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We reconstruct the mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet using a comprehensive survey of thickness, surface elevation, velocity, and surface mass balance (SMB) of 260 glaciers from 1972 to 2018. We calculate mass discharge, D, into the ocean directly for 107 glaciers (85% of D) and indirectly for 110 glaciers (15%) using velocity-scaled reference fluxes. The decadal mass balance switched from a mass gain of +47 ± 21 Gt/y in 1972-1980 to a loss of 51 ± 17 Gt/y in 1980-1990. The mass loss increased from 41 ± 17 Gt/y in 1990-2000, to 187 ± 17 Gt/y in 2000-2010, to 286 ± 20 Gt/y in 2010-2018, or sixfold since the 1980s, or 80 ± 6 Gt/y per decade, on average. The acceleration in mass loss switched from positive in 2000-2010 to negative in 2010-2018 due to a series of cold summers, which illustrates the difficulty of extrapolating short records into longer-term trends. Cumulated since 1972, the largest contributions to global sea level rise are from northwest (4.4 ± 0.2 mm), southeast (3.0 ± 0.3 mm), and central west (2.0 ± 0.2 mm) Greenland, with a total 13.7 ± 1.1 mm for the ice sheet. The mass loss is controlled at 66 ± 8% by glacier dynamics (9.1 mm) and 34 ± 8% by SMB (4.6 mm). Even in years of high SMB, enhanced glacier discharge has remained sufficiently high above equilibrium to maintain an annual mass loss every year since 1998.

We use updated drainage inventory, ice thickness, and ice velocity data to calculate the grounding line ice discharge of 176 basins draining the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 1979 to 2017. We compare the results with a surface mass balance model to deduce the ice sheet mass balance. The total mass loss increased from 40 ± 9 Gt/y in 1979-1990 to 50 ± 14 Gt/y in 1989-2000, 166 ± 18 Gt/y in 1999-2009, and 252 ± 26 Gt/y in 2009-2017. In 2009-2017, the mass loss was dominated by the Amundsen/Bellingshausen Sea sectors, in West Antarctica (159 ± 8 Gt/y), Wilkes Land, in East Antarctica (51 ± 13 Gt/y), and West and Northeast Peninsula (42 ± 5 Gt/y). The contribution to sea-level rise from Antarctica averaged 3.6 ± 0.5 mm per decade with a cumulative 14.0 ± 2.0 mm since 1979, including 6.9 ± 0.6 mm from West Antarctica, 4.4 ± 0.9 mm from East Antarctica, and 2.5 ± 0.4 mm from the Peninsula (i.e., East Antarctica is a major participant in the mass loss). During the entire period, the mass loss concentrated in areas closest to warm, salty, subsurface, circumpolar deep water (CDW), that is, consistent with enhanced polar westerlies pushing CDW toward Antarctica to melt its floating ice shelves, destabilize the glaciers, and raise sea level.

The Ross Ice Shelf (RIS) is currently stable but recent observations have indicated that basal melt rates beneath the ice shelf are expected to increase. It is important to know which areas of the RIS are more sensitive to enhanced basal melting as well as other external forcings or internal material properties of the ice to understand how climate change will influence RIS mass balance. In this paper, we use automatic differentiation and the Ice Sheet and Sea-level System Model to quantify the sensitivity of the RIS to changes in basal friction, ice rigidity, surface mass balance, and basal melting. Using volume above flotation (VAF) as our quantity of interest, we find that the RIS is most sensitive to changes in basal friction and ice rigidity close to grounding lines and along shear margins of the Siple Coast Ice Streams and Transantarctic Mountains Outlet Glaciers. The RIS sensitivity to surface mass balance is uniform over grounded ice, while the sensitivity to basal melting is more spatially variable. Changes in basal melting close to the grounding lines of the Siple Coast Ice Streams and Transantarctic Mountains outlet glaciers have a larger impact on the final VAF compared to elsewhere. Additionally, the pinning points and ice shelf shear margins are highly sensitive to changes in basal melt. Our sensitivity maps allow areas of greatest future vulnerability to be identified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Totten Glacier (TG), the primary ice discharger of East Antarctica, contains 3.85 m sea level rise equivalent (SLRe) ice mass and has displayed ocean‐driven dynamic change since at least the early 2000s. We project TG's evolution through 2100 in an asynchronously coupled ice‐ocean model, forced at the ocean boundaries with anomalies in CMIP6 projected temperature, salinity, and velocity. Consistent with previous studies, the Antarctic Slope Current continues to modulate warm water inflow toward TG in future simulations. Warm water (−0.5 – 1°C) accesses TG's sub‐ice shelf cavity through depressions along the eastern ice front, driving sustained retreat of TG's eastern grounding zone that cannot be captured in uncoupled models. In high emission scenarios, warm water overcomes topographic barriers and dislodges TG's southern grounding zone around 2070, increasing the rate of