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Cattle heat stress causes billions of dollars' worth of losses to meat and milk production globally, and is projected to become more severe in the future due to climate change. Tree establishment in pastoral livestock systems holds potential to reduce cattle heat stress and thus provide nature-based adaptation. We developed a general model for the impact of trees on cattle heat stress, which can project milk and meat production under future climate scenarios at varying spatial scales. The model incorporates the key microclimate mechanisms influenced by trees, including shade, air temperature, humidity, and wind speed. We conducted sensitivity analyses to demonstrate the relative influence of different mechanisms through which trees can impact cattle heat stress, and how tree impacts are influenced by climatic context globally. Trees hold the greatest potential to reduce cattle heat stress in higher latitudes and altitudes, with minor benefits in the lowland tropics. We projected the future contributions of current trees in mitigating climate change impacts on the dairy and beef herds of Aotearoa-New Zealand (A-NZ) in 2070-2080. Trees were simulated to contribute to A-NZ milk yields by over 491 million liters (lower CI = 112 million liters, upper CI = 850 million liters), and meat yields by over 8316 tonnes (lower CI = 2431 tonnes, upper CI = 13,668 tonnes) annually. The total economic contribution of existing trees in mitigating future cattle heat stress was valued at $US 244 million (lower CI = $US 58 million, upper CI = $US 419 million). Our findings demonstrate the importance of existing trees in pastoral landscapes and suggest that strategic tree establishment can be a valuable adaptation option for reducing cattle heat stress under climate change. Tree establishment in the next few years is critical to provide adaptation capacity and economic benefit in future decades., (© 2024 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Ecosystems can sustain social adaptation to environmental change by protecting people from climate change effects and providing options for sustaining material and non-material benefits as ecological structure and functions transform. Along adaptation pathways, people navigate the trade-offs between different ecosystem contributions to adaptation, or adaptation services (AS), and can enhance their synergies and co-benefits as environmental change unfolds. Understanding trade-offs and co-benefits of AS is therefore essential to support social adaptation and requires analysing how people co-produce AS. We analysed co-production along the three steps of the ecosystem cascade: (i) ecosystem management; (ii) mobilization; and (iii) appropriation, social access and appreciation. Using five exemplary case studies across socio-ecosystems and continents, we show how five broad mechanisms already active for current ecosystem services can enhance co-benefits and minimize trade-offs between AS: (1) traditional and multi-functional land/sea management targeting ecological resilience; (2) pro-active management for ecosystem transformation; (3) co-production of novel services in landscapes without compromising other services; (4) collective governance of all co-production steps; and (5) feedbacks from appropriation, appreciation of and social access to main AS. We conclude that knowledge and recognition of co-production mechanisms will enable pro-active management and governance for collective adaptation to ecosystem transformation. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions'.

In the present context of concerns for biodiversity, the French Academy of Sciences produced in 2017 a report entitled "Mechanisms of adaptation of biodiversity to climate change and their limits". We briefly review here the production process and structure of the report, and summarize its conclusions and recommendations. The conclusions emphasize the role of habitat fragmentation in the expected impact of climate change on biodiversity, in particular for organisms with limited dispersal abilities, and the disparities in species responses which must be taken to understand the future of species assemblages ("communities") under different scenarios of climate change. The recommendations cover the organization of biodiversity research and monitoring (development of observatories, key role of embedded time scales and modeling, integration of Human and Social Sciences), as well as critical domains such as Human, animal and plant health, agriculture and forestry policies, and management of the Environment.

