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Biological N 2 fixation sustains the global inventory of nitrogenous nutrients essential for the productivity of terrestrial and marine ecosystems. Like most metabolic processes, rates of biological N 2 fixation vary strongly with temperature, making it sensitive to climate change, but a global projection across land and ocean is lacking. Here we use compilations of field and laboratory measurements to reveal a relationship between N 2 fixation rates and temperature that is similar in both domains despite large taxonomic and environmental differences. Rates of N 2 fixation increase gradually to a thermal optimum around ~25°C, and decline more rapidly toward a thermal maximum, which is lower in the ocean than on land. In both realms, the observed temperature sensitivities imply that climate warming this century could decrease N 2 fixation rates by ~50% in the tropics while increasing rates by ~50% in higher latitudes. We propose a conceptual framework for understanding the physiological and ecological mechanisms that underpin and modulate the observed temperature dependence of global N 2 fixation rates, facilitating cross-fertilization of marine and terrestrial research to assess its response to climate change., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests No interests are declared., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

The California Current Marine Ecosystem is a highly productive system that exhibits strong natural variability and vulnerability to anthropogenic climate trends. Relating projections of ocean change to biological sensitivities requires detailed synthesis of experimental results. Here, we combine measured biological sensitivities with high-resolution climate projections of key variables (temperature, oxygen, and pCO 2 ) to identify the direction, magnitude, and spatial distribution of organism-scale vulnerabilities to multiple axes of projected ocean change. Among 12 selected species of cultural and economic importance, we find that all are sensitive to projected changes in ocean conditions through responses that affect individual performance or population processes. Response indices were largest in the northern region and inner shelf. While performance traits generally increased with projected changes, fitness traits generally decreased, indicating that concurrent stresses can lead to fitness loss. For two species, combining sensitivities to temperature and oxygen changes through the Metabolic Index shows how aerobic habitat availability could be compressed under future conditions. Our results suggest substantial and specific ecological susceptibility in the next 80 years, including potential regional loss of canopy-forming kelp, changes in nearshore food webs caused by declining rates of survival among red urchins, Dungeness crab, and razor clams, and loss of aerobic habitat for anchovy and pink shrimp. We also highlight fillable gaps in knowledge, including specific physiological responses to stressors, variation in responses across life stages, and responses to multistressor combinations. These findings strengthen the case for filling information gaps with experiments focused on fitness-related responses and those that can be used to parameterize integrative physiological models, and suggest that the CCME is susceptible to substantial changes to ecosystem structure and function within this century., (© 2022 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Rising temperatures are associated with reduced body size in many marine species, but the biological cause and generality of the phenomenon is debated. We derive a predictive model for body size responses to temperature and oxygen (O 2 ) changes based on thermal and geometric constraints on organismal O 2 supply and demand across the size spectrum. The model reproduces three key aspects of the observed patterns of intergenerational size reductions measured in laboratory warming experiments of diverse aquatic ectotherms (i.e., the "temperature-size rule" [TSR]). First, the interspecific mean and variability of the TSR is predicted from species' temperature sensitivities of hypoxia tolerance, whose nonlinearity with temperature also explains the second TSR pattern-its amplification as temperatures rise. Third, as body size increases across the tree of life, the impact of growth on O 2 demand declines while its benefit to O 2 supply rises, decreasing the size dependence of hypoxia tolerance and requiring larger animals to contract by a larger fraction to compensate for a thermally driven rise in metabolism. Together our results support O 2 limitation as the mechanism underlying the TSR, and they provide a physiological basis for projecting ectotherm body size responses to climate change from microbes to macrofauna. For small species unable to rapidly migrate or evolve greater hypoxia tolerance, ocean warming and O 2 loss in this century are projected to induce >20% reductions in body mass. Size reductions at higher trophic levels could be even stronger and more variable, compounding the direct impact of human harvesting on size-structured ocean food webs.