grounded ice loss 3.5‐fold (10–35 Gt/yr) and resulting in a total 4.20 mm SLRe loss by 2100. Plain Language Summary: Totten Glacier (TG), East Antarctica, has been losing ice mass and retreating as a result of warm ocean water melting the underside of this glacier. To simulate this glacier's future evolution in response to realistic ocean forcing, we combine an ice sheet model of TG with a newly developed East Antarctic ocean model configuration and run simulations through 2100. Consistent with previous modeling studies, we find that the strength of the Antarctic Slope Current controls the presence of warm water near TG in future simulations. Significant retreat is projected on TG's eastern and southern sectors. On the eastern side, warm ocean water flows directly along the transition of floating to grounded ice, causing sustained melt throughout the entire simulation in all experiments. In contrast, warm ocean water can only access and promote retreat of TG's southern sector in the strongest warming scenarios by 2070, significantly accelerating TG's rate of mass loss and resulting in a total sea level rise contribution of 4.20 mm by 2100. Key Points: Simulations of Totten Glacier (TG) over the 21st century are performed in a coupled ice‐ocean modelA 3.5‐fold increase in grounded ice loss follows retreat of TG's southern grounding zone, resulting in a 4.2 mm sea level rise contributionCoupled model results capture the spatial distribution of ocean‐driven basal melting and lead to retreat on the eastern flank [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Antarctic Ice Sheet is losing mass at an accelerating pace, and ice loss will likely continue over the coming decades and centuries. Some regions of the ice sheet may reach a tipping point, potentially leading to rates of sea level rise at least an order of magnitude larger than those observed now, owing to strong positive feedbacks in the ice-climate system. How fast and how much Antarctica will contribute to sea level remains uncertain, but multimeter sea level rise is likely for a mean global temperature increase of around 2°C above preindustrial levels on multicentennial time scales, or sooner for unmitigated scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Southeast Greenland has been a major participant in the ice sheet mass loss over the last several decades. Interpreting the evolution of glacier fronts requires information about their depth below sea level and ocean thermal forcing, which are incompletely known in the region. Here, we combine airborne gravity and multibeam echo sounding data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Oceans Melting Greenland (OMG) mission with ocean probe and fishing boat depth data to reconstruct the bathymetry extending from the glacier margins to the edges of the continental shelf. We perform a three‐dimensional inversion of the gravity data over water and merge the solution with a mass conservation reconstruction of bed topography over land. In contrast with other parts of Greenland, we find few deep troughs connecting the glaciers to the sources of warm Atlantic Water, amidst a relatively uniform, shallow (350 m) continental shelf. The deep channels include the Kangerlugssuaq, Sermilik, Gyldenløve, and Tingmiarmiut Troughs. Key Points: A multisensor approach resolves the bathymetry on the continental shelf and glacial fjords of southeast GreenlandFew deep or complex networks of troughs connect the glaciers to the sources of warm Atlantic Water; that is, access to ocean heat is limitedThe new bathymetry helps interpret the past and recent evolution of southeast Greenland glaciers and contribution to sea level rise [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Geologic archives constraining the variability of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) during the Holocene provide targets for ice sheet models to test sensitivities to variations in past climate and model formulation. Even as data–model comparisons are becoming more common, many models simulating the behavior of the GrIS during the past rely on meshes with coarse horizontal resolutions (≥10 km). In this study, we explore the impact of model resolution on the simulated nature of retreat across southwestern Greenland during the Holocene. Four simulations are performed using the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM): three that use a uniform mesh and horizontal mesh resolutions of 20, 10, and 5 km, and one that uses a nonuniform mesh with a resolution ranging from 2 to 15 km. We find that the simulated retreat can vary significantly between models with different horizontal resolutions based on how well the bed topography is resolved. In areas of low topographic relief, the horizontal resolution plays a negligible role in simulated differences in retreat, with each model instead responding similarly to retreat driven by surface mass balance (SMB). Conversely, in areas where the bed topography is complex and high in relief, such as fjords, the