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Three-River-Source (TRS) National Park stands as one of China's earliest established national parks, dedicated to significant ecological responsibilities that include conserving soil and water resources in the Tibetan Plateau region. Research on climate change's influence on the TRS region's grasslands is of great significance in our efforts to comprehend and conserve the grassland ecosystem. The most effective random forest (RF) model was chosen to invert the aboveground biomass (AGB) of grassland in the previous 6 years (2015-2020) and predict the grassland AGB in the following 20 years (2021-2040) by comparing linear regression and multivariate nonlinear regression models such as RF, support vector machine, decision tree, and artificial neural network. A Theil-Sen median trend analysis and a Mann-Kendal test were then used to examine the trends of grassland AGB. The results showed that (1) RF outperformed other models in estimating grassland AGB, with a test set decision coefficient of multiple determination (R²) of 0.722, a root mean square error of 42.596 g/m², and a mean absolute error of 35.619 g/m²; (2) over 6 years, the grassland AGB in TRS National Park had a spatial trend of a steady rise from the northwest to the southeast. The average annual grassland AGB was 247.333 g/m², with averages of 44.836 g/m² , 92.601 g/m² , and 120.217 g/m² in the Yangtze River, Yellow River, and Lancang River source parks respectively. The trend of the grassland AGB was primarily stabilized and slightly recovered, with a small portion of the slightly deteriorated areas; (3) climate change significantly affected grassland AGB, and when temperature and precipitation conditions were adequate, grassland AGB values increased with temperature and precipitation. In the scenarios of ssp119, ssp245, and ssp585, grassland AGB is projected to exhibit a dynamic upward trend over the next 20 years. Global warming is expected to boost grassland AGB. Comprehensive measures are essential to maintain grassland health and ensure a positive impact on global carbon and ecological balance. The study's findings hold great importance for the ecological security of the TRS region and contribute to our global understanding of sustainable grassland development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main portion of Tibetan Plateau has experienced statistically significant warming over the past 50 years, especially in cold seasons. This paper aims to identify and characterize the dynamics of inland lakes that located in the hinterland of Tibetan Plateau responding to climate change. We compared satellite imageries in late 1970s and early 1990s with recent to inventory and track changes in lakes after three decades of rising temperatures in the region. It showed warm and dry trend in climate with significant accelerated increasing annual mean temperature over the last 30 years, however, decreasing periodically annual precipitation and no obvious trend in potential evapotranspiration during the same period. Our analysis indicated widespread declines in inland lake's abundance and area in the whole origin of the Yellow River and southeastern origin of the Yangtze River. In contrast, the western and northern origin of the Yangtze River revealed completely reverse change. The regional lake surface area decreased by 11,499 ha or 1.72% from the late 1970s to the early 1990s, and increased by 6,866 ha or 1.04% from the early 1990s to 2004. Shrinking inland lakes may become a common feature in the discontinuous permafrost regions as a consequence of warming climate and thawing permafrost. Furthermore, obvious expanding were found in continuous permafrost regions due to climate warming and glacier retreating. The results may provide information for the scientific recognition of the responding events to the climate change recorded by the inland lakes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many drainage basins adjacent to the upper Tsangpo Valley on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau are pervasively gullied. These gullies expose a stratigraphic record alternating between slow aggradation and stability (i.e., soil development) for much of the Quaternary, suggesting that gullying is recent and un precedented within at least the past 10--100 k.y. In this paper, we date the initiation of gullying at five sites in the region using optically stimulated luminescence (OSL). We also test alternative hypotheses for gully initiation using numerical landform evolution modeling. OSL ages constrain the initiation of gullying to be mid-to-late Holocene in age. This period coincides with the onset of pastoralism in the upper Tsangpo Valley. Numerical modeling suggests that a reduction in vegetation density during the colder, drier conditions of Pleistocene glacial intervals did not trigger gullying because the reduction in vegetation density and hence rates of colluvial deposition in valleys coincided with an unusually dry period less capable of significant fluvial erosion from valleys. As such, low-order valleys most likely did not incise prior to the mid-to-late Holocene because an approximate balance was maintained between colluvial deposition and fluvial erosion. Vegetation changes associated with the onset of pastoralism, however, may have triggered gullying because such changes lowered the rate of colluvial deposition in valleys and/or increased the rate of fluvial erosion in valleys. The results of this paper provide insight into the ways in which drainage basins respond to climatic and anthropogenic perturbations in semiarid climates of moderate relief and underscore the dramatic landscape responses that can occur when geomorphic thresholds are crossed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Tibetan