Rapid climate change at the end of the Permian Period (~252 million years ago) is the hypothesized trigger for the largest mass extinction in Earth's history. We present model simulations of the Permian/Triassic climate transition that reproduce the ocean warming and oxygen (O 2 ) loss indicated by the geologic record. The effect of these changes on animal survival is evaluated using the Metabolic Index (Φ), a measure of scope for aerobic activity governed by organismal traits sampled in diverse modern species. Modeled loss of aerobic habitat predicts lower extinction intensity in the tropics, a pattern confirmed with a spatially explicit analysis of the marine fossil record. The combined physiological stresses of ocean warming and O 2 loss can account for more than half the magnitude of the "Great Dying.", (Copyright © 2018 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.)

Oxygen concentrations are hypothesized to decrease in many areas of the ocean as a result of anthropogenically driven climate change, resulting in habitat compression for pelagic animals. The oxygen partial pressure, pO 2 , at which blood is 50% saturated (P 50 ) is a measure of blood oxygen affinity and a gauge of the tolerance of animals for low ambient oxygen. Tuna species display a wide range of blood oxygen affinities (i.e., P 50 values) and therefore may be differentially impacted by habitat compression as they make extensive vertical movements to forage on subdaily time scales. To project the effects of end-of-the-century climate change on tuna habitat, we calculate tuna P 50 depths (i.e., the vertical position in the water column at which ambient pO 2 is equal to species-specific blood P 50 values) from 21st century Earth System Model (ESM) projections included in the fifth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Overall, we project P 50 depths to shoal, indicating likely habitat compression for tuna species due to climate change. Tunas that will be most impacted by shoaling are Pacific and southern bluefin tunas-habitat compression is projected for the entire geographic range of Pacific bluefin tuna and for the spawning region of southern bluefin tuna. Vertical shifts in P 50 depths will potentially influence resource partitioning among Pacific bluefin, bigeye, yellowfin, and skipjack tunas in the northern subtropical and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, the Arabian Sea, and the Bay of Bengal. By establishing linkages between tuna physiology and environmental conditions, we provide a mechanistic basis to project the effects of anthropogenic climate change on tuna habitats., (Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.)

Warming of the oceans and consequent loss of dissolved oxygen (O2) will alter marine ecosystems, but a mechanistic framework to predict the impact of multiple stressors on viable habitat is lacking. Here, we integrate physiological, climatic, and biogeographic data to calibrate and then map a key metabolic index-the ratio of O2 supply to resting metabolic O2 demand-across geographic ranges of several marine ectotherms. These species differ in thermal and hypoxic tolerances, but their contemporary distributions are all bounded at the equatorward edge by a minimum metabolic index of ~2 to 5, indicative of a critical energetic requirement for organismal activity. The combined effects of warming and O2 loss this century are projected to reduce the upper ocean's metabolic index by ~20% globally and by ~50% in northern high-latitude regions, forcing poleward and vertical contraction of metabolically viable habitats and species ranges., (Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.)

Difficulty in characterizing the relationship between climatic variability and climate change vulnerability arises when we consider the multiple scales at which this variation occurs, be it temporal (from minute to annual) or spatial (from centimetres to kilometres). We studied populations of a single widely distributed butterfly species, Chlosyne lacinia, to examine the physiological, morphological, thermoregulatory and biophysical underpinnings of adaptation to tropical and temperate climates. Microclimatic and morphological data along with a biophysical model documented the importance of solar radiation in predicting butterfly body temperature. We also integrated the biophysics with a physiologically based insect fitness model to quantify the influence of solar radiation, morphology and behaviour on warming impact projections. While warming is projected to have some detrimental impacts on tropical ectotherms, fitness impacts in this study are not as negative as models that assume body and air temperature equivalence would suggest. We additionally show that behavioural thermoregulation can diminish direct warming impacts, though indirect thermoregulatory consequences could further complicate predictions. With these results, at multiple spatial and temporal scales, we show the importance of biophysics and behaviour for studying biodiversity consequences of global climate change, and stress that tropical climate change impacts are likely to be context-dependent., (© 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.)

