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Global climate zones are experiencing widespread shifts with ongoing rise in atmospheric CO 2 , influencing vegetation growth and shifting its distributions to challenge ecosystem structure and function, posing threats on ecological and societal safety. However, how rising atmospheric CO 2 affects the pace of global climate zone shifts is highly uncertain. More attentions are urgently required to understand the underlying mechanisms and quantifications of regional climate vulnerability in response to rising CO 2 . In this study, we employ nine Earth system models from CMIP6 to investigate global climate zone shifts with rising CO 2 , unravel the effects of vegetation physiological response (PHY), and categorize climate vulnerable regions depending on the extent of climate zone shifts. We find that climate zone shifts over half of the global land area, 16.8% of which is contributed by PHY at 4 × CO 2 . Intriguingly, besides warming, PHY-induced precipitation changes and their interactions with warming dominate about two-fifths of PHY-forced shifts, providing potential direction for model improvement in future predictions of climate zone shifts. Aided with PHY effects, 4 × CO 2 imposes substantial climate zone shifts over about one-fifth of the global land area, suggesting substantial changes in local climate and ecosystem structure and functions. Hence, those regions would experience strong climate vulnerability, and face high risk of climate extremes, water scarcity and food production. Our results quantitatively identify the vulnerable regions and unravel the underlying drivers, providing scientific insights to prioritize conservation and restoration efforts to ensure ecological and social safety globally., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2024. Published by Elsevier B.V.)

Climate change is anticipated to cause species to shift their ranges upward and poleward, yet space for tracking suitable habitat conditions may be limited for range-restricted species at the highest elevations and latitudes of the globe. Consequently, range-restricted species inhabiting Arctic freshwater ecosystems, where global warming is most pronounced, face the challenge of coping with changing abiotic and biotic conditions or risk extinction. Here, we use an extensive fish community and environmental dataset for 1762 lakes sampled across Scandinavia (mid-1990s) to evaluate the climate vulnerability of Arctic char (Salvelinus alpinus), the world's most cold-adapted and northernly distributed freshwater fish. Machine learning models show that abiotic and biotic factors strongly predict the occurrence of Arctic char across the region with an overall accuracy of 89 percent. Arctic char is less likely to occur in lakes with warm summer temperatures, high dissolved organic carbon levels (i.e., browning), and presence of northern pike (Esox lucius). Importantly, climate warming impacts are moderated by habitat (i.e., lake area) and amplified by the presence of competitors and/or predators (i.e., northern pike). Climate warming projections under the RCP8.5 emission scenario indicate that 81% of extant populations are at high risk of extirpation by 2080. Highly vulnerable populations occur across their range, particularly near the southern range limit and at lower elevations, with potential refugia found in some mountainous and coastal regions. Our findings highlight that range shifts may give way to range contractions for this cold-water specialist, indicating the need for pro-active conservation and mitigation efforts to avoid the loss of Arctic freshwater biodiversity., (© 2024 The Author(s). Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This article has been contributed to by U.S. Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.)

