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1. Climate change impact and adaptation for wheat protein

Author

Mohamed Jabloun, Pierre Martre, Garry O'Leary, Dominique Ripoche, Bruno Basso, Pramod K. Aggarwal, Daniel Wallach, Matthew P. Reynolds, Marijn van der Velde, John R. Porter, Heidi Webber, Enli Wang, Frank Ewert, Joost Wolf, Christian Klein, Belay T. Kassie, Christian Biernath, Margarita Garcia-Vila, M. Ali Babar, Pierre Stratonovitch, Yujing Gao, Glenn J. Fitzgerald, Davide Cammarano, Bing Liu, Peter J. Thorburn, Fulu Tao, Andrew J. Challinor, Reimund P. Rötter, Christine Girousse, Zhigan Zhao, Christoph Müller, Ann-Kristin Koehler, Jørgen E. Olesen, Elias Fereres, Iwan Supit, Andrea Maiorano, Marco Bindi, Sebastian Gayler, Kurt Christian Kersebaum, Giacomo De Sanctis, Alex C. Ruane, Rosella Motzo, Juraj Balkovic, Manuel Montesino San Martin, Roberto Ferrise, Mikhail A. Semenov, Claudio O. Stöckle, Soora Naresh Kumar, Gerrit Hoogenboom, Benjamin Dumont, Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei, Mukhtar Ahmed, Senthold Asseng, Thilo Streck, Yan Zhu, R. Cesar Izaurralde, Katharina Waha, Ahmed M. S. Kheir, Taru Palosuo, Liujun Xiao, Sara Minoli, Eckart Priesack, Heidi Horan, Curtis D. Jones, Francesco Giunta, Zhao Zhang, Claas Nendel, International Food Policy Research Institute (US), CGIAR (France), European Commission, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (France), National Natural Science Foundation of China, Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (Germany), Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (UK), Innovation Fund Denmark, China Scholarship Council, Ministero delle Politiche Agricole Alimentari e Forestali, Academy of Finland, Finnish Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Germany), Department of Agriculture and Water Resources (Australia), University of Melbourne, Grains Research and Development Corporation (Australia), National Institute of Food and Agriculture (US), German Research Foundation, Gorgan University, Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering [Gainesville] (UF|ABE), Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences [Gainesville] (UF|IFAS), University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF)-University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF), Écophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress environnementaux (LEPSE), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), European Food Safety Authority = Autorité européenne de sécurité des aliments, Tropical Plant Production and Agricultural Systems Modelling (TROPAGS), Georg-August-University = Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, Centre for Biodiversity and Sustainable Land-use [University of Göttingen] (CBL), Department of Economic Drt and Resources, Grains Innovation Park, Agriculture Victoria Research, Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources, Faculty of Veterinary and Agricultural Science [Melbourne], Génétique Diversité et Ecophysiologie des Céréales (GDEC), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Clermont Auvergne [2017-2020] (UCA [2017-2020]), Department of Agricultural Sciences, University of Naples Federico II = Università degli studi di Napoli Federico II, World Food Crops Breeding, Department of Agronomy, IFAS, University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF), International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR] (CGIAR), Soils, Water and Environment Research Institute, Agricultural Research Center (ARC), Agriculture and Food, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre [Inde] (CIMMYT), Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR] (CGIAR)-Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR] (CGIAR), Biological Systems Engineering, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Department of Agronomy, University of El-Tarf, Ecosystem Services and Management Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Department of Soil Science, Faculty of Natural Sciences, Comenius University in Bratislava, W. K. Kellogg Biological Station (KBS), Michigan State University [East Lansing], Michigan State University System-Michigan State University System, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences [Ann Arbor], University of Michigan [Ann Arbor], University of Michigan System-University of Michigan System, Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology, Research Center for Environmental Health, Helmholtz Zentrum München = German Research Center for Environmental Health, Department of Agri‐food Production and Environmental Sciences (DISPAA), Università degli Studi di Firenze = University of Florence (UniFI), The James Hutton Institute, Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science [Leeds] (ICAS), School of Earth and Environment [Leeds] (SEE), University of Leeds-University of Leeds, Collaborative Research Program from CGIAR and Future Earth on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), International Center for Tropical Agriculture, GMO Unit, European Food Safety Authority, Department Terra & AgroBioChem, Gembloux Agro‐Bio Tech, Université de Liège, Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation [Bonn] (INRES), Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn, Department of Crop Sciences, Instituto de Agricultura Sostenible - Institute for Sustainable Agriculture (IAS CSIC), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [Madrid] (CSIC), Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, University of Hohenheim, Food Systems Institute [Gainesville] (UF|IFAS), Department of Geographical Sciences, College Park, University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, Texas A and M AgriLife Research, Texas A&M University System, Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University [Aarhus], Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung = Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology [Neuherberg], German Research Center for Environmental Health - Helmholtz Center München (GmbH), National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Key Laboratory for Crop System Analysis and Decision Making, Ministry of Agriculture, Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Nanjing Agricutural University, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Department of Plant and Environmental Sciences [Copenhagen], Faculty of Science [Copenhagen], University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet (UCPH)-University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet (UCPH), Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture [New Delhi], Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI), Natural Resources Institute Finland (LUKE), Fonctionnement et conduite des systèmes de culture tropicaux et méditerranéens (UMR SYSTEM), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier (CIHEAM-IAMM), Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes (CIHEAM)-Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes (CIHEAM)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), University of Lincoln, Agroclim (AGROCLIM), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Rothamsted Research, Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC), Water & Food and Water Systems & Global Change Group, Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Institute of geographical sciences and natural resources research [CAS] (IGSNRR), Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] (CAS), Joint Research Centre (IPTS), Commission Européenne, AGroécologie, Innovations, teRritoires (AGIR), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT), CSIRO Agriculture and Food (CSIRO), Plant Production Systems, State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University (BNU), Department of Agronomy and Biotechnology, China Agricultural University (CAU), National Research Foundation for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of China, Grant/Award Number: 20120097110042, International Food Policy, European Project: 267196,EC:FP7:PEOPLE,FP7-PEOPLE-2010-COFUND,AGREENSKILLS(2012), Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro), Georg-August-University [Göttingen], Centre of Biodiversity and Sustainable Land Use (CBL), University of Göttingen - Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, University of Naples Federico II, Helmholtz-Zentrum München (HZM), Universtiy of Florence, University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet (KU)-University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet (KU), Natural Resources Institute Finland, Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro), Wageningen University, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées, Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida [Gainesville], Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, University of Goettingen, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand 2 (UBP), Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, BISA‐CIMMYT, Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR), Comenius University [Bratislava], Helmholtz Zentrum München, Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation INRES, University of Bonn, IAS‐CSIC, Universidad de Cordoba, Institute for Sustainable Food Systems, Texas A&M AgriLife Research and Extension Center, Aarhus University, Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier (CIHEAM-IAMM), Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes (CIHEAM)-Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes (CIHEAM)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), UE Agroclim (UE AGROCLIM), UMR : AGroécologie, Innovations, TeRritoires, Ecole Nationale Supérieure Agronomique de Toulouse, Wageningen University and Research Center (WUR), Beijing Normal University, and China Agricultural University

