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Many coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) suffer from serious model bias in the zonal gradient of sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial Atlantic. The bias of the equatorial Atlantic SST (EASST) may affect the interannual variability of the equatorial Atlantic, which in turn may influence the state of the tropical Pacific. In this paper we investigate the impact of the bias and the interannual variability of the EASST on the tropical Pacific in a CGCM. To determine the impact of the interannual variability of the EASST on the tropical Pacific, we compare a run in a fully coupled mode (CTL run) and a run in which the EASST is nudged toward the climatological monthly mean of the SST in the CTL run, but full air-sea coupling is allowed elsewhere (AT_m run). We find that, when the interannual variability of the EASST is excluded, the thermocline depth in the eastern equatorial Pacific is deepened, and the amplitude of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation is reduced by 30 % compared to the CTL run. The impact of the bias of the EASST on the tropical Pacific is investigated by comparing the AT_m run and a run in which the EASST is nudged toward the observed climatological monthly mean SST (AT_o run). It is found that, when the bias of the EASST is removed (i.e. AT_o run), the Gill-Matsuno type response to the warm SST anomalies in the western equatorial Atlantic induces low-level cyclonic anomalies in the eastern South Pacific, which leads to a deeper thermocline and colder SST in the South Pacific as compared to AT_m. The colder SST in the South Pacific reduces the precipitation along the South Pacific convergence zone. Our results of the model experiments demonstrate the importance of the EASST to the tropical Pacific climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents an evaluation of the multi-model simulations for the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in terms of their ability to simulate the ERA40 circulation types over the Euro-Atlantic region in winter season. Two classification schemes, k-means and SANDRA, have been considered to test the sensitivity of the evaluation results to the classification procedure. The assessment allows establishing different rankings attending spatial and temporal features of the circulation types. Regarding temporal characteristics, in general, all AR4 models tend to underestimate the frequency of occurrence. The best model simulating spatial characteristics is the UKMO-HadGEM1 whereas CCSM3, UKMO-HadGEM1 and CGCM3.1(T63) are the best simulating the temporal features, for both classification schemes. This result agrees with the AR4 models ranking obtained when having analysed the ability of the same AR4 models to simulate Euro-Atlantic variability modes. This study has proved the utility of applying such a synoptic climatology approach as a diagnostic tool for models' assessment. The ability of the models to properly reproduce the position of ridges and troughs and the frequency of synoptic patterns, will therefore improve our confidence in the response of models to future climate changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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To understand the three-dimensional ocean circulation patterns that have occurred in past continental geometries, it is crucial to study the role of the present-day continental geometry and surface (wind stress and buoyancy) forcing on the present-day global ocean circulation. This circulation, often referred to as the Conveyor state, is characterised by an Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) with a deep water formation at northern latitudes and the absence of such a deep water formation in the North Pacific. This MOC asymmetry is often attributed to the difference in surface freshwater flux: the Atlantic as a whole is a basin with net evaporation, while the Pacific receives net precipitation. This issue is revisited in this paper by considering the global ocean circulation on a retrograde rotating earth, computing an equilibrium state of the coupled atmosphere-ocean-land surface-sea ice model CCSM3. The Atlantic-Pacific asymmetry in surface freshwater flux is indeed reversed, but the ocean circulation pattern is not an Inverse Conveyor state (with deep water formation in the North Pacific) as there is relatively weak but intermittently strong deep water formation in the North Atlantic. Using a fully-implicit, global ocean-only model the stability properties of the Atlantic MOC on a retrograde rotating earth are also investigated, showing a similar regime of multiple equilibria as in the present-day case. These results indicate that the present-day asymmetry in surface freshwater flux is not the most important factor setting the Atlantic-Pacific salinity difference and, thereby, the asymmetry in the global MOC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the possible connection between the frequency of Atlantic hurricanes to the climate change, mainly the variation in the Atlantic Ocean surface temperature has been investigated. The correlation between the observed hurricane frequency for different categories of hurricane's intensity and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) has been examined over the Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenesis Regions (ACR). The results suggest that in general, the frequency of hurricanes have a high