Search

An interview with a Republican mayor, James Brainard on city level climate action is presented. Topics discussed include views on personal or political reasons to participate in the issue of climate change; policies on global carbon emissions; and climate-change impacts on sea level in coastal areas and forest fires in other regions.

As temperatures and sea levels rise, among other issues, environmental change is becoming an increasingly important driver of both internal and external migration across the globe. The loss of livelihood that these changes engender, and will increasingly cause in the coming decades, is forcing larger and larger numbers of individuals and groups to seek opportunities in other areas. As this phenomenon becomes more prevalent, it is imperative that communities, governments, NGOs, and other interested parties put in place policies to mitigate and adapt. This paper looks at the intersection of environmental change and migration. More specifically, it discusses the changing climate and environment and then looks at how this will, and already is, affecting migration patterns around the world. It then will provide a number of guiding principles for policymakers, academics, and others to think about when dealing with this issue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In coming decades, sea level rise associated with climate change will make some communities uninhabitable. Managed retreat, or planned relocation, is a proactive response prior to catastrophic necessity. Managed retreat has disruptive health, sociocultural, and economic impacts on communities that relocate. Health impacts include mental health, social capital, food security, water supply, sanitation, infectious diseases, injury, and health care access. We searched peer-reviewed and gray literature for reports on small island or coastal communities at various stages of relocation primarily due to sea level rise. We reviewed these reports to identify public health impacts and barriers to relocation. We identified eight relevant small communities in the USA (Alaska, Louisiana, and Washington), Panama, Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, and Vanuatu. Affected populations range from 60 to 2700 persons and are predominantly indigenous people who rely on subsistence fishing and agriculture. Few reports directly addressed public health issues. While some relocations were successful, barriers to relocation in other communities include place attachment, potential loss of livelihoods, and lack of funding, suitable land, community consensus, and governance procedures. Further research is needed on the health impacts of managed retreat and how to facilitate population resilience. Studies could include surveillance of health indicators before and after communities relocate due to sea level rise, drought, or other environmental hazards. Lessons learned may inform relocation of both small and large communities affected by climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article presents a decadal transition from a decreasing trend to an increasing trend in the late 1990s for autumn rainfall in central China. The atmospheric and oceanic background underlying this regime shift is also addressed. Accompanying the above decadal transition, the moisture convergence and ascending motion averaged in central China both switch from a weakening trend to a strengthening trend. Meanwhile, after the late 1990s, the declining of the Asian sea level pressure (SLP) and the deepening of the Lake Balkhash trough may induce more cold air from high latitudes to break out southward. The strengthening of the low-level southerly in East Asia could transport more moisture northward from low latitudes. More cold air and more warm-moist airflow encountering in the targeted region contribute to the increasing trend of local rainfall. The situation before the late 1990s is generally reversed, which accounts for the decreasing trend of autumn rainfall. The movement of the East Asian jet (EAJ) from southward to northward also has a contribution via its influence on dynamic condition. Additionally, changes in the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the western Indian and Atlantic Oceans from a cooling trend to a warming trend in the late 1990s play significant roles through their modulations on moisture transport and cold-air activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Differentiating the impacts of climate change between 1.5°C and 2°C requires a regional and sector-specific perspective. Whereas for some regions and sectors the difference in climate variables might be indistinguishable from natural variability, other areas especially in the tropics and subtropics will experience significant shifts. In addition to region-specific changes in climatic conditions, vulnerability and exposure also differ substantially across the world. Even small differences in climate hazards can translate into sizeable impact differences for particularly vulnerable regions or sectors. Here, we review scientific evidence of regional differences in climate hazards at 1.5°C and 2°C and provide an assessment of selected hotspots of climate change, including small islands as well as rural, urban, and coastal areas in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, that are particularly affected by the additional 0.5°C global mean temperature increase. We interlink these with a review of the vulnerability and exposure literature related to these hotspots to provide an integrated perspective on the differences in climate impacts between 1.5°C and 2°C. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For now, the question about future sea level change in the Mediterranean remains a challenge. Previous climate modelling attempts to estimate future sea level change in the Mediterranean did not meet a consensus. The low resolution of CMIP-type models prevents an accurate representation of important small scales processes acting over the Mediterranean region. For this reason among others, the use of high resolution regional ocean modelling has been recommended in literature to address the question of ongoing and future Mediterranean sea level change in response to climate change or greenhouse gases emissions. Also, it has been shown that east Atlantic sea level variability is the dominant driver of the Mediterranean variability at interannual and interdecadal scales. However, up to now, long-term regional simulations of the Mediterranean Sea do not integrate the full sea level information from the Atlantic, which is a substantial shortcoming when analysing Mediterranean sea level response. In the present study we analyse different approaches followed by state-of-the-art regional climate models to simulate Mediterranean sea level variability. Additionally we present a new simulation which incorporates improved information of Atlantic sea level forcing at the lateral boundary. We evaluate the skills of the different simulations in the frame of long-term hindcast simulations spanning from 1980 to 2012 analysing sea level variability from seasonal to multidecadal scales. Results from the new simulation show a substantial improvement in the modelled Mediterranean sea level signal. This confirms that Mediterranean mean sea level is strongly influenced by the Atlantic conditions, and thus suggests that the quality of the information in the lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) is crucial for the good modelling of Mediterranean sea level. We also found that the regional differences inside the basin, that are induced by circulation changes, are model-dependent and thus not affected by the LBCs. Finally, we argue that a correct configuration of LBCs in the Atlantic should be used for future Mediterranean simulations, which cover hindcast period, but also for scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study models shoreline retreat due to sea level rise by using geographic data and applies the model to future projections of decreases in beach area for 806 beaches in Japan. The model uses a foreshore slope (angle) based on data from a digital elevation model, and influence of the present simplified method for estimation of the shoreline retreat is examined through comparisons with previous studies at typical locations. The proposed method gives a distance of shoreline retreat due to sea level rise similar to that predicted using the Bruun rule for minimal retreat less than 30 m, but the difference becomes substantial for more extensive decreases. The decrease in beach area is projected for different sea level rises based on four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The decrease in beach area becomes more severe for the RCP8.5 scenario, and the proposed method predicts that a third of current sandy beaches in Japan will disappear. The extent of the decrease depends not only on the sea-level-rise scenario but also on the SLR projection model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Designing decision analytical models requires making choices that can involve a range of trade-offs and interactions between epistemic and ethical considerations. Such choices include determining the complexity of a model and deciding what types of risk will be assessed. Here, we demonstrate how model design choices can involve trade-offs between the epistemic benefits of representational completeness and simplicity, which interact with ethical considerations about fairness and human life. We illustrate this point by focusing on modeling studies that assess flood risks in New Orleans, Louisiana. Addressing the ethical and epistemic implications of model design choices can help clarify the scope of factors necessary to inform ethically sound and economically efficient decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Different multidisciplinary data concerning the paleodynamics of sea-level variations in the Caspian and Black seas are controversial in some aspects. There are at least three paradoxes that are discussed in the paper. The Paradox No. 1 relates to the Early and Late Khvalynian transgressions that occurred in the CS during the second part of MIS 3 (∼35–25 ka BP) and the Late Glacial epoch (∼17–12 ka BP), respectively. It is unclear what the main source or sources of water were that caused them. Paradox No. 2 emerges from the comparison of climate events and transgressive-regressive cycles in the Caspian Sea and the Black Sea. It implies that large sea-level anomalies occurred in accordance with global climate changes (because they are influenced by climate variations). However, other (not so long-lived) sea-level fluctuations are poorly correlated with climate events. The question is why climatically-induced sea-level changes did not follow climatic variations. Paradox No. 3 concerns the contradiction between the massive water discharge from the Black Sea into the Sea of Marmara via the