Adaptation services are the ecosystem processes and services that benefit people by increasing their ability to adapt to change. Benefits may accrue from existing but newly used services where ecosystems persist or from novel services supplied following ecosystem transformation. Ecosystem properties that enable persistence or transformation are important adaptation services because they support future options. The adaptation services approach can be applied to decisions on trade-offs between currently valued services and benefits from maintaining future options. For example, ecosystem functions and services of floodplains depend on river flows. In those regions of the world where climate change projections are for hotter, drier conditions, floods will be less frequent and floodplains will either persist, though with modified structure and function, or transform to terrestrial (flood-independent) ecosystems. Many currently valued ecosystem services will reduce in supply or become unavailable, but new options are provided by adaptation services. We present a case study from the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia, for operationalizing the adaptation services concept for floodplains and wetlands. We found large changes in flow and flood regimes are likely under a scenario of +1.6°C by 2030, even with additional water restored to rivers under the proposed Murray-Darling Basin Plan. We predict major changes to floodplain ecosystems, including contraction of riparian forests and woodlands and expansion of terrestrial, drought-tolerant vegetation communities. Examples of adaptation services under this scenario include substitution of irrigated agriculture with dryland cropping and floodplain grazing; mitigation of damage from rarer, extreme floods; and increased tourism, recreational, and cultural values derived from fewer, smaller wetlands that can be maintained with environmental flows. Management for adaptation services will require decisions on where intervention can enable ecosystem persistence and where transformation is inevitable. New ways of managing water that include consideration of the increasing importance of adaptation services requires major changes to decision-making that better account for landscape heterogeneity and large-scale change rather than attempting to maintain ecosystems in fixed states.

Ecosystem services are typically valued for their immediate material or cultural benefits to human wellbeing, supported by regulating and supporting services. Under climate change, with more frequent stresses and novel shocks, 'climate adaptation services', are defined as the benefits to people from increased social ability to respond to change, provided by the capability of ecosystems to moderate and adapt to climate change and variability. They broaden the ecosystem services framework to assist decision makers in planning for an uncertain future with new choices and options. We present a generic framework for operationalising the adaptation services concept. Four steps guide the identification of intrinsic ecological mechanisms that facilitate the maintenance and emergence of ecosystem services during periods of change, and so materialise as adaptation services. We applied this framework for four contrasted Australian ecosystems. Comparative analyses enabled by the operational framework suggest that adaptation services that emerge during trajectories of ecological change are supported by common mechanisms: vegetation structural diversity, the role of keystone species or functional groups, response diversity and landscape connectivity, which underpin the persistence of function and the reassembly of ecological communities under severe climate change and variability. Such understanding should guide ecosystem management towards adaptation planning., (© 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Land use and climate change are primary causes of changes in the supply of ecosystem services (ESs). Although the consequences of climate change on ecosystem properties and associated services are well documented, the cascading impacts of climate change on ESs through changes in land use are largely overlooked. We present a trait-based framework based on an empirical model to elucidate how climate change affects tradeoffs among ESs. Using alternative scenarios for mountain grasslands, we predicted how direct effects of climate change on ecosystems and indirect effects through farmers' adaptations are likely to affect ES bundles through changes in plant functional properties. ES supply was overall more sensitive to climate than to induced management change, and ES bundles remained stable across scenarios. These responses largely reflected the restricted extent of management change in this constrained system, which was incorporated when scaling up plot level climate and management effects on ecosystem properties to the entire landscape. The trait-based approach revealed how the combination of common driving traits and common responses to changed fertility determined interactions and tradeoffs among ESs.