correlation with SST. In particular, the frequency of extreme hurricanes with Category 5 intensity has the highest correlation coefficient (R =0.82). In overall, the analyses in this work demonstrates the influence of the climate change condition on the Atlantic hurricanes and suggest a strong correlation between the frequency of extreme hurricanes and SST in the ACR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Although considerable progress towards reducing tropical climate biases in the tropical Pacific has been made in many current-generation of climate models over the past decades, reducing large biases and maintaining good agreement with the observations in the tropical Atlantic is still a major challenge and this deficiency may seriously degrade the credibility of the models in their simulation and projection of future climate change in the Atlantic sector. In this paper, we show that the bias in the eastern equatorial Atlantic has a major effect on sea-surface temperature (SST) response to a rapid change in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). By comparing identical water hosing experiments conducted with two different coupled general circulation models, we dissect oceanic mechanisms underlying the difference in models'' SST response. The results show that the different SST response is plausibly attributed to systematic differences in the simulated tropical Atlantic ocean circulation. Therefore, in order to accurately simulate past abrupt climate changes and project future changes, the bias in climate models must be reduced. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Human actions have caused the fragmentation of natural vegetation, habitat loss and climate change. The Cerrado, considered one of the global hotspots of diversity, has suffered great habitat loss due to these factors, which has been aggravated by the agricultural expansion that took place during the last 60 years. In this context, we chose species of the genus Eugenia L. (Myrtaceae) occurring in the Brazilian Cerrado to describe richness patterns and range loss, and determine conservation priorities for the Cerrado. Ecological niche models (ENMs) were applied to calculate the geographical range of each species in the past (Last Glacial Maximum – LGM, 21 000 years ago), present (PIP, representing current climatic conditions – 1760 years ago) and future (near future – NF, 2080–2100). These results were combined to calculate the richness of the group and also to estimate the range loss of these species in the future. Moreover, we evaluated the irreplaceability of areas for species conservation, aiming to maximize the biotic stability of Eugenia species. Our results showed that the highest species richness in the past was found in the southwestern region of the Cerrado and, currently, the richest regions are found in the central and southeastern areas. However, in the future, we predict a shift of the greatest values of richness towards the southeastern region, an area currently occupied by the Atlantic forest. Although areas with high conservation priorities were found scattered across the biome, this shift is worrisome due to the high fragmentation rate and intensive human occupation thoughout the Atlantic region. Thus, conservation efforts should focus on areas found within these limits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atlantic water (AW) carries large amounts of salt, oceanic heat, and biological richness into the Arctic Ocean. The inflow of AW has a twobranch structure via the West Spitsbergen Current (WSC) in the Fram Strait and the Barents Sea Opening (BSO), and the impact of AW on the Arctic Ocean ecosystem depends on the entrance route. Using data collected during the summers of 2001-2014, the zooplankton standing stock and community structure were studied in these two branches. Generally, there was a higher abundance and biomass of Calanus finmarchicus in the BSO than in the WSC, where Oithona spp. numerically dominated. The observed AW temperature and volume flux modifications measurably affected zooplankton variability, with additional effects likely related to diverse contributions of advected and local zooplankton production. During the study period, the AW temperature in both branches increased noticeably but in an oscillating manner. This gradual change manifested as C. finmarchicus forming an increasing proportion of the biomass. The high abundances of Oithona spp. (predominantly O. similis) and C. finmarchicus were attributed to warm AW temperature anomalies. During the warm event in 2011, predomination of young copepodids of C. finmarchicus in the WSC was observed, which represented probably the second generation of the species, reported from this region for the first time. The obtained results show the effects of warming on the zooplankton community transported with the Atlantic water, before they enter the Arctic Ocean. In practical terms, the findings can be used to construct and tune the plankton components of ecosystem models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Knowledge of how the frequency and intensity of extreme events are affected by climate variability will contribute to answering questions related to drought and water availability that are important in water resources management. A tool titled the "International Center for Integrated Water Resources Management-Regional Analysis of Frequency Tool" (ICI-RAFT), which includes a database of several climate indices, was developed to accomplish