Bosphorus Strait and the Black Sea level fluctuations in the Latest Pleistocene-Holocene that could not exist simultaneously. It is shown that Paradox No. 2 has been solved, at least on conceptual level. Solutions to Paradoxes No. 1 and No. 3 are still lacking: further geological and geochronological evidence as well as climate simulation are required. Formulation of solutions for these paradoxes should make a major contribution not only to the problems of the Caspian and Black seas’ paleogeography, but also provide help in explaining the reasons for inadequate simulation of regional climate changes. This is important in the context of the development of models for future climate prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The analysis of seismic-acoustic profiles and drilling data from the Northern Caspian showed the climatic events are quite distinguishable in the Upper Pleistocene sedimentary sequence. The climatic events of the first half of Late Pleistocene (MIS 5) resulted in the onset of two warm-water transgressive basins – Late Khazarian and Hyrcanian ones. Though cooler than at the late Khazarian transgression, the climate during the Hyrcanian time was attributable to interglacial one. As the glacial stage MIS 4 approached its maximum under conditions of a dry and cold climate the Hyrcanian sea basin regressed. The Atelian regression of the Caspian Sea corresponded to MIS 4 stage and to the initial phases of the MIS 3 interstadial warming. The development of the global interstadial warming led to a considerable increase in the surface runoff from the catchment and resulted in the rising of the Atelian lake level and the onset of the first phase of the Khvalynian transgression. The sea level rising was interrupted at the time of maximum cooling and aridization at MIS 2 and resumed when the ice sheet was decaying. The conspicuous climatic events known as warm phases of Bølling and Allerød promoted the ice sheet melting along with thawing of permafrost, the latter having been widespread in the Volga drainage basin. All the above contributed to the Khvalynian transgression. The ‘chocolate’ clays were accumulated in the Volga estuary, as well as in depressions of the Pre-Khvalynian topography. Phases of a noticeable cooling known as the Oldest, Older and Younger Dryas marked by a decrease in the runoff volume from the Caspian drainage basin are correlated with regressive stages in the Khvalynian basin history. The Khvalynian came to its end at the time of the first sharp warming that resulted in the rise of the Caspian level and is generally taken as marking the Pleistocene/Holocene boundary. The Mangyshlakian regression is dated to the Holocene and was essentially a response of the Caspian Sea to the increase in the climate continentality during the Boreal period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Persistent pressures from water-related threats – sea-level rise, soil and water salinization, and flooding due to embankment overtopping and failure – have made the West Bengal Sundarbans a challenging place to live, and effects of global climate change will only worsen conditions. Four alternative policy directions are examined: business as usual; intensive rural development; short-term out-migration of residents; and embankment realignment and facilitation of voluntary, permanent out-migration. The last of these is the recommended approach. Study findings have informed ongoing deliberations to build consensus on future policy directions for reducing the region’s vulnerability to natural disasters. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Sea-level rise, as a result of global warming, may lead to more natural disasters in coastal regions where there are substantial aggregations of population and property. Thus, this paper focuses on the impact of sea-level rise on the recurrence periods of extreme water levels fitted using the Pearson type III (P-III) model. Current extreme water levels are calculated using observational data, including astronomical high tides and storm surges, while future extreme water levels are determined by superposing scenario data of sea-level rise onto current extreme water levels. On the basis of a case study using data from Shandong Province, China, results indicated that sea-level rise would significantly shorten the recurrence periods of extreme water levels, especially under higher representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. Results showed that by the middle of the century, 100-year current extreme water levels for all stations would translate into once in 15-30 years under RCP 2.6, and once in ten to 25 years under RCP 8.5. Most seriously, the currently low probability event of a 1000-year recurrence would become common, occurring nearly every 10 years by 2100, based on projections under RCP 8.5. Therefore, according to this study, corresponding risk to coastlines could well be increase in future, as the recurrence periods of extreme water levels would be shortened with climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal flood risk will likely increase in the future due to urban development, sea-level rise, and potential change of storm surge climatology, but the latter has seldom been considered in flood risk analysis. We propose an integrated dynamic risk analysis for flooding task (iDraft) framework to assess coastal flood risk at regional scales, considering integrated dynamic effects of storm climatology