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Impacts of global climate change on terrestrial ecosystems are imperfectly constrained by ecosystem models and direct observations. Pervasive ecosystem transformations occurred in response to warming and associated climatic changes during the last glacial-to-interglacial transition, which was comparable in magnitude to warming projected for the next century under high-emission scenarios. We reviewed 594 published paleoecological records to examine compositional and structural changes in terrestrial vegetation since the last glacial period and to project the magnitudes of ecosystem transformations under alternative future emission scenarios. Our results indicate that terrestrial ecosystems are highly sensitive to temperature change and suggest that, without major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere, terrestrial ecosystems worldwide are at risk of major transformation, with accompanying disruption of ecosystem services and impacts on biodiversity., (Copyright © 2018 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.)

Understanding how species and ecosystems respond to climate change has become a major focus of ecology and conservation biology. Modelling approaches provide important tools for making future projections, but current models of the climate-biosphere interface remain overly simplistic, undermining the credibility of projections. We identify five ways in which substantial advances could be made in the next few years: (i) improving the accessibility and efficiency of biodiversity monitoring data, (ii) quantifying the main determinants of the sensitivity of species to climate change, (iii) incorporating community dynamics into projections of biodiversity responses, (iv) accounting for the influence of evolutionary processes on the response of species to climate change, and (v) improving the biophysical rule sets that define functional groupings of species in global models., (Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

A detailed, well‐dated record of pollen and sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) for the period 15 000–9500 cal a bp describes changes at Lake Bolshoye Shchuchye in the Polar Ural Mountains, located far east of the classical Lateglacial sites in western Europe. Arctic tundra rapidly changed to lusher vegetation, possibly including both dwarf (Betula nana) and tree birch (B. pubescens), dated in our record to take place 14 565 cal a bp, coincident with the onset of the Bølling in western Europe; this was paralleled by increased summer temperatures. A striking feature is an early decline in Betula pollen and sedaDNA reads 300 years before the onset of the Younger Dryas (YD) in western Europe. Given the solid site chronology, this could indicate that the YD cooling started in Siberia and propagated westwards, or that the vegetation reacted to the inter‐Allerød cooling at 13 100 cal a bp and did not recover during the late Allerød. During the YD, increases in steppe taxa such as Artemisia and Chenopodiaceae suggest drier conditions. At the onset of the Holocene, the vegetation around the lake reacted fast to the warmer conditions, as seen in the increase of arboreal taxa, especially Betula, and a decrease in herbs such as Artemisia and Cyperaceae. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Palaeoecological data provide an essential long‐term perspective of ecological change and its drivers in oceanic islands. However, analysing the effects of multi‐scalar and potentially co‐occurring disturbances is particularly challenging in dry islands. Here, we aim to identify the ecological consequences of the integrated impacts of a regional drying trend, volcanic eruptions and human mass migrations in a spatially constrained environment—a small, dry oceanic island in Macaronesia. Location: Brava Island, Republic of Cabo Verde. Taxa: Terrestrial vegetation and fungi. Methods: We use palaeoecological analyses applied to a caldera soil profile that dates back to 9700 cal yr BP (calibrated years before the present). Analyses include pollen (vegetation history), non‐pollen palynomorphs (changes in fern and fungal communities), grain‐size distribution, loss‐on‐ignition and geochemistry (sedimentology and erosion regimes), microscopic tephra shards (volcanic ash deposition) and charcoal (fire regime). Results: A regional drying trend after c. 4000 cal yr BP caused increased erosion but had limited immediate impacts on highland grassland vegetation. The expansion of fern‐rich woody scrubland was contemporaneous with significant deposition of volcanic ash and erosion between 1800 and 650 cal yr BP. About 300 cal yr BP, exogenous plants expanded, grazing and fires increased, and there was a decrease of native vegetation cover. Main conclusions: Throughout the Holocene, highland vegetation in Brava was characterized by the presence of open landscapes dominated by herbaceous species (e.g. Poaceae, Forsskaolea), with some presence of woody native taxa (e.g. Ficus, Dodonaea). A regional drying trend was a driver of erosion since the Mid Holocene but did not have an immediate influence on highland vegetation. Tephra deposition is a possible driver of vegetation change. Inter‐island mass migration after volcanic events in Fogo Island c. 1680 CE potentially triggered land use change and intensification, causing a reduction of native vegetation in Brava. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reconstructing past vegetation and species diversity from arctic lake sediments can be challenging because of low pollen and plant macrofossil concentrations. Information may be enhanced by metabarcoding of sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA). We developed a Holocene record from Lake Skartjørna, Svalbard, using sedaDNA, plant macrofossils and sediment properties, and compared it with published records. All but two genera of vascular plants identified as macrofossils in this or a previous study were identified with sedaDNA. Six additional vascular taxa were found, plus two algal and 12 bryophyte taxa, by sedaDNA analysis, which also detected more species per sample than macrofossil analysis. A shift from Salix polaris-dominated vegetation, with Koenigia islandica, Ranunculaceae and the relatively thermophilic species Arabis alpina and Betula, to Dryas octopetala-dominated vegetation ~6600–5500 cal. BP suggests a transition from moist conditions 1–2°C warmer than today to colder/drier conditions. This coincides with a decrease in runoff, inferred from core lithology, and an independent record of declining lacustrine productivity. This mid-Holocene change in terrestrial vegetation is broadly coincident with changes in records from marine sediments off the west coast of Svalbard. Over the Holocene sedaDNA records little floristic change, and it clearly shows species persisted near the lake during