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Rapid evolution may provide a buffer against extinction risk for some species threatened by climate change; however, the capacity to evolve rapidly enough to keep pace with changing environments is unknown for most taxa. The ecosystem-level consequences of climate adaptation are likely to be the largest in marine ecosystems, where short-lived phytoplankton with large effective population sizes make up the bulk of primary production. However, there are substantial challenges to predicting climate-driven evolution in marine systems, including multiple simultaneous axes of change and considerable heterogeneity in rates of change, as well as the biphasic life cycles of many marine metazoans, which expose different life stages to disparate sources of selection. A critical tool for addressing these challenges is experimental evolution, where populations of organisms are directly exposed to controlled sources of selection to test evolutionary responses. We review the use of experimental evolution to test the capacity to adapt to climate change stressors in marine species. The application of experimental evolution in this context has grown dramatically in the past decade, shedding light on the capacity for evolution, associated trade-offs, and the genetic architecture of stress-tolerance traits. Our goal is to highlight the utility of this approach for investigating potential responses to climate change and point a way forward for future studies.

Many species face extinction risks owing to climate change, and there is an urgent need to identify which species' populations will be most vulnerable. Plasticity in heat tolerance, which includes acclimation or hardening, occurs when prior exposure to a warmer temperature changes an organism's upper thermal limit. The capacity for thermal acclimation could provide protection against warming, but prior work has found few generalizable patterns to explain variation in this trait. Here, we report the results of, to our knowledge, the first meta-analysis to examine within-species variation in thermal plasticity, using results from 20 studies (19 species) that quantified thermal acclimation capacities across 78 populations. We used meta-regression to evaluate two leading hypotheses. The climate variability hypothesis predicts that populations from more thermally variable habitats will have greater plasticity, while the trade-off hypothesis predicts that populations with the lowest heat tolerance will have the greatest plasticity. Our analysis indicates strong support for the trade-off hypothesis because populations with greater thermal tolerance had reduced plasticity. These results advance our understanding of variation in populations' susceptibility to climate change and imply that populations with the highest thermal tolerance may have limited phenotypic plasticity to adjust to ongoing climate warming.

Salinity conditions in oyster breeding grounds in the Gulf of Mexico are expected to drastically change due to increased precipitation from climate change and anthropogenic changes to local hydrology. We determined the capacity of the eastern oyster, Crassostrea virginica , to adapt via standing genetic variation or acclimate through transgenerational plasticity (TGP). We outplanted oysters to either a low- or medium-salinity site in Louisiana for 2 years. We then crossed adult parents using a North Carolina II breeding design, and measured body size and survival of larvae 5 dpf raised under low or ambient salinity. We found that TGP is unlikely to significantly contribute to low-salinity tolerance since we did not observe increased growth or survival in offspring reared in low salinity when their parents were also acclimated at a low-salinity site. However, we detected genetic variation for body size, with an estimated heritability of 0.68 ± 0.25 (95% CI). This suggests there is ample genetic variation for this trait to evolve, and that evolutionary adaptation is a possible mechanism through which oysters will persist with future declines in salinity. The results of this experiment provide valuable insights into successfully breeding low-salinity tolerance in this commercially important species.

Trade‐offs may influence both physiological and evolutionary responses to co‐occurring stressors, but their effects on both plastic and adaptive responses to climate change are poorly understood. To test for genetic and physiological trade‐offs incurred in tolerating multiple stressors, we hybridized two populations of the intertidal copepod Tigriopus californicus that were divergent for both heat and salinity tolerance. Starting in the F2 generation, we selected for increased tolerance of heat, low salinity, and high salinity in replicate lines. After five generations of selection, heat‐selected lines had greater heat tolerance but lower fecundity, indicating an energetic cost to tolerance. Lines selected for increased salinity tolerance did not show evidence of adaptation to their respective environments; however, hypo‐osmotic selection lines showed substantial loss of tolerance to hyperosmotic stress. Neither of the salinity selection regimes resulted in diminished heat tolerance at ambient salinity; however, simultaneous exposure to heat and hypo‐osmotic stress led to decreased heat tolerance, implying a physiological trade‐off in tolerance to the two stressors. When we quantified the transcriptomic response to heat and salinity stress via RNA sequencing, we observed little overlap in the stress responses, suggesting the observed synergistic effects of heat and salinity stress were driven by competing energetic demands, rather than shared stress response pathways.

The current rate of climate change is faster than all of geologic history, and one-sixth of all species are at risk of extinction. Changes in species’ distributions through migration and persistence through phenotypic plasticity will not be enough to match unprecedented rates of change. However, recent evidence suggests that some species are capable of adapting through evolution at a sufficient pace to evade extinction. This article explores some of the discoveries of recent adaptations to current climate change and outlines the methods used to demonstrate that evolution has occurred. Additionally, many studies have documented the potential for adaptation to predicted changes in climate. We describe the methods used to demonstrate evolutionary potential and how these methods can inform conservation thinking and management.