This study examines the relationship between climate change vulnerability and geopolitical risk using data on 42 countries from 1995 to 2021. Utilising two distinct indices, the climate vulnerability index (CVI) and the country-specific geopolitical risk (CGPR) indices, we find that countries with high vulnerability to climate change are more likely to experience geopolitical conflicts. Further analysis reveals that country-level overall economic, social, and governance (ESG) readiness significantly mitigates this detrimental effect. This moderation is mainly attributed to the social and governance readiness measures. Additional tests indicate that the mitigating role of ESG is more pronounced for countries with high institutional governance. These results remain resilient through a set of endogeneity tests using matched samples of countries generated through propensity score matching (PSM) estimation. Our findings suggest that addressing climate vulnerability is crucial to promoting global peace and geopolitical stability., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing interest There is no conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Seagrass is an important natural attribute of 28 World Heritage (WH) properties. These WH seagrass habitats provide a wide range of services to adjacent ecosystems and human communities, and are one of the largest natural carbon sinks on the planet. Climate change is considered the greatest and fastest-growing threat to natural WH properties and evidence of climate-related impacts on seagrass habitats has been growing. The main objective of this study was to assess the vulnerability of WH seagrass habitats to location-specific key climate stressors. Quantitative surveys of seagrass experts and site managers were used to assess exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity of WH seagrass habitats to climate stressors, following the Climate Vulnerability Index approach. Over half of WH seagrass habitats have high vulnerability to climate change, mainly from the long-term increase in sea-surface temperature and short-term marine heatwaves. Potential impacts from climate change and certainty scores associated with them were higher than reported by a similar survey-based study from 10 years prior, indicating a shift in stakeholder perspectives during the past decade. Additionally, seagrass experts' opinions on the cumulative impacts of climate and direct-anthropogenic stressors revealed that high temperature in combination with high suspended sediments, eutrophication and hypoxia is likely to provoke a synergistic cumulative (negative) impact (p < .05). A key component contributing to the high vulnerability assessments was the low adaptive capacity; however, discrepancies between adaptive capacity scores and qualitative responses suggest that managers of WH seagrass habitats might not be adequately equipped to respond to climate change impacts. This thematic assessment provides valuable information to help prioritize conservation actions, monitoring activities and research in WH seagrass habitats. It also demonstrates the utility of a systematic framework to evaluate the vulnerability of thematic groups of protected areas that share a specific attribute., (© 2023 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Climate vulnerability can make urban space unhealthy and accentuate existing health (in)justice and (economic) segregation. Drawing on the vulnerability-readiness nexus and measuring health justice (i.e., health poverty, health distribution, and health access) and economic segregation (through indices), we strive to investigate the plausible pathways of the two constructs at the heat risks. Our work, focusing on metropolitan cities in South Korea, addresses the role of heat vulnerability and readiness nexus regarding health justice and economic segregation through correlational analysis and a time-trend comparative approach between 2011 and 2015 (as five year-long effects). Our results show that potential positive links exist between health poverty as a component of health justice and economic segregation. Moreover, climate readiness, as opposed to vulnerability, plays a crucial role in reducing economic segregation in the context of health justice and heat risks., (Copyright © 2023 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Protected areas (PAs) are crucial in conserving biodiversity under climate change. In boreal regions, trends of biologically relevant climate variables (i.e., bioclimate) in PAs have remained unquantified. We investigated the changes and variability of 11 key bioclimatic variables across Finland during the period 1961-2020 based on gridded climatology. Our results suggest significant changes in annual mean and growing season temperatures over the entire study area, whereas, e.g., annual precipitation sum and April-September water balance have increased especially in the central and northern parts of Finland. We found substantial variation in bioclimatic changes over the 631 studied PAs; in the northern boreal zone (NB) the number of snow-covered days has decreased on average by 5.9 days between 1961-1990 and 1991-2020, while in the southern boreal zone (SB) the corresponding decrease has been 16.1 days. The number of frost days in spring with absent snow cover has decreased in the NB (on average -0.9 days) while increasing in the SB (0.5 days), reflecting the changing exposure of biota to frost. The observed increases in accumulation of heat in the SB and more frequent rain-on-snow events in the NB can affect drought tolerance and winter survival of species, respectively. Principal component analysis suggested that the main dimensions of bioclimate change in PAs vary across vegetation zones; for example, in the SB the changes are related to annual and growing season temperatures, whereas in the middle boreal zone the changes are linked to altered moisture and snow conditions. Our results highlight the substantial spatial variation in bioclimatic trends and climate vulnerability across the PAs and vegetation zones. These findings provide a basis for the understanding of the multifaceted changes the boreal PA network is facing and help to develop and direct conservation and management., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Forecasting long-term consequences of global warming requires knowledge on thermal mortality and how heat stress interacts with other environmental stressors on different timescales. Here, we describe a flexible analytical framework to forecast mortality risks by combining laboratory measurements on tolerance and field temperature records. Our framework incorporates physiological acclimation effects, temporal scale differences and the ecological reality of fluctuations in temperature, and other factors such as oxygen. As a proof of concept, we investigated the heat tolerance of amphipods Dikerogammarus villosus and Echinogammarus trichiatus in the river Waal, the Netherlands. These organisms were acclimated to different temperatures and oxygen levels. By integrating experimental data with high-resolution field data, we derived the daily heat mortality probabilities for each species under different oxygen levels, considering current temperatures as well as 1 and 2°C warming scenarios. By expressing heat stress as a mortality probability rather than a upper critical temperature, these can be used to calculate cumulative annual mortality, allowing the scaling up from individuals to populations. Our findings indicate a substantial increase in annual mortality over the coming decades, driven by projected increases in summer temperatures. Thermal acclimation and adequate oxygenation improved heat tolerance and their effects were magnified on longer timescales. Consequently, acclimation effects appear to be more effective than previously recognized and crucial for persistence under current temperatures. However, even in the best-case scenario, mortality of D. villosus is expected to approach 100% by 2100, while E. trichiatus appears to be less vulnerable with mortality increasing to 60%. Similarly, mortality risks vary spatially: In southern, warmer rivers, riverine animals will need to shift from the main channel toward the cooler head waters to avoid thermal mortality. Overall, this framework generates high-resolution forecasts on how rising temperatures, in combination with other environmental stressors such as hypoxia, impact ecological communities., (© 2023 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background: Malaria is still a disease of massive burden in Africa, also influenced by climate change. The fluctuations and trends of the temperature and precipitation are well-known determinant factors influencing the disease's vectors and incidence rates. This study provides a concise account of malaria trends. It describes the association between average temperature and malaria incidence rates (IR) in nine sub-Saharan African countries: Nigeria, Ethiopia, South Africa, Kenya, Uganda, Ghana, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe. The incidence of malaria can vary both in areas where the disease is already present, and in regions where it is present in low numbers or absent. The increased vulnerability to the disease under increasing average temperatures and humidity is due to the new optimal level for vector breeding in areas where vector populations and transmission are low, and populations are sensitive due to low acquired immunity., Methods: A second source trend analysis was carried out of malaria cases and incidence rates (the number of new malaria cases per 1000 population at risk per year) with data from the World Health Organization (WHO) and average annual mean temperature from 2000 to 2018 from the World Bank's Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP). Additionally, descriptive epidemiological methods were used to describe the development and trends in the selected countries. Furthermore, MS Excel was chosen for data analysis and visualization., Results: Findings obtained from this article align with the recent literature, highlighting a declining trend (20-80%) of malaria IR (incidence rate) from 2000 to 2018. However, malaria IR varies considerably, with high values in Uganda, Mozambique, Nigeria and Zambia, moderate values in Ghana, Zimbabwe, and Kenya, and low values in South Africa and Ethiopia in 2018. Evidence suggests varying IRs after average temperature fluctuations in several countries (e.g., Zimbabwe, Ethiopia). Also, an inverse temperature-IR relationship occurs, the sharp decrease of IR during 2012-2014 and 2000-2003, respectively, occurred with increasing average temperatures in Ghana and Nigeria. The decreasing trends and fluctuations, partly accompanying the temperature, should result from the intervention programmes and rainfall variability. The vulnerability and changing climate could arrest the recent trends of falling IR., Conclusion: Thus, malaria is still a crucial public health issue in sub-Saharan Africa, although a robust decreasing IR occurred in most studied countries., (© 2023. BioMed Central Ltd., part of Springer Nature.)

Background: Global climate change poses a significant challenge in contemporary society, particularly affecting vulnerable populations like small farmers residing in arid and semiarid regions. This study aims to investigate the perception of health risks and adaptive responses in the semiarid region of Northeast Brazil (NEB). Four questions were formulated: (1) How do socioeconomic factors influence the perception of health risks during extreme climate events? (2) How do socioeconomic factors impact the adoption of adaptive responses to mitigate health risks during extreme weather events? (3) How does the perceived risk level affect the utilization of adaptive responses? (4) What is the influence of extreme climate events on the perceived risks and the adoption of adaptive responses?, Method: The research was conducted in the rural community of Carão, situated in the Agreste region of the State of Pernambuco, NEB. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 49 volunteers aged 18 and above. The interviews aimed to gather socioeconomic information, including sex, age, income, access to healthcare services, family size, and education level. Additionally, the interviews explored the perceived risks and responses employed during different extreme climate events such as droughts or heavy rainfall. The perceived risks and adaptive responses data were quantified to address the research questions. Generalized linear models were employed to analyze the data for the first three questions, while the nonparametric Mann-Whitney test was used for the fourth question., Results: The study found no significant differences in the level of perceived risk and adaptive responses between the two climate extremes. However, the quantity of adaptive responses was found to be directly influenced by the perceived risks, regardless of the type of extreme climate event., Conclusion: The study concludes that risk perception is influenced by various complex factors, including socioeconomic variables, and plays a critical role in the adoption of adaptive responses during extreme climate events. The findings suggest that specific socioeconomic variables have a more pronounced influence on how individuals perceive and adapt to risks. Furthermore, the results indicate a cause-and-effect relationship between perceived risks and the generation of adaptive responses. These findings contribute to a better understanding of the factors shaping risk perception and provide valuable insights for future studies in regions prone to extreme climate events., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

The transition to renewable energy can disproportionately impact the effectiveness of climate change adaptation, due to regional heterogeneity. Many countries attempt to promote renewable energy to reduce the impact of climate change, but the impacts of national energy policy in the climate vulnerability framework remain little understood. Here, we exploit variations in renewable energy uses to test the effectiveness of climate adaptation policy across the dimensions of climate impact and vulnerability. Using the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process and panel data regression, we analyze the spatiotemporal correlation between renewable energy transition and climate vulnerability across the world. We find that while renewable energy increases proportionally with climate exposure and sensitivity, many countries exhibit discrepancies between the variation in renewable energy transition and climate vulnerability. The promotion of renewable energy funnels into nations with a higher level of adaptive capacity while bypassing more vulnerable countries. The results signify that existing renewable energy policies can exacerbate climate inequality and undermine the benefits of the transition to renewable energy by neglecting the spatial heterogeneity in climate vulnerability. Our findings provide empirical evidence for the ways in which renewable energy policy can generate spatial inequalities in climate adaptation., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2022. Published by Elsevier B.V.)

