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Climate change is causing a shift in long-term weather patterns and altering parameters such as temperature, atmospheric CO2, and precipitation patterns. It is likely to be an indirect effect of greenhouse gases and their enhancement in the atmosphere largely induced by human activities. As poikilothermic animals, insects are highly dependent on environmental conditions, particularly temperature, which affects various aspects of their life. Climate change have a direct impact on insect pests by affecting their population dynamics, diurnal activity, growth rate and diapause. It may lead to a range expansion, increased overwintering survival, more generations per year, elevated risk of invasive insect species and insect-borne plant diseases, and changes in their interactions with host plants and natural predators. Indirectly, changes in climate can modify host plants and competitors, further complicating the effect on insect biology and phenology. Impact of elevated CO2 levels on their host plants can affect growth rates, fecundity, and population densities of insects. Altered precipitation patterns, such as droughts and floods, affect insect survival and diapause. Further, there is significant implications of climate change on different aspects of insect ecology, including insect distribution, behavior, and communication. The climate changes are predicted to alter the geographic ranges and migration behavior of insect species, creating new ecological niches and removing low-temperature barriers. These changes can threaten food security and increase the latitudinal and altitudinal range of crop pests. It also affects natural enemies, which can decrease the plant defense system against insect pests. Additionally, climate change can affect pheromonal communication, including production to behavioral response, in insects that rely on long-range chemical signals for communication. The review paper highlights the potential impacts of climate change on insect biological, phenological and ecological aspects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of China Rural Water & Hydropower is the property of China Rural Water & Hydropower Editorial Office and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The global warming has triggered climate change, which has a certain impact on the redistribution of hydrology and water resources, and may even tilts the ecological balance. This paper sums up the trends of some climate and hydrological indices in several Chinese rivers, namely, temperature, precipitation and runoff, and examines how these indices vary with the time. Then, the wavelet analysis was introduced to disclose the hidden features of temperature, precipitation and runoff time series, revealing certain correlations between these series. As a result, the effect of temperature on precipitation was explored through correlation analysis, so was that of temperature and precipitation on runoff. Finally, the ecological water demands in the upstream, midstream and downstream of the target river were computed, and found to change in a similar way to temperature and precipitation. The research findings shed new light on the maintenance of hydrology and water resources in rivers and the handling of relevant problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global mean precipitation changes due to climate change were previously shown to be relatively small and well constrained by the energy budget. However, local precipitation changes can be much more significant. In this paper we propose that for large enough scales, for which the water budget is closed (precipitation [P] roughly equals evaporation [E]), changes in P approach the small global mean value. However, for smaller scales, for which P and E are not necessarily equal and convergence of water vapor still plays a role, changes in P could be much larger due to dynamical contributions. Using 40 years of two reanalysis data sets, 39 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models and additional numerical simulations, we identify the scale of transition in the importance of the different terms in the water budget to precipitation to be ~3,500–4,000 km and demonstrate its relation to the spatial scale of precipitation changes under climate change. Plain Language Summary: Predicting precipitation changes due to climate change is of great importance for society. We propose that the present‐day characteristic scale of the hydrological cycle (for which precipitation roughly equals evaporation) predicts the spatial scale of future precipitation changes under global warming. For smaller scales than the characteristic scale of the hydrological cycle, changes in precipitation could be much larger than the global mean change due to water vapor convergence contributions. However, above this scale the precipitation changes approach the relatively small global mean change. Using reanalysis data sets, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, and additional numerical simulations, we identify the characteristic scale of the hydrological cycle to be ~3,500–4,000 km and demonstrate its relation to the spatial scale of precipitation changes under climate change. These results suggest that changes in precipitation on the regional‐continental scale could be much larger than the global mean change. Key Points: The present‐day characteristic scale of the hydrological cycle predicts the spatial scale of precipitation changes under climate changeUsing reanalysis data sets and CMIP5 models, we identify the characteristic scale of the hydrological cycle to be ~3,500–4,000 kmThese results suggest that changes in precipitation on the continental scale could be much larger than the global mean change [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agricultural production across the African continent is subjected to various effects of climate variability. One of the main staple foods in Sub-Saharan Africa is maize. However, limited scientific research has recently focused on understanding the possible effects of hydro-climatic variability on maize production. The aim of the present work was to contribute to policy and climate adaptation, thus reducing the vulnerability of maize production to climate change over Equatorial Africa. This study firstly examined long-term trends of precipitation (PRE), soil moisture (SM), actual evapotranspiration (E), and potential evapotranspiration (Ep), as well as surface air temperatures, including the minimum (TMIN) and maximum (TMAX). Secondly, the relationship between maize production and these climate variables was quantified for 18 Equatorial African countries (EQCs) over 1980−2021. To assess the linear trends, Mann–Kendall and Sen's slope tests were used to quantify the magnitude of the hydro-climatic variable trends at the 5% significance level, and Pearson's correlation coefficient was used to evaluate the relation of these climate parameters with the maize production. The annual mean PRE declined at 0.03 mm day−110a−1. Other climate variables increased at different rates: SM at 0.02 mmday−110a−1, E at 0.03 mm day−110a−1, Ep at 0.02 mm day−1 10a−1, TMIN and TMAX at 0.01 °C day−110a−1. A regional analysis revealed heterogeneous significant wet–dry and warm–cool trends over the EQCs. While, spatially, dry and warm climates were observed in the central to eastern areas, wet and warm conditions dominated the western regions. Generally, the correlations of maize production