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Although many studies predict extensive future biodiversity loss and redistribution in the terrestrial realm, future changes in marine biodiversity remain relatively unexplored. In this work, we model global shifts in one of the most important marine functional groups-ecosystem-structuring macrophytes-and predict substantial end-of-century change. By modelling the future distribution of 207 brown macroalgae and seagrass species at high temporal and spatial resolution under different climate-change projections, we estimate that by 2100, local macrophyte diversity will decline by 3-4% on average, with 17 to 22% of localities losing at least 10% of their macrophyte species. The current range of macrophytes will be eroded by 5-6%, and highly suitable macrophyte habitat will be substantially reduced globally (78-96%). Global macrophyte habitat will shift among marine regions, with a high potential for expansion in polar regions., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Determining the proximity of ecosystems to tipping points is a critical yet complex task, heightened by the growing severity of climate change and local anthropogenic stressors on ecosystem integrity. Spatial Early Warning Signals (EWS) have been recognized for their potential in preemptively signaling regime shifts to degraded states, but their performance in natural systems remains uncertain. In this study, we investigated the performance of 'recovery length' - the spatial extent of recovery from a perturbation - and spatial EWS as early warnings of regime shifts in Posidonia oceanica meadows. Our experimental approach involved progressively thinning the P. oceanica canopy, from 0 to 100%, at the edge of a dead-matte area - a structure formed by dead P. oceanica rhizomes and colonized by algal turfs - to promote the propagation of algal turfs. We calculated recovery length as the distance from the dead-matte edge to the point where algal turfs colonized the canopy-thinned region. Our results showed a linear increase in recovery length with canopy thinning, successfully anticipated the degradation of P. oceanica. While spatial skewness decline with increased canopy degradation, other spatial EWS, such as Moran correlation at lag-1, low-frequency spatial spectra, and spatial variance, were ineffective in signaling this degradation. These findings underscore the potential of recovery length as a reliable early warning indicator of regime shifts in marine coastal ecosystems., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authours declare that they have no conflict that could influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024. Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

Research on regime shifts has focused primarily on how changes in the intensity and duration of press disturbances precipitate natural systems into undesirable, alternative states. By contrast, the role of recurrent pulse perturbations, such as extreme climatic events, has been largely neglected, hindering our understanding of how historical processes regulate the onset of a regime shift. We performed field manipulations to evaluate whether combinations of extreme events of temperature and sediment deposition that differed in their degree of temporal clustering generated alternative states in rocky intertidal epilithic microphytobenthos (biofilms) on rocky shores. The likelihood of biofilms to shift from a vegetated to a bare state depended on the degree of temporal clustering of events, with biofilm biomass showing both states under a regime of non-clustered (60 d apart) perturbations while collapsing in the clustered (15 d apart) scenario. Our results indicate that time since the last perturbation can be an important predictor of collapse in systems exhibiting alternative states and that consideration of historical effects in studies of regime shifts may largely improve our understanding of ecosystem dynamics under climate change., (© 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.)

Habitat-forming species sustain biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in harsh environments through the amelioration of physical stress. Nonetheless, their role in shaping patterns of species distribution under future climate scenarios is generally overlooked. Focusing on coastal systems, we assess how habitat-forming species can influence the ability of stress-sensitive species to exhibit plastic responses, adapt to novel environmental conditions, or track suitable climates. Here, we argue that habitat-former populations could be managed as a nature-based solution against climate-driven loss of biodiversity. Drawing from different ecological and biological disciplines, we identify a series of actions to sustain the resilience of marine habitat-forming species to climate change, as well as their effectiveness and reliability in rescuing stress-sensitive species from increasingly adverse environmental conditions., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Although the importance of time after disturbance is well established in the ecological literature, studies examining how differences in growth rate affect species recovery and persistence in relation to the interval between recurrent perturbations are rare. We examined the response of two ephemeral primary producers inhabiting high‐shore rock pools, epilithic microphytobenthos (EMPB), and green filamentous algae, to disturbance regimes varying for the time interval between consecutive events. Informed from an empirically parametrized growth model's outcomes, we tested the hypothesis that EMPB would be able to recover from more frequent disturbance compared with filamentous algae in a field experiment involving three physical disturbance patterns differing for the clustering degree: high, moderate, and low (20, 40, and 80 days between disturbances). We predicted that: high clustering would prevent the recovery of both taxa; moderate clustering would prevent the recovery of the slower growing taxon only (filamentous algae); both taxa would recover under low clustering. Results showed that EMPB persisted independently of the clustering degree, whereas filamentous algae did not withstand any disturbance regime. Dramatically different effects of disturbance on organisms with subtle differences in their growth rate indicate that even stronger responses may be expected from taxa with more markedly contrasting life histories. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sustained observations of marine biodiversity and ecosystems focused on specific conservation and management problems are needed around the world to effectively mitigate or manage changes resulting from anthropogenic pressures. These observations, while complex and expensive, are required by the international scientific, governance and policy communities to provide baselines against which the effects of human pressures and climate change may be measured and reported, and resources allocated to implement solutions. To identify biological and ecological essential ocean variables (EOVs) for implementation within a global ocean observing system that is relevant for science, informs society, and technologically feasible, we used a driver-pressure-state-impact-response (DPSIR) model. We (1) examined relevant international agreements to identify societal drivers and pressures on marine resources and ecosystems, (2) evaluated the temporal and spatial scales of variables measured by 100+ observing programs, and (3) analysed the impact and scalability of these variables and how they contribute to address societal and scientific issues. EOVs were related to the status of ecosystem components (phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass and diversity, and abundance and distribution of fish, marine turtles, birds and mammals), and to the extent and health of ecosystems (cover and composition of hard coral, seagrass, mangrove and macroalgal canopy). Benthic invertebrate abundance and distribution and