15 results on '"Donges, Jonathan F."'
Search Results
2. Negative Social Tipping Dynamics Resulting from and Reinforcing Earth System Destabilisation.
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Spaiser, Viktoria, Juhola, Sirkku, Constantino, Sara M., Guo, Weisi, Watson, Tabitha, Sillmann, Jana, Craparo, Alessandro, Basel, Ashleigh, Bruun, John T., Krishnamurthy, Krishna, Scheffran, Jürgen, Pinho, Patricia, Okpara, Uche T., Donges, Jonathan F., Bhowmik, Avit, Yasseri, Taha, Campos, Ricardo Safra de, Cumming, Graeme S., Chenet, Hugues, and Krampe, Florian
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SOCIAL dynamics ,CLIMATE change ,SOCIAL change ,SYSTEMIC risk (Finance) - Abstract
In recent years research on positive social tipping dynamics in response to the climate crisis has produced invaluable insights. In contrast, relatively little attention has been given to the potentially negative social dynamics that might arise due to an increasingly destabilised Earth system, and how they might in turn reinforce social destabilisation dynamics and/or impede positive social change. In this paper, we identify potential negative tipping elements linked to Earth System destabilisation and draw on related research to understand the drivers and likelihood of these negative tipping dynamics, their potential effects on human societies and the Earth system, and the potential for cascading interactions and contribution to systemic risks. This first attempt to provide a first explorative conceptualisation of negative social tipping dynamics is intended to motivate further research into an under-researched area that is nonetheless crucial for our ability to respond to the climate crisis and for ensuring that positive social tipping dynamics are not averted by negative ones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2023
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3. A global social activation model of enabling conditions for positive social tipping – the role of sea-level rise anticipation and climate change concern.
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Smith, E. Keith, Wiedermann, Marc, Donges, Jonathan F., Heitzig, Jobst, and Winkelmann, Ricarda
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ABSOLUTE sea level change ,CLIMATE change mitigation ,SOCIAL history ,CLIMATE change ,SEA level ,TIME perspective ,WESTERN countries - Abstract
Effective climate change mitigation necessitates swift societal transformations. Social tipping processes, where small triggers initiate qualitative systemic shifts, are potential key mechanisms instigating societal change. A necessary foundation for societal tipping processes is the creation of enabling conditions. Here we assess future sea-level rise estimates and social survey data within the framework of a social activation model to exemplify the enabling conditions for tipping processes. We find that in many countries, climate change concern is sufficient, the enabling conditions and opportunities for social activation already exist. Further, drawing upon the interrelation between climate change concern and anticipation of future sea level rise, we report three qualitative classes of tipping potential that are regionally clustered, with greatest potential for tipping in Western Pacific rim and East Asian countries. These findings propose a transformative pathway where climate change concern increases the social tipping potential, while extended anticipation time horizons can trigger the system towards an alternative trajectory of larger social activation for climate change mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2023
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4. Recurrent droughts increase risk of cascading tipping events by outpacing adaptive capacities in the Amazon rainforest
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Wunderling, Nico, Staal, Arie, Sakschewski, Boris, Hirota, Marina, Tuinenburg, Obbe A., Donges, Jonathan F., Barbosa, Henrique M. J., Winkelmann, Ricarda, Spatial Ecology and Global Change, Environmental Sciences, Spatial Ecology and Global Change, and Environmental Sciences
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Rainforest ,Multidisciplinary ,Amazon rainforest ,TOMBAMENTO (DOENÇA DE PLANTA) ,droughts ,Climate Change ,tipping cascades ,climate tipping elements ,General ,network dynamics ,Droughts ,Trees - Abstract
Tipping elements are nonlinear subsystems of the Earth system that have the potential to abruptly shift to another state if environmental change occurs close to a critical threshold with large consequences for human societies and ecosystems. Among these tipping elements may be the Amazon rainforest, which has been undergoing intensive anthropogenic activities and increasingly frequent droughts. Here, we assess how extreme deviations from climatological rainfall regimes may cause local forest collapse that cascades through the coupled forest–climate system. We develop a conceptual dynamic network model to isolate and uncover the role of atmospheric moisture recycling in such tipping cascades. We account for heterogeneity in critical thresholds of the forest caused by adaptation to local climatic conditions. Our results reveal that, despite this adaptation, a future climate characterized by permanent drought conditions could trigger a transition to an open canopy state particularly in the southern Amazon. The loss of atmospheric moisture recycling contributes to one-third of the tipping events. Thus, by exceeding local thresholds in forest adaptive capacity, local climate change impacts may propagate to other regions of the Amazon basin, causing a risk of forest shifts even in regions where critical thresholds have not been crossed locally.