with the E, Ep, TMAX, and TMIN were strong (r > 0.7) and positive, while moderate (r > 0.45) correlations of maize production with PRE and SM were obvious. These country-wide analyses highlight the significance of climate change policies and offer a scientific basis for designing tailored adaptation strategies in rainfed agricultural regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper focuses on climate change in Turkey caused by energy consumption using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag and Toda-Yamamoto causality analysis. The motivation and aim are: Finding evidence of causality for the relationship between energy consumption, growing economies and climate change depending on parameters that vary over time, which are observed and argued through political implications. Temperature and precipitation are the dependent variables for climate change; energy types and Gross Domestic Product per capita are the independent variables for economic determiners. Data was collected annually from various institutions between 1980 and 2019. According to the Toda-Yamamoto test, a negative relationship is determined between renewable energy consumption and temperature in both the short and long term. The results reveal that a 1% increase in renewable energy reduces the temperature by 0.031%. The increase of renewable energy may help in decreasing temperature. Precipitation and non-renewable energy consumption have a positive relationship in both the short and long term, with a 1% increase in non-renewable energy consumption causing a 0.175% increase in precipitation, indicating a negative effect on climate change. Encouraging renewable energy consumption through government incentives can be a powerful solution to decrease the negative effects of climate change in Turkey. • This study examines the relationships between climate change and energy consumption. • It conducts an ARDL analysis and Toda-Yamamoto causality tests in a growing economy. • Renewable energy consumption has a positive effect (reduces) temperature. • Non-renewable energy consumption has a negative effect (increases) precipitation. • Renewable energy consumption is critical mitigating global warming in Turkey. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Serbia is situated at Balkan Peninsula, and currently majority of the territory is under warm temperate - fully humid climate type with warm summers (Cfb type, according to Koppen-Geiger Climate Classification). Observed changes in climate conditions since 1961 until present time show significant increase in temperature change and change in precipitation patterns. Disturbances in heat conditions, which are recorded to affect human health, agricultural production and forest ecosystem, are priority in climate change analysis and application in adaptation planning. Future change analysis show accelerated increase of temperature by the end of the 21st century, which proves the needs for immediate measures for mitigation of negative impacts. Temperature increase averaged over the territory of Serbia is 1.2 °C for the period 1996-2015 with respect to the period 1961-1980, with highest increase of maximum daily temperature during the summer season, 2.2 °C. Using high resolution multi-model ensemble approach for analysis of the future changes with respect to the base period 1986-2005, in compliance with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment report (AR5), it is estimated that temperature may increase by 1.9 °C according to Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario and by 4.4 °C according to RCP8.5 by the end of the century. Spatial distribution of temperature increase, intensification of high precipitation events and decrease of summer precipitation, show intrusion of subtropical climate over the Serbia and increase of high temperature and high precipitation risks. Results presented in this paper, using high-resolution multi-model ensemble approach, provide climate change information for short term to long term planning in different sectors of economy and preservation of human health and environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in climate because of global warming during the 20th and 21st centuries have a direct impact on the hydrological cycle as driven by precipitation. However, studying precipitation over the Western Maritime Continent (WMC) is a great challenge, as the WMC has a complex topography and weather system. Understanding changes in precipitation patterns and their groupings is an important aspect of planning mitigation measures to minimize flood and drought risk as well as of understanding the redistribution of precipitation arising from climate change. This paper employs Ward's hierarchical clustering on regional climate model (RCM)-simulated monthly precipitation gridded data over 42 approximately evenly distributed grid stations from the years 2030 to 2060. The aim was to investigate spatial and temporal groupings over the four major landmasses in the WMC and to compare these with historical precipitation groupings. The results showed that the four large-scale islands of Java, Sumatra, Peninsular Malaysia and Borneo would experience a significant spatial redistribution of precipitation over the years 2030 to 2060, as compared to historical patterns from 1980 to 2005. The spatial groups were also compared for two future forcing scenarios, representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, and different groupings over the Borneo region were observed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The vertical velocity distribution in the atmosphere is asymmetric with stronger upward than downward motion. This asymmetry is important for the distribution of precipitation and its extremes and for an effective static stability that has been used to represent the effects of latent heating on extratropical eddies. Idealized GCM simulations show that the asymmetry increases as the climate warms, but current moist dynamical theories based around small-amplitude modes greatly overestimate the increase in asymmetry with warming found in the simulations. Here, we first analyze the changes in asymmetry with warming using numerical inversions of a moist quasigeostrophic omega equation applied to output from the idealized GCM. The inversions show that increases in the asymmetry with warming in the GCM simulations are primarily related to decreases in moist static stability on the left-hand side of the moist omega equation, whereas the dynamical forcing on the right-hand side of the omega equation is unskewed and contributes little to the asymmetry of the vertical velocity distribution. By contrast, increases in asymmetry with warming for small-amplitude modes are related to changes in both moist static stability and dynamical forcing leading to enhanced asymmetry in warm climates. We distill these insights into a toy model of the moist omega equation that is solved for a given moist static stability and wavenumber of the dynamical forcing. In comparison to modal theory, the toy model better reproduces the slow increase of the asymmetry with climate warming in the idealized GCM simulations and over the seasonal cycle from winter to summer in reanalysis. Significance Statement: Upward velocities are stronger than downward velocities in the atmosphere, and this asymmetry is important for the distribution of precipitation because precipitation is linked to upward motion. An important and open question is what sets this