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Thermal mass, a pivotal element in a building's performance, functions as an indoor thermal buffer. While literature underscores its advantages, the enduring impact of thermal mass amid climate change remains uncertain. This study methodically assesses thermal mass effects in 21 Iranian cities across contemporary and future climates, juxtaposing heavyweight and lightweight constructions. The EPSAP algorithm, a generative building design method, created a dataset of two-story single-family houses. Cooling and heating demands were evaluated in EnergyPlus, accounting for current and future system design efficiencies. Future climates were simulated using EC-Earth3 model estimations for the SSP5-8.5 scenario in 2050 and 2080 timeframes. The findings reveal that the energy efficiency advantage of heavyweight over lightweight buildings will diminish by up to 0.60 kW·h·m−2 in 2050 (40 % less than the present-day climate difference between constructions) and 0.93 kW·h·m−2 in 2080 (63 %) for cities in central and southern regions. The performance differences between constructions will sometimes be null, making thermal mass negligible. Conversely, only three cities in Northern Iran exhibit an opposing trend for mid to very-high thermal transmittances. Regarding building geometry, heavyweight construction correlates strongly with indexes related to building compactness, while lightweight construction aligns more with glazing-related indexes. However, as climates warm or we move towards warmer regions, discernible differences between lightweight and heavyweight constructions vanish for both shape- and glazing-related indexes. In conclusion, although the use of thermal mass will be less effective, building design professionals will have greater latitude for innovative construction and design solutions. • Thermal mass will have a lower energy benefit as global warming settles in Iran. • Adequate envelope thermal transmittances enhance thermal mass energy benefits. • Heavyweight construction has a higher correlation with shape-related indexes. • Lightweight construction has a higher correlation with glazing-related indexes. • In the future, no difference is found between constructions' geometry indexes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Even though global warming is expected to raise the energy demand in office buildings, most energy analyses and design studies neither consider its impacts nor adaptive energy solutions. This study evaluates the effects of future climate on the energy demand of an office building in Portugal and proposes mitigation measures to improve its energy performance and environmental sustainability. The study simulates the energy demand of the building in 2055 and 2090 under different future scenarios using data from the latest climate model experiments, considering systems, envelopes, and operations interventions, and assesses the potential of photovoltaic panels to meet the energy demand. The results show that the interventions may reduce electric energy consumption between 16 % and 25 %, and the photovoltaic panels can meet 23 %–59 % of the total demand, depending on the scenario and the year. However, storage technology and equipment efficiency must evolve favorably to reach low energy. The findings reveal if a building designed and optimized for the current climate will remain optimal in the future and demonstrate the benefits of applying cleaner production and sustainable consumption principles to the office building sector. The study provides valuable insights for practitioners and policymakers. [Display omitted] • The impact of future scenarios on an office building's energy demand is assessed. • Alternative measures are analyzed to improve energy performance in 2055 and 2090. • The electric demand may be reduced by up to 16 %–25 % in the future. • The impact of the climate scenario may be significant. • PV panels may reduce the purchased electric energy by around 23–59 % in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mathematical morphing of historical weather data to match the projected climate change scenario is a commonly used method to generate future weather files for building energy simulation. It is known for preserving the local weather characteristics, which is particularly important when designing or analyzing high-performance buildings. Researchers may use one of the available morphing tools. Unfortunately, current tools use future climate data from outdated climate models with lesser accuracy, coarser spatial resolution, and fewer climate scenarios than recent models. In addition, these tools are closed, preventing others from adding corrections, updating, and developing them further. This paper presents an open-source, cross-platform, and state-of-the-art morphing tool that generates future hourly weather data for the whole building performance simulation. The novel tool is applied to a real-case office building in Coimbra, Portugal. In the SSP5-8.5 scenario, simulations show thermal energy needs and electricity use will reduce by 60% in 2050 and 77% in 2080 for heating and will increase by 67% in 2050 and 121% in 2080 for cooling. As a result, the building's global electricity consumption will increase by 24% in 2050 and by 53% in 2080. The study is extended to other locations in Europe, concluding that the total HVAC energy needs will remain constant or even decrease in heating-dominated climates, mainly due to the significant drop in the heating demand in the future. • A new future weather morphing research tool is presented. • It uses the latest data from the CMIP6 experiments (EC-Earth3). • The open-source code promotes research transparency and scientific discovery. • The tool overcomes issues and implementation closedness from other tools. • An application to a real-case office building shows the impact of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Ideal U -values for 2050 climate projection in the Mediterranean region are determined. • Current well insulated buildings are not prone to overheating in the future. • In the future, ideal U -values are similar or even lower than current ones. • Casablanca is the only location presenting an overheating risk. • The increase of cooling demand will overcome the heating demand decrease. One of the effects of climate change is global warming, which will increase cooling demand in buildings. However, scientific literature does not show consensus on the risk of highly insulated buildings being prone to overheating. This paper presents a statistical comparison of two synthetic datasets for current and future climates in sixteen Mediterranean locations. The weather data for the 2050 climate projection was generated by 'morphing' current weather data. The buildings were created using a generative design method to produce random geometries and random U -values for the envelope elements. Energy performance was evaluated using dynamic simulation. In addition to the expected general increase in cooling demand (up to 137 %) and a smaller reduction in heating demand (up to 63 %), the results demonstrate that the ideal U -values used in the current climate in almost all of the locations will not cause overheating. In several cases, the decrease of the U -values is even recommended for Podgorica, Valencia, Tunis, Malaga, Larnaca, and Alexandria, as the reduction of heating demand compensates the increase of cooling demand. Casablanca was the only location showing an increase in the ideal U -values, thus presenting risk of overheating if using current ideal U -values. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The climate will become hotter, and buildings will perform differently as outdoor conditions evolve. If the lowest energy demand is desired, it is crucial to determine the ideal thermophysical properties of the envelope over the buildings' life span. However, the scientific literature is still scarce in providing a compelling answer. Therefore, this study (i) determines ideal thermal transmittance values (U -values) for present-day and future climates, (ii) determines to what extent the thermophysical properties will need to change to remain ideal, (iii) identifies different trends of U -values over time, (iv) establishes a relationship between outdoor air temperatures, cooling and heating setpoints, and ideal U -values, and (v) proposes a set of design strategies according to each trend. The EPSAP generative design method was used to create a large dataset of residential buildings with random geometries and U -values to evaluate their energy demand for heating and cooling in EnergyPlus. The thermal performance of each building was evaluated for 30 locations in Brazil for the current period and two future timeframes (2050 and 2080). The Future Weather Generator tool was used to morph today's typical meteorological weather to match the EC-Earth3 data for the SSP5–8.5 scenario. Although climate change has a similar relative impact, its consequences differ over time in each location. The ideal U -values have different trends in different regions: (a) remaining unchanged in the future, (b) changing from being the highest possible to the lowest of the analyzed range in 2050 or 2080, and (c) being mid-range values in the present and with similar or lower values in the future climate. The impact on the thermal loads of maintaining the present-day ideal U -values also varies significantly in the future timeframes, from being nil to representing an increase reaching 30 % in 2050 (∆ 2.94 MW·h ± 0.06 MW·h) and 57 % in 2080 (∆ 6.05 MW·h ± 0.09 MW·h). Therefore, building design professionals need to use different strategies according to each region and consider how climate evolves during the lifetime of the building. • Ideal U -values in present-day and future climates in Brazil are determined. • The trend of the ideal U -values varies according to each region. • A relation between U -values and outdoor temperatures and HVAC setpoints was found. • A fast procedure is presented to determine the trend of the ideal U -values over time. • For each trend, building design strategies are proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]