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- 2022
5. Nonlinear detection of paleoclimate-variability transitions possibly related to human evolution
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Donges, Jonathan F., Donner, Reik V., Trauth, Martin H., Marwan, Norbert, Schellnhuber, Hans-Joachim, and Kurths, Jürgen
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- 2011
6. 10 New Insights in Climate Science 2021
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Matthews, H. Damon, Rogelj, Joeri, Redman, Aaron, Mengis, Nadine, Hebden, Sopie, Nolan, Rachael, Hepach, Helmke, Donges, Jonathan F., Martin, Maria A., Büchs, Milena, Edwards, Clea, Lorek, Sylvia, Green, Jessica F., Pihl, Erik, Fuss, Sabine, Gärtner, Juliana, Lotze, Heike, Bowen, Kathryn, Sioen, Giles B., Woodcock, James, Alcaraz Sedra, Olga, Bastos, Ana, Bauer, Nico, Bertram, Christoph, Blenckner, Thorsten, Brando, Paul M., Brodie Rudolph, Tanya, Dasgupta, Purnamita, Donkor, Felix K., Duan, Hongbo, Duarte, Carlos M., Engel, Anja, Gettelman, Andrew, Girardin, Cecile A. J., Golledge, Nicholas R., Grose, Michael R., Hashizume, Masahiro, Hirota, Marina, Kojima, Satoshi, Lele, Sharachchandra, McCauley, Darren, M'ebratu, Desta, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Reid, Colleen E., Saunois, Marielle, Spangenberg, Joachim H., Sterner, Thomas N. S., Stevens, Nicola, Thonicke, Kirsten, Tian, Hanqin, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Public Administration, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. Departament de Física, and Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. STH - Sostenibilitat, Tecnologia i Humanisme
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climate change ,earth system ,global environmental change ,global sustainability ,environmental governance ,sustainable development ,Climate change ,Canvis climàtics ,Desenvolupament humà i sostenible::Governabilitat mundial [Àrees temàtiques de la UPC] - Abstract
This is the fifth instalmentfrom the annual series10 New Insights in Climate Science, whichaims to synthesise and communicate the latest and most essential scientific findings on climate change. It is the result of a collaboration between Future Earth,Earth League and the World Climate Research Program (WCRP). Thisreport constitutes a climate science year-in-review for journalists, policy makers, and the general public. A peer-reviewed academic article published in parallel to this policy report, providesanin-depth explanationof the ten insights,as well as a complete account of the reviewing process. These are the 2021ten New Insights in Climate Science: Stabilizing at 1.5°C warming is still possible, but immediate and drastic global action is required. Rapid growth in methane and nitrous oxide emissions put us on track for 2.7°C warming Megafires – climate change forces fire extremes to reach new dimensions with extreme impacts Climate tipping elements incur high-impact risks Global climate action must be just Supporting household behaviour changes is a crucial but often overlooked opportunity for climate action Political challenges impede effectiveness of carbon pricing Nature-based solutions are critical for the pathway to Paris – but look at the fine print Building resilience of marine ecosystems is achievable by climate-adapted conservation and management, and global stewardship Costs of climate change mitigation can be justified by the multiple immediate benefits to the health of humans and nature
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- 2021
7. Caring for the future can turn tragedy into comedy for long-term collective action under risk of collapse.
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Barfuss, Wolfram, Donges, Jonathan F., Vasconcelos, Vítor V., Kurths, Jürgen, and Levin, Simon A.