asymmetry and how much it increases as the climate warms. Past work has shown that current theories greatly overestimate the increase in asymmetry with warming in idealized simulations. In this work, we develop a more complete theory and show that it is able to better reproduce the slow increase of the asymmetry with warming that is found over the seasonal cycle from winter to summer and in idealized simulations of warming climates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The influence of climate feedbacks on regional hydrological changes under warming is poorly understood. Here, a moist energy balance model (MEBM) with a Hadley Cell parameterization is used to isolate the influence of climate feedbacks on changes in zonal‐mean precipitation‐minus‐evaporation (P − E) under greenhouse‐gas forcing. It is shown that cloud feedbacks act to narrow bands of tropical P − E and increase P − E in the deep tropics. The surface‐albedo feedback shifts the location of maximum tropical P − E and increases P − E in the polar regions. The intermodel spread in the P − E changes associated with feedbacks arises mainly from cloud feedbacks, with the lapse‐rate and surface‐albedo feedbacks playing important roles in the polar regions. The P − E change associated with cloud feedback locking in the MEBM is similar to that of a climate model with inactive cloud feedbacks. This work highlights the unique role that climate feedbacks play in causing deviations from the "wet‐gets‐wetter, dry‐gets‐drier" paradigm. Plain Language Summary: Climate feedbacks, which act to amplify or dampen global warming, play an important role in shaping how the climate system responds to changes in greenhouse‐gas concentrations. Here, we use an idealized climate model, which makes a simplified assumption about how energy is transported in the atmosphere, to examine how climate feedbacks influence the patterns of precipitation and evaporation change under global warming. We find that the cloud feedback acts to narrow the band of rainfall on the equator known as the Intertropical Convergence Zone and that the surface‐albedo feedback acts to shift the location of maximum rainfall. We also find that the cloud feedback accounts for most of the uncertainty associated with feedbacks in regional hydrological change under warming. The idealized model with a locked cloud feedback also simulates a change in precipitation and evaporation that is similar to a comprehensive climate model with an inactive cloud feedback. Key Points: A moist energy balance model (MEBM) is used to investigate the influence of climate feedbacks on regional hydrological changes under warmingCloud feedbacks act to narrow and increase tropical P − E and are the dominant source of feedback uncertainty in regional hydrological changesThe MEBM with a locked cloud feedback largely replicates a climate model with an inactive cloud feedback [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water is a valuable yet scarce resource in agriculture. Optimizing crop production relies on irrigation, but within the framework of sustainable agriculture, efforts should prioritize reducing irrigation water usage. Unfortunately, climate change increases plant water requirements, consequently heightening the need for irrigation. The aim of the research was to estimate the water needs of asparagus during the fern growth period (21 June–31 August) using the Blaney–Criddle method. The study also aimed to determine trends in changing water needs and estimate precipitation deficits. Calculations were carried out for the years 1981–2020 across four provinces in central Poland. The research indicated that water needs varied between 233 mm and 242 mm, depending on the province. Over the forty-year period, all provinces displayed an increasing trend in water needs, with a rise of 3.1 mm to 6.2 mm per decade. Between 21 June and 31 August, rainfall deficits occurred with varying intensity in all provinces during normal, medium dry and very dry years. The values of water needs and rainfall deficit, calculated as a result of the research, are of key importance in the design, construction, and management of drip irrigation systems for asparagus plantations in central Poland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Microbial-driven processes, including nitrification and denitrification closely related to soil nitrous oxide (N2O) production, are orchestrated by a network of enzymes and genes such as amoA genes from ammonia-oxidizing bacteria (AOB) and archaea (AOA), narG (nitrate reductase), nirS and nirK (nitrite reductase), and nosZ (N2O reductase). However, how climatic factors and agricultural practices could influence these genes and processes and, consequently, soil N2O emissions remain unclear. In this comprehensive review, we quantitatively assessed the effects of these factors on nitrogen processes and soil N2O emissions using mega-analysis (i.e., meta-meta-analysis). The results showed that global warming increased soil nitrification and denitrification rates, leading to an overall increase in soil N2O emissions by 159.7%. Elevated CO2 stimulated both nirK and nirS with a substantial increase in soil N2O emission by 40.6%. Nitrogen fertilization amplified NH4+-N and NO3−-N contents, promoting AOB, nirS, and nirK, and caused a 153.2% increase in soil N2O emission. The application of biochar enhanced AOA, nirS, and nosZ, ultimately reducing soil N2O emission by 15.8%. Exposure to microplastics mostly stimulated the denitrification process and increased soil N2O emissions by 140.4%. These findings provide valuable insights into the mechanistic underpinnings of nitrogen processes and the microbial regulation of soil N2O emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The projected climate change signals of a five-member high resolution ensemble, based on two global climate models (GCMs: ECHAM5 and CCCma3) and two regional climate models (RCMs: CLM and WRF) are analysed in this paper (Part II of a two part paper). In Part I the performance of the models for the control period are presented. The RCMs use a two nest procedure over Europe and Germany with a final spatial resolution of 7 km to downscale the GCM simulations for the present (1971-2000) and future A1B scenario (2021-2050) time periods. The ensemble was extended by earlier simulations with the RCM REMO (driven by ECHAM5, two realisations) at a slightly coarser resolution. The climate change signals are evaluated and tested for significance for mean values and the seasonal cycles of temperature and precipitation, as well as for the intensity distribution of precipitation and the numbers of dry days and dry periods. All GCMs project a significant warming over Europe on seasonal and annual scales and the projected warming of the GCMs is retained in both nests of the RCMs, however, with added small variations. The mean warming over Germany of all ensemble members for the fine nest is in the range of 0.8 and 1.3 K with an average of 1.1 K. For mean annual precipitation the climate change signal varies in the range of −2 to 9 % over Germany within the ensemble. Changes in the number of wet days are projected in the range of ±4 % on the annual scale for the future time period. For the probability distribution of precipitation intensity, a decrease of lower intensities and an increase of moderate and higher intensities is projected by most ensemble members. For the mean values, the results indicate that the projected temperature change signal is caused