Whether movement will enable organisms to alleviate thermal stress is central to the biodiversity implications of climate change. We use the temperature-dependence of ectotherm performance to investigate the fitness consequences of movement. Movement to an optimal location within a 50 km radius will only offset the fitness impacts of climate change by 2100 in 5 per cent of locations globally. Random movement carries an 87 per cent risk of further fitness detriment. Mountainous regions with high temperature seasonality (i.e. temperate areas) not only offer the greatest benefit from optimal movement but also the most severe fitness consequences if an organism moves to the wrong location. Doubling dispersal capacity would provide modest benefit exclusively to directed dispersers in topographically diverse areas. The benefits of movement for escaping climate change are particularly limited in the tropics, where fitness impacts will be most severe. The potential of movement to lessen climate change impacts may have been overestimated.

Oxygen (O(2)) is a critical constraint on marine ecosystems. As oceanic O(2) falls to hypoxic concentrations, habitability for aerobic organisms decreases rapidly. We show that the spatial extent of hypoxia is highly sensitive to small changes in the ocean's O(2) content, with maximum responses at suboxic concentrations where anaerobic metabolisms predominate. In model-based reconstructions of historical oxygen changes, the world's largest suboxic zone, in the Pacific Ocean, varies in size by a factor of 2. This is attributable to climate-driven changes in the depth of the tropical and subtropical thermocline that have multiplicative effects on respiration rates in low-O(2) water. The same mechanism yields even larger fluctuations in the rate of nitrogen removal by denitrification, creating a link between decadal climate oscillations and the nutrient limitation of marine photosynthesis.

The ability to anticipate marine habitat shifts responding to climate variability has high scientific and socioeconomic value. Here we quantify interannual-to-decadal predictability of habitat shifts by combining trait-based aerobic habitat constraints with a suite of initialized retrospective Earth System Model forecasts, for diverse marine ecotypes in the North American Large Marine Ecosystems. We find that aerobic habitat viability, defined by joint constraints of temperature and oxygen on organismal energy balance, is potentially predictable in the upper-600 m ocean, showing a substantial improvement over a simple persistence forecast. The skillful multiyear predictability is dominated by the oxygen component in most ecosystems, yielding higher predictability than previously estimated based on temperature alone. Notable predictability differences exist among ecotypes differing in temperature sensitivity of hypoxia vulnerability, especially along the northeast coast with predictability timescale ranging from 2 to 10 years. This tool will be critical in predicting marine habitat shifts in face of a changing climate.

Climate warming is expected to intensify hypoxia in the California Current System (CCS), threatening its diverse and productive marine ecosystem. We analyzed past regional variability and future changes in the Metabolic Index (Φ), a species-specific measure of the environment's capacity to meet temperature-dependent organismal oxygen demand. Across the traits of diverse animals, Φ exhibits strong seasonal to interdecadal variations throughout the CCS, implying that resident species already experience large fluctuations in available aerobic habitat. For a key CCS species, northern anchovy, the long-term biogeographic distribution and decadal fluctuations in abundance are both highly coherent with aerobic habitat volume. Ocean warming and oxygen loss by 2100 are projected to decrease Φ below critical levels in 30 to 50% of anchovies' present range, including complete loss of aerobic habitat-and thus likely extirpation-from the southern CCS. Aerobic habitat loss will vary widely across the traits of CCS taxa, disrupting ecological interactions throughout the region.

