mundlak-type correlated random-effects models and Difference-in-Differences. • Economic insecurity and political choices are key drivers of environmental concern. • The results may be useful to policymakers, marketers, green businesses, and educators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Technological and behavioural developments in Europe at 400,000 years ago. • Model of landscape and resources shaping development of localised material culture. • Model of population movement triggered by shifts in climate or environment. • Estimates of social group and territory size for Middle Pleistocene Europe. Identification of cultural groups is rare in the early Palaeolithic due to site formation processes including taphonomy and the effect of raw material and site function. This paper reviews a critical period in Europe at about 400 ka (MIS 11) when we may be able to identify such groups. This period, sees more sustained occupation and evidence of new technologies, including bone and wooden tools, hunting and fire-use. Importantly, brain size had begun to approach modern capacity. The fine-tuned record from Britain enables correlation of sites and new models of human behaviour to be developed. Millennial-scale changes in material culture can now be recognised, which can be interpreted as brief incursions by different cultural groups into Britain from mainland Europe. We suggest that population movement was primarily driven by changes in climate and environment. We further propose that variation in material culture is a reflection of local resources and landscape and that during stable environment localised expressions of culture emerge. This can be applied to Europe, where it is suggested that a complex mosaic of small-scale cultural groupings can be identified, some with and some without handaxes, but underpinned by a common set of technologies and behaviours. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]