Subjects
[SDV.SA]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences, 0106 biological sciences, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Water en Voedsel, 01 natural sciences, grain protein, adaptation au milieu, climate change adaptation, climate change impact, food security, wheat, Co2 concentration, adaptation to the environment, Triticum, General Environmental Science, 2. Zero hunger, changement climatique, Global and Planetary Change, Food security, Ecology, Temperature, food and beverages, Adaptation, Physiological, Droughts, Nitrogen, Climate Change, Climate change, 010603 evolutionary biology, blé, Crop production, Food Quality, Grain quality, [SDV.BV]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Vegetal Biology, Environmental Chemistry, Grain Proteins, global change, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, WIMEK, Water and Food, Global change, Carbon Dioxide, Models, Theoretical, 15. Life on land, Agronomy, 13. Climate action, Grain yield, Environmental science, Water Systems and Global Change, Protein concentration
Abstract

Wheat grain protein concentration is an important determinant of wheat quality for human nutrition that is often overlooked in efforts to improve crop production. We tested and applied a 32‐multi‐model ensemble to simulate global wheat yield and quality in a changing climate. Potential benefits of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration by 2050 on global wheat grain and protein yield are likely to be negated by impacts from rising temperature and changes in rainfall, but with considerable disparities between regions. Grain and protein yields are expected to be lower and more variable in most low‐rainfall regions, with nitrogen availability limiting growth stimulus from elevated CO2. Introducing genotypes adapted to warmer temperatures (and also considering changes in CO2 and rainfall) could boost global wheat yield by 7% and protein yield by 2%, but grain protein concentration would be reduced by −1.1 percentage points, representing a relative change of −8.6%. Climate change adaptations that benefit grain yield are not always positive for grain quality, putting additional pressure on global wheat production., B.L received support from the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) through the Global Futures and Strategic Foresight project, the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) and the CGIAR Research Program on Wheat. A.M. received support from the EU Marie Curie FP7 COFUND People Programme, through an AgreenSkills fellowship under grant agreement no. PCOFUND‐GA‐2010‐267196. PM, A.M., D.R., and D.W. acknowledge support from the FACCE JPI MACSUR project (031A103B) through the metaprogram Adaptation of Agriculture and Forests to Climate Change (AAFCC) of the French National Institute for Agricultural Research (INRA). L.X. and Y.Z. were supported by the National High‐Tech Research and Development Program of China (2013AA100404), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (31271616), the National Research Foundation for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of China (20120097110042), and the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (PAPD). F.T. and Z.Z. were supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41571088, 41571493 and 31561143003). R.R. received support from the German Ministry for Research and Education (BMBF) through project SPACES‐LLL. Rothamsted Research receives support from the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) Designing Future Wheat programme [BB/P016855/1]. M.J. and J.E.O. were supported by Innovation Fund Denmark through the MACSUR project. L.X. and Y.G. acknowledge support from the China Scholarship Council. M.B and R.F. were funded by JPI FACCE MACSUR2 through the Italian Ministry for Agricultural, Food and Forestry Policies and thank A. Soltani from Gorgan Univ. of Agric. Sci. & Natur. Resour. for his support. R.P.R., T.P., and F.T. received financial support from the FACCE MACSUR project funded through the Finnish Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MMM) and from the Academy of Finland through the projects NORFASYS (decision nos. 268277 and 292944) and PLUMES (decision nos. 277403 and 292836). K.C.K. and C.N. received support from the German Ministry for Research and Education (BMBF) within the FACCE JPI MACSUR project. S.M. and C.M. acknowledge financial support from the MACMIT project (01LN1317A) funded through BMBF. G.J.O. and G.J.F. acknowledge support from the Victorian Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources, the Australian Department of Agriculture and Water Resources, The University of Melbourne and the Grains Research Development Corporation, Australia. P.K.A.'s work was implemented as part of the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), which is carried out with support from the CGIAR Trust Fund and through bilateral funding agreements. For details please visit https://ccafs.cgiar.org/donors. The views expressed in this document cannot be taken to reflect the official opinions of these organizations.. B.B. received financial support from USDA NIFA‐Water Cap Award 2015‐68007‐23133. F.E. acknowledges support from the FACCE JPI MACSUR project through the German Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (2815ERA01J) and from the German Science Foundation (project EW 119/5‐1).

Published
2019
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2. Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre‐industrial warming

Author

