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Significant challenges from changes in climate and land use face sustainable water use in the Canadian Prairies ecozone. The region has experienced significant warming since the mid-20th century, and continued warming of an additional 2 ∘ C by 2050 is expected. This paper aims to enhance understanding of climate controls on Prairie basin hydrology through numerical model experiments. It approaches this by developing a basin-classification-based virtual modelling framework for a portion of the Prairie region and applying the modelling framework to investigate the hydrological sensitivity of one Prairie basin class (High Elevation Grasslands) to changes in climate. High Elevation Grasslands dominate much of central and southern Alberta and parts of south-western Saskatchewan, with outliers in eastern Saskatchewan and western Manitoba. The experiments revealed that High Elevation Grassland snowpacks are highly sensitive to changes in climate but that this varies geographically. Spring maximum snow water equivalent in grasslands decreases 8 % ∘ C -1 of warming. Climate scenario simulations indicated that a 2 ∘ C increase in temperature requires at least an increase of 20 % in mean annual precipitation for there to be enough additional snowfall to compensate for enhanced melt losses. The sensitivity in runoff is less linear and varies substantially across the study domain: simulations using 6 ∘ C of warming, and a 30 % increase in mean annual precipitation yields simulated decreases in annual runoff of 40 % in climates of the western Prairie but 55 % increases in climates of eastern portions. These results can be used to identify those areas of the region that are most sensitive to climate change and highlight focus areas for monitoring and adaptation. The results also demonstrate how a basin classification-based virtual modelling framework can be applied to evaluate regional-scale impacts of climate change with relatively high spatial resolution in a robust, effective and efficient manner. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The soybean industry in Canada is seeking opportunities to expand cultivation due to economic and environmental benefits of growing soybean. Climate projections indicate that soybean expansion into Saskatchewan would be possible with the increases in the available crop heat units under a future warmer climate; however, crop water availability could limit yields. Using a crop growth model, we simulated soybean yields within the Canadian Regional Agricultural Model regions in Saskatchewan for the near-term (2030s), mid-term (2050s), and distant future (2070s) periods under different climate scenarios. Soybean yields were simulated without water stress (potential yield), with water stress (rainfed yield), and under full and partial irrigation scenarios. Irrigation water needs were estimated under the irrigation scenarios and irrigation water availability was discussed. Our results suggest that reasonable and likely more profitable yields (∼2000–2500 kg ha−1) can be achieved under rainfed conditions in the Black soil zone neighbouring Manitoba but soybean production would be less favourable in the Dark Brown soil zone and least favourable in the Brown soil zone. Northeastern regions in the Black soil zone were found to be suitable for growing soybean cultivars in the maturity group (MG) 0 in the distant future and MG 00 in the mid-term under the medium–high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Soybean would still not be suitable in the northwestern region. Our results indicate that regions in central Saskatchewan requiring 120–170 mm of irrigation are more likely to benefit from the proposed Lake Diefenbaker Irrigation Projects in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the perceptions and future imaginaries of a group of union members in Manitoba, Canada, concerning climate change, energy transition, and the roles of unions and workers in climate politics. Based on interviews with 30 rank and file workers carried out through the winter of 2020, the results suggest some starting points for a more active engagement between the labour movement and climate politics—an engagement that is central to climate justice, and that becomes more vital every moment as workers both participate through their waged labour in the production of ecological crisis, and stand to suffer intensely from both climate change and from elite-led energy transitions. • Unionized workers broadly agree with the characterization of "climate emergency." • Participants connect to climate change through expanded spatial and temporal considerations. • There is broad agreement that climate change is a key consideration in unions' protective role. • Union workers' future imaginaries of energy transition do not frequently engage with "system change" narratives. • Union workers characterize transition as something done to, rather than by, workers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Northern forested ecosystems are predicted to change dramatically in response to climate change during the next century. The purpose of this paper was to use logistic regression analysis to model the effects of climate and topography on the spatial distribution of the northern forest around Churchill, Manitoba, Canada. Climate maps were modeled using kriging interpolation of actual climate data collected from 34 long-term monitoring sites distributed throughout the study area, and topographic information was derived