The health impacts of climate are widely recognised, and extensive modelling is available on predicted changes to climate globally. The impact of these changes may affect populations differently depending on a range of factors, including geography, socioeconomics and culture. This study reviewed current evidence on the health risks of climate change for Australian Aboriginal populations and linked Aboriginal demographic data to historical and projected climate data to describe the distribution of climate-related exposures in Aboriginal compared to non-Aboriginal populations in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. The study showed Aboriginal populations were disproportionately exposed to a range of climate extremes in heat, rainfall and drought, and this disproportionate exposure was predicted to increase with climate change over the coming decades. Aboriginal people currently experience higher rates of climate-sensitive health conditions and socioeconomic disadvantages, which will impact their capacity to adapt to climate change. Climate change may also adversely affect cultural practices. These factors will likely impact the health and well-being of Aboriginal people in NSW and inhibit measures to close the gap in health between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal populations. Climate change, health and equity need to be key considerations in all policies at all levels of government. Effective Aboriginal community engagement is urgently needed to develop and implement climate adaptation responses to improve health and social service preparedness and secure environmental health infrastructure such as drinking water supplies and suitably managed social housing. Further Aboriginal-led research is required to identify the cultural impacts of climate change on health, including adaptive responses based on Aboriginal knowledges.

Food security is a global concern affecting even highly developed countries. Ongoing globalisation of food systems, characterised by trading interdependencies, means that agricultural production can be disrupted by climate change, affecting food availability. This study investigated Sweden's food security by identifying major food import categories and associated trade partners (using the World Integrated Trade System database) and vulnerability to frictions in trade deriving from climate change. Vulnerability was assessed through three indicators: exposure based on diversity of sources, dominance and direct trade from supplying countries; sensitivity, assessed using the Climate Risk Index, and adaptive capacity, assessed using the Fragile State Index. The results revealed that Sweden's grain imports may be most vulnerable, and animal products least vulnerable, to climate change. Management strategies based on this preliminary assessment can be developed by integrating climate vulnerability deriving from food trading into the 'Gravity' model, to improve prediction of trade flows., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

As climate change unfolds, changes in population dynamics and species distribution ranges are expected to fundamentally reshuffle communities worldwide. Yet, a comprehensive understanding of the mechanisms and extent of community reorganization remains elusive. This is particularly true in riverine systems, which are simultaneously exposed to changing temperature and streamflow, and where land-use change continues to be a major driver of biodiversity loss. Here, we use the most comprehensive compilation of fish abundance time series to date to provide a global synthesis of climate- and LU-induced effects on riverine biota with respect to changes in species thermal and streamflow affinities. We demonstrate that fish communities are increasingly dominated by thermophilic (warm-water) and limnophilic (slow-water) species. Despite being consistent with trends in water temperature and streamflow observed over recent decades, these community changes appear largely decoupled from each other and show wide spatial variation. We further reveal a synergy among climate- and land use-related drivers, such that community thermophilization is heightened in more human-modified systems. Importantly, communities in which species experience thermal and flow regimes that approach or exceed their tolerance thresholds (high community sensitivity), as well as species-poor communities (low community resilience), also display faster rates of compositional change. This research illustrates that quantifying vulnerability of riverine systems to climate change requires a broadening from a narrower thermal focus to more integrative approaches that account for the spatially varying and multifaceted sensitivity of riverine organisms to the interactive effects of water temperature, hydrology, and other anthropogenic changes., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interest.

Approximately 25% of mammals are currently threatened with extinction, a risk that is amplified under climate change. Species persistence under climate change is determined by the combined effects of climatic factors on multiple demographic rates (survival, development and reproduction), and hence, population dynamics. Thus, to quantify which species and regions on Earth are most vulnerable to climate-driven extinction, a global understanding of how different demographic rates respond to climate is urgently needed. Here, we perform a systematic review of literature on demographic responses to climate, focusing on terrestrial mammals, for which extensive demographic data are available. To assess the full spectrum of responses, we synthesize information from studies that quantitatively link climate to multiple demographic rates. We find only 106 such studies, corresponding to 87 mammal species. These 87 species constitute <1% of all terrestrial mammals. Our synthesis reveals a strong mismatch between the locations of demographic studies and the regions and taxa currently recognized as most vulnerable to climate change. Surprisingly, for most mammals and regions sensitive to climate change, holistic demographic responses to climate remain unknown. At the same time, we reveal that filling this knowledge gap is critical as the effects of climate change will operate via complex demographic mechanisms: a vast majority of mammal populations display projected increases in some demographic rates but declines in others, often depending on the specific environmental context, complicating simple projections of population fates. Assessments of population viability under climate change are in critical need to gather data that account for multiple demographic responses, and coordinated actions to assess demography holistically should be prioritized for mammals and other taxa., (© 2021 British Ecological Society.)

Streamflow is a main driver of fish population dynamics and is projected to decrease in much of the northern hemisphere, especially in the Mediterranean region, due to climate change. However, predictions of future climate effects on cold-water freshwater fish populations have typically focused only on the ecological consequences of increasing temperatures, overlooking the concurrent and interacting effects of climate-driven changes in streamflow regimes. Here, we present simulations that contrasted the consequences of changes in thermal regime alone versus the combined effects of changes in thermal regime and streamflow for resident trout populations in distinct river types with different sensitivities to climatic change (low-altitude main river vs. high-altitude headwaters). We additionally assessed the buffering effect of increased food production that may be linked to warming. We used an eco-genetic individual-based model that integrates the behavioural and physiological effects of extrinsic environmental drivers -temperature and flow- with intrinsic dynamics -density-dependence, phenotypic plasticity and evolutionary responses - across the entire trout life cycle, with Mediterranean brown trout Salmo trutta as the model species. Our simulations indicated that: (1) Hydrological change is a critical dimension of climate change for the persistence of trout populations, in that neither river type supported viable populations under strong rates of flow change, even under scenarios of increased food production. (2) Climate-change-related environmental change most affects the largest, oldest trout via increased metabolic costs and decreased energy inputs. In both river types, populations persisted under extreme warming alone but became dominated by younger, smaller fish. (3) Density-dependent, plastic and evolutionary changes in phenology and life-history traits provide trout populations with important resilience to warming, but strong concurrent shifts in streamflow could exceed the buffering conferred by such intrinsic dynamics., (Copyright © 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