The metabolism and hypoxia tolerance of marine ectotherms play key roles in limiting species geographical ranges, but underlying traits have only been directly measured for a small fraction of biodiversity. Here we diagnose and analyse spatial and phylogenetic patterns in hypoxia tolerance and its temperature sensitivity at ecologically active metabolic rates, by combining a model of organismal oxygen (O2) balance with global climate and biogeographic data for approximately 25 000 animal species from 13 phyla. Large-scale spatial trait patterns reveal that active hypoxia tolerance is greater and less temperature sensitive among tropical species compared to polar ones, consistent with sparse experimental data. Species energetic demands for activity vary less with temperature than resting costs, an inference confirmed by available rate measurements. Across the tree of life, closely related species share similar hypoxia traits, indicating that evolutionary history shapes physiological tolerances to O2 and temperature. Trait frequencies are highly conserved across phyla, suggesting the breadth of global aerobic conditions selects for convergent trait diversity. Our results support aerobic limitation as a constraint on marine habitat distributions and their responses to climate change and highlight the under-sampling of aerobic traits among species living in the ocean's tropical and polar oxythermal extremes. This article is part of the theme issue 'The evolutionary significance of variation in metabolic rates'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article presents the findings of a study on tropical paleobiology and its implications for understanding biodiversity in the past. Contrary to the prevailing belief that tropical warming reduces biodiversity, the study reveals that biodiversity during a warmer period in the past was actually higher than present-day biodiversity. The authors suggest that sampling bias and the presence of the Amazon River may have influenced these findings, and they also consider the possibility that slightly elevated temperatures during the past period promoted greater diversity. The article also discusses the potential factors contributing to the decline in species diversity in tropical marine ecosystems since the Last Interglacial (LIG) period, including the role of humans. However, the overall reduction in diversity cannot be solely attributed to human impact. The article emphasizes the need for a better understanding of historical changes and ecosystem dynamics in tropical areas to fully comprehend the dynamics of biodiversity in these regions. [Extracted from the article]

Recent earth system models predict a 10 %–20 % decrease in particulate organic carbon export from the surface ocean by the end of the 21st century due to global climate change. This decline is mainly caused by increased stratification of the upper ocean, resulting in reduced shallow subsurface nutrient concentrations and a slower supply of nutrients to the surface euphotic zone in low latitudes. These predictions, however, do not typically account for associated changes in remineralization depths driven by sinking-particle size. Here we combine satellite-derived export and particle size maps with a simple 3-D global biogeochemical model that resolves dynamic particle size distributions to investigate how shifts in particle size may buffer or amplify predicted changes in surface nutrient supply and therefore export production. We show that higher export rates are empirically correlated with larger sinking particles and presumably larger phytoplankton, particularly in tropical and subtropical regions. Incorporating these empirical relationships into our global model shows that as circulation slows, a decrease in export is associated with a shift towards smaller particles, which sink more slowly and are thus remineralized shallower. This shift towards shallower remineralization in turn leads to greater recycling of nutrients in the upper water column and thus faster nutrient recirculation into the euphotic zone. The end result is a boost in productivity and export that counteracts the initial circulation-driven decreases. This negative feedback mechanism (termed the particle-size–remineralization feedback) slows export decline over the next century by ∼ 14 % globally (from - 0.29 to - 0.25 GtCyr-1) and by ∼ 20 % in the tropical and subtropical oceans, where export decreases are currently predicted to be greatest. Our findings suggest that to more accurately predict changes in biological pump strength under a warming climate, earth system models should include dynamic particle-size-dependent remineralization depths. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal winds in the California Current System (CCS) are credited with the high productivity of its planktonic ecosystem and the shallow hypoxic and corrosive waters that structure diverse macrofaunal habitats. These winds thus are considered a leading mediator of climate change impacts in the CCS and other Eastern Boundary Upwelling systems. We use an eddy‐permitting regional model to downscale the response of the CCS to three of the major distinct climate changes commonly projected by global Earth System Models: regional winds, ocean warming and stratification, and remote water chemical properties. An increase in alongshore winds intensifies spring upwelling across the CCS, but this response is muted by increased stratification, especially during summer. Despite the seasonal shift in regional wind‐driven upwelling, basin‐scale changes are the decisive factor in the response of marine ecosystem properties including temperature, nutrients, productivity, and oxygen. Downscaled