change, sea-level rise, and coastal development. The framework is composed of two components: a modeling scheme to collect and combine necessary physical information and a formal, Poisson-based theoretical scheme to derive various risk measures of interest. Time-varying risk metrics such as the return period of various damage levels and the mean and variance of annual damage are derived analytically. The mean of the present value of future losses (PVL) is also obtained analytically in three ways. Monte Carlo (MC) methods are then developed to estimate these risk metrics and also the probability distribution of PVL. The analytical and MC methods are theoretically and numerically consistent. A case study is performed for New York City (NYC). It is found that the impact of population growth and coastal development on future flood risk is relatively small for NYC, sea-level rise will significantly increase the damage risk, and storm climatology change can also increase the risk and uncertainty. The joint effect of all three dynamic factors is possibly a dramatic increase of the risk over the twenty-first century and a significant shift of the probability distribution of the PVL towards high values. In a companion paper (Part II), we extend the iDraft to perform probabilistic benefit-cost analysis for various flood mitigation strategies proposed for NYC to avert the potential impact of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Two lake records document Holocene changes in sea level, vegetation, and climate on the Okhotsk and Pacific sides of central Iturup Island, southern Kuril Islands. The sediment cores originated within tidal flats that subsequently developed into a marine strait which crosscut the island as sea levels rose during the early Holocene. Brackish lagoons and eventually freshwater lakes formed by ~7100 cal yr BP associated with warmer than present conditions. Past vegetation changes indicate a clear Holocene thermal maximum recorded on the Pacific coast but a less distinct optimum on the western shores (~7200-6100 cal yr BP). A gradual cooling toward modern levels occurred ~6100-3500 cal yr BP. Four prominent layers of coarse sediment found in mid- to late Holocene lake deposits may correspond to intervals of climate cooling/dune formation previously documented in coastal sections. Although chronological limitations question the synchronicity of these events across the south Russian Far East, it seems probable that they have a regional signature. However, the mechanisms responsible for Holocene climatic changes are likely the result of complex interactions of hemispheric-scale atmospheric patterns, marine characteristics, and regional feedbacks rather than simply fluctuations in sea levels as suggested in the current interpretative model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Strachan, K.L.; Hill, T.R.; Finch, J.M.; Barnett, R.L., and Frenzel, P., 2017. Distribution of salt-marsh foraminifera in two South African estuaries and the application as sea-level indicators. The global mean sea level is rising as a result of climate change and is likely to affect millions of people. It is essential to understand and quantify regional relative sea-level variability to be able to predict future changes. Proxy evidence is necessary for extending our understanding of past sea-level changes beyond the industrial era, and salt-marsh foraminifera have become an important tool for reconstructing late Holocene sea-level changes. In South Africa, little is known regarding the distribution of salt-marsh foraminifera and their use as sea-level indicators, thereby limiting their application in sea-level research. This study therefore describes the distribution of living and dead surface foraminifera from two study sites along the SE South African coastline. The full surface dataset has been compiled from 139 samples that are used to describe the contemporary distribution of salt-marsh foraminifera. Cluster analysis is used to define four biozones; high marsh, middle marsh, low marsh, and mudflats. In the high marsh, where environmental conditions reach the survival threshold, a greater abundance of agglutinated foraminifera occurs. In the low-marsh zone, where subaerial exposure is restricted and environmental conditions are usually stable, a greater diversity of calcareous species occurs. The tidal mudflats have the highest diversity of calcareous assemblages with some agglutinated taxa present. Distributions of living foraminiferal populations are similar to the population distributions of dead foraminifera at both sites in the low-marsh and mudflat zones. In the high-marsh zones, however, the living-to-dead ratio and distributions are different, which could be a result of different influences of environmental variables along with seasonal variations. This study provides insights into foraminiferal distributions along the SE coastline of South Africa, which will be useful for interpreting late Holocene sea-level changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article talks about the human-induced climate change, stating that by the end of the 21st century global temperatures will rise than they were in the 1990s. It is noted that rise in temperature will also result in the rise in sea levels and would threaten the lives of people living near coastal areas. Topics include nuclear contamination, mass mobilization, and transfer of carbon dioxide (CO2) into the atmosphere from inside the Earth.