microbe diversity and biomass were identified as emerging EOVs to be developed based on emerging requirements and new technologies. The temporal scale at which any shifts in biological systems will be detected will vary across the EOVs, the properties being monitored and the length of the existing time-series. Global implementation to deliver useful products will require collaboration of the scientific and policy sectors and a significant commitment to improve human and infrastructure capacity across the globe, including the development of new, more automated observing technologies, and encouraging the application of international standards and best practices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding how historical processes modulate the response of ecosystems to perturbations is becoming increasingly important. In contrast to the growing interest in projecting biodiversity and ecosystem functioning under future climate scenarios, how legacy effects originating from historical conditions drive change in ecosystems remains largely unexplored. Using experiments in combination with stochastic antecedent modelling, we evaluated how extreme warming, sediment deposition and grazing events modulated the ecological memory of rocky intertidal epilithic microphytobenthos ( EMPB). We found memory effects in the non-clustered scenario of disturbance (60 days apart), where EMPB biomass fluctuated in time, but not under clustered disturbances (15 days apart), where EMPB biomass was consistently low. A massive grazing event impacted on EMPB biomass in a second run of the experiment, also muting ecological memory. Our results provide empirical support to the theoretical expectation that stochastic fluctuations promote ecological memory, but also show that contingencies may lead to memory loss. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal ecosystems are highly complex and driven by multiple environmental factors. To date we lack scientific evidence for the relative contribution of natural and anthropogenic drivers for the majority of marine habitats in order to adequately assess the role of different stressors across the European seas. Such relationship can be investigated by analysing the correlation between environmental variables and biotic patterns in multivariate space and taking into account non-linearities. Within the framework of the EMBOS (European Marine Biodiversity Observatory System) programme, hard bottom intertidal communities were sampled in a standardized way across European seas. Links between key natural and anthropogenic drivers and hard bottom communities were analysed using Boosted Regression Trees modelling. The study identified strong interregional variability and showed that patterns of hard bottom macroalgal and invertebrate communities were primarily a function of tidal regime, nutrient loading and water temperature (anomalies). The strength and shape of functional form relationships varied widely however among types of organisms (understorey algae composing mostly filamentous species, canopy-forming algae or sessile invertebrates) and aggregated community variables (cover or richness). Tidal regime significantly modulated the effect of nutrient load on the cover and richness of understorey algae and sessile invertebrates. In contrast, hydroclimate was more important for canopy algae and temperature anomalies and hydroclimate separately or interactively contributed to the observed patterns. The analyses also suggested that climate-induced shifts in weather patterns may result in the loss of algal richness and thereby in the loss of functional diversity in European hard bottom intertidal areas. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The mechanisms regulating switches in species interactions along gradients of stress are yet to be fully elucidated. In particular, the role of temporal variability in environmental severity or consumer pressure has been not explored either empirically or theoretically. Here, through a spatially explicit model (i.e. a two-dimensional lattice), we show that variations in the temporal variance of environmental stress can be as important as those in the mean intensity in regulating the spatial distribution and coexistence range of species differing in their relative competitive ability and tolerance to stress, as well as the direction and magnitude of their interactions. In addition, our simulations suggest that enhanced temporal fluctuations in environmental stressors can enhance absolute levels of stress perceived by interacting species. This study shows that tests including both the mean and temporal variance of environmental stress will be key to forecast changes in species interactions under different scenarios of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Understanding how biodiversity varies at different spatial scales and the drivers behind these patterns is a crucial issue in ecology. This is evident for the deep sea, the largest biome of the biosphere, where there is little information available on the spatial and temporal variability of biodiversity. Here, we investigated the variability and potential drivers of species richness, turnover and functional biodiversity of deep-sea nematodes at a depth of 3000 m across different spatial scales and in two periods of contrasting pelagic productivity. Location The Mediterranean Sea. Methods We used for the first time a hierarchical sampling strategy that includes different spatial scales, from tens of metres (small scale) to hundreds of kilometres (macroscale). Results We show that the variability in biodiversity is greatest at the macroscale, although the rate of variability is about two- to three-fold lower than observed for nematode abundance. Also, turnover diversity is highest at the macroscale (and uncoupled from species richness), and significantly decreases to the meso- and local scales. Functional diversity is positively related to species richness and its variability is associated with the change in richness of predators. The drivers of spatial variability of biodiversity are different at different spatial scales. Our data identify the pivotal role of food quantity in the control of variability in biodiversity attributes at the macroscale, while the quality and bioavailability of food sources have a key role in driving beta diversity and biodiversity attributes at small spatial scales. Also, the largest variations in biodiversity attributes at both macroscales and mesoscales are related to periods of high food input from the euphotic zone. Main conclusions We conclude that changes in food availability, which can also be expected as a consequence of climate change, have a significant impact in setting biodiversity attributes at different spatial scales in the deep sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the Anthropocene, marine ecosystems are rapidly shifting to new ecological states. Achieving effective conservation of marine biodiversity has become a fast‐moving target because of both global climate change and continuous shifts in marine policies. How prepared are we to deal with this crisis? We examined EU Member States Programs of Measures designed for the implementation of EU marine environmental policies, as well as recent European Marine Spatial Plans, and discovered that climate change is rarely considered operationally. Further, our analysis revealed that monitoring programs in marine protected areas are often insufficient to clearly distinguish between impacts of local and global stressors. Finally, we suggest that while the novel global Blue Growth approach may jeopardize previous marine conservation efforts, it can also provide new conservation opportunities. Adaptive management is the way forward (e.g., preserving ecosystem functions in climate change hotspots, and identifying and targeting climate refugia areas for protection) using Marine Spatial Planning as a framework for action, especially given the push for Blue Growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]