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Debate about irrigation development of water resources in northern Australia has been hampered by a lack of quantitative information to enable accurate assessment of the volume of water that could potentially be regulated in the ‘North’ (north of the tropic of Capricorn). Too often the debate focuses solely on streamflow volumes and quantities of runoff. In this paper we present simple calculations to estimate a representative irrigation requirement and the potential exploitable yield in each of the 12 drainage divisions of Australia in order to more fully inform this on-going debate. Environmental, social, cultural and economic considerations are not examined. The results indicate that, despite northern Australia generating approximately 64% of the continent’s runoff, only 45% of Australia’s potentially exploitable yield is located in that portion of Australia, due to unfavourable streamflow characteristics, storage constraints and large evaporation losses. If exploitable yield and irrigation requirement were the sole factors constraining sustainable irrigation, under a full development scenario, southern Australia could hypothetically support an area of irrigation about 60% greater than that of northern Australia (based on only 36% of the country’s runoff). Using ‘best estimates’ of rainfall and evapotranspiration projected under changes in climate resulting from a moderate emissions scenario, the percentage of Australia’s exploitable yield located in northern Australia is estimated to increase from 45% to 47% by the year 2050, which equates to a 2% increase to the percentage of Australia’s hypothetical area of irrigation that could be located in northern Australia. These results suggest that efforts towards achieving and developing sustainable irrigation practices in the South will remain most important in achieving Australia’s long term irrigation potential. This study also highlights the need for better regional scale information on the potential to regulate streamflow in Australia, under current and future climates. Such information is essential to guide policy and planning, future Government and private investment, and to manage community expectations of Australia’s water resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The majority of the world's population growth to 2050 is projected to occur in the tropics. Hence, there is a serious need for robust methods for undertaking water resource assessments to underpin the sustainable management of water in tropical regions. This paper describes the largest and most comprehensive assessment of the future impacts of runoff undertaken in a tropical region using conceptual rainfall-runoff models (RRMs). Five conceptual RRMs were calibrated using data from 115 streamflow gauging stations, and model parameters were regionalized using a combination of spatial proximity and catchment similarity. Future rainfall and evapotranspiration projections (denoted here as GCMES) were transformed to catchment-scale variables by empirically scaling (ES) the historical climate series, informed by 15 global climate models (GCMs), to reflect a 1°C increase in global average surface air temperature. Using the best-performing RRM ensemble, approximately half the GCMES used resulted in a spatially averaged increase in mean annual runoff (by up to 29%%) and half resulted in a decrease (by up to 26%%). However, ~70%% of the GCMES resulted in a difference of within ±5%% of the historical rainfall (1930-2007). The range in modeled impact on runoff, as estimated by five RRMs (for individual GCMES), was compared to the range in modeled runoff using 15 GCMES (for individual RRMs). For mid- to high runoff metrics, better predictions will come from improved GCMES projections. A new finding of this study is that in the wet-dry tropics, for extremely large runoff events and low flows, improvements are needed in both GCMES and rainfall-runoff modeling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary Floodplain wetlands and their hydrological connectivity with main river channels in the Australian wet–dry tropics are under increasing pressure from global climate change and water resource development, and there is a need for modelling tools to estimate the time dynamics of connectivity. This paper describes an integrated modelling framework combining conceptual rainfall–runoff modelling, river system modelling and hydrodynamic (HD) modelling to estimate hydrological connectivity between wetlands and rivers in the Flinders and Gilbert river catchments in northern Australia. Three historical flood events ranging from a mean annual flood to a 35-year return period flood were investigated using a two dimensional HD model (MIKE 21). Inflows from upstream catchments were estimated using a river network model. Local runoff within the HD modelling domain was simulated using the Sacramento rainfall–runoff model. The Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) derived 30 m DEM was used to reproduce floodplain topography, stream networks and wetlands in the HD model. The HD model was calibrated using stream gauge data and inundation maps derived from satellite (MODIS: MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) imagery. An algorithm was developed to combine the simulated water heights with the DEM to quantify inundation and flow connection between wetlands and rivers. The connectivity of 18 ecologically important wetlands on the Flinders floodplain and 7 on the Gilbert floodplain were quantified. The impacts of climate change and water resource development on connectivity to individual wetlands were assessed under a projected dry climate (2nd driest of 15 GCMs), wet climate (2nd wettest of 15 GCMs) and dam conditions. The results indicate that changes in rainfall under a wetter and drier future climate could have large impacts on area, duration and frequency of inundation and connectivity. Topographic relief, river bank elevation and flood magnitude were found to be the key factors contributing to the level of connectivity. Under a wetter future climate the average duration of connection of wetlands to the main river channel increased by 7% and under a drier climate it decreased by 18%. Construction of a 248 GL dam in the Flinders catchment and