Mónica Espadafor, Bing Liu, Frank Ewert, Mukhtar Ahmed, Liujun Xiao, Thilo Streck, Senthold Asseng, Soora Naresh Kumar, Gerrit Hoogenboom, John R. Porter, Sara Minoli, Margarita Garcia-Vila, Joost Wolf, Juraj Balkovic, Alex C. Ruane, Giacomo De Sanctis, Pierre Martre, Roberto C. Izaurralde, Marijn van der Velde, Dominique Ripoche, Roberto Ferrise, Davide Cammarano, Fulu Tao, Bruno Basso, Christoph Müller, Heidi Webber, Yujing Gao, Andrea Maiorano, Christian Klein, Ann-Kristin Koehler, Andrew J. Challinor, Reimund P. Rötter, Garry O'Leary, Manuel Montesino San Martin, Eckart Priesack, Peter J. Thorburn, Heidi Horan, Kurt Christian Kersebaum, Iwan Supit, Zhigan Zhao, Taru Palosuo, Belay T. Kassie, Christian Biernath, Pramod K. Aggarwal, Katharina Waha, Sebastian Gayler, Daniel Wallach, Yan Zhu, Marco Bindi, Zhao Zhang, Claas Nendel, Enli Wang, Curtis D. Jones, Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei, Mikhail A. Semenov, Claudio O. Stöckle, Benjamin Dumont, National Science Foundation (US), National Natural Science Foundation of China, International Food Policy Research Institute (US), CGIAR (France), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (France), Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Germany), Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (UK), China Scholarship Council, Department of Agriculture and Water Resources (Australia), Ministero delle Politiche Agricole Alimentari e Forestali, Gorgan University, Victoria State Government, National Institute of Food and Agriculture (US), Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (Germany), German Research Foundation, Academy of Finland, LabEx Agro, Natural Resources Institute Finland, National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Key Laboratory for Crop System Analysis and Decision Making, Ministry of Agriculture, Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Nanjing Agricutural University, Écophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress environnementaux (LEPSE), Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut für Nutzpflanzenwissenschaften und Ressourcenschutz (INRES), Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn, Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung = Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Fonctionnement et conduite des systèmes de culture tropicaux et méditerranéens (UMR SYSTEM), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier (CIHEAM-IAMM), Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes (CIHEAM)-Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes (CIHEAM)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro), University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet (KU), Lincoln University, University of Leeds, CGIAR-ESSP Program on Climate Change,Agriculture and Food Security, International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Agriculture and Food, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre [Inde] (CIMMYT), International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR] (CGIAR)-Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR] (CGIAR), Biological Systems Engineering, Washington State University (WSU), Department of Agronomy, University of El-Tarf, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Ecosystem Services and Management Program, affiliation inconnue, Comenius University in Bratislava, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences [East Lansing], Michigan State University [East Lansing], Michigan State University System-Michigan State University System, W. K. Kellogg Biological Station (KBS), Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology (BIOP), German Research Center for Environmental Health - Helmholtz Center München (GmbH), Department of Agrifood Production and Environmental Sciences (DISPAA), Università degli Studi di Firenze = University of Florence [Firenze] (UNIFI), The James Hutton Institute, GMO Unit, European Food Safety Authority = Autorité européenne de sécurité des aliments, Université de Liège, University of Córdoba, Department of Crop Sciences, Georg-August-University [Göttingen], Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, University of Hohenheim, Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering [Gainesville] (UF|ABE), Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences [Gainesville] (UF|IFAS), University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF)-University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF), Food Systems Institute [Gainesville] (UF|IFAS), Department of Geographical Sciences, College Park, University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, Texas A and M AgriLife Research, Texas A&M University System, European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture (CESCRA), Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI), Agriculture Victoria Research, Institute for Natural Resources, Agroclim (AGROCLIM), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Tropical Plant Production and Agricultural Systems Modelling (TROPAGS), Centre of Biodiversity and Sustainable Land Use (CBL), University of Göttingen - Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, Rothamsted Research, Wageningen University and Research Centre (WUR), Institute of geographical sciences and natural resources research, Chinese Academy of Sciences [Changchun Branch] (CAS), European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] (JRC), AGroécologie, Innovations, teRritoires (AGIR), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées, Plant Production Systems, Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University (BNU), Department of Agronomy and Biotechnology, China Agricultural University (CAU), Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), and Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC), Grant/Award Number: BB/, P016855/1

