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In this study, we synthesize terrestrial and marine proxy records, spanning the past 620 ky, to decipher pan-African climate variability and its drivers and potential linkages to hominin evolution. We find a tight correlation between moisture availability across Africa to El Niño Southern Ocean oscillation (ENSO) variability, a manifestation of the Walker Circulation, that was most likely driven by changes in Earth's eccentricity. Our results demonstrate that low-latitude insolation was a prominent driver of pan-African climate change during the Middle to Late Pleistocene. We argue that these low-latitude climate processes governed the dispersion and evolution of vegetation as well as mammals in eastern and western Africa by increasing resource-rich and stable ecotonal settings thought to have been important to early modern humans., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interest.

Eastern Africa has experienced strong climatic changes since the last deglaciation (15 000 years ago). The driving mechanisms and teleconnections of these spatially complex climate variations are yet not fully understood. Although previous studies on lake systems have enhanced our knowledge of Holocene precipitation variation in eastern Africa, relatively few studies have reconstructed the terrestrial temperature history of eastern Africa from lake archives. Here, we present (i) a new branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraether (brGDGT) temperature calibration that includes Bale Mountains surface sediments and (ii) a quantitative record of mean annual air temperature (MAT) over the past 12 ka cal BP using brGDGTs in a sediment core collected from Garba Guracha (3950 m a.s.l.) in the Bale Mountains. After adding Bale Mountains surface sediment (n=11) data (Baxter et al., 2019) to the existing East African lake dataset, additional variation in 6-methyl brGDGTs was observed, which necessitated modifying the MBT 5ME′ calibration (MBT denotes methylation of branched tetraethers) by adding 6-methyl brGDGT IIIa ′ (resulting in the MBT Bale Mountains index, r2=0.93 , p<0.05). Comparing the MBT 5ME′ and the new MBT Bale Mountains index, our high-altitude Garba Guracha temperature record shows that warming occurred shortly after the Holocene onset when the temperature increased by more than 3.0 ∘C in less than 600 years. The highest temperatures prevailed between 9 and 6 kacalBP , followed by a temperature decrease until 1.4 kacalBP. The reconstructed temperature history is linked to supraregional climatic changes associated with insolation forcing and the African Humid Period (AHP), as well as with local anomalies associated with catchment deglaciation and hydrology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding eastern African paleoclimate is critical for contextualizing early human evolution, adaptation, and dispersal, yet Pleistocene climate of this region and its governing mechanisms remain poorly understood due to the lack of long, orbitally-resolved, terrestrial paleoclimate records. Here we present leaf wax hydrogen isotope records of rainfall from paleolake sediment cores from key time windows that resolve long-term trends, variations, and high-latitude effects on tropical African precipitation. Eastern African rainfall was dominantly controlled by variations in low-latitude summer insolation during most of the early and middle Pleistocene, with little evidence that glacial–interglacial cycles impacted rainfall until the late Pleistocene. We observe the influence of high-latitude-driven climate processes emerging from the last interglacial (Marine Isotope Stage 5) to the present, an interval when glacial–interglacial cycles were strong and insolation forcing was weak. Our results demonstrate a variable response of eastern African rainfall to low-latitude insolation forcing and high-latitude-driven climate change, likely related to the relative strengths of these forcings through time and a threshold in monsoon sensitivity. We observe little difference in mean rainfall between the early, middle, and late Pleistocene, which suggests that orbitally-driven climate variations likely played a more significant role than gradual change in the relationship between early humans and their environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We used a change point analysis on a late Pleistocene–Holocene lake-sediment record from the Chew Bahir basin in the southern Ethiopian Rift to determine the amplitude and duration of past climate transitions. The most dramatic changes occurred over 240 yr (from ~15,700 to 15,460 yr) during the onset of the African Humid Period (AHP), and over 990 yr (from ~4875 to 3885 yr) during its protracted termination. The AHP was interrupted by a distinct dry period coinciding with the high-latitude Younger Dryas stadial, which had an abrupt onset (less than ~100 yr) at ~13,260 yr and lasted until ~11,730 yr. Wet-dry-wet transitions prior to the AHP may reflect the high-latitude Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles, as indicated by cross-correlation of the potassium record with the NorthGRIP ice core record between ~45–20 ka. These findings may