Recent eustatic sea level rise (SLR) is one of the most striking manifestations of recent climate change as it directly impacts coastal activities and ecosystems. Although global SLR is well-known, local values differ due to vertical land motion, and changes in atmospheric pressure, ocean currents and temperatures. Although a reliable estimation of local SLR trends is needed to assess coastal zone vulnerabilities and plan adaptation strategies, instrumental records are usually short or sparse, especially in developing countries. Here we show that 210 Pb-dated sedimentary records from mangrove saltmarshes can provide useful decadal records of local SLR trends. We quantified sediment accretion rates in sediment cores from remote mangrove saltmarshes of the Yucatan Peninsula. Best SLR records were observed for cores collected near mean sea level (MSL). During most of the XX century the SLR rate ranged from 1-2 mm yr -1 , increased to a maximum of 4.5 ± 0.6 mm yr -1 and the acceleration was 0.13 mm yr -2 . Assuming either a constant SLR rate or acceleration, by the end of this century MSL level will be 39 cm or 91 cm above the present value. Both coastal infrastructures and ecosystems will be negatively affected by SLR and society will need to adapt relatively fast to the new conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An archaeological dimension expands the concept of biodiversity by generating long-term perspectives, combining multiple approaches and methodologies to enhance understanding of environmental changes. Aiming to investigate the patterns of biodiversity of marine mollusks over time, a comparison was made between three sets of archaeological sites (shellmounds) located in three geographic areas of the south-southeastern Brazilian coast. Sites dated between 1000–2000 and 4000–5000 yr BP were analyzed. A total of 37 bivalves and 26 gastropods were recorded. To describe the malacological community two indices of taxonomic diversity were used: average taxonomic distinctness and variation in taxonomic distinctness. The results showed a tendency of reduction in biodiversity patterns in the last 5000 years measured as average taxonomic distinctness. The observed reduction in biodiversity does not seem to be directly related to climate change over the period and there is a lack of data which could demonstrate any association between reduction in biodiversity and cultural causes such as preferences, technical level or food taboos of the prehistoric human populations. On the other hand, changes in sea level during this period are well documented and have been responsible for dramatic changes along the coast of this region. Therefore, it is likely that it could have affected local biodiversity and caused the observed pattern. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) as simulated by the global, coupled ocean-atmosphere-land Community Earth System Model (CESM) with a horizontal resolution of $${\sim }1^\circ$$ in the past, present and future (1850-2100). CESM correctly simulates present-day Antarctic sea ice extent, large-scale atmospheric circulation and near-surface climate, but fails to simulate the recent expansion of Antarctic sea ice. The present-day Antarctic ice sheet SMB equals $$2280 \pm 131$$ $$\mathrm {Gt\,year^{-1}}$$ , which concurs with existing independent estimates of AIS SMB. When forced by two CMIP5 climate change scenarios (high mitigation scenario RCP2.6 and high-emission scenario RCP8.5), CESM projects an increase of Antarctic ice sheet SMB of about 70 $$\mathrm {Gt\,year^{-1}}$$ per degree warming. This increase is driven by enhanced snowfall, which is partially counteracted by more surface melt and runoff along the ice sheet's edges. This intensifying hydrological cycle is predominantly driven by atmospheric warming, which increases (1) the moisture-carrying capacity of the atmosphere, (2) oceanic source region evaporation, and (3) summer AIS cloud liquid water content. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ice streams are narrow corridors of fast-flowing ice that constitute the arterial drainage network of ice sheets. Therefore, changes in ice stream flow are key to understanding paleoclimate, sea level changes, and rapid disintegration of ice sheets during deglaciation. The dynamics of ice flow are tightly coupled to the climate system through atmospheric temperature and snow recharge, which are known exhibit stochastic variability. Here we focus on the interplay between stochastic climate forcing and ice stream temporal dynamics. Our work demonstrates that realistic climate fluctuations are able to (i) induce the coexistence of dynamic behaviors that would be incompatible in a purely deterministic system and (ii) drive ice stream flow away from the regime expected in a steady climate. We conclude that environmental noise appears to be crucial to interpreting the past behavior of ice sheets, as well as to predicting their future evolution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The authors comment on the article "Closed-form analytical solutions for assessing the consequences of sea-level rise on groundwater resources in sloping coastal aquifers" published in a previous issue of the journal. They state concerns over the impact of sea-level rise on seawater intrusion, and mention limitations to the article associated with the choice of mathematical model and inland boundary condition. They mention the possibility of employing the Strack single potential approach.