Subjects
[SDV.SA]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences, 0106 biological sciences, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Food prices, Water en Voedsel, Climate change, Atmospheric sciences, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, Model ensemble, Extreme low yields, model ensemble, 1.5°C warming, Temperate climate, [SDV.BV]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Vegetal Biology, Environmental Chemistry, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General Environmental Science, 2. Zero hunger, Global and Planetary Change, WIMEK, Water and Food, Food security, Ecology, business.industry, wheat production, Crop yield, Global warming, food security, 15. Life on land, PE&RC, climate change, Plant Production Systems, 13. Climate action, Agriculture, Plantaardige Productiesystemen, extreme low yields, 8. Economic growth, Environmental science, Wheat production, Water Systems and Global Change, business, Cropping
Abstract

Efforts to limit global warming to below 2°C in relation to the pre‐industrial level are under way, in accordance with the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, most impact research on agriculture to date has focused on impacts of warming >2°C on mean crop yields, and many previous studies did not focus sufficiently on extreme events and yield interannual variability. Here, with the latest climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project, we evaluated the impacts of the 2015 Paris Agreement range of global warming (1.5 and 2.0°C warming above the pre‐industrial period) on global wheat production and local yield variability. A multi‐crop and multi‐climate model ensemble over a global network of sites developed by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for Wheat was used to represent major rainfed and irrigated wheat cropping systems. Results show that projected global wheat production will change by −2.3% to 7.0% under the 1.5°C scenario and −2.4% to 10.5% under the 2.0°C scenario, compared to a baseline of 1980–2010, when considering changes in local temperature, rainfall, and global atmospheric CO2 concentration, but no changes in management or wheat cultivars. The projected impact on wheat production varies spatially; a larger increase is projected for temperate high rainfall regions than for moderate hot low rainfall and irrigated regions. Grain yields in warmer regions are more likely to be reduced than in cooler regions. Despite mostly positive impacts on global average grain yields, the frequency of extremely low yields (bottom 5 percentile of baseline distribution) and yield inter‐annual variability will increase under both warming scenarios for some of the hot growing locations, including locations from the second largest global wheat producer—India, which supplies more than 14% of global wheat. The projected global impact of warming, We thank the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for support. B.L., L.X., and Y.Z. were supported by the National Science Foundation for Distinguished Young Scholars (31725020), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (31801260, 51711520319, and 31611130182), the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu province (BK20180523), the 111 Project (B16026), and the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (PAPD). S.A. and B.K. received support from the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) through the Global Futures and Strategic Foresight project, the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), and the CGIAR Research Program on Wheat. P.M, D.R., and D.W. acknowledge support from the FACCE JPI MACSUR project (031A103B) through the metaprogram Adaptation of Agriculture and Forests to Climate Change (AAFCC) of the French National Institute for Agricultural Research (INRA). F.T. and Z.Z. were supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41571088, 41571493, 31761143006, and 31561143003). R.R. acknowledges support from the German Federal Ministry for Research and Education (BMBF) through project “Limpopo Living Landscapes” project (SPACES program; grant number 01LL1304A). Rothamsted Research receives grant‐aided support from the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) Designing Future Wheat project [BB/P016855/1]. L.X. and Y.G. acknowledge support from the China Scholarship Council. M.B and R.F. were funded by JPI FACCE MACSUR2 through the Italian Ministry for Agricultural, Food and Forestry Policies and thank A. Soltani from Gorgan Univ. of Agric. Sci. & Natur. Resour for his support. K.C.K. and C.N. received support from the German Ministry for Research and Education (BMBF) within the FACCE JPI MACSUR project. S.M. and C.M. acknowledge financial support from the MACMIT project (01LN1317A) funded through BMBF. G.J.O. acknowledges support from the Victorian Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources, the Australian Department of Agriculture and Water Resources. P.K.A. was supported by the multiple donors contributing to the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). B.B. received financial support from USDA NIFA‐Water Cap Award 2015‐68007‐23133. F.E. acknowledges support from the FACCE JPI MACSUR project through the German Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (2815ERA01J) and from the German Science Foundation (project EW 119/5‐1). J.R.P. acknowledges the support of the Labex Agro (Agropolis no. 1501‐003). La. T.P. and F.T. received financial support from the Academy of Finland through the project PLUMES (decision nos. 277403 and 292836) and from Natural Resources Institute Finland through the project ClimSmartAgri.