time intervals when they are not detected as macrofossils. The flora has shown resilience in the presence of a changing climate, and, if future warming is limited to 2°C or less, we might expect only minor floristic changes in this region. However, the Holocene record provides no analogues for greater warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Effective mapping of water bodies at regional scales is a challenge with respect to the description and monitoring of hydrological, climatic, and landscape processes. In a region as sensitive to climate change as the Arctic, inaccurate representation of lake cover has probably led to underestimation of the role of lakes as landscape constituents and thus of their contribution to biochemical cycles. To estimate lake cover reliably (and perhaps also its change through time), the scientific community necessitates techniques for mapping water bodies using satellite sensors that include rich historical data sets and have sufficiently fine spatial resolution. Here we applied a density-slicing detection technique to 617 cloud-free Landsat images for the summer months 2006–2011. We developed a comprehensive database of Arctic lakes with a detection accuracy of 80% and examined spatial patterns of lake distribution in relation to landscape properties. We mapped about 3,500,000 lakes; these cover nearly 6% of the Arctic land surface (about 400,000 km2) and are typically small (<0.1 km2). Lake density and lake fraction analyses show that lakes are most common in lowland permafrost areas with tundra vegetation. The method described here can also be used to map and monitor lake cover at regional to hemispheric scales and to monitor changes in lake cover over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We describe the career of John Birks as a pioneering scientist who has, over a career spanning five decades, transformed palaeoecology from a largely descriptive to a rigorous quantitative science relevant to contemporary questions in ecology and environmental change. We review his influence on students and colleagues not only at Cambridge and Bergen Universities, his places of primary employment, but also on individuals and research groups in Europe and North America. We also introduce the collection of papers that we have assembled in his honour. The papers are written by his former students and close colleagues and span many of the areas of palaeoecology to which John himself has made major contributions. These include the relationship between ecology and palaeoecology, late-glacial and Holocene palaeoecology, ecological succession, climate change and vegetation history, the role of palaeoecological techniques in reconstructing and understanding the impact of human activity on terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems and numerical analysis of multivariate palaeoecological data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Contents [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Burial Lake in northwest Alaska records changes in water level and regional vegetation since ∼39,000calyr BP based on terrestrial macrofossil AMS radiocarbon dates. A sedimentary unconformity is dated between 34,800 and 23,200calyr BP. During all or some of this period there was a hiatus in deposition indicating a major drop in lake level and deflation of lacustrine sediments. MIS 3 vegetation was herb-shrub tundra; more xeric graminoid-herb tundra developed after 23,200calyr BP. The tundra gradually became more mesic after 17,000calyr BP. Expansions of Salix then Betula, at 15,000 and 14,000calyr BP, respectively, are coincident with a major rise in lake level marked by increasing fine-grained sediment and higher organic matter content. Several sites in the region display disrupted sedimentation and probable hiatuses during the last glacial maximum (LGM); together regional data indicate an arid interval prior to and during the LGM and continued low moisture levels until ∼15,000calyr BP. AMS 14C dates from Burial Lake are approximately synchronous with AMS 14C dates reported for the Betula expansion at nearby sites and sites across northern Alaska, but 1000–2000yr younger than bulk-sediment dates. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Physical and geochemical proxy analyses of sediment cores from Harding Lake in central Alaska are used to reconstruct paleoenvironmental change and millennial scale fluctuations in lake level for the last ∼31,000 years. We analyzed a composite 422 cm core from the lake depocenter (42.1 m water depth) and identified 4 distinct lithologic units based on variability in dry bulk density, organic matter, biogenic silica, carbon to nitrogen mass ratios (C/N), organic matter carbon isotopes (δ13C), pollen, and elemental abundances via scanning X-ray fluorescence, with age control provided by 16 Accelerator Mass Spectrometry radiocarbon dates and 210Pb dating. In addition, we analyzed a transect of cores from 7.1 m, 10.75 m, 15.91 m, and 38.05 m water depths to identify lake level fluctuations and to characterize sediment compositional changes as a function of water depth. Organic matter content and magnetic susceptibility values in surface sediments from all transect cores show a strong correlation with water depth. Interpretation of four lithologic units with well-dated contacts produced a record of water-depth variations that is consistent with independent climate records from eastern Beringia. Basal coarse-grained sediments (quartz pebble diamicton) were deposited prior to 30,700 calendar years before present (yr BP), possibly from fluvial reworking or deflation during a period of severe aridity. Unit 1 sediments were deposited between 30,700 and 15,700 yr BP and are characterized by a low organic matter content, a high magnetic susceptibility, and low biogenic silica concentrations resulting from very low lake levels, low terrestrial and in-lake productivity and a high flux of clastic sediment. An abrupt increase in organic matter and biogenic silica concentration marks the transition into Unit 2 sediments, which were deposited between 15,700 and 9,400 yr BP when lake levels were higher and variable (relative to Unit 1). The transition to full interglacial conditions at 9,400 yr BP marks the beginning of Unit 3. Here an abrupt increase in the sedimentation rate, organic matter and biogenic silica concentration occurs (along with a corresponding decrease to low magnetic susceptibility). These high values persist until 8,700 yr BP, signifying a rapid rise to higher lake levels (in comparison to Units 1 and 2). Unit 4 sediments were deposited between 8,700 yr BP to 2010 AD and generally contain high concentrations of organic matter and biogenic silica with low magnetic susceptibility, suggesting that lake levels were relatively high and stable during the middle to late Holocene. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]