two (498 and 271 GL capacity) in the Gilbert catchment could reduce the average duration of connectivity by 1% and 2% in the Flinders and Gilbert catchments respectively. This information is potentially useful to future studies on the flood-dependent ecology in this region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights: [•] Impact of climate change and water policy on rice industry is empirically evaluated. [•] The paper finds stronger evidence of structural adjustments in rice farming system. [•] The regional CGE model demonstrate cost to the regional economy. [•] Relocation of some rice production to the northern Australia could offset potential impact. [•] Strong government support would be crucial to implement any possible relocation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Amphibians in hot climates may be able to avoid high temperatures by controlling their rates of heating. In northern Australia, invasive cane toads (Rhinella marina) experience hot dry conditions in newly-colonized (western) sites but milder conditions in longer-occupied (eastern) sites. Under standardized conditions, toads from western sites heated less rapidly than did conspecifics from an eastern site. The availability of free water slowed heating rates of eastern but not western toads. Thus, the colonization of climatically extreme sites has been accompanied by a rapid shift in the toads' ability to remain cool under hot conditions, even when free water is not available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Savanna landscapes are globally extensive and highly sensitive to climate change, yet the physical processes and climate phenomena which affect them remain poorly understood and therefore poorly represented in climate models. Both human populations and natural ecosystems are highly susceptible to precipitation variation in these regions due to the effects on water and food availability and atmosphere-biosphere energy fluxes. Here we quantify the relationship between climate phenomena and historical rainfall variability in Australian savannas and, in particular, how these relationships changed across a strong rainfall gradient, namely the North Australian Tropical Transect (NATT). Climate phenomena were described by 16 relevant climate indices and correlated against precipitation from 1900 to 2010 to determine the relative importance of each climate index on seasonal, annual and decadal timescales. Precipitation trends, climate index trends and wet season characteristics have also been investigated using linear statistical methods. In general, climate index-rainfall correlations were stronger in the north of the NATT where annual rainfall variability was lower and a high proportion of rainfall fell during the wet season. This is consistent with a decreased influence of the Indian-Australian monsoon from the north to the south. Seasonal variation was most strongly correlated with the Australian Monsoon Index, whereas yearly variability was related to a greater number of climate indices, predominately the Tasman Sea and Indonesian sea surface temperature indices (both of which experienced a linear increase over the duration of the study) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation indices. These findings highlight the importance of understanding the climatic processes driving variability and, subsequently, the importance of understanding the relationships between rainfall and climatic phenomena in the Northern Territory in order to project future rainfall patterns in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Geomorphic research across the semi-arid and wet-dry tropics of northern Australia has highlighted the role of the regions' estuaries as a 'canary in the coalmine' for climate variations, with dramatic structural shifts over the Holocene. This behaviour highlights the region's potential sensitivity to climate change and suggests the need for careful identification and interpretation of dynamics in the tropical and sub-tropical regions. However, analysis of change in these regions requires care, as a number of the basic tools applied to interpreting estuarine change in temperate regions are obscured, invalid or simply unavailable when applied in lower latitudes. This study provides a synthesis from a range of investigations across northern Australia and identifies characteristics to be considered when interpreting or predicting sub-millennial estuarine change in these regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article discusses a national emissions trading system implemented in Australia to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE). The system relies on Indigenous and socio-economically disadvantaged peoples in Northern Australia, who work as a community to manage landscape fires and reduce annual GHGE from savanna burning. Particular focus is given to the role of the government in establishing policies that aid rather than limit these peoples from achieving their goals, and on the concurrent regional developments in these areas.

Northern Australia's globally significant savannas and rivers face major threats, from cattle to weeds to land clearing to climate change. In the face of imperatives and pressures such as reducing carbon emissions, nature conservation, alleviating Indigenous disadvantage, the resources boom and global food security, how should development be managed to protect its globally significant ecosystems? Nine planks in a ‘Sustainable Northern Australia’ agenda are proposed: (i) enhance investment in mitigating pervasive landscape threats; (ii) strengthen support for Indigenous Caring for Country activities and incorporation of Traditional Ecological Knowledge into land management; (iii) align and strengthen invasive species control and management; (iv) facilitate new economic development pathways focused on sustainability; (v) build climate resilience by maintaining and enhancing landscape-scale connectivity; (vi) protect free-flowing rivers from dams and major water resource development; (vii) establish and effectively manage a large interconnected network of protected areas; (viii) develop cooperative governance arrangements; and (ix) enhance knowledge generation and research and monitoring capacity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]