this using rainfall observations on the ground. The method used was applied to rainfall obtained from 20 rain gauges in western central Argentina and hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean during the respective active seasons. The global climate index that was found to have the greatest impact in both cases was the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which is the focus of the current study. Specifically, MJO activity over central Africa (MJO9) using a lag of 4 months and the western Indian Ocean (MJO10) using zero lag had the greatest influences, respectively. It was found that knowledge of the value of the MJO at these locations allows the prediction of below- or above-average rainfall or hurricane conditions for the current season and even allows a more precise quantitative estimate of this activity to be made. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Guiana Basin over the last 140 ka were obtained by measuring the C37 alkenone unsaturation index U37k' in the sediment core MD03-2616 (7 °N, 53 °W). The resulting data set is unique in the western tropical Atlantic region for this period. The SSTs range from 25.1 to 28.9 °C, i.e. glacial--interglacial amplitude of 3.8 °C, which is in the range of change of other tropical areas. During the last two interglacial stages (marine isotope stages; MIS1 and MIS5e) and warm long interstadials (MIS5d-a), a rapid transmission of climate variability from Arctic--tropical latitudes is recorded. During these periods, the MD03-2616 SSTs show a conspicuous parallelism with temperature changes observed in Greenland and SST records of North Atlantic mid-latitude cores (Iberian Margin 38 °N, Martrat et al., 2007). The last deglaciation in the Guiana Basin is particularly revealing. MIS2 stands out as the coldest period of the interval analysed. The events recorded in Guiana parallel northern latitude events such as the Bølling--Allerød warming and the Younger Dryas cooling which ensued. These oscillations were previously documented in the δ18O of the Sajama tropical ice core (Bolivia) and are present in Guiana, with rates of ca. 6 °C ka-1 and changes of over 2 °C. During the glacial interval, significant abrupt variability is observed, e.g. oscillations of 0.5-1.2 °C during MIS3, which is about 30% of the maximum glacial--interglacial SST change. In the MD03-2616 record, it is possible to unambiguously identify either the Dansgaard--Oeschger oscillations described in northern latitudes or the SST drops associated with the Heinrich events characteristic of North Atlantic records. Although these events form the background of the climate variability observed, what truly shapes SSTs in the Guiana Basin is a long-term tropical response to precessional changes, which is modulated in the opposite way to Northern Hemisphere variability. This lack of synchrony is consistent with other tropical records in locations to the north or south of the Guiana Basin and evidences an Arctic--tropical decoupling when a substantial reduction in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) takes place. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main source of sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the Tropical Atlantic at interannual time scales is the Equatorial Mode or Atlantic El Niño. It has been shown to affect the adjacent continents and also remote regions, leading to a weakened Indian Monsoon and promoting La Niña-type anomalies over the Pacific. However, its effects in a warmer climate are unknown. This work analyses the impact of the Equatorial Mode at the end of the twenty first century by means of sensitivity experiments with an atmosphere general circulation model. The prescribed boundary conditions for the future climate are based on the outputs from models participating in the coupled model intercomparison project-phase V. Our results suggest that even if the characteristics of the Equatorial Mode at the end of the twenty first century remained equal to those of the twentieth century, there will be an eastward shift of the main rainfall positive anomalies in the Tropical Atlantic and a weakening of the negative rainfall anomalies over the Asian monsoon due to the change in climatological SSTs. We also show that extratropical surface temperature anomalies over land related to the mode will change in regions like Southwestern Europe, East Australia, Asia or North America due to the eastward shift of the sea level pressure systems and related surface winds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern tropical Atlantic are crucial for climate variability within the tropical belt. Despite this importance, state-of-the-art climate models show a large SST warm bias in this region. Knowledge about the seasonal mixed layer (ML) heat budget is a prerequisite for understanding SST mean state and its variability. Within this study all contributions to the seasonal ML heat budget are estimated at four locations within the Atlantic cold tongue (ACT) that are representative for the western (0°N, 23°W), central (0°N, 10°W) and eastern (0°N, 0°E) equatorial as well as the southern (10°S, 10°W) ACT. To estimate the contribution of the diapycnal heat flux due to turbulence an extensive data set of microstructure observations collected during ten research cruises between 2005 and 2012 is analyzed. The results for the equatorial ACT indicate that with the inclusion of the diapycnal heat flux the seasonal ML heat budget is balanced. Within the equatorial