temperature increases and dissolved oxygen decreases are broadly consistent with coarse resolution Earth System Models, and these projected changes are large and well constrained across the models, whereas nutrient and productivity changes are small compared to the intermodel spread. These results imply that global models with poor resolution of coastal processes nevertheless yield important information about the dominant climate impacts on coastal ecosystems. Key Points: We dynamically downscale the response of the California Current System to climate changes from five global Earth System ModelsStratification and remote chemical properties, rather than regional winds, play a decisive role in coastal biogeochemistry changesOxygen decreases and temperature increases are robust across downscaled models, but the nutrient and productivity changes are not [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Earth System Models predict a 10-20% decrease in ocean carbon export production by the end of the 21[sup st ]century due to global climate change. This decline is caused by increased stratification of the upper ocean, resulting in reduced shallow subsurface nutrient concentrations and a slower supply of nutrients to the surface euphotic zone. These predictions, however, do not account for associated changes in sinking particle size and remineralization depth. Here we combine satellite-derived export and particle size maps with a simple 3-D global biogeochemical model to investigate how shifts in sinking particle size may buffer predicted changes in surface nutrient supply and therefore export production. We show that higher export rates are correlated with larger phytoplankton and sinking particles, especially in tropical and subtropical regions. Incorporation of these empirical relationships into a global model shows that as circulation slows, a decrease in export and associated shift toward smaller phytoplankton yields particles that sink more slowly and are thus remineralized shallower; this in turn leads to greater recycling of nutrients in the upper water column and faster nutrient recirculation into the euphotic zone, boosting productivity and export to counteract the initial circulation-driven decreases. This negative feedback mechanism (termed the particle size-remineralization feedback) slows export decline over the next century by ~14% globally and by ~20% in the tropical and subtropical oceans, where export decreases are currently predicted to be greatest. Thus, incorporating dynamic particle size-dependent remineralization depths into Earth System Models will result in more robust predictions of changes in biological pump strength in a warming climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Thermal physiology is commonly used in mechanistic models to predict species distribution and project distribution change. Such thermal constraints for ants are often measured under laboratory conditions as critical thermal limits (CTmax and CTmin), but have also been observed in the field as foraging thermal limits (FTmin and FTmax). Here we compared distribution projections based on ant physiological and behavioural thermal limits with their realized distributions to assess the validity of using ecophysiological models to predict species ranges over large scales. Location: Global. Taxon: Ants. Methods: From published literature, we compiled a database of 148 lab‐measured critical thermal limits and 137 field‐observed foraging thermal limits for 20 ant genera distributed around the world. We projected their potential ranges using active hour thresholds by matching their thermal limits or preferred thermal breadth (incorporating thermal optima) with hourly surface temperature data. We then compared the projections against a comprehensive global database of ant distributions to assess the validity of physiologically and behaviourally based models. Results: We found that surface temperature plays a clear role in generic‐level ant biogeography. Projections based on foraging thermal limits were more conservative in constraining ranges to observed distributions, while projections based on critical thermal limits often overestimated ranges. Furthermore, thermal limit models can be improved by incorporating behaviourally derived thermal optima. Main conclusions: Our results suggest that temperature‐dependent activity niches and thermal optima better reveal species realized thermal niches than critical thermal limits, and hence can improve predictions of species distributions and future distribution changes under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the mechanisms of interannual and decadal variability of dissolved oxygen (O2) in the North Pacific using historical observations and a hindcast simulation using the Community Earth System Model. The simulated variability of upper ocean (200 m) O2 is moderately correlated with observations where sampling density is relatively high. The dominant mode of O2 variability explains 24.8% of the variance and is significantly correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index (r = 0.68). Two primary mechanisms are hypothesized by which the PDO controls upper ocean O2 variability. Vertical movement of isopycnals ("heave") drives O2 variations in the deep tropics; isopycnal surfaces are depressed in the eastern tropics under the positive (El Niño‐like) phase of PDO, leading to O2 increases in the upper water column. In contrast to the tropics, changes in subduction are the primary control on extratropical O2 variability. These hypotheses are tested by contrasting O2 anomalies with the heave‐induced component of variability calculated from potential density anomalies. Isopycnal