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Climate change mitigation benefits from the land sector are not being fully realised because of uncertainty and controversy about the role of native forest management. The dominant policy view, as stated in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report, is that sustainable forest harvesting yielding wood products, generates the largest mitigation benefit. We demonstrate that changing native forest management from commercial harvesting to conservation can make an important contribution to mitigation. Conservation of native forests results in an immediate and substantial reduction in net emissions relative to a reference case of commercial harvesting. We calibrated models to simulate scenarios of native forest management for two Australian case studies: mixed-eucalypt in New South Wales and Mountain Ash in Victoria. Carbon stocks in the harvested forest included forest biomass, wood and paper products, waste in landfill, and bioenergy that substituted for fossil fuel energy. The conservation forest included forest biomass, and subtracted stocks for the foregone products that were substituted by non-wood products or plantation products. Total carbon stocks were lower in harvested forest than in conservation forest in both case studies over the 100-year simulation period. We tested a range of potential parameter values reported in the literature: none could increase the combined carbon stock in products, slash, landfill and substitution sufficiently to exceed the increase in carbon stock due to changing management of native forest to conservation. The key parameters determining carbon stock change under different forest management scenarios are those affecting accumulation of carbon in forest biomass, rather than parameters affecting transfers among wood products. This analysis helps prioritise mitigation activities to focus on maximising forest biomass. International forest-related policies, including negotiations under the UNFCCC, have failed to recognize fully the mitigation value of native forest conservation. Our analyses provide evidence for decision-making about the circumstances under which forest management provides mitigation benefits.

Objective: To provide the first document map of sustainability and decarbonisation actions across the Australian healthcare sector, as reported in publicly available documents online, and to identify gaps in actions. Methods: Healthcare providers were identified across all state and territories. Structured Google searches between August and December 2022 were followed by document searches. Updates were undertaken, most recently in December 2023. Targeted documents included position statements, strategies, and reports. Key points from these documents pertaining to sustainability and/or decarbonisation were extracted and descriptively analysed. Results: A total of 294 documents were included, mostly focused on power generation, transport, building design, and circular procurement/waste pathways. In contrast, relatively few plans for decarbonisation of clinical care were identified (n = 42). National and two state governments (New South Wales, Western Australia) have established healthcare sustainability and decarbonisation units, and two further states have publicly committed to doing so (Queensland, Tasmania). However, these documents generally reported separate, siloed actions. While attempts were made to make this review comprehensive, some documents may have been missed or are only available inside an organisation, and new actions will continue to emerge. Conclusion: Broad sustainability plans have been developed by many healthcare providers; however, to achieve net zero, decarbonising of clinical practices is also needed, and this is where the least action is currently occurring. To decarbonise clinical care, the sector needs to come together in a more coordinated way. What is known about the topic? Little is known about what actions are occurring to make healthcare more sustainable and to reduce the carbon footprint of healthcare in Australia. What does this paper add? This paper provides a snapshot of publicly available documents from healthcare providers and professional organisations as they relate to healthcare sustainability and helps reveal the gaps and siloed nature of current actions. What are the implications for practitioners? This paper can help jurisdictions identify gaps or areas for improvement and may aid in targeted and coordinated interventions, especially as they relate to decarbonised clinical care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Blue carbon ecosystems (BCEs), such as mangroves, saltmarshes, and seagrasses, are important nature-based solutions for climate change mitigation and adaptation but are threatened by degradation. Effective BCE restoration requires strategic planning and site selection to optimise outcomes. We developed a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based multi-criteria decision support tool to identify suitable areas for BCE restoration along the 2512 km-long coastline of Victoria, Australia. High-resolution spatial data on BCE distribution, coastal geomorphology, hydrodynamics, and land tenure were integrated into a flexible spatial model that distinguishes between passive and active restoration suitability. The tool was applied to identify high-priority locations for mangrove, saltmarsh, and seagrass restoration across different scenarios. Results indicate substantial potential for BCE restoration in Victoria, with 33,253 ha of suitable area identified, mostly (>97%) on public land, which aligned with the selection criteria used in the tool. Restoration opportunities are concentrated in bays and estuaries where historical losses have been significant. The mapped outputs provide a decision-support framework for regional restoration planning, while the tool itself can be adapted to other geographies. By integrating multiple spatial criteria and distinguishing between passive and active restoration, our approach offers a new method for targeting BCE restoration and informing resource allocation. The identified restoration potential will also require collaboration with coastal managers and communities, and consideration of socio-economic factors. With further refinements, such as incorporating multi-criteria decision analysis techniques, GIS-based tools can help catalyse strategic blue carbon investments and contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation goals at different spatial scales. This study highlights the value of spatial identification for BCE restoration and provides a transferable framework for other regions., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare the following financial interests/personal relationships which may be considered as potential competing interests:Peter I. Macreadie reports financial support was provided by Australian Research Council. Stacey M. Trevathan-Tackett reports financial support was provided by Australian Research Council. If there are other authors, they declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

This paper presents a method to analyze and improve the set of equations constituting a rainfall‐runoff model structure based on a combination of a data assimilation algorithm and polynomial updates to the state equations. The method, which we have called "Data Assimilation Informed model Structure Improvement" (DAISI) is generic, modular, and demonstrated with an application to the GR2M model and 201 catchments in South‐East Australia. Our results show that the updated model generated with DAISI generally performed better for all metrics considered included Kling‐Gupta Efficiency, NSE on log transform flow and flow duration curve bias. In addition, the elasticity of modeled runoff to rainfall is higher in the updated model, which suggests that the structural changes could have a significant impact on climate change simulations. Finally, the DAISI diagnostic identified a reduced number of update configurations in the GR2M structure with distinct regional patterns in three sub‐regions of the modeling domain (Western Victoria, central region, and Northern New South Wales). These configurations correspond to specific polynomials of the state variables that could be used to improve equations in a revised model. Several potential improvements of DAISI are proposed including the use of additional observed variables such as actual evapotranspiration to better constrain internal model fluxes. Plain Language Summary: This paper presents a data‐driven method to improve rainfall‐runoff models used to generate future water resources scenario in climate change studies. The method, which we have called "Data Assimilation Informed model Structure Improvement" (DAISI) is generic, modular, and demonstrated with an application to monthly streamflow simulations over a large data set of catchments in South‐East