region, the diapycnal heat flux is essential for the development of the ACT. It dominates over all other cooling terms in the central and eastern equatorial ACT, while it is of similar size as the zonal advection in the western equatorial ACT. In contrast, the SST evolution in the southern ACT region can be explained entirely by air-sea heat fluxes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The vertical wind shear over the tropical Atlantic Ocean and its relationship with ENSO are analyzed in the superparameterized Community Climate System Model, version 4 (SP-CCSM4) and in the conventional CCSM4. The climatology of vertical wind shear over the tropical Atlantic and the ENSO-shear relationship are well simulated in the control runs of SP-CCSM4 and CCSM4. However, because of different representations of cloud processes, in a warmer climate such as the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario, SP-CCSM4 projects increased mean westerlies at 200 hPa during July through October (JASO), whereas CCSM4 projects decreased mean westerlies at 200 hPa over the equatorial Atlantic. The different changes in the upper-level wind further contribute to different projection of JASO mean vertical wind shear over the equatorial Atlantic. In the RCP8.5 scenario, when excluding the linear trend, projection of the ENSO-shear relationships by SP-CCSM4 retains similar features as in the observed current climate, whereas the ENSO-shear relationship projected by CCSM4 indicates an increase in the vertical wind shear dominating the tropical Atlantic during El Niño events. The difference in projection of ENSO-shear relationship is, to a certain extent, related to the different response of the tropical Atlantic SST to ENSO. Analysis of the climate change projection of Walker circulation, cloud cover, and convective activity illustrates that superparameterization simulates a stronger suppression of African convection than the conventional parameterization of moist processes. The weak convective activity diminishes the divergent wind associated with the vertical motion, which contributes to increased westerlies projected in SP-CCSM4. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A multi-model analysis of Atlantic multidecadal variability is performed with the following aims: to investigate the similarities to observations; to assess the strength and relative importance of the different elements of the mechanism proposed by Delworth et al. (J Clim 6:1993-2011, 1993) (hereafter D93) among coupled general circulation models (CGCMs); and to relate model differences to mean systematic error. The analysis is performed with long control simulations from ten CGCMs, with lengths ranging between 500 and 3600 years. In most models the variations of sea surface temperature (SST) averaged over North Atlantic show considerable power on multidecadal time scales, but with different periodicity. The SST variations are largest in the mid-latitude region, consistent with the short instrumental record. Despite large differences in model configurations, we find quite some consistency among the models in terms of processes. In eight of the ten models the mid-latitude SST variations are significantly correlated with fluctuations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), suggesting a link to northward heat transport changes. Consistent with this link, the three models with the weakest AMOC have the largest cold SST bias in the North Atlantic. There is no linear relationship on decadal timescales between AMOC and North Atlantic Oscillation in the models. Analysis of the key elements of the D93 mechanisms revealed the following: Most models present strong evidence that high-latitude winter mixing precede AMOC changes. However, the regions of wintertime convection differ among models. In most models salinity-induced density anomalies in the convective region tend to lead AMOC, while temperature-induced density anomalies lead AMOC only in one model. However, analysis shows that salinity may play an overly important role in most models, because of cold temperature biases in their relevant convective regions. In most models subpolar gyre variations tend to lead AMOC changes, and this relation is strong in more than half of the models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the main sources of uncertainty in estimating climate projections affected by global warming is the choice of the global climate model (GCM). The aim of this study is to evaluate the skill of GCMs from CMIP3 and CMIP5 databases in the north-east Atlantic Ocean region. It is well known that the seasonal and interannual variability of surface inland variables (e.g. precipitation and snow) and ocean variables (e.g. wave height and storm surge) are linked to the atmospheric circulation patterns. Thus, an automatic synoptic classification, based on weather types, has been used to assess whether GCMs are able to reproduce spatial patterns and climate variability. Three important factors have been analyzed: the skill of GCMs to reproduce the synoptic situations, the skill of GCMs to reproduce the historical inter-annual variability and the consistency of GCMs experiments during twenty-first century projections. The results of this analysis indicate that the most skilled GCMs in the study region are UKMO-HadGEM2, ECHAM5/MPI-OM and MIROC3.2(hires) for CMIP3 scenarios and ACCESS1.0, EC-EARTH, HadGEM2-CC, HadGEM2-ES and CMCC-CM for CMIP5 scenarios. These models are therefore recommended for the