The surge in global efforts to understand the causes and consequences of drought on forest ecosystems has tended to focus on specific impacts such as mortality. We propose an ecoclimatic framework that takes a broader view of the ecological relevance of water deficits, linking elements of exposure and resilience to cumulative impacts on a range of ecosystem processes. This ecoclimatic framework is underpinned by two hypotheses: (i) exposure to water deficit can be represented probabilistically and used to estimate exposure thresholds across different vegetation types or ecosystems; and (ii) the cumulative impact of a series of water deficit events is defined by attributes governing the resistance and recovery of the affected processes. We present case studies comprising Pinus edulis and Eucalyptus globulus, tree species with contrasting ecological strategies, which demonstrate how links between exposure and resilience can be examined within our proposed framework. These examples reveal how climatic thresholds can be defined along a continuum of vegetation functional responses to water deficit regimes. The strength of this framework lies in identifying climatic thresholds on vegetation function in the absence of more complete mechanistic understanding, thereby guiding the formulation, application and benchmarking of more detailed modelling., (© 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

A common way of quantifying and communicating climate vulnerability is to calculate composite indices from indicators, visualizing these as maps. Inherent methodological uncertainties in vulnerability assessments, however, require greater attention. This study examines Swedish agricultural vulnerability to climate change, the aim being to review various indicator approaches for assessing agricultural vulnerability to climate change and to evaluate differences in climate vulnerability depending on the weighting and summarizing methods. The reviewed methods are evaluated by being tested at the municipal level. Three weighting and summarizing methods, representative of climate vulnerability indices in general, are analysed. The results indicate that 34 of 36 method combinations differ significantly from each other. We argue that representing agricultural vulnerability in a single composite index might be insufficient to guide climate adaptation. We emphasize the need for further research into how to measure and visualize agricultural vulnerability and into how to communicate uncertainties in both data and methods., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Conservation strategies are often established without consideration of the impact of climate change. However, this impact is expected to threaten species and ecosystem persistence and to have dramatic effects towards the end of the 21st century. Landscape suitability for species under climate change is determined by several interacting factors including dispersal and human land use. Designing effective conservation strategies at regional scales to improve landscape suitability requires measuring the vulnerabilities of specific regions to climate change and determining their conservation capacities. Although methods for defining vulnerability categories are available, methods for doing this in a systematic, cost-effective way have not been identified. Here, we use an ecosystem model to define the potential resilience of the Finnish forest landscape by relating its current conservation capacity to its vulnerability to climate change. In applying this framework, we take into account the responses to climate change of a broad range of red-listed species with different niche requirements. This framework allowed us to identify four categories in which representation in the landscape varies among three IPCC emission scenarios (B1, low; A1B, intermediate; A2, high emissions): (i) susceptible (B1 = 24.7%, A1B = 26.4%, A2 = 26.2%), the most intact forest landscapes vulnerable to climate change, requiring management for heterogeneity and resilience; (ii) resilient (B1 = 2.2%, A1B = 0.5%, A2 = 0.6%), intact areas with low vulnerability that represent potential climate refugia and require conservation capacity maintenance; (iii) resistant (B1 = 6.7%, A1B = 0.8%, A2 = 1.1%), landscapes with low current conservation capacity and low vulnerability that are suitable for restoration projects; (iv) sensitive (B1 = 66.4%, A1B = 72.3%, A2 = 72.0%), low conservation capacity landscapes that are vulnerable and for which alternative conservation measures are required depending on the intensity of climate change. Our results indicate that the Finnish landscape is likely to be dominated by a very high proportion of sensitive and susceptible forest patches, thereby increasing uncertainty for landscape managers in the choice of conservation strategies., (© 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