Predicting the response of species to environmental changes is a great and on-going challenge for ecologists, and this requires a more in-depth understanding of the importance of biotic interactions and the population structuration in the landscape. Using a reciprocal transplantation experiment, we tested the response of five species to an elevational gradient. This was combined to a neighbour removal treatment to test the importance of local adaptation and biotic interactions. The trait studied was performance measured as survival and biomass. Species response varied along the elevational gradient, but with no consistent pattern. Performance of species was influenced by environmental conditions occurring locally at each site, as well as by positive or negative effects of the surrounding vegetation. Indeed, we observed a shift from competition for biomass to facilitation for survival as a response to the increase in environmental stress occurring in the different sites. Unlike previous studies pointing out an increase of stress along the elevation gradient, our results supported a stress gradient related to water availability, which was not strictly parallel to the elevational gradient. For three of our species, we observed a greater biomass production for the population coming from the site where the species was dominant (central population) compared to population sampled at the limit of the distribution (marginal population). Nevertheless, we did not observe any pattern of local adaptation that could indicate adaptation of populations to a particular habitat. Altogether, our results highlighted the great ability of plant species to cope with environmental changes, with no local adaptation and great variability in response to local conditions. Our study confirms the importance of taking into account biotic interactions and population structure occurring at local scale in the prediction of communities' responses to global environmental changes., (© 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

As Earth's climate has varied strongly through geological time, studying the impacts of past climate change on biodiversity helps to understand the risks from future climate change. However, it remains unclear how paleoclimate shapes spatial variation in biodiversity. Here, we assessed the influence of Quaternary climate change on spatial dissimilarity in taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional composition among neighboring 200-kilometer cells (beta-diversity) for angiosperm trees worldwide. We found that larger glacial-interglacial temperature change was strongly associated with lower spatial turnover (species replacements) and higher nestedness (richness changes) components of beta-diversity across all three biodiversity facets. Moreover, phylogenetic and functional turnover was lower and nestedness higher than random expectations based on taxonomic beta-diversity in regions that experienced large temperature change, reflecting phylogenetically and functionally selective processes in species replacement, extinction, and colonization during glacial-interglacial oscillations. Our results suggest that future human-driven climate change could cause local homogenization and reduction in taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional diversity of angiosperm trees worldwide.

In mountains, grasslands managed for livestock production sustain local economies, culture and identity. However, their future fodder production is highly uncertain under climate change: While an extended growing season may be beneficial, more frequent and intense summer droughts could also reduce fodder quantity and quality. Land use and land cover (LULC) changes are another major driver of grassland biomass production, but combined effects of future land use transitions and climate change are rarely quantified.We modelled combined climate and LULC scenarios for grassland production of the Maurienne Valley (French Alps) by 2085. We built a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) from long‐term grassland production monitoring data complemented with expert knowledge. We assessed the potential of two candidate adaptations, intensification as an incremental solution and silvopastoralism as a transformative solution to compensate combined impacts of two climate scenarios and three land use change scenarios.Total biomass production was far more sensitive to LULC than to climate scenarios. Production losses were largest under the conservation LULC scenario (−28% on average between 2020 and 2085), followed by the tourism development scenario (−7%) and the business‐as‐usual scenario (+3%). Climate change under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 8.5 altered the seasonality of production by increasing potential production from May to July while decreasing summer regrowth.Synthesis and applications: Changes in LULC are more decisive for global biomass production than climate change. However, under the most extreme climate change scenario (RCP8.5), the seasonal shift in production and increased interannual variability threaten the current grass‐based protected designation of origin (PDO) production system. Only the intensification adaptation solution showed significant gains in total biomass production. Still, the silvopastoralism would require less investment compared to the intensification and have a similar efficiency when assessing the gains of biomass by the surface concerned with adaptation solutions. Along with decreased total annual production due to decreasing grassland area compounded by more extreme climate change, the seasonal shift in production and increased interannual variability threaten the current grass‐based PDO production system. Further Bayesian modelling