Australia. Our results show that DAISI improves model performance for a wide range of metrics and increases the sensitivity of the model to climate inputs, which is critical in climate change scenarios. Finally, the improvements identified by DAISI take a simple mathematical form with distinct regional patterns in three sub‐regions of the study domain (Western Victoria, central region, and Northern New South Wales). Several improvements of DAISI are discussed including the inclusion of additional observed variables such as evapotranspiration to better constrain model simulations. Key Points: Data Assimilation Informed model Structure Improvement method diagnoses hydrological model structures by combining data assimilation with a polynomial update of state equationsThe method was applied to the GR2M rainfall‐runoff model with significantly improved streamflow simulations in 201 Australian catchmentsThe method identified updates to state equations with marked regional characteristics that could guide future improvement of GR2M [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The tropical and warm-temperate eastern Australian muricid snail Tenguella marginalba (Blainville, 1832), unknown in Victoria prior to 1982, is formally reported as established in far eastern Victoria. It also occurs in southernmost New South Wales. The Marine Research Group of the Field Naturalists Club of Victoria (MRG) first detected it at Mallacoota in 1982, and subsequent surveys by the MRG and others have confirmed its local persistence. This paper maps its appearance and range in Victoria over time, based on MRG records and other literature references. A possible cause for its Victorian incursion is the warming of the Eastern Australian Current through climate change. Recent Victorian intertidal records of other warm-temperate marine invertebrates not typically found in eastern Victoria are provided as possible co-examples of this process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduces and analyzes fire climate regimes, steady-state conditions that govern the behavior of fire weather. A simple model representing fire climate was constructed by regressing high-quality regional climate averages against the station-averaged annual Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) for Victoria, Australia. Four FFD indices for fire years 1957–2021 were produced for 10 regions. Regions with even coverage of station-averaged total annual FFDI (ΣFFDI) from 1971–2016 exceeded Nash–Sutcliffe efficiencies of 0.84, validating its widespread application. Data were analyzed for shifts in mean, revealing regime shifts that occurred between 1996 and 2003 in the southern states and 2012–2013 in Queensland. ΣFFDI shifted up by ~25% in SE Australia to 8% in the west; by approximately one-third in the SE to 7% in the west for days above high fire danger; by approximately half in the SE to 11% in the west for days above very high, with a greater increase in Tasmania; and by approximately three-quarters in the SE to 9% in the west for days above severe FFDI. Attribution of the causes identified regime shifts in the fire season maximum temperature and a 3 p.m. relative humidity, with changing drought factor and rainfall patterns shaping the results. The 1:10 fire season between Regimes 1 and 2 saw a three to seven times increase with an average of five. For the 1:20 fire season, there was an increase of 2 to 14 times with an average of 8. Similar timing between shifts in the Australian FFDI and the global fire season length suggests that these changes may be global in extent. A trend analysis will substantially underestimate these changes in risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper shows how multispecies collaboratories work to complexify understandings of shared space with more-than-human others through collective inquiry and experimentation. Recognizing tensions produced through engaging childhood geographies research on stolen land, it proposes multispecies collaboratories as inextricably situated within the uneven flows of colonization, urban sprawl, and climate change. The authors present six collaboratory sticking points – the politics of green, confronted by the unexpected, bearing witness, boundary bursting, root problems, and troubling entanglement – to highlight possibilities and incommensurabilities inherent within. Sharing moments on Anishnaabe, Attawandaron, Lūnaapéewak, and Haudenosaunee territories in London, Ontario, and lək̓ʷəŋən and WSÁNEĆ territories in Victoria, British Columbia, they take a common worlding approach to reconsidering young children's multispecies relations as always and already political, multifarious world-making forces. They argue for multispecies collaboratories as small but significant sites for unhinging children's geographies from neoliberal, colonial logics, asking: What kinds of experimentation make it possible to activate a collective sense of relationality and reciprocity with the myriad of creatures with whom children share space? What is required of us to do so without retooling the colonial logics that contribute to the erasure of Indigenous peoples, more-than-human kinships, and connections to place? [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The number of people who live in bushfire-prone areas around the world is growing. In Australia, in the states of Victoria and New South Wales, over 1.5 million people live in areas rated as high to extreme bushfire risk in (SGS Economics and Planning 2019). As effects of climate change increase the size and severity of bushfires, and a greater number of people move into these at-risk areas, there is a growing imperative to understand the likely evacuation outcomes of bushfire-prone communities under various fire scenarios. This paper introduces a freely available simulation platform called WUI-NITY that can be used by evacuation planners and decisionmakers to forecast evacuation behaviour within affected areas, and in turn, better prepare for and respond to future bushfire events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While accounts of urban climate change governance and planning are growing, there is a need for further conceptual and empirical work to better understand processes of change and uptake across a range of local responses. This paper uses the Council Alliance for a Sustainable Built Environment (CASBE) as an urban experiment seeking to influence development and planning decisions to improve sustainability outcomes in the built environment in the State of Victoria, Australia. The evaluation is structured using Luederitz et al.'s tentative evaluative scheme for sustainability transition experiments. This paper also seeks to test, reflect, and further develop the scheme by highlighting the challenge of evaluating unbounded and not necessarily purposefully designed experiments. Finally, this paper calls for developing an approach to better reveal the political, social, and institutional complexities influencing the potential of experiments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Australia's natural capital is under growing cumulative pressure from land use change and intensive agriculture, fishery, forestry, and urban sprawl. This consequently reduces the benefits and services that it provides. This paper firstly assessed how current trends of land-use change have an impact on the natural capital loss in South Victoria, Australia during 2006-2016. Then in order to increase natural capital inherent value and to ensure that natural capital is multifunctional, a system of Blue-Green Infrastructure is designed within the current natural capital of Tarwin Lower, in Victoria. Given that natural capital area is declining in Australia, incorporating designed elements into existing natural capital to create multifunctional natural capital, enables maximising the supply and value of ecosystem services in order to meet the demands of a growing population. Here, three ecosystem services (stormwater abatement, water quality improvement, and water supply services) were compared in terms of existing natural capital or with integrated Blue-Green Infrastructure elements to create multifunctional natural capital system. The results indicate that planning Blue-Green Infrastructure will enhance multiple aspects of regional sustainability and resilience in the Tarwin catchment and will maximise the multifunctionality of the natural capital. Finally, the paper simulates the cost-benefit analysis for the implementation of Blue-Green Infrastructure to show that it is a cost-effective and sustainable solution to cope with the current demographic, economic and agricultural trends, which affect natural capital. This paper confirms that in order to provide ecosystem services for extra demands of growing inhabitants, Blue-Green Infrastructure networks require to be extended in the Victoria State of Australia to compensate natural capital and ecosystem service losses due to the regional and urban development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Geographer C. W. Thornthwaite proposed in 1948 a moisture index called Thornthwaite Moisture Index ( TMI) as part of a water balance model for a new classification system for climate. The importance of TMI climatic classification has been recognised in many areas of knowledge and practice worldwide over the last 60 years. However, although past climate research was focused on developing adequate methods for climate classification, current research is more concerned with understanding the patterns of climate change. The use of TMI as an indicator for climate change is still an incipient area of research. The contributions of this paper are twofold. First, it is to fully document a methodology based on geostatistics adopted to produce a time series of TMI maps that are accurate and have high spatial resolution. The state of Victoria, in Australia, over the last century, is used as the case study. Second, by analysing these maps, the paper presents a general evaluation of the spatial patterns found in Victoria related to moisture variability across space and over time. Some potential implications of the verified moisture changes are discussed, and a number of ideas for further development are suggested. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores community-level action in relation to socially based climate change adaptations for vulnerable citizens—older people in particular. While awareness of risk and adaptation has increased in various institutions across Australia, the translation of awareness into action is limited, particularly in the area of socially based adaptive measures for the most vulnerable. Through content analysis of local government documents in two major Australian cities, this paper assesses the extent of action and identifies trends and strategies in relation to social adaptation. Findings indicate varying levels of action and some examples of "best practice," but overall, evidence indicates more effort is needed at the community level. The role of the social work profession in challenging and broadening discourse is also explored especially in terms of highlighting the social impacts of climate change in future policy development, community action, and initiatives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper considers key drivers to climate policy development with an emphasis on the role of a jurisdiction's underlying energy resource. The states of Hawaii in the United States and Victoria in Australia provide an insightful comparative case study given their differing energy resources: Hawaii has no native fossil fuel resources but abundant renewable energy options while Victoria has an economy traditionally reliant on cheap, plentiful coal. The Advocacy Coalition Framework is applied to analyze why the two states, despite the different incentives provided by their energy resources, developed similar climate policies in the earlier period of policy response to global warming. Analysis finds the stable parameter of energy resources is counterbalanced by other policy drivers including public opinion, leadership and, in particular, features of policy-making particular to the subnational level that provide a different context for climate policy development to that offered at the national level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is about the identification of the changing world climate drivers and speculation concerning the future impact such drivers will have on countries in the southern hemisphere, especially Australia and New Zealand. A focus for the above is a case study of climate change which has induced severe hardships in the Bendigo region of Victoria, Australia. The authors are of the opinion this experience, in this extremely climate sensitive agricultural area, is a forerunner to what could occur to many regions in the southern hemisphere. The case study shows the vulnerability of communities to instruments of governance established during periods of stability and urges the urgent need for modified governance instruments during periods of rapid climatic change. The paper commences the discussion about the meaning, relevance and reality of sustainability for communities during times of climatic uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reports research into adaptation to climate change for regional tourism destinations. It explains the application of a regional tourism adaptation framework model to the Surf Coast destination, within the state of Victoria, Australia. It then examines the usefulness of the framework model in guiding a vulnerability resilience assessment of the destination and developing strategies to increase the destinations resilience, resistance and readiness. A Delphi study was conducted, using a panel of experts, to determine the major risks and opportunities for tourism in the region as well as appropriate adaptation options. Although many of the findings focused on the best way to manage the negative bio-physical impacts of climate change, such as increased bushfire risk or more frequent and intense storms, several opportunities also became apparent including the potential to reduce seasonality. Tourism destination management is already a complex area and the introduction of climate change provides yet another challenge for managers and policy-makers. Consequently, the development and use of a regional adaptation framework can play an important role in assisting destination planning and management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change poses serious threats to human health and well-being. It exacerbates existing health inequities, impacts on the social determinants of health and disproportionately affects vulnerable populations. In the Australian region these include remote Aboriginal communities, Pacific Island countries and people with low incomes. Given health promotion's remit to protect and promote health, it should be well placed to respond to emerging climate-related health challenges. Yet, to date, there has been little evidence to demonstrate this. This paper draws on the findings of a qualitative study conducted in Victoria, Australia to highlight that; while there is clearly a role for health promotion in climate change mitigation and adaptation at the national and international levels, there is also a need for the engagement of health promoters at the community level. This raises several key issues for health promotion practice. To be better prepared to respond to climate change, health promotion practitioners first need to re-engage with the central tenets of the Ottawa Charter, namely the interconnectedness of humans and the natural environment and, secondly, the need to adopt ideas and frameworks from the sustainability field. The findings also open up a discussion for paradigmatic shifts in health promotion thinking and acting in the context of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The bird fauna of Melbourne has changed in many ways since the 19th century, and this paper documents some of these changes using Keartland's paper as a benchmark for the 19th century, along with our own experience for recent decades. Woodland birds declined substantially as woodlands were cleared in the 19th century, and several species became locally extinct. Farmland birds prospered and then declined as farmland was converted to housing. Some forest birds colonised gardens and parks as trees and shrubs matured through the 20th century. Planting of native shrubs has benefited some species such as Little Wattlebird, and complex competitive interactions between aggressive honeyeaters and other birds are involved in shaping the bird fauna and the ecosystem. Climate variability has played a role, with droughts encouraging waves of immigration. In recent decades there have been spectacular waves of colonising species from inland Australia (Galah, Sulphurcrested Cockatoo, Little Corella and Crested Pigeon), the eastern seaboard (Rainbow Lorikeet) and the western plains (Long-billed Corella). Introduced European birds declined substantially during the 1997-2010 drought. Conservation of native vegetation has been the main factor contributing to the high diversity still represented in Melbourne's bird fauna. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A conference paper about the environment and ageing in Australia discussed at the International Federation on Ageing 10th Global Conference held in Melbourne, Victoria in 2010 is presented. It stresses the importance of the Yarra River watershed which has been exploited as a fresh water source and polluted by trades and residential outfalls. It talks about the weather and its impacts, the immediate challenges and ways of responding to climate change. It suggests engaging older people in finding solutions such as Victoria's Council for the Ageing (COTA).