This ethnographic study examines the disaster subculture of impoverished urban poor communities regarding extreme weather disasters, through the case of jjokbang‐chon, one of the most marginalized communities in Seoul, South Korea. The findings shed light on how jjokbang‐chon residents make meaning of disasters, where a sense of normalcy surrounds extreme weather, developed in response to recurring exposure to everyday hazards. This study offers insights into their lived experiences, revealing that the residents' perception of vulnerability often diverges from objective reality, primarily due to the pervasive "everyday disasters" that continually disrupt their lives. This "every day is a disaster" perspective, born from the chronic distress they endure, challenges their ability to recognize extreme weather events as disasters. This research carries implications for the field of social work by emphasizing the necessity of broadening the concept of vulnerability to encompass "everyday disasters," and highlights the pivotal role of social work in addressing the multifaceted challenges presented by everyday disasters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While socioeconomic gradients in regional health inequalities are firmly established, the synergistic interactions between socioeconomic deprivation and climate vulnerability within convenient proximity and neighbourhood locations with health disparities remain poorly explored and thus require deep understanding within a regional context. Furthermore, disregarding the importance of spatial spillover effects and nonlinear effects of covariates on childhood stunting are inevitable in dealing with an enduring issue of regional health inequalities. The present study aims to investigate the spatial inequalities in childhood stunting at the district level in Pakistan and validate the importance of spatial lag in predicting childhood stunting. Furthermore, it examines the presence of any nonlinear relationships among the selected independent features with childhood stunting. The study utilized data related to socioeconomic features from MICS 2017–2018 and climatic data from Integrated Contextual Analysis. A multi-model approach was employed to address the research questions, which included Ordinary Least Squares Regression (OLS), various Spatial Models, Machine Learning Algorithms and Explainable Artificial Intelligence methods. Firstly, OLS was used to analyse and test the linear relationships among selected variables. Secondly, Spatial Durbin Error Model (SDEM) was used to detect and capture the impact of spatial spillover on childhood stunting. Third, XGBoost and Random Forest machine learning algorithms were employed to examine and validate the importance of the spatial lag component. Finally, EXAI methods such as SHapley were utilized to identify potential nonlinear relationships. The study found a clear pattern of spatial clustering and geographical disparities in childhood stunting, with multidimensional poverty, high climate vulnerability and early marriage worsening childhood stunting. In contrast, low climate vulnerability, high exposure to mass media and high women's literacy were found to reduce childhood stunting. The use of machine learning algorithms, specifically XGBoost and Random Forest, highlighted the significant role played by the average value in the neighbourhood in predicting childhood stunting in nearby districts, confirming that the spatial spillover effect is not bounded by geographical boundaries. Furthermore, EXAI methods such as partial dependency plot reveal the existence of a nonlinear relationship between multidimensional poverty and childhood stunting. The study's findings provide valuable insights into the spatial distribution of childhood stunting in Pakistan, emphasizing the importance of considering spatial effects in predicting childhood stunting. Individual and household-level factors such as exposure to mass media and women's literacy have shown positive implications for childhood stunting. It further provides a justification for the usage of EXAI methods to draw better insights and propose customised intervention policies accordingly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of the paper is to examine the influence of climate vulnerability (CV) on the formation of new firms. Employing a large sample of 140 countries spanning the time frame 2006–2020, it has been found that climate vulnerability harms new firm formation. The empirical results show that the negative impact of CV on the average new business formation rate has been 3.40. The results prove to be robust for alternative subsamples and methodology. Furthermore, the results of the quantile regression highlight a parameter heterogeneity in the effect of CV on entrepreneurial activity. Overall, the empirical findings highlight the key role of climate vulnerabilities in developing public policies aimed to spur entrepreneurial activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Indian west coast is under constant threat from climate change-induced hazards. Various social, economic, and infrastructural disparities along the coast cause significant variations in climate vulnerability. Current literature assesses vulnerability either over (1) a large area with poor spatial resolution or (2) a local area with better spatial resolution. The former assessments provide more comprehensive and broad insights into large spatial trends of vulnerability, while the latter provide more accurate and specific inputs needed by the local governments for effective intervention. However, there is a lack of studies that assess vulnerability simultaneously at a high-resolution and over a large geographic area, due to inadequacies in existing methodologies and difficulty in data management and analysis. This is a key gap that we address in our paper. We assess climate vulnerability of the entire Indian west coast at the village level, and propose a novel machine-learning based methodology tailored for high-resolution assessment over large geographic areas. This helped us produce the first high-resolution (i.e. village-level) climate vulnerability map of the entire Indian west coast. We found that the state of Maharashtra has the highest number of vulnerable villages and the state of Kerala has the least number of vulnerable villages. We collate and utilize a large dataset of 112 indicators describing socioeconomic characteristics, infrastructure and availability of financial services, among other aspects, to obtain a comprehensive picture of vulnerability. We analyze geospatial trends and attribute high vulnerability to specific indicators, which will help in effective decision-making at the village level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reducing vulnerability of smallholder farmers to climate change is a global issue. One approach viewed as important in reducing farmers' vulnerability to climate change is Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA). CSA is often seen as an approach to redefine, reposition and sustainably manage agriculture. Given the importance of CSA practices in sustaining the food needs of many farm households in sub-Saharan Africa and Ghana, this study investigates CSA practices that were introduced to farmers by Center for Indigenous Knowledge and Development (CIKOD), interrogates the contributions of CSA to reducing farmers vulnerability to climate change and established the relationship between CSA and climate change adaptation. The study employed a mixed method approach, using 146 smallholder millet and sorghum farmers. Questionnaire and interviews were used to generate primary data for analysis. Descriptive statistics, involving Chisquare test and relative importance index were used to analyze the questionnaire while thematic analytical approach was used to analyze the interviews. The results of the study revealed that CSA practices such as crop rotation, weed control, contour farming, and land rotation are deployed by smallholder farmers to respond to drought, dry spell and flood in the Municipality. Asset holding capacity, credit, access to climate information, and extension services were found to be key determinants of farmers' adoption of CSA practices. The study recommends the need for the Ministry of Food and Agriculture to provide some technical support to smallholder farmers to successfully adopt these practices for sustainable farming. Again, the study recommends the need for nongovernmental organizations and development partners, which over the years have shown interest in promoting CSA practices among farmers, to continuous to support and promote the adoption of CSA by farmers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changing rainfall patterns make farmers increasingly vulnerable to crop failure, income loss and food insecurity. Agroecology is proposed to reduce climate vulnerabilities of farmers, as such practices and social movement aim to create more resilient farm and food systems. It is however fairly unknown if, and to what extent, agroecological farmers are better able to cope with climate induced exposures as compared to conventional smallholders. We conducted 194 surveys with agroecological and conventional smallholders to explore the three components of climate vulnerability: exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. We combined this with field observations and interviews, and an analysis of longterm rainfall data. We also followed up the initial survey analysis with additional focus group discussions. Just as climate change occurs incrementally over time, we highlight modest, yet important differences between conventional and agroecological farmers. We find that agroecological farmers are less vulnerable to short-term dry spells, due to a combination of farming practices that improve soil water retention, like mulching and the use of cover crops. However, the use of botanicals might induce new vulnerabilities, as their processing requires additional labor, and sometimes expenditures, and may not protect the crops from pests and diseases. We also find limitations to agroecology in terms of scale, as most farmers are unable to use botanicals on all their farmland. Yet, agroecological farmers process and apply botanicals for health benefits both in production and consumption of foods, and they can occasionally sell their organic farm products for a higher price than conventional famers. With this study, we emphasize that farmers' reasons to practice agroecology is not just to boost productivity and become more climate resilient, but rather for improving the long-term health of producers, consumers, soils and the environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecuador, a country with distinct coastal (CO), highland (HL), and Amazon (AM) regions that are characterized by unique climatic, ecological, and socio-economic features is highly vulnerable to climate change. This study focuses on these three regions, highlighting their individual importance in the broader context of Ecuador's climate vulnerability. Utilizing dynamically downscaled data from the Regional Climate Model (RCM), we generated precipitation and air temperature projections for the period 2070-2099 under three different climate change scenarios. We indicate projected temperature increases across all three regions: mean temperature increases for the CO, HL and AM regions are of 1.35, 1.55, and 1.21°C, respectively. Each year, the largest temperature increases are predicted for the third quarter (June-August), with the smallest increases predicted for the last quarter (December-February). Precipitation patterns show varied changes, with CO exhibiting a positive mean daily change, in contrast to a mean negative change in the AM region. These region-specific projections underscore the differential impacts of climate change within Ecuador and highlight the necessity for tailored adaptation measures. The study's novel approach, focusing on distinct regional impacts within a single nation, offers valuable insights for policymakers, aiding in the development of effective, region-specific climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. This targeted approach is crucial to address unique challenges faced by different regions, thereby supporting national resilience strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Addressing climate vulnerability remains a priority for economies globally. This study used the panel-corrected standard error (PCSE) methodology to investigate the impact of adaptation financing on climate vulnerability. This analysis examined 52 African countries from 2012 to 2021 while considering their climate adaptation readiness. The impact was also assessed based on the Human Development Index (HDI) categories to reflect different levels of development. The findings showed that adaptation finance considerably influenced climate vulnerability reduction in Africa, particularly in nations with a moderate HDI. However, most countries still need higher levels of adaptation financing, resulting in a small impact on vulnerability reduction. Furthermore, the impact of readiness measures differed by HDI category. Economic and social climate readiness strongly impacted climate vulnerability in high-HDI nations, but governance preparedness was more critical in low-HDI countries. Based on the empirical facts, two policy proposals emerge. First, it is critical to reconsider the distribution of adaptation financing to reduce disparities and effectively alleviate climate vulnerability. Moreover, African economies should consider implementing innovative localized financing mechanisms to mobilize extra adaptation finance. Second, African governments should customize climate readiness interventions based on their HDI levels to improve the achievement of a positive impact on climate vulnerability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Space & Society / Tér és Társadalom is the property of Centre for Economic & Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Reducing vulnerability of smallholder farmers to climate change is a global issue. One approach viewed as important in reducing farmers’ vulnerability to climate change is Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA). CSA is often seen as an approach to redefine, reposition and sustainably manage agriculture. Given the importance of CSA practices in sustaining the food needs of many farm households in sub-Saharan Africa and Ghana, this study investigates CSA practices that were introduced to farmers by Center for Indigenous Knowledge and Development (CIKOD), interrogates the contributions of CSA to reducing farmers vulnerability to climate change and established the relationship between CSA and climate change adaptation. The study employed a mixed method approach, using 146 smallholder millet and sorghum farmers. Questionnaire and interviews were used to generate primary data for analysis. Descriptive statistics, involving Chi-square test and relative importance index were used to analyze the questionnaire while thematic analytical approach was used to analyze the interviews. The results of the study revealed that CSA practices such as crop rotation, weed control, contour farming, and land rotation are deployed by smallholder farmers to respond to drought, dry spell and flood in the Municipality. Asset holding capacity, credit, access to climate information, and extension services were found to be key determinants of farmers’ adoption of CSA practices. The study recommends the need for the Ministry of Food and Agriculture to provide some technical support to smallholder farmers to successfully adopt these practices for sustainable farming. Again, the study recommends the need for non-governmental organizations and development partners, which over the years have shown interest in promoting CSA practices among farmers, to continuous to support and promote the adoption of CSA by farmers.