co‐developed with local stakeholders and experts could greatly contribute to adaptation planning of the regional production system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ongoing biodiversity and climate change crises require society to adopt nature‐based solutions that integrate and enhance ecosystems. To achieve successful implementation of nature‐based solutions, it is vital to communicate scientific information about their benefits and suitability.This article explores the potential of generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) as a tool for automating and scaling up science communication, outreach, and extension for nature‐based solutions.To illustrate the potential of GenAI, we present three case study examples; (1) reporting scientific information on ecosystem services, future land use options, and nature‐based solutions for farms (2) interactively providing guidance in response to homeowner questions about biodiversity‐friendly garden design and (3) visualising potential future scenarios of landscape change that incorporate diverse nature based and technological solutions. These examples demonstrate potential applications which may be relevant to other systems and types of nature‐based solutions.While GenAI for nature‐based solutions offers significant opportunities, this new technology brings risks of bias, false information, data privacy, mistrust, and high energy usage. Alongside technological development, we require integrated social research into ethics, public acceptability, and user experience, to maximise the benefits of GenAI while limiting these risks.GenAI offers an opportunity to accelerate the dissemination of nature‐based design strategies and reach a broader audience, by synthesising information and producing tailored content for specific users and locations. By harnessing the power of GenAI alongside human expertise, we can support nature‐based solutions to tackle the complex challenges of future sustainability. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nature provides numerous functions and services that can contribute to societal climate change adaptation. These 'adaptation services' can be sustained, latent, or novel, depend on persistence or transformation of ecosystems, and require varying co-production by people. Adaptation services also include climate mitigation. We present an approach to explore an extensive set of land use and climate scenarios that outline possible futures for a landscape, and quantify the contributions of adaptation services. We quantified adaptation success across six criteria relevant to the region, characterised the contributions of different types of adaptation services, and mapped spatial variation in contributions across the landscape. We built an integrated model of the Mackenzie District (an upland landscape of Aotearoa New Zealand), and analysed 1200 hypothetical scenarios for the period 2060–2070. We found many adaptation options, with 46% of scenarios meeting the criteria for successful adaptation. Four sustained, two latent and five novel services co-produced through financial input made diverse contributions to economic profit, profit resilience, climate change mitigation, climate risk adaptation, landscape cultural heritage and biodiversity. Successful adaptation scenarios were multifunctional, relying on alternative combinations of services allowed by spatial heterogeneity. By accounting for the numerous relationships between people and natural components within complex landscape systems, our advanced simulation approach can inform participatory pathway development by quantifying the potential for nature to contribute to future climate change adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As decisions on climate change adaptation involve stakeholders with different values, beliefs and attitudes (VBA), decision outcomes depend on how stakeholders interact and how power is distributed. In this paper, we explore the VBA of stakeholders involved in three water management projects focusing on dams, micro-reservoirs, or wetlands in a Peruvian watershed facing droughts. We apply a framework with the core ideas of the hydrosocial cycle, the decision context perspective, and the VBA hierarchy to show how stakeholders' perspectives and power influence practices on the ground. The analysis of VBA reveals three different perspectives on water management held by different stakeholder groups. First, a community-based perspective, frequent among local communities, favors micro-reservoirs managed by communities. Second, an infrastructure-based perspective, frequent among public sector stakeholders, shows a preference for dams managed by the private sector. Third, a nature-based perspective, with a preference for wetlands managed by the public sector, is found across stakeholder groups. In the three water management projects, different power distributions determine which VBA dominate and influence practices on the ground. Dams on the ground represent power from the public and private sectors, while micro-reservoirs represent local grassroot control. In the wetland project, the outcomes of the evolving hydrosocial cycle are still unclear and will depend on how multiple perspectives are considered. Examining and questioning the decision context in which adaptation occurs can help excluded stakeholders achieve more power and agency and tackle the fundamental question of 'adaptation of what and for whom'. • We analyze values, beliefs, and attitudes (VBA) in climate change adaptation. • We study three water management projects in a Peruvian watershed. • Stakeholders in the projects have contrasted VBA. • Water management on the ground results from power distribution within projects. • Power relationships