An 8800 km pipeline is currently being constructed in western Victoria to replace 17,500 km of open channel system. This Wimmera Mallee Pipeline Project (WMPP) will provide reticulated water to 36 towns and about 6000 farms across an area of approximately 2 million hectares. With this pipeline will come vastly improved effi ciencies in the supply of water, with an estimated water saving of 103,000 ML being returned to the environment, existing consumptive use, new development and for recreation. The main source of supply to the WMPP will be from the headworks system located in and around the Grampians National Park, with the northern (Mallee) area supplied direct from the River Murray. The Grampians headworks system consists of 11 storages, each with their own unique hydrologic, environmental and socioeconomic attributes. The number of storages and their range of attributes enable a degree of fl exibility with regards to the future confi guration and operation of the headworks systems to meet the various demands of urban, domestic and stock, irrigation, recreation, new development, intensive industry, and water for the environment. This paper presents some of the modelling work undertaken, using the REALM modelling software package, to explore the effects that different system confi gurations, operating rules and climate change scenarios have on the ability of the headworks system to meet the requirements of basic water supply, environmental needs and community expectations. Results are presented in the form of a case study, outlining the changes in the total system water balance post-WMPP, changes in users' security of supply, and exceedance plots for total system environmental out flows and total system storage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Australia has an incredibly variable and unpredictable hydroclimate, and while irrigation is designed to reduce risk, significant uncertainty remains in both seasonal water availability (‘allocations’) and irrigation crop water requirements. This paper explores the nature and impacts of seasonal hydroclimatic uncertainty on irrigator decision making and temporary water markets in the Goulburn system in northern Victoria. Irrigation and water trading plans are modelled for the three seasons of the irrigation year (spring, summer and autumn) via discrete stochastic programming, and contrasted against a perfect information base case. In water-scarce environments, hydroclimatic uncertainty is found to be costly, in terms of both the efficiency of irrigation decisions and the allocation of water via the water market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change modelling has identified south-east Australia as a 'hot spot' for more frequent climatic extremes. Rural landholders may be vulnerable to the risks climate change presents. Australia's rural landholders are considered highly adaptable, with a history of responding to climatic uncertainty and variability. Yet it is possible that some of their adaptations will not be effective in reducing vulnerability, and may have downstream impacts. Rural landholder decision making is complex, and this is one of a limited number of papers examining rural landholder responses to climate change and the factors influencing their decisions. Data were gathered using semi-structured interviews and a mail survey of rural landholders in two districts. Established socio-psychological scales were employed to measure beliefs, values and attitudes that are expected to shape landholder behaviour. Most of the rural landholders surveyed were not climate change 'deniers' with 70% agreeing that the climate is changing and that human activity is a major influence. Climate change was nominated as an influence on six adaptive behaviours by 50% or more of survey respondents. However, there were no significant relationships between belief in climate change and adaptive actions. Personal values and worldviews were found to be the most frequent factors linked to adaptive behaviour. These findings illustrate the complex nature of rural landholder decision making: suggesting that many rural landholders do not need convincing of the existence of climate change; and that efforts to motivate rural landholders to respond to climate change risks should be based on sound knowledge of their values and worldviews., (Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Climate variability over the Tropical and North Pacific Ocean (TPO and NPO, respectively) modulates marginal sea variability. The South China Sea (SCS), the largest marginal sea in the western NPO, is an outstanding example of a region that responds quickly to climate change. However, there is considerable uncertainty regarding the response of the deep SCS to large‐scale climate variability. Multivariate empirical orthogonal function analysis revealed three prominent modes of interconnected temperature anomaly fluctuations within the TPO and NPO. These coherent modes highlight the interactive dynamics among climate variations and reveal their modulation mechanisms for previously less explored potential temperature variabilities in the deep SCS. On the atmospheric bridge, external forces modify the upper‐layer Luzon Strait Transport (LST) by adjusting the Ekman transport and Kuroshio intrusion. For the oceanic pathway, climate variations disturb the deep‐layer LST by adjusting the barotropic flows in the upper layer. Plain Language Summary: This study utilizes multivariate empirical orthogonal function analysis to examine long‐term hydrographic observations and identify coherent variations in surface temperature anomalies in the Tropical and North Pacific Ocean. The leading mode displays in‐phase combinations of the East Pacific El Niño and warm Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The second mode displays a Central Pacific El Niño and North Pacific Meridional Mode‐like mode. The third mode resembles a Central Pacific El Niño and Victoria Mode‐like mode. The objective is to comprehend the synergies between the climatic variabilities in the Tropical and North Pacific Ocean, as well as the processes by which the predominant climate variabilities regulate the undocumented potential temperature variabilities in the deep South China Sea. Extrinsic forcings in the Tropical and North Pacific Ocean regulate the interannual–decadal temperature variabilities by modulating the Luzon Strait Transport. On the atmospheric bridge, these extrinsic forcings affect the upper‐layer Luzon Strait Transport by altering the local Ekman transport and Kuroshio intrusion associated with the bifurcation of the North Equatorial Current. On the oceanic pathway, climate variabilities disturb the deep‐layer Luzon Strait Transport by changing the ocean bottom pressure between the two sides of the Luzon Strait. Key Points: Coherent climate variabilities in the Tropical and North Pacific Ocean are obtained through MVEOF analysisPotential temperature observations from the deep South China Sea indicate interannual–decadal variabilityClimate variabilities affect deep temperature variability through the changing atmospheric bridge and oceanic pathway [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Framework climate legislation has been introduced in many jurisdictions around the world, at the national and subnational scales, to govern climate change mitigation and adaptation activities by governments. The Climate Change Act 2017 (Vic) is an example which embodies many of the typical features of framework climate laws: emissions reduction targets, mitigation strategies and adaptation plans. Yet the Victorian legislation also includes explicit provision for climate mainstreaming: a general legal duty to take account of climate change, where relevant, in government decisions, policies, programs and processes, and a more specific duty to have regard to climate change considerations in prescribed decisions. These mainstreaming provisions reflect a legislative intent to promote an integrated, whole-ofgovernment approach to climate change. This recognises that a broad range of policy areas both contribute to climate change and are affected by climate change, and that effectively integrating climate change across government functions is critical to achieve mitigation and adaptation objectives. This article reports on an empirical study exploring the effect of the mainstreaming provisions on government practices in Victoria. Interviews with Victorian public servants from a wide range of policy and operational areas provide insights into the value, role and function of legislation in supporting climate mainstreaming, as well as lessons from practice in how to effectively operationalise legal mainstreaming duties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