mainly by the GCM and its initial condition (realisation), with little impact from the RCM. For precipitation, in addition, the RCM affects the climate change signal significantly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Acta Silvatica et Lignaria Hungarica is the property of Sciendo and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The process of climate warming significantly affects agroclimatic resources and agricultural production. We study the agroclimatic resources and their variability on the territory of the Republic of Bashkortostan (Russia). The Bashkortostan has a high agricultural potential and holds a leading position in the country in the production of grain crops, potatoes, milk, and honey. Currently, no detailed studies have been conducted for this area to assess the effects of global climate change on agro-climatic resources. World experience shows such research becomes strategically important for regions with powerful agricultural production. We used the sums of average daily air temperatures above 0 and 10 °C, the G.T. Selyaninov hydrothermal coefficient, and the Ped aridity (humidification) index as agroclimatic indicators. We used data of long-term meteorological observations of 30 meteorological stations for the period of 1961–2020. We revealed the long-term dynamics of the agroclimatic indicators and the spatial and temporal regularities in their distribution on the territory of Bashkortostan. There is a steady increase in the sums of average daily air temperatures above 0 and 10 °C. Against this background, aridity increases, which is especially manifested in the southern parts of the Republic of Bashkortostan. We assessed the impact of agroclimatic indicators on the main types of agricultural crops in the republic. We revealed that the greatest positive impact on the yield of oilseeds, cereals, and industrial crops is made by precipitation at the beginning (r = 0.50, r = 0.44, and r = 0.52, respectively) and in the middle of the growing season (r = 0.55, r = 0.76, and r = 0.51, respectively). Temperature and precipitation during the growing season have a complex effect on cereals. This is proven by correlations with HCS and the Ped index (r = 0.45 and r = −0.56, respectively). Aridity at the beginning of the growing season affects the yield of oilseeds and potatoes. This is confirmed by correlations with the Ped index (r = −0.49 and r = −0.52, respectively). In general, the aridity of the growing season has a significant impact on the yield of cereals (r = −0.57). Negative relationships have been found between the air temperature growing season and the yield of potatoes (r = −0.50) and cereals (r = −0.53). The results of the study were compared with data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service database. We identified climate trends under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5 scenarios. These scenarios should be taken into account when developing plans for the adaptation of agriculture in the Republic of Bashkortostan to changes in the regional climate. Maximum decrease in precipitation is established for the RCP 6.0 scenario. This can have an extremely negative impact on crop yields. This problem is especially relevant for the southern part of the Republic of Bashkortostan. The information presented in the study will allow for a more effective adaptation of the agricultural sector to current and future climate changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT This paper presents an analysis of winter climate variability based on daily mean temperature and precipitation data since 1970 in the Chic-Chocs Mountain range (located in the Gaspé Peninsula, Eastern Quebec, Canada). Mountain environments are particularly sensitive to rapid climate change and are therefore good indicators of recent global warming. The main goal of this study is to demonstrate how joint probability temperature/precipitation distributions can be used to estimate winter condition changes (trends) for six meteorological stations in the study area (the altitudinal range for the stations is from 5 to 574 m). The presence and persistence of snow cover was also estimated. Previous studies have shown a lack of evidence of significant trends in snow-cover characteristics (density, depth and snow water equivalent (SWE)) from the early 1980s to the present, despite an increase in temperature over the same period. A reanalysis of these data sets in addition to the use of a combination of temperature and precipitation data categorized into four modes (warm/wet, warm/dry, cold/wet and cold/dry) was also performed. Despite this new analysis, no clear evidence of climate change could be found in the study area over the last four decades. The results revealed that patterns and trends are quite different from one station to another, but when the environment is taken into account (valley or plateau, coastal versus inland) some apparent patterns emerge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The importance of investigating regional climate changes associated with degrees of global warming is increasingly being recognized, but the majority of relevant research has been based on multimodel ensembles (MMEs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). This has left two important questions unanswered: Are there plausible futures which are not represented by the models in CMIP? And, how would regional climates evolve under enhanced global warming, beyond 4°C? In this paper, two perturbed physics ensembles (PPEs) are used to address these issues with reference to African precipitation. Examination of model versions that generate warming greater than 4°C in the twenty-first century shows that changes in African precipitation are enhanced gradually, even to high global temperatures; however, there may be nonlinearities that are not incorporated here due to limited model complexity. The range of projections from the PPEs is compared to data from phases 3 and 5 of CMIP (CMIP3 and CMIP5), revealing regional differences. This is partly the result of implausible model versions, but the PPE dataset can be justifiably constrained given its size and systematic nature, highlighting an additional advantage over MMEs. After applying constraints, the PPEs still show changes that are outside the range of CMIP, most prominently strong dry signals in west equatorial Africa and the Sahel, implying that MMEs may underestimate risks for these regions. Analysis of African precipitation changes therefore demonstrates that regional assessments that rely on CMIP3 and CMIP5 may overlook uncertainties associated with model parameterizations and pronounced warming. More systematic approaches are needed for conservative estimates of danger. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the spatial dependence of annual diurnal temperature range (DTR) trends from 1950–2004 on the annual climatology of three variables: precipitation, cloud cover, and leaf area index (LAI), by classifying the global land into various climatic regions based on the climatological annual precipitation. The regional average trends for annual minimum temperature ( T min) and DTR exhibit significant spatial correlations with the climatological values of these three variables, while such correlation for annual maximum temperature ( T max) is very weak. In general, the magnitude of the downward trend of DTR and the warming trend of T min decreases with increasing precipitation amount, cloud cover, and LAI, i.e., with stronger DTR decreasing trends over drier regions. Such spatial dependence of T min and DTR trends on the climatological precipitation possibly reflects large-scale effects of increased global greenhouse gases and aerosols (and associated changes in cloudiness, soil moisture, and water vapor) during the later half of the twentieth century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An Inconvenient Truth (AIT) has earned Al Gore an Oscar and a share of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize and has been widely acclaimed by the mass media. However, significant errors exist in the film, owing to alarmism and exaggeration. As this forum does not provide for a detailed examination of these errors, this paper will focus only on the portrayal of the hydrologic cycle by AIT--precipitation and floods, soil moisture and droughts, and storminess. AIT argues that precipitation and intense rainfalls, floods, droughts, and the total number, intensity, and duration of tropical cyclones have all increased due exclusively to anthropogenically-driven climate change; indeed, AIT paints a picture of near scientific certainty with an overwhelming bias toward catastrophe scenarios. A closer look at the science, however, reveals that the data do not support these claims and that the scientific community is divided as to what the impact of anthropogenic climate change on the hydrologic cycle will be. Thus, the film gives a false impression of both the current state of climate change and that 'the science is settled'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are the dominant rainfall producer over the United States during the warm season, causing natural disasters and severe weather every year. Global climate models have large uncertainty in projecting precipitation changes in the future climate. Here, a simple Lagrangian parcel model is used to investigate the impact of global warming on MCS initiation and growth. The single-column parcel model projects a mean precipitation decrease over the central United States and an increase to its east, in agreement with the CMIP5 model projection. It also highlights the crucial role of current climate mean-state model bias in exaggerating the change in future mean precipitation projection by 25%. As for convective population, the model captures the decreased occurrence frequency of weak to moderate convection and increased frequency of strong convection due to the increased CAPE and CIN, in agreement with convection-permitting regional simulations. Novel parameterizations of gust-front propagation speed and subsidence strength are developed as guided by cloud-resolving simulations. The multicolumn parcel model employing those parameterizations captures readily the cold pool–induced upscale growth feature. It simulates smaller mesoscale clusters over the central United States under global warming due to gust-front slowdown and subsidence strength enhancement, which are further attributed to land aridity–induced weakening of initial accumulated precipitation and strengthening of updraft speed, respectively. That said, mesoscale clusters could become bigger under more favorable conditions in future climate, including boundary layer moistening, convection lifetime lengthening, and cold pool mechanical-lifting enhancement, which require further investigations to improve mechanistic understanding of future MCS changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Some of the largest climatic changes in the Arctic have been observed in Alaska and the surrounding marginal seas. Near-surface air temperature (T2m), precipitation (P), snowfall, and sea ice changes have been previously documented, often in disparate studies. Here, we provide an updated, long-term trend analysis (1957-2021; n 5 65 years) of such parameters in ERA5, NOAA U.S. Climate Gridded Dataset (NClimGrid), NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) Alaska climate division, and composite sea ice products preceding the upcoming Fifth National Climate Assessment (NCA5) and other near-future climate reports. In the past half century, annual T2m has broadly increased across Alaska, and during winter, spring, and autumn on the North Slope and North Panhandle (T2m. 0.508C decade21). Precipitation has also increased across climate divisions and appears strongly interrelated with temperature-sea ice feedbacks on theNorth Slope, specifically with increased (decreased) open water (sea ice extent). Snowfall equivalent (SFE) has decreased in autumn and spring, perhaps aligned with a regime transition of snow to rain, while winter SFE has broadly increased across the state. Sea ice decline and melt-season lengthening also have a pronounced signal around Alaska, with the largest trends in these parameters found in the Beaufort Sea. Alaska's climatic changes are also placed in context against regional and contiguous U.S. air temperature trends and show; 50% greater warming in Alaska relative to the lower-48 states. Alaska T2m increases also exceed those of any contiguous U.S. subregion, positioning Alaska at the forefront of U.S. climate warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mt. Munkhkhairkhan is the most crucial region for understanding climate and glaciation changes in Mongolia. This study investigated the relationship between glacial area changes and the climate elements of Mt. Munkhkhairkhan in the Mongolian-Altai Mountains using a remote sensing approach, in-situ observations, the Mann–Kendall (MK) test, Innovative Trend Analysis Method (ITAM), Sen's slope estimator test, and statistical analysis. The study results showed that for the last 30 years, the annual average air temperature of Mt. Munkhkhairkhan has been slightly increasing. Total annual precipitation (mainly snow) in the mountain area decreased from 1990 to 2000, but since 2000, a significant increase in precipitation levels has appeared. For the last 30 years, the glacial area has decreased by 32% to 11.7 km2. Multiple regression results showed a strong correlation between Temperature, Precipitation, and Glaciers (Multiple R = 0.69, R2 = 0.48). Ruther indicated that Temperature (t = −2.332, p = 0.036) and Precipitation (t = −3.212, p = 0.007) were significant predictors in the model. Air temperature and precipitation explained 48 percent of the change in the glacier area, and R = 0.69 is a strong correlation. The glaciers and snow area in the study area have changed due to climate warming and precipitation changes and are located in arid and semi-arid regions of Central Asia. This study of Mt. Munkhairkhan shows that climate change significantly impacts glaciers and snow. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The response of zonal-mean precipitation minus evaporation (P 2 E) to global warming is investigated using a moist energy balance model (MEBM) with a simple Hadley cell parameterization. The MEBM accurately emulates zonal-mean P 2 E change simulated by a suite of global climate models (GCMs) under greenhouse gas forcing. The MEBM also accounts for most of the intermodel differences in GCM P 2 E change and better emulates GCM P 2 E change when compared to the "wet-gets-wetter, dry-gets-drier" thermodynamic mechanism. The intermodel spread in P 2 E change is attributed to intermodel differences in radiative feedbacks, which account for 60%-70%of the intermodel variance, with smaller contributions from radiative forcing and ocean heat uptake. Isolating the intermodel spread of feedbacks to specific regions shows that tropical feedbacks are the primary source of intermodel spread in zonal-mean P 2 E change. The ability of the MEBM to emulate GCM P 2 E change is further investigated using idealized feedback patterns. A less negative and narrowly peaked feedback pattern near the equator results in more atmospheric heating, which strengthens the Hadley cell circulation in the deep tropics through an enhanced poleward heat flux. This pattern also increases gross moist stability, which weakens the subtropical Hadley cell circulation. These two processes in unison increase P 2 E in the deep tropics, decrease P 2 E in the subtropics, and narrow the intertropical convergence zone. Additionally, a feedback pattern that produces polar-amplified warming partially reduces the poleward moisture flux by weakening the meridional temperature gradient. It is shown that changes to the Hadley cell circulation and the poleward moisture flux are crucial for understanding the pattern of GCM P 2 E change under warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Various climatic factors and their interactions affect China's snow depth alterations. However, a measure of the relative importance of climatic factors regarding the variance in snow depth is lacking. Here, we use a heretofore largest dataset, quality‐controlled daily observations from 1,665 meteorological stations, and statistical analyses to identify proxy drivers and their contributions regarding regional variability and trends in China's snow depth and snow depth‐climate relationships from 1951 to 2019. Results show that seasonal snow depth alterations are substantial in China and caused by various climatic drivers. In winter, observed positive trends in the northwest and northeast of China mainly respond to augmentation in solid precipitation and snow accumulation in fall. For the Tibetan Plateau, the negative snow depth anomaly seems to respond to the rising air temperature below the freezing point along with some secular changes in solid precipitation and shallower fall snowpacks. All these trends in winter snow depth over the northwest, northeast, and Tibetan Plateau of China account approximately for 30% of the total interannual variance in spring snow depth in these regions. In the milder central north and south of China, snow accumulation is not evident. Besides solid precipitation and rising air temperature below the freezing point, atmospheric humidity is also notable for its effect on the interannual variance in winter snow depth in these regions. In spring and fall, however, the negative effect of warming climate on snow depth becomes remarkably more important. It seems that about 13–33% (12–50%) of the total interannual variance in the widespread decrease (insignificant perturbation), except for some weak increases in the northeast region (decreases in the Tibetan Plateau), of China's spring (fall) snow depth are caused by the rising air temperature below the freezing point. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coupled climate models project robust wintertime wetting trend over midlatitude East Asia under global warming scenarios, but the projected change in precipitation shows large intermodel uncertainty over subtropical East Asia from southern China to southwestern Japan. Based on an ensemble of climate models participating in CMIP6, this study shows that the weakened southern branch westerly jet (SWJ) on the southern side of Tibetan Plateau (TP) plays a key role in suppressing subtropical East Asian precipitation. The SWJ is deflected into southwesterly wind on the southeastern side of TP, bringing ascent and precipitation to subtropical East Asia primarily through isentropic gliding. As a result of the poleward and upward shift of the planetary-scale westerly jet under global warming, the SWJ becomes weaker and it acts to suppress subtropical East Asian precipitation by weakening the southwesterly wind and ascent. The SWJ-precipitation linkage also exists on interannual time scales, but the sensitivity of precipitation to interannual SWJ variability is systematically underestimated by the models compared with observation. The combined effects of the change in SWJ strength and the sensitivity of precipitation to SWJ explain about 40% of the intermodel spread of the projected precipitation changes. Observational constraint on the SWJ--precipitation relationship amplifies the projected drying trend and narrows the intermodel spread. It shows that the regional-averaged precipitation over subtropical East Asia decreases by 3.3% per degree of warming, and the amplitude of precipitation reduction over subtropical East Asia (southern China) is about 1.4 (3.4) times the raw projection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The corresponding relationships between temperature, precipitation, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) concentration in a typical ombrotrophic peatland in Dajiuhu, Shennongjia, were quantitatively characterized by field sampling tests validated with simulation experiments. The PAH concentrations of peat cores in Dajiuhu peatland ranged from 262 to 977 ng·g−1, with a mean value of 536 ± 284 ng·g−1. PAHs were mainly composed of 2–3 ring PAHs, accounting for 31.7% ± 2.00% and 31.7% ± 5.00%, respectively. The concentration of PAHs in peat cores showed a significant decrease with increasing temperature, while the low molecular weight PAHs (LMW-PAHs) were more sensitive to temperature changes compared to the high molecular weight PAHs (HMW-PAHs). Besides, with the increase of quantity and velocity of leaching liquid, PAHs in peat were first transferred in the form of attached large-size particles and then gradually entered the aqueous phase. According to the IPCC projections of global warming, Dajiuhu peatland will release 956 ± 26.3 kg·°C−1 PAHs into gas phase during 2030–2052, and a conservative projection based on local temperature trends showed that 459 ± 12.6 kg·°C−1 PAHs will be released into gas phase by 2047 in Dajiuhu peatland. The projected release fluxes of PAHs in Dajiuhu peatland with precipitation volume and precipitation velocity are 381 ± 201 kg·100 mm−1 and 1052 ± 167 kg·min·mL−1, respectively, which are primarily from peat into particulate and aqueous phase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming is an unanimously accepted phenomenon by the international scientific community, being already highlighted by the analysis of observational data over long periods of time, with an increase in temperature of over 1 °C. Climate change in Romania is part of the global context, taking into account the regional conditions, with an increasing trend of arid summer. While the link between high temperatures, climate change and rainfall has been modeled in detail, the situation is not the same for plant water accessibility. The period of time between 1898 and the present, corresponding to the annual records of precipitation and evapotranspiration, overlapped with important political and administrative changes in the studied area, and with extensive hydro-amelioration works. The aim of the paper is to statistically follow the evolution over time of precipitation, namely of evapotranspiration measured in Western Romania, which would allow the expression of conclusions regarding the improvement directions of the water regime. In order to follow the evolution in time of these data, the interval of 1898–2019 was divided into three periods: 1898–1950, 1951–1989 and 1990–2019, respectively. The