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COLLECTIVE action , *COMEDY , *REGIME change , *CLIMATE change , *PUBLIC goods - Abstract
We will need collective action to avoid catastrophic climate change, and this will require valuing the long term as well as the short term. Shortsightedness and uncertainty have hindered progress in resolving this collective action problem and have been recognized as important barriers to cooperation among humans. Here, we propose a coupled social-ecological dilemma to investigate the interdependence of three well-identified components of this cooperation problem: 1) timescales of collapse and recovery in relation to time preferences regarding future outcomes, 2) the magnitude of the impact of collapse, and 3) the number of actors in the collective. We find that, under a sufficiently severe and time-distant collapse, how much the actors care for the future can transform the game from a tragedy of the commons into one of coordination, and even into a comedy of the commons in which cooperation dominates. Conversely, we also find conditions under which even strong concern for the future still does not transform the problem from tragedy to comedy. For a large number of participating actors, we find that the critical collapse impact, at which these game regime changes happen, converges to a fixed value of collapse impact per actor that is independent of the enhancement factor of the public good, which is usually regarded as the driver of the dilemma. Our results not only call for experimental testing but also help explain why polarization in beliefs about human-caused climate change can threaten global cooperation agreements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2020
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8. Social tipping dynamics for stabilizing Earth's climate by 2050.
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Otto, Ilona M., Donges, Jonathan F., Cremades, Roger, Bhowmik, Avit, Hewitt, Richard J., Lucht, Wolfgang, Rockström, Johan, Allerberger, Franziska, McCaffrey, Mark, Doe, Sylvanus S. P., Lenferna, Alex, Morán, Nerea, van Vuuren, Detlef P., and Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim
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GREENHOUSE gas mitigation , *SOCIAL dynamics , *CLIMATE change mitigation , *HUMAN settlements , *ENERGY storage - Abstract
Safely achieving the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement requires a worldwide transformation to carbon-neutral societies within the next 30 y. Accelerated technological progress and policy implementations are required to deliver emissions reductions at rates sufficiently fast to avoid crossing dangerous tipping points in the Earth's climate system. Here, we discuss and evaluate the potential of social tipping interventions (STIs) that can activate contagious processes of rapidly spreading technologies, behaviors, social norms, and structural reorganization within their functional domains that we refer to as social tipping elements (STEs). STEs are subdomains of the planetary socioeconomic system where the required disruptive change may take place and lead to a sufficiently fast reduction in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The results are based on online expert elicitation, a subsequent expert workshop, and a literature review. The STIs that could trigger the tipping of STE subsystems include 1) removing fossil-fuel subsidies and incentivizing decentralized energy generation (STE1, energy production and storage systems), 2) building carbon-neutral cities (STE2, human settlements), 3) divesting from assets linked to fossil fuels (STE3, financialmarkets), 4) revealing the moral implications of fossil fuels (STE4, norms and value systems), 5) strengthening climate education and engagement (STE5, education system), and 6) disclosing information on greenhouse gas emissions (STE6, information feedbacks). Our research reveals important areas of focus for larger-scale empirical and modeling efforts to better understand the potentials of harnessing social tipping dynamics for climate change mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2020
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9. Analytically tractable climate-carbon cycle feedbacks under 21st century anthropogenic forcing.
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Lade, Steven J., Donges, Jonathan F., Fetzer, Ingo, Anderies, John M., Beer, Christian, Cornell, Sarah E., Gasser, Thomas, Norberg, Jon, Richardson, Katherine, Rockström, Johan, and Steffen, Will
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CLIMATE change , *CARBON cycle , *GREENHOUSE gases & the environment - Abstract
Changes to climate-carbon cycle feedbacks may significantly affect the Earth system's response to greenhouse gas emissions. These feedbacks are usually analysed from numerical output of complex and arguably opaque Earth system models. Here, we construct a stylised global climate-carbon cycle model, test its output against comprehensive Earth system models, and investigate the strengths of its climate-carbon cycle feedbacks analytically. The analytical expressions we obtain aid understanding of carbon cycle feedbacks and the operation of the carbon cycle. Specific results include that different feedback formalisms measure fundamentally the same climate-carbon cycle processes; temperature dependence of the solubility pump, biological pump, and CO2 solubility all contribute approximately equally to the ocean climate-carbon feedback; and concentration-carbon feedbacks may be more sensitive to future climate change than climate-carbon feedbacks. Simple models such as that developed here also provide "workbenches" for simple but mechanistically based explorations of Earth system processes, such as interactions and feedbacks between the planetary boundaries, that are currently too uncertain to be included in comprehensive Earth system models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2018
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10. Analytically tractable climate-carbon cycle feedbacks under 21st century anthropogenic forcing.
