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Copyright of Canadian Journal of Fisheries & Aquatic Sciences is the property of Canadian Science Publishing and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

In an ever-changing environment, detecting shifts in the spatial distribution of marine fish and understanding the relative importance of climate change and biotic factors impacting fish distributions can improve fisheries management. Coincident with the significant increase in Haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus) abundance to a historically high levels on Georges Bank (GB) in the last decade, extreme ocean temperature increase was also observed in this region. In this study, the possible seasonal and inter-annual spatial distribution changes of haddock were investigated with >50 years of bottom trawl survey data collected in spring and fall on GB. These data were analyzed using models with spatial, different temporal, and spatio-temporal autocorrelation structures. To characterize the directional changes in haddock spatial distribution, the Center of Gravity (CG) and Area of Occupancy (AO) in each season were estimated from the best model selected by Akaike Information Criteria (AIC). The results showed substantial range expansion/contraction and distribution changes in both spring and fall over time. The relative role of density dependence, age structure, and climate change in affecting haddock distribution was evaluated using a generalized additive model (GAM). It was found that density-dependent habitat selection made the greatest contribution to the variations of AO in both seasons, which is consistent with the MacCall's Basin model theory. Rising ocean temperatures played a major role in shaping a northward distribution shift in fall. GB is the southern edge of haddock distribution in the Northwest Atlantic, continued warming from climate model projections in the next 50 years in this region could make it difficult to define stock boundaries between GB and adjacent Canadian and US domestic management areas. This would subsequently impact fishery management of haddock. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predicting the impact of marine ecosystem warming on the timing and magnitude of phytoplankton production is challenging. For example, warming can advance the progression of stratification thereby changing the availability of nutrients to surface phytoplankton, or influence the surface mixed layer depth, thus affecting light availability. Here, we use a time series of sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll remote sensing products to characterize the response of the phytoplankton community to increased temperature in the Northeast US Shelf Ecosystem. The rate of change in SST was higher in the summer than in winter in all ecoregions resulting in little change in the timing and magnitude of the spring thermal transition compared to a significant change in the autumn transition. Along with little phenological shift in spring thermal conditions, there was also no evidence of a change in spring bloom timing and duration. However, we observed a change in autumn bloom timing in the Georges Bank ecoregion, where bloom initiation has shifted from late September to late October between 1998 and 2020—on average 33 d later. Bloom duration in this ecoregion also shortened from ∼7.5 to 5 weeks. The shortened autumn bloom may be caused by later overturn in stratification known to initiate autumn blooms in the region, whereas the timing of light limitation at the end of the bloom remains unchanged.  These changes in bloom timing and duration appear to be related to the change in autumn thermal conditions and the significant shift in autumn thermal transition. These results suggest that the spring bloom phenology in this temperate continental shelf ecosystem may be more resilient to thermal climate change effects than blooms occurring in other times of the year. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: As part of a project comparing the structure and function of four marine ecosystems off Norway and the United States, this paper examines the oceanographic responses to climate forcing, with emphasis on recent changes. The four Northern Hemisphere ecosystems include two in the Pacific Ocean (Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska) and two in the Atlantic Ocean (Georges Bank/Gulf of Maine and the Barents/Norwegian Seas). Air temperatures, wind forcing and heat fluxes over the four regions are compared as well as ocean hydrography and sea-ice conditions where seasonal sea ice is found. The long-term interannual variability in air temperatures, winds and net heat fluxes show strong similarity between adjacent ecosystems and within subregions of an ecosystem, but no significant correlations between Pacific and Atlantic ecosystems and few across the Atlantic. In spite of the lack of correlation between climate forcing and ocean conditions between most of the ecosystems, recent years have seen record or near record highs in air and sea temperatures in all ecosystems. The apparent causes of the warming differ. In the Atlantic, they appear to be due to advection, while in the Pacific temperatures are more closely linked to air-sea heat exchanges. Advection is also responsible for the observed changes in salinity in the Atlantic ecosystems (generally increasing salinity in the Barents and Norwegian Seas and decreasing in the Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank) while salinity changes in the Gulf of Alaska are largely related to increased local runoff. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]