Search

Significant changes in the climatic system have been observed, which may be attributed to human-enhanced greenhouse effect. Even stronger changes are projected for the future, impacting in an increasing way on human activity sectors. The present contribution, prepared in the framework of the MICE (Modelling the Impact of Climate Extremes) Project of the European Union, reviews how climate change may impact on winter tourism in the Alpine region, intense precipitation and flood potential in central Europe, forest damage in Scandinavia and beach holidays in the Mediterranean coast. Impacts are likely to be serious and largely adverse. Due to a lack of adequate information and lack of broadly accepted and reliable mathematical models describing the impact of changes in climate extremes on these activity sectors, it has been found useful to use expert judgement based impact assessment. Accordingly, regional mini-workshops were organized serving as platforms for communication between scientists and stakeholders, vehicles for dissemination of the state-of-the-art of the scientific understanding and for learning stakeholders’ view on extreme events, their impacts and the preparedness system. Stakeholders had the opportunity to react to the scientific results and to reflect on their perception of the likely impacts of projected changes in extremes on relevant activity sectors and the potential to adapt and avert adverse consequences. The results reported in this paper present the stakeholders’ suggestions for essential information on different extreme event impacts and their needs from science. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to improve understanding of the adaptive capacity of European agriculture to climate change. Extensive data on farm characteristics of individual farms from the Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) have been combined with climatic and socio-economic data to analyze the influence of climate and management on crop yields and income and to identify factors that determine adaptive capacity. A multilevel analysis was performed to account for regional differences in the studied relationships. Our results suggest that socio-economic conditions and farmcharacteristics should be considered when analyzing effects of climate conditions on farm yields and income. Next to climate, input intensity, economic size and the type of land use were identified as important factors influencing spatial variability in crop yields and income. Generally, crop yields and income are increasing with farm size and farm intensity. However, effects differed among crops and high crop yields were not always related to high incomes, suggesting that impacts of climate and management differ by impact variable. As farm characteristics influence climate impacts on crop yields and income, they are good indicators of adaptive capacity at farm level and should be considered in impact assessment models. Different farm types with different management strategies will adapt differently. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the soil–atmosphere feedbacks and uncertainties under current (1960–1990) and plausible future climate conditions (2070–2100, using the A2 greenhouse gases emission scenario). For this purpose, two vegetation descriptions differing only in the grassland and grass-with-trees proportion in some parts of the domain have been created. The combination of these two different climate scenarios and two vegetation descriptions defines four different 30-year experiments, which have been completed using a regional climate model. The domain is centered around the Mediterranean basin and covers most of Europe. The study focuses on the summer season when there are major differences between the two vegetation descriptions and when the impact of land–surface processes on precipitation is largest. Present climate experiments show large evapotranspiration differences over areas where vegetation changes have taken place. Precipitation increases (up to 3 mm day−1 in some regions) follow evapotranspiration increases, although with a more complex spatial structure. These results indicate a high sensitivity at regional scales of summer precipitation processes to vegetation changes. Future climate simulations show very similar changes to those observed in the current climate experiments. This indicates that the impacts of climate change are relatively independent to the land-cover descriptions used in this study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many studies consider substitution of aircraft services with high-speed train (HST) services on short-haul routes desirable for environmental reasons. This paper empirically examined this perception by evaluating local air pollution (LAP) and climate change impacts from a flight and an HST service between London and Paris. Comparing the emissions, the impact, and the cost of damage from the aircraft journey with the HST journey, it was found that substituting an aircraft seat with an HST seat is beneficial. These benefits are likely to occur on all routes on which aircraft and HST substitution is likely to take place. Despite the many limitations in the evaluation of environmental impact, the analysis suggests that such an evaluation is valuable and provides important information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While a substantial part of the population in Europe seems well informed about the phenomenon of climate change, uncertainty seems to prevail in terms of its seriousness, its consequences for society and action that needs to be taken in order to prevent ‘dangerous interference with the climate system’. Many people seem to believe that there is no scientific consensus about climate change and that individual behavioural change is irrelevant in the face of uncertainty. Such a ‘psychology of denial’ seems particularly strong in the context of air travel, the fastest growing transport sector. This paper seeks to understand this phenomenon by analysing the discourses surrounding air travel. Four major industry discourses are identified: air travel is energy efficient and accounts only for marginal emissions of CO2; air travel is economically and socially too important to be restricted; fuel use is constantly minimized and new technology will solve the problem, and air travel is treated unfairly in comparison to other means of transport. The validity of these claims is evaluated based on data and material presented in the scientific literature. Results show that there are substantial gaps between the discourses and the reality of aviation's environmental performance, which might partially explain the controversial understanding of air travel and its environmental consequences among the public. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The aim of this paper is to study the relation between climate change and the earliness of Birch pollination, a tree that produces allergenic pollen, which is of particular importance in north-western Europe. The study allowed us to make projections for the next few years in order to evaluate the evolution of Birch pollination starting date according to spring temperatures. It has been done in ten European locations, Kevo and Turku (Finland), London (United Kingdom), Paris and Lyon (France), Brussels (Belgium), Zürich (Switzerland), Vienna (Austria), Poznan and Cracow (Poland). The study period ranged from six to twenty-eight years depending on the city. Pollens were recorded daily thanks to volumetric Hirst traps, and the data were compared to monthly temperatures from January to May using correlations and multiple regressions. Except in Kevo where the trend is towards colder springs and a later pollination, in the other cities the results showed a spring warming associated with an earlier starting date of pollination: this trend is very well marked in Turku, Zürich, London, Vienna and Brussels, less evident in France while there is no trend in Poland. The results of this work should lead to an updating of the pollen calendars and the pollen forecast models, in the cities where there is a pronounced trend. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Quantitative reconstruction of past vegetation is one of the primary goals in Quaternary palynology and palaeoecology but still remains difficult. This paper proposes a model, REVEALS, that estimates regional vegetation composition using pollen from ‘large lakes’ that have small site-to-site variations of pollen assemblages even if vegetation is highly heterogeneous. Once these data have been used to quantify regional vegetation composition within 104-105 km², background pollen, one of the parameters crucial for vegetation reconstruction, can be estimated for smaller-sized sites, and incorporated into the Landscape Reconstruction Algorithm (LRA), a multistep framework for quantitative reconstruction of vegetation in smaller areas (≤/104 ha). Simulations using the POLLSCAPE modelling show that REVEALS can provide accurate estimates of regional vegetation composition in various landscapes and under different atmospheric conditions. If pollen assemblages from lakes that are much smaller than ‘large lakes’ are used, estimates of regional vegetation at individual sites could be significantly different from the expected values, and their site-to-site variation could be large. However, when pollen data from multiple lakes ≥100-500 ha in size are available, REVEALS can provide accurate estimates of the regional vegetation with relatively small standard errors. Quantitative reconstruction of regional landscape and vegetation change will be critical for testing some of the controversial hypotheses and concepts in global change and conservation research, such as the impacts of agricultural activities on global climate over the last 8000 years and the open-woodland hypothesis in northern Europe in the early Holocene. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Migration is a widespread strategy that enables animals to escape harsh winter conditions. It has been well documented that migration phenology in birds is changing in response to recent climate warming in the northern hemisphere. Despite the existence of large temporal and geographical scale ringing data on birds in Europe, changes in migration strategies in relation to climate warming have not been well studied, mainly because of a lack of appropriate statistical methods. In this paper, we develop a method that enables us to investigate temporal changes in migration strategies from recoveries of dead ringed birds. We estimated migration probability as the ratio between recovery probabilities of conspecific birds originating from different countries but potentially wintering in the same country. We applied this method to two European thrushes: the entirely migrant redwing Turdus iliacus, and the partially migrant blackbird T. Merula. We tested for an immediate and a 1-year lagged relationship between our migration probability and climatic covariates (i. E. Mean winter temperature in France and the North Atlantic Oscillation). Using ringing-recovery data collected in Finland, Germany, Switzerland and France from 1970 to 1999, we detected contrasting responses in these two species, likely related to their different migratory behaviours. Both species showed a decline in the probability for northern and eastern birds to winter in France. The entirely migratory redwing exhibited a year-to-year plastic response to climate, whereas the decline in the partially migrant blackbird was smooth, suggesting underlying genetic processes. The proposed method, thus, allows us to identify useful indicators of climatic impacts on migration strategies, as well as highlighting differences between closely related species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

