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The uncertainty of climate change's impacts hinders adaptation actions, particularly micro-scale urban design interventions. This paper proposes a sixfold urban design framework to assess and enhance the resilience of urban form to climate change, where urban form refers to the patterns of streets, buildings, and land uses. The framework is then applied to Long Bay in Negril, Jamaica-a coastal area that incorporates the complex interactions between urbanization and a highly vulnerable socio-ecological system to climate change-related hazards, primarily sea-level rise. Empirical evidence from 19 in-depth interviews with planning and design professionals and development actors, in situ observations, and morphological analyses reveal that Long Bay's current adaptation strategies heavily rely on bounce-back resilience measures that predominantly consider the impacts of extreme climatic events rather than slow-onset ones. Such strategies abet current tourism-driven development patterns while overlooking Long Bay's inherent abilities for generative transformation and incremental changes to meet climatic uncertainty. Instead, this study's findings highlight how generative urban form transformation would better equip Long Bay to cope with future uncertainty-climatic or other., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2023 Dhar, Khirfan. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

When young people engage with climate change education, they are often left feeling disempowered and daunted. But past research has shown that there are ways to design and deliver climate change education that can be empowering and enabling. The delivery of climate change education was further challenged in 2020 by the shift to online learning driven by the COVID‐19 pandemic restrictions. However, the challenges of the pandemic context also offered an opportunity to engage new audiences and establish new collaborations in climate change education. In this paper, we explore how the shift to online research, collaboration and education can also be harnessed to develop interdisciplinary coastal adaptation training for young people interested in better understanding the complexities of our coastal environments. The resulting 'More than Maps' framework draws on qualitative and quantitative data collected over a two‐year programme focused on the design and delivery of an international climate change research capacity building workshop series, across the United Kingdom, Ghana, Jamaica and Australia. Carried out by an interdisciplinary team of early career researchers and established academics, 15 workshops were developed on coastal adaptation research methods, targeting a range of 'young' audiences who are and will continue to be impacted by climate change. Building on reflections from the workshops' design and delivery, we developed a scalable framework to aid researchers in sharing open‐access, replicable methods for studying climate change mitigation and adaptation. This work demonstrates that our workshop participants had increased confidence, sought to apply learned methods to other contexts, and wanted to share this knowledge with others. We conclude that the COVID‐19 online workspace facilitated rather than hindered the international collaboration and delivery of these coastal adaptation research methods workshops, and we provide best practice tips to researchers delivering climate change education. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Civil aviation authorities, working with their airport, airline and aviation business partners, are developing plans to achieve carbon-neutral aviation growth from 2020. This paper discusses how, in order to meet this goal, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) Member States have agreed to a basket of measures for reducing carbon dioxide emissions from international aviation. One effective measure identified is replacing aircraft auxiliary power unit emissions with gate electrification systems and solar power as described in the United Nations Clean Development Mechanism small-scale methodology: solar power for domestic aircraft at-gate operations. ICAO, with funding support from international partners, has recently completed three airport pilot projects — in Cameroon, Jamaica and Kenya — that demonstrate how States can implement the solar at-gate measure. Beyond the direct application to auxiliary power units and gate electrification, the solar at-gate concept offers a more general approach as to how other airport electrification conversion projects, including ground support equipment, airport ground transportation and passenger vehicle use, can maximise emission reduction benefits by eliminating fossil-fuel combustion and replacing it with carbon-free electricity. This paper discusses the solar at-gate example, which demonstrates the opportunities associated with maximising airport electrification and supplying the new electricity demand with clean energy for carbon emission reductions consistent with the global efforts to address climate change, and at the same time, accelerating the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) through innovation for a greener future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Jamaica produces one of the most expensive coffees on the global market. The local specialty coffee industry plays a significant role in the island's economy