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The present study aims to assess the recent changes and trends in the extreme climate indices in the Kashmir basin using the observational records from 1980 to 2016. The extreme climate indices were computed using the ClimPACT2 software and a total of 39 indices were selected for the analysis having particular utility to various sectors like agriculture, water resources, energy consumption, and human health. Besides adopting the station scale analysis, regional averages were computed for each index. In terms of the mean climatology, an increase has been observed in the annual mean temperature with a magnitude of 0.024 °C/year. Further, differential warming patterns have been observed in the mean maximum and minimum temperatures with mean maximum temperature revealing higher increases than mean minimum temperature. On the other hand, the annual precipitation shows a decrease over most of the region, and the decreases are more pronouncing in the higher altitudes. The trend analysis of the extreme indices reveals that in consonance with the rising temperature there has been an increase in the warm temperatures and decrease in the cold temperatures across the Kashmir basin. Furthermore, our analysis suggests a decrease in the extreme precipitation events. The drought indices viz., Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), and Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) manifest decreasing trends with the tendency towards drier regimes implying the need for better water resource management in the region under changing climate., (© 2021. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.)

The present study intends to assess the climatic controls on the streamflow and its impacts on the changing form of hydrological extremes in the Jhelum basin. The study entails robust statistical analysis of the observed hydroclimatic data (1980–2016) using the standard procedures of trend and abrupt change point detection, flood frequency analysis (FFA), and streamflow drought index (SDI). The coupled impact of rising temperatures (0.024 °C/year) and diminishing precipitation (− 5.71 mm/year) is yielding substantial decreases in the streamflow of the Jhelum basin. The other manifestations of changing climatic regimes are the increasing trends in the spring season (March-May) streamflow and the concurrence of abrupt change points in the streamflow data with climatic variables. The climate change signals are well evident over the hydrological extremes, reflected in an enhanced occurrence of droughts through the latter half of the examined period. Moreover, the flood frequency estimates show that the magnitude of the peak discharges about different return periods has increased significantly during 1986–2016 compared to 1956–1985 estimates. The magnitude of 100-year recurrence interval flood has increased by 10.54–79.58% during 1986–2016. The current study calls for the inclusive restructuring of water management practices to offset the impacts of changing hydrological extremes in the basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The frequency and severity of climatic extremes is expected to escalate in the future primarily because of the increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. This study aims to assess the impact of climate change on the extreme temperature and precipitation scenarios using climate indices in the Kashmir Himalaya. The analysis has been carried out for the twenty-first century under different representative concentration pathways (RCPs) through the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) and ClimPACT2. The simulation reveals that the climate in the region will get progressively warmer in the future by increments of 0.36–1.48 °C and 0.65–1.07 °C in mean maximum and minimum temperatures respectively, during 2080s (2071–2100) relative to 1980–2010 under RCP8.5. The annual precipitation is likely to decrease by a maximum of 2.09–6.61% (2080s) under RCP8.5. The seasonal distribution of precipitation is expected to alter significantly with winter, spring, and summer seasons marking reductions of 9%, 5.7%, and 1.7%, respectively during 2080s under RCP8.5. The results of extreme climate evaluation show significant increasing trends for warm temperature-based indices and decreasing trends for cold temperature-based indices. Precipitation indices on the other hand show weaker and spatially incoherent trends with a general tendency towards dry regimes. The projected scenarios of extreme climate indices may result in large-scale adverse impacts on the environment and ecological resource base of the Kashmir Himalaya. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims at assessing the tectonic and climatic responses to landscape changes transpired in the Durung Drung basin in the Zanskar Himalaya. We used relevant geomorphic indices interpreted from ASTER DEM satellite data and supplemented by the field observations to decipher active tectonics and resultant changes in the landscape. A N-S trending fault in the north of the basin was studied with the help of basin geometry which includes relative parameter, length area relation, form factor, shape factor ratio, elongation ratio, circulatory ratio, compactness coefficient and morphotectonic indices (e.g., drainage basin asymmetry, mountain front sinuosity, hypsometric integral, topographic symmetric factor) to comprehend the geomorphic signatures of the active tectonics. The geomorphic indices indicate upliftment and tilting of the basin. The data on mountain front index and hypsometric integral reveal the uplift and high relief. We propose that the western side of the basin is tectonically more active than eastern side, suggesting active upliftment. The convex nature of hypsometric curve and strongly elongated circulatory ratio reflect competing role of deformation by tectonics. The results of mountain front index and hypsometric integral reveal high relief and uplift. Overall deglaciation of 12.91% was observed in the basin. Analysis of the meteorological data for the last century (1901–2017) indicate that increase in minimum and maximum temperature coupled with increase in liquid precipitation are probably the main drivers of glacier depletion. We conclude that the drainage system of this basin is structurally controlled and overall landscape change is significantly influenced by the ongoing perturbations in the climate system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]