Understanding the adaptive potential of populations and species is pivotal for minimizing the loss of biodiversity in this era of rapid climate change. Adaptive potential has been estimated in various ways, including based on levels of standing genetic variation, presence of potentially beneficial alleles, and/or the severity of environmental change. Kokanee salmon, the non‐migratory ecotype of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka), is culturally and economically important and has already been impacted by the effects of climate change. To assess its climate vulnerability moving forward, we integrated analyses of standing genetic variation, genotype‐environment associations, and climate modeling based on sequence and structural genomic variation from 224 whole genomes sampled from 22 lakes in British Columbia and Yukon (Canada). We found that variables for extreme temperatures, particularly warmer temperatures, had the most pervasive signature of selection in the genome and were the strongest predictors of levels of standing variation and of putatively adaptive genomic variation, both sequence and structural. Genomic offset estimates, a measure of climate vulnerability, were significantly correlated with higher increases in extreme warm temperatures, further highlighting the risk of summer heat waves that are predicted to increase in frequency in the future. Levels of standing genetic variation, an important metric for population viability and resilience, were not correlated with genomic offset. Nonetheless, our combined approach highlights the importance of integrating different sources of information and genomic data to formulate more comprehensive and accurate predictions on the vulnerability of populations and species to future climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vulnerability to climate change is a complex, multi-dimensional construct influenced by multiple interacting factors. Several methods and approaches have been developed over the past three decades, yet there are no standard methods for assessing vulnerability (Connelly et al. in State of the art report (4) vulnerability assessment: definitions, indicators and existing assessment methods (issue 4), 2015). The vulnerability assessment studies differ in conceptualization, methodology, sectors affected, exposure to specific hazards, regional factors, and the scale of impact. Assessment of climate vulnerability and identification of indicators to measure it are significant problems. This paper provides a comprehensive and systematic review of indicator-based vulnerability assessment studies from 1990 to 2020. We analyse 84 studies to understand various aspects of vulnerability assessment—concept and approach, dimensions and indicators, and assessment methods. Though multi-dimensional assessments represent the overall vulnerability of an area, only 29.8% of the studies assessed more than one dimension. Analysis shows that 68.8% (75 of 109) of the identified indicators belong to the socioeconomic dimension. Socioeconomic vulnerability is the most assessed, and environmental vulnerability is the least assessed dimension, possibly attributed to ease of data availability. Due to the lack of methodological differences, there has been confusion associated with index-based and indicator-based studies in the literature (Ramieri et al. in Methods for assessing coastal vulnerability to climate change. ETC CCA Tech Paper 1/2011 (issue January), 2011. 10.13140/RG.2.1.1906.9840). Therefore, we develop a taxonomy of the existing vulnerability assessment methods based on their methodological approach. To avoid ambiguity, we denote all methods that employ indicators as indicator-based vulnerability assessment methods and classify them into index-based, clustering-based, and GIS-based methods. Finally, we discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each vulnerability assessment method and the open challenges in this research area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accumulation by adaptation names the phenomenon by which political and economic elites profit from climate adaptation efforts. As with the notion of 'accumulation by dispossession' from which it derives, the term speaks to the injustice of capital accumulation—in this case, accumulation associated with configuring some groups' vulnerability to climate change as business opportunities. However, unlike accumulation by dispossession, the mechanisms by which accumulation by adaptation proceeds have not been adequately conceptualized. This review synthesizes critiques of Marx's formulation of primitive accumulation, recent scholarship on colonial racial capitalism, and critical adaptation studies to locate how capital circulates through and reproduces the violence of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study dissects the patterns and trends of communal violence in Nigeria with the need to watch out for emerging predictors. Using variables like ethno-religious polarization, lootable resources, and climate vulnerability, the article dissects their impacts on the trends of communal violence in Nigeria. Based on data from the Nigerian Security Tracker, Nigeria Watch, and the Federal Ministry of Environment (2014 to 2021), this study uses cluster analyses of the conflicts using maps and tables to analyze the patterns and new dimensions of conflicts. The study found evidence that ethno-religious polarization is a predictor of trends of communal violence in Nigeria. The weakest predictor of communal violence, according to the model, is climate vulnerability in Nigeria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecuador, a country with distinct coastal (CO), highland (HL), and Amazon (AM) regions that are characterized by unique climatic, ecological, and socio-economic features is highly vulnerable to climate change. This study focuses on these three regions, highlighting their individual importance in the broader context of Ecuador's climate vulnerability. Utilizing dynamically downscaled data from the Regional Climate Model (RCM), we generated precipitation and air temperature projections for the period 2070–2099 under three different climate change scenarios. We indicate projected temperature increases across all three regions: mean temperature increases for the CO, HL and AM regions are of 1.35, 1.55, and 1.21°C, respectively. Each year, the largest temperature increases are predicted for the third quarter (June–August), with the smallest increases predicted for the last quarter (December–February). Precipitation patterns show varied changes, with CO exhibiting a positive mean daily change, in contrast to a mean negative change in the AM region. These region-specific projections underscore the differential impacts of climate change within Ecuador and highlight the necessity for tailored adaptation measures. The study's novel approach, focusing on distinct regional impacts within a single nation, offers valuable insights for policymakers, aiding in the development of effective, region-specific climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. This targeted approach is crucial to address unique challenges faced by different regions, thereby supporting national resilience strategies.