Published
2019
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3. The uncertainty of crop yield projections is reduced by improved temperature response functions

Author

Alex C. Ruane, Peter J. Thorburn, Mikhail A. Semenov, Joost Wolf, Claudio O. Stöckle, Pramod K. Aggarwal, Gerard W. Wall, Margarita Garcia-Vila, Matthew P. Reynolds, Eckart Priesack, Jørgen E. Olesen, Enli Wang, Bruce A. Kimball, Jordi Doltra, Iurii Shcherbak, Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei, Jeffrey W. White, Leilei Liu, L. A. Hunt, Senthold Asseng, Frank Ewert, Yan Zhu, Fulu Tao, Christoph Müller, Daniel Wallach, Christian Biernath, Davide Cammarano, Mohamed Jabloun, Zhigan Zhao, Michael J. Ottman, Pierre Martre, Sebastian Gayler, Garry O'Leary, Zhimin Wang, Jakarat Anothai, Elias Fereres, Claas Nendel, Bruno Basso, Thilo Streck, Curtis D. Jones, Andrea Maiorano, Phillip D. Alderman, Andrew J. Challinor, Reimund P. Rötter, Taru Palosuo, Iwan Supit, Katharina Waha, Giacomo De Sanctis, Kurt Christian Kersebaum, Soora Naresh Kumar, Gerrit Hoogenboom, Dominique Ripoche, Pierre Stratonovitch, Ann-Kristin Koehler, Roberto C. Izaurralde, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (Australia), Chinese Academy of Sciences, China Scholarship Council, Ministry of Education of the People's Republic of China, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (France), European Commission, International Food Policy Research Institute (US), CGIAR (France), Department of Agriculture (US), Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Germany), Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit, Danish Council for Strategic Research, Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (Germany), Finnish Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, National Natural Science Foundation of China, Helmholtz Association, Grains Research and Development Corporation (Australia), Texas AgriLife Research, Texas A&M University, National Institute of Food and Agriculture (US), CSIRO, Écophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress environnementaux (LEPSE), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), College of Agronomy and Biotechnology, Southwest University, Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation, Division of Plant Nutrition-University of Bonn, Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis, Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung = Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Department of Crop Sciences, University of Goettingen, Centre of Biodiversity and Sustainable Land Use (CBL), United States Department of Agriculture - Agricultural Research Service, The School of Plant Sciences, University of Arizona, Global Wheat Program, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), Washington State University (WSU), Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences and W.K. Kellogg Biological Station, Michigan State University [East Lansing], Michigan State University System-Michigan State University System, Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology (BIOP), German Research Center for Environmental Health - Helmholtz Center München (GmbH), Agricultural and Biological Engineering Department, Purdue University [West Lafayette], Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science [Leeds] (ICAS), School of Earth and Environment [Leeds] (SEE), University of Leeds-University of Leeds, GMO Unit, European Food Safety Authority = Autorité européenne de sécurité des aliments, Cantabrian Agricultural Research and Training Centre, Dep. Agronomia, University of Córdoba [Córdoba], Spanish National Research Council (CSIC), Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, University of Hohenheim, Department of Plant Agriculture, University of Guelph, Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, Texas A&M AgriLife Research and Extension Center, Texas A&M University System, Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University [Aarhus], National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Nanjing Agricutural University, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture (CESCRA), Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI), Department of Economic Development, Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources (DEDJTR), Natural Resources Institute Finland, Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation (INRES), Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn, UE Agroclim (UE AGROCLIM), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Computational and Systems Biology Department, Rothamsted Research, Biological Systems Engineering, University of Wisconsin-Madison, PPS and WSG &CALM, Wageningen University and Research Center (WUR), Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] (CAS), Agriculture and Food, Universidad de La Rioja (UR), UMR : AGroécologie, Innovations, TeRritoires, Ecole Nationale Supérieure Agronomique de Toulouse, China Agricultural University, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro), China Agricultural University (CAU), Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation [Bonn], Georg-August-University [Göttingen], Arid-Land Agricultural Research Center, Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR] (CGIAR)-Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR] (CGIAR), CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering [Gainesville] (UF|ABE), Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences [Gainesville] (UF|IFAS), University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF)-University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF), University of Leeds, European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), Catabrian Agricultural Research and Training Center (CIFA), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [Madrid] (CSIC), AgWeatherNet Program, Texas A and M AgriLife Research, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Landscape and Water Sciences, Natural Resources Institute Finland (LUKE), Agroclim (AGROCLIM), Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS), AGroécologie, Innovations, teRritoires (AGIR), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées, European Project: 267196,EC:FP7:PEOPLE,FP7-PEOPLE-2010-COFUND,AGREENSKILLS(2012), Écophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress environnementaux ( LEPSE ), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ) -Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques ( Montpellier SupAgro ) -Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier ( Montpellier SupAgro ), Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center ( CIMMYT ), CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security ( CCAFS ), Washington State University ( WSU ), Michigan State University, Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology ( BIOP ), Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, European Food Safety Authority, Spanish National Research Council ( CSIC ), Texas A and M University ( TAMU ), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research ( PIK ), Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture ( CESCRA ), Indian Agricultural Research Institute ( IARI ), Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources ( DEDJTR ), University of Bonn (Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms), UE Agroclim ( UE AGROCLIM ), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ( GISS ), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center ( GSFC ), University of Wisconsin-Madison [Madison], Wageningen University and Research Center ( WUR ), Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] ( CAS ), Universidad de La Rioja ( UR ), University of Bonn-Division of Plant Nutrition, Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro), USDA-ARS : Agricultural Research Service, Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR]-Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR], Natural resources institute Finland, Georg-August-University = Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, Universidad de Córdoba = University of Córdoba [Córdoba], Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC)-Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC), and Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)