and also contributes to the livelihood of smallholders—the majority of whom operate the industry's coffee farms. While climate model projections suggest that Jamaica will continue to experience a warming and drying trend, no study has assessed the future impacts of changing climatic patterns on local coffee-growing areas. This research developed a number of geospatial processing models within the ArcMap software platform to model current coffee suitability and future crop suitability across three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) and three future time periods (2021–2040, 2041–2060, and 2081–2100). The results validated current locations of coffee production and revealed that there was an observable decrease in coffee suitability across the island, across all SSP scenarios and time periods under study. Most growing regions were projected to experience declines in production suitability of at least 10%, with the most severe changes occurring in non-Blue Mountain regions under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Implications of this projected suitability change range from decreased production volumes, increased price volatility, and disruption to market operations and livelihood incomes. The paper's findings offer stakeholders within Jamaica's coffee industry the opportunity to develop targeted adaptation planning initiatives, and point to the need for concrete decisions concerning future investment pathways for the industry. It also provides insight into other tropical coffee-growing regions around the world that are facing the challenges associated with climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This paper aims to explore the need for innovation in Caribbean tourism with stringent (mandatory) environmental regulations as the key driver of the process. It draws examples from three destinations, Barbados, Guyana and Jamaica. Design/methodology/approach: This assessment entailed a review of the literature on the key issues. Theories on innovation, regulations and competitiveness were examined in brief. The paper also presents an overview of Caribbean tourism to provide context. Of note is the dearth of information on the drivers of innovation and its effect on the Caribbean tourism industry which was a major limitation of this assessment. Findings: The main implication of this review is that it attempts to highlight the need for discourse on the effective use of environmental regulations to influence the behaviour of industry operatives towards achieving sustainable tourism. Within the context of climate change and the threat that this poses to Caribbean tourism, there is the critical need for this discourse. Consideration is also given to the value stringency of regulation since it is theorised that, if applied correctly, this may be the impetus to drive businesses to innovate to be competitive. Originality/value: This is a novel approach to the management of the tourism industry which has shown a preference for self-regulation. Given the proposed outcome, the paper advocates mandatory, stringent regulations since self-regulation is a choice left solely to the industry operatives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the impact of hurricane risk exposure on poverty. To achieve this, we use a small area poverty mapping methodology to simulate our measure of poverty for households in Jamaica. Along with calculated hurricane wind exposure estimates that take account of the type of building material which matters for wind vulnerability, we calculate future risks for household poverty under different RCP8.5 climate change models. In general, we find that without wind resistant building material, substantial increases in poverty are likely under most models. The results are indicative of policy instruments needed to counteract the future risk of increases in poverty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper identifies the conceptual similarities between ecological designs and ecosystem-based adaptations to climate change. The former includes approaches grounded in expert knowledge, such as landscape ecological urbanism, while the latter is rooted in local experiential knowledge and relies on community-based adaptations. This paper bridges these expert and experiential knowledge forms through a transactive planning model by deploying design charrettes in the context of Negril, Jamaica. The findings reveal that local people are aware of ecosystems and prefer ecologically sensitive adaptation interventions. This study concludes with planning and design recommendations for climate change adaptation in Negril. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The Jamaican tourism industry is very climate sensitive, and, like most Caribbean islands, Jamaica's main tourism product is coastal, centered on "sun, sea and sand". The island is susceptible to many risks posed by climate change, including sea level rise and extreme events, with resultant impacts such as beach erosion, flooding, saline intrusion into aquifers and general coastal degradation. This paper evaluates the relative vulnerability of beach versus non-beach tourism in Jamaica, using 43 pre-determined literature-linked indicators. These comprise bio-geophysical, social, technological, economical, technological and institutional factors. Four case areas are assessed using multi-criteria decision analysis to derive vulnerability scores for each area. The study