If uncontrolled, human influences on the climate system may generate changes that will endanger various aspects of life on Earth. The precise implications of the scientific claims about climate change, and the extent to which they pose dangers to various populations, are becoming intensely debated at many levels in relation to policy. How 'danger' is interpreted will ultimately affect which actions are taken. In this paper, we examine how climate change is conceptualised by publics in Europe and in the USA. Although there is widespread concern about climate change, it is of secondary importance in comparison to other issues in people's daily lives. Most individuals relate to climate change through personal experience, knowledge, the balance of benefits and costs, and trust in other societal actors. We analyse these factors through findings from various surveys and studies, which highlight both the distinctiveness and some shared perspectives at a generalised level. We reflect upon these in relation to trust and responsibility for climate change action, and risk communication, supporting the call for discourses about climate change to also be situated in people's locality, as a means of increasing its saliency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the climate change processes requires application of special methodologies for revealing a ground surface temperature history (GSTH). It was proved by different authors that the GSTH may be determined on the basis of analysis of the temperature field observed in short boreholes. In this paper, the authors analyze four mathematical models describing the GSTH: (1) sudden change, (2) linear increase, (3) square root of time increase and (4) exponential increase. Fifteen borehole temperature profiles from Europe, Asia and North America were selected in three groups based on their geographical proximity. After careful analysis of temperature-depth profiles in these boreholes it was found out that two models (linear increase and square root of time increase) provide the best fit with field data. The calculated warming rates in the 20th century were compared with those obtained by a few parameters estimation (FPE) technique. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper presents a range of future, spatially explicit, land use change scenarios for the EU15, Norway and Switzerland based on an interpretation of the global storylines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that are presented in the special report on emissions scenarios (SRES). The methodology is based on a qualitative interpretation of the SRES storylines for the European region, an estimation of the aggregate totals of land use change using various land use change models and the allocation of these aggregate quantities in space using spatially explicit rules. The spatial patterns are further downscaled from a resolution of 10min to 250m using statistical downscaling procedures. The scenarios include the major land use/land cover classes urban, cropland, grassland and forest land as well as introducing new land use classes such as bioenergy crops. The scenario changes are most striking for the agricultural land uses, with large area declines resulting from assumptions about future crop yield development with respect to changes in the demand for agricultural commodities. Abandoned agricultural land is a consequence of these assumptions. Increases in urban areas (arising from population and economic change) are similar for each scenario, but the spatial patterns are very different. This reflects alternative assumptions about urban development processes. Forest land areas increase in all scenarios, although such changes will occur slowly and largely reflect assumed policy objectives. The scenarios also consider changes in protected areas (for conservation or recreation goals) and how these might provide a break on future land use change. The approach to estimate new protected areas is based in part on the use of models of species distribution and richness. All scenarios assume some increases in the area of bioenergy crops with some scenarios assuming a major development of this new land use. Several technical and conceptual difficulties in developing future land use change scenarios are discussed. These include the problems of the subjective nature of qualitative interpretations, the land use change models used in scenario development, the problem of validating future change scenarios, the quality of the observed baseline, and statistical downscaling techniques. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Most studies on the impact of climate change on regional water resources focus on long-term average flows or mean water availability, and they rarely take the effects of altered human water use into account. When analyzing extreme events such as floods and droughts, the assessments are typically confined to smaller areas and case studies. At the same time it is acknowledged that climate change may severely alter the risk of hydrological extremes over large regional scales, and that human water use will put additional pressure on future water resources. In an attempt to bridge these various aspects, this paper presents a first-time continental, integrated analysis of possible impacts of global change (here defined as climate and water use change) on future flood and drought frequencies for the selected study area of Europe. The global integrated water model WaterGAP is evaluated regarding its capability to simulate high and low-flow regimes and is then applied to calculate relative changes in flood and drought frequencies. The results indicate large `critical regions' for which significant changes in flood or drought risks are expected under the proposed global change scenarios. The regions most prone to a rise in flood frequencies are northern to northeastern Europe, while southern and southeastern Europe show significant increases in drought frequencies. In the critical regions, events with an intensity of today's 100-year floods and droughts may recur every 10-50 years by the 2070s. Though interim and preliminary, and despite the inherent uncertainties in the presented approach, the results underpin the importance of developing mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change impacts on a continental scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human emissions