lower-resolution models (10 and 20 km) simulate unrealistic retreat that occurs as ice surface lowering intersects bumps in the bed topography that would otherwise be resolved as troughs using the higher-resolution grids. Our results highlight the important role that high-resolution grids play in simulating retreat in areas of complex bed topography, but also suggest that models using nonuniform grids can save computational resources through coarsening the mesh in areas of noncomplex bed topography where the SMB predominantly drives retreat. Additionally, these results emphasize that care must be taken with ice sheet models when tuning model parameters to match reconstructed margins, particularly for lower-resolution models in regions where complex bed topography is poorly resolved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marine-terminating glaciers and ice streams are important controls of ice sheet mass balance. However, understanding of their long-term response to external forcing is limited by relatively short observational records of present-day glaciers and sparse geologic evidence for paleo-glaciers. Here we use a high-resolution ice sheet model with an accurate representation of grounding line dynamics to study the deglaciation of the marine-based south-western Norwegian sector of the Scandinavian Ice Sheet and its sensitivity to ocean and atmosphere forcing. We find that the regional response to a uniform climate change is highly dependent on the local bedrock topography, consistent with ice sheet reconstructions. Our simulations suggest that ocean warming is able to trigger initial retreat in several fjords, but is not sufficient to explain retreat everywhere. Widespread retreat requires additional ice thinning driven by surface melt. Once retreat is triggered, the underlying bedrock topography and fjord width control the rate and extent of retreat, while multi-millennial changes over the course of deglaciation are modulated by surface melt. We suggest that fjord geometry, ice-ocean interactions and grounding line dynamics are vital controls of decadal-to centennial scale ice sheet mass loss. However, we postulate that atmospheric changes are the most important drivers of widespread ice sheet demise, and will likely trump oceanic influence on future ice sheet mass loss and resulting sea level rise over centennial and longer time scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Subglacial hydrology has a strong influence on glacier and ice sheet dynamics, particularly through the dependence of sliding velocity on subglacial water pressure. Significant challenges are involved in modeling subglacial hydrology, as the drainage geometry and flow mechanics are constantly changing, with complex feedbacks that play out between water and ice. A clear tradition has been established in the subglacial hydrology modeling literature of distinguishing between channelized (efficient) and sheetlike (inefficient or distributed) drainage systems or components and using slightly different forms of the governing equations in each subsystem to represent the dominant physics. Specifically, many previous subglacial hydrology models disregard opening by melt in the sheetlike system or redistribute it to adjacent channel elements in order to avoid runaway growth that occurs when it is included in the sheetlike system. We present a new subglacial hydrology model, SHAKTI (Subglacial Hydrology and Kinetic, Transient Interactions), in which a single set of governing equations is used everywhere, including opening by melt in the entire domain. SHAKTI employs a generalized relationship between the subglacial water flux and the hydraulic gradient that allows for the representation of laminar, turbulent, and transitional regimes depending on the local Reynolds number. This formulation allows for the coexistence of these flow regimes in different regions, and the configuration and geometry of the subglacial system evolves naturally to represent sheetlike drainage as well as systematic channelized drainage under appropriate conditions. We present steady and transient example simulations to illustrate the features and capabilities of the model and to examine sensitivity to mesh size and time step size. The model is implemented as part of the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Identifying fast and robust numerical solvers is a critical issue that needs to be addressed in order to improve projections of polar ice sheets evolving in a changing climate. This work evaluates the impact of using advanced numerical solvers for transient ice-flow simulations conducted with the JPL–UCI Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM). We identify optimal numerical solvers by testing a broad suite of readily available solvers, ranging from direct sparse solvers to preconditioned iterative methods, on the commonly used Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for Higher-Order ice sheet Models benchmark tests. Three types of analyses are