from commercially available digital elevation models. Five of the 18 independent variables contributed appreciably (p < 0.15) to the final logistic regression model: distance from the Hudson Bay coast, summer soil temperature, snow density, slope, and snow water equivalent. Current forest distribution was predicted with 66% accuracy using the final model, and Kappa statistics indicated significant agreement between modeled and actual forest extents. Significant explanatory variables demonstrate important synergistic effects of Hudson Bay, wind, and snow in determining forest distribution. Modeled forest extents were further south than actual forest limits, which suggest that the treeline is not likely in equilibrium with the present climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study evaluated the effects of climate perturbations on snowmelt, soil moisture, and streamflow generation in small Canadian Prairies basins using a modelling approach based on classification of basin biophysical characteristics. Seven basin classes that encompass the entirety of the Prairies Ecozone in Canada were determined by cluster analysis of these characteristics. Individual semi-distributed virtual basin (VB) models representing these classes were parameterized in the Cold Regions Hydrological Model (CRHM) platform, which includes modules for snowmelt and sublimation, soil freezing and thawing, actual evapotranspiration (ET), soil moisture dynamics, groundwater recharge, and depressional storage dynamics including fill and spill runoff generation and variable connected areas. Precipitation (P) and temperature (T) perturbation scenarios covering the range of climate model predictions for the 21st century were used to evaluate climate sensitivity of hydrological processes in individual land cover and basin types across the Prairies Ecozone. Results indicated that snow accumulation in wetlands had a greater sensitivity to P and T than that in croplands and grasslands in all basin types. Wetland soil moisture was also more sensitive to T than the cropland and grassland soil moisture. Jointly influenced by land cover distribution and local climate, basin-average snow accumulation was more sensitive to T in the drier and grassland-characterized basins than in the wetter basins dominated by cropland, whilst basin-average soil moisture was most sensitive to T and P perturbations in basins typified by pothole depressions and broad river valleys. Annual streamflow had the greatest sensitivities to T and P in the dry and poorly connected Interior Grasslands (See Fig. 1) basins but the smallest in the wet and well-connected Southern Manitoba basins. The ability of P to compensate for warming-induced reductions in snow accumulation and streamflow was much higher in the wetter and cropland-dominated basins than in the drier and grassland-characterized basins, whilst decreases in cropland soil moisture induced by the maximum expected warming of 6 ∘ C could be fully offset by a P increase of 11 % in all basins. These results can be used to (1) identify locations which had the largest hydrological sensitivities to changing climate and (2) diagnose underlying processes responsible for hydrological responses to expected climate change. Variations of hydrological sensitivity in land cover and basin types suggest that different water management and adaptation methods are needed to address enhanced water stress due to expected climate change in different regions of the Prairies Ecozone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reports on a case study of degrading permafrost beneath a road embankment in Northern Manitoba, Canada. Field measurements of ground temperatures for a three-year monitoring period have been used in calibrating the geothermal model developed to reproduce the conditions and trends in the subsurface thermal regime beneath the embankment. The numerical model was used to investigate the future ground thermal regime of the foundation and evaluate the potential impacts of embankment construction and climate change. Particular interest was paid to the foundation soil near the toe of embankment where relatively rapid permafrost degradation was occurring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract This paper presents an empirical model of net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) developed for a subarctic fen near Churchill, Manitoba. The model with observed data helps explain the interannual variability in growing season NEE. Five years of tower-flux data are used to test and examine the seasonal behaviour of the model simulations. Processes controlling the observed interannual variability of CO2 exchange at the fen are examined by exploring the sensitivity of the model to changes in air temperature, precipitation and leaf area index. Results indicate that the sensitivity of NEE to changing environmental controls is complex and varies interannually depending on the initial conditions of the wetland. Changes in air temperature and the timing of precipitation events have a strong influence on NEE, which is largely manifest in gross ecosystem photosynthesis (GEP). Climate change scenarios indicate that warmer air temperatures will increase carbon acquisition during wet years but may act to reduce wetland carbon storage in years that experience a large water deficit early in the growing season. Model simulations for this subarctic sedge fen indicate that carbon acquisition is greatest during wet and warm conditions. This suggests therefore that carbon accumulation was greatest at this subarctic fen during its early developmental stages when hydroclimatic conditions were relatively wet and warm at approximately 2500 years before present. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Species with especially close dependence on the environment to meet physiological requirements, such as ectotherms, are highly susceptible to the impacts of climate change. Climate change is occurring rapidly in the Subarctic and Arctic, but there is limited knowledge on ectotherm physiology in these landscapes. We investigated how environmental conditions and habitat characteristics influence the physiological conditions and habitat use of wood frogs (Rana sylvatica) in a Subarctic landscape near Churchill, Manitoba (Canada). We used plaster models to estimate water loss rates and surface body temperatures among different habitat types and at specific locations used by radio‐tracked frogs. Water loss (R2 = 0.67) and surface temperature (R2 = 0.80) of plaster models was similar to that of live frogs. Model‐based water loss rates were greater in tundra habitat than in boreal forest and ecotone habitat. Habitat use of wood frogs was strongly tied with available surface moisture and decreased water loss rates that were observed with plaster models. Environmental conditions, such as wind speed and ground temperature, explained 58% and 91% of the variation in water balance and temperature of plaster models. Maintaining physiological conditions may be challenging for semi‐aquatic ectotherms in environments vulnerable to future climate change. The ability to predict physiological conditions based on environmental conditions, as demonstrated in our study, can help understand how wildlife will respond to climatic changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the impacts of climate change on the hydrology and soil thermal regime of 10 sub‐arctic watersheds (northern Manitoba, Canada) using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. We utilize statistically downscaled and bias‐corrected forcing datasets based on 17 general circulation model (GCM) ‐ representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to run the VIC model for three 30‐year periods: a historical baseline (1981–2010: 1990s), and future projections (2021–2050: 2030s and 2041–2070: 2050s), under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. Future warming increases the average soil column temperature by ~2.2°C in the 2050s and further analyses of soil temperature trends at three different depths show the most pronounced warming in the top soil layer (1.6°C 30‐year−1 in the 2050s). Trend estimates of mean annual frozen soil moisture fraction in the soil column show considerable changes from 0.02 30‐year−1 (1990s) to −0.11 30‐year−1 (2050s) across the study area. Soil column water residence time decreases significantly (by 5 years) during the 2050s when compared with the 1990s as soil thawing intensifies the infiltration process thereby contributing to faster conversion to baseflow. Future warming results in 40%–50% more baseflow by the 2050s, where it increases substantially by 19.7% and 46.3% during the 2030s and 2050s, respectively. These results provide crucial information on the potential future impacts of warming soil temperatures on the hydrology of sub‐arctic watersheds in north‐central Canada and similar hydro‐climatic regimes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In this study, a large-scale integrated modeling system (IMS) was developed for supporting climate-change impact analysis and adaptation planning under multi-level uncertainties. A number of methodologies were seamlessly incorporated within IMS, including fuzzy-interval inference method (FIIM), inexact energy model (IEM), and uncertainty analysis. The system could (i) encompass multiple technologies, energy resources, and sub-sectors, and climate change impact analysis into a general modeling framework, (ii) address interactions of climate change impacts on multiple energy sub-sectors and resources within an EMS, (iii) identify optimal adaptation strategies of an EMS to climate change impact through a two-step procedure, (iv) deal with multiple levels of uncertain information associated with processes of climate change impact analysis and adaptation planning, and (v) seamlessly combine climate change impact analysis results with inexact adaptation planning. It could provide decision makers a comprehensive view on the EMS as well as the corresponding adaptation schemes under climate change, greatly improving the robustness and completeness of the decision-making processes. The generated solutions can provide desired energy resource/service allocation with a minimized system cost, a maximized system reliability and a maximized energy security under varied climate change impact levels, as well as multiple levels of uncertainties. In a companion paper, the developed method is applied to a real case for the long-term planning of waste management in the Province of Manitoba, Canada. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Given the climate crisis and its cumulative impacts on public health, effective communication strategies that engage the public in adaptation and mitigation are critical. Many have argued that a health frame increases engagement, as do visual methodologies including online and interactive platforms, yet to date there has been limited research on audience responses to health messaging using visual interventions. This study explores public attitudes regarding communication tools focused on climate change and climate-affected Lyme disease through six focus groups (n = 61) in rural and urban southern Manitoba, Canada. The results add to the growing evidence of the efficacy of visual and storytelling methods in climate communications and argues for a continuum of mediums: moving from video, text, to maps. Findings underscore the importance of tailoring both communication messages and mediums to increase uptake of adaptive health and environmental behaviours, for some audiences bridging health and climate change while for others strategically decoupling them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forest managers are beginning to experiment with assisted migration (AM), the intentional movement of organisms to areas outside their historic range, as a pre-emptive adaptation to climate change. To date, AM studies have focused on species conservation, while AM in forestry has received little attention. Using Manitoba, Canada, as our study area, we developed a two-stage framework to evaluate North American tree species as AM candidates. Little’s (1971) range maps were used to characterize climatic ranges for 87 species, and GCM projections under RCP8.5 estimated potential future tree distributions for 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100. Traits for the resulting 26 candidate species were evaluated in eight categories, each divided into several response factors, to investigate management potential, adaptation and interspecific interactions, vulnerability to pests, diseases and natural disturbance, and range of soil conditions tolerated. Multivariate analyses were used to classify species into groups characterized by different combinations of management potential, tolerance for climate extremes, and relative vulnerability to disturbances, insects, and disease. These groupings could be used by managers in a variety of applications—commercial forestry, urban forests, or restoration—as an initial selection filter for AM candidates. Separate uncertainty scores in each category should allow users to independently judge the quality of information contributing to a given category. Although our framework was regionally focused, it could be readily adapted to selecting AM candidates elsewhere. We recommend that the framework be further field tested among different practitioners, modifying, editing, and adding to the list of categories and factors, as needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The article presents a study on the effect of weather conditions and climate drivers on the movement of Hudsonian Godwit (Limosa haemastica). The researcher conducted the project in Beluga River, Alaska and Churchill, Manitoba. He concludes that migratory species arrive 9 days earlier in Alaska, and 10 days later in Manitoba.

1. Processes of decomposition occur year-round in tundra ecosystems and respond quickly to seasonal changes. Characterizing the phenology of plant nutrient uptake in relation to these processes is essential to understanding the current and future productivity of Arctic ecosystems. 2. In wet sedge meadows located near Churchill, Manitoba, Canada, soil microbial biomass as well as inorganic and organic nutrient pools fluctuate seasonally, with late-winter peaks followed by declines of these variables during the early stages of soil thaw; however, it is unknown if the dominant plant in this community takes up nitrogen when levels of this nutrient are high but soil temperatures are 0 °C or below. 3. Stable isotope tracing was utilized by injecting 15NH4Cl into soil cores and incubating for 1 or 8 days during spring thaw to determine the short-term capacity for uptake and transport of inorganic nitrogen into Carex aquatilis (roots, shoots and rhizomes), moss and soil micro-organisms during this transitional time of year. 4. During three 8-day experimental trials in April and May 2007, C. aquatilis roots accumulated a substantial amount of the added nitrogen (33.5% increasing to 63.4%), when inorganic nitrogen was readily available in the soil, but declining. A smaller proportion of injected nitrogen was recovered from soil microbes (30% decreasing to 7%), and only trace amounts of injected 15N were measured in plant shoots, shoot bases, rhizomes and mosses (2% or less). 5. Synthesis. Shifting seasonal patterns in northern ecosystems resulting from climate change are likely to alter the progression of events that lead up to the summer growing season. A substantial pool of inorganic nitrogen resides temporarily in the soil at the end of winter, and we have shown here that plants are able to take up nitrogen at this time. Increases in the frequency and temperature highs of late-winter warming events are likely to trigger early episodes of soil thaw, potentially reducing the capacity of plants to take up this large ephemeral supply of nitrogen in early spring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a decadal (1994–2004) record of carbon dioxide flux in a 160-year-old black spruce forest/veneer bog complex in central Manitoba, Canada. The ecosystem shifted from a source (+41 g C m−2, 1995) to a sink (−21 g C m−2, 2004) of CO2 over the decade, with an average net carbon balance near zero. Annual mean temperatures increased 1–2° during the period, consistent with the decadal trend across the North American boreal biome. We found that ecosystem carbon exchange responded strongly to air temperature, moisture status, potential evapotranspiration, and summertime solar radiation. The