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Ecuador belongs to the megadiverse countries of the world. However, the high diversity in species, ecosystems and their services are under threat by land use changes, invasive species, overexploitation, pollution and climate change. There is a need to monitor, manage, protect and improve biodiversity and ecosystem services (BES) in Ecuador; however, Ecuador is marginally represented in the international policy-science interface for the protection of BES. We analyzed 266 international peer-reviewed papers that were published between 2000 and 2020 to assess the current impact of human disturbance and climate change on BES in continental Ecuador. We found that there were more studies available on the impact of human disturbance on BES than on climate change effects. Birds represented the most studied taxon in Ecuador (70 studies), whereas the total amount of available international scientific publications for other Ecuadorian plant and animal taxa were rather low (< 34 studies) and spatially and thematically scattered. Among ecosystem services, water provision was analyzed relatively often. Our literature review revealed that there is a need to conduct more studies on impacts of human disturbance and climate change on BES. Further research is needed; particularly in the coastal hinterland, in the central Andes and in the Amazon. We suggest that the investment of time, resources and effort into the documentation, standardization, sharing, and publishing of data are key towards supporting the monitoring and maintenance of BES. [Display omitted] • Analyses of 266 papers on human and climatic impacts on Ecuadorian biodiversity • More studies available on the impact of human disturbance than on climate change • More studies on fauna than on flora; birds in particular • Studies vary in impact, scale, location, species focus, and context. • Documentation, standardization, publishing, and sharing of data needed [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many mountain regions around the world are exposed to enhanced warming when compared to their surroundings, threatening key environmental services provided by mountains. Here we investigate this effect, known as elevation-dependent warming (EDW), in the Andes of Ecuador, using observations and simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. EDW is discernible in observations of mean and maximum temperature in the Andes of Ecuador, but large uncertainties remain due to considerable data gaps in both space and time. WRF simulations of present-day (1986–2005) and future climate (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for 2041–60) reveal a very distinct EDW signal, with different rates of warming on the eastern and western slopes. This EDW effect is the combined result of multiple feedback mechanisms that operate on different spatial scales. Enhanced upper-tropospheric warming projects onto surface temperature on both sides of the Andes. In addition, changes in the zonal mean midtropospheric circulation lead to enhanced subsidence and warming over the western slopes at high elevation. The increased subsidence also induces drying, reduces cloudiness, and results in enhanced net surface radiation receipts, further contributing to stronger warming. Finally, the highest elevations are also affected by the snow-albedo feedback, due to significant reductions in snow cover by the middle of the twenty-first century. While these feedbacks are more pronounced in the high-emission scenario RCP8.5, our results indicate that high elevations in Ecuador will continue to warm at enhanced rates in the twenty-first century, regardless of emission scenario. Significance Statement: Mountains are often projected to experience stronger warming than their surrounding lowlands going forward, a phenomenon known as elevation-dependent warming (EDW), which can threaten high-altitude ecosystems and lead to accelerated glacier retreat. We investigate the mechanisms associated with EDW in the Andes of Ecuador using both observations and model simulations for the present and the future. A combination of factors amplify warming at mountain tops, including a stronger warming high in the atmosphere, reduced cloudiness, and a reduction of snow and ice at high elevations. The latter two factors also favor enhanced absorption of sunlight, which promotes warming. The degree to which this warming is enhanced at high elevations in the future depends on the greenhouse gas emission pathway. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecuador is likely to experience significant impacts associated with future changes in climate, but future projections for this region are challenging due to the complex topography and a wide range of climatic conditions. Here we use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model run at 10 km horizontal resolution over a domain encompassing all of Ecuador to investigate future changes in temperature and precipitation for the middle of the twenty-first century (2041–2070) under a low (RCP4.5) and a high (RCP8.5) emission scenario. The model was validated by running 30-year control runs for the present climate, driven both by the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and the CCSM4 General Circulation Model. Bias and different correlation coefficient metrics were employed to compare the present-day model results with gridded (CRU TS v 4.03 and CHIRPS v 2.0) and in situ meteorological observations. Detailed hydrometeorological analyses over the Andes in both space and time domains show that WRF accurately simulates temperature variability. The precipitation seasonal cycle and interannual variability are also adequately simulated, but the model shows a general dry