estimation of future regional multi-model projections of surface variables driven by the atmospheric circulation in the north-east Atlantic Ocean region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Bay of Biscay, located in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean, is exposed to energetic waves coming from the open ocean that have crucial effects on the coast. Knowledge of the wave climate and trends in this region are critical to better understand the last decade's evolution of coastal hazards and morphology and to anticipate their potential future changes. This study aims to characterize the long-term trends of the present wave climate over the second half of the twentieth century in the Bay of Biscay through a robust and homogeneous intercomparison of five-wave datasets (Corrected ERA-40 (C-ERA-40), ECMWF Reanalysis Interim (ERA-Interim), Bay Of Biscay Wave Atlas (BOBWA-10kH), ANEMOC, and Bertin and Dodet )). The comparison of the quality of the datasets against offshore and nearshore measurements reveals that at offshore locations, global reanalyses slightly underestimate wave heights, while regional hindcasts overestimate wave heights, especially for the highest quantiles. At coastal locations, BOBWA-10kH is the dataset that compares the best with observations. Concerning long time-scale features, the comparison highlights that the main significant trends are similarly present in the five datasets, especially during summer for which there is an increase of significant wave heights and mean wave periods (up to +15 cm and +0.6 s over the period 1970-2001) as well as a southerly shift of wave directions (around −0.4° year). Over the same period, an increase of high quantiles of wave heights during the autumn season (around 3 cm year for 90th quantile of significant wave heights (SWH)) is also apparent. During winter, significant trends are much lower than during summer and autumn despite a slight increase of wave heights and periods during 1958-2001. These trends can be related to modifications in the wave-type occurrence. Finally, the trends common to the five datasets are discussed by analyzing the similarities with centennial trends issued from longer time-scale studies and exploring the various factors that could explain them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is evidence that the observed changes in winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) drive a significant portion of Atlantic Multi Decadal Variability (AMV). However, whether the observed decadal NAO changes can be forced by the ocean is controversial. There is also evidence that artificially imposed multi-decadal stratospheric changes can impact the troposphere in winter. But the origins of such stratospheric changes are still unclear, especially in early to mid winter, where the radiative ozone-impact is negligible. Here we show, through observational analysis and atmospheric model experiments, that large-scale Atlantic warming associated with AMV drives high-latitude precursory stratospheric warming in early to mid winter that propagates downward resulting in a negative tropospheric NAO in late winter. The mechanism involves stratosphere/troposphere dynamical coupling, and can be simulated to a large extent, but only with a stratosphere resolving model (i.e., high-top). Further analysis shows that this precursory stratospheric response can be explained by the shift of the daily extremes toward more major stratospheric warming events. This shift cannot be simulated with the atmospheric (low-top) model configuration that poorly resolves the stratosphere and implements a sponge layer in upper model levels. While the potential role of the stratosphere in multi-decadal NAO and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation changes has been recognised, our results show that the stratosphere is an essential element of extra-tropical atmospheric response to ocean variability. Our findings suggest that the use of stratosphere resolving models should improve the simulation, prediction, and projection of extra-tropical climate, and lead to a better understanding of natural and anthropogenic climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Existing multi-proxy climate reconstruction methods assume the suitably transformed proxy time series are linearly related to the target climate variable, which is likely a simplifying assumption for many proxy records. Furthermore, with a single exception, these methods face problems with varying temporal resolutions of the proxy data. Here we introduce a new reconstruction method that uses the ordering of all pairs of proxy observations within each record to arrive at a consensus time series that best agrees with all proxy records. The resulting unitless composite time series is subsequently calibrated to the instrumental record to provide an estimate of past climate. By considering only pairwise comparisons, this method, which we call PaiCo, facilitates the inclusion of records with differing temporal resolutions, and relaxes the assumption of linearity to the more general assumption of a monotonically increasing relationship between each proxy series and the target climate variable. We apply PaiCo to a newly assembled collection of high-quality proxy data to reconstruct the mean temperature of the Northernmost Atlantic region, which we call Arctic Atlantic, over the last 2,000 years. The Arctic Atlantic is a dynamically important region known to feature substantial temperature variability over recent millennia, and PaiCo allows for a more thorough investigation of the Arctic Atlantic regional climate as we include a diverse array of terrestrial and marine proxies with annual to multidecadal temporal resolutions. Comparisons of the PaiCo reconstruction to recent reconstructions covering larger areas indicate greater climatic variability in the Arctic Atlantic than for the Arctic as a whole. The Arctic Atlantic reconstruction features temperatures during the Roman Warm Period and Medieval Climate Anomaly that are comparable or even warmer than those of the twentieth century, and coldest temperatures in the middle of the nineteenth century, just prior to the onset of the recent warming trend. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The response of the global climate system to atmospheric CO2 concentration increase in time is scrutinized employing the Brazilian Earth System Model Ocean-Atmosphere version 2.3 (BESM-OA2.3). Through the achievement of over 2000 yr of coupled model integrations in ensemble mode, it is shown that the model simulates the signal of recent changes of global climate trends, depicting a steady atmospheric and oceanic temperature increase and corresponding marine ice retreat. The model simulations encompass the time period from 1960 to 2105, following the phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) protocol. Notwithstanding the accurate reproduction of large-scale ocean-atmosphere coupled phenomena, like the ENSO phenomena over the equatorial Pacific and the interhemispheric gradient mode over the tropical Atlantic, the BESM-OA2.3 coupled model shows systematic errors on sea surface temperature and precipitation that resemble those of other global coupled climate models. Yet, the simulations demonstrate the model's potential to contribute to the international efforts on global climate change research, sparking interest in global climate change research within the Brazilian climate modeling community, constituting a building block of the Brazilian Framework for Global Climate Change Research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effects of diking on the photosynthetic rate, gross glucose production, biomass, and nutrient levels of the black mangrove Avicennia germinans L., were investigated during the major dry, the major wet and the intermediate season in completely diked mangrove areas, and compared to partially diked and non-diked biotopes. In the major dry and major wet seasons, the photosynthetic rate and gross glucose production were two to five times lower in the completely diked sites compared to the partially diked and non-diked habitats. The average dry weights of branches, flowers and leaves did not differ significantly between sites. The same held true for propagules from the major dry and major wet season. However, propagules from the transition period collected in the non-diked and partially diked biotopes yielded appreciable amounts of dry matter, while plants in the completely diked forests did not carry any propagules. No statistically significant differences were found among nutrient content in the leaves of plants from the different habitats. Our results suggest black mangrove growing in diked habitats may suffer a certain degree of environmental stress, which may affect important biological processes, such as photosynthesis, gross glucose production, and propagule formation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An analysis of the 22-yr ozone (O3) series (1988-2009) at the subtropical high mountain Izaña station (IZO; 2373m a.s.l.), representative of free troposphere (FT) conditions, is presented. Diurnal and seasonal O3 variations as well as the O3 trend (0.19 ± 0.05% yr-1 or 0.09 ppbvyr-1), are assessed. A climatology of O3 transport pathways using backward trajectories shows that higher O3 values are associated with air masses travelling above 4 km altitude from North America and North Atlantic Ocean, while low O3 is transported from the Saharan continental boundary layer (CBL). O3 data have been compared with PM10, 210Pb, 7Be, potential vorticity (PV) and carbon monoxide (CO). A clear negative logarithmic relationship was observed between PM10 and surface O3 for all seasons. A similar relationship was found between O3 and 210Pb. The highest daily O3 values (90th percentile) are observed in spring and in the first half of summer time. A positive correlation between O3 and PV, and between O3 and 7Be is found throughout the year, indicating that relatively high surface O3 values at IZO originate from the middle and upper troposphere. We find a good correlation between O3 and CO in winter, supporting the hypothesis of long-range transport of photochemically generated O3 from North America. Aged air masses, in combination with sporadic inputs from the upper troposphere, are observed in spring, summer and autumn. In summer time high O3 values seem to be the result of stratosphere-to-troposphere (STT) exchange processes in regions neighbouring the Canary Islands. Since 1995-1996, the North Atlantic Oscillation has changed from a predominantly high positive phase to alternating between negative, neutral or positive phases. This change results in an increased flow of the westerlies in the mid-latitude and subtropical North Atlantic, thus favouring the transport of O3 and its precursors from North America, and a higher frequency of storms over North Atlantic, with a likely higher incidence of STT processes in mid-latitudes. These processes lead to