of greenhouse gases are already changing our climate. This paper provides an overview of the relation between climate change and weather extremes, and examines three specific cases where recent acute events have stimulated debate on the potential role of climate change: the European heatwave of 2003; the risk of inland flooding, such as recently in Central Europe and Great Britain; and the harsh Atlantic hurricane seasons of 2004 and 2005. Furthermore, it briefly assesses the relation between climate change and El Niño, and the potential of abrupt climate change. Several trends in weather extremes are sufficiently clear to inform risk reduction efforts. In many instances, however, the potential increases in extreme events due to climate change come on top of alarming rises in vulnerability. Hence, the additional risks due to climate change should not be analysed or treated in isolation, but instead integrated into broader efforts to reduce the risk of natural disasters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Evaluation of the first early human settlement of northern Europe is closely bound up with issues of climate change, human social and technical capability, and sampling visibility. The finds from Dmanisi (1.7 Ma) suggest that small-brained early Homo with simple technologies was able to colonise temperate regions, and it is unlikely that Europe presented insuperable problems compared with Georgia; or that hominids who colonised the South of Europe in favourable conditions could not advance to the north within a few thousand years. Consideration of the geological record, however, shows how much has been lost: apart from large areas currently under sea, evidence of past rivers such as the proto-Thames and Bytham helps measure the extent of erosion, much of it caused by glacial planing. Fire history, in terms of controlled fire use, appears in northern Europe by isotope stage 11, when it is widespread across the continent. Beeches Pit is a prime example indicating fire control, and social activity around fires and in fire management. Fire is however puzzlingly absent from many sites, including those of OIS13. The paper considers the alternative possibilities: that fire use was introduced through an increase in human social/intellectual capability around OIS 11, and that sampling limitations greatly reduce our chances of seeing it on earlier sites. To cite this article: J.A.J. Gowlett, C. R. Palevol 5 (2006) . [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

There is considerable interest in the potential impact of climate change on the feasibility and predictability of renewable energy sources including wind energy. This paper presents dynamically downscaled near-surface wind fields and examines the impact of climate change on near-surface flow and hence wind energy density across northern Europe. It is shown that: Simulated wind fields from the Rossby Centre coupled Regional Climate Model (RCM) (RCAO) with boundary conditions derived from ECHAM4/OPYC3 AOGCM and the HadAM3H atmosphere-only GCM exhibit reasonable and realistic features as documented in reanalysis data products during the control period (1961–1990). The near-surface wind speeds calculated for a climate change projection period of 2071–2100 are higher than during the control run for two IPCC emission scenarios (A2, B2) for simulations conducted using boundary conditions from ECHAM4/OPYC3. The RCAO simulations conducted using boundary conditions from ECHAM4/OPYC3 indicate evidence for a small increase in the annual wind energy resource over northern Europe between the control run and climate change projection period and for more substantial increases in energy density during the winter season. However, the differences between the RCAO simulations for the climate projection period and the control run are of similar magnitude to differences between the RCAO fields in the control period and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. Additionally, the simulations show a high degree of sensitivity to the boundary conditions, and simulations conducted using boundary conditions from HadAM3H exhibit evidence of slight declines or no change in wind speed and energy density between 1961–1990 and 2071–2100. Hence, the uncertainty of the projected wind changes is relatively high. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a probabilistic method of pollen spectra analysis. The method relies on a pollen taxon characterization using biotic and abiotic plant attribute modes, and their occurrence in a given pollen spectrum at a specific site. This type of analysis can provide an interpretation, which can lead to the reconstruction of the biome and, to an extent, of the abiotic conditions at the site.The analysis has been carried out at the European scale using data provided by the European Pollen Database for about 1000 sites. This dataset contains about 50,000 pollen spectra from the last 21 ka. In these spectra, each pollen taxon has been characterized by a set of 10 chosen attributes. These have been selected with regard to their relevance in biome reconstruction, but also on the basis of available literature. By using the probability of occurrence of each taxon in a given pollen spectrum, it is possible to calculate an affinity index for the spectrum to the attribute considered. To overcome difficulties caused by pollen identification in low diversified pollen spectra, a co-occurrence concept has been used to give more information.The method has been validated on a set of 1327 modern surface samples by comparing the results to the major climatic and environmental variables that control the distribution of the vegetation. A reconstruction exercise on various characteristics of the plants was then carried out on a 6-ka dataset. This confirmed previous studies by showing a strong dominance of deciduous forest over most of Europe, related to a milder climate than at present in the north and a wetter and colder climate than at present in the south. By analysing the change in pollen/seed dispersion strategies and the light