Sea-level rise (SLR) is one of the most conspicuous examples of the environmental impact of recent climate change. Since SLR rates are not uniform around the planet, local and regional data are needed for proper adaptation plans. 210Pb-dated sediment cores were analyzed to determine the trends of sediment accretion rates (SARs) at three tropical saltmarshes in the Estero de Urias lagoon (Gulf of California, Mexico), in order to estimate the SLR trends during the past ~100 years, under the assumption that these ecosystems accrete at a similar rate to SLR. A chemometric approach, including multivariate statistical analysis (factor analysis) of geochemical data (including δ13C; δ15N; C/N ratios; and Br, Na, and Cl as proxies for marine transgression) was used to identify the marine transgression in the sediment records. Based on core geochemistry, only one of the three cores provided a long-term record attributable to marine transgression. SLR trends, estimated from SARs, showed increasing values, from a minimum of 0.73 ± 0.03 mm yr−1 at the beginning of the 20th century and up to 3.87 ± 0.12 mm yr−1 during the period 1990–2012. The estimated SLR trend between 1950 and 1970 was comparable to the tide gauge records in Mazatlan City for the same period. Results showed the caveats and strengths of this methodology to reconstruct decadal SLR trends from the sedimentary record, which can be used to estimate long-term SLR trends worldwide in regions where monitoring data are scarce or absent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Local residents, businesspeople, and policymakers engaged in climate change adaptation often think differently of the time available for action. Their understandings of time, and their practices that invoke time, form the complex and sometimes conflicting temporalities of adaptation to environmental change. They link the conditions of the past to those of the present and the future in a variety of ways, and their contemporary practices rest on such linking explicitly or implicitly. Yet the temporal connections between the present and distant future of places are undertheorized and poorly considered in the science and policy of adaptation to environmental change. In this article we address this theoretical and practical challenge by weaving together arguments from social and environmental geography with evidence from small coastal communities in southeastern Australia. We show that the past conditions residents’ imagined futures and that these local, imagined futures are incongruent with scientific, popular, and policy accounts of the future. Thus we argue that the temporalities of adaptation include incommensurate and unacknowledged ways of knowing and that these affect adaptation practices. We propose that strategies devised by governments for adapting to environmental change need to make visible—and calibrate policies with—the diverse temporalities of adaptation. On this basis, the times between the present and the long-term future can be better navigated as a series of short and negotiated policy steps. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Cities are increasingly recognised as places in which climate change risks coalesce and from which climate change adaptation efforts are most likely to be mobilised. In an effort to reduce damages from storm surges and sea-level rise, the City of Cape Town municipal government set out to establish a coastal set-back line. This paper describes the process and highlights the potential for unanticipated conflict and resistance when notions of ‘best practice’ fail to consider local institutional interests and pre-existing legislation. This insight is important as coastal municipalities in South Africa look to implement set-back lines in compliance with the Integrated Coastal Management Act (Act 24 of 2008). McKenna et al. [McKenna, J., Cooper, A., & O'Hagan, A.M., Managing by principle: A critical analysis of the european principles of integrated coastal zone management (ICZM).Marine Policy, 32, 941–955. doi:10.1016/j.marpol.2008.02.005] elucidate the potential for conflicts and contradictions when applying the principles of Integrated Coastal Zone Management in Europe. Developing and a applying a set-back line for Cape Town's coastline was anticipated to be difficult given that the city remains socio-economically unequal and spatially segregated and that the coastline provides multiple different communities with amenities, resources and opportunities at the same time. What was not anticipated was the encountered resistance from within public sector directorates operating under the same policies. The paper suggests that differences in mentalities, technologies and resources (following Wood, J., and Shearing, C., (2007)Imagining security.Devon: Willan Publishing) make for subjective policy interpretations and applications by local officials. Recognising and managing these differences is critical if notions of ‘best practice’ prescribed at higher governance levels are to prove useful to climate change adaptation measures at the local scale. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Silva, R.; Martínez, M.L.; Hesp, P.; Catalan, P.; Osorio, A. F.; Martell, R.; Fossati, M.; Miot da Silva, G.; Mariño-Tapia, I.; Pereira, P.; Cienfuegos, R.; Klein, A., and Govaere, G., 2014. Present and future challenges of coastal erosion in Latin America. The coastal zones of Latin America have many landforms and environments, including sedimentary cliffs, deeply incised estuaries, headlands, barrier coasts and low lying, muddy coastal plains. These forms will respond differently to the expected changes in climate and associated sea level rise, which may produce coastal erosion in the future. Considering the coasts of Latin America overall, erosion is not yet a serious threat, although it is widespread and it is severe in some parts. Major erosion problems are frequently associated with human intervention in sediment supply, with poor planning or with the morphodynamic nature of the coast. Permanent erosional processes, locally or regionally, are caused by tectonic subsidence, deforestation and the fragmentation of coastal ecosystems, land use changes and sediment deficits because of infrastructure built along the coast. In this article we analyse coastal erosion in Latin America and the challenges it presents to the region. We first highlight the relevance of Latin America in terms of its biodiversity; then we describe the population at risk, demographic trends and economic growth throughout the low lying coastal zones. We also examine the vulnerability of the region by analyzing the resilience of key coastal ecosystems after exposure to the most frequent hazards that affect coastal zones in Latin America, namely tropical cyclones, sea level rise, ocean acidification, earthquakes and tsunamis. Finally, we discuss seven case studies of coastal erosion across Latin America. We close the study by pinpointing the main areas of concern in Latin America and explore possible strategies to overcome erosion and thus sustain economic growth, minimize population risk and maintain biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A new ensemble of simulations from the Earth System configuration of the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model, version 2 (HadGEM2-ES), is used to evaluate the response to historical and projected future greenhouse gas forcings that follow Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). In addition to the projected changes during the twenty-first century, extended simulations to the year 2300 allow an investigation into inertia in the climate system post-2100 that may occur even if atmospheric CO2 concentrations have stabilized. Projections of temperature, precipitation, sea level, permafrost, heat waves, and compatible carbon emissions are analyzed. The low emissions scenario RCP2.6 is the only scenario considered here that is approximately consistent with a 2°C global warming limit, though there are regions where local changes in temperature are projected to considerably exceed 2°C, particularly over northern high-latitude areas. An aggressive mitigation approach, represented here by RCP2.6, could contribute to avoiding the larger-magnitude future climate changes projected under higher emissions scenarios. Despite these benefits, changes should still be expected under an aggressive mitigation pathway and may require adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the relationship between land use and climate change in America, focusing on the environmental conditions in the nation and a 2009 report from the U.S. Global Change Research Program which addresses flooding in the Northeast portion of the nation, as well as droughts and fires in the Southwest region of the U.S. The judgment of the nation's Supreme Court in the case Massachusetts v. EPA is examined, along with Greenhouse Gases, U.S. common law, and rising sea levels.

Managers and conservationists often need to prioritize which impacts from climate change to deal with from a long list of threats. However, data which allows comparison of the relative impact from climatic threats for decision-making is often unavailable. This is the case for the management of sea turtles in the face of climate change. The terrestrial life stages of sea turtles can be negatively impacted by various climatic processes, such as sea level rise, altered cyclonic activity, and increased sand temperatures. However, no study has systematically investigated the relative impact of each of these climatic processes, making it challenging for managers to prioritize their decisions and resources. To address this we offer a systematic method for eliciting expert knowledge to estimate the relative impact of climatic processes on sea turtles’ terrestrial reproductive phase. For this we used as an example the world’s largest population of green sea turtles and asked 22 scientists and managers to answer a paper based survey with a series of pair-wise comparison matrices that compared the anticipated impacts from each climatic process. Both scientists and managers agreed that increased sand temperature will likely cause the most threat to the reproductive output of the nGBR green turtle population followed by sea level rise, then altered cyclonic activity. The methodology used proved useful to determine the relative impact of the selected climatic processes on sea turtles’ reproductive output and provided valuable information for decision-making. Thus, the methodological approach can potentially be applied to other species and ecosystems of management concern. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Changing climates are affecting biodiversity and natural systems, causing extinctions, range shifts, and phenological shifts. Efforts to forecast the spatial distribution and magnitude of these effects, however, have focused largely on direct effects of changing climates on species' distributional potential; recent work has considered secondary effects of warming climates via rising sea levels. Here, we present a first integration of the two dimensions of climate change effects on biodiversity, examining joint effects of marine intrusion and climate change on the distributional potential of seventy-six species of Mexican birds. The two phenomena are not related to one another—that is, a species seriously affected by one is not necessarily seriously affected by the other; however, the areas affected within species' distributions by the two phenomena tend to be