Advances in nucleic acid sequencing technology are removing obstacles that historically prevented use of genomics within ocean change biology. As one of the first marine calcifiers to have its genome sequenced, purple sea urchins (Strongylocentrotus purpuratus) have been the subject of early research exploring genomic responses to ocean acidification, work that points to future experiments and illustrates the value of expanding genomic resources to other marine organisms in this new 'post-genomic' era. This review presents case studies of S. purpuratus demonstrating the ability of genomic experiments to address major knowledge gaps within ocean acidification. Ocean acidification research has focused largely on species vulnerability, and studies exploring mechanistic bases of tolerance toward low pH seawater are comparatively few. Transcriptomic responses to high pCO₂ seawater in a population of urchins already encountering low pH conditions have cast light on traits required for success in future oceans. Secondly, there is relatively little information on whether marine organisms possess the capacity to adapt to oceans progressively decreasing in pH. Genomics offers powerful methods to investigate evolutionary responses to ocean acidification and recent work in S. purpuratus has identified genes under selection in acidified seawater. Finally, relatively few ocean acidification experiments investigate how shifts in seawater pH combine with other environmental factors to influence organism performance. In S. purpuratus, transcriptomics has provided insight into physiological responses of urchins exposed simultaneously to warmer and more acidic seawater. Collectively, these data support that similar breakthroughs will occur as genomic resources are developed for other marine species.

Understanding the mechanisms with which organisms can respond to a rapidly changing ocean is an important research priority in marine sciences, especially in the light of recent predictions regarding the pace of ocean change in the coming decades. Transgenerational effects, in which the experience of the parental generation can shape the phenotype of their offspring, may serve as such a mechanism. In this study, adult purple sea urchins, Strongylocentrotus purpuratus, were conditioned to regionally and ecologically relevant pCO

Theory suggests that evolutionary changes in phenotypic plasticity could either hinder or facilitate evolutionary rescue in a changing climate. Nevertheless, the actual role of evolving plasticity in the responses of natural populations to climate change remains unresolved. Direct observations of evolutionary change in nature are rare, making it difficult to assess the relative contributions of changes in trait means versus changes in plasticity to climate change responses. To address this gap, this review explores several proxies that can be used to understand evolving plasticity in the context of climate change, including space for time substitutions, experimental evolution and tests for genomic divergence at environmentally responsive loci. Comparisons among populations indicate a prominent role for divergence in environmentally responsive traits in local adaptation to climatic gradients. Moreover, genomic comparisons among such populations have identified pervasive divergence in the regulatory regions of environmentally responsive loci. Taken together, these lines of evidence suggest that divergence in plasticity plays a prominent role in adaptation to climatic gradients over space, indicating that evolving plasticity is also likely to play a key role in adaptive responses to climate change through time. This suggests that genetic variation in plastic responses to the environment (G × E) might be an important predictor of species' vulnerabilities to climate-driven decline or extinction.This article is part of the theme issue ‘The role of plasticity in phenotypic adaptation to rapid environmental change’.

Antagonistic correlations among traits may slow the rate of adaptation to a changing environment. The tide pool copepod Tigriopus californicus is locally adapted to temperature, but within populations, the response to selection for increased heat tolerance plateaus rapidly, suggesting either limited variation within populations or costs of increased tolerance. To measure possible costs of thermal tolerance, we selected for increased upper lethal limits for 10 generations in 22 lines of T. californicus from six populations. Then, for each line, we measured six fitness-related traits. Selected lines showed an overall increase in male and female body sizes, fecundity, and starvation resistance, suggesting a small benefit from (rather than costs of) increased tolerance. The effect of selection on correlated traits also varied significantly by population for five traits, indicating that the genetic basis for the selection response differed among populations. Our results suggest that adaptation was limited by the presence of variation within isolated populations rather than by costs of increased tolerance.

Climate change may put as much as 35% of the earth’s biota at risk of extinction. Studies of evolutionary responses to climate change seek to understand both past responses to climate and the role that evolutionary adaptation might play in increasing species’ resilience to the effects of future change. We discuss several methods for documenting evolutionary responses to recent climate change, including resurrection ecology, common-garden experiments, quantitative genetic analyses, and molecular genetics. We conclude with a discussion of the ways that evolutionary thinking can be incorporated into management efforts, in an attempt to minimize biodiversity losses from climate change.