contribute to the debates regarding the amplitude, and duration and mechanisms of past climate transitions, and their possible influence on the development of early modern human cultures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The numerous dispersal events that have occurred during the prehistory of hominin lineages are the subject of longstanding and increasingly active debate in evolutionary anthropology. As well as research into the dating and geographic extent of such dispersals, there is an increasing focus on the factors that may have been responsible for dispersal. The growing body of detailed regional palaeoclimatic data is invaluable in demonstrating the often close relationship between changes in prehistoric environments and the movements of hominin populations. The scenarios constructed from such data are often overly simplistic, however, concentrating on the dynamics of cyclical contraction and expansion during severe and ameliorated conditions respectively. This contribution proposes a two-stage hypothesis of hominin dispersal in which populations (1) accumulate high levels of climatic tolerance during highly variable climatic phases, and (2) express such heightened tolerance via dispersal in subsequent low-variability phases. Likely dispersal phases are thus proposed to occur during stable climatic phases that immediately follow phases of high climatic variability. Employing high resolution palaeoclimatic data from Lake Tana, Ethiopia, the hypothesis is examined in relation to the early dispersal of Homo sapiens out of East Africa and into the Levant. A dispersal phase is identified in the Lake Tana record between c. 112,550 and c. 96,975 years ago, a date bracket that accords well with the dating evidence for H. sapiens occupation at the sites of Qafzeh and Skhul. Results are discussed in relation to the complex pattern of H. sapiens dispersal out of East Africa, with particular attention paid to the implications of recent genetic chronologies for the origin of non-African modern humans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We describe the career of John Birks as a pioneering scientist who has, over a career spanning five decades, transformed palaeoecology from a largely descriptive to a rigorous quantitative science relevant to contemporary questions in ecology and environmental change. We review his influence on students and colleagues not only at Cambridge and Bergen Universities, his places of primary employment, but also on individuals and research groups in Europe and North America. We also introduce the collection of papers that we have assembled in his honour. The papers are written by his former students and close colleagues and span many of the areas of palaeoecology to which John himself has made major contributions. These include the relationship between ecology and palaeoecology, late-glacial and Holocene palaeoecology, ecological succession, climate change and vegetation history, the role of palaeoecological techniques in reconstructing and understanding the impact of human activity on terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems and numerical analysis of multivariate palaeoecological data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Lake Ashenge, a closed-basin lake near the northernmost penetration of summer monsoon rains, is well placed to provide a continental record of past changes in the strength of the African monsoon system. Diatom and oxygen isotope analyses of the lake sediments confirm that the overall trend of climate change during the past 17,000 years was driven by precessional forcing, punctuated by abrupt shifts that may be linked to changes in Atlantic surface temperatures. The lake level was low from at least 17.2 to 16.2 cal kyr BP, and then rose between 16.2 and 15.2 cal kyr BP, which may represent a temporary reactivation of the monsoonal circulation system following its reduced activity during the Last Glacial Maximum. The lake was significantly low between 13.6 and ~11.8 cal kyr BP coinciding approximately with the Younger Dryas, but beginning 900 years before its recognised onset in the Greenland ice-core record. A major sedimentary hiatus, covering the interval ~11.8 to 7.6 cal kyr BP, was probably caused by an early Holocene lowstand, the precise timing of which cannot be determined because pre-lowstand sediments were eroded from the core site. The lake filled to its overflow from 7.6 cal kyr BP until 5.6 cal kyr BP, when the sediments record an abrupt lake response to the regional transition to arid conditions that mark the end of African Humid Period. Evidence is also presented for climate changes which may have been associated with the rise and fall of Aksum, Ethiopia''s first great civilisation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The oxygen and carbon isotope composition of sedimentary carbonates formed in Lake Hayq, a closed-basin lake in northern Ethiopia, suggests marked variation in the balance between precipitation and evaporation during the last 2000 years. Diatom stratigraphy shows that the lake remained deep enough to support planktonic taxa, and was never saline. The record suggests that rainfall was higher than that of the