increase in temperature, especially during the vegetation period and the large number of years in which evapotranspiration quantitatively exceeds the precipitation, indicating the need for effective measures to regulate the water balance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Derechos are widespread and long‐lived straight‐line windstorms associated with fast‐moving mesoscale convective systems that cause severe life and property loss. This study investigates how the June 2012 North American derecho could unfold in the future with global warming. Convection‐permitting regional model ensemble simulations of the derecho as observed are compared with simulations under a pseudo‐global warming scenario of the future environments by the end of the 21st century following the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP5‐8.5). The control simulations can well reproduce the observed derecho features, including storm evolution, surface wind, and precipitation, except for a 2‐hr delay relative to observations. Compared to the control simulations, the derecho shrinks and decays earlier in the future environments, with much less destructive impacts on the Mid‐Atlantic coastal areas. The derecho shrinkage is attributed to lower relative humidity on both sides of the derecho propagation path under global warming, which suppresses updraft and strengthens downdraft, impeding the spatial extent of the derecho. The premature decay is due to the intensification of an isolated deep convection (IDC) event that develops ahead of the derecho. The meridional gradient of future warming strengthens the synoptic environments, enhancing convergence in a corridor of higher instability that facilitates intensification and continuous development of the IDC. By consuming energy and moisture on the derecho propagation path, the IDC hinders the derecho development in the Mid‐Atlantic coastal areas. Focusing on a single derecho, this study reveals how changes in the thermodynamic environment with warming could induce complex changes in the derecho. Plain Language Summary: Derechos are widespread and long‐lived straight‐line windstorms that cause severe life and property loss. This study investigates how the June 2012 North American derecho could unfold in the future with global warming by applying the pseudo‐global warming approach to convection‐permitting regional model simulations. The study reveals how changes in the thermodynamic environment with warming could induce complex changes in the derecho. Compared to simulations of the derecho that was observed, the derecho would shrink and decay earlier in future environments with warming. Key Points: In convection‐permitting simulations, the June 2012 North American derecho shrinks in the first half of its lifecycle under future warmingFuture warming may potentially cause the premature decay of the derecho and reduce its destructive impact in the Mid‐Atlantic coastal areasThe decay is due to strengthening of an isolated deep convection event, consuming energy and moisture and hindering the derecho development [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The uneven water resource distribution between different areas across the globe has been worsening. The area where the eastern margin of the Asian westerly jet area meets the low-altitude area of the transition zone (which has a temperate continental monsoon climate) is delicate and sensitive to climate change. An urgent issue is to determine the climate change pattern of this area in the past. On the basis of core samples of four tree species in four typical regions of this joint area, we built a standardized chronological table according to tree-ring width and reconstructed the cumulative precipitation from March to August series in the above area in the past 203–343 years. Since the reconstructed results corresponded well to climate events and drought and flooding periods in historical records, the reconstructed model was stable and reliable. The results were as follows: The precipitation in the study area from east to the west in the growth season has changed dramatically, and the period has gradually shortened. In the 19th century, there was a wet period in the high-latitude area. From the 19th century to the 1950s, the entire study area experienced a significant dry period that lasted for 20–45 years; the starting time of the dry period was gradually delayed from the west to the middle, and the wet period gradually grew shorter at an increasing rate. In the past half-century, this area experienced a significant drought period, and the drying rate was higher in the west and east regions than in the central region. In the past two centuries, the precipitation varied significantly in the study area, and the wet period played a dominant role, growing gradually shorter. The middle and west regions of the Asian westerly jet area and the high-latitude regions of the transition zone all experienced significant wetting or drying processes in the first half of the 19th century, and since then, all areas experienced significant drying processes under the influence of global warming, which may be intensified by the westerly circulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change threatens biodiversity in a range of ways, including changing animal body sizes. Despite numerous examples of size declines related to increasing temperatures, patterns of size change are not universal, suggesting that one or more primary mechanisms impacting size change are unknown. Precipitation is likely to influence the size different from and in conjunction with changes in temperature, yet tests of the interaction between these variables are rare. In this study, we show that a crossover interaction between temperature and precipitation impacts the body size of frogs as the climate warms. Using more than 3000 museum frog specimens from Borneo and climate records spanning more than 100 years, we found that frogs are larger in wet conditions than in dry conditions at cool temperatures, suggesting that resource availability determines body size at colder temperature. Conversely, frogs are larger in dry conditions than in wet conditions at warm temperatures, resulting in a crossover to desiccation resistance as the main determinant of body size as climates warm. Our results demonstrate that global warming can alter the impact of precipitation on life‐history traits. We suggest that increased attention be paid to such interactive effects of climate variables, to identify complex mechanisms driving climate‐induced size changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is one of the greatest environmental, economic and social challenges in the history of mankind and nowadays is considered as the biggest environmental problem of the world. Climate change has a significant global impact and therefore Greece has to deal with its effects as well. Agriculture has been unfavourably affected in recent years, as the current and anticipated conditions in many cases seem to be rather prohibitive for the prosperity of the cultivated crops. On the contrary, these new conditions have made it possible for new plant species previously cultivated only in subtropical regions, to thrive in Greece. Moreover, economic reasons would make it rather necessary for the agricultural industry to cultivate alternative crops, which are thoroughly analysed in the present study. Based on Heating Degree Days (HDD) Greece is divided into four climatic zones. The variations in the