Summary Ocean acidification, caused by the uptake of atmospheric CO2, is a threat to marine biodiversity, potentially rivalling the threat imposed by rising temperatures in some marine ecosystems. Although a growing body of literature documents negative effects of acidification on marine organisms, the majority of this work has focused on the effects of future conditions on modern populations, ignoring the potential effects of adaptation and physiological acclimatization. We review current literature on the potential for adaptation to elevated pCO2 in marine organisms. Although this body of work is currently quite small, we argue that data on the physiological effects of acidification, natural variation in pH and lessons learned from previous work on thermal adaptation can all inform predictions and priorities for future research. Spatially varying selection is one of the most important forces maintaining intraspecific genetic variation. Unlike temperature, pH lacks a strong and persistent global gradient, and so selection may maintain less adaptive variation for pH than for temperature. On the other hand, we are only beginning to amass long-term data sets for pH variation in natural habitats, and thus, pH gradients may be more common than previously observed. Two of the most important effects of elevated pCO2 are reduced calcification and changes in metabolism. We discuss the ways that a detailed understanding of the physiological mechanisms underlying these effects is key to predicting the capacity for acclimatization and adaptation. Important priorities for future research will be to assess local adaptation to pH conditions and to measure the capacity for adaptation to future acidified conditions in natural populations. Tools for this work include traditional quantitative genetics, transcriptomics and the adaptation of ion-sensitive field-effect transistor (ISFET) technology for use in continuous seawater pH monitoring in the field.

Physiological plasticity and adaptive evolution may facilitate persistence in a changing environment. As a result, there is an interest in understanding species' capacities for plastic and evolved responses, and the mechanisms by which these responses occur. Transcriptome sequencing has become a powerful tool for addressing these questions, providing insight into otherwise unobserved effects of changing conditions on organismal physiology and variation in these effects among individuals and populations. Here, we review recent studies using comparative transcriptomics to understand plastic and evolutionary responses to changing environments. We focus on 2 areas where transcriptomics has played an important role: first, in understanding the genetic basis for local adaptation to current gradients as a proxy for future adaptation, and second, in understanding organismal responses to multiple stressors. We find most studies examining multiple stressors have tested the effects of each stressor individually; the few studies testing multiple stressors simultaneously have found synergistic effects on gene expression that would not have been predicted from single stressor studies. We discuss the importance of robust experimental design to allow for a more sophisticated characterization of transcriptomic responses and conclude by offering recommendations for future research, including integrating genomics with transcriptomics, testing gene regulatory networks, and comparing the equivalence of transcription to translation and the effects of environmental stress on the proteome.

The extent to which acclimation and genetic adaptation might buffer natural populations against climate change is largely unknown. Most models predicting biological responses to environmental change assume that species' climatic envelopes are homogeneous both in space and time. Although recent discussions have questioned this assumption, few empirical studies have characterized intraspecific patterns of genetic variation in traits directly related to environmental tolerance limits. We test the extent of such variation in the broadly distributed tidepool copepod Tigriopus californicus using laboratory rearing and selection experiments to quantify thermal tolerance and scope for adaptation in eight populations spanning more than 17° of latitude. Tigriopus californicus exhibit striking local adaptation to temperature, with less than 1 per cent of the total quantitative variance for thermal tolerance partitioned within populations. Moreover, heat-tolerant phenotypes observed in low-latitude populations cannot be achieved in high-latitude populations, either through acclimation or 10 generations of strong selection. Finally, in four populations there was no increase in thermal tolerance between generations 5 and 10 of selection, suggesting that standing variation had already been depleted. Thus, plasticity and adaptation appear to have limited capacity to buffer these isolated populations against further increases in temperature. Our results suggest that models assuming a uniform climatic envelope may greatly underestimate extinction risk in species with strong local adaptation.

Species distribution modeling is the most common method of estimating climate change impacts on biodiversity. In this review, we argue a need for collaboration among physiologists, modelers and conservationists to parameterize models with physiological information in order to increase their accuracy and advance the field of conservation physiology., Climate change conservation planning relies heavily on correlative species distribution models that estimate future areas of occupancy based on environmental conditions encountered in present-day ranges. The approach benefits from rapid assessment of vulnerability over a large number of organisms, but can have poor predictive power when transposed to novel environments and reveals little in the way of causal mechanisms that define changes in species distribution or abundance. Having conservation planning rely largely on this single approach also increases the risk of policy failure. Mechanistic models that are parameterized with physiological information are expected to be more robust when extrapolating distributions to future environmental conditions and can identify physiological processes that set range boundaries. Implementation of mechanistic species distribution models requires knowledge of how environmental change influences physiological performance, and because this information is currently restricted to a comparatively small number of well-studied organisms, use of mechanistic modelling in the context of climate change conservation is limited. In this review, we propose that the need to develop mechanistic models that incorporate physiological data presents an opportunity for physiologists to contribute more directly to climate change conservation and advance the field of conservation physiology. We begin by describing the prevalence of species distribution modelling in climate change conservation, highlighting the benefits and drawbacks of both mechanistic and correlative approaches. Next, we emphasize the need to expand mechanistic models and discuss potential metrics of physiological performance suitable for integration into mechanistic models. We conclude by summarizing other factors, such as the need to consider demography, limiting broader application of mechanistic models in climate change conservation. Ideally, modellers, physiologists and conservation practitioners would work collaboratively to build models, interpret results and consider conservation management options, and articulating this need here may help to stimulate collaboration.