mediate the interactions between sets of VBA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A growing body of work examines the direct and indirect effects of climate change on ecosystems, typically by using manipulative experiments at a single site or performing meta‐analyses across many independent experiments. However, results from single‐site studies tend to have limited generality. Although meta‐analytic approaches can help overcome this by exploring trends across sites, the inherent limitations in combining disparate datasets from independent approaches remain a major challenge. In this paper, we present a globally distributed experimental network that can be used to disentangle the direct and indirect effects of climate change. We discuss how natural gradients, experimental approaches, and statistical techniques can be combined to best inform predictions about responses to climate change, and we present a globally distributed experiment that utilizes natural environmental gradients to better understand long‐term community and ecosystem responses to environmental change. The warming and (species) removal in mountains (WaRM) network employs experimental warming and plant species removals at high‐ and low‐elevation sites in a factorial design to examine the combined and relative effects of climatic warming and the loss of dominant species on community structure and ecosystem function, both above‐ and belowground. The experimental design of the network allows for increasingly common statistical approaches to further elucidate the direct and indirect effects of warming. We argue that combining ecological observations and experiments along gradients is a powerful approach to make stronger predictions of how ecosystems will function in a warming world as species are lost, or gained, in local communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and Aims The acquisitive–conservative axis of plant ecological strategies results in a pattern of leaf trait covariation that captures the balance between leaf construction costs and plant growth potential. Studies evaluating trait covariation within species are scarcer, and have mostly dealt with variation in response to environmental gradients. Little work has been published on intraspecific patterns of leaf trait covariation in the absence of strong environmental variation. Methods We analysed covariation of four leaf functional traits [specific leaf area (SLA) leaf dry matter content (LDMC), force to tear (Ft) and leaf nitrogen content (Nm)] in six Poaceae and four Fabaceae species common in the dry Chaco forest of Central Argentina, growing in the field and in a common garden. We compared intraspecific covariation patterns (slopes, correlation and effect size) of leaf functional traits with global interspecific covariation patterns. Additionally, we checked for possible climatic and edaphic factors that could affect the intraspecific covariation pattern. Key Results We found negative correlations for the LDMC–SLA, Ft–SLA, LDMC–Nm and Ft–Nm trait pairs. This intraspecific covariation pattern found both in the field and in the common garden and not explained by climatic or edaphic variation in the field follows the expected acquisitive–conservative axis. At the same time, we found quantitative differences in slopes among different species, and between these intraspecific patterns and the interspecific ones. Many of these differences seem to be idiosyncratic, but some appear consistent among species (e.g. all the intraspecific LDMC–SLA and LDMC–Nm slopes tend to be shallower than the global pattern). Conclusions Our study indicates that the acquisitive–conservative leaf functional trait covariation pattern occurs at the intraspecific level even in the absence of relevant environmental variation in the field. This suggests a high degree of variation–covariation in leaf functional traits not driven by environmental variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• There is a clear need to shift to intentional transformative adaptation (ITA). • ITA can be achieved through incremental and transformative actions. • Central to ITA are issues of social change and power imbalances. • Participants in six case studies could overcome some challenges to implementing ITA. • Enabling change requires pluralism, knowledge contestation, and re-politicisation. Human actions have driven earth systems close to irreversible and profound change. The need to shift towards intentional transformative adaptation (ITA) is clear. Using case studies from the Transformative Adaptation Research Alliance (TARA), we explore ITA as a way of thinking and acting that is transformative in concept and objectives, but achieved through a mix of incremental and transformative co-production processes that ultimately lead to the social-ecological system being transformed. Central to ITA are social and political issues of how individuals and collectives address environmental and social change and deal with power imbalances. ITA approaches are claimed to help overcome adaptation challenges, including: 1) re-framing human-nature relationships; 2) dealing with uncertainty; 3) engendering empowerment and agency and 4) addressing conflicting values and interests. However, it is unclear if these approaches work in practice. We examined six adaptation case studies in which participants used processes of: 1) co-producing visions of the future; 2) re-framing values, rules and knowledge to shift decision contexts for adaptation and 3) implementing actions using theories of change and adaptation pathways. We assessed the extent to which participants could use these processes to address their adaptation challenges. We found evidence of many positive achievements towards the