considered: mass transport, horizontal stress balance, and incompressibility. The results of the fastest solvers for each analysis type are ranked based on their scalability across mesh size and basal boundary conditions. We find that the fastest iterative solvers are  ∼ 1.5–100 times faster than the default direct solver used in ISSM, with speed-ups improving rapidly with increased mesh resolution. We provide a set of recommendations for users in search of efficient solvers to use for transient ice-flow simulations, enabling higher-resolution meshes and faster turnaround time. The end result will be improved transient simulations for short-term, highly resolved forward projections (10–100 year time scale) and also improved long-term paleo-reconstructions using higher-order representations of stresses in the ice. This analysis will also enable a new generation of comprehensive uncertainty quantification assessments of forward sea-level rise projections, which rely heavily on ensemble or sampling approaches that are inherently expensive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding of long-term dynamics of glaciers and ice caps is vital to assess their recent and future changes, yet few long-term reconstructions using ice flow models exist. Here we present simulations of the maritime Hardangerjøkulen ice cap in Norway from the mid-Holocene through the Little Ice Age (LIA) to the present day, using a numerical ice flow model combined with glacier and climate reconstructions. In our simulation, under a linear climate forcing, we find that Hardangerjøkulen grows from ice-free conditions in the mid-Holocene to its maximum extent during the LIA in a nonlinear, spatially asynchronous fashion. During its fastest stage of growth (2300-1300 BP), the ice cap triples its volume in less than 1000 years. The modeled ice cap extent and outlet glacier length changes from the LIA until today agree well with available observations. Volume and area for Hardangerjøkulen and several of its outlet glaciers vary out-of-phase for several centuries during the Holocene. This volume-area disequilibrium varies in time and from one outlet glacier to the next, illustrating that linear relations between ice extent, volume and glacier proxy records, as generally used in paleoclimatic reconstructions, have only limited validity. We also show that the present-day ice cap is highly sensitive to surface mass balance changes and that the effect of the ice cap hypsometry on the mass balance-altitude feedback is essential to this sensitivity. A mass balance shift by +0.5mw.e. relative to the mass balance from the last decades almost doubles ice volume, while a decrease of 0.2mw.e. or more induces a strong mass balance-altitude feedback and makes Hardangerjøkulen disappear entirely. Furthermore, once disappeared, an additional +0.1mw.e. relative to the present mass balance is needed to regrow the ice cap to its present-day extent. We expect that other ice caps with comparable geometry in, for example, Norway, Iceland, Patagonia and peripheral Greenland may behave similarly, making them particularly vulnerable to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Identifying fast and robust numerical solvers is a critical issue that needs to be addressed in order to improve projections of polar ice sheets evolving in a changing climate. This work evaluates the impact of using sophisticated numerical solvers for transient ice flow simulations using the NASA-JPL/UCI Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM). We identify optimal numerical solvers by testing them on a commonly used ice flow benchmark test, the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for Higher-Order ice sheet Models (ISMIP-HOM) Experiment F. Three types of analyses are considered: mass transport, horizontal stress balance, and vertical stress balance. A broad suite of solvers is tested, ranging from direct sparse solvers to preconditioned iterative methods. The results of the fastest solvers for each analysis type are ranked based on their scalability across mesh size for each basal sliding conditions specified in Experiment F. We find that the fastest iterative solvers are ~1.5-100 times faster than the default direct solver used in ISSM with speed-ups improving rapidly with increased mesh resolution. We provide a set of recommendations for users in search of efficient solvers to use for transient ice flow simulations, enabling higher-resolution meshes and faster turnaround time. The end result will be improved transient simulations for short-term, highly resolved forward projections (10-100 year time scale) and also improved long-term paleo-reconstructions using higher-order representation of stresses in the ice. This analysis will also enable a new generation of comprehensive uncertainty quantification assessments of forward sea-level rise projections, which rely heavily on ensemble or sampling approaches that are inherently expensive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]