finds that non-beach tourism operations should not be automatically perceived as less vulnerable than beach-based operations. Sustainable adaptation options are complex and numerous, and overall beach tourism businesses have better insurance, emergency savings, disaster plans and backup power facilities, among others. They also have the advantage of being in business longer than the inland resorts, a firmer business structure and an extensive marketing budget. In the long term, better adaptation and planning by inland businesses could change this balance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has created much uncertainty about the future sustainability of freshwater resources. This study presents a hydro-social approach to vulnerability reduction within the Kingston Hydrological Basin as a critical aspect of advancing sustainable water management in Jamaica over the next 30 years. The study identified vulnerability measures across the basin's natural, social, technical and political components using a vulnerability assessment and risk-based analysis. The methodology involved an integrated and multi-stakeholder approach. The results revealed 21 measures constituting the basin's vulnerability to observed and projected societal and environmental change, 11 of which present a high to very high risk level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid socio-ecological changes are transforming coffee production systems causing hardship and uncertainty among farmers across the Caribbean. The uncertainty and magnitude of environmental change have been superimposed on longstanding issues of marginalization and multidimensional poverty among rural farmers. The combined and interactive effects of these conditions create complex trade-offs that hinder the uptake of effective climate action. In the last two decades or so, Jamaica's coffee sector has been severely affected by socioeconomic, environmental and institutional stressors resulting in rapid declines in the production and livelihood conditions of thousands of farmers across the island. To address these challenges, multilateral donors, government and non-government agencies have advanced several climate resilience programs in the last decade. Yet, there is a paucity of research on the livelihood resilience of farmers to socio-ecological change, and effective metrics to monitor and evaluate adaptation responses. In this paper, the experience and knowledge of coffee farmers (n = 219) in the Cedar Valley region of Jamaica are used to examine the factors shaping patterns of livelihood resilience within the context of socio-ecological changes. Quantitative survey data are combined with qualitative information from focus group discussions and key informant interviews to develop storylines around the domains of livelihood resilience. The results provide baseline information on the livelihood resilience of local coffee farmers and within the context of changing social, agronomic and environmental conditions. Understanding how these factors shape local livelihood resilience processes can strengthen local response options, identify possible entry points for improving climate action and establish monitoring and evaluation metrics to track progress and outcomes of climate resilience interventions. • Environmental change and Livelihood resilience coffee farmers in Jamaica are assessed. • Anticipatory, adaptive and absorptive capacities (3As) are used to measure resilience. • Land tenure and gender issues are important determinants of livelihood resilience. • Strengthening local institutional capacity can improve livelihood resilience outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study uses empirical models to examine the potential impact of climate change, based on a range of 100-yr phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) projections, on crop water need in Jamaica. As expected, crop water need increases with rising temperature and decreasing precipitation, especially in May-July. Comparing the temperature and precipitation impacts on crop water need indicates that the 25th percentile of CMIP5 temperature change (moderate warming) yields a larger crop water deficit than the 75th percentile of CMIP5 precipitation change (wet winter and dry summer), but the 25th percentile of CMIP5 precipitation change (substantial drying) dominates the 75th percentile of CMIP5 temperature change (extreme warming). Over the annual cycle, the warming contributes to larger crop water deficits from November to April, while the drying has a greater influence from May to October. All experiments decrease crop suitability, with the largest impact from March to August. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a dearth of studies characterizing historical sea level variability at the local scale for the islands in the Caribbean. This is due to the lack of reliable long term tide gauge data. There is, however, a significant need for such studies given that small islands are under increasing threat from rising sea levels, storm surges, and coastal flooding due to global warming. The growing length of satellite altimetry records provides a useful alternative to undertake sea level analyses. Altimetry data, spanning 1993–2019, are used herein to explore multi-timescale sea level variability near the south coast of Jamaica, in the northwest Caribbean. Caribbean basin dynamics and largescale forcing mechanisms, which could account for the variability, are also investigated. The results show that the average annual amplitude off the south coast of Jamaica is approximately 10 cm with a seasonal peak during the summer (July–August). The highest annual sea levels occur within the Caribbean storm season, adding to the annual risk. The annual trend over the 27 years is 3.3 ± 0.4 mm/yr when adjusted for Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA), instrumental drift, and accounting for uncertainties. This is comparable to mean global sea level rise, but almost twice the prior estimates for the Caribbean which used altimetry data up to 2010. This suggests an accelerated rate of rise in the Caribbean over the last decade. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) and correlation analyses show the long-term trend to be a basin-wide characteristic and linked to warming Caribbean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the period. When the altimetry data are detrended and deseasoned, the leading EOF mode has maximum loadings over the northwest Caribbean, including Jamaica, and exhibits interannual variability which correlates significantly with a tropical Pacific-tropical Atlantic SST gradient index, local wind strength, and the Caribbean Low Level Jet (CLLJ). Correlations with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in summer, seen in this and other studies, likely arise through the contribution of the ENSO to the SST gradient index and the ENSO's modulation of the CLLJ peak strength in July. The results demonstrate the usefulness of altimetry data for characterizing sea level risk on various timescales for small islands. They also suggest the potential for developing predictive models geared towards reducing those risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent hurricane losses in the New York Metropolitan area demonstrate its vulnerability to flood hazards. Long-term development and planning require predictions of low-probability high-consequence storm surge levels that account for climate change impacts. This requires simulating thousands of synthetic storms under a specific climate change scenario which requires high computational power. To alleviate this burden, we developed a machine learning-based predictive model. The training data set was generated using a high-fidelity hydrodynamic model including the effect of wind-generated waves. The machine learning model is then used to predict and compare storm surges over historical (1980–2000) and future (2080–2100) periods, considering the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. Our analysis encompassed 57 locations along the New York and New Jersey coastlines. The results show an increase along the southern coastline of New Jersey and inside Jamaica, Raritan, and Sandy Hook bays, while a decrease along the Long Island coastline and inland bays. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Caribbean region is highly vulnerable to multiple hazards. Resultant impacts may be derived from single or multiple cascading risks caused by hydrological-meteorological, seismic, geologic, or anthropological triggers, disturbances, or events. Studies suggest that event records and data related to hazards, risk, damage, and loss are limited in this region. National Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) planning and response require data of sufficient quantity and quality to generate actionable information, statistical inferences, and insights to guide continual policy improvements for effective DRR, national preparedness, and response in both time and space. To address this knowledge gap, we review the current state of knowledge, data, models, and tools, identifying potential opportunities, capacity needs, and long-term benefits for integrating Earth Observation (EO) understanding, data, models, and tools to further enhance and strengthen the national DRR framework using two common disasters in Jamaica: floods and landslides. This review serves as an analysis of the current state of DRR management and assess future opportunities. Equally, to illustrate and guide other United Nations Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) priority countries in the Pacific region, known as Small Island Developing States (SIDS), to grapple with threats of multiple and compounding hazards in the face of increasing frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme weather events, and climate change impact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water utilities' supply systems are vulnerable to several climate‐related hazards, including droughts, floods and cyclones. Here we propose a generally applicable framework for conducting multi‐hazard risk assessments of water supply systems and use it to quantify the impact of present and future climate extremes on the national water supply network in Jamaica. The proposed framework involves stress‐testing a model of the system with a large set of spatially coherent drought, cyclone and pluvial and fluvial flood events to calculate the number of water users whose supplies would be disrupted during an event, that is, the Customer disruption days (CDD). We estimate the total multi‐hazard annual expected disruption to be approximately 5 days per year per utility customer under present conditions. This is increased by a factor of between 2 and 2.5 when end‐of‐century climate scenarios are propagated through the model. Our analysis shows that