seasonal cycle of ecosystem respiration significantly lagged that of photosynthesis, limited by the rate of soil thaw and the slow drainage of the soil column. Factors acting over long time scales, especially water table depth, strongly influenced the carbon budget on annual time scales. Net uptake was enhanced and respiration inhibited by multiple years of rainfall in excess of evaporative demand. Contrary to expectations, we observed no correlation between longer growing seasons and net uptake, possibly because of offsetting increases in ecosystem respiration. The results indicate that the interactions between soil thaw and water table depth provide critical controls on carbon exchange in boreal forests underlain by peat, on seasonal to decadal time scales, and these factors must be simulated in terrestrial biosphere models to predict response of these regions to future climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Borehole temperature depth profiles are commonly used to infer time variations in the ground surface temperature on centennial time scales. We compare different procedures to obtain a regional ground surface temperature history (GSTH) from an ensemble of borehole temperature depth profiles. We address in particular the question of selecting profiles that are not contaminated by non climatic surface perturbations and we compare the joint inversion of all the profiles with the average of individual inversions. Very few profiles of the Canadian data set meet the selection criteria (e.g. only 13 out of 73 profiles in Manitoba and Saskatchewan were retained). We show that the resolution and the stability of the inversion of selected profiles are much improved over those for a complete data set. When profiles have been selected, the average GSTH of individual inversions and the GSTH of the joint inversion are almost identical. This is not observed when the entire data set is inverted: the average of individual inversions is different from the joint inversion. We also show that the joint inversion of very noisy data sets does not improve the resolution but, on the contrary, causes strong instabilities in the inversion. When the profiles that are affected by noise can not be eliminated, averaging of the individual inversions yields the most stable result, but with very poor resolution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An original modeling framework for assessment of climate variation and change impacts on the performance of complex flood protection system has been implemented in the evaluation of the impact of climate variability and change on the reliability, vulnerability and resiliency of the Red River Basin flood protection system (Manitoba, Canada). The modeling framework allows for an evaluation of different climate change scenarios generated by the global climate models. Temperature and precipitation are used as the main factors affecting flood flow generation. System dynamics modeling approach proved to be of great value in the development of system performance assessment model. The most important impact of climate variability and change on hydrologic processes is reflected in the change of flood patterns: flood starting time, peak value and timing. The results show increase in the annual precipitation and the annual streamflow volume in the Red River basin under the future climate change scenarios. Most of the floods generated using three different climate models had an earlier starting time and peak time. The assessment of the performance of Red River flood protection system is based on the flood flows, the capacity of flood control structures and failure flow levels at different locations in the basin. In the Assiniboine River Basin, higher reliabilities at downstream locations are obtained indicating that Shellmouth reservoir plays an important role in reducing downstream flooding. However, a different trend was identified in the Red River Basin. The study results show that flood protection capacity of the Red River infrastructure is sufficient under low reliability criteria but may not be sufficient under high reliability criteria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

SummaryLandscape- and community-level CO2 measurements were made at a subarctic sedge fen near Churchill Manitoba during the 1997 growing season. Climatic conditions were warmer and drier than the 30-y normal. Landscape-scale micrometeorological measurements indicated that the wetland gained 49 g CO2 m-2 during the growing season. Chamber-scale measurements from the main vegetation community types showed that small hummocks (Carex spp. sites) dominated the CO2 exchange, yielding an effective scaling factor of 70%. Scaled parameters of two algorithms describing photosynthesis and respiration for each community type show strong similarity to those derived at the landscape level. Scaling photosynthesis, respiration, and net ecosystem CO2 exchange from the community to landscape-level over the season is within the maximum probable error of each methodological approach and helps substantiate the 1997 CO2 budget. We explore the equilibrium response of net ecosystem CO2 exchange of this fen to climatic change by examining the feedback of water table position on vegetation distribution and nitrogen availability. Based on the effective scaling factors computed for each community type, we hypothesize that a small decrease in mean water table position could nearly triple the net uptake of CO2 at this wetland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]