implementation of ITA, but also examples where processes were not working, such as communities having difficulties in finding ways to work co-operatively. Different processes will be needed to address these issues, such as promoting pluralism, knowledge contestation, and deliberative re-politicisation of the adaptation agenda to shift power imbalances and enable change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transformation of social-ecological systems due to climate change requires, transformative adaptation responses. We propose the concept of nature's contribution to adaptation (NCA; previously called adaptation services), to reveal properties of ecosystems that provide options for future livelihoods and adaptation to transformative change. Knowledge about the capacity of ecosystems to supply NCA can inform decisions by revealing options for adaptation. We analysed eight historical and contemporary case studies of transformative adaptation and found that the five cases with medium-high degree of adaptation and use of NCA showed evidence of participative learning and co-production of adaptation options, low values contestation, low power imbalances and well-developed governance arrangements. These variables indicated that communities engaged in adaptation had ownership and agency to change how they thought and acted to implement transformative adaptation. We found the use of NCAs enabled transformative adaptation by helping people overcome current decision constraints imposed by societal values, institutional rules, or knowledge deficits to create novel options and re-frame decision contexts. The NCA concept can be applied to (1) help resolve uncertainties about nature's contributions to people under environmental change; (2) reveal ecosystem properties of value for adaptation, but which are marginalised in current, dominant knowledge frameworks and decision-making; (3) act as a 'boundary object' for participative learning and co-production of adaptation options. Thus, the NCA concept represents a pragmatic, optimistic approach for societal adaptation to ecosystem transformation, countering feelings of despair that accompany the acceptance of irreversible, unavoidable loss of current ecosystem states and associated nature's contributions to people. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Enhancing the capacity of social‐ecological systems (SES) to adapt to climate change is of crucial importance. While gradual climate change impacts have been the main focus of much recent research, much less is known about how SES are impacted by climate extremes and how they adapt. Here, based on an advanced conceptualization of social‐ecological resilience, performed by an interdisciplinary group of scientists, we outline three major challenges for operationalizing the resilience concept with particular focus on climate extremes. First, we discuss the necessary steps required to identify and measure relevant variables for capturing the full response spectrum of the coupled social and ecological components of SES. Second, we examine how climate extreme impacts on coupling flows in SES can be quantified by learning from past societal transitions or adaptations to climate extremes and resulting changes in ecosystem service supply. Last, we explore how to identify management options for maintaining and enhancing social‐ecological resilience under a changing regime of climate extremes. We conclude that multiple pathways within adaptation and mitigation strategies which enhance the adaptive capacity of SES to absorb climate extremes will open the way toward a sustainable future. Plain Language Summary: Ecosystems and society are closely coupled and are both affected by climate change. Climate extremes are expected to occur more often and/or get more intense under climate change. We ask the following question: How can ecosystems and society, which can be described as so‐called social‐ecological systems, withstand climate extremes and can therefore become more resilient? To achieve this, we use the concept of social‐ecological resilience and identify three challenges that scientists, decision makers, and practitioners need to work on to improve the adaptive capacity of social‐ecological systems to climate extremes. We need to describe and measure the main drivers of climate extremes that impact ecosystems and society and those variables that describe the adaptive capacity and all possible responses of ecosystems and society. Ecosystems and society are coupled: Ecosystems provide ecosystem services to society, and society manages ecosystems. These coupling flows also change under the impact of climate extremes. We still do not fully understand how climate extremes impact these coupling flows or how they can be measured. Because society has influenced ecosystems for many centuries and millennia in many regions of the world, these coupling flows also often have a long history; as such we cannot expect ecosystems and society to adapt to climate extremes separately. We can learn about impacts from past extreme events to continuously improve the management of ecosystems and increase the adaptive capacity of social‐ecological systems. Such management options range from adaptations of land management to institutional practices which are often necessary in order to be useful in helping the affected region immediately after a climate extreme event. Key Points: Climate extremes impact the resilience of social‐ecological systems; their adaptation requires knowledge on ecological and social mechanismsRelevant ecological and social variables document the impact of climate extremes on the coupling flows, enabling management optionsThree challenges remain to advance our understanding on adapting social‐ecological