more high probability drought events lead to greater CDD compared with asset damage events. However, extreme asset damage events, despite manifesting over shorter timescales (days) compared to drought events (months), can lead to more widespread CDD. This quantified risk framework would allow utility managers to compare the risk of both asset damage‐ and water shortage‐induced disruptions via a common, decision‐relevant metric. However, applications to other utilities would require tailored hazard modeling approaches. The proposed risk assessment is intended to inform prioritization of infrastructure investments, ranging from asset protection to drought mitigation projects, with the goal of enhancing water supply resilience in the face of a changing climate. Key Points: We propose a spatial multi‐hazard risk framework for analyzing present‐day and future climate risks to water usersWe propose the use of customer disruption days as a common metric for comparing different hazards impactsThe framework can be used by decision makers to prioritize investments across asset protection against flooding and cyclones, and drought mitigation options [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Thermophilization – changes in community composition towards greater relative abundances of species associated with warmer environments – has been described for plants and animals in many locations around the world. Disturbances of various kinds have increased rates of thermophilization in temperate sites, and this has been proposed, but not demonstrated, for some tropical environments. In this study, we tested whether disturbance by a category 4 hurricane in 1988 (Hurricane Gilbert) increased thermophilization in a Jamaican montane forest by using pre‐ and post‐hurricane data collected over four decades (1974–2014). We analysed tree species composition in permanent plots at ca 1580 m above sea level in Jamaica's Blue Mountains. There were 66 tree species with stem diameters ≥ 3 cm at breast height. We used published data on the altitudinal distribution of 62 species (94% of genetic individuals (genets)) to calculate the mean community altitude scores (MCAS) of the trees recorded in each census, as well as the MCAS of the survivors, recruits and dead trees after each decade. We found that thermophilization did occur (i.e. MCAS decreased significantly over time), and that this was due both to a decreasing MCAS of recruits through the four decades (significantly lower than expected in the last three decades) as well as a high MCAS of trees that died. Thermophilization was fastest in the post‐hurricane decade, during which time there was marked and significant increase in the MCAS of dead trees; this change was above and beyond expectations of long‐term successional dynamics. The rate of compositional change equates to an overall decrease in MCAS of 1.6 m yr−1 over the forty‐year study period. We conclude that this Jamaican montane forest is undergoing thermophilization (likely due to rising temperature) and that the hurricane‐caused disturbance accelerated thermophilization through differential mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is now widely recognized that climate change is likely to have detrimental impacts across the Caribbean region, with the burden likely to fall disproportionately on the most vulnerable segments of society. It is therefore an appropriate time to ask whether the frameworks that lie behind climate change discourse and policy are consistent with the demands of social and environmental justice. In this paper, we use climate justice as a lens for evaluating three prominent frameworks for addressing climate change, those of adaptation, resilience, and vulnerability. Each of these discursive frameworks, we argue, can contribute to our understanding of climate change, but they do not all incorporate justice concerns to the same degree. In order to illustrate this, we examine the justice implications of using each of the three frameworks to assess a case study of agricultural transformation in Southwestern Jamaica. Farmers in this region have adapted to changing climate conditions in a variety of ways, including the use of new agricultural technology. The ability of many farmers to take advantage of such innovations, however, is constrained by the underlying landscape of vulnerability within the region. After interpreting this example from the perspectives of adaptation, resilience and vulnerability, we conclude that all three paradigms are capable of calling attention to climate justice issues, but only in the vulnerability perspective are such issues intrinsic. We believe, therefore, that a greater attention to vulnerability within Caribbean climate policy holds the potential to advance the goals of climate justice within the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a site suitability model for growing coffee in the island of Jamaica and how it can be used to assist the development of the Jamaican coffee industry as it seeks to regain the presence it once had in the specialty coffee market. Home to the Jamaica Blue Mountain coffee – one of the world's most exotic and expensive coffees, the industry has struggled in face of increased competition in the specialty coffee market and increasing costs of production. This decline in competitive advantage has forced stakeholders to seek innovative means to remain viable. This suitability model integrated the perspectives