Subjects
Crops, Agricultural, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio], Yield (finance), Water en Voedsel, Growing season, Climate change, klim, Plant Science, Agricultural engineering, Models, Biological, 01 natural sciences, [SHS]Humanities and Social Sciences, Crop, Life Science, Computer Simulation, Productivity, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, 2. Zero hunger, [ SDE.BE ] Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, WIMEK, Water and Food, Food security, business.industry, Crop yield, Temperature, Agriculture, 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences, 15. Life on land, Climate Resilience, Agronomy, Klimaatbestendigheid, 13. Climate action, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, 040103 agronomy & agriculture, 0401 agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, Environmental science, Water Systems and Global Change, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, business
Abstract

Increasing the accuracy of crop productivity estimates is a key element in planning adaptation strategies to ensure global food security under climate change. Process-based crop models are effective means to project climate impact on crop yield, but have large uncertainty in yield simulations. Here, we show that variations in the mathematical functions currently used to simulate temperature responses of physiological processes in 29 wheat models account for >50% of uncertainty in simulated grain yields for mean growing season temperatures from 14 °C to 33 °C. We derived a set of new temperature response functions that when substituted in four wheat models reduced the error in grain yield simulations across seven global sites with different temperature regimes by 19% to 50% (42% average). We anticipate the improved temperature responses to be a key step to improve modelling of crops under rising temperature and climate change, leading to higher skill of crop yield projections., E.W. acknowledges support from the CSIRO project ‘Enhanced modelling of genotype by environment interactions’ and the project ‘Advancing crop yield while reducing the use of water and nitrogen’ jointly funded by CSIRO and the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). Z.Z. received a scholarship from the China Scholarship Council through the CSIRO and the Chinese Ministry of Education PhD Research Program. P.M., A.M. and D.R. acknowledge support from the FACCE JPI MACSUR project (031A103B) through the metaprogram Adaptation of Agriculture and Forests to Climate Change (AAFCC) of the French National Institute for Agricultural Research (INRA). A.M. received the support of the EU in the framework of the Marie-Curie FP7 COFUND People Programme, through the award of an AgreenSkills fellowship under grant agreement No. PCOFUND-GA-2010-267196. S.A. and D.C. acknowledge support provided by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), the CGIAR Research Program on Wheat and the Wheat Initiative. C.S. was funded through USDA National Institute for Food and Agriculture award 32011-68002-30191. C.M. received financial support from the KULUNDA project (01LL0905 L) and the FACCE MACSUR project (031A103B) funded through the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). F.E. received support from the FACCE MACSUR project (031A103B) funded through the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (2812ERA115) and E.E.R. was funded through the German Federal Ministry of Economic Cooperation and Development (Project: PARI). M.J. and J.E.O. were funded through the FACCE MACSUR project by the Danish Strategic Research Council. K.C.K. and C.N. were funded by the FACCE MACSUR project through the German Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (BMEL). F.T., T.P. and R.P.R. received financial support from the FACCE MACSUR project funded through the Finnish Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MMM); F.T. was also funded through the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41071030). C.B. was funded through the Helmholtz project ‘REKLIM-Regional Climate Change: Causes and Effects’ Topic 9: ‘Climate Change and Air Quality’. M.P.R. and PD.A. received funding from the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security (CCAFS). G.O'L. was funded through the Australian Grains Research and Development Corporation and the Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources Victoria, Australia. R.C.I. was funded by Texas AgriLife Research, Texas A&M University. B.B. was funded by USDA-NIFA Grant No: 2015-68007-23133.