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Lade, Steven J., Donges, Jonathan F., Fetzer, Ingo, Anderies, John M., Beer, Christian, Cornell, Sarah E., Gasser, Thomas, Norberg, Jon, Richardson, Katherine, Rockström, Johan, and Steffen, Will
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CARBON cycle , *EFFECT of human beings on climate change , *CLIMATE change - Abstract
Changes to climate-carbon cycle feedbacks may significantly affect the Earth System's response to greenhouse gas emissions. These feedbacks are usually analysed from numerical output of complex and arguably opaque Earth System Models (ESMs). Here, we construct a stylized global climate-carbon cycle model, test its output against complex ESMs, and investigate the strengths of its climate-carbon cycle feedbacks analytically. The analytical expressions we obtain aid understanding of carbon-cycle feedbacks and the operation of the carbon cycle. We use our results to analytically study the relative strengths of different climate-carbon cycle feedbacks and how they may change in the future, as well as to compare different feedback formalisms. Simple models such as that developed here also provide "workbenches" for simple but mechanistically based explorations of Earth system processes, such as interactions and feedbacks between the Planetary Boundaries, that are currently too uncertain to be included in complex ESMs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2017
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11. Impact of temperature and precipitation extremes on the flowering dates of four German wildlife shrub species.
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Siegmund, Jonatan F., Wiedermann, Marc, Donges, Jonathan F., and Donner, Reik V.
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SHRUBS ,ANGIOSPERMS ,PLANT species ,METEOROLOGICAL precipitation ,EFFECT of temperature on plants ,CLIMATE change - Abstract
Ongoing climate change is known to cause an increase in the frequency and amplitude of local temperature and precipitation extremes in many regions of the Earth. While gradual changes in the climatological conditions have already been shown to strongly influence plant flowering dates, the question arises if and how extremes specifically impact the timing of this important phenological phase. Studying this question calls for the application of statistical methods that are tailored to the specific properties of event time series. Here, we employ event coincidence analysis, a novel statistical tool that allows assessing whether or not two types of events exhibit similar sequences of occurrences in order to systematically quantify simultaneities between meteorological extremes and the timing of the flowering of four shrub species across Germany. Our study confirms previous findings of experimental studies by highlighting the impact of early spring temperatures on the flowering of the investigated plants. However, previous studies solely based on correlation analysis do not allow deriving explicit estimates of the strength of such interdependencies without further assumptions, a gap that is closed by our analysis. In addition to direct impacts of extremely warm and cold spring temperatures, our analysis reveals statistically significant indications of an influence of temperature extremes in the autumn preceding the flowering. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2016
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12. Armed-conflict risks enhanced by climate-related disasters in ethnically fractionalized countries.
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Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich, Donges, Jonathan F., Donner, Reik V., and Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim
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WAR , *NATURAL disasters , *CLIMATE change - Abstract
Social and political tensions keep on fueling armed conflicts around the world. Although each conflict is the result of an individual context-specific mixture of interconnected factors, ethnicity appears to play a prominent and almost ubiquitous role in many of them. This overall state of affairs is likely to be exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change and in particular climate-related natural disasters. Ethnic divides might serve as predetermined conflict lines in case of rapidly emerging societal tensions arising from disruptive events like natural disasters. Here, we hypothesize that climate-related disaster occurrence enhances armed-conflict outbreak risk in ethnically fractionalized countries. Using event coincidence analysis, we test this hypothesis based on data on armed-conflict outbreaks and climate-related natural disasters for the period 1980-2010. Globally, we find a coincidence rate of 9% regarding armed-conflict outbreak and disaster occurrence such as heat waves or droughts. Our analysis also reveals that, during the period in question, about 23% of conflict outbreaks in ethnically highly fractionalized countries robustly coincide with climatic calamities. Although we do not report evidence that climate-related disasters act as direct triggers of armed conflicts, the disruptive nature of these events seems to play out in ethnically fractionalized societies in a particularly tragic way. This observation has important implications for future security policies as several of the world'smost conflict-prone regions, including North and Central Africa as well as Central Asia, are both exceptionally vulnerable to anthropogenic climate change and characterized by deep ethnic divides. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2016
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13. Nonlinear time series analysis of palaeoclimate proxy records.