From time to time, catastrophic bushfires cause substantial losses of life and property in southern Australia. Moreover, recent analyses of longitudinal fire weather behaviour point to a steady increase in the Forest Fire Danger Index. Although natural hazards such as bushfires can rarely be prevented, effective hazard-mitigation strategies can manage and lessen the impact on humans and the environment. This paper investigates subdivision design as one such mitigation technique. Roads and other forms of access are vital to successful bushfire response by fire brigades. The research examines the effectiveness of current policy to provide adequate access and suppression opportunities for firefighters in peri-urban areas, with particular reference to Victoria. Subdivision policies applicable to development in bushfire-prone areas throughout Australia and the United States are assessed and compared. Interviews with firefighters, planners, and researchers provided insight into the key components of the road network which facilitate firefighter access and identified major shortfalls of current policy and practice in Victoria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Building adaptive reuse plays a critical role in emissions reduction and supports global climate protection. Thus, the designing of future buildings with embedded adaptive reuse potential is a useful criterion for sustainability. This paper describes the development of a new rating tool known as adaptSTAR, which offers holistic and unified design criteria suitable for assessing the adaptive reuse potential of future buildings. The findings show that criteria can be identified and weighted according to physical, economic, functional, technological, social, legal and political categories to calculate an adaptive reuse star rating. In addition, this paper reports on the first stage of the research methodology used in the initial development of the rating tool and concludes with some preliminary observations from 12 selected successful case studies in New South Wales (NSW) and Melbourne, Australia. The use of adaptSTAR in designing future buildings will lead and help promote low carbon built environments. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

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This paper presents a reliability assessment of railway track buckling during extreme heatwave events. Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the probability of track buckling. The effects of important predictor parameters such as the effective buckling length and buckling modes of the rails, as well as the rail temperatures at the time of their installation and during the heatwave are taken into account in the simulation. The results show that the probability of the buckling of tracks during an extreme heatwave similar to the event that took place in Melbourne in January 2009 is about 2/100,000 on average, which is a good estimate of the number of the track segments that were actually observed to have buckled in the Melbourne railway network. This assessment demonstrates a science-based approach to reliability assessment for track buckling during heatwaves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Uncertainty around long-term droughts and water scarcity has been increasing as the impacts of El Nino cycles are felt globally. Understanding how the effects of these events are manifested on the ground in communities is particularly important if governments and associated agencies are to respond appropriately. Using a qualitative approach, this paper examines the impacts of drought on two rural towns in Victoria, Australia, and explores what lessons can be drawn from local experiences. The research suggests that previous responses to drought by governments have been largely ineffectual and as such, we question whether there is a need to reshape institutional understandings of what adapting to drought might mean. This research, therefore, seeks to further the discussion surrounding drought impacts and the myriad of challenges associated with it by drawing on locally situated knowledge to inform future decision-making in this evolving field of study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change and its impacts have ethical dimensions, for instance carbon footprint equity concerns. World issues, including the state of the ecosphere and biodiver­sity, regularly see political leaders, NGOs, business representatives, religious/spiritual orga­nizations, academics, and others engage in international aviation-dependent meetings to address critical challenges facing humanity and the planet. Yet, climate scientists and advocates call for an 80% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050 to cap the increase in global temperatures to 2ºC. Aviation emissions resulting from international meetings raise questions that are not silenced by GHG emissions offsetting. The era of climate change and 'peak oil' poses ethical challenges for holding international in-person religious and academic events, especially when the events propound an environmentalist concern and when aviation use is assumed. This paper raises ques­tions regarding the ecological impacts of large international events and focuses the 'inconvenient truths' associated with international aviation in the era of global warming. The Parliament of the World's Religions, the largest multifaith gathering in the world, serves as a case study. The paper emphasizes the view that faith-based/faith-inspired organizations have a special responsibility for leadership in policy and praxis on the moral imperatives of sustainability, sustainable development and climate justice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change and its impacts have ethical dimensions, for instance carbon footprint equity concerns. World issues, including the state of the ecosphere and biodiver­sity, regularly see political leaders, NGOs, business representatives, religious/spiritual orga­nizations, academics, and others engage in international aviation-dependent meetings to address critical challenges facing humanity and the planet. Yet, climate scientists and advocates call for an 80% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050 to cap the increase in global temperatures to 2ºC. Aviation emissions resulting from international meetings raise questions that are not silenced by GHG emissions offsetting. The era of climate change and 'peak oil' poses ethical challenges for holding international in-person religious and academic events, especially when the events propound an environmentalist concern and when aviation use is assumed. This paper raises ques­tions regarding the ecological impacts of large international events and focuses the 'inconvenient truths' associated with international aviation in the era of global warming. The Parliament of the World's Religions, the largest multifaith gathering in the world, serves as a case study. The paper emphasizes the view that faith-based/faith-inspired organizations have a special responsibility for leadership in policy and praxis on the moral imperatives of sustainability, sustainable development and climate justice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is an increasing concern that the current management practices for many coastal regions are unsustainable. Very few countries have planned to deal with the exacerbation of environmental decline in the face of sea level rise. It is therefore necessary to assess socioeconomic and environmental impacts of sea level rises to better understand the vulnerability of coastal zones, as part of devising adaptive and integrated management principles. This paper presents a systematic approach by which relevant stakeholders can be actively engaged in prioritising flood impact issues and deriving information for quantification of impacts for adaptation measures and demonstrates the approach through implementation in the Gippsland coastal region. As outcomes of the project, we have identified key issues of concern for this region for flood impacts and constructed synthetic response functions for quantification of impacts of floods on some of the key issues in the region. The analysis also showed that stakeholders consider that some of the issues are not likely to be significantly affected by floods and thus may not require adaptation measures. The analysis did not provide high agreement on some issues. Different approaches are required to assess the importance of these issues and to establish impact response functions for them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tourism in ski resorts depends on snow cover which is expected to decline with climate change. This paper explores hypotheses about demand side responses to climatic change by analyzing patterns of visitation in recent years with differing snow cover. Snow cover and visitation patterns to six resorts which differ in altitude and size in Victoria, Australia, were compared between a slightly warm and much drier year (2006, +0.6°C and -50% precipitation to longer-term averages) to a more typical year (2007) and to nine earlier years. Snowmaking partly offset declines in natural snow cover in 2006, although there were still fewer days with snow on the ground. The number of visitor days was much lower in 2006 than the previous nine years for the three lowest-altitude resorts (-69%), while it actually increased (+10%) in the highest altitude resort where there were fewer visitors (-17%), but they stayed longer. Snowmaking is already critical for ski resorts in low snow years. With warmer conditions, lower-altitude resorts may not receive enough income due to reduced visitation to offset snowmaking costs, while higher-altitude resorts may have a short-term gain, but become uneconomical in the longer term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 7 February 2009 bushfires in the peri-urban region to the north of metropolitan Melbourne heralded what many have called an entirely new epoch in terms of weather-related disasters in Australia. A total of 173 people and 2000 properties were destroyed and, as with the 1939 fires in Victoria, a Royal Commission was subsequently instituted to inquire into the causes and responses to the fire. The Royal Commission has heard much evidence about alleged failings of fire response, communication and administration. It also considered land use planning issues and the associated regulatory framework. Using the Shire of Murrindindi as a case study, this paper argues that the location of population growth, and associated regulatory failure, are contributory, yet under-researched, factors associated with life and property losses. The adoption of more robust planning tools which incorporate climate change considerations, we argue, is essential to anticipate and minimise the impacts of disastrous natural events such as bushfires. In the latter part of the paper, attention is drawn to a recent Victorian Civil and Administrative Tribunal decision which is groundbreaking in its use of the precautionary principle to prevent dwelling construction in an 'inappropriate' location as well as to some major inconsistencies between planning for flood and bushfire threats. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change predictions include forecasts of higher variability in rainfall and river flows leading to greater uncertainty about future availability of water across urban and agricultural sectors. Under conditions of water scarcity, it makes economic sense to facilitate the transfer of water from low- to high-value users. This paper provides insights into the merits of water options contracts as a vehicle for facilitating trade and represents an alternative to the politically contentious permanent sale of water by agriculturalists. In addition, we provide some indicative results from an analysis of the feasibility of options contracts in an inter-sectoral setting by considering their deployment to remove urban/industrial water restrictions. A case study of the urban community of Wangaratta and upstream agricultural interests has been selected. The objective is to identify the conditions under which option contracts might work and to highlight the important contract design features that need to be considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has been described as the issue of our times. The World Health Organization argues that it will result in both beneficial and harmful effects for human populations and that the harms are likely to outweigh the benefits. Climate scientists can sketch an outline of the probable changes by country, and even region within a country. The effect of climate change on communities is much harder to predict. However, it can be argued with some confidence that the effects will be unequally distributed across communities and that the ways in which communities respond will make a substantial difference to their wellbeing. This paper uses the predictions for climate change in Victoria, Australia, as the background to a discussion of primary health care principles and how they might translate into coping, adaptation and mitigation activities within the primary health care sector. The major primary health care agencies are linked to one another through Primary Care Partnership structures and processes, which provide a foundation for sector-wide responses to climate change. The concept of a storyline, a brief scenario capturing the logic of changes and potential responses, is used to link evidence of climate change effects on communities and individuals to potential responses by primary health care agencies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper regional (synoptic) and large-scale climate drivers of rainfall are investigated for Victoria, Australia. A non-linear classification methodology known as self-organizing maps (SOM) is used to identify 20 key regional synoptic patterns, which are shown to capture a range of significant synoptic features known to influence the climate of the region. Rainfall distributions are assigned to each of the 20 patterns for nine rainfall stations located across Victoria, resulting in a clear distinction between wet and dry synoptic types at each station. The influence of large-scale climate modes on the frequency and timing of the regional synoptic patterns is also investigated. This analysis revealed that phase changes in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and/or the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) are associated with a shift in the relative frequency of wet and dry synoptic types on an annual to interannual timescale. In addition, the relative frequency of synoptic types is shown to vary on a multi-decadal timescale, associated with changes in the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Importantly, these results highlight the potential to utilise the link between the regional synoptic patterns derived in this study and large-scale climate modes to improve rainfall forecasting for Victoria, both in the short- (i.e. seasonal) and long-term (i.e. decadal/multi-decadal scale). In addition, the regional and large-scale climate drivers identified in this study provide a benchmark by which the performance of Global Climate Models (GCMs) may be assessed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Well-preserved leaf fossils from the Middle Eocene Anglesea site in Victoria are assigned to a new species of Megahertzia (M. paleoamplexicaulis R.J.Carp. & Rozefelds), a genus of Proteaceae now represented by a single species, M. amplexicaulis A.S.George & B.Hyland, in the Wet Tropics rainforests of Queensland. Megahertzia -like cuticular remains also occur in the Eocene Mount Hotham assemblage of Victoria, and pollen closely conforming to Megahertzia (i.e. Proteacidites latrobensis W.K.Harris) occurs widely in Cenozoic sediments of Australia and in New Zealand. All these records add to other fossil evidence that many species of Australian rainforest Proteaceae are the last vestiges of formerly much more widespread lineages. The fossil leaves are near-identical in architecture and cuticular features to lobed leaves of M. amplexicaulis , including that they have small teeth, stomata in well-defined areoles, and fine cuticular striations. Moreover, where preserved, the leaf fossils show amplexicaul bases, a unique (apomorphic) trait of the extant species. The apparent absence at Anglesea of simple (unlobed) leaves in Megahertzia and two other taxa of fossil Proteaceae is discussed; this leaf type could have evolved convergently in response to forest canopy heat increase as Australia drifted towards the Equator. The World Heritage Queensland Wet Tropics support an amazing 15 endemic genera of the Gondwanan Proteaceae family, including Megahertzia from the Daintree rainforest. Megahertzia -like fossil leaves were first collected from the Anglesea coal mine (Victoria, 3000 km away!) over 30 years ago, but have never been described. New fossil studies show the sole living species of Megahertzia as the last vestige of a formerly much more widespread lineage, and underscore the imperative need for conserving Australia's unique rainforest biota. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The soil organic carbon (SOC) depth profile provides information for many applications, including monitoring climate change, carbon sequestration, reforestation, and land erosion. Models of the SOC profile support data interpolation, trend analysis, and carbon mapping, and can be used in larger pedometric models in support of carbon farming. Model errors may be due to statistical variability in discrete data and the limited sample size available for model calibration. Uncertainties in the model can arise from a process of iterative parameter adjustment and can be estimated by gradient-based methods or probabilistic methods. A comparison between Frequentist and Bayesian approaches to the construction of regression-based models revealed that the results were very similar when used for calibrating a model for the SOC profile. The model was applied to four representative regional sites in Victoria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Leach, C.; Kennedy, D.M.; Carvalho, R.C., and Ierodiaconou, D., 2020. Predicting compartment-scale climate change impacts related to Southern Ocean wave forcing: Port Fairy, Victoria, Australia. In: Malvárez, G. and Navas, F. (eds.), Global Coastal Issues of 2020. Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 95, pp. 1157-1161. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208. On the southern coast of Australia one of the principle impacts of climate change will be a change in wave magnitude and direction resulting from intensification of the Southern Ocean storm systems. In Victoria, Australia, this is likely to cause significant change in sediment dynamics and possible shoreline re-orientation. In this paper, Port Fairy (western coast of Victoria) is used as a case study to explore the sensitivity of this embayment to changing wave climate conditions. Bed level change rates and spatially variable sediment transport rates are investigated. The results indicate that a southerly shift in the wave climate could intensify sediment transport processes and erosional patterns in this area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Here we use observations and simulations from 40 global climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), under preindustrial, historical, and a high emission scenario (RCP8.5) to provide estimates of Victorian cool season (April–October) rainfall for the coming century. This includes a new method which exploits recent research that estimated the relative contribution of external forcing and natural variability to the observed multidecadal decline in cool season rainfall in Victoria from 1997. The new method is aimed at removing the influence of external forcing on Victoria's cool-season rainfall, effectively rendering a stationary time-series. The resulting historical record is then modified by scaling derived from the mean projected change