requirement, we show that the history of vegetation dynamics in relation to human influences can be assessed using this method.Our results show that the probabilistic method is an objective tool for pollen assemblage analysis. It allows reconstruction of various characteristics of the vegetation at the continental and global scale for periods and sites with significantly different climate conditions. This method can also be used to compare maps of vegetation attributes for the validation of the new generalized dynamic ecosystems models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Two of the ways in which air travel affects climate are the emission of carbon dioxide and the creation of high-altitude contrails. One possible impact reduction strategy is to significantly reduce the formation of contrails. This could be achieved by limiting the cruise altitude of aircraft. If implemented, this could severely constrain air space capacity, especially in parts of Europe. In addition, carbon emissions would likely be higher due to less efficient aircraft operation at lower cruise altitudes. This paper describes an analysis of these trade-offs using an air space simulation model as applied to European airspace. The model simulates the flight paths and altitudes of each aircraft and is here used to calculate emissions of carbon dioxide and changes in the journey time. For a one-day Western European traffic sample, calculations suggest annual mean CO2 emissions would increase by only 4% if cruise altitudes were restricted to prevent contrail formation. The change in journey time depended on aircraft type and route, but average changes were less than 1 min. Our analysis demonstrates that altitude restrictions on commercial aircraft could be an effective means of reducing climate change impacts, though it will be necessary to mitigate the increased controller workload conflicts that this will generate. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper reviews the knowledge on effects of climate change on agricultural productivity in Europe and the consequences for policy and research. Warming is expected to lead to a northward expansion of suitable cropping areas and a reduction of the growing period of determinate crops (e.g. cereals), but an increase for indeterminate crops (e.g. root crops). Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations will directly enhance plant productivity and also increase resource use efficiencies.In northern areas climate change may produce positive effects on agriculture through introduction of new crop species and varieties, higher crop production and expansion of suitable areas for crop cultivation. Disadvantages may be an increase in the need for plant protection, the risk of nutrient leaching and the turnover of soil organic matter. In southern areas the disadvantages will predominate. The possible increase in water shortage and extreme weather events may cause lower harvestable yields, higher yield variability and a reduction in suitable areas for traditional crops. These effects may reinforce the current trends of intensification of agriculture in northern and western Europe and extensification in the Mediterranean and southeastern parts of Europe.Policy will have to support the adaptation of European agriculture to climate change by encouraging the flexibility of land use, crop production, farming systems etc. In doing so, it is necessary to consider the multifunctional role of agriculture, and to strike a variable balance between economic, environmental and social functions in different European regions. Policy will also need to be concerned with agricultural strategies to mitigate climate change through a reduction in emissions of methane and nitrous oxide, an increase in carbon sequestration in agricultural soils and the growing of energy crops to substitute fossil energy use. The policies to support adaptation and mitigation to climate change will need to be linked closely to the development of agri-environmental schemes in the European Union Common Agricultural Policy.Research will have further to deal with the effect on secondary factors of agricultural production, on the quality of crop and animal production, of changes in frequency of isolated and extreme weather events on agricultural production, and the interaction with the surrounding natural ecosystems. There is also a need to study combined effects of adaptation and mitigation strategies, and include assessments of the consequences on current efforts in agricultural policy to develop a sustainable agriculture that also preserves environmental and social values in the rural society. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This review paper summarizes recent research work on abrupt climatic changes and oscillations. The climatic system is viewed as a dissipative, highly non-linear system, under non-equilibrium conditions, and, as such, should be expected to have some unusual properties. These unusual properties include bifurcation points with marked instability just before the point, magnification of semi-periodic oscillations around bifurcation points, and variations in the strength of teleconnections with distance from equilibrium. These properties are discussed and illustrated for the climatic system using both the historical, Holocene and glacial climatic records. It is found that there are abrupt climatic changes and oscillations on all time-scales. The amplitudes and frequencies of climate variability and teleconnections are found to vary between different time periods. A number of persistent oscillations exist, particularly one about 1500 years, but their amplitudes vary considerably between time periods. The Holocene appears to be no more climatically benign than the similar period in the Eemian. The importance of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation for generating abrupt climatic changes in Europe, particularly in association with sudden pulses of fresh water, is illustrated. The concept of antiphase temperature changes between the North and South Atlantic is discussed. Externally generated abrupt climatic deteriorations owing to explosive volcanic eruptions and variations in solar irradiance are also discussed. Copyright © 2001 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The first deep permafrost boreholes (>10 m) ever drilled in Scandinavia for climatic studies constitute part of a transect of deep mountain permafrost boreholes through the mountains of Europe established under the EU PACE (Permafrost and Climate in Europe) Project. In Scandinavia, PACE boreholes are located at Juvvasshøe, southern Norway, Tarfalaryggen in northern Sweden, and northernmost in the transect at Janssonhaugen, western Svalbard. This paper outlines the aims and objectives of the PACE programme, and describes in detail the Svalbard and Scandinavian permafrost boreholes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