heave is the leading control on O2 variability in the tropics, but heave alone cannot fully explain the amplitude of tropical O2 variability, likely indicating reinforcing changes from the biological O2 consumption. Midlatitude O2 variability indeed reflects ocean ventilation downstream of the subduction region where O2 anomalies are correlated with the depth of winter mixed layer. These mechanisms, synchronized with the PDO, yield a basin‐scale pattern of O2 variability that are comparable in magnitude to the projected rates of ocean deoxygenation in this century under "unchecked" emission scenario. Plain Language Summary: In the North Pacific, oxygen levels in the seawater show large‐scale patterns associated with the regional climate on the timescales of years to decades. We used a computational model of circulation and cycling of elements in the ocean to simulate these changes for the last approximately 70 years. Our aim is to better understand what causes these changes. First, the climate shifts can move large volume of seawater up and down in the ocean and redistribute dissolved oxygen due to the large‐scale water movement. Second, the climate shifts can alter the rate at which oxygen‐rich surface waters can mix into the subsurface ocean. We found that both mechanisms are important, but they occur in different regions; the first mechanism is particularly important in the tropics, and the second mechanism dominates in the subtropics. We further found that the climate‐driven changes in the biological processes tend to reinforce the physically driven oxygen changes of the tropics. These insights can help better understand and interpret existing and future observations of oxygen changes. Key Points: Two hypotheses are proposed for upper ocean oxygen variability that is synchronized with the Pacific Decadal OscillationTropical variability is primarily controlled by the heave of isopycnal surfaces, while the subtropics are controlled by the ventilationHistoric observations and a numerical model suggest additional, amplifying mechanisms that enhance tropical oxygen variability [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We explore centennial changes in tropical Pacific oxygen (O2) using numerical models to illustrate the dominant patterns and mechanisms under centennial climate change. Future projections from state‐of‐the‐art Earth System Models exhibit significant model to model differences, but decreased solubility and weakened ventilation together deplete thermocline O2 in middle to high latitudes. In contrast, the tropical thermocline O2 undergoes much smaller changes or even a slight increase. A suite of sensitivity experiments using a coarse resolution ocean circulation and biogeochemistry model show that ocean warming is the leading cause of global deoxygenation in the thermocline across all latitudes with secondary contributions from changes in hydrological cycles and wind stress modulating regional changes in O2. The small O2 changes in the tropical Pacific thermocline reflect near‐complete compensation between the solubility decrease due to warming and reduction in apparent oxygen utilization (AOU). We further quantified the changes in AOU due to contributions from changes in water mass age and biological remineralization from the sensitivity experiments. The two effects almost equally contribute to the reduction of AOU in the tropical Pacific thermocline (43% for physical circulations and 57% for biology). Our results suggest that better understanding of water mass changes in the tropical oceans is key to improving projections and reducing the uncertainties of future O2 changes. Plain Language Summary: Global warming in the next hundred years could lead to a large amount of oxygen loss from the ocean. This could impact not only the marine ecosystem but also fisheries. We use model simulations to investigate how long‐term climate change, such as changes in sea surface temperature, precipitation, and winds, under the anthropogenic transient could impact oceanic oxygen loss in the next hundred years. The ocean loses oxygen in most of the regions but tropical oceans could actually gain oxygen regionally. We investigate what causes these unique oxygen changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The counterintuitive oxygen changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean are likely due to, by an almost equal amount of effects, changes in water mass supply due to changes in circulations and changes in biological activity, that is, consumption of oxygen through respiration. Tropical oceans are sensitive to oxygen loss because of its impact on marine ecosystems. Our study could provide a better understanding of future oxygen loss in the ocean. Key Points: We performed sensitivity experiments to quantify the impacts of different surface climatic forcing on the centennial oxygen trendsDecrease of AOU in the tropical oceans are caused predominantly by ocean warming, with small effects from hydrological and wind forcingChanges in ocean circulation and biological oxygen consumption almost equally contribute to the long‐term decrease in tropical Pacific AOU [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The transport of dissolved oxygen (O2) from the surface ocean into the interior is a critical process sustaining aerobic life in mesopelagic ecosystems, but its rates and sensitivity to climate variations are poorly understood. Using a circulation model constrained to historical variability by assimilation of observations, the study shows that the North Pacific thermocline effectively takes up O2 primarily by expanding the area through which O2-rich mixed layer water is detrained into the thermocline. The