twentieth century during most of this time, especially during two short intervals centred on AD 700 and AD 1300. Climate was drier only around AD 800, and from AD 1750–1900. Similar, but slightly moister climate than today, with high interdecadal variability, prevailed from AD 800 to AD 1200, equivalent to the European ‘Mediaeval Warm Period’. A period of high effective precipitation followed, from AD 1200 to AD 1700, during the ‘Little Ice Age’. Pollen evidence suggests that increased forest cover from AD 1400 to AD 1750 was a response to higher rainfall; forest cover may have increased evaporative loss from the catchment, contributing to a subsequent trend of increasing lakewater δ18O values. The record shows similarities in the timing and direction of changes in proxy-climatic records from Lake Naivasha (Kenya) and from the Nile. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A comparison of a 6450 14C yr δ18O and δ13C record of authigenic calcite from Lake Awassa, Ethiopia, with other proxy climate records in the area suggests that the lake records long-term regional climate changes. Co-varying and increasing δ18O and δ13C values from ∼4800 BP suggest an aridification of climate after the early Holocene insolation maximum. After 4000 BP, humid conditions return until after ∼2800 BP when δ18O increases again, reflecting more arid conditions recorded elsewhere in Ethiopia. In addition to these long-term changes, there are abrupt decreases in both δ18Ocalcite and δ13Ccalcite immediately after tephra layers. The likeliest explanation for these abrupt decreases in isotopes is the effect of tephra on the lake''s catchment vegetation. δ18O, δ13C and lake-level measurements from Lake Awassa since the 1970s suggest that the lake is currently isotopically sensitive to short-term (annual–decadal) climate change. However, during this period, the catchment has undergone progressive deforestation that may have caused an increase in runoff. Caution is therefore required when reconstructing palaeoclimates as a contemporary lake may not always be a good analogue for lake hydrology in the past. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Event layers in lake sediments are indicators of past extreme events, mostly the results of floods or earthquakes. Detailed characterisation of the layers allows the discrimination of the sedimentation processes involved, such as surface runoff, landslides or subaqueous slope failures. These processes can then be interpreted in terms of their triggering mechanisms. Here we present a 40 ka event layer chronology from Lake Suigetsu, Japan. The event layers were characterised using a multi-proxy approach, employing light microscopy and μXRF for microfacies analysis. The vast majority of event layers in Lake Suigetsu was produced by flood events (362 out of 369), allowing the construction of the first long-term, quantitative (with respect to recurrence) and well dated flood chronology from the region. The flood layer frequency shows a high variability over the last 40 ka, and it appears that extreme precipitation events were decoupled from the average long-term precipitation. For instance, the flood layer frequency is highest in the Glacial at around 25 ka BP, at which time Japan was experiencing a generally cold and dry climate. Other cold episodes, such as Heinrich Event 1 or the Late Glacial stadial, show a low flood layer frequency. Both observations together exclude a simple, straightforward relationship with average precipitation and temperature. We argue that, especially during Glacial times, changes in typhoon genesis/typhoon tracks are the most likely control on the flood layer frequency, rather than changes in the monsoon front or snow melts. Spectral analysis of the flood chronology revealed periodic variations on centennial and millennial time scales, with 220 yr, 450 yr and a 2000 yr cyclicity most pronounced. However, the flood layer frequency appears to have not only been influenced by climate changes, but also by changes in erosion rates due to, for instance, earthquakes. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: East African paleoenvironments are highly variable, marked by extreme fluctuations in moisture availability, which has far-reaching implications for the origin, evolution and dispersal of Homo sapiens in and beyond the region. This paper presents results from a pilot core from the Chew Bahir basin in southern Ethiopia that records the climatic history of the past 45 ka, with emphasis on the African Humid Period (AHP, ∼15–5 ka calBP). Geochemical, physical and biological indicators show that Chew Bahir responded to climatic fluctuations on millennial to centennial timescales, and to the precessional cycle, since the Last Glacial Maximum. Potassium content of the sediment appears to be a reliable proxy for aridity, showing that Chew Bahir reacted to the insolation-controlled humidity increase of the AHP with a remarkably abrupt onset and a gradual termination, framing a sharply defined arid phase (∼12.8–11.6 ka calBP) corresponding to the Younger Dryas chronozone. The Chew Bahir record correlates well with low- and high-latitude paleoclimate records, demonstrating that the site responded to regional and global climate changes. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The high potential of the varved sediments of Lake Suigetsu, central Japan, to provide a purely terrestrial radiocarbon calibration model and a chronology of palaeoclimatic changes has been widely recognised for the last two decades. However, this potential has not been fully realised since the only available long sediment core from the lake (‘SG93’) was extracted from a single bore hole and was therefore interrupted by gaps of unknown duration between successive core sections. In the summer of 2006, a new sediment core (‘SG06’) was recovered from the lake. Four separate boreholes were drilled and the parallel sets of cores recovered were found to overlap completely, without gaps between segments. This new record provides the ability to test existing atmospheric radiocarbon calibration models, as well as to assess the scale of inter-regional leads and lags in palaeoclimatic changes over the last Glacial–Interglacial cycle. Multi-disciplinary analyses from SG06 are still ongoing, but a reliable description of the sedimentary sequence needs to be provided to the wider science community before major outputs from the project are released, thereby allowing fully-informed critical evaluation of all subsequent releases of data based on the SG06 record. In this paper, we report key litho-stratigraphic information concerning the SG06 sediment core, highlighting changes in the clarity of annual laminations (varves) with depth, and possible implications for the mechanism of the climate change. We also discuss the potential of the SG06 record to meet the fundamental goals of the INQUA-INTIMATE project. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: High-resolution diatom, sediment and pollen analyses of two sections from the annually laminated SG06 core from Lake Suigetsu were used to study the onset and termination of the late-glacial climate reversal in central Japan. Its broadly recognised counterpart is the Younger Dryas or Greenland Stadial-1 (ca. 12.85–11.65cal. kyr BP based on the NGRIP ice core records). Our study suggests that accumulation of the analysed late-glacial sediments occurred in a deep and relatively cold water meso-eutrophic lake with a strong mixing regime and relatively high silica content. Combining these results together with available pollen-based environmental reconstructions we suggest that climate cooling, together with an intensified winter monsoon and thicker snow cover could influence changes in regional vegetation, sedimentation processes and trophic status of the lake during the transition from the last interstadial to stadial around Lake Suigetsu. A decrease in total pollen concentration and increase in Fagus pollen percentage indicate local vegetation stress/disturbances and suggest that cooling started at least 2–3 decades prior to the major shift in the inorganic sediment (accumulation of detrital layers) and in diatom assemblages (change from Aulacoseira ambigua to Aulacoseira subarctica dominance), which took about 10years. The transition from the last stadial to the Holocene again shows that vegetation in the lake catchment area reacted first to the regional climate change, i.e. to the weakening of the winter monsoon and decrease in winter snow accumulation. The increase in the vegetation cover density and reduced volume of surface runoff associated with the decrease in melt water supply is likely responsible for the reduced soil erosion activity which caused the cessation in detrital layer accumulation and consequent decrease in the amount of nutrients brought to the lake and lowering of the water nutrient status. The latter process finally influenced changes in the diatom assemblages, including the return to dominance of A. subarctica ca. 30years after the virtual disappearance of detrital layers from the sediment. Our results demonstrate the rapid response of the Lake Suigetsu system to the global cooling and subsequent warming, and allow clear definition of the onset and termination of the late-glacial climate reversal. Despite the fact that the lake system shows a more abrupt shift from the warm to cold (and cold to warm) environments than terrestrial records of vegetation demonstrate, we do not see any delayed response of local vegetation to the climate change. This last conclusion is of particular importance for application of the SG06 pollen record for quantitative climate reconstruction. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