an increase of tropospheric O3 in the subtropical North Atlantic region after 1996 that has been re- flected in surface O3 records at IZO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The influence of changes in surface wind-stress on the properties (amplitude and period) and domain of existence of thermohaline millennial oscillations is studied by means of a coupled model of intermediate complexity set up in an idealized spherical sector geometry of the Atlantic basin. Using the atmospheric CO concentration as the control parameter, bifurcation diagrams of the model are built to show that the influence of wind-stress changes on glacial abrupt variability is threefold. First, millennial-scale oscillations are significantly amplified through wind-feedback-induced changes in both northern sea ice export and oceanic heat transport. Changes in surface wind-stress more than double the amplitude of the strong warming events that punctuate glacial abrupt variability obtained under prescribed winds in the model. Second, the average duration of both stadials and interstadials is significantly lengthened and the temporal structure of observed variability is better captured under interactive winds. Third, the generation of millennial-scale oscillations is shown to occur for significantly colder climates when wind-stress feedback is enabled. This behaviour results from the strengthening of the negative temperature-advection feedback associated with stronger northward oceanic heat transport under interactive winds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Results are presented from experiments performed with the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4) for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). These include multiple ensemble members of twentieth-century climate with anthropogenic and natural forcings as well as single-forcing runs, sensitivity experiments with sulfate aerosol forcing, twenty-first-century representative concentration pathway (RCP) mitigation scenarios, and extensions for those scenarios beyond 2100-2300. Equilibrium climate sensitivity of CCSM4 is 3.20°C, and the transient climate response is 1.73°C. Global surface temperatures averaged for the last 20 years of the twenty-first century compared to the 1986-2005 reference period for six-member ensembles from CCSM4 are +0.85°, +1.64°, +2.09°, and +3.53°C for RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5, respectively. The ocean meridional overturning circulation (MOC) in the Atlantic, which weakens during the twentieth century in the model, nearly recovers to early twentieth-century values in RCP2.6, partially recovers in RCP4.5 and RCP6, and does not recover by 2100 in RCP8.5. Heat wave intensity is projected to increase almost everywhere in CCSM4 in a future warmer climate, with the magnitude of the increase proportional to the forcing. Precipitation intensity is also projected to increase, with dry days increasing in most subtropical areas. For future climate, there is almost no summer sea ice left in the Arctic in the high RCP8.5 scenario by 2100, but in the low RCP2.6 scenario there is substantial sea ice remaining in summer at the end of the century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in the global water cycle are expected as a result of anthropogenic climate change, but large uncertainties exist in how these changes will be manifest regionally. This is especially the case over the tropical oceans, where observed estimates of precipitation and evaporation disagree considerably. An alternative approach is to examine changes in near-surface salinity. Datasets of observed tropical Pacific and Atlantic near-surface salinity combined with climate model simulations are used to assess the possible causes and significance of salinity changes over the late twentieth century. Two different detection methodologies are then applied to evaluate the extent to which observed large-scale changes in near-surface salinity can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change. Basin-averaged observed changes are shown to enhance salinity geographical contrasts between the two basins: the Pacific is getting fresher and the Atlantic saltier. While the observed Pacific and interbasin-averaged salinity changes exceed the range of internal variability provided from control climate simulations, Atlantic changes are within the model estimates. Spatial patterns of salinity change, including a fresher western Pacific warm pool and a saltier subtropical North Atlantic, are not consistent with internal climate variability. They are similar to anthropogenic response patterns obtained from transient twentieth- and twenty-first-century integrations, therefore suggesting a discernible human influence on the late twentieth-century evolution of the tropical marine water cycle. Changes in the tropical and midlatitudes Atlantic salinity levels are not found to be significant compared to internal variability. Implications of the results for understanding of the recent and future marine tropical water cycle changes are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and associated oceanic and atmospheric fields on decadal time scales in the Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3) at T42 resolution is quantified with a 700-yr control run and two 40-member 'perfect model' climate change experiments. After taking into account both the mean and spread about the mean of the forecast distributions and allowing for the possibility of