bias over the lowlands and a significant wet bias along the eastern Andean slopes. Results from future projections show that Ecuador could warm by an additional 1–2 K by the middle of the century compared with the end of the twentieth century. This warming is highly elevation-dependent, subjecting the highest peaks of the Andes to the strongest future warming. Bias-corrected future precipitation changes document a drying trend along coastal areas in RCP4.5 and increased future precipitation along the eastern Andean slopes in both scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We conducted an extensive review of the existing literature on the culpeo to improve our understanding of its ecology, natural history and conservation, and to identify gaps in current knowledge. For resources published before 1988, we used the synthesis made by Medel and Jaksic (1988). For studies published from 1988 onwards, we carried out a literature searching in the Scopus, Web of Knowledge and Google Scholar databases, considering all of the generic names used to define the species. We found 96 scientific articles. Most of the studies focused on diet, conflicts with the species in livestock areas, and on the use of space and habitat. We found that the description of subspecies is incomplete and that subspecies' geographic distribution is not well known. There are also few published studies on genetic issues, population dynamics and conservation concerns. It is remarkable that vast regions in South America where culpeos live still lack basic information on the species. Diet studies describe a marked trend towards resource selection at the local level, which supports the view of the culpeo as a facultative trophic specialist. In addition, it has been confirmed that in the high Andes, the culpeo can behave as a top predator and that it is an important seed disperser in arid environments. There is no sufficient information to precisely assess the species' conservation status in most regions. The species has been listed as "Vulnerable" in Ecuador and Colombia. Direct persecution and habitat transformation are the most critical threats that the species faces in many countries, although other threats such as climate change could also have severe consequences for the culpeo on a global scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: Assessing climate change impacts on biodiversity is a main scientific challenge, especially in the tropics. We predicted the future of plant species and communities on the unique páramo sky islands by implementing the Spatial Explicit Species Assemblage Modelling framework. Specifically we: (a) calculated species' maximum dispersal distance; (b) modelled species' present and future distributions up to 2100; and (c) assembled models into plant communities. The final vulnerability assessment was based on a multi‐dimensional evaluation that considered the species, local plant community and sky island levels. Location: Ecuadorian super‐páramo (>4,200 m). Methods: Using species trait data, the maximum dispersal distance of 435 species was calculated. Species distribution models (SDM) were fitted to obtain current and future distribution predictions based on dispersal and bioclimatic factors. The final current assemblages and those for 2100 were achieved by stacking all probabilistic SDMs and applying the probability ranking rule. The vulnerability of each sky island was evaluated by quantifying richness and composition changes. Results: Maximum dispersal distances ranged between 0.008 m/year and 6,027 m/year, and across all scenarios, 70% of models showed a net loss in species distribution, while 9% of all species were predicted to undergo extinction in Ecuador by 2100. Local richness was estimated to decrease by 56.63% on average, and compositional changes in each sky island suggested a mean loss of 64.74% of their original species pool against a 12.97% gain. Finally, 5% of the sky island floras reconverted from high‐elevation to low‐elevation species. These numbers were usually more important for high‐elevation species and the mountains Pichincha, Ilinizas and Antisana. Conclusions: This methodological pioneer study provides novel insight into the future of páramo biodiversity. Significant losses in species distribution and changes in community richness and composition suggest drastic impacts and call for further research considering additional factors, such as land use. Finally, we recommend focusing monitoring and conservation strategies on the northern Ecuadorian sky islands as a priority. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We reconstructed the palaeoenvironmental conditions of the last ca. 8,000 years in the Tres Lagunas region of the Quimsacocha volcanic basin (ca. 3,800 m a.s.l.) in the southwestern Ecuadorian Andes. By means of a pollen and charcoal record, we analysed vegetation, fire, and climate history of this area, which is sensitive to climatic changes of both the Pacific as well as of the eastern Andes and Amazon region. Sediment deposits, pronounced increases of pollen and charcoal concentrations, and pollen taxa reflect warmer and drier conditions in the early to mid-Holocene (~8000 to 3900 cal. b.p.). During the late Holocene (2250 to −57 cal. b.p.), five warm and cold phases occurred at Quimsacocha. The most prominent cold phase possibly corresponds to the globally recognized Little Ice Age (LIA; ~600 to 100 cal. b.p.). The cold phase signal at Quimsacocha was characterized by a higher abundance of Poaceae, Isoëtes and Gentianella, which are favoured by cold and moist conditions. Frequent charcoal particles can be recorded since the early to mid-Holocene (~7600 b.p.). The high Andean tree species Polylepis underwent several phases of degradation and