evident in climate models out to 2100. The results suggest that the median value of the All-Victoria rainfall PDF will decrease monotonically over the remainder of the twenty-first century under RCP8.5. The likelihood that All-Victoria rainfall in any given year from 2025 onward will be below the observed 5th percentile of the observations (291 mm) increases monotonically, becoming three times larger by the end of the century. The new method is assessed using cross-validation and its ability to hindcast observed multidecadal rainfall change. The latter indicates that CMIP5 models poorly replicate recent interdecadal rainfall change. So, while we have more confidence in the new method because it accounts for the non-stationarity in the observed climate, limitations in the CMIP5 models results in us having low confidence in the reliability of the estimated future rainfall distributions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A high-resolution third-generation wave model based on unstructured grids, WAVEWATCH III (WW3), was used to study the projected future wave climate of Bass Strait and south-east Australia under two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). The wave model, forced with winds from the Australian ACCESS-CM2 Global Climate Model, shows good agreement with coastal long-term buoy observations and an independent WW3 hindcast dataset over the historical period 1985–2014. The projected mean significant wave height ( H s ) for SSP5-8.5 by the end of the twenty-first century (2071–2100) shows a robust increase for the majority of the domain, but a decrease in nearshore regions, mainly due to projected decreases in local wind speed. The increase in H s for SSP1-2.6 is relatively small. Seasonal variations show that H s (SSP5-8.5) is primarily influenced by Southern Ocean swell in spring and winter and local winds prevail in summer and autumn. Hs percentiles show a stronger increase in extreme wave climate for SSP5-8.5 than for SSP1-2.6. Extreme value H s for SSP1-2.6 shows a projected decrease in western regions of the domain and an increase in the east. Extreme value H s for SSP5-8.5 shows a decrease in the nearshore areas of Victoria. This study shows that projected wave climate changes in south-east Australia may have potential implications for Tasmanian and Victorian coastline stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Novel genetic accessions of Eucalyptus polybractea from a previously untested, hotter and drier part of the species' natural range were tested in a common garden trial at a semi-arid site in NSW, Australia. Eucalyptus polybractea is a mallee eucalypt cultivated for essential oils (1,8-cineole), bioenergy and carbon sequestration on dryland sites in southern Australia (sites receiving about 450 mm mean annual rainfall, MAR). A trial of six previously untested provenances from the relatively hot, dry part of the species' natural range in South Australia (SA) (250–450 mm MAR) was established alongside seven provenances from New South Wales (NSW) and Victoria within a commercial plantation in NSW. The trial was assessed at age 3.7 years for growth and oil characteristics. While survival was excellent, most of the SA sources were slower growing and of sub-standard oil concentration and quality relative to those from Victoria and NSW. However, a single SA provenance, with the highest oil concentration and 1,8-cineole percentage of all provenances tested, may have potential as a source of selected germplasm. Infusion of SA material into the breeding populations of E. polybractea, which are currently based on NSW and Victorian selections only, may provide more resilience in the face of hotter and drier temperatures expected under projected climate change scenarios, and/or allow the introduction of the species to hotter and drier climates in Australia or other parts of the world with semi-arid climates. However, high-intensity selection of infusions will be required to maintain the growth and oil characteristics in the existing breeding population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecosystems are influenced by multiple drivers, which shape ecosystem state and biodiversity. In some ecosystems, interactions and feedbacks among drivers can produce traps that confine an ecosystem to a particular state or condition and influence processes like succession. A range of traps has been recognized, with one of these – "a landscape trap" first proposed a decade ago for the tall, wet Mountain Ash and Alpine Ash forests of Victoria, south-eastern Australia. Under such a trap, young flammable forest is at high risk of reburning at high severity, thereby precluding stand maturation, and potentially leading to ecosystem collapse. These young forests are more common because recurrent wildfire and widespread clearcutting have transformed historical patterns of forest cover from widespread old-growth with small patches of regrowth embedded within it, to the reverse. Indeed, approximately 99% of the montane ash ecosystem is now relatively young forest. Based on new empirical insights, we argue that at least three key inter-related pre-conditions underpin the development of a landscape trap in montane ash forests. A landscape trap has been sprung in these forests because the pre-conditions for its development have been met. We show how inter-relationships among these pre-conditions, leading to frequent high-severity fire, interacts with life history attributes (e.g., time to viable seed production) to make montane ash forests (e.g., which have been highly disturbed through logging and frequent fire) vulnerable to ecosystem collapse. We conclude with the ecological and resource management implications of this landscape trap and discuss how the problems created might be rectified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Many species are adapted to a particular fire regime and major deviations from that regime may lead to localized extinction. Here, we quantify immaturity risks to an obligate‐seeder forest tree using an objectively designed climate model ensemble and a probabilistic fire regime simulator to predict future fire regimes. Location: Alpine ash (Eucalyptus delegatensis) distribution, Victoria, south‐eastern Australia. Methods: We used a fire regime model (FROST) with six climate projections from a climate model ensemble across 3.7 million hectares of native forest and non‐native vegetation to examine immaturity risks to obligate‐seeder forests dominated by alpine ash (Eucalyptus delegatensis), which has a primary juvenile period of approximately 20 years. Our models incorporated current and future projected climate including fuel feedbacks to simulate fire regimes over 100 years. We then used Random Forest modelling to evaluate which spatial characteristics of the landscape were associated with high immaturity risks to alpine ash forest patches. Results: Significant shifts to the fire regime were predicted under all six future climate projections. Increases in both wildfire extent (total area burnt, area burnt at high intensity) and frequency were predicted with an average increase of up to 110 hectares burnt annually by short‐interval fires (i.e., within the expected minimum time to reproductive maturity). The immaturity risk posed by short‐interval fires to alpine ash forest patches was well explained by Random Forest models and varied with both location and environmental variables. Main conclusions: Alpine ash forests are predicted to be burned at greater intensities and shorter intervals under future fire regimes. About 67% of the current alpine ash distribution was predicted to be at some level of immaturity risk over the 100‐year modelling period, with the greatest risks to those patches located on the periphery of the current distribution, closer to roads or surrounded by a drier landscape at lower elevations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The critically endangered wingless stonefly, Riekoperla darlingtoni (Illies, 1968), is endemic to the summit of Mt Donna Buang, Victoria, Australia. The known distribution of this species is within three short sections of alpine springs, making this species particularly vulnerable to climate change. We assessed changes in population abundance at the presumed type locality from 2005 to 2019. We found that the abundance of nymphs had decreased by more than 80% following the very dry winter of 2006 without a noticeable recovery. We also used environmental DNA (eDNA) to search for more localities within the species suitable habitat to re-evaluate its distribution. The eDNA survey uncovered two new localities 2.5 km west of the previously known populations, increasing the extent of occurrence to 0.37 km2 for a total of five localities. The species requires urgent listing under national environmental conservation legislation in Australia, an associated action plan and further surveys using eDNA to identify more locations. The eDNA approach allows reliable detection of this elusive species over a range of up to 200 m. Climate warming and drying resulting in the reduction in snowfall, as well as increasing human traffic and associated infrastructure at the mountain summit, are the main processes thought to be key threats to this unique and susceptible species. Implications for insect conservation: These surveys provide the data for listing of the species under the Australian federal Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act (EPBC) 1999. The newly developed eDNA methods allow for efficient and effective surveying of R. darlingtoni in order to obtain a more complete understanding of its