Published
2017
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4. Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production

Author

Margarita Garcia-Vila, L. A. Hunt, Jørgen E. Olesen, P. V. V. Prasad, Pierre Martre, Katharina Waha, Curtis D. Jones, Pramod K. Aggarwal, Yan Zhu, Phillip D. Alderman, Christian Biernath, Fulu Tao, Bruno Basso, Davide Cammarano, Christoph Müller, Eckart Priesack, Taru Palosuo, Mohamed Jabloun, Thilo Streck, Zhigan Zhao, Jordi Doltra, Roberto C. Izaurralde, Alex C. Ruane, Andrew J. Challinor, Michael J. Ottman, Jeffrey W. White, Garry O'Leary, Reimund P. Rötter, David B. Lobell, Sebastian Gayler, Gerard W. Wall, G. De Sanctis, Matthew P. Reynolds, Senthold Asseng, Iurii Shcherbak, Peter J. Thorburn, Enli Wang, Bruce A. Kimball, Daniel Wallach, Mikhail A. Semenov, Claudio O. Stöckle, Claas Nendel, Jakarat Anothai, Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei, Pierre Stratonovitch, Ann-Kristin Koehler, Joost Wolf, Kurt Christian Kersebaum, Gerrit Hoogenboom, Frank Ewert, Iwan Supit, S. Naresh Kumar, Elias Fereres, NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Columbia University, University of Florida, Department of Agriculture (US), Oregon State University, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center, University of Agriculture Faisalabad, Shahid Beheshti University, ARVALIS, International Food Policy Research Institute (US), Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Germany), German Research Foundation, Danish Council for Strategic Research, Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (Germany), Finnish Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, National Natural Science Foundation of China, CGIAR (France), Grains Research and Development Corporation (Australia), Department of Environment and Primary Industries (Australia), Texas AgriLife Research, Texas A&M University, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (Australia), Chinese Academy of Sciences, Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering [Gainesville] (UF|ABE), Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences [Gainesville] (UF|IFAS), University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF)-University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF), Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation [Bonn] (INRES), Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn, Génétique Diversité et Ecophysiologie des Céréales (GDEC), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand 2 (UBP), Plant Production Research, Agrifood Research Finland, Stanford University, Agricultural Research Service / US Arid Land Agricultural Research Center, United States Department of Agriculture, The School of Plant Sciences, University of Arizona, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR] (CGIAR), Department of Agronomy, Purdue University [West Lafayette], CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), Washington State University (WSU), Department of geological sciences, Michigan State University [East Lansing], Michigan State University System-Michigan State University System, W. K. Kellogg Biological Station (KBS), Institute of Soil Ecology, Helmholtz-Zentrum München (HZM), CGIAR-ESSP Program on Climate Change,Agriculture and Food Security, International Center for Tropical Agriculture, University of Leeds, Agroclim (AGROCLIM), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Catabrian Agricultural Research and Training Center (CIFA), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC), Universidad de Córdoba [Cordoba], WESS-Water and Earth System Science Competence Cluster, Eberhard Karls Universität Tübingen = Eberhard Karls University of Tuebingen, Biological Systems Engineering, Department of Plant Agriculture, University of Guelph, Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, Texas A&M University System, Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University [Aarhus], Institute of Landscape System Analysis, Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung = Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture (CESCRA), Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI), Institute of landscape systems analysis, Department of Environment and Primary Industries, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Computational and Systems Biology Department, Rothamsted Research, Department of Geological Sciences, University of Michigan [Ann Arbor], University of Michigan System-University of Michigan System, Computational and Systems Biology, John Innes Centre [Norwich], Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, University of Hohenheim, Plant Production Systems and Earth System Science, Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Institute of geographical sciences and natural resources research, Chinese Academy of Sciences [Changchun Branch] (CAS), Agriculture Flagship, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), AGroécologie, Innovations, teRritoires (AGIR), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées, Department of Agronomy and Biotechnology, China Agricultural University (CAU), Nanjing Agricultural University, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), USDA National Institute for Food and Agriculture [32011-68002-30191], KULUNDA [01LL0905L], FACCE MACSUR project through the German FederalMinistry of Education and Research (BMBF) [031A103B, 2812ERA115], German Science Foundation [EW119/5-1], FACCEMACSUR project by the Danish Strategic Research Council, FACCE MACSUR project through the German Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (BMEL), FACCE MACSUR project funded through the Finnish Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, National Natural Science Foundation of China [41071030], Helmholtz project 'REKLIM-Regional Climate Change: Causes and Effects' Topic 9: 'Climate Change and Air Quality', CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security (CCAFS), Australian Grains Research and Development Corporation, Department of Environment and Primary Industries Victoria, Australia, Texas AgriLife Research, Texas AM University, CSIRO, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Helmholtz Zentrum München = German Research Center for Environmental Health, Universidad de Córdoba = University of Córdoba [Córdoba], Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC)-Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC), Institute of geographical sciences and natural resources research [CAS] (IGSNRR), Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] (CAS), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT), and Nanjing Agricultural University (NAU)