complementary, compounding the negative effects. These results have implications for planning biodiversity conservation globally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With polar temperatures ∼3–5 °C warmer than today, the last interglacial stage (∼125 kyr ago) serves as a partial analogue for 1–2 °C global warming scenarios. Geological records from several sites indicate that local sea levels during the last interglacial were higher than today, but because local sea levels differ from global sea level, accurately reconstructing past global sea level requires an integrated analysis of globally distributed data sets. Here we present an extensive compilation of local sea level indicators and a statistical approach for estimating global sea level, local sea levels, ice sheet volumes and their associated uncertainties. We find a 95% probability that global sea level peaked at least 6.6 m higher than today during the last interglacial; it is likely (67% probability) to have exceeded 8.0 m but is unlikely (33% probability) to have exceeded 9.4 m. When global sea level was close to its current level (≥-10 m), the millennial average rate of global sea level rise is very likely to have exceeded 5.6 m kyr-1 but is unlikely to have exceeded 9.2 m kyr-1. Our analysis extends previous last interglacial sea level studies by integrating literature observations within a probabilistic framework that accounts for the physics of sea level change. The results highlight the long-term vulnerability of ice sheets to even relatively low levels of sustained global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article, the author discusses aspects regarding the reasons for concern on climate change adaptation. It states that the reasons for concern were updated in the 2009 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) which discussed the risks of large-scale discontinuities to ecosystems. He notes that the freshwater availability in coastal areas will suffer from sea level rise. It adds that the measures should be well-addressed in the environmental policies.

Climatologies and annual anomaly patterns (2000–04) of melt season duration and dates of melt onset/freeze-up on Eurasian Arctic ice masses were derived from Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) backscatter data. Severnaya Zemlya, Russia, has later melt onset, earlier freeze-up, and shorter melt seasons than Svalbard, Norway/Novaya Zemlya, Russia. In all three archipelagos 2001 was the longest melt season and 2000 was the shortest. Anomalously long (short) melt seasons on Svalbard were associated with negative (positive) sea ice concentration anomalies along the north coast in June and August. Annual mean melt duration was strongly correlated with the mean (June + August) NCEP–NCAR reanalysis 850-hPa air temperature, allowing reconstruction of melt durations for the period of 1948–2005. The 2000–04 pentad had the second or third longest mean melt duration of all pentads in the 1950–2004 epoch, while the 1950–54 pentad probably had the longest. Integration of these results with previous results from Greenland and the Canadian Arctic identifies 2002 as the longest melt season in the 2000–04 period across the Arctic as a whole, and 2001 as the shortest. Correlation of melt duration anomalies for 19 discrete regions identifies seven spatially coherent areas of the Arctic with common patterns of variability in annual melt duration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the increasing prominence of reports citing the potential environmental risks associated with rising sea levels. Driven by greenhouse gas emissions, global warming and the melting of icecaps, sea-level rise has attracted the interests of governmental agencies, nongovernmental organizations, and academicians. A multiagency study involving the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (USCCSP) discussing the encroachment of sea level onto the nation's mid-Atlantic coastline is presented. The implications of this process for creatures such as horseshoe crabs is discussed, and Delaware state biologist Stewart Michaels is quoted.

This article represents a first attempt to pull together relevant materials with the aim of providing a broad-brush view of how climate change may affect Greater Pearl River Delta (GPRD) region (Hong Kong, Macau and the Pearl River Delta). Among the various consequences of climate change, rising sea levels are a matter of great concern for the GPRD region, which is made vulnerable both by its physical geography (the southern part of the delta lies between - 0.3m to 0.4m relative to mean sea level (MSL)) and its urban development. More in-depth research and modeling remain to be done so that the authorities, business and civil society can better understand climate impacts on the region, but this article shows that climate change could have a big impact on the regional economy, which represents nearly 10% of China's GNP. The paper concludes with a discussion of the measures that government and businesses will need to consider in order to adapt to these future conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A review of the article "Ocean impact on decadal Atlantic climate variability revealed by sea-level observations" by Gerard D. McCarthy, Joël J.-M. Hirschi, David A. Smeed, and others which was published on page 508 of the same issue is presented.

The article discusses the implications to the U.S. of the rise in global sea level as a result of climate change. Topics discussed include the risk for flooding in the shorelines of the U.S., possible causes of rising sea level including the expansion of water at it heats and the melting of glaciers and ice sheets, and the government's policy challenges with regards to the sea level rise.