distribution for future conservation planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Yield plays a central role in the processes, practices, management and operation of urban water supply systems. Improved accuracy of the yield estimate is important and can be obtained by improving knowledge of important variables. Yield is typically estimated via computational simulation using the entire sequence of available historic climate data. Sensitivity analysis provides a framework and many techniques that can identify important variables in a computational model. Using the Morris method, this paper investigates the importance of input variables used in the estimation of yield of urban water supply systems. The Barwon urban water supply system in Australia is used as the case study. Using a number of climate scenarios of various lengths, sensitivity analysis showed that the security criteria of the Barwon system was the most important to the yield estimate. The upper restriction rule curve also showed notable importance. Significantly the results showed that the use of a single climate sequence for estimating yield would produce misrepresentative results for another climate scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Weller S. The regional dimensions of the ‘transition to a low-carbon economy’: the case of Australia's Latrobe Valley, Regional Studies. Translating concern about climate change into practical, effective and politically feasible policy action is a key challenge for contemporary governments. In Australia, the government's failure to launch ‘the transition to a low-carbon economy’ is reshaping the political landscape. This article argues that progress has stalled because politicians emboldened by the moral challenge of climate action, but schooled in market-based policy solutions, have not acknowledged or made provision for the regional impacts of the economic transformation they propose. Weller S. 向低炭经济转移的区域尺度：以澳大利亚为例，区域研究。将对于气候变化的考量转化为实际有效且政治可行的政策行动是对于当前政府的主要挑战之一。澳大利亚政府部门向低炭经济转型过程中的失败正在重塑其政治景观。本文认为，这一进程受阻是缘于面对气候议程的道德挑战，政客们将解决方案寄托于以市场为基础的政策却未意识到、或为经济转型的区域影响作出规定。 区域发展 产业重构 降炭 澳大利亚 Weller S. Les aspects régionaux de la ‘transition à une économie à faibles émissions de carbone’: étude de cas de la Vallée de Latrobe en Australie, Regional Studies. Traduire l'inquiétude quant au changement climatique en actions à la fois pratiques, efficaces et réalisables du point de vue politique, constitue un défi primordial pour les gouvernements d'aujourd'hui. En Australie, l'incapacité du gouvernement à lancer ‘la transition en une économie à faibles émissions de carbone’ remanie le milieu politique. Cet article affirme que l'on freine le progrès parce que les hommes politiques, enhardis par le défi moral d'agir en faveur du climat, mais rompus aux solutions déterminées par le marché, n'ont ni fait attention, ni prévu les retombées régionales de la transformation économique proposée. Aménagement du territoire Restructuration industrielle Réduction des émissions de carbone Australie Weller S. Die regionalen Dimensionen des ‘Übergangs zu einer CO2-armen Wirtschaft’: der Fall des Latrobe Valley in Australien, Regional Studies. Die Sorgen wegen des Klimawandels in praktische, wirksame und politisch durchsetzbare politische Maßnahmen zu verwandeln gehört zu den wichtigsten Herausforderungen für die heutigen Regierungen. In Australien wird die politische Landschaft aufgrund der Fehlschläge der Regierung bei der Einführung des ‘Übergangs zu einer CO2-armen Wirtschaft’ neu geprägt. In diesem Beitrag wird argumentiert, dass der Fortschritt ins Stocken geraten ist, weil die Politiker – ermutigt durch die moralische Herausforderung von Maßnahmen gegen den Klimawandel, aber geschult in marktorientierten politischen Lösungen – die regionalen Auswirkungen der von ihnen vorgeschlagenen wirtschaftlichen Umgestaltung nicht zur Kenntnis genommen bzw. berücksichtigt haben. Regionalentwicklung Industrielle Umstrukturierung Entkarbonisierung Australien Weller S. Las dimensiones regionales de la ‘transición a una economía hipocarbónica’: el caso del Valle de Latrobe en Australia, Regional Studies. Traducir la preocupación sobre el cambio climático en medidas políticas que sean prácticas, eficaces y políticamente viables es un reto fundamental para gobiernos contemporáneos. En Australia, el fracaso del gobierno al tratar de introducir la ‘transición a una economía hipocarbónica’ está transformando el panorama político. En este artículo argumentamos que el progreso se ha estancado porque los políticos, alentados por el reto moral de las medidas climáticas, pero educados en soluciones políticas basadas en el mercado, no han sabido reconocer ni han tenido en cuenta las repercusiones regionales de la transformación económica que proponen. Desarrollo regional Reestructuración industrial Descarbonización Australia [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The climate change focus in Australia has shifted from mitigation to adaptation with an emphasis on place-specific case studies. The Barwon Estuary Complex (BEC) on the Bellarine Peninsula, central Victoria, was the focus of this place-specific study in which 37 local stakeholders were consulted through a series of semi-structured interviews on the impacts of climate change on their coastal community. Overall there was uniformity in stakeholder perceptions of the climate change impacts and vulnerabilities pertaining to the BEC. In contrast, discussion on adaptation drew a diversity of responses. While 53 per cent of stakeholders indicated a need to limit the use of hard structures, and rather plan around a changing estuarine environment, opinion amongst the community group was divided. Some believed ‘retreat is the only option’ whilst others felt ‘there won't be much leaving’. The present level of confusion around adaptation highlights the imperative of commencing discussions now to allow sufficient time to develop strategies which are both environmentally and socially responsible. This is important as ultimately it will be the community that will determine whether adaptation strategies are adopted or met with resistance. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Climate change is increasing the variability of rainfall, and thus the availability of water supplies in many areas of the world. These impacts are already being felt in the state of Victoria, Australia where a 12 year drought period was recently experienced. Restrictions to water use have been implemented, as one component of a broad policy approach to manage the drought. While anecdotal evidence suggests that the substitution of centralised water supplies is occurring, this has not been proven empirically. This paper reports results from a survey of households in Victoria regarding their use of alternative water sources. The study found that substitution is occurring. Garden watering is the purpose which has the highest rate of alternative water source use. In total 41.6% of respondents always, and 33.2% sometimes use an alternative water source for garden watering. The most commonly used alternative source of water for garden watering is water previously used in the laundry (30.7%). The alternative source of water used was found to vary depending on the purpose of the water use. High levels of satisfaction were found for all alternative water sources used. Several barriers were found to the use of alternative water sources, the main of which were: inflexibility of existing infrastructure, cost, policy, and housing status. The results have implications for water retailers, policy makers and governments in locations facing water shortage. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

An 8800 km pipeline has been constructed in western Victoria to replace 17,500 km of open channel system. The Wimmera Mallee Pipeline Project (WMPP) will provide reticulated water to 36 towns and about 6000 farms across an area of approximately 2 million hectares. With this pipeline will come vastly improved efficiencies in the supply of water, with water savings being returned to the environment, existing consumptive use and new development. One of the challenges for managers of water recovery projects is to determine the most effective form of entitlement for the beneficiaries of the water savings. In regulated systems, consumptive entitlements are generally supplied from water held in storage, where as the environment has a share of the run-of-river flow specified in the form of a minimum passing fl ow rule. However, in some cases, such as in the Wimmera-Mallee system, the environment may have the option of both regulated and unregulated entitlements. The objective of the present study was to demonstrate the effect the environment's entitlement configuration has on the volume of water supplied to the environment, and the overall effi ciency of the water supply system under the historic climatic sequence and climate change. The modelling work is undertaken using the REALM simulation package, with the results presented in case study form based on the Wimmera-Mallee system, outlining the changes in the total system water balance post-Wimmera Mallee Pipeline, changes in the environment's reliability of supply, and exceedance plots for environmental flows and headworks loss. The outcomes of this study demonstrate the need to consider the trade-offs between large entitlements of low reliability and small entitlements of high reliability as part of the system reconfiguration process, given the effect it has on total system effi ciency, particularly in an uncertain climate future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]