Plateau is the youngest and highest plateau on Earth, and its elevation reaches one-third of the height of the troposphere, with profound dynamic and thermal effects on atmospheric circulation and climate. The uplift of the Tibetan Plateau was an important factor of global climate change during the late Cenozoic and strongly influenced the development of the Asian monsoon system. However, there have been heated debates about the history and process of Tibetan Plateau uplift, especially the paleo-altimetry in different geological ages. Here we report a well-preserved skeleton of a 4.6 million-y-old three-toed horse (Hipparion zandaense) from the Zanda Basin, southwestern Tibet. Morphological features indicate that H. zandaense was a cursorial horse that lived in alpine steppe habitats. Because this open landscape would be situated above the timberline on the steep southern margin of the Tibetan Plateau, the elevation of the Zanda Basin at 4.6 Ma was estimated to be ~4,000 m above sea level using an adjustment to the paleo-temperature in the middle Pliocene, as well as comparison with modern vegetation vertical zones. Thus, we conclude that the southwestern Tibetan Plateau achieved the present-day elevation in the mid-Pliocene. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is well known that climate change alters abiotic factors (temperature and water availability) that directly affect ecosystem properties. However, less is known about the indirect impacts of climate change on ecosystem structure and function. Here, we show that experimental warming may deteriorate ecosystems via trophic interactions. In a Tibetan alpine meadow, plant species composition, size, coverage and above-ground biomass were investigated to reveal the effect of artificial warming ( c. 1 °C mean annual temperature at the soil surface), which was accomplished using warmed and ambient open top chambers. In addition, rodent damage to plants was assessed. The dicot forb silverweed Potentilla anserina increased significantly, while other species groups remained unchanged or decreased in plant community dominance rank after 2 years of artificial warming. The change in community structure was attributed to the difference in biomass allocation and growth form among species. In the third year, plateau zokors Myospalax fontanierii, a widespread rodent herbivore, damaged plants in the warmed chambers, while leaving plants in the ambient chambers mostly undamaged. Above-ground biomass was found to be smaller in the warmed chambers than the controls in the third year, in contrast to the trend of the first 2 years. In addition, zokor burrow density was positively correlated with silverweed biomass and its dominance within communities, which was consistent with findings of independent field investigations that silverweed-dominated plots were more likely to be visited and damaged by the zokors than sites-dominated by grass species. Synthesis and applications. The top-down negative effect of zokor damage on above-ground biomass in the warmed chambers was induced by the bottom-up effect of changes in species composition and community structure on zokor foraging behaviour, which were driven by artificial warming. Such trophic interactions may invalidate some predictions of ecological effects by current species-climate envelope models. Furthermore, because management measures including increasing the water table, planting grass and moderate cattle grazing may prevent silverweed dominance, we suggest that these interventions could be employed to control zokor damage in alpine meadows that are predicted to be drier and warmer in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Tibetan Plateau and the adjacent high mountain regions of the Himalayas play an important role in the global climate dynamic through its impact on the Asian monsoon system, which in turn is impacting the water resources of this extremely vulnerable region. To provide further knowledge about the changing impact of rainfall patterns, spatial and temporal variability of snow cover contribution, amount of snow and ice melt runoff, evapotranspiration as well as dynamics of wetlands and permafrost water balance studies are required. This is of particular importance in terms of global climate change because of a severe gap in the knowledge of the short, mid and long term implications on the hydrological system. This study concentrates on the macroscale catchment of the lake Nam Co, located at 4718ma.s.l. at the foot of the Nyainqentanglha Mountains in central Tibet (30° N, 90° E). The water balance of the Nam Co basin is dominated by semi-arid climate, snow and ice melt runoff and high evaporation rates due to the high radiation input and the low air humidity. The observed temperature rise, glacier retreat, permafrost decay and lake level increase indicate significant system changes and the high sensitivity of the Tibetan Plateau on global warming. The development of a suitable water balance model and its preliminary application was the main objective of this study. The development was done with the Jena Adaptable Modelling System JAMS along with existing scientific process components of the J2000 module library which were partly further developed to reflect the specific conditions of the high elevation Nam Co basin. The preliminary modelling exercise based on gridded data from a downscaled ECHAM5 data set provided reasonable estimates about the important hydrological water balance components of the Nam Co basin. With the modelling results the observed lake level rise could be reproduced and it could be shown that the runoff from the glaciered areas seems to be the most important component to explain the increasing amount of lake water. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]