SummaryUnder the Kyoto Protocol, the European Union is committed to a reduction in CO2 emissions to 92% of baseline (1990) levels during the first commitment period (2008–2012). The Kyoto Protocol allows carbon emissions to be offset by demonstrable removal of carbon from the atmosphere. Thus, land-use/land-management change and forestry activities that are shown to reduce atmospheric CO2 levels can be included in the Kyoto targets. These activities include afforestation, reforestation and deforestation (article 3.3 of the Kyoto Protocol) and the improved management of agricultural soils (article 3.4). In this paper, we estimate the carbon mitigation potential of various agricultural land-management strategies and examine the consequences of European policy options on carbon mitigation potential, by examining combinations of changes in agricultural land-use/land-management. We show that no single land-management change in isolation can mitigate all of the carbon needed to meet Europe's climate change commitments, but integrated combinations of land-management strategies show considerable potential for carbon mitigation. Three of the combined scenarios, one of which is an optimal realistic scenario, are by themselves able to meet Europe's emission limitation or reduction commitments. Through combined land-management scenarios, we show that the most important resource for carbon mitigation in agriculture is the surplus arable land. We conclude that in order to fully exploit the potential of arable land for carbon mitigation, policies will need to be implemented to allow surplus arable land to be put into alternative long-term land-use. Of all options examined, bioenergy crops show the greatest potential for carbon mitigation. Bioenergy crop production also shows an indefinite mitigation potential compared to other options where the mitigation potential is finite. We suggest that in order to exploit fully the bioenergy option, the... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The use of reclaimed or treated water from urban wastewater treatment plants for irrigation has been proposed as an alternative water source to address water scarcity issues in Europe. In this paper using agro-economic modelling, we analyse if treated water available for agriculture has the potential to reduce freshwater abstraction and, consequently, water stress. Implementing exogenous treated water quantities as an additional water supply at NUTS 2 level in the CAPRI model, we found that treated water reuse is a possible alternative supply source to address water shortages with a very negligible effect on farmers' income and food production in the EU. However, the actual water reuse and water stress reduction is very limited due to high costs. Even climate change effects on water availability and precipitation failed to induce higher use. The one-size-fits-all approach modelled via a flat rate water price only encourages the reuse of treated water in a limited number of EU member states. Thus, in order to maximise the potential of reused water to address water scarcity, different rates should be used so as to ensure higher treated water volumes at lower costs. • Water reuse is a possible alternative supply source to address water shortages. • Negligible effect on farmer's income and food production in EU. • Actual water reuse and water stress reduction is very limited. • Financial incentives in form of subsidies necessary to improve water reuse for irrigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is an ongoing scientific debate about how environmental concern develops in a population, and under which circumstances it might decline at some point. In this paper, by analysing thirty years of microdata from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), I investigate the role of socioeconomic factors and political preferences in altering and addressing environmental perceptions in Germany, Europe's green leader. Results from correlated random-effects models reveal, inter alia, that economic insecurity and support for right-wing political parties significantly contribute to lowering environmental concern. Hence, policymakers ought to focus on economic insecurity in order to increase citizens' environmental concern and, eventually, bring an enhancement in pro-environmental behaviour as a result of the voters' political will. • I examine the economic and political factors shaping environmental concern over time. • I analyse 30 years of microdata from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP). • I employ Mundlak-type correlated random-effects models and Difference-in-Differences. • Economic insecurity and political choices are key drivers of environmental concern. • The results may be useful to policymakers, marketers, green businesses, and educators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper analyses effects of changes in temperatures on heating and cooling demands in Europe until 2050. Specifically, the study addresses changes in trends (10-year mean) and extremes (10-year min/max). The analysis is based on two GHG emission climate scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP4.5) and eight high-resolution regional climate models and results