outcrop area during the critical winter season varies in concert with the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). When the central North Pacific Ocean is in a cold phase, the winter outcrop window for the central mode water class (CMW; a neutral density range of γ = 25.6-26.6) expands southward, allowing more O2-rich surface water to enter the ocean's interior. An increase in volume flux of water to the CMW density class is partly compensated by a reduced supply to the shallower densities of subtropical mode water ( γ = 24.0-25.5). The thermocline has become better oxygenated since the 1980s partly because of strong O2 uptake. Positive O2 anomalies appear first near the outcrop and subsequently downstream in the subtropical gyre. In contrast to the O2 variations within the ventilated thermocline, observed O2 in intermediate water (density range of γ = 26.7-27.2) shows a declining trend over the past half century, a trend not explained by the open ocean water mass formation rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Warming of the oceans and consequent loss of dissolved oxygen (O2) will alter marine ecosystems, but a mechanistic framework to predict the impact of multiple stressors on viable habitat is lacking. Here, we integrate physiological, climatic, and biogeographic data to calibrate and then map a key metabolic index--the ratio of O2 supply to resting metabolic O2 demand--across geographic ranges of several marine ectotherms. These species differ in thermal and hypoxic tolerances, but their contemporary distributions are all bounded at the equatorward edge by a minimum metabolic index of ~2 to 5, indicative of a critical energetic requirement for organismal activity. The combined effects of warming and O2 loss this century are projected to reduce the upper ocean's metabolic index by ~20% globally and by ~50% in northern high-latitude regions, forcing poleward and vertical contraction of metabolically viable habitats and species ranges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evolutionary history and physiology mediate species responses to climate change. Tropical species that do not naturally experience high temperature variability have a narrow thermal tolerance compared to similar taxa at temperate latitudes and could therefore be most vulnerable to warming. However, the thermal adaptation of a species may also be influenced by spatial temperature variations over its geographical range. Spatial climate gradients, especially from topography, may also broaden thermal tolerance and therefore act to buffer warming impacts. Here we show that for low-seasonality environments, high spatial heterogeneity in temperature correlates significantly with greater warming tolerance in insects globally. Based on this relationship, we find that climate change projections of direct physiological impacts on insect fitness highlight the vulnerability of tropical lowland areas to future warming. Thus, in addition to seasonality, spatial heterogeneity may play a critical role in thermal adaptation and climate change impacts particularly in the tropics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

New observations of oxygen variability in the North Pacific Ocean are reported on the basis of comparison of the U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability and Carbon (CLIVARICO[sub2]) Repeat Hydrography sections conducted along 30°N (2004) and 152°W (2006) with the earlier World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) data and other cruises along these sections. The largest changes in apparent oxygen utilization (AOU) continue to occur, as found in earlier North Pacific repeat section analyses, within the thermocline on σ[subθ] = 26.6 kg m[sup-3], which is the densest isopycnal to outcrop in the open North Pacific in climatological data. In the northeastern North Pacific along 152°W, where a total of five cruises (1980, 1984, 1991, 1997, and 2006) spanning a period of 26 years are available, the AOU changes correspond to an overall increase in AOU on σ[subθ] = 26.6 kg m[sup-3] from the 1980s/early 1990s to 2006. However, from 1997 to 2006 a decrease in AOU is observed within the boundary region between the subtropical and subpolar gyres at 40°-45°N. Along the center axis of the subtropical gyre at 30°N, where two cruises are available (1994 and 2004), AOU has also substantially increased on = 26.6 kg m[sup-3] from 1994 to 2004 in the eastern part of the section. The repeat section data along 1 52°W and 30°N are consistent with a pattern of decadal-scale ventilation anomalies that originate in the northwestern Pacific, possibly through variability (including cessation) of the σ[subθ] = 26.6 kg m[sup-3] outcrop, travel eastward along the subtropical-subpolar gyre boundary, and enter the northern portion of the subtropical gyre along the way. For the 1 52°W AOU data within the gyre boundary region (40°-45°N), good agreement exists with the close-by time series data from Ocean Station P (50°N, 145°W) where a bidecadal cycle in AOU has been observed. In contrast, a sensible correlation with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation could not be found. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the article, the authors discuss how frigate birds (Fregata minor) can fly for long hours continuously for as long as 48 days without landing on ground or sea. Based on the study by H. Weimerskirch and colleagues, the birds ride the strong updrafts beneath or inside cumulus clouds and forage around the windless zone called doldrums to achieve the feat. Also explained is how trade winds help the birds fly, as well as the possible effects of climate change on the birds' flight.