systems for a resilient and sustainable future [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • Climate change adaptation in mountain socio-ecosystems builds on historical resilience. • The mosaic of grassland types can be managed for bundles of adaptation services. • Benefits from adaptation services are accrued along adaptation pathways. • Novel governance arrangements build on place attachment and collective institutions. • Early stakeholder engagement fosters proactivity against maladaptive trends. Abstract Mountain social-ecological systems (SES) supply important ecosystem services that are threatened by climate change. In mountain SES there is a paradox between high community capacity to cope with extremes, and governance structures and processes that constrain that capacity from being realised. Climate adaptation that maintains livelihoods and supply of ecosystem services can catalyse this innate adaptive capacity if new adaptive governance arrangements can be created. Using the French Alps as a case study, we outline a participative framework for transformative adaptation that links adaptive capacity and governance to provide social innovation and ecosystem-based adaptation solutions for mountain SES. Grassland management was the main entry point for adaptation: bundles of adaptation services supplied by the landscape mosaic of biodiverse grassland types can maintain agricultural production and tourism and facilitate income diversification. Deliberate management for core adaptation services like resilient fodder production, erosion control, shade or aesthetic value generates co-benefits for future transformation ability. People activate bundles of adaptation services along adaptation pathways and realise benefits via co-production with other forms of capital including traditional knowledge or social networks. Common and distinctive adaptation services in each pathway create options for transformation if barriers from interactions between values and rules across scales can be overcome. For example conserving mown terraces which is a critical adaptation nexus reflects a complex interplay of values, markets and governance instruments from local to European scales. We conclude that increasing stakeholders capacity to mobilise adaptation services is critical for empowering them to implement adaptation to global change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: In subalpine grasslands, litter decomposition controls soil nutrient availability and is highly sensitive to increasing intensity and frequency of extreme climate events, potentially impacting grasslands diversity and functioning. Here, we assessed the effects of early snowmelt and summer drought on decomposition, and how these were modulated by agricultural management.Methods: In a common garden, conservative and exploitative assembled communities were submitted for two years to combined snow removal and drought, and to cutting and fertilization. We measured decomposition rates of standard and native leaf material from each plant communities on their respective soils.Results: We observed relatively weak climatic stress effects on decomposition rates. Management increased decomposition rates and remaining litter N contents through leaf quality improvement rather than changed soil biotic activity. Climate events impacted the decomposer community and limited litter N immobilization in conservative communities. Less recalcitrant litter of exploitative species facilitated decomposition and counterbalanced the negative effects of climate stress.Conclusion: Our results suggest that drought and earlier snowmelt could decrease N availability in subalpine grasslands due to reduced litter biomass and decomposition. In the long-term climate change may shift subalpine grasslands towards more conservative plant composition and lower soil fertility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forest ecosystems and their associated natural, cultural and economic values are highly vulnerable to climate driven changes in fire regimes. A detailed knowledge of forest ecosystem responses to altered fire regimes is a necessary underpinning to inform options for adaptive responses under climate change, as well as for providing a basis for understanding how patterns of distribution of vegetation communities that comprise montane forest ecosystems may change in the future. Unplanned consequential adaptation of both natural and human systems, i.e. autonomous adaptation, will occur without planned intervention, with potentially negative impacts on ecosystem services. The persistence of forest stands under changing fire regimes and the maintenance of the ecosystem services that they provide pivot upon underlying response traits, such as the ability to resprout, that determine the degree to which composition, structure and function are likely to change. The integration of ecosystem dynamics into conceptual models and their use in exploring adaptation pathways provides options for policy makers and managers to move from autonomous to planned adaptation responses. Understanding where autonomous adaptation provides a benefit and where it proves potentially undesirable is essential to inform adaptation choices. Plausible scenarios of ecological change can be developed to improve an understanding of the nature and timing of interventions and their consequences, well before natural and human systems autonomously adapt in ways that may be detrimental to the long-term provision of ecosystem services. We explore the utility of this approach using examples from temperate montane forest ecosystems of southeastern Australia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transformative adaptation will be increasingly important to effectively