are provided as relative and absolute changes on grid and country scales. Population density is used as proxy for spatial distribution of demands. Projected future temperatures are proportional with RCP scenario and distance into the future and the highest relative changes occur towards north-eastern Europe and for high-altitude areas. The temperature changes lead to general decreased heating demands and corresponding increased cooling demands. In general, higher spreads are seen between demand change ratios for individual models when addressing extremes as opposed to trends: The general 2010–2050 change ratios for heating between countries are 0.85–95 for model means and average 0.69 for the extreme analysis. For cooling, corresponding ratios are 1.25–1.5 for model means and average 2.76 for model maxima. For absolute demand changes, some countries are projected to experience significant changes e.g. exceeding a doubling in cooling demands. The results are suggested as a basis for energy system analyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Temperature is widely known as one of the most important drivers to forecast electricity and gas variables, such as the load. Because of that reason, temperature forecasting is and has been for years of great interest for energy forecasters and several approaches and methods have been published. However, these methods usually do not consider temperature trend, which causes important error increases when dealing with medium- or long-term estimations. This paper presents several temperature forecasting methods based on time series decomposition and analyzes their results and the trends of 37 different European countries, proving their annual average temperature increase and their different behaviors regarding trend and seasonal components. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Net-zero emissions are modelled for electricity, heating and cooling in Europe. • System cost decreases thanks to heat savings, but not for climate change scenarios. • Lower heat demand disfavours heat pumps as surplus electricity is used by resistors. • Cheaper heat pumps impact resistive heaters substantially, but not the opposite. To limit the global temperature increase to 1.5 °C, fossil-free energy systems will be required eventually. To understand how such systems can be designed, the current state-of-the-art is to apply techno-economical optimisation modelling with high spatial and temporal resolution. This approach relies on a number of climatic, technical and economic predictions that reach multiple decades into the future. In this paper, we investigate how the design of a fossil-free energy system for Europe is affected by changes in these assumptions. In particular, the synergy among renewable generators, power-to-heat converters, storage units, synthetic gas and transmission manage to deliver an affordable net-zero emissions system. We find that levelised cost of energy decreases due to heat savings, but not for global temperature increases. In both cases, heat pumps become less favourable as surplus electricity is more abundant for heating. Demand-side management through buildings' thermal inertia could shape the heating demand, yet has modest impact on the system configuration. Cost reductions of heat pumps impact resistive heaters substantially, but not the opposite. Cheaper power-to-gas could lower the need for thermal energy storage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Technological and behavioural developments in Europe at 400,000 years ago. • Model of landscape and resources shaping development of localised material culture. • Model of population movement triggered by shifts in climate or environment. • Estimates of social group and territory size for Middle Pleistocene Europe. Identification of cultural groups is rare in the early Palaeolithic due to site formation processes including taphonomy and the effect of raw material and site function. This paper reviews a critical period in Europe at about 400 ka (MIS 11) when we may be able to identify such groups. This period, sees more sustained occupation and evidence of new technologies, including bone and wooden tools, hunting and fire-use. Importantly, brain size had begun to approach modern capacity. The fine-tuned record from Britain enables correlation of sites and new models of human behaviour to be developed. Millennial-scale changes in material culture can now be recognised, which can be interpreted as brief incursions by different cultural groups into Britain from mainland Europe. We suggest that population movement was primarily driven by changes in climate and environment. We further propose that variation in material culture is a reflection of local resources and landscape and that during stable environment localised expressions of culture emerge. This can be applied to Europe, where it is suggested that a complex mosaic of small-scale cultural groupings can be identified, some with and some without handaxes, but underpinned by a common set of technologies and behaviours. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hydro-meteorological hazards (HMHs) have had a strong impact on human societies and ecosystems. Their impact is projected to be exacerbated by future climate scenarios. HMHs cataloguing is an effective tool to evaluate their associated risks and plan appropriate remediation strategies. However, factors linked to HMHs origin and triggers remain uncertain, which pose a challenge for their cataloguing. Focusing on key HMHs (floods, storm surges, landslides, droughts, and heatwaves), the goal of this review paper is to analyse and present a classification scheme, key features, and elements for designing nature-based solutions (NBS) and mitigating the adverse impacts of HMHs in Europe. For this purpose, we systematically examined the literature on NBS classification and assessed the gaps that hinder the widespread uptake of NBS. Furthermore, we critically evaluated the existing literature to give a better understanding of the HMHs drivers and their interrelationship (causing multi-hazards). Further conceptualisation of classification scheme and categories of NBS shows that relatively few studies have been carried out on utilising the broader concepts of NBS in tackling HMHs and that the classification and effectiveness of each NBS are dependent on the location, architecture, typology, green species and environmental conditions, as well as interrelated non-linear systems. NBS are often more cost-effective than hard engineering approaches used within the existing systems, especially when taking into consideration their potential co-benefits. We also evaluated the sources of available data for HMHs and NBS, highlighted gaps in data, and presented strategies to overcome the current shortcomings for the development of the NBS for HMHs. We highlighted specific gaps and barriers that need to be filled since the uptake and upscaling studies of NBS in HMHs reduction is rare. The fundamental concepts and the key technical features of past studies reviewed here could help practitioners to design and implement NBS in a real-world situation. Image 1 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper compares lithic and faunal assemblages from Milovice (Czech Republic) and Kraków Spadzista (Poland) archaeological sites, with the aim of reconstructing temporal variations and patterning in Gravettian hunting of Mammuthus primigenius (woolly mammoth) in Central Europe. Milovice I was occupied ∼1 ky earlier than Kraków Spadzista, and is contemporaneous with Willendorf-Kostienkan sites. It is dated between 30.1 and 29.2 ka cal BP, overlapping the end of the GS 5.1 stadial in the Greenland ice core paleoclimatic record; the site was formed during cold climatic conditions. Radiocarbon dates from Kraków Spadzista indicate the site was occupied between 28.6 and 27 ka cal BP, spanning periods of significant climate instability through the GI 4 interstadial, GS 4 stadial, and the short interstadial GI 3. The two sites have fundamental differences in armature tool kits, such as raw materials and tool sizes. The hunter-gatherers at both sites had a mammoth-hunting focus, although they used different sized lithic weapon tips for hunting and thus probably had different strategies for procuring prey. The mammoth mortality profiles are significantly different at the two sites. At Milovice I, mid-life adults dominate the profile, while juveniles greatly dominate at Kraków Spadzista. We suggest that climatically mediated differences in mammoth migratory behavior, feeding behavior, population sizes, and demography influenced Gravettian people to manufacture and use different sizes of projectile points and to significantly increase the number of tool types during the most climatically unstable periods; these changes reflected tactical changes in Late Gravettian subsistence hunting in East-Central Europe. • Hunter-gatherers at Milovice I and Kraków Spadzista killed mammoths using different sizes and types of lithic weapon tips. • Climatic conditions and changes observed in lithic toolkits are clues about Late Gravettian mammoth-hunting practices in East-Central Europe. • Changes in mammoth demography, behavior, and ecology influenced human choices of sites, hunting strategies, and weaponry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Climate change affects long-lived infrastructures like electricity systems. • Decarbonization will largely be based on variable renewable energies. • Impacts of climate change work differently in size and direction. • Two investment planning strategies are compared: Anticipate climate change yes or no. • Total effects but also isolated effects on potential welfare loss are estimated. Ongoing climate change affects complex and long-lived infrastructures like electricity systems. Particularly for decarbonized electricity systems based on variable renewable energies, there is a variety of impact mechanisms working differently in size and direction. Main impacts for Europe include changes in wind and solar resources, hydro power, cooling water availability for thermoelectric generation and electricity demand. Hence, it is not only important to understand the total effects, i.e., how much welfare may be gained when accounting for climate change impacts in all dimensions, but also to disentangle various effects in terms of their marginal contribution to the potential welfare loss. This paper applies a two-stage modeling framework to assess very strong climate change impacts on a cost-optimally decarbonized, highly renewables-based European electricity system. Thereby, the performance of two electricity system design strategies – one based on no anticipation of climate change and one anticipating impacts of climate change – is studied under a variety of climate change impacts. Impacts on wind and solar resources are found to cause the largest system effects in 2100. Combined climate change impacts increase system costs of a system designed without climate change anticipation due to increased fuel and carbon permit costs. Applying a system design strategy with climate change anticipation increases the cost-optimal share of variable renewable energy based on additional wind offshore capacity in 2100, at a reduction in nuclear, wind onshore and solar photovoltaics capacity. Compared to a no anticipation strategy, total system costs are reduced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary The paper explains the concept of 'One world-one health', which aims at new paradigms to significantly reduce the risks to human and animal health due to globalization, to climate change, to the intensification of producing food with and from animals, and to changing human-animal interfaces. In Europe, the two major 'tools' for gradually implementing the principles of 'One world-one health' are (i) the application of all aspects of the so-called risk-based meat inspection taking into account the entire food chain from 'farm to fork', and (ii) the application of all aspects of the 'European Union Animal Health Strategy 2007-2013'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]