Difficulty in characterizing the relationship between climatic variability and climate change vulnerability arises when we consider the multiple scales at which this variation occurs, be it temporal (from minute to annual) or spatial (from centimetres to kilometres). We studied populations of a single widely distributed butterfly species, Chlosyne lacinia, to examine the physiological, morphological, thermoregulatory and biophysical underpinnings of adaptation to tropical and temperate climates. Microclimatic and morphological data along with a biophysical model documented the importance of solar radiation in predicting butterfly body temperature. We also integrated the biophysics with a physiologically based insect fitness model to quantify the influence of solar radiation, morphology and behaviour on warming impact projections. While warming is projected to have some detrimental impacts on tropical ectotherms, fitness impacts in this study are not as negative as models that assume body and air temperature equivalence would suggest. We additionally show that behavioural thermoregulation can diminish direct warming impacts, though indirect thermoregulatory consequences could further complicate predictions. With these results, at multiple spatial and temporal scales, we show the importance of biophysics and behaviour for studying biodiversity consequences of global climate change, and stress that tropical climate change impacts are likely to be context-dependent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Whether movement will enable organisms to alleviate thermal stress is central to the biodiversity implications of climate change. We use the temperature-dependence of ectotherm performance to investigate the fitness consequences of movement. Movement to an optimal location within a 50 km radius will only offset the fitness impacts of climate change by 2100 in 5 per cent of locations globally. Random movement carries an 87 per cent risk of further fitness detriment. Mountainous regions with high temperature seasonality (i.e. temperate areas) not only offer the greatest benefit from optimal movement but also the most severe fitness consequences if an organism moves to the wrong location. Doubling dispersal capacity would provide modest benefit exclusively to directed dispersers in topographically diverse areas. The benefits of movement for escaping climate change are particularly limited in the tropics, where fitness impacts will be most severe. The potential of movement to lessen climate change impacts may have been overestimated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The oceans' continental margins face strong and rapid change, forced by a combination of direct human activity, anthropogenic CO 2 -induced climate change, and natural variability. Stimulated by discussions in Goa, India at the IMBER IMBIZO III, we (1) provide an overview of the drivers of biogeochemical variation and change on margins, (2) compare temporal trends in hydrographic and biogeochemical data across different margins, (3) review ecosystem responses to these changes, (4) highlight the importance of margin time series for detecting and attributing change and (5) examine societal responses to changing margin biogeochemistry and ecosystems. We synthesize information over a wide range of margin settings in order to identify the commonalities and distinctions among continental margin ecosystems. Key drivers of biogeochemical variation include long-term climate cycles, CO 2 -induced warming, acidification, and deoxygenation, as well as sea level rise, eutrophication, hydrologic and water cycle alteration, changing land use, fishing, and species invasion. Ecosystem responses are complex and impact major margin services. These include primary production, fisheries production, nutrient cycling, shoreline protection, chemical buffering, and biodiversity. Despite regional differences, the societal consequences of these changes are unarguably large and mandate coherent actions to reduce, mitigate and adapt to multiple stressors on continental margins. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]