address the impacts of climate change and other global drivers on social-ecological systems. Enabling transformative adaptation requires new ways to evaluate and adaptively manage trade-offs between maintaining desirable aspects of current social-ecological systems and adapting to major biophysical changes to those systems. We outline such an approach, based on three elements developed by the Transformative Adaptation Research Alliance (TARA): (1) the benefits of adaptation services ; that sub-set of ecosystem services that help people adapt to environmental change; (2) The values-rules-knowledge perspective ( vrk ) for identifying those aspects of societal decision-making contexts that enable or constrain adaptation and (3) the adaptation pathways approach for implementing adaptation, that builds on and integrates adaptation services and the vrk perspective. Together, these elements provide a future-oriented approach to evaluation and use of ecosystem services, a dynamic, grounded understanding of governance and decision-making and a logical, sequential approach that connects decisions over time. The TARA approach represents a means for achieving changes in institutions and governance needed to support transformative adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In regions prone to wildfire, a major driver of ecosystem change is increased frequency and intensity of fire events caused by a warming, drying climate. Uncertainty over the nature and extent of change creates challenges for how to manage ecosystems subject to altered structure and function under climate change. Using montane forests in south-eastern Australia as a case study, we addressed this issue by developing an ecosystem state-and-transition model based on a synthesis of expert knowledge and published data, with fire frequency and intensity as drivers. We then used four steps to determine future adaptation options: (1) estimation of changes in ecosystem services under each ecosystem state to identify adaptation services: the ecosystem processes and services that help people adapt to environmental change; (2) identification and sequencing of decision points to maintain each ecosystem state or allow transition to an alternative state; (3) analysis of interactions between societal values, scientific and management knowledge and institutional rules ( vrk) required to reframe the decision context for future management, and (4) determining options for an adaptation pathway for management of montane forests under climate change. Our approach is transferable to other ecosystems for which alternative states can be predicted under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Environmental change can affect species directly by altering their physical environment and indirectly by altering the abundance of interacting species. A key challenge at the interface of community ecology and conservation biology is to predict how direct and indirect effects combine to influence response in a changing environment. In particular, little is known about how direct and indirect effects on biodiversity develop over time or their potential to influence ecosystem function., We studied how nitrogen (N), winter precipitation (snow) and warming influenced diversity and ecosystem function over 6 years in alpine tundra. We used path analyses to partition direct effects of environmental manipulations from indirect effects due to changes in the abundance of two dominant plants. We hypothesize that (i) indirect effects will develop more slowly but will become stronger than direct effects over time and (ii) after 6 years, indirect effects will more strongly influence diversity while direct effects will influence ecosystem function., Indirect effects of N on diversity were consistently stronger than direct effects and actually developed quickly, prior to direct effects. Direct effects of snow on diversity were detected in year 2 but then subsequently were reversed, while indirect effects were detected in year 4 and grew stronger over time. Overall in year 6, indirect effects were much stronger than direct effects on diversity., Direct effects predominated for three of four ecosystem functions we measured (productivity, N mineralization, winter N availability). The only indirect effects we found were that N and snow indirectly affected microbial biomass N by influencing Geum abundance. Across all four ecosystem measures, indirect effects were infrequent and weaker than direct effects., Synthesis. Increasing indirect effects on diversity over time indicate that short-term experiments or monitoring of natural systems may underestimate the full magnitude of global change effects on plant communities. Moreover, explicitly accounting for changes in dominant plant abundance may be necessary for forecasting plant community response to environmental change. Conversely, weak indirect effects for ecosystem processes suggest that predicting ecosystem function without knowledge of plant responses to global change may be possible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights: [•] Participatory regional scenarios combining climate and socio-economic change. [•] Role-playing game to map quantitatively small-scale changes in land management. [•] Drought frequency interacts with socio-economic context to determine farm adaptation. [•] High mountain conditions strongly constrain available options for farm adaptation. [•] Recurring drought threatens mountain agriculture and farmers livelihoods. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The most unusual, and thus irreplaceable, functions performed by species in three different species-rich ecosystems are fulfilled by only the rare species in these ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]