Within the past decade, the attribution of extreme weather events and their impacts has enabled scientists, the public, and policymakers alike to connect real-world experiences of extreme weather events with scientific understanding of anthropogenic climate change. Attribution studies of recent extreme weather events have formed a new and important line of evidence in the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report understanding present-day impacts of climate change. IPCC studies using different methods of event attribution have been assessed together, highlighting that these differences are smaller than the academic discourse on the methods suggests. This development raised two important research questions the science needs to answer: First, how do we formally combine attribution statements using highly conditional methods with probabilistic assessments of how climate change alters the likelihood and intensity of extreme weather events? Second, under what circumstances are individual attribution studies still necessary and to what extent do existing attribution studies provide enough information to answer societal questions? Furthermore, the scientific development still leaves important gaps, particularly in countries of the Global South, leading to ethical questions around the need and requirement of attribution of extreme events in policy contexts, informing adaptation and loss and damage and the role of vulnerability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

According to the climate change scenario, climate change in the Korean Peninsula is expected to worsen due to extreme temperatures, with effects such as rising average temperatures, heat waves, and droughts. In Republic of Korea, which relies on foreign countries for the supply of forage crops, a decrease in the productivity of forage crops is expected to cause increased damage to the domestic livestock industry. In this paper, to solve the issue of climate vulnerability for forage crops, we performed a study to predict the productivity of forage crops in relation to climate change. We surveyed and compiled not only forage crop production data from various regions, but also experimental cultivation production data over several years from reports of the Korea Institute of Animal Science and Technology. Then, we crawled related climate data from the Korea Meteorological Administration. Therefore, we were able to construct a basic database for forage crop production data and related climate data. Using the database, a production prediction model was implemented, applying a multivariate regression analysis and deep learning regression. The key factors were determined as a result of analyzing the changes in forage crop production due to climate change. Using the prediction model, it could be possible to forecast the shifting locations of suitable cultivation areas. As a result of our study, we were able to construct electromagnetic climate maps for forage crops in Republic of Korea. It can be used to present region-specific agricultural insights and guidelines for cultivation technology for forage crops against climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the past decade, the increase in extreme weather events requires each sector to reflect on vulnerabilities to develop strategies for ramping up climate action. Owing to the shortage of climate data, significant knowledge gaps exist in some sectors of society and the economy, particularly in developing countries such as Africa. This has caused challenges for adaptation and resilience building as governments and other stakeholders cannot leverage knowledge for policy and practice and to seek funding for climate change action. This study responds to this knowledge by examining sea level challenges and their implications on coastal national parks in South Africa. The key question for this study is the most at-risk areas regarding sea level in coastal national parks and the implications of sea level on coastal national parks. The study utilises primary, secondary and archival data to arrive at conclusions. The study also uses climate change modelling data from SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0. The study found that the most vulnerable coastal park in South Africa is the Garden Route National Park, which has the highest sea level rise, which will result in the Knysna section followed by the Cape Point section of Table Mountain, which will see the areas witnessing a 1m rise in sea level around 2100. Sea level rise is a threat to infrastructure, heritag e, beaches, tourism employees and tourist safety, to mention but a few. The study recommends scaling up climate change action to assist the parks in adapting and building climate change resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Species' thermal tolerances are used to estimate climate vulnerability, but few studies consider the role of the hydric environment in shaping thermal tolerances. As environments become hotter and drier, organisms often respond by limiting water loss to lower the risk of desiccation; however, reducing water loss may produce trade‐offs that lower thermal tolerances if respiration becomes inhibited. Here, we measured the sensitivity of water loss rate and critical thermal maximum (CTmax) to precipitation in nature and laboratory experiments that exposed click beetles (Coleoptera: Elateridae) to acute‐ and long‐term humidity treatments. We also took advantage of their unique clicking behavior to characterize subcritical thermal tolerances. We found higher water loss rates in the dry acclimation treatment compared to the humid, and water loss rates were 3.2‐fold higher for individuals that had experienced a recent precipitation event compared to individuals that had not. Acute humidity treatments did not affect CTmax, but precipitation indirectly affected CTmax through its effect on water loss rates. Contrary to our prediction, we found that CTmax was negatively associated with water loss rate, such that individuals with high water loss rate exhibited a lower CTmax. We then incorporated the observed variation of CTmax into a mechanistic niche model that coupled leaf and click beetle temperatures to predict climate vulnerability. The simulations indicated that indices of climate vulnerability can be sensitive to the effects of water loss physiology on thermal tolerances; moreover, exposure to temperatures above subcritical thermal thresholds is expected to increase by as much as 3.3‐fold under future warming scenarios. The correlation between water loss rate and CTmax identifies the need to study thermal tolerances from a "whole‐organism" perspective that considers relationships between physiological traits, and the population‐level variation in CTmax driven by water loss rate complicates using this metric as a straightforward proxy of climate vulnerability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the billion-dollar global illegal wildlife trade, rosewoods have been the world's most trafficked wild product since 2005. Dalbergia cochinchinensis and Dalbergia oliveri are the most sought-after rosewoods in the Greater Mekong Subregion. They are exposed to significant genetic risks and the lack of knowledge on their adaptability limits the effectiveness of conservation efforts. Here, we present genome assemblies and range-wide genomic scans of adaptive variation, together with predictions of genomic offset to climate change. Adaptive genomic variation was differentially associated with temperature and precipitation-related variables between the species, although their natural ranges overlap. The findings are consistent with differences in pioneering ability and in drought tolerance. We predict their genomic offsets will increase over time and with increasing carbon emission pathway but at a faster pace in D. cochinchinensis than in D. oliveri. These results and the distinct gene--environment association in the eastern coastal edge of Vietnam suggest species-specific conservation actions: germplasm representation across the range in D. cochinchinensis and focused on hotspots of genomic offset in D. oliveri. We translated our genomic models into a seed source matching application, seedeR, to rapidly inform restoration efforts. Our ecological genomic research uncovering contrasting selection forces acting in sympatric rosewoods is of relevance to conserving tropical trees globally and combating risks from climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Undertaking climate vulnerability assessments (CVAs) on marine fisheries is instrumental to the identification of regions, species, and stakeholders at risk of impacts from climate change, and the development of effective and targeted responses for fisheries adaptation. In this global literature review, we addressed three important questions to characterize fisheries CVAs: (i) what are the available approaches to develop CVAs in various social–ecological contexts, (ii) are different geographic scales and regions adequately represented, and (iii) how do diverse knowledge systems contribute to current understanding of vulnerability? As part of these general research efforts, we identified and characterized an inventory of frameworks and indicators that encompass a wide range of foci on ecological and socioeconomic dimensions of climate vulnerability on fisheries. Our analysis highlighted a large gap between countries with top research inputs and the most urgent adaptation needs. More research and resources are needed in low‐income tropical countries to ensure existing inequities are not exacerbated. We also identified an uneven research focus across spatial scales and cautioned a possible scale mismatch between assessment and management needs. Drawing on this information, we catalog (1) a suite of research directions that could improve the utility and applicability of CVAs, particularly the examination of barriers and enabling conditions that influence the uptake of CVA results into management responses at multiple levels, (2) the lessons that have been learned from applications in data‐limited regions, particularly the use of proxy indicators and knowledge co‐production to overcome the problem of data deficiency, and (3) opportunities for wider applications, for example diversifying the use of vulnerability indicators in broader monitoring and management schemes. This information is used to provide a set of recommendations that could advance meaningful CVA practices for fisheries management and promote effective translation of climate vulnerability into adaptation actions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Objective: To evaluate the vulnerability of Bull Trout Salvelinus confluentus to potential climate changes across its range in Oregon, we compiled disparate expert knowledge of the distribution of spawning and rearing and combined these probabilistic statements as data along with documented records of breeding and rearing in a joint occupancy model. Methods: The joint expert knowledge–occupancy model, which was based on discrete patches of cold water (≤13°C) suitable for spawning and rearing, permitted the association of true occupancy with climate and other explanatory variables while accounting for variation in detection probability. We then applied estimated relationships of patch occupancy with explanatory variables to projected coldwater patch configurations in the years 2040 and 2080. Result: Projections of the kilometers of occupied coldwater patch in future decades suggest precipitous declines if current relationships of occupancy with environmental variables are maintained. Impacts of climate changes in future decades manifest directly through the outright loss of coldwater patches and increases in winter high flows but also indirectly by increased isolation. Conclusion: Combining probabilistic statements of species distributions from knowledgeable experts with sparse occupancy data may be a robust and timely alternative when large numbers of repeated occupancy surveys are infeasible. Impact statementThis study provides a novel approach for developing species distribution models using expert knowledge. This approach may be valuable for applications to species that are difficult to otherwise study or survey. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change affects virtually all marine life and is increasingly a dominant concern for fisheries, reinforcing the need to incorporate climate variability and change when managing fish stocks. Canada is expected to experience widespread climate-driven impacts on its fisheries but does not yet have a clear adaptation strategy. Here, we provide an overview of a project we are developing, the Climate Adaptation Framework for Fisheries, to address this need and support climate adaptation in Canadian marine fisheries. The framework seeks to quantitatively and flexibly evaluate species, fishing infrastructure, and the management and operation of fisheries to assess climate vulnerability comprehensively and provide outputs that can support climate adaptation planning across different sectors, agencies, and stakeholders. This new framework should allow future climate scenarios to be evaluated and identify actionable climate vulnerabilities related to the management of fisheries, creating a systematic approach to supporting climate adaptation in Canada’s fisheries.