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Marwan, Norbert, Donges, Jonathan F., Donner, Reik V., and Eroglu, Deniz
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EARTH'S orbit , *NONLINEAR dynamical systems , *INFORMATION theory , *WALKER circulation , *SYSTEMS theory , *CLIMATE change , *TIME series analysis - Abstract
Identifying and characterising dynamical regime shifts, critical transitions or potential tipping points in palaeoclimate time series is relevant for improving the understanding of often highly nonlinear Earth system dynamics. Beyond linear changes in time series properties such as mean, variance, or trend, these nonlinear regime shifts can manifest as changes in signal predictability, regularity, complexity, or higher-order stochastic properties such as multi-stability. In recent years, several classes of methods have been put forward to study these critical transitions in time series data that are based on concepts from nonlinear dynamics, complex systems science, information theory, and stochastic analysis. These include approaches such as phase space-based recurrence plots and recurrence networks, visibility graphs, order pattern-based entropies, and stochastic modelling. Here, we review and compare in detail several prominent methods from these fields by applying them to the same set of marine palaeoclimate proxy records of African climate variations during the past 5 million years. Applying these methods, we observe notable nonlinear transitions in palaeoclimate dynamics in these marine proxy records and discuss them in the context of important climate events and regimes such as phases of intensified Walker circulation, marine isotope stage M2, the onset of northern hemisphere glaciation and the mid-Pleistocene transition. We find that the studied approaches complement each other by allowing us to point out distinct aspects of dynamical regime shifts in palaeoclimate time series. We also detect significant correlations of these nonlinear regime shift indicators with variations of Earth's orbit, suggesting the latter as potential triggers of nonlinear transitions in palaeoclimate. Overall, the presented study underlines the potentials of nonlinear time series analysis approaches to provide complementary information on dynamical regime shifts in palaeoclimate and their driving processes that cannot be revealed by linear statistics or eyeball inspection of the data alone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2021
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14. Multi-method evidence for when and how climate-related disasters contribute to armed conflict risk.
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Ide, Tobias, Brzoska, Michael, Donges, Jonathan F., and Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich
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EFFECT of human beings on climate change ,DISASTERS ,SOCIAL marginality ,ETHNIC groups ,CLIMATE change ,EVIDENCE - Abstract
• First integrated, multi-method study on climate-related disasters and conflict. • Disaster do not enhance conflict risks per se, but only in certain contexts. • Relevant context factors: large population, ethnic exclusion, low development. • Improved opportunity structures are the main explanatory mechanism. Climate-related disasters are among the most societally disruptive impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Their potential impact on the risk of armed conflict is heavily debated in the context of the security implications of climate change. Yet, evidence for such climate-conflict-disaster links remains limited and contested. One reason for this is that existing studies do not triangulate insights from different methods and pay little attention to relevant context factors and especially causal pathways. By combining statistical approaches with systematic evidence from QCA and qualitative case studies in an innovative multi-method research design, we show that climate-related disasters increase the risk of armed conflict onset. This link is highly context-dependent and we find that countries with large populations, political exclusion of ethnic groups, and a low level of human development are particularly vulnerable. For such countries, almost one third of all conflict onsets over the 1980-2016 period have been preceded by a disaster within 7 days. The robustness of the effect is reduced for longer time spans. Case study evidence points to improved opportunity structures for armed groups rather than aggravated grievances as the main mechanism connecting disasters and conflict onset. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2020
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15. Geometric detection of coupling directions by means of inter-system recurrence networks
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Feldhoff, Jan H., Donner, Reik V., Donges, Jonathan F., Marwan, Norbert, and Kurths, Jürgen
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CLIMATE change , *TIME series analysis , *SYNCHRONIZATION , *RECURSIVE sequences (Mathematics) , *GENERALIZATION , *OSCILLATIONS - Abstract
Abstract: We introduce a geometric method for identifying the coupling direction between two dynamical systems based on a bivariate extension of recurrence network analysis. Global characteristics of the resulting inter-system recurrence networks provide a correct discrimination for weakly coupled Rössler oscillators not yet displaying generalised synchronisation. Investigating two real-world palaeoclimate time series representing the variability of the Asian monsoon over the last 10,000 years, we observe indications for a considerable influence of the Indian summer monsoon on climate in Eastern China rather than vice versa. The proposed approach can be directly extended to studying coupled subsystems. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]
- Published
- 2012
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