of local coffee stakeholders using the analytic hierarchy process to determine the weights for the biophysical and infrastructure criteria used in the suitability analysis. The results indicated that the most suitable locations for growing coffee in the island were in the mountainous core of central and eastern Jamaica, especially in and around the Jamaica Blue Mountain coffee region and the hills of south-central Jamaica. The results also highlighted areas with limited coffee production potential across the island. This model lays the groundwork for potential applications of the model such as its use in policy making decisions and scenario planning as the industry contemplates the possible impacts of climate change on coffee growing regions across the island. This suitability model promises to be a stepping stone in the creation of novel applications of geospatial technology in agriculture within small islands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coral reefs throughout the world are under severe challenges from many environmental factors. This paper quantifies the size structure of populations and the growth rates of corals from 2000 to 2008 to test whether the Discovery Bay coral colonies showed resilience in the face of multiple acute stressors of hurricanes and bleaching. There was a reduction in numbers of colonies in the smallest size class for all the species at all the sites in 2006, after the mass bleaching of 2005, with subsequent increases for all species at all sites in 2007 and 2008. Radial growth rates (mm yr¿1) of non-branching corals and linear extension rates (mm yr¿1) of branching corals calculated on an annual basis from 2000¿2008 showed few significant differences either spatially or temporally. At Dairy Bull reef, live coral cover increased from 13±5% in 2006 to 20±9% in 2007 and 31±7% in 2008, while live Acropora species increased from 2±2% in 2006 to 10±4% in 2007 and 22±7% in 2008. These studies indicate good levels of coral resilience on the fringing reefs around Discovery Bay in Jamaica. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper examines a pathway for small islands to replace fossil fuels by renewable sources, such as wind and solar, up to 100% to economically achieve energy security and satisfy The Paris Agreement to limit temperature rise as close as possible to 1.5 °C, in an economically beneficial manner. Using Jamaica, as an example, it is shown that the introduction of intermittent renewable energy to an island grid, which is electrically isolated, relying totally on itself for backup, causes serious frequency fluctuations and load shedding. Simulations show that a Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) using Li-ion batteries can be employed to economically overcome these problems. It is also noted that the cost of batteries with longer discharge capacity is on the decline and their use is expected to be become economical in about 10 years. Looking at the reported pathway to satisfy The Paris Agreement, a 2-phase pathway is suggested. In the Phase 1 (2020–2030) 30% integration of intermittent renewables with BESS backup can be implemented in a manner that is not economically burdensome whilst the remaining fossil fuel system can provide the firm energy needed. In Phase 2 (2030–2055), more renewables can be implemented, provided sufficient long term storage, including batteries, can be added to provide firm energy. By 2030 the cost of such storage is expected to fall resulting in increased deployment without a financial burden to the islands. Ideally, during the period 2020 to 2055, there should be no new additions of fossil fuel plants and retiring plants should be replaced by renewable energy plants; although an account is necessary for plants already in the planning and development stages. The leeway period of 2020–2030 should be used for the preparation and planning of adding up to 100% renewables in all sectors. • Sensitivity of isolated island grid systems to intermittent renewables. • Demonstration of frequency regulation control using simulations of Li-ion battery storage. • Mitigation pathway utilizing 100% renewable to limit temperature rise to 1.5″.C [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The authors define a spatio-statistical response of hurricane frequency to the solar cycle. Previous research indicates reduced (increased) hurricane intensities and frequency in the western (eastern) tropical Atlantic. However, no formal quantitative relationship has been spatially established between hurricane frequency and solar activity. The authors use a Bayesian hierarchical space-time model, an increasingly popular approach due to its advantage in facilitating regression modeling of space-time phenomena in the context of large data sets. Regional hurricane frequency over the period 1866-2010 is examined in response to September sunspot number (SSN) while controlling for other relevant climate factors. The response features a 13 % reduction in probability of annual hurricane occurrence for southeastern Cuba, the southern Bahama islands, Haiti, and Jamaica when the SSN is 80 sunspots. In contrast, hurricane risk in regions of the southeastern Atlantic is predicted to increase by 73 % when the SSN is 160 sunspots. The model can be ported to explore other relationships over contiguous space. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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