Subjects
0106 biological sciences, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio], Yield (finance), Growing season, Climate change, Environmental Science (miscellaneous), Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, [SHS]Humanities and Social Sciences, Crop, [SDV.BV]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Vegetal Biology, Production (economics), 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, 2. Zero hunger, business.industry, Global warming, Simulation modeling, 15. Life on land, Agronomy, 13. Climate action, Agriculture, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, Environmental science, business, Social Sciences (miscellaneous), 010606 plant biology & botany
Abstract

Asseng, S. et al., Crop models are essential tools for assessing the threat of climate change to local and global food production1. Present models used to predict wheat grain yield are highly uncertain when simulating how crops respond to temperature2. Here we systematically tested 30 different wheat crop models of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project against field experiments in which growing season mean temperatures ranged from 15 °C to 32 °C, including experiments with artificial heating. Many models simulated yields well, but were less accurate at higher temperatures. The model ensemble median was consistently more accurate in simulating the crop temperature response than any single model, regardless of the input information used. Extrapolating the model ensemble temperature response indicates that warming is already slowing yield gains at a majority of wheat-growing locations. Global wheat production is estimated to fall by 6% for each °C of further temperature increase and become more variable over space and time., We thank the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and its leaders C. Rosenzweig from NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University (USA), J. Jones from University of Florida (USA), J. Hatfield from United States Department of Agriculture (USA) and J. Antle from Oregon State University (USA) for support. We also thank M. Lopez from CIMMYT (Turkey), M. Usman Bashir from University of Agriculture, Faisalabad (Pakistan), S. Soufizadeh from Shahid Beheshti University (Iran), and J. Lorgeou and J-C. Deswarte from ARVALIS—Institut du Végétal (France) for assistance with selecting key locations and quantifying regional crop cultivars, anthesis and maturity dates and R. Raymundo for assistance with GIS. S.A. and D.C. received financial support from the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). C.S. was funded through USDA National Institute for Food and Agriculture award 32011-68002-30191. C.M. received financial support from the KULUNDA project (01LL0905L) and the FACCE MACSUR project (031A103B) funded through the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). F.E. received support from the FACCE MACSUR project (031A103B) funded through the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (2812ERA115) and E.E.R. was funded through the German Science Foundation (project EW 119/5-1). M.J. and J.E.O. were funded through the FACCE MACSUR project by the Danish Strategic Research Council. K.C.K. and C.N. were funded by the FACCE MACSUR project through the German Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (BMEL). F.T., T.P. and R.P.R. received financial support from FACCE MACSUR project funded through the Finnish Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MMM); F.T. was also funded through National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41071030). C.B. was funded through the Helmholtz project ‘REKLIM—Regional Climate Change: Causes and Effects’ Topic 9: ‘Climate Change and Air Quality’. M.P.R. and P.D.A. received funding from the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security (CCAFS). G.O’L. was funded through the Australian Grains Research and Development Corporation and the Department of Environment and Primary Industries Victoria, Australia. R.C.I. was funded by Texas AgriLife Research, Texas A&M University. E.W. and Z.Z. were funded by CSIRO and the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) through the research project ‘Advancing crop yield while reducing the use of water and nitrogen’ and by the CSIRO-MoE PhD Research Program.

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