time-evolving modes, the natural variability of the AMOC is found to be predictable for about a decade; beyond that range the forced predictability resulting from greenhouse gas forcing becomes dominant. The upper 500-m temperature in the North Atlantic is even more predictable than the AMOC by several years. This predictability is associated with subsurface and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies that propagate in an anticlockwise direction along the subpolar gyre and tend to be prominent during the 10 yr following peaks in the amplitude of AMOC anomalies. Predictability in the North Atlantic SST mainly resides in the ensemble mean signals after three to four forecast years. Analysis suggests that in the CCSM3 the subpolar gyre SST anomalies associated with the AMOC variability can influence the atmosphere and produce surface climate predictability that goes beyond the ENSO time scale. However, the resulting initial-value predictability in the atmosphere is very weak. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The long-term variability of marine turtle populations remains poorly understood, limiting science and management. Here we use basin-scale climate indices and regional surface temperatures to estimate loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) nesting at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Borrowing from fisheries research, our models investigate how oceanographic processes influence juvenile recruitment and regulate population dynamics. This novel approach finds local populations in the North Pacific and Northwest Atlantic are regionally synchronized and strongly correlated to ocean conditions-such that climate models alone explain up to 88% of the observed changes over the past several decades. In addition to its performance, climate-based modeling also provides mechanistic forecasts of historical and future population changes. Hindcasts in both regions indicate climatic conditions may have been a factor in recent declines, but future forecasts are mixed. Available climatic data suggests the Pacific population will be significantly reduced by 2040, but indicates the Atlantic population may increase substantially. These results do not exonerate anthropogenic impacts, but highlight the significance of bottom-up oceanographic processes to marine organisms. Future studies should consider environmental baselines in assessments of marine turtle population variability and persistence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Here we re-examine the official Atlantic basin tropical cyclone (hurricane) database HURDAT (1851-2008) and quantify differences between wind speed distributions in the early historical (1851-1943) record and more recent observations. Analyses were performed at three different geographical levels: for all six-hourly track segments of all Atlantic basin events, all segments of all events that crossed the US mainland, and US landfalling segments alone. At all three geographical levels of study, distributions of windspeeds over the last two, four and six decades display negligible dispersion or systematic change over time. On the other hand and relative to wind speed frequencies for subsequent years, the 1851-1943 record has a marked and statistically significant over-representation of wind speeds largely corresponding to Saffir-Simpson Categories 1 and 2 and underrepresentation of Categories 4 and 5 events; importantly, no single Category 5 event is recorded prior to 1924. The stability of the distribution of windspeeds at landfall over the last six decades, the dataset in which we can have most confidence, suggests that the differences in the earlier record are most likely explained by well-known measurement and observational deficiencies. Moreover by disaggregating the Power Dissipation Index (PDI), we demonstrate that the upward trend in Atlantic basin PDI since 1970s does not imply stronger and longer duration Category 5 windspeeds despite a warming climate. These results have implications for hurricane catastrophe loss modeling for the insurance industry and long-term trend analyses of the historical wind speed record, especially those related to the attribution of the role of Global Climate Change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atlantic tropical cyclone activity, as measured by annual storm counts, reached anomalous levels over the past decade. The short nature of the historical record and potential issues with its reliability in earlier decades, however, has prompted an ongoing debate regarding the reality and significance of the recent rise. Here we place recent activity in a longer-term context by comparing two independent estimates of tropical cyclone activity over the past 1,500 years. The first estimate is based on a composite of regional sedimentary evidence of landfalling hurricanes, while the second estimate uses a previously published statistical model of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity driven by proxy reconstructions of past climate changes. Both approaches yield consistent evidence of a peak in Atlantic tropical cyclone activity during medieval times (around ad 1000) followed by a subsequent lull in activity. The statistical model indicates that the medieval peak, which rivals or even exceeds (within uncertainties) recent levels of activity, results from the reinforcing effects of La-Niña-like climate conditions and relative tropical Atlantic warmth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]