During the past 25 ka, southern Ethiopia has undergone tremendous climatic changes, from dry and relatively cold during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 25–18 ka) to the African Humid Period (AHP, 15–5 ka), and back to present-day dry conditions. As a contribution to better understand the effects of climate change on vegetation and lakes, we here present a new Predictive Vegetation Model that is linked with a Lake Balance Model and available vegetation-proxy records from southern Ethiopia including a new phytolith record from the Chew Bahir basin. We constructed a detailed paleo-landcover map of southern Ethiopia during the LGM, AHP (with and without influence of the Congo Air Boundary) and the modern-day potential natural landcover. Compared to today, we observe a 15–20% reduction in moisture availability during the LGM with widespread open landscapes and only few remaining forest refugia. We identify 25–40% increased moisture availability during the AHP with prevailing forests in the mid-altitudes and indications that modern anthropogenic landcover change has affected the water balance. In comparison with existing archaeological records, we find that human occupations tend to correspond with open landscapes during the late Pleistocene and Holocene in southern Ethiopia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Chew Bahir Drilling Project (CBDP) aims to test possible linkages between climate and hominin evolution in Africa through the analysis of sediment cores that have recorded environmental changes in the Chew Bahir basin (CHB). In this statistical project we used recurrence plots (RPs) together with a recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) to distinguish two types of variability and transitions in the Chew Bahir aridity record and compare them with the ODP Site 967 wetness index from the eastern Mediterranean. The first type of variability is one of slow variations with cycles of ∼20 kyr, reminiscent of the Earth's precession cycle, and subharmonics of this orbital cycle. In addition to these cyclical wet-dry fluctuations in the area, extreme events often occur, i.e. short wet or dry episodes, lasting for several centuries or even millennia, and rapid transitions between these wet and dry episodes. The second type of variability is characterized by relatively low variation on orbital time scales, but significant century-millennium-scale variations with progressively increasing frequencies. Within this type of variability there are extremely fast transitions between dry and wet within a few decades or years, in contrast to those within Type 1 with transitions over several hundreds of years. Type 1 variability probably reflects the influence of precessional forcing in the lower latitudes at times with maximum values of the long (400 kyr) eccentricity cycle of the Earth's orbit around the sun, with the tendency towards extreme events. Type 2 variability seems to be linked with minimum values of this cycle. There does not seem to be a systematic correlation between Type 1 or Type 2 variability with atmospheric CO 2 concentration. The different types of variability and the transitions between those types had important effects on the availability of water, and could have transformed eastern Africa's environment considerably, which would have had important implications for the shaping of the habitat of H. sapiens and the direct ancestors of this species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How do we convert variabilities and trends in hundreds of potential parameters that are typically analyzed in the framework of a scientific drilling project to actual climate proxies? Using the case study from the Chew Bahir core from the southern Ethiopian Rift, we will show that deciphering climate information from lake sediments is challenging, because of the complex relationship between climate parameters and sediment composition. Establishing a reliable climate proxy for a new terrestrial archive requires the stepwise development of a profound understanding of both climate-controlled and non-climate controlled processes in the catchment. As a contribution towards an enhanced understanding of human-climate interactions the Chew Bahir Drilling Project, as part of HSPDP (Hominin Sites and Paleolakes Drilling Project) recovered 280 m-long sediment records from a deep, tectonically-bound basin in the southern Ethiopian rift in late 2014. The Chew Bahir record covers the past ~600 ka of environmental history, a critical time period that includes the transition to the Middle Stone Age, and the origin and dispersal of modern Homo sapiens. By deconvolving the relationship between sedimentological processes and geochemical parameters and strongly climate-controlled processes in the Chew Bahir basin, such as weathering (incongruent dissolution), transportation and authigenic mineral alteration, site-specific indicators for climate shifts on different magnitudes are being developed to eventually provide a detailed and reliable climate record. This study uses a multi indicator approach including whole rock and clay mineral analyses (XRD), XRF geochemistry and sedimentology such as grain size analysis. We will illustrate how sensitively the degree of authigenic transformation in especially clay minerals and zeolites has recorded even subtle shifts in the hydrochemistry of paleolake and porewaters, thereby representing a robust tool for differentiating contrasting chemical environments controlled by climatic change. The precise time resolution, largely continuous record and (eventually) a detailed understanding of site specific proxy formation, will give us a continuous record of environmental history on decadal to orbital timescales. Our data enable us to test current hypotheses of the impact of a variety of climate shifts on human evolution and dispersal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]