mean maximum, mean minimum and mean temperature in each climate zone as well as the rainfall over the last 50 years (from 1964 to 2013) are reviewed in this paper. The outcome of this research is that it is not feasible for the studied alternative crops to thrive in all climate zones or vice versa. However, some of them and particularly crops such as quinoa, maca, psyllium, chia, cassava and pecan can be cultivated in all climate zones. It has also to be noted that adequate water is necessary for almost all the examined crops in order to achieve optimal growth and yield and therefore irrigations are rather necessary for specific species and climate zones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a consensus estimate of the changes in oceanic precipitation off the coast of Europe under increasing greenhouse gas emissions. An ensemble of regional climate models (RCMs) and three gauge and satellite-derived observational precipitation datasets are compared. While the fit between the RCMs’ simulation of current climate and the observations shows the consistency of the future-climate projections, uncertainties in both the models and the measurements need to be considered to generate a consensus estimate of the potential changes. Since oceanic precipitation is one of the factors affecting the thermohaline circulation, the feedback mechanisms of the changes in the net influx of freshwater from precipitation are relevant not only for improving oceanic-atmospheric coupled models but also to ascertain the climate signal in a global warming scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Manifestations of global warming in the Arctic include amplifications of temperature increases and a general increase in precipitation. Although topography complicates the pattern of these changes in regions such as Alaska, the amplified warming and general increase in precipitation are already apparent in observational data. Changes in snow cover are complicated by the opposing effects of warming and increased precipitation. In this study, high-resolution (0.25°) outputs from simulations by the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5, were analyzed for changes in snow under stabilized global warming scenarios of 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C and 3.0 °C. Future changes in snowfall are characterized by a north–south gradient over Alaska and an east–west gradient over Eurasia. Increased snowfall is projected for northern Alaska, northern Canada and Siberia, while milder regions such as southern Alaska and Europe receive less snow in a warmer climate. Overall, the results indicate that the majority of the land area poleward of 55°N will experience a reduction in snow. The approximate threshold of global warming for a statistically significant increase in temperature over 50% of the pan-Arctic land area is 1.5 °C. The corresponding threshold for precipitation is approximately 2.0 °C. The global warming threshold for the loss of high-elevation snow in Alaska is approximately 2.0 °C. The results imply that limiting global warming to the Paris Agreement target is necessary to prevent significant changes in winter climates in Alaska and the Arctic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The Arctic Oscillation (AO) has been found in previous studies to be a major synoptic factor affecting the climate of many regions in the high and mid-latitudes. This paper demonstrates the physical process by which the AO affects the climate of the Eastern Mediterranean basin, with a focus on precipitation in Israel as a case study. It is shown that a trend of increasing AO is associated with a substantial decrease of winter precipitation from the Iberian Peninsula, though Italy, Greece, Turkey and Cyprus, as well as Lebanon, Syria and also the northern parts of Israel. Winter rain is slightly increased in the southern coast of the eastern half of the Mediterranean Sea. The immediate meteorological causes are shown to be a larger northerly component of the flow over the Mediterranean Sea, associated with a decreasing relative humidity and stability, except over the southern coast, where the air mass has the longest track over the relatively warm water. We suggest here that the observed changes in air flow that drives the precipitation trends can be explained by shifts in the AO that can be partially explained by increasing greenhouses gases. Results from the IPCC multi climate models show that the AO will continue to increase during the 21st century. This increase may lead to a continuation of the trends discussed here. The importance of the analysis provided here is in pointing out the possibility that processes that have been predicted by global warming and changes in global circulation have already started to affect precipitation and major water resources in the Mediterranean basin. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Rainfall intensity seems to be increasing nowadays due to climate change as presented in many studies of both global and regional scale. Consequently, cities worldwide are now more vulnerable to flooding. In Indonesia, increasing frequency of floods was reported for the past decades by The National Agency for Disaster Countermeasure (BNPB). To understand the rainfall changes, long-term trend evaluation over a specific area is then crucial due to the large variability of spatial and temporal rainfall distribution. This study investigates the homogeneity and trend of rainfall data from 20 stations over the Opak River basin, Yogyakarta, Indonesia. A long-term ground observation rainfall data whose period varies from 1979 to 2019 were analyzed. Non-parametric Mann – Kendall test was applied to assess the trend, while the magnitude was calculated using the Sen’s slope estimator. An increasing annual maximum of daily rainfall intensity was observed at four stations on a 0.95 confidence level based on the Mann – Kendall test, while the Sen’s slope estimator shows a positive trend at almost all stations. The trend of heavy rainfall frequency was also found to be significantly increased, with only one station showed a decreasing trend. Furthermore, this paper also described the spatial rainfall variability. Positive trend was mostly found during the rainy season, while the negative trend occurred during the dry season. This could pose a challenge for water resource management engineering and design, such as water supply systems or reservoir management. Understanding this phenomenon will benefit hydrologists in preparing future water resource engineering and management.

Tropical climates and the biodiversity associated with them have long interested natural historians. Alexander von Humboldt inspired a generation of scientists, such as Charles Darwin and Alfred Russel Wallace, to observe and study tropical ecosystems. More recently, the mid-20th century saw Theodosius Dobzhansky and Daniel Janzen lay the foundations for studying adaptation to tropical climates. Now in the 21st century, we are beginning to realize the threats posed by current and future climate change to tropical populations which, despite relatively low levels of projected warming for low-latitude regions, face potentially significant detrimental impacts. Building on the insights of researchers in decades and centuries past, improved understanding of tropical ecology, evolution and biogeography will help us to conceive how future global change will impact on biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]