According to reports from international institutions such as Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, United Nations Development Programme, and the World Bank, the impacts of climate change will continue affecting the Least Developed Countries (LDC) for the coming years and the less resilient countries, defined by the climate vulnerability index (CVI), will be the most vulnerable. The CVI relates the Exposure and Adaptive Capacity for a specific Hazard, offering feasible supports for decision-makers in identifying country-specific needs to adapt to climate change. However, even with this scenario, the LDCs are still unable to cope with the impact of extreme events. Therefore, the main question is, which part of Adaptive Capacity needs more effort to deal with extreme weather events? To address this issue, this paper discusses the governance role in the CVI definition, suggesting an alternative approach to assess climate vulnerability. Overall, we propose a tool, taking into account four main components: Exposure, Sensitivity, Adaptive Capacity, and Governance. In this case, the Governance component represents organizations, policies, and qualified human resources that could improve the planning and management of a specific system. More specifically, we explicitly considered the Governance component in the climate vulnerability function by adding specific indicators. As a study case, we consider Mozambique, a highly vulnerable country to the adverse impact of climate change. The results have shown that by adding the Governance component to assess climate vulnerability, the function becomes more sensitive. In conclusion, Governance is accepted as a powerful component in the CVI definition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Species conservation plans frequently rely on information that spans political and administrative boundaries, especially when predictions are needed of future habitat under climate change; however, most species conservation plans and their requisite predictions of future habitat are often limited in geographical scope. Moreover, dispersal constraints for species of concern are not often incorporated into distribution models, which can result in overly optimistic predictions of future habitat. We used a standard modeling approach across a suite of 23 taxa of amphibians and reptiles in the North American deserts (560,024 km2 across 13 ecoregions) to assess impacts of climate change on habitat and combined landscape population dispersal simulations with species distribution modeling to reduce the risk of predicting future habitat in areas that are not available to species given their dispersal abilities. We used 3 general circulation models and 2 representative concentration pathways (RCPs) to represent multiple scenarios of future habitat potential and assess which study species may be most vulnerable to changes forecasted under each climate scenario. Amphibians were the most vulnerable taxa, but the most vulnerable species tended to be those with the lowest dispersal ability rather than those with the most specialized niches. Under the most optimistic climate scenario considered (RCP 2.6; a stringent scenario requiring declining emissions from 2020 to near zero emissions by 2100), 76% of the study area may experience a loss of >20% of the species examined, while up to 87% of the species currently present may be lost in some areas under the most pessimistic climate scenario (RCP 8.5; a scenario wherein greenhouse gases continue to increase through 2100 based on trajectories from the mid‐century). Most areas with high losses were concentrated in the Arizona and New Mexico Plateau ecoregion, the Edwards Plateau in Texas, and the Southwestern Tablelands in New Mexico and Texas, USA. Under the most pessimistic climate scenario, all species are predicted to lose some existing habitat, with an average of 34% loss of extant habitat across all species. Even under the most optimistic scenario, we detected an average loss of 24% of extant habitat across all species, suggesting that changing climates may influence the ranges of reptiles and amphibians in the Southwest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Conjuntura Austral is the property of Conjuntura Austral and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)