re-establishment in the basin, which could indicate the use of fire by pre-Columbian settlers to enhance the growth of preferred herb species. The Tres Lagunas record suggests that human populations have been influencing the environment around Quimsacocha since the last ca. 8,000 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Glassfrogs (family: Centrolenidae) represent a fantastic radiation (~150 described species) of Neotropical anurans that originated in South America and dispersed into Central America. In this study, we review the systematics of Ecuadorian glassfrogs, providing species accounts of all 60 species, including three new species described herein. For all Ecuadorian species, we provide new information on the evolution, morphology, biology, conservation, and distribution. We present a new molecular phylogeny for Centrolenidae and address cryptic diversity within the family. We employ a candidate species system and designate 24 putative new species that require further study to determine their species status. We find that, in some cases, currently recognized species lack justification; specifically, we place Centrolene gemmata and Centrolene scirtetes under the synonymy of Centrolene lynchi; C. guanacarum and C. bacata under the synonymy of Centrolene sanchezi; Cochranella phryxa under the synonymy of Cochranella resplendens; and Hyalinobatrachium ruedai under the synonymy of Hyalinobatrachium munozorum. We also find that diversification patterns are mostly congruent with allopatric speciation, facilitated by barriers to gene flow (e.g., valleys, mountains, linearity of the Andes), and that niche conservatism is a dominant feature in the family. Conservation threats are diverse, but habitat destruction and climate change are of particular concern. The most imperiled glassfrogs in Ecuador are Centrolene buckleyi, C. charapita, C. geckoidea, C. medemi, C. pipilata, Cochranella mache, Nymphargus balionotus, N. manduriacu, N. megacheirus, and N. sucre, all of which are considered Critically Endangered. Lastly, we identify priority areas for glassfrog conservation in Ecuador. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under intraspecific differentiation driven by differential climatic adaptation, it may be expected that intraspecific genetic groups occur at distinct environments. Populations occupying different niches may therefore differ in their ability to cope with climate change. Here, we addressed this hypothesis with a wild tomato, Solanum pimpinellifolium. This species is distributed from the west side of Andes to the coastal region in Peru and Ecuador and occupies a wide environmental diversity. This environmental diversity is related to the genetic structure of the species providing an ideal material to investigate the isolation by environment hypothesis. While previous hypothesis stated that S. pimpinellifolium originated from northern Peru and migrated northwards and southwards, our results support that S. pimpinellifolium originated from Ecuador and expanded to northern and southern Peru, and during this process, the niche space of S. pimpinellifolium became more associated with cold and drought. We further predicted its fate under anthropogenic climate change. According to our predictions, the northern group will maintain its current extent or even expand to the entire western region of Ecuador. In contrast, we predicted low habitat suitability for the southern group which could potentially lead to the shrinkage of its distribution. In conclusion, we revealed the distinct fates among the differentiated populations driven by environment under global warming conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change threatens the hydrological equilibrium with severe consequences for living beings. In that respect, considerable differences in drought features are expected, especially for mountain-Andean regions, which seem to be prone to climate change. Therefore, an urgent need for evaluation of such climate conditions arises; especially the effects at catchment scales, due to its implications over the hydrological services. However, to study future climate impacts at the catchment scale, the use of dynamically downscaled data in developing countries is a luxury due to the computational constraints. This study performed spatiotemporal future long-term projections of droughts in the upper part of the Paute River basin, located in the southern Andes of Ecuador. Using 10 km dynamically downscaled data from four global climate models, the standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index (SPEI) index was used for drought characterization in the base period (1981–2005) and future period (2011–2070) for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 of CMIP5 project. Fitting a generalized-extreme-value (GEV) distribution, the change ratio of the magnitude, duration, and severity between the future and present was evaluated for return periods 10, 50, and 100 years. The results show that magnitude and duration dramatically decrease in the near future for the climate scenarios under analysis; these features presented a declining effect from the near to the far future. Additionally, the severity shows a general increment with respect to the base period, which is intensified with longer return periods; however, the severity shows a decrement for specific areas in the far future of RCP 4.5 and near future of RCP 8.5. This research adds knowledge to the evaluation of droughts in complex terrain in tropical regions, where the representation of convection is the main limitation of global climate models (GCMs). The results provide useful information for decision-makers supporting mitigating measures in future decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]